Billboard Global Music Index
In a miserable week for stock markets worldwide, Spotify continued to fall from its all-time high, K-pop stocks sank and one of the smallest companies on the Billboard Global Music Index posted a double-digit gain.
LiveOne was the week’s biggest gainer as the music streaming company’s shares rose 19.6% to $1.22 after it announced on Wednesday (Dec. 18) that its partnership with Tesla surpassed 350,000 subscribers. On Friday (Dec. 20), the company also said it has regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange’s minimum bid price requirement.
Only two other music stocks posted gains this week. Sphere Entertainment Co. rose 2.5% to $38.74, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14.0%. Sphere Entertainment shares have lost 12.1% since the company announced its fiscal first-quarter results on Nov. 12. Reservoir Media also improved 2.3% on the week after jumping 4.8% to $9.26 on Friday.
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The Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 3.3% to 2,168.69, lowering its year-to-date gain to 41.4%. Just three of the index’s 20 stocks finished the week in positive territory. After increasing each week from late October to early December, the BGMI lost 4.9% over two consecutive weekly losses. The latest 3.3% weekly decline is only the fourth time in 2024 that the index has dropped more than 3% in a calendar week.
Stocks’ bad week extended beyond music companies. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.8% to 19,572.60 and the S&P 500 declined 2.0% to 5,930.85. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was down 2.6% to 8,084.61. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 3.6% to 2,404.15. China’s Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.7% to 3,368.07.
Among other music companies, Live Nation had a modest decline of just 2%, dropping to $133.17 despite more analysts increasing their price targets on the stock this week. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $150 from $140 and Benchmark increased it to $160 from $144 and maintained its “buy” rating.
Spotify, the index’s most valuable company, fell for the second consecutive week. After closing above $500 on December 4, Spotify shares dropped 8.3% and closed at $460.88 on Friday, down 4.8% for the week. Overall, streaming had more losers than winners this week. Cloud Music fell 7.9% to 116.60 HKD ($14.99), marking the second-largest decline of the week. SPDB International began coverage of Cloud Music this week at a 145 HKD ($18.64) price target and “buy” rating. Elsewhere, Anghami fell 3.7% to $0.79.
Four K-pop stocks declined an average of 5.1% this week, reflecting the ongoing political uncertainty in the South Korean market. SM Entertainment was down 6.3%, JYP Entertainment fell 5.8%, HYBE dropped 4.3% and YG Entertainment sank 3.9%. Year-to-date, the four South Korean companies are down an average of 18.3%, a far deeper deficit than Universal Music Group (down 5.6% YTD) or Warner Music Group (down 12.9% YTD).
iHeartMedia, the week’s biggest loser, dropped 17.5% to $1.89. The radio company’s stock was trading at $1.00 on July 21 and rose to $2.61 on Dec. 6. In the last two weeks, however, its shares have slipped 27.6%.
K-pop stocks rebounded this week from a slump caused by the country’s political turmoil. HYBE, which was also dragged down by news of an investigation of its chairman, Bang Si-Hyuk, regarding the company’s 2020 initial public offering, led the group of South Korean music companies by gaining 8.7% to 205,500 won ($143.16), bringing the stock back to its level from one month ago. Elsewhere, YG Entertainment gained 7.2% to 48,250 won ($33.61) to recapture losses from the previous three weeks while SM Entertainment and JYP Entertainment had smaller improvements of 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) dropped 1.6% to 2,243.59, marking its first weekly decline in seven weeks. After reaching record highs in each of the previous five weeks, the index was overcome by the losses among 13 of its 20 stocks. The BGMI fared worse than many major indexes. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite gained 0.3% and the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 lost 0.1%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.7% while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%.
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The week’s biggest gainer was Abu Dhabi-based music streaming company Anghami. In the absence of any market-moving news or regulatory filing, the company’s shares spiked 17.4% on Tuesday (Dec. 10) on heavy trading volume. On an average day, 80,000 shares of Anghami trade hands. But nearly 3.5 million shares — 5% of the company’s shares outstanding — were traded on Tuesday, and another 616,000 shares exchanged hands over the next two days.
