Can Olivia Dean Extend the Streak of Women Winning the Best New Artist Grammy to 9 Years?

Her stats: Her sophomore album, The Art of Loving, has climbed as high as No. 6 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout hit, “Man I Need,” has reached No. 8 on the Hot 100. The single was eligible for record of the year but wasn’t entered. (Oops.) The album was released after the eligibility cut-off, but it will be eligible for album of the year at the 2027 ceremony.

If she wins: She’ll be the first artist from England to win since Dua Lipa in 2019. She’d also become the second artist named Olivia to win, following Olivia Rodrigo.

Her stats: Her second studio album Bird’s Eye reached No. 139 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout single, “Love Me Not,” reached No. 5 on the Hot 100. “Love Me Not” was released in May 2024, but it’s eligible for record of the year this year. Go figure.

If she wins: Lenae, rather than Dean, will keep the winning streak alive for women artists in this category.

Their stats: Their second studio album, Submarine, debuted and peaked at No. 17 on the Billboard 200. Their breakout hit, “No One Noticed,” reached No. 22 on the Hot 100. Both album and single were released in the previous eligibility year, so they’re not eligible this year. (There’s more flexibility in this category for acts that needed a little more time to break through.)

If they win: They would be the first group to win since fun. in 2013; the first female-fronted group to win since Evanescence (fronted by Amy Lee) in 2004. The Marías consists of lead vocalist María Zardoya, drummer/producer Josh Conway, guitarist Jesse Perlman, and keyboardist Edward James.

The Marías were nominated for album of the year three years ago as featured artists on Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti. They owe their eligibility in this category to a rule change this year that allows artists with previous album of the year nominations to compete for best new artist if they appeared on 20 percent or less of the album’s playing time.

His stats: His debut album, I Barely Know Her, has climbed as high as No. 10 on the Billboard 200. He has had a pair of top 20 hits on the Hot 100, “Back to Friends” and “Undressed.” The hits were concurrent, so sombr neatly sidestepped the one-hit-wonder worry that has bedeviled newcomers since the dawn of record-making. sombr’s impressive songwriting earned a shout-out from Taylor Swift, who was nominated for best new artist 18 years ago. (She lost to Amy Winehouse.) Sombr’s camp entered “Back to Friends” and not “Undressed” for record and song of the year. Sombr may be new to the game, but he knows enough not to risk splitting your votes at awards shows.

If he wins: At 20, he would be the youngest winner since Olivia Rodrigo, who was just 18 when she won in 2023. He’d be the youngest male artist ever to win. (Just by being nominated, he would be the youngest male nominee since Khalid, who was 19 when he was nominated at the 2018 ceremony.)

His stats: His second studio album, Mutt, reached No. 35 on the Billboard 200. The title track, an old-school soul ballad in all its 1970s-evoking glory, has climbed as high as No. 10 on the Hot 100. “Mutt” was released in the previous eligibility year, so it isn’t eligible for record of the year, but an alternate take, “Mutt (Live From NPR’s Tiny Desk),” is entered.

At 32, Thomas is the oldest of this year’s top contenders for best new artist, though several other artists with a reasonably good chance of a nod have passed The Big 3-0. They include Sam Fender, 31; Riley Green, 37; and October London, 39.

If he wins: He’ll be the first person who has already won a Grammy to win best new artist since Lauryn Hill in 1999. As noted above, Thomas won best R&B song three years ago for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.” He was allowed to compete here this year because this was his breakthrough as an artist. Hill was allowed to compete for best new artist even though she had won two Grammys two years earlier as a member of Fugees. (Current rules wouldn’t allow that.)

His stats: His second studio album, Ain’t in It for My Health, debuted and peaked at No. 11 on the Billboard 200, 20 notches higher than the peak position of his debut album, Cold Beer and Country Music. “I Never Lie,” from the first album, reached No. 24 on the Hot 100 (and is entered for record of the year).

If he wins: He’ll be the first country artist to win since Zac Brown Band in 2010; the first male solo country artist ever to win.

His stats: His debut album, You’ll Be Alright, Kid, has reached No. 5 on the Billboard 200. “Ordinary” logged 10 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100. A follow-up, “Eternity,” reached No. 16.

If he wins: He’d be the second best new artist winner whose breakout year included a 10-week No. 1 smash. Debby Boone was the first with her 1977 megahit “You Light Up My Life.” (Interestingly, both are quasi-religious power ballads.) “Ordinary” was Billboard’s Song of the Summer, even though most agreed it wasn’t very summery. Warren is vying to become the fourth Song of the Summer champ to go on to win the Grammy for best new artist, following Carpenters, Mariah Carey and Christina Aguilera. (Their song of the summer winners, as you surely know, were “(They Long to Be) Close to You,” “Vision of Love” and “Genie in a Bottle,” respectively.)

Her stats: Her third album, I’m Only F**king Myself, debuted and peaked at No. 68 on the Billboard 200. Her breakout hit, “Messy,” reached No. 14 on the Hot 100. Tyler, The Creator’s “Like Him,” on which she was featured, reached No. 29. “Messy” was released in the previous eligibility year, but it’s entered for record of the year nonetheless.

If she wins: She, rather than Dean, will become the first artist from England to win since Dua Lipa in 2019.