Streaming
For years, Spotify’s founder and CEO, Daniel Ek, has aimed to make the streaming service “the world’s number one audio platform.” Between its music, podcast and audiobook offerings, and its formidable market share, it arguably has become just that.
But there’s one form of audio that the service is less excited about: noise. Also referred to as “non-artist noise content,” “non-music,” “functional music” (a commonly used term that some disagree with), and more by Spotify and music industry skeptics, these tracks capture sounds like wind, bird calls and white noise, and have become popular for listeners to stream, often for hours on end, while they sleep, focus, relax or meditate.
As streaming services become increasingly interested in changing their royalty models, these noise tracks have provoked debate between those who believe the content has value and those who feel it takes away from traditional musicians. And as Spotify and Deezer lead the charge, creating new policies that lower the money-making potential of noise, could penalizing this form of audio free up new money for musicians and help curb artificial streaming?
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In early 2023, Lucian Grainge, chairman/CEO of Universal Music Group, drew attention to the topic when he began to speak out against noise tracks regularly. “Our industry is entering a new chapter where we’re going to have to pick sides, all of us are going to have to pick sides,” he said at Billboard’s Power 100 event that February. “Are we on the side of…functional music, functional content? Or are we on the side of artistry and artists?”
Those who work in the noise space, however, don’t see the debate as that black and white. “I hate that stance,” says Jordan Smith, co-founder of Arden Records, a label which puts out lo-fi, ambient and field recordings. “We’ve done a lot of nature stuff, including a project with the National Parks, where we’ve released nature sounds. Our artists will go on a hike and field record it. They’ve spent time, effort and energy into that. They shouldn’t be penalized because it’s a different way of listening.”
Some have even dedicated their life to this work. Birmingham, England-born Martyn Smith, for example, has recorded and released 30,000 hours of nature sounds, dating back to the mid 1960s, to streaming services. Smith and his team see it as a method of environmental conservation, given that so many of these habitats were destroyed or permanently altered after Smith recorded them. “When you get to dip your toe into a different world and see people who are committing so much time and energy to [these field recordings], it’s genuinely awe-inspiring,” Smith’s collaborator, Robert Shields, told Billboard previously.
Others don’t have such lofty, artistic goals with noise tracks. One music industry professional, who spoke to Billboard under the condition of anonymity, puts out white noise to make money on the side while working a traditional music job. While they admit they’ve been exploiting the streaming model, ultimately, they say, “Who am I to say what audio is valuable to a Spotify user and what isn’t? Maybe white noise is the only way that person can fall asleep.”
Grainge and others, like Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl, see this form of content not as a value add or an artistic endeavor but as a way of siphoning money away from their businesses. “It can’t be that an Ed Sheeran stream is worth exactly the same as a stream of rain falling on the roof,” Kyncl told investors in 2023. The noise issue has become one of the points of attack in Grainge’s “Streaming 2.0” plan, which aims to revise streaming royalty models to unlock more money for “professional artists” — like the ones signed to major label groups. Along with downgrading the value of noise, it also includes other suggestions, like implementing a threshold of minimum streams to qualify for monetization and penalizing fraudulent activity.
As the CEO of the largest music company in the business, Grainge has gotten his plan implemented at multiple services already, including Spotify and Deezer. While streamers are largely neutral about where they send appropriate royalty payments, as long as it abides by their guidelines, it matters much more to label bosses, who depend on the growing size and proper allocation of the royalty pool.
It’s hard to gauge exactly how much money has been paid out to noise content creators over the years, but its popularity is undeniable. On Apple Music, the playlist “Rain Sounds” is its third most popular offering. In a quick glance on Spotify, one of many tracks featured on its “White Noise 10 Hour” playlist has 226 million Spotify streams and counting.
To combat the amount of money flowing toward this content, Deezer has elected to remove user-uploaded noise content altogether from its service, instead offering company-owned, company-made noise offerings that do not generate royalties. Spotify took a different approach. While it has allowed outside noise tracks to stay on the service, it downgraded royalty-earning potential by 80% in late 2023.
According to a Spotify blog post about these rules, “functional genres…[are] sometimes exploited by bad actors who cut their tracks artificially short — with no artistic merit — in order to maximize royalty-bearing streams… The massive growth of the royalty pool has created a revenue opportunity for noise uploaders well beyond their contribution to listeners.”
While many publicly celebrated these changes, others quietly worried about it. For David Green, founder/CEO of Ameritz, an instrumental record label that has also released field recordings, “When [Spotify’s new rules around noise] were announced last year, there was a bit of fear across all providers. I think it was across the board. You’d be surprised how many providers do this type of [noise content].” Like the anonymous industry professional, many who dabble in noise recordings do it to earn additional income on the side of more traditional music industry work. “Then there was the fear of, ‘Maybe this detection won’t be as accurate as it should be,’” says Green, and it could accidentally pick up music too, especially more experimental ambient works.