Other than Anghami and K-pop stocks, only two companies posted gains this week. Universal Music Group, the index’s second-largest company, gained 4.6% to 24.46 euros ($25.69), its best closing price since it lost 24% following second-quarter earnings on July 25. Warner Music Group improved 0.3% to $32.52.
Spotify, the hottest music stock of 2024, had a losing week for the first time since September. The streaming company’s share price dropped 3.1% to $483.31, finishing the week 4.6% off its all-time high of $506.47 set on Dec. 4. Still, investors have renewed faith in Spotify after the company improved its margins and bottom line while maintaining the same rapid growth rate before it laid off nearly a quarter of its workforce in 2023. Spotify shares are up 157.2% year to date and the company’s market capitalization briefly surpassed $100 billion a week ago.
Live Nation shares fell 0.6% to $135.95 despite more analysts raising price targets on the concert promoter’s share price this week. Wolfe Research increased its price target to $160 from $152. JP Morgan upped its price target to $150 from $137. And Roth MKM raised Live Nation to $152 from $132. Live Nation’s stock is up 45.2% year to date and is one of the best performers on the BGMI.
SiriusXM had the week’s biggest loss after dropping 14.8% to $24.11. On Tuesday, the company announced guidance for 2025 revenue that would represent a 2% decline from full-year 2024 revenue guidance. The company also revealed it is doubling down on in-car listening and refocusing on satellite radio after its year-old streaming app delivered disappointing results. Following the news, Seaport Global lowered its recommendation on SiriusXM’s stock to “neutral” from “buy.”
In other stock moves, German concert promoter CTS Eventim fell 4.9% to 34.37 euros ($36.10). The company announced this week that it acquired a 17% stake in French ticketing company France Billet. Lastly, New York-based live events company Madison Square Garden Entertainment dropped 8.5% to $34.37 and radio giant iHeartMedia was down 12.3% to $2.29.
Spotify continued its remarkable run this week by briefly surpassing a $100 billion market capitalization before falling slightly by the close of trading on Friday (Dec. 6). The company’s shares rose 4.5% to $498.63, marking the music streamer’s second-best closing price ever. The best closing price of $502.38 came on Wednesday (Dec. 4) when Spotify reached a new intraday high of $506.47, valuing the Swedish company at approximately $100.8 billion.
The $100 billion threshold arrived the same day Spotify launched its 2024 Wrapped, the personalized, data-driven product that breaks down listeners’ streaming time and ranks their most popular artists and tracks. Wrapped, first launched in 2015, has become both a major media event and an immensely successful product that listeners share incessantly on social media.
At Friday’s closing price, Spotify has gained 165.4% in 2024, making it the only music company to have a triple-digit gain. This improvement is three times higher than that of Live Nation, which has risen 46.1% this year. Cloud Music is close behind with a 44.2% gain year-to-date.
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With a valuation of more than double the next-largest music company, Spotify is a major driver of the 20-stock Billboard Global Music Index, which rose 2.8% to an all-time high of 2,280.51. That brings its year-to-date gain to 48.7%. Ten of the 20 stocks were gainers while nine lost ground and one was unchanged. Radio companies, buoyed by iHeartMedia’s 14% gain, led the way with an average gain of 5.9%. Streaming companies posted a 4.4% average gain. Live music companies were essentially flat. Multi-format companies (record labels, music publishers) fell 2.1% on average.
Most other streaming companies were gainers this week. Tencent Music Entertainment rose 10% to $11.54. Cloud Music increased 9.7% to 129.40 HKD ($16.63). LiveOne jumped 6% to $0.88. Deezer improved 2.9% to 1.37 euros ($1.45). Abu Dhabi-based Anghami fell 6.8% to $0.73.
On the live front, MSG Entertainment improved 1.6% to $36.26 this week. The company announced on Tuesday (Dec. 3) that it spent $25 million repurchasing its Class A common shares due to their price “relative to the company’s long-term growth potential.” Elsewhere, Live Nation fell 1.1% to $140.26 while Sphere Entertainment Co., which announced additional Dead & Company dates this week, fell 5.1% to $40.27.
