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Two weeks into earnings reports for the second quarter of 2023, the music streaming business is showing that subscriptions — not advertising — are the dependable driving force behind the industry’s growth.
Subscriptions — which accounted for 65% of the U.S. recorded music business in 2022, up from 63% in 2021, according to the RIAA — aren’t affected by economic forces that influence how brands spend their advertising dollars. Consumers continue to pay monthly or annual fees for Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, YouTube Music, Deezer and other offerings. Even faced with higher prices (see “pricing power” below), more people are opting for subscription services.
More information will be gleaned in the coming weeks from earnings results from Warner Music Group (Aug. 8), HYBE (Aug. 8), Sony Music Entertainment (Aug. 9), Tencent Music Entertainment (Aug. 15), Cloud Music (Aug. 24) and Anghami (no date set).
Based on earnings by Universal Music Group, Spotify, Deezer, Believe and Reservoir Media, here are three takeaways from reported results through Aug 4.
The subscription market is holding up well. Spotify beat expectations for both monthly active users (MAUs) and subscribers, “aided by improved retention and marketing efficiencies,” the company explained in its July 25 shareholder presentation. Spotify’s premium subscribers grew 17% year-over-year to 220 million, beating its guidance of 217 million. Spotify’s MAUs increased 27% year-over-year to 551 million compared to guidance of 530 million. Universal Music Group attributed subscription growth in its recorded music segment — 13% in the second quarter and 11.6% in the first half of the year — to “broad-based growth in subscribers across all major global platform partners.” Reservoir Media CEO Golnar Khosrowshahi cited Spotify’s “higher than expected subscriber numbers” in the company’s Aug. 2 earnings call and said its strong quarterly results “reflect increasing demand trends for streaming music globally.” Not all subscription services made gains, though. Deezer lost 100,000 subscribers from June 30, 2022, to June 30, 2023, and Pandora ended the quarter with 6.2 million subscribers, down 100,000 from 6.3 million a year earlier.
Services have pricing power. Spotify raised its individual subscription plan in the U.S. on July 24 to great fanfare. After all, the price had gone unchanged since the service launched in the United States in 2011, although the family plan price increased by $2 per month in 2021. Spotify is relatively late to the game, though. Deezer raised its price from 9.99 euros to 10.99 euros in January 2022 — a major factor in the company’s direct subscriber average revenue per user climbing 4.9% year over year. Apple Music and Amazon Music both raised their prices last year as well. And according to Deezer CEO Jeronimo Folgueira, the increase had “pretty much no impact on churn” — the number of subscribers who leave a service over a period — and “clearly demonstrated that music is highly undervalued, and that platforms like us have more pricing power than initially anticipated.” That said, Folgueira stated that Deezer’s guidance for full-year revenue growth does not include another price increase later in the year.
The advertising market continues to have challenges. At Spotify, music advertising revenue grew in the “mid-single digits” year-over-year, lower than the 12% (15% at constant currency) growth in total ad-supported revenue. That implies advertising revenue from podcasts, which was up 30% year-over-year, contributed to most of the growth. Spotify also noted “softer pricing due to the macroeconomic environment” that offset double-digit gains in impressions. Universal Music Group’s ad-supported streaming revenues were up 5% in the second quarter and 2% in the first half of the year. UMG’s CFO Boyd Muir said “it’s too early to call a positive turnaround in the market.” Believe is “still impacted by the weak ad-supported monetization,” said CFO/chief strategy officer Xavier Dumont. The advertising malaise extends to broadcast radio, too. Weak national advertising “remained the main factor driving a decline in total revenue,” Frank Lopez-Balboa, Cumulus executive vp/treasurer/CFO, said in the company’s July 28 earnings call. National brands appear likely to increase ad spending in the second half of the year, however, according to B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day.
A year in to Spotify’s partnership with FC Barcelona and the music streamer and leading European soccer club are now focused on evolving the sponsorship deal to create “cultural moments” through sports and music collaboration.
“One year ago, we said this would be more than a partnership because we like to say that Barça is more than a club and that’s important because it’s our motto but also important when it comes to partnerships,” says Sergi Ricart, chief marketing and revenue officer, FC Barcelona. “It’s been a pioneer strategic partnership. The engagement of new audiences with the club and the engagement that the content we created has seen, it’s been massive.”
The deal — touted as a new way for the streaming giant to amplify artists across the globe — spans four seasons for team shirts and three seasons for training shirts. It will also rebrand FC Barcelona’s Camp Nou stadium as Spotify Camp Nou, following an extensive redevelopment project that’s scheduled to be ready for the 2024-2025 season. The partnership kicked off with two major artist campaigns featuring Drake‘s OVO and Rosalía‘s Motomami logos, respectively, on the Blaugrana team jerseys. Rosalía’s logo was the first to be featured on both the men’s and women’s teams home kits as part of the partnership.
