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Live music companies’ stocks fell an average of 4.4% on this week’s Billboard Global Music Index despite their optimism about sustained consumer spending and healthy revenue and ticket sales in the second half of the year. While Live Nation shares rose 0.5% to $84.79, the other promoters and ticketing companies in the index had down weeks: Madison Square Garden Entertainment fell 2.7%, CTS Eventim dropped 5.7% and Sphere Entertainment Co. plunged 9.6%.
Sphere Entertainment shares have gained over 19% since the company turned on the external display on its state-of-the-art Las Vegas venue and showcased the potential inside the structure on July 5. The company’s second quarter results, released Tuesday, showed revenue of $129.1 million — with the Sphere contributing just $700,000 and the remainder coming from MSG Networks. Sphere’s share price rose nearly 8% to $39.58 following Tuesday’s earnings results but fell nearly 15% over the next three days. The $2.3-billion Sphere will open on Sept. 29 with a 25-date residency by U2.
iHeartMedia shares rose 6.6% for the week to close at $3.56 on Friday (Aug. 25), making the radio giant the week’s greatest gainer on the Billboard Global Music Index. However, radio companies’ struggle with weak national advertising has hurt their share prices overall in 2023. Year to date through Friday, iHeartMedia was down 41.9% and Cumulus Media had lost 41.9%. Audacy, troubled by debt on top of the soft advertising market, was de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange on May 16 and currently trades over the counter at 75 cents per share despite a reverse stock split on June 30 raising the price from 7 cents to $2.13. Audacy was removed from the Billboard Global Music Index following the de-listing.
Overall, the 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index was flat this week at 1,298.80. Ten stocks finished the week in positive territory, ten stocks lost ground and one stock, Round Hill Music Royalty Fund, was unchanged. Record labels and music publishers were the top performing sector with an average gain of 1.7% and only one company, Universal Music Group (down 0.7%), finished in negative territory. Streaming companies and radio companies suffered average weekly losses of 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.
Year-to-date, the index has increased 11.2%, even as it’s now on its fifth straight week without a gain.
Stocks in general performed better than music stocks. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 2.3%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE gained 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 0.6%.
The week’s biggest loser, streaming company Anghami, fell 17.5% to 94 cents per share. The stock traded below $1 per share from Wednesday to Friday, marking the first time since July 18 the stock has dropped below $1. On Monday, Anghami announced the sale of a convertible note worth $5 million to SRMG Ventures, a venture arm of Saudi Research and Media Group. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital, growth and other corporate purposes.
LiveOne will capitalize on the booming podcast industry by spinning off its PodcastOne business as a standalone entity through a dividend to shareholders as of August 28, the company announced Thursday. PodcastOne shares were approved for listing on the Nasdaq exchange on Monday (Aug. 14) and will begin trading under the “PODC” symbol on Sept. 8.
LiveOne, which also owns the music streaming platform Slacker Radio, will issue a dividend of about 19% of PodcastOne shares to its shareholders and retain the remaining roughly 81% of the outstanding shares. LiveOne CEO Robert Ellin said he expects PodcastOne stock will be priced between $8 — the minimum price for Nasdaq-listed stocks — and $12 per share. A third-party valuation of PodcastOne in February put the company at between $230 million and $274 million.
“We will be very aggressive to continue to grow that and it’s a big part of the reason we’re taking the company public,” Ellin said during a conference call for investors on Thursday (Aug. 17). The company currently has a pipeline “of over 10 additional acquisitions that we’re carefully taking a look at,” he added.
PodcastOne has a number of popular podcasters including Adam Carolla, Dr. Drew Pinsky and Jordan Harbinger. It ranked 10th in Podtrac’s publisher ranking for July 2023. Last week, LiveOne obtained the exclusive network distribution and advertising rights to comedian Brendan Schaub’s portfolio of podcasts including The Schaub Show and The Fighter.
PodcastOne already has two important acquisitions in 2023. LiveOne entered into a letter of intent to acquire Kast Media, a podcast network expected to add up to $10 million in annual revenue and boost earnings for PodcastOne. The company also has a binding letter of intent to acquire Guru Fantasy Reports, owner of fantasy football website Fantasy Guru, that Ellie said he expects will close “in the next few weeks.” The all-stock deal is expected to add annual revenue of $2.5 million and over $600,000 in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
PodcastOne had revenue of $10.6 million in the quarter ended June 30, accounting for roughly 38% of LiveOne’s total revenue. Last week, LiveOne raised its guidance for PodcastOne’s full fiscal year revenue from $34 million to a range of $42 million to $47 million.
