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At the beginning of 2024, the always-changing music business is going through rapid transformation unlike anything in the last decade. How music companies organize themselves is changing. How royalties are calculated and paid is changing. How companies engage with fans is changing. And investors have different expectations of public companies — more focus on margins, less obsession with growth.
Music companies’ earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2023 will provide insights into how companies have performed and, more importantly, what they expect to do in the future. Only one company, SiriusXM, has announced to date. Next week’s earnings releases include Spotify (Tuesday, Feb. 6), Reservoir Media (Wednesday, Feb. 7) and Warner Music Group (Thursday, Feb. 8). Universal Music Group (UMG) announces earnings on Feb. 28. Here are some things to watch for in upcoming earnings calls.
The scope of layoffs
In October, UMG executives primed investors for cost-cutting measures that would improve margins and allow for investments in growth opportunities. The result would be hundreds of layoffs, according to a Jan. 12 Bloomberg report. On Thursday, UMG revealed some details of a bi-coastal label group restructuring. But what’s missing, so far, are details on the number of layoffs and the cost savings UMG expects to get from a restructuring. UMG’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Feb. 28 will be an opportunity for analysts to ask the company to give an update on its restructuring plans. As Billboard noted last week, the music industry is seeing widespread layoffs despite continued streaming growth. Warner Music Group (WMG), Downtown Music Holdings and BMG cut jobs in 2023. Digital music companies have shrunk their head counts, too: Spotify, Amazon Music, SoundCloud, Tidal and Bandcamp went through downsizings of various sizes.
More troubles in TikTok-land?
When UMG failed to renew its licensing contract with TikTok, it made licensing to the social video platform a major topic of conversation for upcoming earnings calls. Analysts and investors should want to know how a company’s negotiations with TikTok are proceeding and whether to expect an interruption if the two sides cannot reach an agreement. TikTok and WMG reached an agreement in July 2023, but investors may want progress reports from other public companies — Reservoir Media, Believe, Sony Music — about their licensing talks.
UMG’s decision is not without precedent: In 2008 and 2009, WMG pulled its catalog from YouTube for nine months while the two companies’ licensing negotiations were at an impasse. In 2011, Google launched an audio music streaming service, Music Beta by Google, without licenses from both Sony Music Entertainment (SME) and WMG. When Google added MP3s to its Google Music service later that year, the SME and WMG catalogs were initially absent.
The direct financial hit to UMG will be minimal since TikTok accounts for 1% of the company’s revenue, UMG stated in an open letter about the licensing talks. But because TikTok is an important promotional vehicle and a popular place to discover music, the indirect financial hit is more substantial. Investors always want to know about direct dollar impacts of a company’s moves, and they should want to understand the downsides of leaving a hit-making social platform.
How much have price increases mattered?
Music subscription prices didn’t budge for over a decade before succumbing to change in 2022 and 2023. The big fish was Spotify, which finally raised prices in the United States and other major markets in July. A higher price creates a multiplier effect on top of existing subscriber growth and will augment what would have otherwise been record quarterly revenues. The gains should come without an increase in churn: Spotify CFO Paul Vogel said during an Oct. 27 earnings call that Spotify didn’t lose any subscribers in the third quarter due to the price increase.
For record labels and publishers, a 10% price increase atop year-over-year subscriber growth stands to accelerate revenue growth. Guggenheim analysts said in a recent note to investors that they expect price increases at Spotify, YouTube and Deezer to raise UMG’s subscription revenue growth to 14.8% in the fourth quarter from 13.0% in the third quarter.
The state of the advertising business
While the subscription market has been strong, the ad-supported side of the business has struggled to keep chase. Through the first three quarters, Spotify’s ad-supported streaming revenue increased 14.9% year over year. That’s better than the 11.4% improvement in subscription revenue but well below the 22.2% and 62.1% gains in ad revenue in full-year 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Broadcast radio has fared even worse. Companies such as iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and Audacy have blamed a slowdown in national broadcast advertising on some disappointing earnings in recent quarters.
