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SM Entertainment’s second quarter earnings, which were announced Wednesday (Aug. 2), helped shares of the K-pop music company, home to such acts as NCT Dream and Red Velvet, gain 7.6% to 137,700 won ($105.59) this week. That made it the top performer of the 21 stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index this week. The […]
Radio companies, suffering from sluggish radio advertising and underwhelming stock prices, might be starting to see the light. B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day expects national advertising to pick up in the second half of 2023. That hint of optimism, along with Cumulus Media’s better-than-expected second-quarter earnings released Friday, sent radio stock prices soaring over the last few days.
Cumulus’s net revenue of $210.1 million was down 11% year over year and 25% below the same quarter in pre-pandemic 2019, the company announced Friday. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $30.7 million was down 32.6% from the prior-year period, but was helped by wringing out $12 million of cost reductions. Revenue was in line with the company’s expectations while EBITDA exceeded expectations. Adjusted EBTIDA of $28.7 million was 32% above the estimate of Noble Capital Markets analysts.
That was good news for some investors. Shares of Cumulus climbed 14.5% to $5.54 on Friday and rose another 14.4% to $6.34 on Monday. Even after Cumulus gave back some of those gains on Tuesday (Aug. 1) and dropped 11.7% to $5.60, its share price was more than 2.5 times above the 52-week low of $2.57 from May 9. On Monday, B Riley upped its Cumulus price target from $10 to $11 — implying 96% upside from Tuesday’s closing price — and maintained its “buy” rating.
The trends could portend good news for other radio companies. On Monday, shares of iHeartMedia rose 12.4% to $4.73. Even after dropping 3.2% to $4.58 on Tuesday, iHeartMedia’s stock stood at more than double its 52-week low of $2.21 set on May 26. iHeartMedia will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 8.
For Cumulus, the quarter was all about optimizing what it can control while mitigating the downside of what it cannot control, said president and CEO Mary Lerner during Friday’s earnings call. “This proven skill set is serving us well as we make the best of the current tough ad environment,” said Lerner.
Cumulus cut $5 million of fixed costs, repurchased $5.7 million of its common stock in the second quarter, bringing the total repurchases to $39 million, and retired about $32 million of bonds at an average discount of 26%. It also announced the sale of WDRQ-FM for $10 million that is expected to close this quarter. Digital revenue of $37.5 million was down just 0.7% from the prior-year period. Cumulus’ digital marketing services businesses were up 21% year over year while its podcast audience was up 19%.
What Cumulus cannot control is the willingness of brands to buy advertising. A weak national advertising environment since late 2022 “remained the main factor driving a decline in total revenue,” said Frank Lopez-Balboa, Cumulus executive vp, treasurer and chief financial officer. Local spot advertising revenue — which accounts for 80% of Cumulus’s total stock revenue — was down 7% while soft national advertising caused total broadcast radio revenue to fall 16.5%.
Shares of SiriusXM soared 49.1% this week due to a “short squeeze” related to a trading strategy involving its parent company, Liberty Media. The stock rose 49.1% to $7.08, turning an 18.7% year-to-date loss into a 21.2% year-to-date gain.
On Thursday (July 22), SiriusXM shares increased 42.3% as 128 million shares were traded — about 6.7 times the average daily trading volume. The price fell 9.3% on Friday to close at $7.08 as trading volume reached 132.9 million shares.
As an article at Barron’s explained, SiriusXM, a heavily shorted stock, has benefitted from investors taking a long position in Liberty SiriusXM Group — a tracking that includes SiriusXM — and a short position in SiriusXM. (A short position is a bet that a stock price will decline. A long position is a bet the stock price will increase.) Those positions would benefit if Liberty SiriusXM Group, viewed as an inexpensive alternative to SiriusXM, was able to narrow the gap to SiriusXM. But SiriusXM shares have risen in recent months, turning the short into a losing bet.
Investors who short a stock must buy back borrowed shares to cover their short position. When a stock has a small public float — as SiriusXM does — demand for a limited number of available shares can drive up the price. This isn’t happening just with SiriusXM: Heavily shorted stocks helped the stock market rally in the first half of the year. “As expected, shorts are getting squeezed in these losing trades and we are seeing short covering in these stocks — helping drive stock prices even higher alongside the momentum long buying we are seeing in these stocks,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of S3 Partners, told Yahoo Finance last week.
SiriusXM was — by far — the best-performing music stock this week, as the Billboard Global Music Index rose 6.8% to 1,447.32, bringing the year-to-date gain to 23.9%. Eight of the index’s 21 stocks were in negative territory, one was unchanged and 12 stocks posted gains this week.