Separately, LiveOne also plans to make Slacker Radio a standalone, publicly traded entity through a merger with Roth CH Acquisition V Co., a special purpose acquisition company. LiveOne and Roth have signed a letter of intent but no merger date has been announced. LiveOne said it expects Slacker to have a pre-money valuation of $160 million.
Boosted by K-pop’s growing popularity and artists’ return to concert stages, the four publicly traded South Korean music companies — HYBE, SM Entertainment, YG Entertainment and JYP Entertainment — posted average revenue growth of 71% in the second quarter of 2023, according to Billboard’s analysis of their recent earnings reports.
Sky-high growth rates in recent quarters have helped make the K-pop companies a wise investment in 2023: Through Wednesday (Aug. 16), the four share prices increased an average of 63.6% year to date, adding more than $4.7 billion in market capitalization cumulatively to the companies’ stocks. In contrast, stocks of the two largest standalone music companies, Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, have gained 3.6% and lost 6%, respectively, year-to-date through Tuesday (Aug. 15).
In terms of revenue growth, the leader in the second quarter was JYP Entertainment, home to the groups Stray Kids and Twice. JYP’s revenue grew 124% to 151.7 billion won ($115.2 million), with new albums by Stray Kids, Twice and NMixx driving a 298% increase in physical sales to 74.1 billion won ($56.3 million). Republic Records, JYP’s partner in the United States, accounted for 14.5 billion won ($11 million) of physical sales, or about 20% of the total amount. Elsewhere, JYP’s concert revenue grew 44% year-over-year to a record 14.4 billion won ($10.9 million) while merchandise sales climbed 151% to 21.7 billion won ($16.5 million). Domestic streaming revenue grew 18% to 2.2 billion won ($1.7 million) while overseas streaming revenue jumped 82% to 10.3 billion won ($7.8 million).
YG Entertainment boasts the greatest share price gain among the group at 75.6% year to date. The company behind breakthrough girl group BLACKPINK, YG posted revenue of 158.3 billion won ($120.2 million) in the second quarter, up 108% from the prior-year period.
JYP Entertainment’s operating income grew 88% to 45.6 billion won ($34.6 million) but missed its 51-billion won estimate, causing the company’s share price to fall 8.2% the following day. Although its revenue grew 124% in the quarter, JYP was hurt by what it called a “temporary increase in content product costs.” As a result, its cost of goods sold rose 162% while gross margin percentage — gross profit as a percent of sales — declined 1.6 percentage points to 47.7%.
Expenses also grew faster than revenue at HYBE, where cost of sales grew 25% while sales, general and administrative expenses climbed 32%. HYBE’s operating profit declined 8% as a result, while net income improved 19% despite a 21% growth in revenue. HYBE’s share price declined just 0.9% the day after the results were released; with a 38.9% gain year-to-date, its stock boasts the lowest appreciation of the four K-pop companies.
Warner Music Group’s share price didn’t improve much this week, but its 5.6% gain nevertheless led the 21 music stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index.
On Tuesday (Aug. 8), Warner Music Group (WMG) reported that its quarterly revenue increased 9% year over year in the fiscal quarter ended June 30. That was music to investors’ ears after WMG’s revenue grew just 1.7% in the previous quarter, but it wasn’t exactly a surprise: WMG executives had previously told investors that the company’s new release schedule was weighted in the back half of its fiscal year and that its financials would pick up accordingly. And a Billboard analysis of Luminate data found that the company’s U.S. market share had started to improve by early May.
Only four of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished the week in positive territory. Sphere Entertainment Co., the company behind the state-of-the-art Las Vegas venue set to open in September, improved 5.5% to $39.77 and German promoter CTS Eventim gained 4.8% to 61.80 euros ($67.76). Elsewhere, Hipgnosis Songs Fund rose 3.9% to 79.8 pence ($1.01).
This was the third consecutive week the index declined in value after reaching an all-time high in the week ended July 21.
LiveOne shares dropped 4% this week despite the company raising guidance on its fiscal 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. In the fiscal quarter ended June 30, the company — which is behind music streaming platform Slacker and podcast brand PodcastOne — posted revenue of $25.7 million, up 24% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million, up 46% year over year.
iHeartMedia shares fell 24.9% to $3.38 this week after the company warned of continued softness in advertising. The U.S. radio giant posted second quarter revenue of $920 million, down 3.6% year over year. Other radio companies also declined. Cumulus Media fell 5.9% to $4.96, while Townsquare Media — not a member of the Billboard Global Music Index — fell 19.7% on Wednesday following the company’s second-quarter earnings results but recaptured some of the losses on Thursday and Friday to finish the week down 7.2% at $10.50.