For decades, musicians on the cutting edge have experimented with the sometimes-blurry line between music and noise. Musique Concrète, for example, is an experimental form of music that dates back to the 1940s and uses a compilation of raw, found audio to create a sound collage. Ambient musician TJ Dumser, who releases under the moniker Six Missing, says he doesn’t like the idea of people playing the system with white noise, but adds, “I think the only concern for me is, ‘Where is the line? How do we draw the line from noise, ambient and even noise rock? Who is to say what’s not music to somebody else?’”
But one year in, Green says Spotify’s tool seems to be accurate at drawing that line between noise and music. Spotify confirmed to Billboard that to monitor and filter noise tracks effectively it uses Sonalytic, an audio detection technology it acquired in 2022 that can identify songs, mixed content and audio clips, as well as track copyright-protected material. A Deezer spokesperson confirmed that it has an “algorithm that has been specifically trained to detect non-music noise tracks,” but that the company also can manually whitelist tracks that could be detected as noise but actually are experimental music.
While this battle over noise content hit a fever pitch in 2023, determining the value of alternative forms of audio has been a much longer-running challenge for streaming services. In 2014, independent funk band Vulfpeck released Sleepify, a silent album, to Spotify. The band’s frontman, Jack Stratton, then asked fans to stream the 10-track album on repeat overnight while sleeping to fund the band’s upcoming tour. After the project earned an estimated $20,000, Spotify removed the project, saying it violated its terms of content.
The hope is that, over time, these increasingly stringent policies against silent and noise tracks will put more money into musicians’ pockets. Spotify estimates that its new streaming policies, including but not limited to royalty reductions for noise, will lead to an increase of $1 billion available to artists in its royalty pool over the next five years.
When asked for comment about whether or not these policies had their desired effects yet, just over one year in, both Spotify and Deezer have positive, but mixed, results. A Spotify spokesperson said these rules have decreased Spotify’s issues with spam and artificial streaming from noise and decreased the number of short noise tracks. A representative for Deezer says, “The level of fraud, at least in terms of number of attempts, is not directly connected to our catalog cleaning efforts. However, we have seen that fraud has decreased on Deezer between 2023 and 2024.”
From concert films and documentaries to biopics, we review 10 other Bob Dylan movies available to stream online right now.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Amazon has put in a bid to purchase TikTok, a Trump administration official said Wednesday, in an eleventh-hour pitch as a U.S. ban on the platform is set to go into effect Saturday.
The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the Amazon offer was made in a letter to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The New York Times first reported on the bid.
President Donald Trump on Inauguration Day gave the platform a reprieve, barreling past a law that had been upheld unanimously by the Supreme Court, which said the ban was necessary for national security.
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Under the law, TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance is required to sell the platform to an approved buyer or take it offline in the United States. Trump has suggested he could further extend the pause on the ban, but he has also said he expects a deal to be forged by Saturday.
Amazon declined to comment. TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The existence of an Amazon bid surfaced as Trump was scheduled on Wednesday to meet with senior officials to discuss the coming deadline for a TikTok sale.
Although it’s unclear if ByteDance plans to sell TikTok, several possible bidders have come forward in the past few months. Among the possible investors are the software company Oracle and the investment firm Blackstone. Oracle announced in 2020 that it had a 12.5% stake in TikTok Global after securing its business as the app’s cloud technology provider.
In January, the artificial intelligence startup Perplexity AI presented ByteDance with a merger proposal that would combine Perplexity’s business with TikTok’s U.S. operation. Last month, the company outlined its approach to rebuilding TikTok in a blog post, arguing that it is “singularly positioned to rebuild the TikTok algorithm without creating a monopoly.”
“Any acquisition by a consortium of investors could in effect keep ByteDance in control of the algorithm, while any acquisition by a competitor would likely create a monopoly in the short form video and information space,” Perplexity said in its post.
The company said it would remake the TikTok algorithm and ensure that infrastructure would be developed and maintained in “American data centers with American oversight, ensuring alignment with domestic privacy standards and regulations.”
Other potential bidders include a consortium organized by billionaire businessman Frank McCourt, which recently recruited Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian as a strategic adviser. Investors in the consortium say they’ve offered ByteDance $20 billion in cash for TikTok’s U.S. platform. Jesse Tinsley, the founder of the payroll firm Employer.com, says he too has organized a consortium and is offering ByteDance more than $30 billion for the platform. Wyoming small business owner Reid Rasner has also announced that he offered ByteDance roughly $47.5 billion.
Both the FBI and the Federal Communications Commission have warned that ByteDance could share user data — such as browsing history, location and biometric identifiers — with China’s authoritarian government. TikTok said it has never done that and would not do so if asked. The U.S. government has not provided evidence of that happening.