SiriusXM provided the latest clue about broadcast advertising. “SiriusXM’s advertising revenue remains challenged,” CFO Tom Barry said during Thursday’s earnings call, “which we believe is a product of a tough broadcast advertising market.” Elsewhere, however, SiriusXM’s digital advertising improved versus 2022: Pandora had “strong growth” in its podcasting and programmatic advertising businesses, added Barry.
Some positive news in recent days shows advertising — perhaps not for broadcast businesses — is rebounding. U.S. ad spending in November was up 25% year over year, according to MediaRadar, an advertising intelligence company. The number of advertisers declined 8%, however, suggesting existing advertisers were ramping up spending.
More good news came from major ad-driven tech companies. Google’s advertising revenue in the fourth quarter increased 11% from the prior-year period, the company announced Wednesday, up from year-over-year improvements of 3.3% and 9.5% in the second and third quarters, respectively. Meta’s revenue grew 25% and its ad impressions rose 28% in the fourth quarter, the company announced Thursday.
The mission to reach superfans
Major music companies are suddenly taking a greater interest in serving superfans, those heavy-spending consumers that drive the concert and merchandise businesses but have less effect in a world of flat-rate, all-you-can-eat music subscription services. The 80-20 rule says 80% of a company’s business comes from 20% of its consumers. With music streaming, however, a $10.99-per-month service doesn’t capture a superfan’s willingness to pay more for additional value. Spotify hinted that “superfan clubs” were in the works in an announcement about the Digital Markets Act in the European Union. UMG CEO Lucian Grainge’s letter to staff in January said the company will focus on “strengthening the artist-fan relationship through superfan experiences and products.”
The problem isn’t that consumers won’t pay more money to engage with their favorite artists. The problem is no platforms have found a winning formula. Numerous previous attempts to court superfans fizzled. Drip, a platform that allowed artists to provide fans with music and other items for a recurring monthly fee, lasted from 2011 to 2016 (it relaunched a Kickstarter in 2017 but shut down in 2018). PledgeMusic shut down in 2019 amidst financial problems and allegations of improprieties. Most recently, startups’ attempts to use Web3 technologies to build superfan communities ran headfirst into the public’s sudden distrust of cryptocurrency and disinterest in NFTs. Given Spotify’s market size and resources, though, the company could make a real impact.
Ariana Grande is one of the most streamed artists in Spotify history, and she’s got the hardware to prove it. Ahead of her upcoming Billions Club episode, the 30-year-old pop star posed with her record 14 plaques from the music streaming platform, each of them representing one of her many hits. In photos shared to […]
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FanDuel is teaming up with Spotify this year for its annual Super Bowl party, with Calvin Harris and Kid Cudi announced as the headliners, Billboard can exclusively announce.
The 2024 FanDuel Super Bowl Party Powered by Spotify — which will be held at LIV inside the Strip’s newest resort, Fontainebleau Las Vegas, on Friday night, Feb. 9 — is the company’s third annual Super Bowl event and will feature a live recording of The Ringer Gambling Show podcast with hosts John “JJ” Jastremski, Raheem Palmer and “Cousin Sal” Iacono.
Last month, Calvin Harris broke the record for the most No. 1s in the 20-year history of Billboard’s Dance/Mix Show Airplay chart, as his Eliza Rose collaboration “Body Moving” rose to the top of the ranking dated Jan. 13. He earned his 14th Dance/Mix Show Airplay chart-topper, breaking out of a tie with David Guetta. On Jan. 12, Kid Cudi released his ninth studio album, Insano, which features collabs with Travis Scott, ASAP Rocky, Lil Yachty, Pharrell Williams, the late XXXTentacion, Lil Wayne and Young Thug. The project debuted at No. 4 on the Top Rap Albums chart dated Jan. 27.
Since 2021, FanDuel has been the exclusive sports betting partner of Spotify sports and pop culture podcast network The Ringer. This Super Bowl party further cements the two companies’ partnership, which expanded in 2023 to encompass content produced for FanDuel TV, including the shows Beyond the Arc with Kevin O’Connor and Through The Ringer with Tate Frazier.
