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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 24, we look at the chances of Alex Warren’s “Ordinary” to take over the top spot after 12 weeks of “Luther.” 

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Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): It’s been the little song that could for 13 weeks now on the Hot 100: Alex Warren’s simultaneously folky and bombastic love song “Ordinary.” After catching some early viral heat, Warren – an influencer and former member of the Hype House collective – brought the song everywhere from the Love Is Blind reunion to Jelly Roll’s headlining set at the Stagecoach Music Festival, gradually turning it into a global smash. It tops the Billboard Global 200 for a second week on the chart dated May 17 – and now, it sets its sights on the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100.  

“Ordinary” has already seized the top spot on two of the Hot 100’s three component charts: It has reigned for three weeks atop both Streaming Songs (up less than 1% to 21.6 million official U.S. streams this week, according to Luminate) and Digital Song Sales (down 11% to 6,000 sold). It has the most ground to make up still on radio – but it’s been doing exactly that, surging 34-27 on Radio Songs this week thanks to a 24% gain in radio audience, and is the greatest gainer in audience among all songs May 9-12, aiming to move into that chart’s top 20.  

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With the Hot 100 dominated thus far in 2025 by superstars like Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Travis Scott, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Ordinary” would make Alex Warren the first artist this year to top the Hot 100 for the first time if it moves to No. 1 – and Warren would be doing it with just his second-ever entry on the chart. 

Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Its rule on the Hot 100 has practically been unchallenged to this point since it took over following the Super Bowl in early March, but “Luther” is finally starting to slip in its dominance. It drops in each of its radio play (down 4%), streams (7%) and sales (12%) metrics this week, though it remains a strong performer in each – even reigning on Radio Songs for a sixth frame. But it’s clearly on the downslope of its commercial run now, and it may cede the Radio Songs crown as soon as next week.  

With “Luther” sliding and “Ordinary” still gaining, it seems like only a matter of time before the latter supplants the former atop the Hot 100. Regardless, whenever it happens, “Luther” has already proven historic in its 12-week rule, setting the all-time mark for most time at No. 1 for a duet between co-billed lead solo male and female artists, and the decade-best run for a 2020s rap song.  

IN THE MIX 

Doechii, “Anxiety” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): Not too far behind “Luther” on the Hot 100 this week is another song from the TDE family — “Anxiety,” Doechii’s first top 10 hit, which reaches a new high of No. 9 on the chart. The gains are mostly due to a rising radio audience, as the Gotye & Kimbra-sampling song moves 3-2 on Radio Songs, and seems likely to take over – potentially as soon as next week – as her first No. 1 on the chart. The question of how much further it could go on the Hot 100 likely comes down to whether it can gain fast enough and strong enough on radio to offset its declining streaming, as the song drops from No. 27 to No. 34 on this week’s Streaming Songs listing.  

Jessie Murph, “Blue Strips” (Columbia): One of the real breakout hits of the spring has been singer-songwriter Jessie Murph’s super-viral “Blue Strips,” with the hybrid country/trap/pop song bounding up the Hot 100 from No. 81 all the way to No. 15 this week in just four frames total on the chart. The song has already rocketed to the top five on Streaming Songs, and now is just starting to get going on radio, and aims to become her first-ever unaccompanied solo entry on next week’s Pop Airplay chart. It’s already Murph’s highest-peaking hit of any kind on the Hot 100, and if it continues to catch on the airwaves, the top 10 will surely be in the song’s sights before long.  

Morgan Wallen, “Superman” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Released on Friday (May 9), “Superman” is the eighth and final advance release from Wallen’s upcoming I’m the Problem album – don’t worry, still 29 totally new songs where those came from – and has gotten off to a predictably good start on streaming. That’ll probably be it for now for “Superman” as a focus track, since Wallen already has multiple active singles on streaming and radio (as well as five tracks currently residing in the Hot 100’s top 40), but the song should at the very least make a strong debut on the Hot 100, further prepping chartwatchers for the absolute Wallen onslaught due following the release of the full I’m the Problem next week.