Trump has millions of followers on TikTok and has credited the trendsetting platform with helping him gain traction among young voters.
During his first term, he took a more skeptical view of TikTok and issued executive orders banning dealings with ByteDance as well as the owners of the Chinese messaging app WeChat.
This story was originally published by The Associated Press.
While some recent industry statistics show a slowdown in the U.S. streaming market, spending remains quite healthy, according to new figures from market research firm MusicWatch.
Most notably, 50 million more Americans bought recorded music in 2024 than a decade earlier. Products included in that count are on-demand music subscriptions, paid internet radio subscriptions, physical formats such as CDs and LPs, and digital downloads. Some of that increase can be attributed to population growth over the last 10 years. The total U.S. population — including people under 13 and non-internet users who are typically not counted in market research surveys — grew by roughly 19 million over that period. But since the number of music buyers far outstripped population growth, most of the growth came from an increased interest in music products.
By MusicWatch’s estimate, about half of all Americans aged 13 to 70 — 132 million people — paid for a music subscription in 2024, including on-demand music streaming and satellite radio. Recently released RIAA figures put the subscription count at 100 million, which is an average for 2024 (meaning the subscriber count at the end of the year was higher than 100 million). Satellite radio company SiriusXM finished 2024 with 31.6 million self-pay subscribers, according to its latest financial results.
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Not only are more Americans spending money on music, they’re spending more — even after adjusting for inflation. Americans spent $112 per capita on recorded music in 2024, up nearly 10% from $102 in 2023, according to MusicWatch. Back in 2014, per-capita spending was approximately $80, which is about $91 when adjusted for inflation. Taking inflation into account, per-capita spending increased approximately 32% over the past decade.
Live music spending fared even better than recorded music, jumping 17% to $281. Ticket inflation explains some of that increase, but not all — the percentage of people who bought a ticket rose to 56% from 51% in 2023. What’s more, spending on music merchandise such as T-shirts rose 45%.
Over the last decade, streaming turned U.S. recorded music revenue growth positive after an approximately 15-year downslide caused by digital piracy and a shift to selling single-track downloads rather than albums. Digital download sales have declined sharply over the past decade — from $2.3 billion in 2015 to $329 million in 2024, according to the RIAA — and piracy still exists despite the sharp rise in music buyers. MusicWatch found that 14 million Americans admitted to stream ripping music files in 2024. “Music piracy isn’t the scourge it was 20 years ago,” MusicWatch wrote, “but it’s still happening.”
Music piracy isn’t the only old habit that dies hard. While CD sales have fallen 61% over the last decade, 56 million Americans still listen to CDs in the car, and 48 million listen to digital downloads while driving. Both numbers are in decline, MusicWatch notes, “but nevertheless they represent a massive pool of listeners.”
GOIÂNIA, Brazil — As the global pandemic deepened, Brazilian country artist Alex Ronaldo watched his career ebb away. So the veteran music writer cooked up a side hustle: He took hundreds of demos he regularly received from aspiring artists — mostly in the sertanejo, or Brazilian country, genre — and put them out on Spotify under false names and fake artists, with fake cover art, all created from his luxury seafront condo.
In December, three years after he launched his illegal money-making scheme, prosecutors arrested and charged Ronaldo Torres de Souza, who performs under the moniker Alex Ronaldo, in the first prosecution of an individual in Brazil for streaming fraud. The sertanejo artist confessed to uploading more than 400 tracks by other artists under false names to Spotify that generated more than 28 million fake plays — using artificial intelligence to aid in the scheme.
The major labels, via Brazil’s recorded music association Pro-Música Brasil, along with Brazil’s anti-piracy body Association for the Protection of Phonographic Intellectual Rights (APDIF), cooperated on what they are calling Operation Out of Tune. “Simply put, streaming manipulation of this nature is theft — stealing directly from artists and betraying fans,” Victoria Oakley, the CEO of IFPI in London, said in a statement last week.
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As seemingly important as his arrest was, in Goiânia — the “Nashville of Brazil” — the case underscored to music executives how little was being done to tackle a more serious problem plaguing the Brazilian industry: the buying of fake streams by artists, managers and music label executives to prop up artists on Spotify’s charts.
Brazilian music executives said a furious scramble for Spotify chart dominance is spurring artists to spend tens of thousands of dollars on fake plays for individual songs — and Spotify is doing little that they can see to stop it.
“Everything is bought and paid for here,” Gláucio Toledo, a sertanejo music manager, said about music streaming success in Brazil. “I know three people who got rich selling fake playlists. It has become an unfair competition in the digital world.”
Other industry observers are hearing similar concerns. “Brazil is on a lot of people’s minds across the industry, big and small,” says Morgan Hayduk, the co-CEO and co-founder of Beatdapp, a Vancouver-based company that specializes in streaming fraud detection. “When we talk to rights holders or to platforms there are questions about what they see in their Brazil data.”
