Business

With the recent news of slowing streaming growth in the U.S. and declining global revenue growth in recorded music, one might think the trends could have a negative impact on the market for publishing and recorded music catalogs.
Think again. For a handful of reasons, industry insiders who spoke to Billboard don’t believe the slowdown will have much — if any — effect on the continually brisk business in music intellectual property rights. Subscription revenue, which accounted for roughly 66% of U.S. revenue and approximately 51% of global revenue in 2024, according to the RIAA and IFPI, respectively, will continue to grow in mature markets and elsewhere.

“I don’t think the numbers that we’ve seen are enough to make any [music investors] worry too much,” says MIDiA Research’s Mark Mulligan. “I know that a lot of these funds have seen our numbers, and our numbers are relatively cautious about the outlook. We’re not bearish, but we’re not bullish either.”

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Numerous people pointed to Goldman Sachs’ estimates — a closely watched music forecast that remains something of a gold standard in the business — that both global recorded music and publishing revenue will grow at approximately 8% annually through 2030. What’s more, equity analysts seem comfortable with Universal Music Group’s forecast of 8-10% subscription growth through 2028.

In mature markets, future growth will come from higher prices after more than a decade of unchanged subscription fees. “We’ve all gotten comfortable with getting music at what I believe to be a subsidized rate versus its value,” says Jeremy Tucker, founder/managing member of Raven Music Partners, an investor in music catalogs. That subsidy is an underpricing of music subscriptions in order to attract new customers and help platforms achieve scale. Now that there are 818 million global subscribers, according to MIDiA Research, labels and streaming services seem intent on getting more from each subscriber.

Many streaming services raised their prices in 2022 and 2023, and Spotify raised prices in a few markets in 2024. Major labels that have renewed their licensing agreements with Spotify suggested the deals allow for higher-priced superfan tiers. Additionally, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said at a March 10 banking conference that “there’s quite strong evidence that there’s a lot of room to grow on pricing, especially in … mature markets.” All of this means there will be more value coming to rights holders, says Tucker, who looks at a lengthy time horizon, not any single year’s results, when considering potential gains. “We think there’s going to be growth over the medium to long term. But, in any given year, the actual growth is not something I’m too worried about.”

Additionally, people expect rights holders will extract more value from catalogs through better blocking and tackling. While companies focused on subscriber growth over the last 15 years, the next era will be marked by better execution, says a person in the music investment field. Artificial intelligence, this person says, can help rights owners expand the global reach of their music by creating versions in multiple foreign languages at little cost. AI can also make royalty collection more effective and cost-efficient. These wins may not have the appeal of, say, a biopic that boosts an artist’s catalog. But from a financial point of view, expanding a song’s reach and cutting costs serve the buyer’s core mission of improving the return on investment.

While U.S. growth slows, much of the world is growing quickly, and Western companies that focus on English-language repertoire face a “bleak” future as emerging markets outpace markets where English-language music is most popular, says Mulligan. As a result, companies that failed to invest a decade ago are playing catch-up in markets dominated by local music. “What they should have done is started signing loads of artists [in emerging markets] 10 to 15 years ago,” Mulligan says.

Still, there’s opportunity in emerging countries and their local repertoire. Subscription penetration rates — the ratio of subscribers to the country’s adult population — are a good proxy for a country’s potential, explains Mulligan. Developed markets like the U.S. and U.K. have penetration rates in the high 40 percent, according to MIDiA’s latest data. Elsewhere, lower penetration rates suggest subscription revenue will increase down the road and, as a result, the local music business infrastructure will grow over time. Poland’s subscription penetration rate, in contrast, is 17%, Brazil’s is 16% and China’s is 13%. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country, has a 1.8% penetration rate. India, the world’s second-largest country, has a penetration rate of just 1.3%.

Low penetration rates correspond with growth potential, as streaming platforms help fuel infrastructure growth and subscription adoption adds more value to the market. “You get this virtuous circle of influence,” Mulligan explains, “where if you establish the infrastructure to create an audience, that creates the virtuous circle of investment, where people start setting up labels, people start being able to have their careers as artists, they create more music, more of that music exports, and the impact on the global market increases. India is maybe a third of the way along in the journey, whereas Indonesia has not even got started.”