French streaming company Deezer fell 9.4% to 2.12 euros ($2.32) this week and has lost 16% since reporting mid-year earnings on Aug. 3. The company lowered its forecast for full-year revenue growth slightly to a range of 7% to 10%, down from a more than 10% increase. Although the company’s decision to raise its price in 2022 helped its average revenue per user to increase 8.3%, its subscribers declined by 100,000 to 9.3 million from the prior-year period.
In related news, Disney shares rose 4.9% after the company’s second quarter beat earnings expectations, even as it revealed that its Disney+ subscriber count fell 7.4% to 146.1 million in the second quarter. Starting in October, Disney will raise the prices for both ad-free and ad-supported tiers of Disney+ and Hulu by at least 20%. Following the price increases, ad-free Disney+ will cost $13.99 per month and ad-free Hulu will cost $17.99 per month.
Music services have been far more hesitant than streaming video-on-demand services to raise prices. Spotify just increased its individual plan price in the United States — by $1 to $10.99 — for the first time since launching in 2011. By contrast, Hulu last raised its prices in October 2022 and has increased its the price of its ad-free tier by 39% in less than a year.
Music stocks’ decline mirrored stocks’ broad declines this week. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was down 0.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.4%. News that the U.S. producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices, rose 3% in July — the biggest one-month gain since January — was a factor in U.S. stock prices falling Friday.
SM Entertainment’s second quarter earnings, which were announced Wednesday (Aug. 2), helped shares of the K-pop music company, home to such acts as NCT Dream and Red Velvet, gain 7.6% to 137,700 won ($105.59) this week. That made it the top performer of the 21 stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index this week. The […]
Radio companies, suffering from sluggish radio advertising and underwhelming stock prices, might be starting to see the light. B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day expects national advertising to pick up in the second half of 2023. That hint of optimism, along with Cumulus Media’s better-than-expected second-quarter earnings released Friday, sent radio stock prices soaring over the last few days.
Cumulus’s net revenue of $210.1 million was down 11% year over year and 25% below the same quarter in pre-pandemic 2019, the company announced Friday. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $30.7 million was down 32.6% from the prior-year period, but was helped by wringing out $12 million of cost reductions. Revenue was in line with the company’s expectations while EBITDA exceeded expectations. Adjusted EBTIDA of $28.7 million was 32% above the estimate of Noble Capital Markets analysts.
That was good news for some investors. Shares of Cumulus climbed 14.5% to $5.54 on Friday and rose another 14.4% to $6.34 on Monday. Even after Cumulus gave back some of those gains on Tuesday (Aug. 1) and dropped 11.7% to $5.60, its share price was more than 2.5 times above the 52-week low of $2.57 from May 9. On Monday, B Riley upped its Cumulus price target from $10 to $11 — implying 96% upside from Tuesday’s closing price — and maintained its “buy” rating.
The trends could portend good news for other radio companies. On Monday, shares of iHeartMedia rose 12.4% to $4.73. Even after dropping 3.2% to $4.58 on Tuesday, iHeartMedia’s stock stood at more than double its 52-week low of $2.21 set on May 26. iHeartMedia will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 8.
For Cumulus, the quarter was all about optimizing what it can control while mitigating the downside of what it cannot control, said president and CEO Mary Lerner during Friday’s earnings call. “This proven skill set is serving us well as we make the best of the current tough ad environment,” said Lerner.
Cumulus cut $5 million of fixed costs, repurchased $5.7 million of its common stock in the second quarter, bringing the total repurchases to $39 million, and retired about $32 million of bonds at an average discount of 26%. It also announced the sale of WDRQ-FM for $10 million that is expected to close this quarter. Digital revenue of $37.5 million was down just 0.7% from the prior-year period. Cumulus’ digital marketing services businesses were up 21% year over year while its podcast audience was up 19%.
What Cumulus cannot control is the willingness of brands to buy advertising. A weak national advertising environment since late 2022 “remained the main factor driving a decline in total revenue,” said Frank Lopez-Balboa, Cumulus executive vp, treasurer and chief financial officer. Local spot advertising revenue — which accounts for 80% of Cumulus’s total stock revenue — was down 7% while soft national advertising caused total broadcast radio revenue to fall 16.5%.
Shares of SiriusXM soared 49.1% this week due to a “short squeeze” related to a trading strategy involving its parent company, Liberty Media. The stock rose 49.1% to $7.08, turning an 18.7% year-to-date loss into a 21.2% year-to-date gain.
On Thursday (July 22), SiriusXM shares increased 42.3% as 128 million shares were traded — about 6.7 times the average daily trading volume. The price fell 9.3% on Friday to close at $7.08 as trading volume reached 132.9 million shares.