One top music manager told Billboard that so-called stream brokers peddle 1 million streams for 50,000 reais ($8,750). That level of spending outpaces the average of around $4,000 that Spotify pays out for a million streams, this person said. The typical fraud scheme involves accessing fake-stream farms in Brazil or outside the country that use dozens if not hundreds of laptops and cell phones to run Spotify accounts continuously.
Spotify says it “invests heavily in automated and manual reviews” to prevent, detect and mitigate artificial streams on its platform. “When we identify stream manipulation, we take action that includes removing streaming numbers and withholding royalties,” a Spotify spokesperson said. “Bad actors are always evolving, so our dedicated fraud prevention team is always working to identify new trends and methods used to game the system.”
Nevertheless, competition to out-buy other sertanejo artists “is hindering other genres, such as funk, pop, MPB and electronic music, which sometimes struggle to make it into the top 10 or 15 because [the lists] are inflated,” says Raphael Ribeiro, CEO of AudioMix Digital, the Goiânia-based label and artist management company that launched several big sertanejo artists, including Gusttavo Lima, Jorge & Mateus and Wesley Safadão.
Fraud is also limiting the barriers to entry for less wealthy artists in Brazil. “Nowadays, it’s hard for an artist to break through if you don’t get involved in a scheme, if you don’t pay for streams, if you don’t create a bot, because there’s a lot of money involved,” Ribeiro says.
Heavy stream-buying could at least partly explain sertanejo’s dominance in Brazil over the past several years. Seven of the top 10 most-played tracks on streaming platforms last year were sertanejo, according to Pro-Música, with Felipe & Rodrigo’s live version of “Gosta de Rua” grabbing the top spot.
In Brazil, streaming success on Spotify strongly impacts touring and sponsorship fees for artists. Top concert earners include Jorge & Mateus and Lima, the latter of whom is so popular that until two weeks ago he was publicly weighing a run for president of the country next year. (He said he would focus instead on conquering the Spanish-language Latino music market.) Reaching the top 50 on Spotify typically boosts an artist’s touring fee to at least 300,000 reais (about $52,000), two Brazilian music managers said.
Brazil’s overall recorded music market is among the fastest growing in the world. Last year it grew 21.7% to 3.49 billion reais ($609 million) to land in ninth place on IFPI’s global ranking (88% of revenues came from on-demand streams), despite the country’s currency remaining historically weak compared to the U.S. dollar. That’s up more than double from the $296.2 million and 12th place it held in 2020, according to IFPI’s annual Global Music Report.
Allegations of an underground market in Brazil for buying and selling fake streams to prop up artists first began to spread during the pandemic, when a senior manager at a streaming platform and one executive at a major label — both based in Brazil then — told Billboard that stream-buying by big-name artists was prevalent, especially in sertanejo — and that indie and major labels were involved.
Fraudsters have had a head start on Brazilian investigators. The public prosecutor’s office in the state of Goias, where Goiânia is located, only organized a cybercrime unit last year. And prosecutors acknowledged that the Torres de Souza probe, which involved authorities in two other states, piggy-backed on reporting by Brazilian news site UOL — largely because none of the more than 50 composers who were victimized reached out to authorities first, they said.
Still, Brazil has done more than most countries.
Previous law enforcement efforts have focused on shutting down websites peddling fake streams and stream-ripping services, rather than on rooting out individual fraudsters. Pro-Música president Paulo Rosa told Billboard in 2022 that most of the illicit activity affecting Brazil was being conducted outside the country by mirror sites in Russia. Last year, Operation 404, a global anti-piracy effort, dismantled the top three most popular stream-ripping mobile apps in Brazil, while another initiative, Operation Redirect, targeted illegal music sites in Brazil associated with malware distribution.
“There have been very few streaming cases channeled through proper authorities anywhere around the world,” Hayduk says. “To see three in Brazil is still a meaningful number.”
Homegrown Streaming Fraud
That said, Torres de Souza’s case showed that a relatively uncomplicated streaming fraud operation can go undetected for years. At his apartment in Recife, in the northeast of the country, the artist, who has 13,000 monthly listeners on Spotify, used fake documents and emails to register other artists’ demos with distributors. Then he published the songs on Spotify and social media platforms under fake names and fake artists, using AI-generated fake cover art.
The heart of the scheme involved setting up 21 computers that ran the open-source program Sandboxie on various internet browsers, which could generate up to 16 virtual computers on each machine. That meant he could have up to 2,000 browser windows open simultaneously pumping out mostly Spotify streams for the music he illicitly appropriated, prosecutors described in their 90-page complaint.
Investigators found a wall of laptops generating millions of illicit Spotify streams at the condo of Ronaldo Torres de Souza in Recife, Brazil.
