Record Labels
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Artist manager Bruce Kalmick has launched independent record label Wyatt Road Records in partnership with Firebird, which will provide distribution and label services.
The new label, which is owned solely by the Austin, Texas-based Kalmick, will cater to what he calls “contemporary western rock & roll artists.” He coined the term, he explains, as he tried to “nail down what this new explosion of country music should be called to the everyday listener. I think it properly captures the country, southern rock, alternative, folk, indie, and bad-assery of this very vague genre.”
The label’s initial artists include several of his WHY & HOW management clients, including Whiskey Myers, Angel White and Southall, with plans to also sign artists not affiliated with the management company. Promotions and artist development label veteran Laura Bender will oversee daily operation of the label out of Nashville.
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The majority of artists on Wyatt Road will retain partial ownership of their masters with levers to full ownership. “The more seasoned and successful an artist is, the more we believe they should own their masters,” Kalmick tells Billboard. “A band like Whiskey Myers have always owned their masters and that won’t change with Wyatt Road. But new developing artists, like Angel White, will start their career with a more traditional arrangement, yet with more upside and an easier path to gaining full ownership.”
Bruce Kalmick
Frank Dipinto
Artists on the roster will also have the opportunity to profit share in streaming royalties once they have hit certain milestones, Kalmick says. “The goal is to ensure all Wyatt Road artists get at least a 50/50 partnership, but we will look towards more favorable splits for the artist. We want to push for nothing short of endless blue sky when it comes to what the artists can earn off consumption of their work.”
Kalmick, whose management roster also includes Chase Rice, Danielle Bradbery and Echosmith, says he formed the label because he feels “the current label system is broken, where shareholders matter more than the artists and the music they put out into the world,” he says. “This conflict of interests has effectively removed the essential work needed to truly develop artists and cultivate new acts. With a pioneering approach and forward thinking partnership with Firebird, we are able to put the artists first every step of the way.”
WHY & HOW was already in business with Firebird. In 2022, Firebird acquired a stake in Coran Capshaw’s Red Light Management. Then in May 2023, WHY & HOW partnered with Red Light, with all 20 WHY&HOW staff members in marketing, creative and brand endorsements joining Red Light Management’s operations.
“Deciding to partner with Firebird was an easy decision because we both share the same ideology that artists should regain their independence, and this creates a stronger tie to streaming success and their bank accounts,” Kalmick says. “It’s our belief that extra revenues will be used to further build their career on the road. The cost to break a band all over the world is higher than ever, so we are finding ways to put the earnings back in their accounts and push them to break in new territories like New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and beyond.”
“Firebird Music is excited to expand our relationship with Bruce Kalmick by partnering on Wyatt Road Records,” Kenny Weagly, Firebird vp and head of artist & label service, said in a statement. “This allows us a greater opportunity to apply our complimentary artist-first mentality, global distribution, recorded music muscle, and wide array of internal resources via Firebird Label Services.”
The first release from Wyatt Road Records, White’s Ghost of the West: Volume 1, is out now.
Blake Shelton and his longtime label home of two decades, Warner Music Nashville, have parted ways. Beginning with his 2001 debut, five-week No. 1 Country Airplay single “Austin,” Oklahoma native Shelton has gone on to notch 28 No. 1 Country Airplay hits, including “All About Tonight,” “Honey Bee” and “Some Beach.” He’s won 10 CMA […]
Post Malone has been on a musical journey through the majority of his career, cycling through releases that have spanned hip-hop, pop, rock and alternative over the past several years. And on his latest release, F-1 Trillion, he shifted focus again — this time to country, putting out an album full of top-shelf collaborators like Morgan Wallen, Dolly Parton, Blake Shelton and Hank Williams, Jr., among many others. And the result has been one of the highlights of his career: accepted by the Nashville community, Post delivered an album that became his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in five years, and his first-ever Country Albums No. 1, racking up 250,000 equivalent album units this week.
But it wasn’t easy — the feat was the result of years of work ingratiating himself into the sometimes insular world of Nashville, with its entrenched traditions and long-held customs. But Post was willing to put in the work, making appearances at the ACM Awards, CMA Fest, the Grand Ole Opry and the Bluebird Cafe, all staples of Music City’s circuit, while his high-profile list of writers and collaborators are testament to the embrace he was able to achieve. And with the chart-topping success of F-1 Trillion, his label Mercury Records’ executive vp Alex Coslov is Billboard’s Executive of the Week.
