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Live Nation shares gained 4.0% to hit $103.77 this week, marking the stock’s best closing price since May 2, 2022, and the first time the concert promotion giant had five straight closes above $100 since late April and early May that same year.
Other music stocks didn’t fare as well. Most of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index dropped this week, with 13 stocks losing ground and just seven finishing the week in positive territory. The index fell 0.1% to 1,697.90, marking the first time it’s decreased in successive weeks since it fell during three consecutive weeks in October 2023. Multi-week declines are rare for the index: Since the beginning of 2023, it has had just two two-week declines, two three-week declines and one four-week decline (in July and August 2023). This week’s slight drop brought the index’s year-to-date gain to 10.8%.
In a relatively quiet week free of earnings releases or market-moving news, there was roughly an even mix of gains and losses from the most valuable companies. Universal Music Group increased 2.1% to 27.32 euros ($29.77) while Spotify dropped 1.7% to $254.89 and Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 2.9% to $32.94. Elsewhere, German promoter CTS Eventim rose 2.1% to 76.70 euros ($83.56) and reached a new 52-week high of 77.80 euros ($84.76).
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K-pop companies rebounded after a string of weekly declines. HYBE improved 2.3% to 199,000 won ($149.59) and SM Entertainment climbed 2.5% to 74,900 won ($56.30). YG Entertainment jumped 6.3% to 43,050 won ($32.36) but is still down 19.6% year to date.
French indie music company Believe finished at 15.52 euros ($16.91), still well above the 15.00 euros ($16.34) tender offer by a consortium that seeks to take the company private. WMG has expressed interest in Believe at 17.00 euros ($18.52) per share.
The companies with the largest gains and losses are among the least valuable on the index. The week’s greatest gainer was Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami, which rose 15.6% to $1.11 and has a market capitalization of just $30.7 million — less than 0.1% of Spotify’s. Radio broadcast giant iHeartMedia and French music streamer Deezer had the index’s biggest losses of 10.0% and 10.3%, but iHeartMedia’s market cap is only $255 million while Deezer’s is about 245 million euros ($267 million).
The index’s four live music stocks had an average gain of 0.9% this week, topping the 0.4% gain of the seven record label and publishing stocks. Five streaming stocks averaged a less than 0.1% decline. Three radio companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM — had an average decline of 5.1%.
Key U.S. indexes also saw small declines this week. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.7% to 15,973.17. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 5,117.09. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 0.9% to 7,727.42. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.5% to 2,666.84. China’s Shanghai Composite Index grew 0.3% to 3,054.64.
Billboard Power Players is expanding to Canada for the first time in 2024, nominations have now officially opened via this nomination form.
For its relative size, the country has produced some huge international success stories over the last decade, with artists like Drake, The Weeknd, Shawn Mendes, Justin Bieber and Tate McRae making big waves on the world stage.
That’s the case behind the scenes, too, including previous Power List honourees like Kristen Burke, the president of Warner Music Canada and the only female head of a major label in Canada; Wassim “Sal” Slaiby of The Weeknd’s XO Records and the founder of Universal Arabic Music; and Michael Rapino, the Canadian-born president and CEO of Live Nation who finished fourth on the recently revealed 2024 Power 100 list, behind only Taylor Swift and the global CEOs of two major labels.
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Billboard Canada Power Players, however, will be the first time the award will be exclusive to Canadians or those who’ve made an impact in Canada’s music industry. – Richard Trapunski
New U.S. Visa Fees Could Prove Costly for Canadian Musicians
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has published its final rule updating visa fees in several categories, along with a Frequently Asked Questions page summary.
Overall, creative arts petitioners will be hit with higher costs, increased petition prep requirements, and lengthier times for premium processing. This will affect Canadian and other musicians, as well as art workers, travelling across the border to play in the U.S.
After consultation with stakeholders including the American Federation of Musicians, final fees have been reduced from the initial amounts proposed by the Department of Homeland Security for nonprofits and certain small businesses with 25 or fewer employees.
The new fees, though, could prove costly for Canadian musicians, for whom crossing the border is a necessary part of a music career.
The fee increases were originally for early 2023, but will now take effect on April 1, 2024. – David Farrell
Music Declares Emergency Will Host a Climate Summit in Halifax Ahead of the Juno Awards
Music Declares Emergency (MDE) Canada is looking to spark conversation about the climate crisis at this year’s Juno Awards. Ahead of the ceremony on March 24, the advocacy organization will host a Mini Music Climate Summit at the Halifax Central Library, on March 22, to promote the need for climate action in the music industry.
The free, one-day event will consider topics such as sustainable transportation, carbon calculation, merch and food, and much more, providing an opportunity for industry members to share best practices and develop strategies around curbing emissions in the industry. MDE Canada previously held Canada’s first Music Climate Summit in Toronto in 2022.