As an article at Barron’s explained, SiriusXM, a heavily shorted stock, has benefitted from investors taking a long position in Liberty SiriusXM Group — a tracking that includes SiriusXM — and a short position in SiriusXM. (A short position is a bet that a stock price will decline. A long position is a bet the stock price will increase.) Those positions would benefit if Liberty SiriusXM Group, viewed as an inexpensive alternative to SiriusXM, was able to narrow the gap to SiriusXM. But SiriusXM shares have risen in recent months, turning the short into a losing bet.
Investors who short a stock must buy back borrowed shares to cover their short position. When a stock has a small public float — as SiriusXM does — demand for a limited number of available shares can drive up the price. This isn’t happening just with SiriusXM: Heavily shorted stocks helped the stock market rally in the first half of the year. “As expected, shorts are getting squeezed in these losing trades and we are seeing short covering in these stocks — helping drive stock prices even higher alongside the momentum long buying we are seeing in these stocks,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of S3 Partners, told Yahoo Finance last week.
SiriusXM was — by far — the best-performing music stock this week, as the Billboard Global Music Index rose 6.8% to 1,447.32, bringing the year-to-date gain to 23.9%. Eight of the index’s 21 stocks were in negative territory, one was unchanged and 12 stocks posted gains this week.
French music streamer Deezer boasted the week’s second-biggest improvement after gaining 10.3% to 2.58 euros ($2.87). On Thursday, the company announced it had renewed its partnership with telecom company Orange, which will continue to drive customer acquisition in its home market. Under the new partnership, Deezer and Orange will offer new customers six free months of Deezer Premium.
Live music companies also had a good week. Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. gained another 8.9%. German concert promoter CTS Eventim improved 6.9%. And Live Nation shares rose 2.5% after Oppenheimer initiated coverage of the company with a $110 price target, suggesting the stock has a 14% upside from its $96.84 closing price on Friday.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 11.8% to KRW 117,900 ($92.88) this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer on the Billboard Global Music Index. The home of groups such as NCT 127 and Red Velvet, SM got good news this week after boy band EXO’s latest release, EXIST — The 7th Album, sold over 1 million copies in South Korea on its first day of release. In the United States, the group currently has four of the top five songs on Billboard’s Hot Trending Songs chart. Year to date, SM Entertainment shares are up 37.5%.
Led by SM Entertainment’s double-digit gain, 13 of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished in positive territory this week. The index rose 1.7% to 1,355.35, its third-straight weekly increase and the sixth in the last seven weeks. Music stocks lagged behind many major indexes, however. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite gained 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 improved 2.4%. And South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 4%.
Spotify continues its hot streak by gaining 9.6% to $172.03, bringing the stock’s year-to-date improvement to 117.9%. The streaming giant got a boost this week after analysts at Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo increased their price targets to $185 and $250, respectively. Wells Fargo analysts are enthusiastic about Spotify’s prospects to improve its margins following the company’s layoffs and reduction of podcast content costs. Long-awaited price increases in the United States could improve Spotify’s gross margin by three percentage points and add nearly $727 million of revenue in 2024, according to the analysts.
Another K-pop company experienced the index’s largest decline this week: Shares of HYBE, home to BTS and Tomorrow X Together, fell 10.3% to KRW 256,500 ($202.08). The company was in the South Korean media this week following complaints of sexual harassment by security guards at an &TEAM singing event in Seoul. In a statement, HYBE apologized to the fans and explained that attendees at such events are searched to prevent recordings from leaking to the public.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ltd.’s decline of 3.9% to 0.74 pounds per share was the index’s biggest decline of the week after HYBE. On Thursday (July 13), Hipgnosis reported a $12.9 million improvement in pro-forma annual revenue million in calendar year 2022, although both gross and net revenue declined due mainly to two large, non-recurring adjustments. Still, investors remain wary of the stock, which has declined 14.3% year to date. As Billboard reported this week, Hipgnosis is shopping some assets that could help bolster its share price if sold. Shareholders will get a chance to weigh in on the fund’s future at the annual meeting in September by voting to change fund managers, liquidate the fund or stay on course.
A third music-focused electronic-traded fund — or ETF — is set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday (June 30). The aptly named MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF, trading under the ticker MUSQIX, has 48 stocks representative of the modern music business, including Universal Music Group, Spotify and Live Nation.
To MUSQ’s founder, David Schulhof, the fast-growing ETF market is primed for an index that allows investors to easily buy into the global music business’s growth story. “It’s been hard to invest in music for the last 25 years,” he says. “You had to be a [limited partner] at KKR or Blackstone or Apollo. And it was really hard to get liquidity.”