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Here, Coslov discusses the work put in by Mercury — which has a partnership with Big Loud Records for Wallen, and also has 2024 Grammy best new artist nominee Noah Kahan on the roster — on the Post album, as well as the four albums by Post, Wallen and Kahan that are in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 this week. “Mercury Records is a place where we support our artists’ vision and are passionate and committed to each and every artist we work with,” Coslov says. “We’re a close core team that understands what it takes to break an artist in today’s climate, while acknowledging our strategies need to constantly change and evolve.”
This week, Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with 250,000 units, his third No. 1 and first in five years. What key decision(s) did you make to help make that happen?
First and foremost, we have a phenomenal team at Mercury Records under the leadership of president Tyler Arnold and GM Ben Adelson. A lot of credit needs to go to my partner in crime Tyler Arnold, who signed Post nearly 10 years ago. When we began talking about F-1 Trillion, he was already spearheading the music and set the goal in stone that we needed to make a statement with this album by bringing Post back to No. 1.
Alongside Post’s management team, we collaboratively formulated the F-1 Trillion plan. Our core strategy was built around showcasing the authenticity of Post’s entry into country music by highlighting his time in Nashville while writing and recording this album with an incredible list of collaborators both old and new. We built out a world of Post Malone’s Nashville that centered around the music through key moments curated to engage his current fan base while respectfully winning over new country music fans. Post’s performance of “America The Beautiful” at the Super Bowl was a great start, but then activations such as the writers’ round at the historic Bluebird Cafe, his Grand Ole Opry debut, the ACM Awards performance, the CMA Fest moments, the superfan underplay, etc., helped drive it all home. All of these moments were captured by our partners at Trenches, which we then used for strategic content and social moments.
Republic Corps was also instrumental, with executives like Jim Roppo, Gary Spangler and our CRO, Kevin Lipson, working alongside us. Kevin’s commerce team is the best in the business and absolutely integral to achieving the 250,000 number with their innovative strategies, physical music expertise, incredible partner relationships and relentless ideating on how to achieve our goals.
Post dropped a second, deluxe part to the album with nine additional songs, all solo, hours after the main album. What’s the strategy behind doing that? Is there a tradeoff at all with putting out so much material at once?
Post was having so much fun writing and recording this album with his core collaborators — the geniuses Louis Bell and Charlie Handsome — that he wanted to work right up until he had to stop for us to deliver the album. The collaborations were great, but the solo songs were frankly fantastic. Knowing that we had these in our back pocket, we wanted to give fans a surprise and time to fully enjoy both. It also showed that Post could carry any country song by himself.
Most notably, the album debuted at No. 1 on the Hot Country Albums chart, fittingly his first entry there for his first country album. What was most important about this pivot to country that you guys had to get right?
Our main priority for this project has always been, how do we be as respectful to country culture and Nashville as possible? From the first meeting with Post’s management team, we agreed how important it was to all of us, Post included, that he ingratiate himself as much as possible into the Nashville community. Post is a prolific songwriter and country music historian, so Nashville embracing him meant a lot to him. In many ways, Nashville has become a new home for Post, so these moments are certainly not over just because the album is out.
Post’s recent albums spanned hip-hop, rock, alternative and pop. What’s different about the country genre, and how did you guys have to move differently for this release? And what have you learned from your partnership with Big Loud that may have helped?
Seth England and Big Loud have been incredible partners and advisors to us throughout this process as well. It goes without saying that their executive vp of promotions, Stacy Blythe, and her team have absolutely smashed it with historic stats at country radio with “I Had Some Help” and “Pour Me A Drink” (currently Top 10) and “Guy For That” climbing the Country Airplay chart currently.
Between this Post Malone album and albums by Morgan Wallen and Noah Kahan, Mercury artists have four of the top 10 albums on the Billboard 200 this week. How have you guys been able to achieve that in such a relatively small amount of time?
Mercury Records is a place where we support our artists’ vision and are passionate and committed to each and every artist we work with. We’re a close core team that understands what it takes to break an artist in today’s climate, while acknowledging our strategies need to constantly change and evolve. We’re invested in building long term trust and relationships with our artists for the duration of their career.