The event comes just two days before Super Bowl LVIII at Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium on Sunday (Feb. 11), where the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers for the championship. It was announced in September that Usher would headline the 2024 Super Bowl halftime show. Usher also announced that his ninth album, Coming Home, will arrive on Super Bowl Sunday. This set marks his first new album since 2016’s Hard II Love, which peaked at No. 5 on the Billboard 200.
If you’re in Sin City for the week, check out our full guide to this year’s Super Bowl parties ahead of the Big Game here.
Spotify shares gained 4.7% to $214.13 this week, helping the Billboard Global Music Index improve 2.3% to a record 1,595.11. Spotify’s fourth consecutive weekly increase came two weeks ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 6, which will show the full impact of its recent price increases in the United States and other major markets.
If a rising tide lifts all boats, Netflix’s superlative fourth-quarter earnings report explains why Spotify shares posted yet another positive week. Netflix shares rose 18.1% to $570.42 this week — including a 10.7% gain on Wednesday alone — after the company said it added 13.1 million subscribers in the fourth quarter, the most since 2020, with revenue up 12.5% to $8.8 billion. Not only was the quarter encouraging for streaming in general, the video streaming giant offered the music business some insights about finding growth in a maturing market: Netflix’s growth hasn’t been hurt by either the company’s constant price increases or its recent efforts to limit password sharing. In fact, pricing played an important part in that growth.
“As we invest in and improve Netflix, we’ll occasionally ask our members to pay a little extra to reflect those improvements, which in turn helps drive the positive flywheel of additional investment to further improve and grow our service,” the company stated in a letter to shareholders. Cutting down on password sharing has made an impact, too. Netflix said “millions” of subscribers are using features such as Transfer Profile (a user transfers a profile from a shared account to a new account) and Extra Member (adding a user to an account for $7.99 per month in the United States), and that paid sharing “is now a normal course of business.”
Because of its large market capitalization, Spotify’s gain was a major factor in the Billboard Global Music Index’s 2.3% gain this week. The top-performing music stock of the week was iHeartMedia, which gained 26.7% to $2.85, putting it 68% below its 52-week high of $9.01. Music streaming company LiveOne was another high performer, gaining 13.5% to $1.51. The company announced on Thursday that Podcast One — LiveOne spun off the podcast company and remains a majority owner — reached new agreements with two of its most popular podcasts, The Adam Carolla Podcast and The Adam and Dr. Drew Show. Elsewhere, Sphere Entertainment Co. shares rose 8.7% to $34.45 following the company’s recent hire of Jennifer Koester, a former Google executive, as president of Sphere Business Operations, effective Feb. 5. One of Koester’s duties will be to develop a corporate conference business for product launches and other events.
Eight of the index’s 20 stocks fell this week — although none dropped more than 3%. SiriusXM shares fell 1.5% to $5.34; the company announced Wednesday that it would maintain its quarterly cash dividend at $0.02666 per share. Hipgnosis Songs Fund fell 2.1% to 0.7057 pounds per share amidst multiple regulatory filings that hinted at tension between the company’s new board and its investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management. Hipgnosis shareholders will vote on Feb. 7 on a proposal that would result in paying a fee to bidders on its catalog.
Stocks were broadly up in the United States this week as positive economic news made an impact on markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 0.9% to 15,455.36 and the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 4,890.97. Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta reached new highs this week, though Tesla shares fell 13.6% after the company warned vehicle unit sales in 2024 “may be notably lower” than last year. On Friday, Intel shares fell 11.9% after the company offered investors a disappointing outlook for the current quarter during its Thursday earnings release.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released data that showed gross domestic product grew at a better-than-expected annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Then on Friday, the Department of Commerce released data that showed personal incomes ended the year on a high note by increasing 0.3% in December. What’s more, a measure of how much people are spending showed that price increases have slowed. Personal consumption expenditures in December were 2.6% higher year over year (and 2.9% higher excluding food and energy). Last week, new consumer sentiment data showed an improvement in Americans’ feelings about the economy and their expectations for future inflation.
Stocks also improved outside of the United States. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 2.3% to 7,635.09. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index improved 0.2% to 2,478.56. And China’s SSE Composite Index jumped 2.8% to 2,910.22.