In other noteworthy stock moves this week, HYBE dropped 3.2% to 214,000 won ($150.15) after news broke that South Korean authorities are investigating chairman Bang Si-hyuk for possible violations of the country’s Capital Markets Act. The move came after a report claimed Bang had a secret agreement with shareholders prior to HYBE’s initial public stock offering that gave him a $285 million profit when the company went public in 2020. HYBE shares fell 6.7% over the two trading days following the news report but recovered more than half its losses later in the week. Other K-pop stocks fell in unison with HYBE. JYP Entertainment dropped 5.2%, YG Entertainment lost 5.8% and SM Entertainment sank 7.5%.
Elsewhere, stocks were mostly up globally. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 3.3% and the S&P 500 gained 1%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 improved 0.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index grew 2.4%. Dragged down by political turmoil, South Korea’s KOSPI composite dropped 1.1%.
JYP Entertainment, the K-pop company behind such artists as TWICE and Stray Kids, is on a roll, with its stock closing Friday (Nov. 22) at 66,100 won ($47.06) — up 11.3% for the week and marking its highest closing price since May 10. This week, the company seemingly got a nudge from the Monday (Nov. 18) announcement of Stray Kids’ 20-date, Live Nation-produced stadium tour in 2025 that will cover North America, Latin America and Europe. But the momentum has been building for a while; over the last three weeks, JYP shares have gained 35.6%.
Other K-pop stocks also posted gains this week: YG Entertainment rose 7.7% as “APT” by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars spent a fourth week atop the Billboard global charts and reached No. 1 in Japan. Elsewhere, HYBE improved 4.4% and SM Entertainment increased 4.3%. Collectively, the four K-pop companies have gained an average of 20.7% in the last three weeks and narrowed their average year-to-date deficit to 15%.
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Another high-flying music stock was Live Nation, which jumped 8.7% to an all-time high of $140.26 on Friday after more analysts increased their price targets. Citigroup increased its target on the concert promoter to $163 from $130, while Deutsche Bank upped its target to $150 from $130. As of Friday’s closing price, Live Nation shares have gained 49.8% in 2024 and 19.8% in just the last three weeks. The company’s third-quarter earnings on Nov. 11 can take credit for some of the recent gains, though Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election played a part, too, as investors believe Live Nation’s ongoing lawsuit brought by the Department of Justice will see a more favorable resolution with the incoming administration.
In other music stocks news, Spotify continued its hot streak by gaining 3.7% to $475.27, marking its second-highest closing price ever. A week earlier, Spotify shares gained 14.5% after the company’s third-quarter earnings showed the company achieved a record operating profit. The streaming company’s stock has gained 153% in 2024 and is up 23.6% in the last three weeks alone.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 2.1% to a record 2,208.32 as 14 stocks finished the week with gains, putting it in line with stocks around the globe. In the United States, both the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 increased 1.7%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE was up 2.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 3.5%. Only China’s Shanghai Composite Index was an exception, dropping 1.9%.
Elsewhere, music streamer LiveOne gained 12.8% to $0.88, while iHeartMedia improved 8.6% to $2.40 after the radio giant announced terms for a debt exchange that will ease the company’s financial burden and extend most of the maturity dates for its debts. As of Nov. 14, note holders representing approximately 85% of outstanding debt have agreed to exchange notes under the new terms.
Just six of the index’s 20 stocks finished the week in negative territory. The sharpest drop came from German concert promoter CTS Eventim, which fell 9.7% this week after the company’s third-quarter earnings showed an increase in revenue but a drop in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin for both the promotion and ticketing segments.
Lastly, label giant Warner Music Group (WMG) dropped 3.3% to $31.85 following the release of its latest quarterly earnings on Thursday (Nov. 21). JP Morgan dropped its price target to $40 from $41 after lowering its estimate for fiscal 2025 adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization (OIBDA) to $1.49 billion from $1.527 billion. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank cut its WMG price target to $34 from $36.
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Spotify is on such a hot streak that the streaming company nearly reached a $100 billion market capitalization this week. After the company’s third-quarter earnings showed cost-cutting has led to record profitability, shares peaked at a new all-time high of $489.69 on Thursday (Nov. 14), briefly putting its market capitalization above $98 billion. However, the stock fell on Friday (Nov. 15) to a final closing price of $458.32, valuing the company at $92.04 billion. While the stock was still up 14.5%, that marked a bit of a letdown from its previous high.