The Wallen and Kahan albums in particular have stuck around the top echelon of the charts for an extended period now, something that is happening more and more lately. Why do you think big albums have such staying power these days, and how do you keep fueling their continued success?
Morgan builds unparalleled bodies of work that combine his powerful voice, his unique sense of melody with some of the best written songs of the modern era and the brilliant production of Big Loud partner/producer Joey Moi. The seemingly endless stream of singles from both Dangerous: The Double Album and One Thing At A Time are proof of Morgan’s musical prowess — he hears things no one else does. Major credit of course to our partners on Morgan, Seth England and his team at Big Loud, who lead on his campaigns and have been instrumental in the historic success of the last five years.
With Noah, he has truly built a world around his Stick Season album and fans relate and feel seen by his lyrics. The personal connection fans feel to him is beyond special and like nothing I’ve ever seen. The Stick Season (Forever) collaborations only added to the fan excitement by highlighting Noah as an artist’s artist. The outpouring of support from his peers led to even more discovery, engagement and critical acclaim.
Mexican-American singer-songwriter Jacqie Rivera has signed a global deal with Virgin Music Group, Billboard can announce exclusively today (Aug. 29). Her first single under this new partnership, “Si Pasa Una Mosca,” will be released on Friday.
Daughter of the late “Diva de la Banda” Jenni Rivera and sister of fellow singer Chiquis, Jacqie Rivera is best known for her participation in reality shows about her family like The Riveras and I Love Jenni. In 2018, she released a version of a classic love song in Spanish, “Qué Ganas De No Verte Nunca Más,” which her mother had previously recorded, and between 2020 and 2021 she put out a series of singles independently, including “La Razón,” “When It Hurts,” “Existo Yo” and “Hurt.”
This is her first record deal and will include “multiple albums,” her publicist tells Billboard.
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“Being a part of the Virgin team is an answered prayer,” Rivera said in a press release. “It feels so good to have people on your side that believe in your dreams. This is just the beginning for us. Thank you Virgin for being part of my history.”“Everyone at Virgin is so happy to partner with Jacqie on this next phase of her career,” added Victor Gonzalez, President of Latin America and Iberian Peninsula, Virgin Music Group. “Jacqie has made an incredible album, and we can’t wait to share it with the world.”
No further details about the deal were provided.
As for her first single under the label, “Si Pasa Una Mosca” (which means “If a fly passes by”) was written by Salvador Aponte and Leslie Laraim, and produced by Carlos Alvarez. According to the release, the song combines melancholic sounds with a moving narrative that explores the pain and resignation of a relationship that is coming to an end.
“The first time I heard the song, I was driving my car and immediately felt a lump in my throat and started to cry,” Rivera said. “The lyrics are powerful, and I felt connected to them.”Jacqie Rivera is the executor of her mother’s estate, whose latest posthumous releases have been under Sony Music Latin.
Warner Music Japan has appointed Dr. Kenji Kitatani to the resurrected role of chairman of the label division, effective immediately. Dr. Kitatani will work closely with WMJ’s longtime president and CEO, Kazuyuki “Kaz” Kobayashi, to boost the company’s presence in the globe’s No. 2 music market. Dr. Kitatani currently holds the title of chairman of […]
BMG has appointed Celine Joshua to the newly created role of executive vice president of global marketing, putting the industry veteran in charge of the company’s marketing strategy and operations across its 20 offices worldwide. The Los Angeles-based leader reports directly to BMG CEO Thomas Coesfeld, who late last year unveiled a “local where necessary, global where possible” strategy that shifted much of its recorded music division into global roles.
“These recent changes further enhance our ability to deliver top-tier service to our artists and songwriters on a global scale, and we’re excited to have Celine at the helm of our marketing team,” Coesfeld said in announcing Joshua’s hiring. “Her sharp digital acumen and artistic instincts will be invaluable in identifying innovative commercial opportunities for our artists, songwriters and music catalog.”