Spotify has outlined a number of changes it will soon be introducing for European users, including the ability to make in-app purchases, in response to new EU legislation governing how online companies and platforms operate in the region.
Beginning in March, Spotify’s European users will be able to make “seamless and secure” in-app payments for products such as audiobooks on iPhone and Android devices, the Swedish streaming company announced in a blog post on Wednesday (Jan. 24).
Users of Spotify’s free ad-supported service will additionally be able to upgrade to its premium offering through their phone (without leaving the app), while the company says it will begin directly communicating with customers about subscription offerings, upgrades, deals and promotions.
The changes are being implemented as a result of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), a sweeping piece of legislation designed to curb the dominance of tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Google and Meta. The DMA forces tech companies trading within the EU region to open up their services and platforms to other businesses and allow them to operate more freely. For companies like Spotify, the law means that Apple is no longer able to charge them a 30% fee on all purchases made through its App Store — a long-running practice that served as a source of contention between the two companies and which is now prohibited in EU member states (smaller developers pay fees of around 15%).
Although the law officially came into force in November 2022, companies have until Mar. 7 to comply with the regulations. Apple didn’t respond to requests for comment when contacted by Billboard.
“For years, even in our own app, Apple had these rules where we couldn’t tell you about offers, how much something costs, or even where or how to buy it,” Spotify said in the blog post, entitled “The DMA Means a Better Spotify for Artists, Creators, and You.”
The company goes on to say that the changes it’s implementing will mean “good things for artists, authors, and creators looking to build their audiences of listeners, concert-goers, and audiobook-loving fans.”
Some of the ways Spotify said it will be looking to do that is by allowing creators to download its “Spotify for Artists” and “Spotify for Podcasters” tools directly from its site and alternative app stores.
“It should be this easy for every single Spotify customer everywhere,” stated the company, referencing its well-publicized battles with Apple in the United States and other international markets over transaction fees the tech company charges app developers.
Last week, Spotify accused Apple of “stopping at nothing” to protect its profits after the firm introduced commission fees of up to 27% in the United States for app developers that choose to sell products in places other than its own App Store.
Apple introduced the fees following a long-running legal battle with Fortnite developer Epic Games in U.S. courts. Although Epic lost the case, a California judge ordered Apple to make changes to how its store operates, including allowing links to outside platforms and third-party services. Last week, The Supreme Court rejected appeals from both Apple and Epic Games.
In Wednesday’s blog post, Spotify said it will “keep fighting” for governments and regulators to pass laws like the DMA “because freedom from gatekeepers means more choice for consumers and positive impact for artists, authors, creators and developers everywhere.”
One front in that fight is taking place in the United States, where Spotify founder/CEO Daniel Ek has actively lobbied Congress and the Biden administration to pass the Open App Markets Act, which would disallow Apple, Google and other app stores with more than 50 million users from forcing app developers to use their payment systems as a condition of distribution. Though the bill never made it to the floor of either chamber, advocates reportedly expect its reintroduction soon.
Spotify‘s annual best new artist party is returning for Grammy Week 2024.
On Thursday, Feb. 1, the streamer will showcase live performances from Grammys best new artist nominees Noah Kahan, Gracie Abrams, Victoria Monet and Jelly Roll, among others, at Paramount Studios in Hollywood. The event kicks off at 7 p.m.
“2024 marks eight years since launching Spotify’s Best New Artist campaign and seven years that we have hosted the party to honor the nominees,” says Jeremy Erlich, Spotify’s global head of music, in a statement. “Our mission is to support new artists and artist development, and BNA is a moment to honor the best of the best. It’s been incredible to celebrate with the artists and their teams and see this event grow to what it has become today.”
“Our team has been working for months to bring this event to life,” added Joe Hadley, Spotify’s global head of music partnerships & audience. “Not only do we get to celebrate the artists, but we also get to lift up our partners on the labels, publishers, management and industry teams who we work with day in and day out. Spotify prides itself on being the premiere partner for artists of all stages and their teams. It’s a privilege to not only showcase the incredible art being made but also bring opportunities to artists that help propel careers to the next level.”