During the height of the pandemic, Spotify benefitted from a rush into streaming stocks as consumers spent more time with audio and visual media. Investors were also attracted to its push into podcasts, which provided an opportunity to improve upon the margins of its core music service. But investors eventually grew tired of Spotify’s growth-over-profitability mantra, sending the company’s share price from $387 in February 2021 to under $70 in November 2021. But a focus on cost-cutting and expansion into audiobooks helped bring investors back; Spotify shares gained 138% in 2023 and have already increased 144% in 2024.
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After delivering solid results and showing investors a pathway to greater profitability, Guggenheim increased its price target for Spotify to $500 from $420 and raised its estimate for 2025 operating profit to 2.5 billion euros ($2.63 billion) from 2.1 billion euros ($2.21 billion). Analysts cited management’s confidence in usage growth and ability to raise prices and further improve margins. Morgan Stanley raised Spotify to $460 from $430, also citing the company’s ability to further raise prices and management’s “commitment to financial discipline and driving profitability.” At JPMorgan, analysts upped Spotify to $530 from $425 for the aforementioned reasons, in addition to the stock’s coming inclusion in the MSCI World Index on Nov. 25.
A bevy of analysts also increased their price targets for Live Nation following the company’s earnings report on Monday (Nov. 11), which showed that the promoter achieved a record adjusted operating income in the third quarter. Among them: Rosenblatt Securities ($146 from $123), Goldman Sachs ($148 from $132), Benchmark ($145 from $108), Evercore ISI ($150 from $110), Oppenheimer ($155 from $120) and Wolfe Research ($152 from $125). Live Nation shares finished the week at $129.00, up 4.9%, and reached a new intraday high of $130.83 on Friday.
Spotify’s big gain was the primary reason the Billboard Global Music Index grew 5.8% to 2,162.50 despite just six of its 20 stocks finishing the week in positive territory. The float-adjusted, unweighted index measures the aggregate market values of the 20 member companies; Spotify is the most valuable company on the index and is more than twice as valuable as the next company, Universal Music Group (UMG). The week’s other five gainers are among the index’s largest companies: Live Nation, CTS Eventim, JYP Entertainment, HYBE and SM Entertainment all have market capitalizations exceeding $1 billion.
Stock markets hit a post-election hangover this week that stalled the gains seen after Donald Trump won the presidential election on Nov. 5. In the United States, the Nasdaq fell 3.1% and the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 lost just 0.1%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 5.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.5%.
Despite the KOSPI’s decline, K-pop stocks — which have recovered ground in the second half of the year and now have a collective year-to-date deficit of 20.2% — were up across the board. JYP Entertainment gained 8.2%, HYBE improved 3.2%, SM Entertainment added 2.8% and YG Entertainment rose 2.7%.
On the live front, Sphere Entertainment Co. fell 8.6% after its latest earnings showed a slowdown in revenue at its Sphere division, with Macquarie lowering the company’s price target to $45 from $47. And at MSG Entertainment (MSGE), shares dropped 6.8% to $40.00 after Bernstein reduced its MSGE price target to $44 from $45 earlier in the week.
Over at radio, Cumulus Media fell 19.3% to $0.71 after it reportedly conducted layoffs at stations in Central Pennsylvania, Indianapolis, Detroit and San Francisco as part of broader job cuts ahead of the holiday season — all on the heels of recent layoffs at competitor iHeartRadio. Elsewhere music streamer LiveOne dropped 12.4% to $0.78 this week.
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Spotify rode a post-election wave of market enthusiasm to close above $400 for the first time on Friday (Nov. 8), valuing the music-streaming giant at nearly $80.5 billion. Before finishing at $400.68, up 4.1% for the week, the company’s stock reached an all-time high of $405.88.
The Stockholm, Sweden-based company’s stock price has increased 113% in 2024 as the company overtook Universal Music Group (UMG) as the most valuable music company. When investors began to tire of high-growth streaming companies with little to show in profitability, Spotify underwent two major rounds of layoffs in 2023, helping reduce costs without sacrificing subscriber growth or revenue. With third-quarter earnings coming on Tuesday (Nov. 12), Spotify will show whether it has maintained that momentum. At least one analyst is optimistic ahead of earnings: Deutsche Bank raised its Spotify price target on Wednesday to $440 from $430.