The climate summit accompanies MDE Canada’s Climate Emergency Concert on March 17 in Halifax, where artists like Talia Schlanger and Jenn Grant will pay tribute to Neil Young and Joni Mitchell, two Canadian musicians who have used their platforms to promote environmental awareness. – Rosie Long Decter
Last Week ‘In Canada’: No to ‘Laughs,’ But Yes to Women in Music
LONDON — Strong growth in streaming, vinyl and even CD sales saw music spending in the United Kingdom increase for a ninth consecutive year in 2023, according to annual figures from labels trade body BPI published Thursday (March 14).
Total U.K. recorded music sales — comprising digital and physical revenues, public performance rights and sync — climbed 8.1% to 1.43 billion pounds ($1.8 billion) last year.
That’s the highest nominal amount ever achieved in the U.K in one year, although when the figures are adjusted for inflation, last year’s record revenues are actually 478 million pounds ($610 million) below the 1.9 billion pounds ($2.4 billion) where the music industry should have been in real terms since 2006, the first year when public performance and sync were included in the annual total, reports BPI.
Driving the growth was an 8.4% year-on-year rise in streaming revenues, which increased to 962 million pounds ($1.2 billion) and accounted for just over 67% of annual trade revenues in 2023 — broadly flat with its share of the U.K. market in the previous 12-month period. Ten years prior, streaming represented just 8.6% of British labels’ income.
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Breaking down streaming revenue, paid subscriptions to services like Spotify and Apple Music generated 827 million pounds ($1 billion), up 8.1% on 2022, while ad-funded revenue grew by over 12% to 71 million pounds ($90 million) and video streaming trade income rose 6.9% to 64 million pounds ($82 million).
Download sales fell 5.8% to 26 million pounds ($33 million), while total digital revenue was 989 million pounds ($1.2 billion), up 7.9% on the previous year.
BPI reports that nearly 2,250 artists registered more than 10 million audio streams in the U.K. last year — a rise of 17% over the past two years — with Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” the most-streamed track, racking up almost 200 million audio and video streams. Behind Cyrus was Dave and Central Cee’s “Sprinter” (160 million streams) and “Escapism” by Raye featuring 070 Shake (142 million streams).
In terms of physical format sales, labels and artists received 243 million pounds ($310 million) in 2023, up almost 13% on 2022, when physical trade revenues dropped by a tenth.
Fueling physical’s recovery was a double-digit (18.6%) rise in vinyl album revenues, which totaled £142 million ($181 million) on the back of popular new releases by Taylor Swift, The Rolling Stones and Lana Del Rey, who had the top three best-selling vinyl titles in the U.K. last year with 1989 (Taylor’s Version), Hackney Diamonds and Did You Know There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, respectively.
More surprisingly, CD revenues also grew in 2023, up 5.4% year-on-year to just under £100 million ($127 million) with Take That’s This Life the year’s biggest-selling CD release.
Despite the compact disc’s resurgence, which BPI partly attributed to high-profile annual marketing events such as Record Store Day and National Album Day, vinyl moved further ahead as the country’s leading physical format in terms of label income, making up just over 58% of all physical music trade revenue, compared to 55% the previous year.
Public performance revenue climbed 7% year-on-year to 155 million pounds ($198 million), while sync sales dropped 7.6% to just under 40 million pounds ($51 million).
BPI’s year-end figures differ from those released by the Digital Entertainment and Retail Association (ERA) in January as the two organizations have different counting methods.
BPI’s financial figures are based on Official Charts Company (OCC) data and a survey of its record label members, which include the U.K. arms of Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment and Warner Music Group, as well as over 500 independent labels. ERA’s year-end results, which also use OCC data, also include retail value, hence the higher numbers.
The U.K. is the world’s third biggest recorded music market behind the U.S. and Japan with sales of just under $1.7 billion in trade value, according to IFPI’s 2023 Global Music Report.
“Led by streaming, this ninth consecutive annual rise in recorded music revenues highlights how a balanced and prosperous market enabled by significant label investment can help even more artists to succeed,” said BPI CEO Jo Twist in a statement.
It’s time for another spindle around the Executive Turntable, Billboard’s comprehensive(ish) compendium of promotions, hirings, exits and firings — and all things in between — across music. For a summary of all the goings-on at UMG, scroll to the bottom. For everything else, read on!
Deezer‘s search for a permanent replacement for the departing Jeronimo Folgueira is underway, but in the meantime the Paris-based streaming service has hired a ringer of sorts to keep the CEO seat warm. Stu Bergen, a 14-year veteran of Warner Music and longtime CEO of the label group’s international and global services division, has stepped in to serve as interim CEO until a new chief is found. Bergen, who left WMG in early 2021, has been a member of Deezer’s board of directors for more than a year and will remain there after the executive search is complete. “Stu’s in-depth knowledge of the music and digital industries, coupled with his tenure as a director on Deezer’s board, positions him perfectly to boost the company’s strategic direction and facilitate a seamless transition,” the company said this week, adding it believes Bergen is perfectly suited to guide them in its international expansion and boosting subscribers in key markets. The company recently posted positive financial results for 2023, with revenue up 7.4% to $524 million and an 11.5% increase in subscribers (thanks to business-to-business partnerships).