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Joshua started her career as a music-tech futurist — her first industry job was in Warner Music’s IT department before shifting to e-commerce roles in the company’s catalog division, Rhino Entertainment. From there, she was a top digital executive at Disney Music, where she worked across Hollywood Records and Walt Disney Records, and then on to Sony Music, where she was senior vp of digital for nearly five years.
In 2018, Joshua joined Universal Music Group as GM of commercial content and artist strategy and quickly formed her own Web3-focused label — called 10:22PM because that’s when she thought of it one night. The joint venture, touted as the first Web3-based imprint at a major label, was tasked with signing and developing not just recording artists, but also social media influencers and digital creators with a focus on “advancing new forms of storytelling.” 10:22PM arguably made its biggest splash by creating KINGSHIP, a first-of-its-kind virtual act made up of Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT characters.
During a five-year tenure at UMG, where she rose to evp of commercial innovation and artist strategy, Joshua also worked on projects with a diverse slate of major artists including Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, Sam Smith, Snoop Dogg, Elton John and others.
Joshua is a repeat–honoree in Billboard’s annual list of high-achieving women and she cracked the top 40 of the Power 100 in 2019.
“I’m honored to join BMG at such a pivotal time in the music industry and to work across BMG’s artist roster to create exciting ways for them to connect with fans around the world,” said Josua. “I’m thankful to Thomas for this opportunity and I’m looking forward to working with the BMG team.”
Anyone who has bought a vinyl record or a CD in recent years knows full well that physical music products aren’t exempt from the inflation that has plagued U.S. consumers.
In fact, the price of a vinyl record in the U.S. rose 25.5% from 2017 to 2023, according to Billboard’s analysis of RIAA data — slightly more than the 24.3% increase in the consumer price index over the same time. CD prices fared a bit better, increasing just 20.4%.
However, while music subscription prices are rising, consumers can probably expect physical music prices to remain somewhat level going forward: Insiders who spoke with Billboard say vinyl prices are remaining steady in 2024 after the COVID-19 pandemic created supply chain problems and raised the costs of everything from raw materials to labor.
As one music distribution executive put it, those supply chain problems are “flattening out.” As a result, turnaround times have improved drastically as manufacturers worked through their pandemic-era order backlogs. “I feel like the prices will flatten, too,” says the executive.
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“Our manufacturing prices have been stable for quite a while,” says Bill Hein, CEO of Pressing Business. Freight costs can be improved if a buyer books with flexible dates, Hein says, and reliable sea freight is being used for more of its U.S. deliveries. “Generally speaking, both air and sea freight are more predictable now than they were during the lockdown era, and prices are generally better.”
Outside of the music business, rising prices on everyday necessities have been a fact of life. Tired of the inflation that has eaten into their paychecks, Americans are pushing back against the high cost of staples, and companies are responding with attempts to reduce prices.
In July, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta suggested consumers had grown tired of more than two years of rising prices. “Some parts of the [Frito-Lay] portfolio need value adjustment,” he said during a July 11 earnings call. Overall sales volume was down 4% in its most recent quarter, and North American beverage sales for the company dipped 3%. PepsiCo will respond, Laguarta said, by offering better deals and increasing advertising. For some consumers, Laguarta added, “we need some new entry price points.”
Companies across the economy are sharing PepsiCo’s experience with price-fatigued shoppers. Walmart is offering more short-term discounts. Target lowered prices. Fast food giants McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Taco Bell are courting customers through low-cost bundles and value-oriented menus. And because it’s an election year, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has floated a federal ban on price gouging in the grocery and food industries.
Since vinyl prices are based heavily on manufacturing costs, there’s little to prevent prices from creeping up without sellers losing profits. Vinyl retailers set prices based on wholesale costs and their need to cover overhead and other expenses. Artists on record labels must pay the wholesale price for their physical goods and don’t have control over pressing and printing costs, says Paul Steele, executive partner at Triple 8 Management. “Physical prices for our roster of nearly 30 artists have mostly stayed the same for a decade, with small inflationary increases here or there,” he says.
But aside from run-of-the-mill inflation, there are other factors that could push the average sale price higher. Physical music is increasingly a luxury good — a high-priced collectible item with packaging to match. Artists frequently release multiple variants of LPs with colored vinyl. And albums released today commonly have the expensive gatefold packaging that was common in the ‘70s.
