Billboard Global Music Index
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iHeartMedia shares dropped 19.6% to $2.01 this week as the company warned investors of continued softness in radio advertising dollars. Fourth quarter results “will be weaker than we originally anticipated,” said CEO Bob Pittman during Thursday’s earnings call. In October, consolidated revenue was down 8% from the prior-year period. For the fourth quarter, iHeartMedia expects consolidated revenue excluding political ad revenue to decline in the low single digits.
Still, iHeartMedia’s third-quarter results were in line with previous guidance. Revenue of $953 million was down 3.6% from the prior-year period, a bit better than the guidance of a low single-digit decrease. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $204 million was within the guidance of $195 million to $205 million.
The week’s sharp decline brought iHeartMedia’s year-to-date loss to 67.2%, far deeper than the declines of broadcast radio company Cumulus Media (-21.9%) and satellite radio company SiriusXM (-20.7%). Not only has broadcast radio suffered from weak national advertising, it lacks the high growth rates of music streaming and podcasting. PwC’s latest forecasts call for U.S. radio advertising revenues to rise just 4% from 2023 to 2027 while U.S. podcast advertising — where iHeartMedia has a large footprint — will grow 41% to $2 billion.
Next year’s elections should provide a shot in the arm, though. “As we look forward to 2024, we expect to generate significantly better free cash flow driven in part by an improving macro environment, as well as the impact of political dollars,” said CFO Rich Bressler. In 2020, the company generated $167 million in political revenues, he noted.
The Billboard Global Music Index mostly held steady this week, dropping just 0.3% to 1,390.68. Of the index’s 20 stocks, seven gained this while while 13 finished in negative territory. Most stocks had low-single-digit gains or losses and iHeartMedia was the only stock with a double-digit move in either direction.
French company Believe was the index’s greatest gainer of the week after improving 7.4% to 9.93 euros ($10.64). German concert promoter CTS Eventim, which will release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 21, gained 5.5% to 62.75 euros ($67.24). Music streaming company LiveOne gained 4.7% to $1.12. Chinese music streamer Cloud Music, which has not yet announced the date of its third-quarter earnings release, gained 3.3% to 99.50 HKD ($12.74).
Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 1.5% to $35.95 after a roller-coaster week. Following the company’s Nov. 3 announcement that CFO Gautum Ranji had left the company, Sphere Entertainment shares dropped 9.6% to $32.97 on Monday. The share price fell an additional 4.5% to $31.87 on Wednesday following the quarterly earnings release. But Sphere Entertainment picked up momentum in the latter half of the week, gaining 12.8% over Thursday and Friday to close at $35.95.
U.S. stocks were broadly up this week despite news that consumer sentiment declined in November and expectations for future inflation reached their highest level since 2011. The Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% while the S&P 500 improved 1.3%. Many major U.S. tech stocks posted big gains. Microsoft hit an all-time high of $370.09 on Friday and finished the week at $369.67, up 4.8%. Apple rose 5.5% to $186.40. Amazon improved 3.6% to $143.56. Meta jumped 4.5% to $32.8.77. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.7%.
Shares of SiriusXM gained 20.1% this week following the company’s third-quarter earnings on Tuesday (Oct. 31) that showed the satellite radio company, which also owns music streamer Pandora, was more profitable despite flat revenue and small losses of self-pay satellite and Pandora subscribers.
Shares of SiriusXM rose to $4.95, its highest closing price since Aug. 3. With the help of a 155,000 increase in promotional subscribers, the company’s total satellite radio subscribers were flat at 34 million. Revenue was unchanged from a year ago at $2.27 billion, but SiriusXM’s net profit grew nearly 50% to $363 million.
Investors will be watching intently next Wednesday (Nov. 8) when SiriusXM unveils a new streaming app as well as in-car innovations and new programming. “This leading content and upcoming product upgrade will be paired with our unmatched business model, which we expect to continue delivering significant and growing free cash flow in the years ahead,” said CEO Jennifer Witz during Tuesday’s earnings call.
The 20-stock Billboard Global Music Index gained 6.9% to 1,394.40, its best week-on-week performance since the index gained 7% in the week ended Nov. 25, 2022. Last week, the index almost fell into correction territory — a 10% decline from its recent high — but this week’s gains reduced the deficit to the high of 1,447.32 (week ended July 21) to 3.7%.