”I am honored to accept the interim CEO role at Deezer at this pivotal time,” Bergen said. “I am committed to strengthening the company’s values and driving its growth trajectory forward. With the dedicated team and clear objectives already in place, I am eager to lead us through this period of transition, ensuring the company is prepared for its ambitious future.”
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Merlin, the digital music licensing go-to for indies everywhere, announced an expansive run of promotions and role tweaks at the company. Over on the member and partner success teams, Emma Robinson ascends to senior director of member operations after six years of service; Daniele Yandel was promoted to senior manager of member operations after four years; four-year veteran Jo Danher is now senior manager of member relations; and Poppy Waring (seven years) and Shannon Bradley (three) both step up to senior manager of commercial partnerships. As for the finance fam, Vincent Moyo is promoted to director of commercial finance, four years in; Grace Styles approaches her three-year mark with a promotion to management accountant; Savannah Puleston bumps up to operations and events coordinator, nearly two years after joining Merlin. Did someone say data? Mili Payne (two years) is elevated to senior royalty coordinator and Tom White has been named senior coordinator of business analytics in Merlin’s reporting and insights team. Finally, Tolis Koutronas was elevated to senior developer of technology and business solutions, rewarding four years of enhancing Merlin’s infrastructure, while four-year staffer Katie Eckett is now senior manager of business and legal affairs.
NAMM, aka the National Association of Music Merchants, appointed AJ Zane as the trade org’s new director of technology. Zane’s many duties include running point on NAMM’s product and platform technology, cybersecurity, cloud engineering, infrastructure, corporate IT and a host of other responsibilities only a “career technologist” (NAMM president/CEO John Mlynczak’s words) could muster. “He brings a diverse background and experience that align with our commitment to stay at the forefront of technology and harness its power to propel our organization into the future,” Mlynczak said. Prior to NAMM, Zane was an engineering manager at real estate data management tool Measurable and before that was a technical principal at Veyo.
Haley Evans was elevated to the role of president at Mega House Music, a songwriter-producer management company and music publisher. She has worked her way up at Mega House over the last four years, guiding the careers of writing talents like Casey Smith (“Moral of the Story” by Ashe, “Cool” by Jonas Brothers), Gian Stone (“Stuck With You” by Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande), Caroline Pennell (“Past Life” by Trevor Daniel and Selena Gomez, “Everytime I Cry” by Ava Max), and Peter Fenn (“Nathan (still breathing)” by Fred Again.., “Slow Down” by Laufey). Evans also works across the Mega House’s full roster, helping with Monsters & Strangerz, Joe London, Sol Was and others. She manages rising folk artist Mon Rovia as well and has played a meaningful role in the company’s expansion into Nashville and Miami. In her new role, she will continue to report to co-CEOs David Silberstein and Jeremy Levin. –Kristin Robinson
Academy Music Group (AMG) appointed Liam Boylan as chief executive officer of the UK venue owner and operator. AMG’s roster of medium-sized venues across the country include O2 Victoria Warehouse in Manchester, O2 Academy Birmingham and the soon-to-reopen O2 Academy Brixton. Boylan was previously stadium director at the legendary Wembley Stadium, and prior to that worked for years at SJM Concerts and Manchester Arena. “We’re delighted to welcome Liam to the AMG team and look forward to working with him,” said Denis Desmond, chairman of AMG. “He has a wealth of knowledge and experience in the live industry and running major events. He will be a great asset.”
Concord Music Publishing hired Lüder Castringius for the newly created position of senior vp of legal and business affairs across Germany, Switzerland and Austria (GSA). In his new role, Castringius will play a “central role” in bolstering Concord’s interests in the sprawling region, remarked Duff Berschback, evp of legal and business affairs, who added: “The decision to create this position demonstrates our commitment to top-tier legal counsel and underscores our efforts to meet the rapidly evolving demands of the music market.” The Berlin-based exec arrives from BMG, where he rose to senior vp of business and legal affairs EU during a 15-year run at the company. Castringius reports directly to Berschback, who is based in Nashville, but will also work closely with Tina Funk, managing director of Concord Music Publishing, GSA. “We appreciate his sensitivity, his fighting spirit, and his commitment to shaping the character and roster of the publishing house… and ensuring the protection of our creators’ rights,” Funk said.