Schulhof, most recently the president of music publishing at LiveOne, invested in music assets as the co-founder and CEO of Evergreen Copyrights, which was acquired by BMG Rights Management in 2010, but everyday investors weren’t able to participate in music’s growing popularity as an asset class. “There were a lot of other private equity-backed companies, but it was hard for investors to get exposure” to music, he says.
With MUSQ, Schulhof says he’s giving “the Robinhood investor” a liquid investment to participate in the music business. MUSQ has 48 companies spanning the music content and distribution (including Warner Music Group, Believe), digital music (Spotify, Tencent Music Entertainment), live music and ticketing (Live Nation, Madison Square Garden, Vivid Seats), satellite and broadcast radio (iHeartMedia, SiriusXM, Townsquare Media) and music equipment and technology (Dolby, Sonos). U.S.-based stocks account for 45% of the index’s value; the remaining 55% coming primarily from South Korea, Japan and China.
MUSQ avoids video streaming and other digital entertainment stocks that may rise and fall with music but aren’t dedicated to music. Still, not all of the fund’s companies generate most or all of their value from music. MUSQ’s three largest companies are Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. The next-largest company by weight, Sony Group Corp., owns film, gaming and electronics divisions in addition to Sony Music Entertainment. According to the index’s criteria, a company can be considered for inclusion if it derives at least 50% of its annual revenues from the global music business, is a top five company, or have at least 10% of the global market share in one of the five segments of the music business the index covers.
“I had to include them,” says Schulman, “and I couldn’t ignore them. But I created, I think, a fair, balanced approach, which was to cap their market share on the index at 7%.”
To be eligible for the index, a company must have a minimum market capitalization or assets under management $100 million and a minimum average daily trading volume of $200,000 over the previous six months. Some small companies, such as music streamers Deezer and Anghami, and the newly public Alliance Entertainment, didn’t make the cut. But many other small, unheralded companies are among the index’s 48 stocks, including Stingray, a Canadian streaming company that services cable television networks, and Cliq Digital, a German provider of streaming services that bundle music, movies, audiobooks and other content.
MUSQ is part of a trend of music-focused funds attempting to tap into the booming ETF business. KPOP, which focuses on South Korean companies that create music and video content, launched in 2022. TUNE, another music-focused ETF, launched on June 22. Investors increasingly favor the simplicity of ETFs built around themes such as music, battery technology and sustainability. ETF’s asset under management ballooned from $3.4 trillion in 2016 to $10 trillion in 2021, according to EPFR. PwC believes ETFs will grow to $20 trillion by 2026.
“I have to believe that some amount of that money is going to be interested in music,” says Schulhof.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 15.3% this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer among the 21 music stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index. Although the company wasn’t the subject of any significant news items that typically affect share prices — earnings, investments or partnerships — its shares nonetheless rose to 117,600 KRW ($92.07), bringing the year-to-date gain to 53.3%.
It’s not just SM Entertainment, though. K-pop is booming in 2023. Shares of the index’s other South Korean music company, HYBE, gained 6.1% this week and have gained 71.5% in 2023. Outside the index, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment have gained 100.6% and 88.4%, respectively, year to date.
With 16 of its 21 stocks in positive territory this week, the Billboard Global Music Index improved 5% to 1,334.28, its best one-week performance since November. The biggest contributors to the index’s value posted strong single-digit gains. Spotify improved 6.3% to $159.99, Universal Music Group gained 3.8% to 20.16 euros ($22.11) and Warner Music Group jumped 9.3% to $27.16. Meanwhile, Live Nation gained 7.2% to $90.18 and on Thursday (June 15) closed above $90 for the first time since Sept. 15.
Two other stocks had double-digit gains this week. Streaming company LiveOne added 13.3% to $1.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 137.6%, while Sphere Entertainment Co. climbed 10.9% to $29.29. Since Sphere separated from MSG Entertainment’s concert promotion business on April 20, its shares have gone up more than 14%. On Sept. 29, U2 will launch the MSG Sphere at the Venetian with a residency that extends through Dec. 16.
While stocks were generally up this week, music stocks fared better than the major indexes. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% to 4,409.59, its best week since March. The Nasdaq composite improved 3.2% to 13,689.57, also marking its best week since March. Outside the United States, South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.6% to 2,625.79, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. gained 1.1% to 7,642.72.
German promoter and ticketing company CTS Eventim had the week’s largest decline at 18.2%, making it the only music stock on the index with a double-digit loss. As Billboard reported on Wednesday, the German company’s share price fell precipitously in the two days following a critical segment on the German public television show ZDF Magazin Royale.