U.S. stock markets soared this week following the election of Donald Trump on Tuesday (Nov. 5) and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday (Nov. 7) to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. On Friday, the Nasdaq composite closed at an all-time high of 19,286.78, up 5.7%. The S&P 500 gained 4.7% to close at a record high of 5,995.54. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.5% to 3,452.30. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index improved just 0.7% to 2,561.15. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 fell 1.3% to 8,072.39.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index gained 2.4% to an all-time high of 2,043.02, bringing its year-to-date gain to 33.2%. The index had 13 stocks in positive territory while six lost ground and one was unchanged.
The week’s top music stock was iHeartMedia, which jumped 16.7% to $2.44 after the company announced it will restructure much of its retiring debt and plans to save $200 million in 2025 through cost cuts and the embrace of technology. “Technology is the key to increasing our operating leverage and is a constant focus for us,” CEO Bob Pittman said during an earnings call on Thursday. “It allows us to speed up processes, streamline legacy systems and it enables our folks to create more, better and faster.” iHeartMedia shares are down 8.6% year to date but have risen 180% since May 24.
LiveOne gained 15.6% to $0.89 per share after the music streamer announced that revenue increased 14% to $32.6 million and paid members rose 27% to 645,000 in its fiscal second quarter ended Sept. 30. Reservoir Media was another top gainer, improving 9.1% to $9.00.
On the live front, Live Nation shares rose 5.1% to $123.02 following a post-election day boost. The concert promoter is currently facing a lawsuit from the U.S. Department of Justice but could find a better outcome from new appointments made by the Trump administration. The election wasn’t the only reason for the stock’s gains: Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $140 from $120 based on “a combination of strong underlying consumer demand and powerful artist incentives to tour,” analysts wrote in an investor note on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank also increased its Live Nation price target to $130 from $122.
K-pop stocks surged this week despite HYBE and SM Entertainment both reporting sharp drops in profit last quarter due partly to weaker recorded music revenues. HYBE shares jumped 6.4% after the company reported a 99% drop in net income. Likewise, SM Entertainment gained 7.2% the same week the company announced quarterly net profit fell 96% on a 9% revenue decline and a 36% drop in recorded music revenue. Investors may have gained optimism from SM Entertainment’s announcement it will launch a new girl group — its first since aespa debuted five years ago — in 2025 with a single and album release in the first quarter.
JYP Entertainment, which has not yet announced quarterly earnings, shot up 12.6%, and YG Entertainment continued its hot streak, rising 6.3% and bringing its gain in the last three weeks to 17.6%. YG has received a boost from the success of “APT” by ROSÉ featuring Bruno Mars. The song is currently in its second week atop both the Billboard Global 200 and Billboard Global Excl. U.S. charts.
Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) shares rose 2.4% to $11.39 ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings on Tuesday (Nov. 12). Bernstein initiated coverage of TME with a $14 price target. Barclays initiated coverage with an “overweight” rating and a $16 price target.
German concert promoter CTS Eventim was the worst-performing music stock of the week, dropping 10.4% to 87.70 euros ($94.05). The company will release third-quarter results on Nov. 21. Elsewhere, Cumulus Media dropped 6.4% to $0.88, adding to the prior week’s 19% decline, while SiriusXM dropped 5.5% to $26.13.
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YG Entertainment shares gained 4.3% this week as “APT” by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars continued its hot streak. A week after YG’s stock gained 6.1% following the track’s blockbuster start on streaming services, the track topped both the Billboard Global 200 and Billboard Global Excl. U.S. charts. ROSÉ, a member of YG recording artist BLACKPINK, released “APT” through Atlantic Records in partnership with THEBLACKLABEL, a YG sub-label co-founded in 2015 by BLACKPINK producer Teddy Park. While YG continues to manage BLACKPINK, ROSÉ signed with THEBLACKLABEL for the management of her solo career.