RADIO, RADIO: Audacy announced that svp of digital audio content Tim Clarke will depart at the end of the month, with his role — leading consumer-facing properties such as Audacy.com and the company’s radio app — being phased out and duties folded into other teams. Clarke joined Audacy in March 2021 as svp of market manager before quickly ascending to his current position. Prior to Audacy, he spent 12 years at Cox Media, rising to vp of audience and content for his last three. In a staff memo obtained by Radio Insight, chief digital officer J.D. Crowley called Clarke a “wonderful creative executive, a great friend and colleague to so many of us.”
Big Loud Rock, which specializes in big loud rock records, upped its visual marketing game with the appointment of Paul Wright as vp of creative strategy. Based in Los Angeles, he reports up to Lloyd Norman, svp of BLR, which is the alt-rock imprint of Big Loud Records. Wright joins from Red Bull Records, where as director of creative marketing he worked with Blxst, Albert Hammond Jr, AWOLNATION and others on tailored content. Prior to RBR, Wright racked up time at Nettwerk Music Group and Hopeless Records. Elsewhere at BLR, recent new hires and promotions include Dave Barbis as svp of promotion, Nicole Rich as director of promotion & publicity, Delaine Halpin as project marketing manager, Colleen Kennedy as operations manager and Bella DiDomenico as executive assistant to BLR president Greg Thompson. “We are thrilled to have an executive like Paul join the Big Loud Rock team and also to recognize the growth of our staff and the overall team building Big Loud Rock,” Thompson said.
Absolute Label Services added three new members to its London-based team. Joining as senior label manager is Dominic Squire, most recently senior international marketing manager at BMG. The independent services company also welcomed Jimmy Smith, formerly of Platoon, as a campaign coordinator. Finally, Finn Peat is now part of ALS’ digital right team in his first music industry gig.
Outback Presents promoted Fallon Nell to vp of booking, overseeing all Outback artist bookings for country, comedy and music events. Nell launched her career at Outback as the company’s first intern, before joining as a promoter representative in the company’s comedy department. She later transitioned to artist management at Alliance Artists (now Red Light Management Atlanta) before launching Brothers Management. Nell returned to Outback Presents in 2023, serving as senior booking manager. –Jessica Nicholson
NASHVILLE NOTES: Music City-based executive Kelly Bolton joined Warner Records as vp of A&R, focusing on country but reporting to Warner Records’ LA-based CEO Aaron Bay-Schuck. She arrives after more than five years at Tape Room Music, where she served as svp of A&R … Black River Records elevated Bill Mackay to vp of national promotion. Mackay joined the label in 2012 after more than 30 years in the industry, including stops at MCA, Sony and Stroudavarious Records, plus 16 years as a country radio programmer in markets including Pittsburgh, San Jose and San Diego. Congratulate Mackay at bmacky@blackriverent.com.
Creative Artists Agency (CAA) welcomed Julian Teixeira to the family as an agent in the music touring department. He arrives from The Bullitt Agency and brings a client roster that includes Dubfire, Chris Stussy, Dennis Cruz and Kölsch, among other. The George Washington University grad is based in CAA’s. New York offices.
ICYMI:
Following the curtain-raising of the Interscope Capitol Labels Group, chairman/CEO John Janick (pictured) announced more additions to his C-suite team (namely Gary Kelly and Jason Kawejsza), and a few days later fleshed out the structure of the new company … then UMG’s more East Coast-y labels reorganized under the new Republic Corps banner under Monte Lipman … and finally a member of the Corps, Mercury, announced several promotions and hires.
Last Week’s Turntable: Warner Chappell’s China Role
Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that he will put together an investor group to buy TikTok after the House passed a bill that would ban the popular video app in the U.S. if its China-based owner does not sell its stake.
During an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Mnuchin, who served under President Donald Trump, said he had spoken “to a bunch of people” about creating an investor group that would purchase the popular social media company. He offered no details about who may be in the group or about TikTok’s possible valuation.
“This should be owned by U.S. businesses,” Mnuchin said. “There’s no way that the Chinese would ever let a U.S. company own something like this in China.”
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TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The House bill, passed by a vote of 352-65, now goes to the Senate, where its prospects are unclear. Lawmakers in the Senate have indicated that the measure will undergo a thorough review. If it passes in the Senate, President Joe Biden has said he will sign it.
House lawmakers acted on concerns that TikTok’s current ownership structure is a national security threat. Lawmakers from both parties and administration officials have voiced concerns that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, could be compelled by Chinese authorities to hand over data on American users, spread pro-Beijing propaganda or suppress topics unfavorable to the Chinese government.
TikTok, for its part, has long denied that it could be used as a tool of Chinese authorities. The company insists it has never shared U.S. user data with the Chinese government and will not do so if asked. To date, the U.S. government also has not provided evidence that shows TikTok shared such information with authorities in China.
The White House had no immediate reaction Thursday to Mnuchin’s potential bid for TikTok.
“We’re still focused on continuing to work, providing some technical support and assistance to Congress, as this bill, which just passed the House, moves on to the Senate,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said when asked about whether the Mnuchin consortium could assuage the administration’s national security concerns about TikTok.