Eighteen of the index’s 20 stocks finished the week in positive territory. Of the two stocks to decline this week, Hipgnosis Songs Fund dropped only 0.8% while Abu Dhabi-based Anghami fell 15.9%.
Led by SiriusXM, the index’s three radio stocks had an average weekly gain of 13.3%. iHeartRadio, the largest radio company in the United States, gained 16.8% to $2.50. The company will report quarterly earnings on Tuesday (Nov. 9). Cumulus Media shares improved 2.9% to $4.91. Additionally, the index’s four live music companies gained an average of 8%, while record labels and publishers as well as streaming companies had average one-week gains of 3.8%.
Round Hill Music Royalty Fund was removed from the index this week after the completion of its $468 million acquisition by Concord. At the acquisition price of $1.15 per share, the London-listed Round Hill Music Royalty Fund gave investors a 47.4% year-to-date return.
Stocks everywhere enjoyed a strong week as the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, leading investors to predict the central bank would forgo further rate hikes. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 5.9% and the S&P 500 gained 5.2%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 1.7%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.8%.
Live Nation shares rose 10.9% after the company’s third-quarter results on Thursday showed that the company hit all-time records in revenue and adjusted operating income (AOI). Total revenue reached $8.2 billion, up 32% year over year, and AOI rose 35% to $836 million. Ticketmaster revenue grew 57% to $833 million in the third quarter. Through mid-October, Ticketmaster sold 140 million tickets to Live Nation events — more than the 121 million sold in full-year 2022.
Even though consumers are feeling pinched by inflation, demand continues to be strong across venue sizes and geographies, according to president/CEO Michael Rapino. “I have weekly booking calls with the over 40 presidents around the world and we talk about from clubs up to stadiums and festivals,” Rapino said during Thursday’s earnings call. “We have not seen anything taper off in any sense.”
Other stocks surpassing a 10% gain were Chinese music streamer Cloud Music, which gained 12.7% to 96.35 HKD ($12.31), and New York-based Reservoir Media, which gained 12.1% to $5.95. Reservoir Media will release its latest quarterly results on Tuesday (Nov. 7).
Shares of K-pop companies sank this week following news that a member of K-pop ground EXO is leaving SM Entertainment for a different agency. According to reports, D.O. will leave SM Entertainment for a new agency being established by his longtime manager. D.O.’s contract expires in early November, SM Entertainment said in a statement, and the artist “will continue with his EXO activities with SM” but pursue acting and other activities through the new agency.
SM Entertainment shares fell 9% to 113,400 won ($83.93). Shares of YG Entertainment, home of girl group BLACKPINK, dropped 9.3% to 53,700 won ($39.74). Shares of JYP Entertainment, home of Stray Kids and Twice, plummeted 11.1% to 100,900 won ($74.67). HYBE, home to BTS and Tomorrow X Together, fell 8.2% to 224,500 won ($166.15). Shares of Kakao Corp. dropped 9.6% to 39,050 won ($28.90). Kakao and its subsidiary Kakao Entertainment own 40% of SM Entertainment’s common stock. Earlier this year, Kakao Entertainment formed a North American joint venture with SM Entertainment.
With all K-pop stocks moving in synch, investors appear to be concerned that the established agencies could be threatened by upstarts. Because Korean companies have far smaller rosters than publicly traded Western music companies such as Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and Believe, any one departure can have an outsized impact. When BTS announced it planned to go on hiatus, HYBE’s share price dropped nearly 25% the following day.
Separately, the chief investment officer of Kakao, Bae Jae-hyun, was charged with manipulating SM Entertainment’s stock price in connection with Kakao’s bidding war against HYBE over SM Entertainment in the first quarter of the year. According to Bloomberg, the executive was arrested Thursday for buying 240 billion won ($178 million) worth of SM Entertainment shares in an effort to disrupt HYBE’s tender offer.
Despite the week’s heavy losses, K-pop stocks are among the best performing music stocks in 2023. Through Friday, HYBE, SM Entertainment, YG Entertainment and JYP Entertainment have gained an average of 37.1% year to date. JYP Entertainment leads the four companies with a year-to-date improvement of 48.8%.