Courtesy of the Public Prosecutor’s Office of the state of Goiás, Brazil
Investigators seized computers and hard drives containing thousands of demos and hundreds of pieces of cover art. Torres de Souza ran the computers 24 hours a day, only disconnecting them when he traveled to avoid starting a fire, Fabrício Lamas, a prosecutor with Goiânia’s cybercrime unit, CyberGaeco, tells Billboard.
In the first year or so, the sertanejo artist relied on demos from aspiring artists to generate his illicit income. Then in the past year, he turned to fast-evolving AI programs to also create fake music, prosecutors said.
By all accounts, Torres de Souza, 47, was acting alone in the scheme. His wife of more than a decade was oblivious to what he was doing with a wall full of laptops running Spotify accounts all day long, according to prosecutors.
The scheme wasn’t always that sophisticated. The sertanejo artist ascribed fake male artist names to some songs that had female singers. And some AI-created cover art didn’t even refer to actual songs. Fake artist “Regis Costa,” for example, had cover art for “Taça de Vinho” (Wine Glass) — with an image of a martini glass instead of a wine glass — but there was no such song on the album.
Prosecutors estimated Torres de Souza generated more than 300,000 reais ($52,000) in illicit royalties from the first 400 or so songs identified. They expect that number to grow significantly when they gain access to his bank account in a few months, as proscribed under Brazilian banking law.
Torres de Souza faces a potential prison sentence of more than 10 years for the fraud scheme, Lamas said. Prosecutors and his attorney José Paulo Schneider said the music artist cooperated fully in their probe and expressed remorse for his actions. He was released from jail and is awaiting trial.
“This operation, when they got to Alex Ronaldo, was just the tip of the iceberg, but [investigators] didn’t look at the bigger picture,” Schneider says. “There are many artists who use this kind of non-organic reproduction to be able to make their songs go viral — in short, to monetize them.”
Blame Game
The length of Torres de Souza’s potential sentence could come down to who claims they were a victim, which is not so clear, Lamas says.
“There is a lot of confusion,” the prosecutor says. “The composers’ associations, the record companies’ associations and the streaming companies say, ‘We are not victims.’ But who is paying? The streaming companies, who say, ‘We don’t pay them, we pay the distributor’? It’s kind of a blame game.”
Goiânia prosecutors criticized Spotify, saying the company chose not to collaborate. “In this specific case, there was no delivery of platform information,” says prosecutor Gabriella de Queiroz Clementino. “Spotify stated that it had no interest in the criminal investigation.”
A Spotify spokesperson denied that charge. The platform “cooperated fully with the authorities to provide all requested information and certainly did provide an explanation about its processes to detect and mitigate artificial streams,” the spokesperson said, noting that Spotify “continues to be collaborative during this investigation.”
Lamas says prosecutors “are aware of other situations” involving steaming manipulation but would not provide further detail. “For us to effectively combat this, the state needs better collaboration from the companies that receive this data,” he adds.
For music industry officials who see stream-buying happening in Brazilian country music with impunity, new fraud probes couldn’t come soon enough.
“To me, the greatest harm from this [fraudulent stream] activity is that it generates a lack of credibility in the market,” says Marcelo Castello Branco, president of the Brazilian Union of Composers (UBC). “There will come a time when even the consumer will not believe these numbers.”
Alexei Barrionuevo is Billboard’s former International Editor.
At Universal Inside, held Wednesday (March 26) at the Tempodrom in Berlin, UMG Central Europe chairman/CEO Frank Briegmann showcased some of the label’s acts, updated attendees on the state of the German music market and offered a glimpse into the company’s future.
After an appearance by the pop act Blumengarten, Briegmann shared some good news about the German business. As streaming growth slows in other regions, Germany still has plenty of headroom, which is why the market grew 7.8% in 2024, surpassing the 2 billion euro mark for the first time. He also made the point that this was good news for artists, who one study showed increased their collective revenue faster than labels between 2010 and 2022.
Briegmann also laid out a plan for growth that relies on UMG’s “artist-centric model” to increase payments to acts that meet certain criteria, as well as the “streaming 2.0” idea that is intended to induce superfans into paying more for subscriptions. The label had an impressive 2024, accounting for five of the year’s top 10 albums, including Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish releases in the top two spots. Briegmann also pointed to the success of UMG’s classical label Deutsche Grammophon, where he is also chairman/CEO, as a particular highlight.
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Much of the potential for growth lies in superfans, Briegmann said, and pointed to the history of UMG’s efforts to identify, track and reach them directly. The latest iteration of that is a new in-house direct-to-consumer operation, SPARKD, which will offer artists a new service to reach consumers with both albums and merchandise sold by UMG’s Bravado, which will be integrated into the label business in Germany. Bravado will continue to do business with both UMG artists and others. The idea is to use existing data to drive more different kinds of business — which would, in turn, generate more data. Already, Briegmann said, Bravado had grown its German merchandise revenue by 50% in the last three years, thanks in large part to its direct-to-consumer business.