“There is an ongoing legislative process for that. We obviously want to see the Senate take it up swiftly and we’re focused on making sure we’re providing them the context and information we believe is important so that this bill can actually do and address the national security concerns that we have with respect to TikTok.”
The fight over the platform takes place as U.S.-China relations have shifted into strategic rivalry, especially in areas such as advanced technology and data security, seen as essential to each country’s economic prowess and national security.
If passed and signed into law, the House bill would give ByteDance 180 days to sell the platform to a buyer that satisfies the U.S. government. It would also require the company to give up control of the TikTok algorithm that feeds users videos based off their preferences.
In addition to Mnuchin, some other investors, including “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary, have voiced interest in buying TikTok’s U.S. business. But experts have said it could be challenging for ByteDance to sell the platform to a buyer who could afford it in a few months.
Big tech companies are best positioned to make such a purchase, but they would likely face intense scrutiny from antitrust regulators, which Mnuchin emphasized.
“I don’t think this should be controlled by any of the big U.S. tech companies. I think there could be antitrust issues on that,” he said during the interview. “This should be something that’s independent so we have a real competitor. And users love it, so it shouldn’t be shut down.”
He also said the app would need to be rebuilt in the U.S. with new technology.
In many ways, social media companies have become battlegrounds for partisan disagreements about how to control disinformation while protecting free speech. Mnuchin’s effort to buy TikTok comes as Trump and his allies have long complained about what they see as social media muzzling conservative voices.
Trump himself has voiced opposition to the House bill, saying that a ban on TikTok would help its rival, Facebook, which he continues to lambast over his 2020 election loss. Some other Republicans who oppose the bill say the U.S. should simply tell Americans about the security concerns with TikTok, but let them decide if they want to use the platform.
Meanwhile, some Democrats have expressed concern about singling out one company when other social media platforms also collect vast amounts of data on users. Opponents of the bill also say it would disrupt the lives of content creators who rely on the platform for income and run afoul of the First Amendment, which protects free speech.
This isn’t the first time a TikTok sale has been in play.
When Mnuchin was Treasury secretary, the Trump administration brokered a deal in 2020 that would have had U.S. corporations Oracle and Walmart take a large stake in TikTok on national security grounds.
The deal would have also made Oracle responsible for hosting all TikTok’s U.S. user data and securing computer systems to ensure national security requirements are satisfied. Microsoft also made a failed bid for TikTok that its CEO, Satya Nadella, later described as the “strangest thing” he had ever worked on.
Instead of congressional action, the 2020 arrangement was in response to a series of executive actions by Trump targeting TikTok.
But the sale never went through for a number of reasons. Trump’s executive orders got held up in court as the 2020 presidential election loomed. China also imposed stricter export controls on its technology providers.
LONDON (AP) — Adidas said Wednesday that it’s donated or is planning to give away more than $150 million to groups fighting antisemitism and other forms of hate from the sales of Yeezy shoes last year after it severed ties with Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West.
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The German sportswear brand had 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) worth of popular Yeezy sneakers piled up in warehouses after it broke off its partnership with Ye in October 2022 over his antisemitic and other offensive comments on social media and in interviews.
Adidas decided to sell some of the remaining shoes in batches, with two releases last year and another that launched late last month, and donate a portion of the proceeds to anti-hate groups.
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The company has made donations to the Anti-Defamation League and the Philonise & Keeta Floyd Institute for Social Change, run by social justice advocate Philonise Floyd, the brother of George Floyd.
Net sales of what’s left of Adidas’ former banner line of sneakers brought in about 750 million euros last year, compared with over 1.2 billion euros in 2022, the company reported.
Of the 300 million-euro profit it earned from the sales of Yeezy shoes last year, the company said it had given away or planned to donate over 140 million euros (about $152 million).
Adidas said deciding to sell a big chunk of its Yeezy inventory and improved operations helped it pull out operating profit of 268 million euros last year, a nearly 60% plunge from the previous year. It blamed a high tax rate for ending the year with a net loss of 58 million euros, a massive turnaround from net income of 254 million euros in 2022.
“Although by far not good enough, 2023 ended better than what I had expected at the beginning of the year,” said CEO Bjørn Gulden, who took over the top job last year.
Looking forward, Adidas expects to make about 250 million euros in sales of the remaining Yeezy shoes this year.
But the Herzogenaurach, Germany-based company points to North America as a persistent problem spot, expecting revenue to decline in the mid-single digits this year and grow everywhere else. It said that North America was “particularly affected by the negative Yeezy impact” and that revenue there dropped 16% last year.
Adidas expects to almost double operating profit to about 500 million euros this year despite “macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical tensions.” It plans to further scale up popular shoe lines like Samba that are seeing “extraordinary demand,” launch new ones and get a boost from major sports events like the Paris Olympics this summer.