The way music is released in the streaming era also drives up prices. Artists take advantage of the unlimited shelf space on streaming platforms by stuffing albums with more songs at no extra cost. As Billboard noted last year, the top 10 albums’ average number of songs rose from 13.2 in 2014 to 19.1 in 2022. A double album on a vinyl record is more expensive, and as one executive notes, putting more songs on an album will often — but not always — require paying more mechanical royalties to songwriters and publishers.
Indeed, some of the most popular vinyl records of the moment are double- or triple-LPs. Post Malone’s 18-track, two-LP album F-1 Trillion sells for $45.89 at Amazon and more at other retailers. Zach Bryan’s 34-track American Heartbreak has three LPs and a $44.98 list price. And that’s not to mention the more extravagant reissues, such as a 2-LP/2-CD/1-Blu-ray package for Van Halen’s For Unlawful Carnal Knowledge that carries a $99.98 list price.
Despite the increase in vinyl prices over the last several years, sales have yet to abate. Will that continue? The answer to that question will likely lie with younger consumers who have less disposable income. Michael Kurtz, co-founder of Record Store Day, says vinyl being a premium, collectible product is toughest on younger consumers. While Record Store Day succeeded in helping turn a new generation on to vinyl records, younger people don’t have as much money and are cutting back on their purchases. “A young customer 18 months ago would come to the counter with two or three records,” says Kurtz. “Now they come to the counter with one or maybe two.”
Catalog titles are often the more affordable option and help offset frontline price creep. Michael Jackson’s Thriller can be had for under $25. Fleetwood Mac’s perennial top-seller Rumours is offered in both affordable and more deluxe versions. Rhino Records’ Now Playing series of compilations for artists ranging from The Stooges to Gram Parsons to John Prine are priced at $19.99.
The good news — for all consumers — is that price growth is reverting to historical norms. The average monthly U.S. inflation rate reached 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. This year, the average monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) is just 3.2% through July. If vinyl prices seem like they’re continuing to creep upward, the packaging and the increasing prevalence of the double album are likely to blame.
08/19/2024
Tracing the rapid ascent of the 30-year-old record executive (and son of UMG’s Lucian Grainge), from his early entrepreneurial ventures to his industry-shaking new role.
08/19/2024
Roc Nation and its music distribution wing, Equity Distribution, have merged to form Roc Nation Distribution, sources tell Billboard. As part of this new formation, all artists currently signed to Roc Nation the label will be under ROC Nation Distribution.
Sources add that ROC Nation Distribution will continue to sign artists and offer myriad services similar to those provided by Equity Distribution. Established in 2019, Equity Distribution works with independent artists who wish to retain ownership of their masters. Under the leadership of president Krystian Santini, Equity offers a range of services including in-house marketing and publishing administration. Notably, they have worked with independent artists like Mach-Hommy and Tinashe and brought Jay-Z‘s 1996 debut album, Reasonable Doubt, to streaming services in 2019.
As part of the move, Shari Bryant, co-president of Roc Nation’s record label, has stepped down from her post. Bryant became co-president alongside Omar Grant in 2019 after former label president Benny Pough departed. Bryant and Grant signed new acts to the label during their tenure, including Maeta, Ambre, Reuben Vincent and Kalan FrFr.
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Roc Nation was originally founded in 2008 as a joint venture with Live Nation to cover Jay-Z’s touring and future recordings; the company signed its first artist, J. Cole, the following year. Since then, Roc has expanded into a full-service entertainment company, with management, sports, publishing and distribution divisions, as well as a long-running festival, Made In America; the company also has a deal with the NFL to oversee the programming for its Super Bowl Halftime Show and its social justice initiatives. Over the years, the label released several chart-topping albums from Jay-Z, J. Cole, Rihanna and a slew of others; the roster had more recently included artists such as Rapsody, Vic Mensa, Belly, Snoh Aalegra, and Jaden and Willow Smith.
In March, Maeta landed her first No. 1 on Billboard‘s Adult R&B Airplay chart with the success of “Through the Night” featuring Free Nationals. Grammy-nominated MC Rapsody released her new album, Please Don’t Cry, through Roc Nation and Jamla Records in May with features from Erykah Badu and Lil Wayne.