The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index fell 3.1% to 1,313.44, lowering its year-to-date gain to 12.5%. It was the biggest one-week drop for the index since July and just the seventh time this year the index dropped by more than 3% in a week. Losses were widespread and only four of the 21 stocks posted gains.
Stocks generally had a miserable week. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite index fell 3.2% and the S&P 500 declined 2.4%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 dropped 2.6%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index sank 3.3%. As the first wave of companies released third-quarter earnings this week, one of the standouts was Netflix. The streaming video giant gained 16.1% on Thursday after announcing it added 9 million subscribers in the quarter and will raise prices in the U.S., U.K. and France.
Anghami was the index’s greatest gainer for the second straight week after increasing 16.6% to $0.96. Last week, shares of the Abu Dhabi-based music streamer jumped 18% after the company received a written notification from the Nasdaq Stock Market on Oct. 12 regarding its closing share price falling below $1.00 for the previous 30 days. On Tuesday, Anghami issued a press release to reveal the Nasdaq Stock Market issued a written notification notifying the company it is not in compliance with the exchange’s requirement that listed companies maintain a minimum market value of $15 million. Anghami fell below the $15 million threshold from Aug. 29 to Oct. 10. Anghami has until April 8, 2024, to regain compliance.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund gained 4.9% to 0.775 GBP ($0.94) this week despite dropping 9.3% on Monday following news the company canceled a planned dividend payment. As the week progressed, the London Stock Exchange-listed company’s stock price steadily increased and was helped by the board of director’s announcement on Thursday of a strategic review to help calm investors’ nerves. After Monday’s decline, the share price rose 15.6% through Friday (Oct. 20) to reach its highest closing price since Oct. 3. At the company’s annual meeting on Oct. 26, shareholders will vote to approve a $440 million catalog sale intended to reduce the share price’s discount to Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s net asset value. Shareholders will also vote on a continuation resolution.
Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami led all music stocks this week after gaining 17.6% to $0.82. On Thursday, the company announced through an SEC filing it had received a written notification from the Nasdaq Stock Market regarding its closing share price being below $1.00 for the previous 30 days. The Nasdaq gives companies 180 days to regain compliance or face de-listing from the exchange.
The warning appeared to spur a 16.5% gain on Thursday as investors saw signs the share price won’t remain under $1. In its SEC filing, Anghami stated if the share price remains under the $1 threshold it will “consider available options to cure the deficiency,” including a reverse share split (which would increase the share price by reducing the number of shares outstanding while the market capitalization remains unchanged).
SiriusXM gained 5.7% on Friday (Oct. 13) and finished the week up 11.8%. Its $4.85 closing price was the highest for the satellite radio company since Aug. 9. The typically steady stock has fallen 17% this year as self-pay satellite radio subscribers stagnated at or around 32 million for eight straight quarters. SiriusXM will host a Nov. 8 presentation to unveil a new streaming app and preview upcoming in-car innovations and new programming.
The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.3% to 1,355.65 this week as 13 stocks were in negative territory and only eight stocks gained ground. Year to date, the index has gained 16.1%. Led by SiriusXM’s gain and a 7.6% increase from Cumulus Media, the index’s three radio stocks had an average improvement of 5.5%. Eight record labels and publishers had an average weekly gain of 0.3%. HYBE improved 6.8% while Believe climbed 3.6% and Universal Music Group added 0.6%. Streaming companies were, on average, flat this week.
Live music stocks dropped an average of 4.8%. Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 11.1%, effectively offsetting the 11% gain on Oct. 2 following U2’s debut performances at Sphere in Las Vegas. Live Nation dropped 3.9%, MSG Entertainment fell 3.5% and CTS Eventim shares fell 0.7%. If investors are curious what’s next for Sphere Entertainment, clues comes from an interview published Thursday. Executive chairman and CEO James Dolan said the company is “actively pursuing other markets” and “has six different kinds of spheres down to a 3,000-seater.” A Las Vegas-style Sphere may not work in London, where according to reports residents are concerned about the location and light pollution that could arise from a massive external display similar to the Las Vegas venue.
Music stocks underperformed numerous indexes. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 1.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 2%.