Universal Music Group (UMG) shares fell 0.7% over the week but gained 1.6% to 23.45 euros ($25.52) on Friday (Nov. 1) following the company’s third-quarter earnings the prior day. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to 35 euros ($38) from 33 euros ($35.90). “Our conviction on UMG is as high as it’s ever been,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an investor note. Guggenheim called UMG’s third-quarter results “encouraging” and maintained a 25.50 euros ($27.74) price target and its “neutral” rating on UMG shares.
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SiriusXM gained 4.7% to $27.65 after the company’s third-quarter earnings release on Thursday (Oct. 31) showed a net gain of 14,000 self-pay subscribers in the quarter. Despite the uptick, average revenue per user fell due to a “higher proportion of subscribers on self-pay promotional and streaming-only plans,” the company said.
Deezer shares gained 2.1% to 1.43 euros ($1.56) after the company’s third-quarter earnings showed 11% revenue growth and a 9% uptick in subscribers. New CEO Alexis Lanternier sounded upbeat about partnerships with MeLi+ and Mercado Libre, which has converted free trials at a rate “higher than our expectations,” in his words. Still, Deezer’s share price is down 32.9% year to date.
Reservoir Media fell 3.5% to $8.25 following its earnings release on Wednesday (Oct. 30) which showed solid 6% revenue growth. The stock did not get a bump from Reservoir’s slightly upgraded full-year guidance nor B. Riley’s increase of its price target to $12.50 from $11.50.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) was essentially flat for the week, rising 0.3% to 1,995.67 despite having just seven gainers as opposed to 13 stocks that lost ground. The small increase brought the index’s year-to-date gain to 30.1% and reversed the BGMI to the win category after it dropped 0.6% the prior week, breaking a streak of six consecutive weeks of gains.
Even a small gain outperformed many major stock indexes. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite fell 1.5% to 18,329.92 and the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 5,728.80. Both indexes rose on Friday, however, as investors paid little attention to a weak jobs report and both Amazon and Intel jumped after reporting quarterly earnings. On Thursday (Oct. 31), Meta and Microsoft shares fell following their respective earnings reports, with Meta dropping 3% and Microsoft falling more than 5%.
Music streamer LiveOne was the greatest gainer of the week after jumping 32.8% to $0.77. The company announced on Thursday that it has engaged MZ Group to increase the visibility of PodcastOne in the investment community. LiveOne spun off PodcastOne in 2023 and retained an 81% stake. Investors may have taken note of MZ Group’s Chris Donovan’s statement that PodcastOne “owns intellectual property that can be sold for a significant return on investment.”
Outside of YG Entertainment, the other four K-pop stocks lost ground. HYBE fell 3.1% and increased its year-to-date loss to 20.0%. JYP Entertainment fell 4.2%. SM Entertainment slipped 0.7%. Collectively, the four K-pop companies’ share prices are down 28.6% in 2024.
iHeartMedia jumped 16.1% to $2.09 a week before the company reports third-quarter earnings on Thursday (Nov. 7). Another radio company, Cumulus Media, dropped 19.0% to $0.94 following its release of third-quarter earnings on Friday. The company’s revenue fell 1.8% to $204 million and it saw a net loss of $10.3 million, down from a net profit of $2.7 million in the prior-year period. “Looking forward, the advertising environment remains uncertain,” warned Cumulus CEO Mary Berner.
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As earnings season prepares to get underway, K-pop companies were among the week’s rare winners as music stocks broke a six-week winning streak.
YG Entertainment surged 6.1% this week as the company appears to have scored a hit with “APT” by ROSÉ, a member of the girl group BLACKPINK, featuring Bruno Mars. The track got off to a blistering start this week, topping Spotify’s global and U.S. daily streaming charts and earning 13.3 million streams in the U.S. in its first four days of release. SM Entertainment, home to NCT 127 and RIIZE, rose 4.1%, while HYBE, with a roster including Seventeen and Tomorrow X Together, improved 2.1%. JYP Entertainment, the agency behind Stray Kids and ITZY, improved 1.4%.
Stock prices are likely to see movement in the coming weeks as companies release their results for the quarter ended Sept. 30. The first music companies out of the gate are Reservoir Media (Oct. 30), SiriusXM (Oct. 31), Universal Music Group (Oct. 31) and Cumulus Media (Nov. 1). Other companies that have announced earnings release dates include Sony Corp. (Nov. 8), Tencent Music Entertainment (Nov. 12), Live Nation (Nov. 12) and Spotify (Nov. 12).