Universal Inside is never all business, and as usual, Briegmann introduced some of the label’s artists. He briefly interviewed German pop star Sarah Connor, who spent much of her career singing in English but will soon release the final album of a German-language album trilogy, Freigeistin. Deutsche Grammophon president Clemens Trautmann introduced the label’s star pianist Vikingur Ólafsson, and Gigi Perez played two songs on acoustic guitar.
The event closed with a brief speech from Berlin Senator for Culture and Social Cohesion Joe Chialo about the significance of the Electrola label, after which the German act Roy Bianco & Die Abbrunzati Boys played a few songs, joined for the classic “Ti Amo” by the schlager icon Howard Carpendale.
With the recent news of slowing streaming growth in the U.S. and declining global revenue growth in recorded music, one might think the trends could have a negative impact on the market for publishing and recorded music catalogs.
Think again. For a handful of reasons, industry insiders who spoke to Billboard don’t believe the slowdown will have much — if any — effect on the continually brisk business in music intellectual property rights. Subscription revenue, which accounted for roughly 66% of U.S. revenue and approximately 51% of global revenue in 2024, according to the RIAA and IFPI, respectively, will continue to grow in mature markets and elsewhere.
“I don’t think the numbers that we’ve seen are enough to make any [music investors] worry too much,” says MIDiA Research’s Mark Mulligan. “I know that a lot of these funds have seen our numbers, and our numbers are relatively cautious about the outlook. We’re not bearish, but we’re not bullish either.”
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Numerous people pointed to Goldman Sachs’ estimates — a closely watched music forecast that remains something of a gold standard in the business — that both global recorded music and publishing revenue will grow at approximately 8% annually through 2030. What’s more, equity analysts seem comfortable with Universal Music Group’s forecast of 8-10% subscription growth through 2028.
In mature markets, future growth will come from higher prices after more than a decade of unchanged subscription fees. “We’ve all gotten comfortable with getting music at what I believe to be a subsidized rate versus its value,” says Jeremy Tucker, founder/managing member of Raven Music Partners, an investor in music catalogs. That subsidy is an underpricing of music subscriptions in order to attract new customers and help platforms achieve scale. Now that there are 818 million global subscribers, according to MIDiA Research, labels and streaming services seem intent on getting more from each subscriber.
Many streaming services raised their prices in 2022 and 2023, and Spotify raised prices in a few markets in 2024. Major labels that have renewed their licensing agreements with Spotify suggested the deals allow for higher-priced superfan tiers. Additionally, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said at a March 10 banking conference that “there’s quite strong evidence that there’s a lot of room to grow on pricing, especially in … mature markets.” All of this means there will be more value coming to rights holders, says Tucker, who looks at a lengthy time horizon, not any single year’s results, when considering potential gains. “We think there’s going to be growth over the medium to long term. But, in any given year, the actual growth is not something I’m too worried about.”
Additionally, people expect rights holders will extract more value from catalogs through better blocking and tackling. While companies focused on subscriber growth over the last 15 years, the next era will be marked by better execution, says a person in the music investment field. Artificial intelligence, this person says, can help rights owners expand the global reach of their music by creating versions in multiple foreign languages at little cost. AI can also make royalty collection more effective and cost-efficient. These wins may not have the appeal of, say, a biopic that boosts an artist’s catalog. But from a financial point of view, expanding a song’s reach and cutting costs serve the buyer’s core mission of improving the return on investment.
While U.S. growth slows, much of the world is growing quickly, and Western companies that focus on English-language repertoire face a “bleak” future as emerging markets outpace markets where English-language music is most popular, says Mulligan. As a result, companies that failed to invest a decade ago are playing catch-up in markets dominated by local music. “What they should have done is started signing loads of artists [in emerging markets] 10 to 15 years ago,” Mulligan says.
Still, there’s opportunity in emerging countries and their local repertoire. Subscription penetration rates — the ratio of subscribers to the country’s adult population — are a good proxy for a country’s potential, explains Mulligan. Developed markets like the U.S. and U.K. have penetration rates in the high 40 percent, according to MIDiA’s latest data. Elsewhere, lower penetration rates suggest subscription revenue will increase down the road and, as a result, the local music business infrastructure will grow over time. Poland’s subscription penetration rate, in contrast, is 17%, Brazil’s is 16% and China’s is 13%. Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country, has a 1.8% penetration rate. India, the world’s second-largest country, has a penetration rate of just 1.3%.