Stocks faded after the release of consumer sentiment data for October by the University of Michigan showed a decline from September based on “a substantial increase” in concerns about inflation. Expectations for inflation in one year rose from 3.2% in September to 3.8% this month. That’s the highest mark since May 2023 and substantially above the 2.3% to 3% range seen in the two years before the pandemic.
Also a factor in stock prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates one more time, according to minutes released from its September policy meeting. Interest rates have an inverse relationship with equity prices. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and cut down on corporate profits.
Live Nation, Sphere Entertainment Co. and CTS Eventim were the top three music stocks this week amidst news that consumers continue to spend despite nagging inflation and a resumption of U.S. student loan payments for millions of borrowers. Live Nation shares rose 6% to $88.00, narrowly beating Sphere Entertainment’s 5.9% gain to $39.35. German promoter and ticketing company CTS Eventim jumped 4.7% to 56.40 euros ($59.79).
Despite some economic warning signs, consumers continue to spend on experiences such as concerts, travel and luxury goods. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than in the prior-year period, according to the National Retail Federation. Many consumers are now facing the resumption of monthly student loan payments after a long grace period caused by the COVID-19 pandemic — it was one factor in retail giant Target cutting its profit forecasts in August. Gas prices are on the rise in much of the United States. Still, concert ticket sales are booming and airlines reported strong revenue this summer. More encouraging news came from Friday’s U.S. jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-farm employment rose by 336,000 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%.
It was a big week for Sphere Entertainment as its shares climbed 11.1% on Monday following U2’s opening weekend at Sphere in Las Vegas. The rave reviews and mind-blowing videos pushed Sphere Entertainment’s stock price as high as $43.59, up 17.3%, before falling 5% to $39.23 at the end of the trading day. Sphere Entertainment didn’t maintain the momentum, however, and dropped 5% from Tuesday to Friday. Still, Sphere’s opening provided a boost to the company and validated Sphere Entertainment CEO James Dolan’s vision to create a new category of venue built specifically for music. Now, investors will likely consider how many other artists have the necessarily large and fervent fan bases to book Sphere residencies and build productions worthy of Dolan’s $2.3 billion gamble.
The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index improved 2.1% to 1,373.62 as 12 stocks finished the week in positive territory. The index’s four live music companies had an average gain of 4.3%. Six streaming companies had an average gain of 1.6% while eight companies in recorded music and publishing dropped an average of 0.9% and three radio companies fell an average of 7.6%.
Music outperformed many indexes as stocks had a mixed week. In the United States, the S&P 500 improved 0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite improved 1.8%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 1.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 2.3%.
Another of the index’s more prominent components, Warner Music Group (WMG), rose 4.5% to $32.80, the fourth-largest gain of the week. WMG closed its year-to-date deficit to 6.3% after gaining 2.8% on Friday and pushing its market capitalization to nearly $17 billion. Universal Music Group improved less than 0.1%. Two K-pop companies, HYBE and SM Entertainment, fell 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.
Spotify, a major player on the index with a $31.3 billion market capitalization, improved 3.5% to $160.07 and took its year-to-date gain to 102.7%. Spotify announced on Wednesday that it’s giving subscribers in the United Kingdom and Australia up to 15 hours of audiobook streaming time per month; the allotment will roll out to U.S. subscribers later this year. Audiobooks are an integral part of Spotify’s plans to become a one-stop audio destination. The news wasn’t cause for concern that Spotify will incur a previously undisclosed expense from this streaming allotment. Guggenheim analysts wrote in a report on Tuesday that they don’t expect audiobook streaming to add to expenses and that Spotify likely built those costs into its latest guidance (which is 26% gross margin and a $45 million operating loss in the third quarter).
Three radio companies were among the four worst-performing music stocks of the week. iHeartMedia shares fell 14.2% to $2.71, bringing the year-to-date loss to 55.8%. Cumulus Media shares dropped 4.5% and SiriusXM shares fell 4.0%. The other notable decline of the week came from Hipgnosis Songs Fund, which fell a further 7.1% to 0.745 GBP ($0.91) in the wake of its Sept. 14 announcement that it will sell $465 million in catalog assets to help lift its struggling share price.
SiriusXM shares rose 11.1% to $4.52 this week following an offer from Liberty Media on Tuesday (Sept. 26) to combine its tracking stock, The Liberty SiriusXM Group, with SiriusXM’s stock to form a new public company.