French music streamer Deezer boasted the week’s second-biggest improvement after gaining 10.3% to 2.58 euros ($2.87). On Thursday, the company announced it had renewed its partnership with telecom company Orange, which will continue to drive customer acquisition in its home market. Under the new partnership, Deezer and Orange will offer new customers six free months of Deezer Premium.
Live music companies also had a good week. Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. gained another 8.9%. German concert promoter CTS Eventim improved 6.9%. And Live Nation shares rose 2.5% after Oppenheimer initiated coverage of the company with a $110 price target, suggesting the stock has a 14% upside from its $96.84 closing price on Friday.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 11.8% to KRW 117,900 ($92.88) this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer on the Billboard Global Music Index. The home of groups such as NCT 127 and Red Velvet, SM got good news this week after boy band EXO’s latest release, EXIST — The 7th Album, sold over 1 million copies in South Korea on its first day of release. In the United States, the group currently has four of the top five songs on Billboard’s Hot Trending Songs chart. Year to date, SM Entertainment shares are up 37.5%.
Led by SM Entertainment’s double-digit gain, 13 of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished in positive territory this week. The index rose 1.7% to 1,355.35, its third-straight weekly increase and the sixth in the last seven weeks. Music stocks lagged behind many major indexes, however. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite gained 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 improved 2.4%. And South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 4%.
Spotify continues its hot streak by gaining 9.6% to $172.03, bringing the stock’s year-to-date improvement to 117.9%. The streaming giant got a boost this week after analysts at Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo increased their price targets to $185 and $250, respectively. Wells Fargo analysts are enthusiastic about Spotify’s prospects to improve its margins following the company’s layoffs and reduction of podcast content costs. Long-awaited price increases in the United States could improve Spotify’s gross margin by three percentage points and add nearly $727 million of revenue in 2024, according to the analysts.
Another K-pop company experienced the index’s largest decline this week: Shares of HYBE, home to BTS and Tomorrow X Together, fell 10.3% to KRW 256,500 ($202.08). The company was in the South Korean media this week following complaints of sexual harassment by security guards at an &TEAM singing event in Seoul. In a statement, HYBE apologized to the fans and explained that attendees at such events are searched to prevent recordings from leaking to the public.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ltd.’s decline of 3.9% to 0.74 pounds per share was the index’s biggest decline of the week after HYBE. On Thursday (July 13), Hipgnosis reported a $12.9 million improvement in pro-forma annual revenue million in calendar year 2022, although both gross and net revenue declined due mainly to two large, non-recurring adjustments. Still, investors remain wary of the stock, which has declined 14.3% year to date. As Billboard reported this week, Hipgnosis is shopping some assets that could help bolster its share price if sold. Shareholders will get a chance to weigh in on the fund’s future at the annual meeting in September by voting to change fund managers, liquidate the fund or stay on course.
A third music-focused electronic-traded fund — or ETF — is set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday (June 30). The aptly named MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF, trading under the ticker MUSQIX, has 48 stocks representative of the modern music business, including Universal Music Group, Spotify and Live Nation.
To MUSQ’s founder, David Schulhof, the fast-growing ETF market is primed for an index that allows investors to easily buy into the global music business’s growth story. “It’s been hard to invest in music for the last 25 years,” he says. “You had to be a [limited partner] at KKR or Blackstone or Apollo. And it was really hard to get liquidity.”
Schulhof, most recently the president of music publishing at LiveOne, invested in music assets as the co-founder and CEO of Evergreen Copyrights, which was acquired by BMG Rights Management in 2010, but everyday investors weren’t able to participate in music’s growing popularity as an asset class. “There were a lot of other private equity-backed companies, but it was hard for investors to get exposure” to music, he says.
With MUSQ, Schulhof says he’s giving “the Robinhood investor” a liquid investment to participate in the music business. MUSQ has 48 companies spanning the music content and distribution (including Warner Music Group, Believe), digital music (Spotify, Tencent Music Entertainment), live music and ticketing (Live Nation, Madison Square Garden, Vivid Seats), satellite and broadcast radio (iHeartMedia, SiriusXM, Townsquare Media) and music equipment and technology (Dolby, Sonos). U.S.-based stocks account for 45% of the index’s value; the remaining 55% coming primarily from South Korea, Japan and China.