Low penetration rates correspond with growth potential, as streaming platforms help fuel infrastructure growth and subscription adoption adds more value to the market. “You get this virtuous circle of influence,” Mulligan explains, “where if you establish the infrastructure to create an audience, that creates the virtuous circle of investment, where people start setting up labels, people start being able to have their careers as artists, they create more music, more of that music exports, and the impact on the global market increases. India is maybe a third of the way along in the journey, whereas Indonesia has not even got started.”
With Spotify leading the way in subscriber counts, the number of global music subscribers grew 11.6% to 818.3 million in 2024, according to MIDiA Research’s music subscribers market shares Q4 2024 report. That was about the same number of subscribers added in 2023, but where those new subscribers originated continues to change.
“The continued fast rise of the Global South is the market-defining dynamic, pointing to a rebalancing of the global music industry,” Mark Mulligan, managing director/senior music industry analyst, said in a statement. MIDiA Research defines the Global South as regions other than Europe and North America, where subscription penetration rates and prices are the highest in the world. “Revenues still skew heavily to the West but user growth is now consistently coming from elsewhere.”
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Nearly four out of every five new subscribers added in 2024 came from the mid-tier and emerging markets in the Global South, accounting for 78.4% of the 84.8 million new subscriptions last year and nearly three of five global subscribers overall. In turn, the mature streaming markets in Europe and North America represented 41.0% of global subscribers, down from 52.3% in 2020 and 62.0% in 2015.
The Global South has relatively small but fast-growing regions, often places where streaming has enabled a legal music ecosystem to thrive where little to none existed a decade or two ago. As Billboard reported last week, Mexico replaced Australia as the No. 10 market in 2024, according to the IFPI. The Middle East-North Africa region grew 22.8% while Sub-Sahara Africa improved 22.6%. China, the No. 5 market, grew revenues by 9.6%.
Spotify had a 32.2% share of global subscribers and finished 2024 with 236 million global subscribers, according to its latest earnings release. Spotify had more than double the No. 2 company, China’s Tencent Music Entertainment, which had a 14.7% share based on 121 million subscribers. Tencent Music Entertainment operates Kugou Music, Kuwo Music and QQ Music.
Apple Music was No. 3 at 11.6%, which works out to 95 million subscribers. YouTube Music and Amazon Music were tied for fourth at 10.1%,, or 83 million subscribers, each. Neither Apple Music, YouTube Music nor Amazon Music publicly releases their subscriber counts. YouTube’s latest number of 125 million subscribers announced on March 5 includes both YouTube Music and YouTube Premium, the ad-free tier of the video streaming service.
Apple Music and Amazon Music each lost nearly a percentage point of market share and added fewer subscribers than in the previous year. Of all globally available platforms, YouTube Music was the only major streaming service to post accelerated subscriber growth compared to 2023. That tracks to comments made last year by Universal Music Group CFO Boyd Muir. While Spotify, YouTube [Music] and some regional and local platforms showed “healthy growth,” Muir said during the company’s July 24 earnings call, some other, unnamed platforms “have seen a slowdown in new subscriber additions.”
China’s NetEase Cloud Music was No. 6 at 6.7%, which works out to approximately 55 million subscribers. Russia’s Yandex was No. 7 with a 5.0% share equal to 41 million subscribers. All others—including TIDAL, Qobuz, SoundCloud, Deezer, Napster and South Korea’s Melon—had a combined 9.5% share, which equals roughly 78 million subscribers.
The trend has been clear in recent years: Listeners are less enthralled with new songs. Current music’s share of ear-time has fallen from 27.8% in 2022 to 27.3% in 2023 to 26.7% last year, according to Luminate. In 2024, listening to catalog albums — releases more than 18 months old — increased by 6.5%, more than twice as fast as consumption of current albums.
Much of the music cued up on streaming services is still relatively recent: Luminate found that tracks released in the last five years account for roughly 50% of on-demand streams in the U.S. Even so, SoundCloud users are much more keenly attuned to the newest releases than the average listener — current music has accounted for more than 46% of plays on the platform in each of the last three years, according to SoundCloud’s latest Music Intelligence Report, an annual run-down of listener behavior which the company is making public for the first time.
The document “highlights some of our unique positions in the industry,” says Wyatt Marshall, the company’s director of music intelligence. “An artist might start on SoundCloud before they go somewhere else. [As a result], you get people coming to listen to new music on SoundCloud, because that’s where it exists first.”
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For young listeners, new music discovery is increasingly spread across a variety of short-form video platforms and streaming services; TikTok especially has commanded the conversation in recent years. Still, even “in today’s landscape dominated by TikTok and Instagram, SoundCloud remains a critical launchpad for Gen-Z’s emerging cult favorites,” says Corey Goldglit, manager of A&R at the distribution company Too Lost. “While social media fuels trends, and Spotify fuels hits, SoundCloud continues to be where devoted fans first discover raw, innovative talent like Fakemink, OsamaSon, 1oneam, and Nettspend.”