Following the unveiling of Rosalía’s match kit on March 15, searches for “Rosalía” and “Motomami” on Spotify increased by over 100% globally and by nearly 200% in Spain (compared to searches on March 14), according to the streaming company. Moreover, in the hour after the El Clásico match ended on March 19, global streams of Rosalía tracks climbed on Spotify in multiple markets globally, including Egypt where the tracks saw a more than 220% boost, 170% in Morocco and almost 70% in Nigeria.
“Rosalía’s El Clásico match kit drove streams and awareness because that match has two or three times more global eyeballs than the Super Bowl. These artists are getting fully integrated campaigns and it’s stuff that is enormous in marketing value,” explains Marc Hazan, vp partnerships, Spotify.
Now, with the partnership in its second year, artists such as Anitta and Fuerza Regida have visited the training facilities for the making of the Barça on Tour summer playlist . And, during the team’s stop in L.A. on July 26 for their match against Arsenal, Daddy Yankee toured the Spotify studio with Barcelona players in tow where he showed them a behind-the-scenes-look at his recording process. Additionally, the partnership will support artists on the LED boards during the Barcelona matches while on the U.S. tour.
“We’re creating a cultural moment and for the club it’s so important,” adds Ricart. “We humbly think that we’re the biggest global sports brand but how can we move into a cultural brand and with the support of this partnership we are moving that way.”
Following its more than 20 global activations during the 2022-2023 season, Hazan is looking to tap into different markets immersing in different genres. “This is a long partnership for Spotify, we’re very invested,” he says. “It’s fair to say that football and music are two great passions, so to combine the two is something pretty unique and when you have Barcelona, arguably one of the biggest clubs with a massive following, you’re in a position where they want to partner heavily and there’s a full set of music rights available, that doesn’t come up every day.”
So-called “super listeners” make up an average of 2% of all artist’s listeners, but account for 18% of all streams for the artist — a figure that can grow to 30% of all streams for the biggest artists in the world, according to a new study released by Spotify For Artists.
That’s the headline takeaway from a new report by the leading digital service provider, which focuses on how an artist’s most dedicated fans drive streaming activity and engagement on the platform. For the study — which tracked listening behavior during several different periods across the first half of the year — Spotify broke down percentages for artists based on their monthly listeners, identifying how small segments of an artist’s fan base contribute higher percentages of streams than the majority of listeners. The company doesn’t explicitly lay out how it defines a “super listener,” other than to say that it is “your most dedicated active listeners in the past 28 days” who “are also the most likely to keep streaming your music.”
While the 18% figure is an overall average, super listeners tend to drive the highest percentage of streams for the biggest and the smallest artists, the company found. For artists with 0-10,000 monthly listeners, 1% of super listeners drove 22% of all monthly streams; for artists with 25 million or more monthly listeners, 5% of those fans drove 30% of all monthly streams. Artists with between 5 million and 25 million monthly listeners also scored highly, with 3% of super listeners driving 20% of all monthly streams, while those with between 1 million and 5 million saw 2% of listeners drive 16% of streams. Both the 10,000-100,000 range and the 100,000 to 1 million range saw 1% of listeners drive 13% of streams.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, those super listeners are also much more likely to purchase artist merch through Spotify, too. For artists with more than 10,000 monthly listeners, 2% of their super listeners accounted for 52% of all merch purchases, while the remaining 98% of listeners made up the remaining 48% of merch sales. And there is a top 10 market breakdown for where those super listeners come from, too: four of the top 10 markets are in Latin America (Chile at No. 1; Mexico at No. 2; Argentina at No. 6; and Colombia at No. 7) and three are in Asia (Hong Kong at No. 4; Japan at No. 8; the Philippines at No. 10). The remaining are Canada (No. 3), the United States (No. 5) and Poland (No. 9).
Other statistics in the report: new releases can boost the number of listeners to super-status by almost 20%, while retention of those fans appears to be high, with more than 2/3s of those new superfans still listening six months later. Check out the full report here.
The study comes amid an industry-wide conversation about streaming royalties, how exactly they should be allocated and whether a mechanism should exist to reward artists with dedicated fan bases, and how that should be implemented. But super fans are boosting artists in other ways in addition to streaming numbers — CD, cassette and vinyl sales are all up this year so far, according to Luminate’s mid-year report, which it attributes to superfans, with 15% of the U.S. population spending 80% more than the average fan in a given month.
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Spotify reported its revenues rose 11% for the second quarter as surging monthly active users and growth in premium subscribers tamped down costs from staff cuts in the previous three months. The company’s total revenue €3.2 billion ($3.53 billion) was up 11% from the year ago quarter, or up 14% in constant currency, a measure […]
Spotify is launching its Most Necessary Live series of live shows highlighting regional rap scenes and rappers in various cities across the U.S., Billboard can exclusively announce Monday (July 24). Serving as a physical extension of Spotify’s editorially curated Most Necessary playlist — dubbed as “the official voice of the next generation on Spotify” — Most Necessary Live […]
Spotify said on Monday (July 24) it is raising the price of its premium individual plan by $1 in North America, Europe and Asia amid widespread calls from investors, analysts and the music industry to join other streaming platforms that have raised prices. “The market landscape has continued to evolve since we launched,” Spotify said […]
Spotify will raise the price of an individual subscription in the United States by $1 — from $9.99 to $10.99 — according to a report Friday (July 21) at the Wall Street Journal. The move has been widely expected by investors and analysts following numerous comments by Spotify executives about an eagerness to raise the […]
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Spotify was the biggest contributor to the 13% increase posted by the 21 stocks tracked by the Billboard Global Music Index for the first half of 2023.