MUSQ avoids video streaming and other digital entertainment stocks that may rise and fall with music but aren’t dedicated to music. Still, not all of the fund’s companies generate most or all of their value from music. MUSQ’s three largest companies are Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. The next-largest company by weight, Sony Group Corp., owns film, gaming and electronics divisions in addition to Sony Music Entertainment. According to the index’s criteria, a company can be considered for inclusion if it derives at least 50% of its annual revenues from the global music business, is a top five company, or have at least 10% of the global market share in one of the five segments of the music business the index covers.
“I had to include them,” says Schulman, “and I couldn’t ignore them. But I created, I think, a fair, balanced approach, which was to cap their market share on the index at 7%.”
To be eligible for the index, a company must have a minimum market capitalization or assets under management $100 million and a minimum average daily trading volume of $200,000 over the previous six months. Some small companies, such as music streamers Deezer and Anghami, and the newly public Alliance Entertainment, didn’t make the cut. But many other small, unheralded companies are among the index’s 48 stocks, including Stingray, a Canadian streaming company that services cable television networks, and Cliq Digital, a German provider of streaming services that bundle music, movies, audiobooks and other content.
MUSQ is part of a trend of music-focused funds attempting to tap into the booming ETF business. KPOP, which focuses on South Korean companies that create music and video content, launched in 2022. TUNE, another music-focused ETF, launched on June 22. Investors increasingly favor the simplicity of ETFs built around themes such as music, battery technology and sustainability. ETF’s asset under management ballooned from $3.4 trillion in 2016 to $10 trillion in 2021, according to EPFR. PwC believes ETFs will grow to $20 trillion by 2026.
“I have to believe that some amount of that money is going to be interested in music,” says Schulhof.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 15.3% this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer among the 21 music stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index. Although the company wasn’t the subject of any significant news items that typically affect share prices — earnings, investments or partnerships — its shares nonetheless rose to 117,600 KRW ($92.07), bringing the year-to-date gain to 53.3%.
It’s not just SM Entertainment, though. K-pop is booming in 2023. Shares of the index’s other South Korean music company, HYBE, gained 6.1% this week and have gained 71.5% in 2023. Outside the index, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment have gained 100.6% and 88.4%, respectively, year to date.
With 16 of its 21 stocks in positive territory this week, the Billboard Global Music Index improved 5% to 1,334.28, its best one-week performance since November. The biggest contributors to the index’s value posted strong single-digit gains. Spotify improved 6.3% to $159.99, Universal Music Group gained 3.8% to 20.16 euros ($22.11) and Warner Music Group jumped 9.3% to $27.16. Meanwhile, Live Nation gained 7.2% to $90.18 and on Thursday (June 15) closed above $90 for the first time since Sept. 15.
Two other stocks had double-digit gains this week. Streaming company LiveOne added 13.3% to $1.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 137.6%, while Sphere Entertainment Co. climbed 10.9% to $29.29. Since Sphere separated from MSG Entertainment’s concert promotion business on April 20, its shares have gone up more than 14%. On Sept. 29, U2 will launch the MSG Sphere at the Venetian with a residency that extends through Dec. 16.
While stocks were generally up this week, music stocks fared better than the major indexes. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% to 4,409.59, its best week since March. The Nasdaq composite improved 3.2% to 13,689.57, also marking its best week since March. Outside the United States, South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.6% to 2,625.79, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. gained 1.1% to 7,642.72.
German promoter and ticketing company CTS Eventim had the week’s largest decline at 18.2%, making it the only music stock on the index with a double-digit loss. As Billboard reported on Wednesday, the German company’s share price fell precipitously in the two days following a critical segment on the German public television show ZDF Magazin Royale.
The Billboard Global Music Index improved 1.8% to 1,270.57 in the week ending June 9, marking gains in successive weeks and four out of the last six weeks. iHeartMedia was the index leader for the second straight week. Shares of the radio company were up 13.5% to $3.54 a week after rising 30.5%. Thirteen of […]
Shares of iHeartMedia jumped 30.5% to $3.12 this week, making the radio giant the best-performing stock on the Billboard Global Music Index. The company gained 25.3% on Friday (June 2) without any clear signal — such as an SEC filing or earnings release — to drive such a sharp movement. On Thursday, CEO Bob Pittman […]
Three HYBE employees could be prosecuted for insider trading in South Korea for allegedly using non-public information about K-pop group BTS’ planned hiatus before the news was given to investors, according to multiple reports out of South Korea. South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), the equivalent of the Securities Exchange Commission in the U.S., […]
Stock markets ended the week on a positive note as investors showed optimism believing that Congress can negotiate a deal to increase the nation’s debt limit and avoid a historic default. The S&P 500 increased 1.3% to $4,205.45, up 0.3% on the week, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 2.2% on Friday (May 26) to finish […]