Liberty Media, which owns 83% of SiriusXM’s outstanding shares, proposed a complicated transaction that would “provide value to all shareholders with a more flexible and attractive currency” in the newly formed SiriusXM stock, Liberty Media president/CEO Greg Maffei said in a statement. SiriusXM said in a statement that a special committee of its board of directors is evaluating the proposal and provided no assurance a deal would eventually happen.
The effect appeared to be a short squeeze — albeit one smaller than the instance that inflated SiriusXM’s share price by 49% in one week in July. Because SiriusXM shares are heavily shorted and have a small float, sudden demand for the stock can create large price fluctuations. SiriusXM shares rose 15% on Thursday (Sept. 28) alone, while shares of The Liberty SiriusXM Group tracking stock finished the week up 13.4%.
While overall stocks were mixed this week, music stocks performed well. The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index improved 1.1% to 1,344.99, better than the 0.1% gain eked out by the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and easily besting the S&P 500’s 1.3% loss. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dropped 1.7%. Eleven of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished the week in positive territory, eight lost ground and two were unchanged.
Helped by Deezer’s double-digit improvement, streaming stocks had an average gain of 3.1%. Chinese music streamers Cloud Music and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 6.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Spotify shares dropped 2.1% to $154.63 but have gained 95.9% year to date. LiveOne shares fell 8.6% to $0.96, marking its third successive weekly loss since spinning off its PodcastOne division. This week, Billboard reported that LiveOne took out a high-interest loan to lure UFC fighter-turned-podcaster Brendan Schaub after Kast Media failed to pay him advertising money. LiveOne agreed to acquire Kast Media in May and offered Schaub and other podcasters settlements that included a mix of cash, promissory notes and PodcastOne stock.
Music’s greatest gainer this week was French streaming company Deezer. Despite there being no news — neither a press release nor a regulatory filing — that normally leads to such a substantial change, Deezer shares rose 21.8% to 2.735 euros ($2.90), including a 14.8% gain on Thursday with one of the highest trading volumes since the company went public in September 2022. Nothing indicated the company has substantially improved its earnings outlook in recent days, but Deezer had been in the news prior to this week. Three weeks ago, Deezer announced a partnership with Universal Music Group to create a new system for calculating artist royalties; and last week, the company revealed plans to increase subscription prices for new individual and family plans in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and its largest market, France.
Live Nation shares rose 4.1% to $83.05 following news the company will help developing artists by providing a financial stipend and eliminating fees charged on merchandise sales at a number of its owned and operated clubs in the United States. Although the move will cost Live Nation money, it also comes with some strategic advantages, according to LightShed Partners analyst Brandon Ross. The decision is “great for Live Nation because it actually throws up another barrier to entry,” Ross said in the Friday (Sept. 29) episode of the LightShed podcast. “Artists are going to want to play your venue where the economics for them are better rather than somebody else’s venue.”
Shares of YG Entertainment plummeted 16.3% this week amidst speculation the agency has not renewed the contracts of the members of girl group BLACKPINK. Following a spate of reports out of South Korea, the company’s share price dropped 13.3% on Thursday (Sept. 21) and another 4.1% on Friday (Sept. 22).
On Thursday, Korean news outlet Daily Sports Seoul reported that three members of BLACKPINK — Jennie, Jisoo and Lisa — will leave YG Entertainment and spend just six months out of the year as part of the group. In response to that report and the flurry of media attention that followed, YG Entertainment issued a brief statement: “Currently, BLACKPINK’s contract renewal has not been confirmed and is being discussed.”
BLACKPINK became the first K-pop girl group to play Coachella in 2019 and headlined the festival in 2023. The quartet was also the first K-pop girl group — and the third K-pop group overall — to top the Billboard 200, with its 2022 album, Born Pink.
A week ago, YG Entertainment’s share price was up 80.8% year to date and was outpacing its K-pop competitors. Following the BLACKPINK news, shares of YG Entertainment fell to 130,300 KRW ($97.56), dropping its year-to-date gain to 51.4%. That put YG Entertainment below SM Entertainment’s 69.9% year-to-date gain and JYP Entertainment’s 55.6% improvement.