Adidas shares were up slightly in late morning trading.
Believe benefitted from geographical expansion and strong streaming growth to post revenue of 880.3 million euros ($952.8 million at the average exchange rate) in 2023, up 15.7% from the prior year, the company announced Wednesday (Mar. 13). Organic growth was 14.4%, matching the guidance the company provided in October of organic growth exceeding 14%. After adjusting for foreign currency headwinds, Believe’s adjusted organic growth rate was 19.5% in 2023 and 21.8% in the fourth quarter.
The current growth rate should extend into the current year. Believe expects to achieve organic revenue growth in excess of 20% in 2024, adjusted to 18% to account for expected foreign currency headwinds. That high growth rate stems from a healthy paid streaming market and the belief that the ad-supported streaming market will rebound in the second half of the year. Believe also expects to make market share gains, especially in countries where it is not yet a top three company for local artists.
In 2023, Believe was helped by price increases at music streaming services in 2023 — Amazon Music in January, Spotify in July and Deezer in November. The company had market share gains in all key countries and with all key digital service providers, Xaiver Dumont, chief financial and operating officer, said during Wednesday’s earnings call.
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Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EDITDA) of 50.3 million euros ($54.4 million) was up 45%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 5.7%, surpassing guidance of at least 5.5%. Free cash flow was -3.1 million euros (-$3.4 million), although free cash flow turned positive in the second half of the year.
The earnings release arrived as Believe is the subject of a bid to be taken private by a consortium led by CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and investment firms EQT X and TCV. Warner Music Group (WMG) revealed last week that it’s interested in pursuing Believe and willing to beat the consortium’s offer. Believe’s executives did not address questions about the take-private bid during Wednesday’s earnings call, however.
The publicly traded French music company’s business model is built around helping to develop artists and using digital marketing and distribution to impact local charts. That approach is increasingly relevant when any artist can go viral on social media. Case in point: Believe landed a hit in 2023 when a 2022 single, “Si No Estás’” by Iñigo Quintero, become a TikTok hit in Spain before topping charts in France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Austria and Belgium. “These success at the top are being achieved in a wider variety of genres of music” including hip-hop, pop and metal, Ladegaillerie said during the earnings call.
Believe also landed 42 albums in the top 200 in its home country and 48 singles in the Top 100 in its second-largest market, Germany. In the United Kingdom, consumption was up 394%. In China, Believe expanded to 80 staffers in five offices that serve 300 record labels. In India, where Believe acquired White Hill Music’s catalog in December, the company had 66 songs on local charts.
Revenue in France, where Believe is in the top three recorded music companies for local artists, rose 14.9% to 147.8 million euros ($160 million). Revenue in Germany dropped 2.4% to 110.9 million euros ($120 million), while revenue in Europe, excluding France and Germany, rose 25.9% to 264.6 million euros ($286.2 million). The Americas accounted for 128.1 million euros ($138.7 million), up 17.4% on strength in Brazil and Mexico. Asia-Pacific and Africa contributed 228.9 million euros ($247.8 million), up 14.9%, with China and Japan being particularly strong. India and Southeast Asia grew at slower paces due to those regions being affected by weakness in the ad-supported streaming market.
Revenue for the company’s premium solutions division rose 15.8% to 825.1 million euros ($893.1 million), while the division’s adjusted EBITDA improved 16.8% to 118.3 million euros ($128 million). Premium solutions mainly consists of the sale, promotion, marketing and delivery of digital content for artists and labels. It also includes some physical sales, synchronization services, neighboring rights and music publishing.
In the automated solutions division, revenue increased 14.6% to 55.2 million euros ($59.7 million), and adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to 10.1 million euros ($10.9 million). The slower growth rate was expected, said Dumont, because of lower ad-supported monetization and a new TuneCore pricing structure launched in 2022 that led to lower average revenue per client and was “not yet compensated by the ramp-up in new clients.”
Ladegaillerie has formed a consortium with two of its shareholders, investment firms EQT X and TCV, to take the company private at 15 euros ($16.43) per share. That offer ran into competition last week when WMG revealed its interest in Believe and said it might be willing to pay at least 17 euros ($18.62) per share. The consortium has attempted to speed the process and waive the board’s condition that an independent expert provide a report to Believe’s ad-hoc committee on the offer’s fairness from a financial viewpoint. The parties are now waiting for French financial regulators to say if the consortium can unilaterally waive the independent expert’s report and whether WMG’s preliminary proposal prevents the waiver of the board’s condition.
When the board of directors at Hipgnosis Songs Fund (HSF) cut the value of the company’s catalog by 26% last week, it admitted something investors had long believed. Although the London-listed royalty fund had amassed an enviable collection of songs since going public in 2018, changes in market conditions and the very nature of some of those rights may have merited a significantly lower fair value all along.
