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Record Sales

In August, Travis Scott fans on Reddit sprang into action. “$5 VINYL GO!” one user wrote in r/travisscott (234,000 members). The call-to-arms post came with a photo of a discount code that made buying the rapper’s double-LP Utopia — once $50 — about as costly as a gallon of milk in New York City. That price point proved irresistible: “This gon be my first vinyl why tf not,” one devotee responded. “Travis … gonna be selling 100k [in] his 4th week,” another added.

That fan wasn’t far off: Scott sold 88,500 vinyl copies of Utopia — 161,000 album-equivalent units overall — in the U.S. through his web-store in his fourth week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart, according to Luminate. Between the July 28 release of Utopia and Sept. 7, fans have snapped up more than 331,000 double LPs.

Vinyl album sales have been growing for 17 straight years, and in 2022 they accounted for $1.2 billion in revenue in the U.S., according to the RIAA. As the format has become more popular, a growing number of stars have moved to capture fan demand by releasing LPs of their own, often leading to eye-popping first-week numbers. What made Scott’s record rollout unusual was that some Utopia vinyl was available for $5 — both through bundle deals, where fans could get a record at that low price if they bought more than $120 worth of merchandise, and some stand-alone copies via discount codes. 

At that price, many in the industry believe the rapper was not making a profit. One manager who spoke on the condition of anonymity says he was recently quoted around $7 a unit to manufacture an order of double vinyl. In a senior executive’s experience, “it costs $4 to make a single LP if it’s super bare-bones and you’re making a high quantity,” and more for a double LP. Throw in mechanical royalties, typically paid out on records at a rate of 12 cents per song, and it’s hard to imagine that a $5 double-record could make any money. 

Even if Scott were selling some records at a loss, he’s not losing money overall: The rapper is famous for moving mountains of merch, some of which goes for a good deal more than $50. But the ability to offer up some records at $5 — $4.99 is the lowest price an album can be sold at and still count towards the Billboard 200 — shows the extent to which stars with fervent fan bases and formidable merch operations operate in a different world than most artists. And since an album’s streaming numbers usually dip as listener enthusiasm begins to wane after debut week, it’s possible that more artists might start to mark down records to help bolster demand and chart placement. 

Luminate only receives data on total record sales, not the number of Utopia LPs sold at different price points. Scott’s label partner, Epic Records, directed questions about the rollout to the rapper’s manager, David Stromberg. Stromberg declined to comment on the record about vinyl pricing or sales strategy.

Executives say that selling some copies of Utopia at a 90% discount makes sense in certain circumstances. “We’ve lost money on individual album sales for chart position,” notes one marketer at a rival major label. A star could “spend $200,000 on ads and hope they convert [into streams],” the marketer continues. Alternatively, he suggests, “sell discounted albums, you lose money on those, figure it out on the back end, and hope the chart visibility helps with the overall story.”

“It’s a marketing exercise: In a genre [hip-hop] where streams dominate, be the only one to have a huge physical number,” adds another senior label executive not involved with Scott’s rollout. The price cut leads to a “sales bump and fan engagement.” 

Sure enough, many rappers have ignored the vinyl wave. Steve Harkins, vp of sales and marketing at the distributor Ingram Entertainment, told Billboard earlier this year that “labels have said they’ve had challenges convincing artists and management to release their titles physically in some cases,” leading to a shortage of new albums on vinyl from rappers. 

There are exceptions to this rule: Tyler, the Creator, has sold more than 360,000 LPs from across his catalog already this year, according to Luminate, while Kendrick Lamar has sold close to 270,000. But Luminate data show that at more than half a dozen rap albums that earned more than 500,000 album-equivalent units in 2022 had no vinyl component, including a pair of Drake releases, Lil Durk’s 7220, and Polo G’s Hall of Fame. 

In August, Stromberg explained to Billboard that rap faces “inherent disadvantages” when it comes to “manufacturing physical music product.” “Due to the fluid nature of rap collaboration, leak culture and last-minute changes, vinyl lead time always far exceeds album delivery dates for rap,” he continued. “Pop artists are usually able to turn in their albums five to six months early and manufacture a significant amount of vinyl with a robust retail plan in place. Vinyl often ends up accounting for well over 50% of these pop artists’ first-week totals, whereas hip-hop is judged entirely on streaming.” 

Key components of the Utopia rollout, Stromberg added, were “manufactur[ing] our own vinyl” and crafting “an e-com plan to leverage day-and-date physical music for the first time in modern mainstream rap.” So far, so good: Utopia recently passed Taylor Swift‘s Midnights (around 318,000 copies) to become the second biggest-selling vinyl album of 2023, behind only another Swift release, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (roughly 368,000).  

And the big discount on Utopia helped some first-time vinyl buyers pull the trigger, according to their Reddit comments. “I am such a cheap ass,” one fan wrote on r/travisscott, “… but I actually bought a vinyl today because you can’t even get crappy vinyls for $5 nowadays. What a steal.”

“I don’t even buy vinyls,” another fan responded. “But $5 is $5.”

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 5), it’s the sales of Agust D’s debut LP vs. the streams for Morgan Wallen’s 36-track juggernaut in a race for the Billboard 200 crown.  
Agust D, D Day (Big Hit): Just a few weeks ago, the top debut on the Billboard 200 came from a BTS alum: Jimin, who debuted atop the Billboard Hot 100 with his single “Like Crazy” and came one spot from doing the same on the Billboard 200 with the album FACE. This week, the biggest new release may again come from the K-pop superstars’ ranks, as Suga releases his much-anticipated first LP, D-Day, under his Agust D alias.