Overall, the 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.9% to 1,330.12 this week, lowering its year-to-date gain to 13.9%. Eleven stocks ended the week in negative territory and two were unchanged. Of the eight stocks that finished in positive territory, only Cumulus Media, which gained 7.9% to $4.80, appreciated more than 3%.
Music stocks outperformed some major indexes, though. In the United States, the S&P 500 dropped 2.4% to 4,345.64 and the Nasdaq composite fell 3.6% to 13,211.81. Overseas, the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 7,683.91 while South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 3.6% to 2,508.13.
Led by Cumulus Media’s 7.9% gain, the three radio companies in the index had an average gain of 3.8% — the only segment in positive territory — with SiriusXM gaining 2% to $4.07 and iHeartMedia rising 1.5% to $3.45. Meanwhile, the eight stocks covering record labels and music publishers lost an average of 1.1%, and four live music stocks fell by an average of 1.7%. The six streaming companies in the Billboard Global Music Index lost an average of 6.9%.
Two streaming companies, LiveOne and Anghami, had the sharpest declines of the week. Abu Dhabi-based Anghami dropped 19% to $0.68, bringing its year-to-date loss to 57.4%. U.S. music streamer LiveOne fell 23.4% to $1.05 and has lost 36% of its value since spinning off its PodcastOne division on Sept. 11 and attracting media attention over allegations its Kast Media division did not pay some advertising revenues to podcasters. The spinoff hasn’t helped the company’s combined value: Trading under the name Courtside Group, the podcast company’s share price fell to $2.05 this week, 52% below its opening trading price on Sept. 8. The other streaming stocks almost broke even this week: Spotify, Tencent Music Entertainment, Cloud Music and Deezer had an average share price decline of just 0.2%.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund rose 2.8% to 0.832 pounds ($1.02) a week after dropping 12.8% on news the publicly traded investment trust plans to sell some catalogs for $465 million. The sale proceeds would fund share buybacks and repurchase debt, which Hipgnosis believes will support the beleaguered share price and reset the company’s net asset value.
Shares of Warner Music Group (WMG) dropped 4.7% to $30.76 this week following the announcement on Monday (Sept. 18) that BMG is taking control of its digital distribution and will no longer use WMG’s ADA Distribution (though it will continue to outsource its physical distribution). The news didn’t impact WMG’s share price until Wednesday (Sept. 20), when a report by analysts at Guggenheim stated that BMG’s decision would cause “a staggered reduction in WMG gross revenue” beginning Dec. 31 of roughly $250 million annually. Losing BMG’s digital business won’t be a major hit to WMG’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), however: Guggenheim believes WMG’s revenue from BMG had an EBITDA margin in the low single digits and would have “minimal free cash flow impact.” Guggenheim has a $37 price target on WMG, which implies 20% of upside from Friday’s closing price.
News that Concord plans to buy Round Hill Music Royalty Fund for $1.15 per share sent Round Hill shares soaring 64.4% on Friday (Sept. 8), from $0.6875 to $1.13 per share. They finished the week up 62.6%, leading all music stocks by a wide margin.
The deal, which must be approved by at least 75% of Round Hill’s shareholders at the company’s Oct. 18 general meeting, values the rights in the fund at nearly $469 million. On March 6, an independent valuation from Citron Cooperman put Round Hill’s economic net asset value at $519.6 million, according to the company’s 2022 annual report. That puts Concord’s bid at a 9.7% discount to economic NAV — a vast improvement from the 46% discount the stock had been trading at before the deal was announced.
Round Hill competitor Hipgnosis Songs Fund was also a beneficiary of Concord’s announcement. Shares of Hipgnosis rose 15.7% to 0.923 pounds ($1.15) on Friday, bringing the stock’s one-week gain to 16.8%. Hipgnosis shares have been trading at a steep discount to the company’s net asset value — a measure of the company’s catalog, less liabilities — and hadn’t closed above 0.923 pounds since Sept. 27, 2022. The fact that Concord found a buyer at a price close to its NAV could have signaled to Hipgnosis investors that its shares should be trading closer to its NAV. Some Hipgnosis investors may have also believed that, like the Concord deal, Hipgnosis could also find a suitor that would bid close to the NAV.