A new valuation by Shot Tower Capital put the portfolio of music rights — which includes Neil Young, Shakira and Red Hot Chili Peppers, among other A-list artists and songwriters — at $1.8 billion to $2.06 billion. As recently as Sept. 30, the catalog was given a fair value of $2.62 billion by HSF’s longtime valuation expert, Citrin Cooperman (previously Massarky Consulting). Six months earlier, it was said to be worth $2.8 billion.
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HSF’s new board of directors hired Shot Tower in the wake of investors’ Oct. 26 votes against continuation and a partial catalog sale — effectively a vote of no confidence in both the previous board and the investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management. Shot Tower will give HSF’s board its final due diligence by Mar. 25, and HSF will provide an update on those findings by Mar. 29.
Some longtime critics of HSF’s previous valuation found validation in Shot Tower’s lower number. Stifel analysts claimed the new number shows HSF “clearly overpaid for catalogs,” they wrote in a Mar. 4 investor note. To date, HSF has spent about $2.2 billion on acquisitions. It raised over 1.3 billion pounds ($1.67 billion) from an IPO and seven successive offerings and has drawn $604 million from a revolving credit facility.
Such a large decline in the valuation suggests the various experts had differing opinions on both the catalog’s revenues and the riskiness of those revenues. Shot Tower calculated HSF’s net revenue after third-party royalties and administration expenses at $121.7 million for the 12-month period ended June 30. The accounting firm BDO calculated a similar amount — $119.4 million for the 12-month period ended Sept. 30 — for a quality of earnings analysis.
The higher $2.62 billion valuation appears to be based on a higher annual net revenue. A July 2023 investor presentation put HSF’s annual revenue at $134 million (based on a $2.8 billion portfolio fair value and an implied historic net publishers share, or NPS, multiple of 20.89). That’s $12.3 million more than Shot Tower’s figure and $14 million more than BDO’s estimate. The difference in annual revenues, however, only explains part of the difference in valuations.
The discount rate appears to have also played a major role in HSF’s lower valuation. Shot Tower used a weighted average discount rate of 9.63% for the entire catalog, more than 1.1 percentage points higher than the discount rate used for previous valuations. Experts Billboard spoke with called the rate “on the high side” and “a particularly high number.” Some other recent valuations used a lower discount rate. Discount rates and valuations are inversely related: A higher discount rate will produce a lower present value of cash flows, and vice versa.
Until this week, HSF had been valued using an 8.5% discount rate since the Sept. 30, 2020, valuation conducted by Citrin Cooperman. FTI Consulting’s valuation of a Kobalt portfolio used in an asset-backed security (ABS) offering in February used an 8.5% discount rate for songs older than 18 months (and 11.75% for songs aged 3 to 18 months). FTI’s valuation of the portfolio behind Concord’s $1.65 billion ABS used an 8.25% discount rate for catalog songs (and 11.75% for recorded music frontline content and options for future releases).
The HSF discount rate has been a point of contention amongst analysts and investors in recent years. When HSF lowered its discount rate to 8.5% in 2020, analysts complained the valuation increased even though the investment manager had not yet added value and market assumptions hadn’t changed. When interest rates started rising in 2022, analysts wondered why HSF stuck with the 8.5% discount rate.
The discount rate depends on the riskiness of those future cash flows. Perfectly safe revenue is discounted using a risk-free rate of return such as a 10-year U.S. Treasury Rate. Because no business is without risk, a company’s revenues would merit a higher rate. If a company carries debt, its borrowing cost — also more than the risk-free rate — would also be baked into the discount rate.
Shot Tower’s discount rate took a variety of factors into account, according to the press release, which could explain how it got to 9.63%. For example, Shot Tower found that 65% of HSF’s revenue derived from passive rights where the company does not control publishing, administration or licensing. In many cases, HSF owns only a songwriter’s share rather than the publisher’s share, or the producer’s royalties from a sound recording. Investors might have assumed that HSF had more control over administration, distribution and licensing: In HSF’s annual report for the year ended March 31, 2022, it said it had 100% interest ownership in 96% of the songs in its catalog (138 of the 146 catalogs).
“That control has a lot of value,” explains an industry insider. Strategic buyers — usually music publishers and record labels — will pay a premium to control a song’s administration and licensing or a recording’s distribution. Passive rights typically trade at a discount because they carry more potential risks of counterparts (co-writers, for example) and potential collection risk (as is the case when royalties are re-directed from a label rather than received from a PRO). With a writer’s share, “you’re a lot more along for the ride,” this insider says. The producer royalties that HSF acquired — such as RedOne, Jimmy Iovine and Timbaland — are also passive.