While SoundCloud is best known for nurturing rappers and electronic producers, it’s adding value in other genres as well: Sean Lewow, co-founder of the label Music Soup, has seen the platform introduce listeners to Waylon Wyatt and Vincent Mason, a pair of rising country artists on his roster. (Music Soup is a joint venture with Interscope Records and Darkroom Records.) Uploads of country and folk music on SoundCloud have risen by more than 50% in the last two years, while streams of these styles rose 15% on SoundCloud in 2024.
This mirrors the growing interest in these genres in the U.S. and around the world. “These scenes are attracting people [on SoundCloud] who have always been into it,” Marshall says, “but also engaging a new group of people who are discovering these sounds.”
Since SoundCloud artists and users can interact with music in ways beyond just clicking “play” and “skip” — commenting on songs, for example, or sending direct messages to peers — the platform has additional data to parse when trying to map scenes. “We look at social interaction amongst artists as an indicator of affinity,” Marshall explains. “Zooming out from that gives a feel for what shapes a scene.”
And for how scenes meld borrow from and build off each other. Historically, it’s been difficult for U.K. hip-hop to acquire fans en masse outside of its home country — even with other English-speaking listeners. The Music Intelligence Report, however, singles out two sets of British acts “that are building their sound around the U.S. underground while adding a unique English twist;” in the process, they are “drawing listeners from England and beyond.”
These two groups — the first includes fakemink, Feng, and GhostInnaFurCoat, while the other counts Rico Ace, kwes e, and TeeboFG as members — enjoyed a 71% uptick in streams in the past two years, according to SoundCloud’s data. “In recent months,” the report continues, “tracks from these artists are increasingly showing engagement spikes indicative of future success.”
The Music Intelligence Report identifies other sounds that SoundCloud believes are poised to become more popular in 2025: Vinahouse, which Marshall describes as a “hyper-speed, really energetic” style of club music that’s popular in Vietnam; Brazilian plugg, the latest mutation of a hip-hop sub-genre that has thrived on SoundCloud for several years; and shoegaze, which has also been enjoying a revival on TikTok.
New rappers continue to see success on the platform as well. The third most-played account created on SoundCloud last year belonged to BabyChiefDoIt, who trailed behind only VonOff1700 and Raq Baby. BabyChiefDoIt signed a deal with Artist Partner Group in August, and Izzy Elefant, the label’s head of streaming, calls the platform an “essential” part of the rapper’s rise.
SoundCloud’s features, especially “real-time comments and direct messaging, create an interactive experience that sets it apart from other streaming services,” Elefant continues. “These tools allow BabyChiefDoIt to engage with listeners directly, receive immediate feedback, and foster a sense of community.”
In a splintered landscape for music discovery, Lewow adds, it’s important to “leave no stone unturned.” SoundCloud “has opened our artists up to an audience that they might not have found otherwise.”
DJing just got a bit more streamlined, with Apple Music today (March 25) announcing a new feature called DJ With Apple Music. The integration allows DJs to build and mix sets directly from the DSP’s catalog of over 100 million songs.
The technology was made in partnership with DJ software and hardware platforms AlphaTheta, Serato, and inMusic’s Engine DJ, Denon DJ, Numark and RANE DJ. It expands an initial Apple Music integration with Algoriddim’s djay Pro software.
“Apple Music is committed to supporting DJs,” says Stephen Campbell, Apple Music’s global head of dance, electronic & DJ Mixes. “With this latest integration, we’re taking that commitment even further—seamlessly connecting Apple Music with the industry’s leading DJ software and hardware. This innovation brings the full power of Apple Music into the creative workflow, making it easier than ever for DJs to access, play, and discover music in real time.”
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“The integration of djay with Apple Music across mobile, desktop, and spatial devices opens up a world of creative possibilities for both beginners and seasoned pros,” adds Algoriddim CEO Karim Morsy. “With instant access to Apple Music’s catalog of over 100 million songs, DJs can mix anytime, anywhere – transforming the way they discover and play their favorite music. Whether using Automix for a seamless, hands-free experience or crafting their own unique sets with djay’s powerful mixing tools, this integration marks a major milestone in making DJing more accessible than ever.”
With the launch, Apple Music joins the list of DSPs that allow DJing directly from the platform, with Tidal, Deezer, Beatport and Soundcloud all featuring similar technology.
DJ With Apple Music expands the platform’s investment in DJ sets, as last December Apple Music launched Apple Music Club, a live, 24/7 global radio station featuring curated mixes from a wide collection of DJs. Today’s launch also includes a new DJ with Apple Music category page listing, a statement by the company says, “a series of DJ-friendly editorial playlists, along with new curator pages for each DJ software and hardware platform showcasing any mixes or sample playlists that can be used to practice.”