Round Hill and Hipgnosis were — by far — the biggest gainers of the week. Overall, the 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index dropped 0.8% to 1,348.41. Year-to-date, the index has gained 15.5%.
No other music stocks had a double-digit gain, and just six others finished the week in positive territory. Twelve stocks lost ground this week and one stock, music streamer Anghami, was unchanged. French music streamer Deezer gained 6.8% and was probably helped by its announcement of a partnership with Universal Music Group to adopt a new system for calculating streaming royalties. Universal Music Group shares improved 3.8% to 23.52 euros ($25.20).
Stocks were down around the world this week. In the United States, the S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.9%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index lost 0.6%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was a bright spot with a slight 0.2% gain.
With the help of Round Hill and Hipgnosis, the eight stocks in the record labels and publishing category on the Billboard Global Music Index had an average gain of 10.3%. The other categories saw losses; four live music stocks had a 0.9% average decline, six streaming stocks dropped an average of 3.9% and three radio stocks had a 4.7% average decline.
LiveOne shares fell 10.4% on Friday following the company’s spin-off of its PodcastOne segment on the Nasdaq exchange. That brought its shares’ one-week loss to 21.8%. LiveOne distributed about 19% of PodcastOne shares to LiveOne shareholders of record as of Sept. 5, but the podcast company’s trading debut got off to a rocky start on Friday. Trading under the ticker PODC, shares of PodcastOne owner and operater Courtside Group fell 45.1% to $4.39 from a starting price of $8 per share.
Spotify led a group of high-flying streaming stocks this week by gaining 14.8% to $157.54 per share, increasing its market capitalization by nearly $4 billion to $30.7 billion. The world’s largest streaming company, which boasted 220 million subscribers as of June 30, has clawed back nearly all its losses since its share price dropped 14% […]
Live music companies’ stocks fell an average of 4.4% on this week’s Billboard Global Music Index despite their optimism about sustained consumer spending and healthy revenue and ticket sales in the second half of the year. While Live Nation shares rose 0.5% to $84.79, the other promoters and ticketing companies in the index had down weeks: Madison Square Garden Entertainment fell 2.7%, CTS Eventim dropped 5.7% and Sphere Entertainment Co. plunged 9.6%.
Sphere Entertainment shares have gained over 19% since the company turned on the external display on its state-of-the-art Las Vegas venue and showcased the potential inside the structure on July 5. The company’s second quarter results, released Tuesday, showed revenue of $129.1 million — with the Sphere contributing just $700,000 and the remainder coming from MSG Networks. Sphere’s share price rose nearly 8% to $39.58 following Tuesday’s earnings results but fell nearly 15% over the next three days. The $2.3-billion Sphere will open on Sept. 29 with a 25-date residency by U2.
iHeartMedia shares rose 6.6% for the week to close at $3.56 on Friday (Aug. 25), making the radio giant the week’s greatest gainer on the Billboard Global Music Index. However, radio companies’ struggle with weak national advertising has hurt their share prices overall in 2023. Year to date through Friday, iHeartMedia was down 41.9% and Cumulus Media had lost 41.9%. Audacy, troubled by debt on top of the soft advertising market, was de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange on May 16 and currently trades over the counter at 75 cents per share despite a reverse stock split on June 30 raising the price from 7 cents to $2.13. Audacy was removed from the Billboard Global Music Index following the de-listing.
Overall, the 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index was flat this week at 1,298.80. Ten stocks finished the week in positive territory, ten stocks lost ground and one stock, Round Hill Music Royalty Fund, was unchanged. Record labels and music publishers were the top performing sector with an average gain of 1.7% and only one company, Universal Music Group (down 0.7%), finished in negative territory. Streaming companies and radio companies suffered average weekly losses of 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.
Year-to-date, the index has increased 11.2%, even as it’s now on its fifth straight week without a gain.
Stocks in general performed better than music stocks. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 2.3%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE gained 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 0.6%.
The week’s biggest loser, streaming company Anghami, fell 17.5% to 94 cents per share. The stock traded below $1 per share from Wednesday to Friday, marking the first time since July 18 the stock has dropped below $1. On Monday, Anghami announced the sale of a convertible note worth $5 million to SRMG Ventures, a venture arm of Saudi Research and Media Group. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital, growth and other corporate purposes.