The year’s other best new artist nominees are Fred again.., Ice Spice, Coco Jones and The War and Treaty.
Spotify first hosted its best new artist Grammy party in 2017, when it showcased performances by two nominees: The Chainsmokers and Maren Morris. Last year, the party featured performances from all 10 best new artist nominees — Anitta, Omar Apollo, Domi & JD Beck, Muni Long, Latto, Måneskin, Tobe Nwigwe, Molly Tuttle, Wet Leg and eventual winner Samara Joy — at the Pacific Design Center in West Hollywood.
The Mechanical Licensing Collective (the MLC) has issued notices of intent to audit all digital service providers (DSP) that operate under the compulsory blanket license administered by the MLC since its inception in 2021.
This includes a slew of different companies that license music, including on-demand streaming services (like Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, Tidal and Deezer), internet radio companies (like Pandora, Mixcloud and iHeart Radio) and music apps (like Ultimate Guitar, PianoTrax and WeavRun). The audits are intended to ensure the accuracy of reported and paid royalties beyond the measures already taken by the MLC.
A representative for the MLC says that it will update its members on the results of any DSP audits that it conducts and will “clearly identify any monies recovered in audits on the royalty statements it provides to members.”
The right for the MLC to audit (and to be audited itself) is stipulated in the Music Modernization Act (MMA). The landmark 2018 law created a new blanket license for musical work mechanicals, replacing the previous song-by-song licensing system that proved to be complicated and ineffective for both digital services and the music business. Because of issues with the old piecemeal licensing system, a pool of $427 million in unmatched and unpaid publishing royalties had formed. The MMA also established the MLC to divvy up these royalties — often nicknamed “blackbox” royalties — and administer the new blanket license moving forward.
The news of the MLC’s auditing plans arrives a month after Bridgeport Music, the company that represents George Clinton and Funkadelic, opted to exercise its right to audit the MLC. Bridgeport Music is best known for its bullish approach to copyright enforcement, once accusing more than 800 artists and labels of infringement in one lawsuit in the early 2000s. It was also a defendant in the controversial Blurred Lines lawsuit along with Marvin Gaye‘s estate, which is believed to have greatly widened what elements of a song are considered protected under copyright law.
“Ensuring DSPs have reported royalties accurately is one of the MLC’s statutory responsibilities under the MMA,” says Kris Ahrend, CEO of the MLC. “The MLC has tapped music industry audit veteran, Jane Bushmaker, a member of the MLC’s Analytics & Automation team, to oversee DSP audits, which will be conducted by experienced outside audit firms.”
“The MLC’s audit right is a first in the 115-year history of the U.S. compulsory mechanical license and provides enhanced protection for songwriters and music publishers,” adds Alisa Coleman, chair of the board of directors at the MLC. “The audit notices filed by the MLC mark the beginning of its fulfillment of this important function.”