Fueled by cost-cutting and corporate reorganization, shares of Spotify gained 103.4% through June 30. While that wasn’t the largest on a percentage basis for stocks on the index, Spotify’s size — it has the second-largest market capitalization of stocks that Billboard tracks — meant the company’s improvement was the single largest factor in the index’s gain.
The Global Music Index is a float-adjusted index of 21 music stocks. Each company’s market capitalization — the value of outstanding shares — is adjusted to remove the shares of insiders, corporate owners and long-term investors. The remaining market value reflects the shares available to be bought and sold on the open market. The index does not weight stocks to balance the influence of larger and smaller companies. (MSG Entertainment is not included in the index because it wasn’t an active stock for the entire six-month measurement period.)
Only half of the index’s six streaming stocks posted gains through June 30: Los Angeles-based platform LiveOne — with a relatively small market cap of $151 million — shot up 173%, and China’s Cloud Music improved 7.1%. On the losing end, Tencent Music Entertainment, also based in China, fell 10.9%; France’s Deezer dropped 17.8%; and Anghami, based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, lost 26.6%.
Outside of music, other streaming companies’ stocks also performed well in the first half of 2023 after losing ground in 2022. Netflix and Roku gained 49.4% and 60.5%, respectively, while Warner Bros. Discovery and Walt Disney Company — broader entertainment companies with streaming platforms and, lately, much C-suite drama — improved 32.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Strong demand for in-person experiences following the pandemic helped live-music companies recover from share-price losses in 2022. Live Nation shares improved 30.6% to $91.11, and the company had the second-largest gain in adjusted market capitalization. Sphere Entertainment, CEO James Dolan’s gambit to change the live-entertainment business, gained 31.9% after adjusting for the spinoff of MSG Entertainment in April. Germany’s CTS Eventim, stung by criticism over fee transparency by a German public TV show in June, dropped 2.9%. Live Nation’s market cap overpowered CTS Eventim’s loss, and all of the live-music companies collectively accounted for 32% of the index’s growth.
The index’s 13% gain was less than closely watched indexes such as the S&P 500 (up 15.9%) and the Nasdaq composite (31.7%). Both indexes are dominated by gains from tech titans such as Nvidia (up 189.5%), Meta (138.5%), Apple (49.3%), Microsoft (42%) and Alphabet (36.3%). Of that group, only Meta has a market cap under $1 trillion. The Billboard Global Music Index easily beat the 7.2% gain of the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap U.S. stocks with a median market cap of about $1 billion.
While Spotify’s share price of $160.55 is well below its all-time high of $387.44 reached in February 2021, it shows that investors regained some belief in the company’s long-term prospects. Spotify benefited from the same pandemic boost that carried Netflix to a record-high market cap. At the same time, investors were also enthusiastic about the potential for its podcasting business to evolve the music platform into an audio entertainment hub and improve margins constrained by label licensing deals.
Diving into podcasting required large cash outlays for acquisitions, staff and content deals with Joe Rogan, former President Barack and Michelle Obama, and Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, among others. By March 2022, investors had become impatient for margins to improve, and Spotify’s share price dipped to $118.20. As a wave of belt-tightening swept corporations worldwide, Spotify made drastic changes: It laid off 6% of its workforce in January and cut another 2% in June entirely from its podcast division. It restructured its podcasting leadership, canceled shows and consolidated its various podcast brands — The Ringer, Gimlet and Parcast — under the Spotify Studios umbrella.
Layoffs and reorganization have been especially common in the radio business. SiriusXM laid off 8% of its workforce in March and reorganized its podcast business. After the company announced it would shutter its stand-alone podcast app, Stitcher, its share price increased 18.5% in the last week of June. Its stock was down 22.4% at the year’s midway point, hurt by soft forecasts for self-pay subscribers and the weak advertising market that led to three radio companies in the index falling an average of 32.3%. IHeartMedia (down 40.6%) and Cumulus Media (34%) have also cut costs and laid off staff.
Two South Korean companies — both a mix of label and management company — accounted for two of the biggest gains outside of Spotify and Live Nation. HYBE, home to BTS, improved 62.2%, and SM Entertainment, the company behind NCT 127, gained 39.2%. SM’s share price benefited from a takeover battle. HYBE lost out to Kakao Corp. and Kakao Entertainment, which now collectively own 40% of SM, but its stock has more than reclaimed the losses suffered in June 2022, when BTS announced its hiatus.
Outside of South Korea, label and music publishing stocks had mixed results at midyear. Universal Music Group, the index’s largest company by market cap, and Warner Music Group declined 9.6% and 25.5%, respectively.