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 0.6% to 1,974.72 in the week ended Oct. 25 after breaking 2,000 for the first time the prior week and posting gains the previous five weeks. In the week ended Oct. 18, the BGMI reached 2,001.28, more than doubling in value since the index launched in February 2022. After the recent decline, the index’s year-to-date gain stood at 29.7%, ahead of both the Nasdaq composite (up 23.4%) and S&P 500 (up 21.8%).
Stock markets were mixed this week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 18,518.61 while the Nasdaq composite fell 1.0% to 5,808.12 despite Tesla’s 22% gain after the electric vehicle maker beat earnings expectations and upgraded its growth outlook. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 dropped 1.6% to 8,248.84. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dipped 0.4% to 2,583.27. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.2% to 3,299.70.
Outside of South Korean companies, one of the biggest movers of the week was Live Nation. Ahead of the company’s Nov. 12 earnings release, numerous analysts increased their price targets on the concert promoter’s stock this week: Redburn Atlantic (to $126 from $118), Jefferies (to $132 from $113), JP Morgan (to $137 from $118) and Goldman Sachs (to $132 from $128). Given that the third quarter is historically Live Nation’s strongest period and the company has set all-time records in previous quarters, Q3 results are likely to boast more all-time highs.
Spotify was one of the index’s few stocks to post a weekly gain — albeit with just a 0.1% increase. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Spotify on Wednesday to $430 from $400. Analysts see much upside for Spotify. Global subscription penetration (excluding China) “remains relatively low” at 15%, Goldman analysts explained in a Tuesday (Oct. 22) investor note, and Spotify has the ability to further raise prices. Additionally, they wrote, Spotify’s growing audiobook business proved the company can generate more revenue from its subscribers than was possible when it offered just music.
Most music stocks had modest, single-digit declines this week. Warner Music Group fell 0.1% to $32.38, Universal Music Group dropped 1.9% to 23.61 euros, Tencent Music Entertainment declined 3.2% to $11.50, Reservoir Media dipped 3.4% to $8.55, iHeartMedia was down 4.3% to $1.80, and both Sphere Entertainment Co. and SiriusXM were off 4.4%.
LiveOne was the week’s biggest loser after falling 10.6% to $0.58. The music streamer has fallen 38% since its Oct. 1 announcement that Tesla will no longer subsidize the LiveOne-powered streaming service in new vehicles. Radio broadcaster Cumulus Media dropped 9.4% to $1.16, bringing its year-to-date decline to 78.2%.
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Chinese music streaming companies had another big week after authorities unveiled an economic stimulus plan that will encourage the purchase of Chinese equities, with Cloud Music gaining 10.7% to 134.50 HKD ($17.32) and Tencent Music Entertainment rising 9.9% to $13.48. Last week, Cloud Music and Tencent Music gained 31.5% and 24.6%, respectively.
The Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) increased 0.4% to 1,964.44, a fourth-consecutive weekly gain and the third straight week the index set a new record high. With winners and losers evenly split amongst the index’s 20 stocks, the BMGI improved its year-to-date gain to 28.1%.
Outside of China, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose 8.1% to 3,336.50, stocks were generally muted this week as investors were uncertain about how the widening war in the Middle East would affect the global economy. Oil prices increased 10% this week in part due to President Joe Biden’s comment that the U.S. was discussing possible strikes by Israel on Iranian oil production sites. Prices remained well below levels reached following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, however.
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In the U.S., the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1% and the S&P 500 gained 0.2%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 fell 0.5% to 8,280.63. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dropped 3.0% to 2,569.71.
iHeartMedia was the BGMI’s biggest gainer of the week, rising 15.2% to $1.97; the radio company’s shares have fallen 3.9% year to date but have risen 142% since hitting a 52-week low of $0.813 on May 28. Elsewhere, the index’s most valuable companies had either modest gains or losses. Live Nation gained 2.0% to $110.87. Spotify rose 0.6% to $371.45. HYBE increased 0.3% to 173,500 KRW ($128.82). Universal Music Group fell 2.0% to 23.37 euros ($25.66).