The album is expected to sell well – helped by a variety of physical releases, which like FACE, came out the same day as the album’s digital release. (Recent album releases from BTS groupmates RM and J-Hope initially arrived as digital-only.) D-Day is available as multiple different collectible CDs (including exclusive editions for Target, Walmart and the Weverse store) — once again with both standard elements (including a sticker, postcard and poster) and randomized photo cards — plus four digital albums (one standard, plus three alternative cover editions sold in Agust D’s official webstore).  

The 10-track album will have to sell very well to compete with the continued streaming dominance of Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – which posted 166,000 equivalent album units in its seventh week at No. 1, boosted by sales of a new vinyl edition of the 36-track album. But if D-Day can get in range of FACE’s first-week numbers (164,000 units), it could be Wallen’s Time to vacate the top spot.  

YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Don’t Try This at Home (Never Broke Again/Motown/UMG): He’s back. Three months after his first album of 2022, January’s I Rest My Case, YoungBoy returns with his second full-length release for Motown, Don’t Try This at Home. There’s no physical release yet for the 33-track set, but the tracklist is his longest yet, and features big-name features from Nicki Minaj, Post Malone, The Kid LAROI and Mariah the Scientist — which may help the new album pass the somewhat underwhelming No. 9 Billboard 200 peak for I Rest My Case earlier this year.  

Taylor Swift, Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions (Republic): Taylor Swift already has two albums in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 this week with 2022’s Midnights and 2019’s Lover, and she may add another next week with the Record Store Day-only Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions. The vinyl RSD release of the 17-track set — consisting of acoustic live performances of the tracks from Swift’s Grammy-winning Folklore album, previously featured in Swift’s Disney+ special of the same name and available to purchase digitally as part of the Folklore deluxe edition — is limited to 75,000 copies, but that alone would likely be enough to secure a debut in the top 10 if it to sells out, as anything Swift-related seems to do in 2023. (Other titles by the big-name likes of Pearl Jam, Elton John and The 1975 may also factor on the chart next week.) 

In the Mix

Mac DeMarco, One Wayne G (Mac’s Record Label): There aren’t many albums on the Billboard 200 you could fall asleep listening to and still be hearing when you wake up the next morning – but Mac DeMarco’s nine-and-a-half hour (!!) new collection is certainly one. The epic set, mostly consisting of instrumentals and demos, is unsurprisingly unavailable for physical release and is probably unlikely to produce a breakout hit. But with 199 tracks, its streaming numbers should still be enough to make it a factor on the Billboard 200 next week.  

Twenty One Pilots, MTV Unplugged (Fueled by Ramen): Alt-pop duo Twenty One Pilots are no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, which they topped with 2015’s Blurryface and revisiting the top three with follow-ups Trench (2018) and Scaled and Icy (2021). The outfit might not get quite so high with MTV Unplugged, but the duo has maintained a devout fanbase since their mid-’10s breakthrough and may see good sales for the CD and LP-released set.  

Everything But the Girl, Fuse (Buzzin’ Fly/Virgin): It’s been nearly a quarter-century since the last album from genre-bending U.K. duo Everything But the Girl, who notched a trio of acclaimed albums in the top half of the Billboard 200 in the ‘90s — most recently 1999’s No. 65-peaking Temperamental. This month’s Fuse looks to make it four in a row, with a variety of vinyl and CD options for purchase, and reviews as strong as the pair received at their commercial peak three decades ago.  

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Source: Johnny Nunez / Getty
The music industry continues to thrive and prosper. Last year music revenue took in nearly $16 billion in revenue.

As per Variety the RIAA recently released 2022 Year End Report. Recorded music revenues in the U.S. in 2022 continued to grow for the seventh consecutive year. Total revenues grew 6% to a record high $15.9 billion at estimated retail value. Streaming continued to be the biggest driver of growth with record levels of engagement in paid subscriptions, continued growth in ad-supported format revenues, and growing contributions from new platforms and services. At wholesale value revenues grew 5% and exceeded $10 billion for the first time ever.

Streaming continued to account for a large majority of recorded music revenues in 2022. Paid subscriptions, ad-supported services, digital and customized radio, social media platforms, digital fitness apps and others grew 7% to a record high $13.3 billion in revenue. They collectively accounted for 84% of total revenues, up slightly from 83% in 2021. Revenues from paid subscription services grew 8% to $10.2 billion in 2022, exceeding $10 billion annually for the first time. They accounted for 77% of streaming revenues, and nearly two-thirds of total revenues. Limited tier subscriptions (services limited by factors such as mobile access, catalog availability, product features, or device restrictions) grew 18% to $1.1 billion. Services like Amazon Prime, Pandora Plus, music licenses for streaming fitness services, and other subscriptions are included in this category.

Revenues from physical music formats continued to growafter their remarkable resurgence in 2021. Total physical revenues of $1.7 billion were up 4% versus the prior year. Revenues from vinyl records grew 17% to $1.2 billion – the sixteenth consecutive year of growth – and accounted for 71% of physical format revenues. For the first time since 1987, vinyl albums outsold CDs in units (41 million vs 33 million). After a 2021 rebound versus the COVID impacted 2020, revenues from CDs fell 18% to $483 million in 2022.
You read the RIAA 2022 Year End Report here. 
Photo: Uforia