See below for a full list of companies the MLC intends to audit:
Amazon Media Venture LLC (AMP)
Amazon.com Services LLC (Amazon Music)
Anghami FZ LLC (Anghami)
Appcompanist, LLC (Appcompanist)
Apple Inc. (Apple Music)
Artist Technology Group DBA PANTHR Music (PANTHR Music)
Audiomack Inc. (Audiomack)
Avail LLC (The Cover Foundry)
Beatport LLC (Beatport)
Bill Graham Archives, LLC (Wolfgang’s Music)
Boxine GmbH (Tonies)
Choral Tracks LLC (Choral Tracks)
Classical Archives, LLC (Classical Archives)
Da Capo Music, LLC (Yes! Fitness Music)
Deezer S.A. (Deezer)
Fan Label, LLC (FanLabel)
Global Tel*Link Corporation (GTL)
Google, LLC (Google Play Music/YouTube)
GrooveFox Inc. (GrooveFox)
IDAGIO GmbH (Idagio)
iHeartMedia + Entertainment, Inc. (iHeart Radio)
JPay LLC (JPay)
M&M Media, Inc. (Trebel)
Midwest Tape, LLC (hoopla)
Mixcloud Ltd (Mixcloud)
MONKINGME S.L. (MonkingMe)
Music Choice (Music Choice)
Napster Group PLC (Napster)
Naxos Digital Services US Inc. (NAXOS)
Nugs.net Enterprises, Inc. (Nugs.net)
Pacemaker Music AB (Pacemaker)
Pandora Media, LLC (Pandora)
PianoTrax LLC (PianoTrax)
Power Music, Inc. (Power Music)
PRIMEPHONIC B.V. (Primephonic)
Recisio SAS (Karaoke Version)
Saavn Media Limited (Jiosaavn)
Securus Technologies, LLC (Securus)
Slacker, Inc. (Slacker/LiveXLive)
Smithsonian Institution (Smithsonian Folkways Recordings)
Sonos, Inc. (Sonos)
SoundCloud Operations Inc. (Soundcloud)
Spotify USA Inc. (Spotify)
TIDAL Music AS (Tidal)
Transsnet Music Limited (Boomplay)
TRIBL, LLC (Tribl)
Ultimate Guitar USA LLC (GuitarBackingTrack.com)
Weav Music, Inc. (Weav Run)
XANDRIE USA (QOBUZ)
Yoto Ltd (Yoto)
Universal Music Group (UMG) shares rose 3% on Friday — the same day news broke that the company will lay off hundreds of staffers — and finished the week up 6.9% to 26.95 euros ($29.54). The prospect of cost savings made UMG the top-performing music stock of the week, beating French music streaming company Deezer’s 6.5% gain and 6% improvements by both Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment and live entertainment company MSG Entertainment.
UMG first let investors know it was planning layoffs in its October earnings call. On Friday, a report by Bloomberg said UMG is planning layoffs as early as this quarter, primarily in its recorded music division. A company spokesperson declined to comment on the scope and timetable of the layoffs but told Billboard UMG is “creating efficiencies” in certain areas of the business “so we can remain nimble and responsive to the dynamic market, while realizing the benefits of our scale.” UMG’s stock gained 14.7% in 2023.
Despite no stocks finishing the week with double-digit gains, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 3.6% to a record 1,566.45 as 12 companies posted gains and eight companies’ share prices declined. Streaming companies led the way with an average gain of 3.9%. Live music companies averaged a 0.7% improvement. Record labels and publishers dropped an average of 1.5%. Radio companies lost an average of 4%.
Music stocks topped the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite, which gained 3.1% to 14,972.76 and easily bested the S&P 500’s 1.8% increase to 4,783.83. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 7,624.93. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dropped 2.1% to 2,525.05.
The index got a big lift from Spotify’s 4.9% gain to $203.03 this week. Spotify has surged 12.4% since it announced layoffs on December 4 and pledged to operate more efficiently. On Thursday, Spotify closed above $200 for the first time since Feb. 1, 2022. At Friday’s closing price, the stock is up 120.5% in the last 52 weeks.
Live Nation finished the week up 1.6% to $90.66 after Roth analyst Eric Handler upgraded the stock to “buy” and increased the price target from $92 to $114. The $114 price target implies a nearly 26% upside from Friday’s closing price.
Shares of French music company Believe fell 10.5% to 8.97 euros ($9.83) on Friday’s news that the company’s investors were pursuing taking the company private. According to a Reuters report, Believe’s largest shareholders, which includes founder Denis Ladegaillerie and U.S. investment firm TCV, have been working with advisors to gauge the interest of private equity firms. In the first nine months of 2023, Believe, the owner of digital distributor TuneCore and record labels such as PlayTwo and Jo&Co, had revenue of 630.4 million euros ($691 million), up 14.8% year over year.
While other companies in recorded music and publishing posted gains this week, K-pop stocks were down across the board. HYBE’s 2% decline to 247,000 won ($188.05) was the best of the four South Korean music companies. JYP Entertainment fell 8.3% to 96,600 won ($73.54). Two others each dropped 5.9%: SM Entertainment closed at 88,200 won ($67.15) and YG Entertainment finished the week at 43,100 won ($32.81).