For a company looking to bolster its credibility with investors, Shot Tower’s valuation was a double-edged sword. The lower number confirmed some investors’ long-held belief that the portfolio is worth less than HSF had claimed. But the decrease in valuation further hurt HSF’s share price. Shot Tower’s lower valuation prompted HSF’s board to commit to using its cash to pay down debt rather than resume the dividend it suspended in October. So, while the lower valuation better reflected HSF’s market capitalization, the continued loss of a dividend was the likely cause behind the stock dropping 11% the day of the announcement.
03/13/2024
Billboard pays tribute to the executives, songwriters, managers, producers, promoters, radio hosts and more who passed on this year.
03/13/2024
The House on Wednesday passed a bill that would lead to a nationwide ban of the popular video app TikTok if its China-based owner doesn’t sell, as lawmakers acted on concerns that the company’s current ownership structure is a national security threat.
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The bill, passed by a vote of 352-65, now goes to the Senate, where its prospects are unclear.
TikTok, which has more than 150 million American users, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Chinese technology firm ByteDance Ltd.
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The lawmakers contend that ByteDance is beholden to the Chinese government, which could demand access to the data of TikTok’s consumers in the U.S. any time it wants. The worry stems from a set of Chinese national security laws that compel organizations to assist with intelligence gathering.
“We have given TikTok a clear choice,” said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash. “Separate from your parent company ByteDance, which is beholden to the CCP (the Chinese Communist Party), and remain operational in the United States, or side with the CCP and face the consequences. The choice is TikTok’s.
House passage of the bill is only the first step. The Senate would also need to pass the measure for it to become law, and lawmakers in that chamber indicated it would undergo a thorough review. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said he’ll have to consult with relevant committee chairs to determine the bill’s path.
President Joe Biden has said if Congress passes the measure, he will sign it.
The House vote is poised to open a new front in the long-running feud between lawmakers and the tech industry. Members of Congress have long been critical of tech platforms and their expansive influence, often clashing with executives over industry practices. But by targeting TikTok, lawmakers are singling out a platform popular with millions of people, many of whom skew younger, just months before an election.
Opposition to the bill was also bipartisan. Some Republicans said the U.S. should warn consumers if there are data privacy and propaganda concerns, while some Democrats voiced concerns about the impact a ban would have on its millions of users in the U.S., many of which are entrepreneurs and business owners.
“The answer to authoritarianism is not more authoritarianism,” said Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif. “The answer to CCP-style propaganda is not CCP-style oppression. Let us slow down before we blunder down this very steep and slippery slope.”
Ahead of the House vote, a top national security official in the Biden administration held a closed-door briefing Tuesday with lawmakers to discuss TikTok and the national security implications. Lawmakers are balancing those security concerns against a desire not to limit free speech online.
“What we’ve tried to do here is be very thoughtful and deliberate about the need to force a divestiture of TikTok without granting any authority to the executive branch to regulate content or go after any American company,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher, the bill’s author, as he emerged from the briefing.
TikTok has long denied that it could be used as a tool of the Chinese government. The company has said it has never shared U.S. user data with Chinese authorities and won’t do so if it is asked. To date, the U.S. government also has not provided any evidence that shows TikTok shared such information with Chinese authorities. The platform has about 170 million users in the U.S.
The security briefing seemed to change few minds, instead solidifying the views of both sides.
“We have a national security obligation to prevent America’s most strategic adversary from being so involved in our lives,” said Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y.
But Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., said no information has been shared with him that convinces him TikTok is a national security threat. “My opinion, leaving that briefing, has not changed at all,” he said.
“This idea that we’re going to ban, essentially, entrepreneurs, small business owners, the main way how young people actually communicate with each other is to me insane,” Garcia said.
“Not a single thing that we heard in today’s classified briefing was unique to TikTok. It was things that happen on every single social media platform,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-Calif.
Republican leaders have moved quickly to bring up the bill after its introduction last week. A House committee approved the legislation unanimously, on a 50-vote, even after their offices were inundated with calls from TikTok users demanding they drop the effort. Some offices even shut off their phones because of the onslaught.
Lawmakers in both parties are anxious to confront China on a range of issues. The House formed a special committee to focus on China-related issues. And Schumer directed committee chairs to begin working with Republicans on a bipartisan China competition bill.
Senators are expressing an openness to the bill but suggested they don’t want to rush ahead.
“It is not for me a redeeming quality that you’re moving very fast in technology because the history shows you make a lot of mistakes,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
In pushing ahead with the legislation, House Republicans are also creating rare daylight between themselves and former President Donald Trump as he seeks another term in the White House.
Trump has voiced opposition to the effort. He said Monday that he still believes TikTok poses a national security risk but is opposed to banning the hugely popular app because doing so would help its rival, Facebook, which he continues to lambast over his 2020 election loss.
As president, Trump attempted to ban TikTok through an executive order that called “the spread in the United States of mobile applications developed and owned by companies in the People’s Republic of China (China)” a threat to “the national security, foreign policy and economy of the United States.” The courts, however, blocked the action after TikTok sued, arguing such actions would violate free speech and due process rights.