Roc Nation Management remains formidable, boasting names such as Megan Thee Stallion and Lil Uzi Vert. In June, Megan released her eponymous album, which debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200; it featured her Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper, “Hiss.” Tinashe, also managed by Roc, regained momentum this year when she notched a hit with “Nasty,” her first Hot 100 entry as a lead artist since 2014’s “2 On.” The management division also reps DJ Khaled, J Balvin, Yo Gotti, Robin Thicke, Mustard, Christina Aguilera and more, according to its website.
For most of the last decade, three labels have dominated the U.S. recorded music business: Universal Music Group’s Republic and Interscope, and Warner Music Group’s Atlantic. So on Aug. 1, when Warner announced that as part of a management shakeup it had appointed Elliot Grainge as CEO of Atlantic Music Group, the move came as a surprise. Co-chairmen Julie Greenwald and Craig Kallman had led Atlantic for two decades, through the hardest years of the music business, to become two of the most respected executives in the industry. Now, after two years of declining market share, leadership will pass to a 30-year-old executive who comes from outside the major label system.
Within a week, Greenwald, who had been elevated to chairman of Atlantic Music Group, announced that she plans to leave at the end of January. (Kallman, one of the all-time A&R greats, will stay on as CEO of Atlantic Records, under Grainge.) And the entire business seems to be wondering, What does this mean? It’s a big gamble for WMG CEO Robert Kyncl. Grainge, the son of UMG chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge, has an impressive track record of success on a smaller scale, but not much on the kind of scale major labels usually operate. What’s going on?
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The obvious answer is that this is the acceleration of a youthquake in the music business. Streaming payouts are determined disproportionately by younger listeners who spend more time online. The industry’s top executives aren’t getting any younger, and the music business has never been much for succession planning.
One industry executive I spoke with asked sarcastically if I thought Grainge was familiar with Ruth Brown, the R&B icon who had so many hits in the 1950s that Atlantic was nicknamed “the house that Ruth built,” in a nod to Yankee Stadium. I have no idea, but I also know that most young listeners don’t, so, as much as it pains me to say this, maybe that doesn’t matter so much. Greenwald is now regarded as an industry leader, but she wasn’t so much older than Grainge is now when she became president of Island Records in 2002.
Grainge does seem to have a skill for identifying artists who are building an audience online and putting resources behind them in a smart way. Is his 10K Projects, which became part of WMG last year, a model for the label of the future? He hasn’t built the careers of any household-name superstars, which has been the traditional strength of the majors, though some of the acts he signed, like Ice Spice, are still on the rise.
As recently as two years ago, the trend lines seemed clear: Hip-hop was conquering the world, not only growing but also shaping emergent genres from Latin urbano to Afrobeats. Now it’s a bit harder to make sense of what’s working. Pop is getting bigger, but so is country. Latin is growing faster than ever, but tastes are changing there, too. And fans are more fickle than ever. Katy Perry’s comeback is faltering. The new album from Dua Lipa, which seemed like a sure thing, has had a slow start. Are listeners just hungry for new artists? Maybe. But Sabrina Carpenter released her first album before Dua did. Only Taylor Swift endures. As for everyone else, all we are is dust in the wind.
Amid this uncertainty, it’s tempting to think that someone must have the answers — especially if that person is young. Sure, the feeling goes, I don’t understand what’s happening, but I bet that guy does. And maybe he does! Grainge built a successful company by focusing on finding, developing and marketing talent in the digital world. The major labels have generally made bigger bets that paid off, or didn’t, in a bigger way. That’s harder to do now — there are fewer real superstars partly because there are fewer real paths to superstardom.
It may be more important than ever, though. Hit albums remain popular longer than ever, boosting the success of previous music by the same artist. Of the top 10 albums of the first half of 2024, Morgan Wallen had two of them, one each from 2021 and 2023; Zach Bryan’s 2023 album was the 8th biggest of the first half of 2024, so he could well have two of the biggest releases this year. (That top 10 list for the first half of 2024 has only seven artists.)
That’s the kind of success Grainge needs to bring to Atlantic, whether it comes from new acts or old ones, big bets or small ones the label doubles down on, or some combination of the two. All of the questions this raises about the future of the music business — What does this mean? What’s going on? — will be answered, at least to some extent, by how he does at that.