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares rose 4.4% to $45.26 as Wolfe Research upgraded the company on Wednesday (Oct. 2) to “outperform.” The company’s flagship venue, Sphere in Las Vegas, has added more shows to existing residencies. The Eagles will perform four additional shows in February, bringing its residency to 24 dates. In addition, Anyma added dates on Jan. 10 and 11 — the seventh and eighth shows at the venue for the Italian producer, who will break a string of legacy rock bands to become the first EDM artist to perform at Sphere.
Guggenheim reiterated its “buy” rating on Warner Music Group (WMG) and slightly lowered its estimate for ad-supported streaming revenue ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. BofA Securities downgraded WMG to “underperform” from “neutral” on Friday and lowered its price target to $30 from $33. WMG shares finished the week at $31.14, down 0.2%.
LiveOne shares fell 35.8% after the company lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance following a revised partnership with Tesla in which the auto manufacturer will no longer subsidize some customers’ in-auto streaming platform powered by LiveOne’s Slacker Radio. The Los Angeles-based company’s stock has fallen 51.4% year to date.
K-pop stocks, which have fallen sharply in 2024, were muted this week. HYBE, YG Entertainment, SM Entertainment and JYP Entertainment fell by an average of 0.1%, which nudged their average year-to-date loss down to 32.0%.
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Billboard
Billboard
Two Chinese music streaming companies, Cloud Music and Tencent Music Entertainment, led all music stocks in a second consecutive record-setting week.
Cloud Music surged 31.5% to 121.50 HKD ($15.63) and Tencent Music Entertainment jumped 24.6% to $12.27, benefitted from a surge in Chinese stocks this week. Cloud Music set a new 52-week high of 123.40 HKD ($15.88) on Friday and brought its year-to-date gain to 35.4%. Before the current upswing, Tencent Music had lost more than half its value since hitting its 52-week high of $15.77 on May 16. Now, Tencent Music’s year-to-date gain stands at 36.2%.
Chinese stocks had their best week since 2008 as investors reacted to the country’s stimulus plan announced Tuesday. Among the components of the plan is a provision to allow banks to lend to companies to repurchase their shares and allowing major shareholders to buy larger stakes in companies. As a result, the Shanghai Composite Index, which measures all stocks traded on the Shanghai exchange, shot up 12.8% this week.
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Led by China’s two largest music streaming companies, the Billboard Global Music Index, a float-adjusted index of 20 music business stocks, rose 4.4% to a record 1,956.63 in the week ended Sept. 27. The BGMI has gained 12.2% in the last three weeks and reached a new record high for the second consecutive week. The index had 14 stocks in positive territory and just six of the 20 stocks in the red.
Music stocks easily outperformed most major indexes. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite gained 1.0% to 18,119.59 and the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 5,738.17. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was up 1.1% to 8,320.76. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 2.2% to 2,649.78.
K-pop stocks also had an outstanding week. The four leading South Korean music companies, which have all shed significant value in 2024, posted an average gain of 14.4%. YG Entertainment rose 18.3%, SM Entertainment jumped 16.9%, JYP Entertainment improved 14.2% and HYBE climbed 8.1%.
Spotify, the BMGI’s most valuable component, rose 1.1% to $369.13. During the week, Spotify shares rose as high as $389.96—a new all-time high—but fell $20 by the end of Friday. Universal Music Group, the BGMI’s second-most valuable component, gained 4.9% to 23.86 euros ($26.66). On Friday, Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded UMG to “hold” from “reduce” and lowered its price target to 23.50 euros ($26.25) from 27.00 euros ($30.16).
SiriusXM was one of the week’s few losers, dropping 2.2% to $24.39. Morgan Stanley on Tuesday told investors that SiriusXM faces the risk of “further multiple compression” due to a limited outlook for subscriber and revenue growth. In other words, if SiriusXM was valued at, say, 15 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), its growth prospects might merit a lower multiple.
Music streaming company LiveOne had the week’s biggest decline of 23.2%. Radio broadcaster Cumulus Media fell 8.6% and French music streamer Deezer dropped 8.0%.
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Billboard
Billboard