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Though chart success is not exactly new to alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan — his Stick Season set debuted at No. 14 on the Billboard 200 albums chart in late 2022, while its title track has spent nearly 30 weeks on Billboard‘s Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart — he certainly reaches a new level this week, as his Stick Season jumps to the top 5 of the Billboard 200.

The album shoots all the way from No. 100 to No. 3 on the chart dated June 24, easily a new high for the set. That’s thanks to a combination of renewed interest in (and consumption of) the set following its We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe reissue earlier this month — which includes seven new tracks, including the TikTok-teased “Dial Drunk,” a No. 43 debut on the Billboard Hot 100 this week — and robust sales numbers, spurred on by the set’s long-awaited vinyl release the same day.

Still, how has Kahan been able to build so much commercial momentum in a relatively short period of time? And how big might his new hit still get from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. We don’t see a lot of indie-folk-type singer-songwriters reaching the top five of the Billboard 200 in 2023, let alone doing so for the first time with a reissue. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you to see Noah Kahan’s Stick Season at No. 3 this week?

Eric Renner Brown: My surprise at seeing Kahan specifically would clock in around an 8, but my surprise at seeing A Guy Like Kahan is about a 3. Earnest, folky singer-songwriter fare perennially does well. The artists who break through can come as a surprise – and I’m not sure I or anyone else can always explain why one artist in this genre gets huge while others don’t – but indie-folk still has a huge audience, and where there’s an audience there will always be a desire for new blood.

Hannah Dailey: I’d say 5, and my surprise level is only that high because it was the deluxe version, not the actual album, to make it that far on the charts. But Noah in general has been long overdue for this kind of commercial recognition — he’s a talented songwriter with that rare but familiar gift for crafting hooks that resonate widely and deeply with the most versatile of audiences. As for his folksy acoustic sound, I’m not surprised he’s seeping into the mainstream — I think his style is one of the most timeless genres out there, and that there’s always been a market for it. But it’s one of those genres that’s often bigger than the individual artists who contribute to it. It’s only when someone like Noah, Mumford & Sons, the Lumineers, etc. is positioned at the right time to rise above the rest of the songwriting pool that numbers like this are able to happen. 

Kyle Denis: I’m probably around a 7.5-8. I’m in a perpetual state of awe at how deep and dedicated music niches have become in the TikTok era. I would wager that the average person walking down the street doesn’t have a single clue who Noah Kahan is, but that doesn’t matter. He’s engaged his base in such a way that them simply showing up is enough to put him alongside global sensations like Taylor Swift and Stray Kids. I think that’s beautiful. I also think the fact that Stick Season hit No. 3 with a reissue is really important. It seems like artists are moving on from albums at an increasingly fast pace, but the success of Stick Season is a testament to the power of working a record to the fullest extent. 

Josh Glicksman: Let’s go with an 8. Granted, it wasn’t a week filled with new releases from perennial chart-topping artists (the only June 9 album to rank ahead of Stick Season on the June 24-dated chart is Niall Horan’s The Show). Even so, Kahan’s monumental leap from No. 100 to No. 3 on the Billboard 200, with no prior history on the chart aside from this project, is nothing to gloss over — particularly during a year when it’s been difficult to break ground among the mainstays.

Andrew Unterberger: About an 8. It was obvious from Stick Season‘s debut last year that Kahan was an artist to watch, and that a true breakthrough moment was likely coming down the road — but I thought “down the road” would mean “at least one album cycle away” for Kahan. That it came with a well-timed, well-planned reissue of Stick Season itself eight months after its initial release is definitely not what I expected, but that’s music in 2023 for you: No album cycle is ever truly over anymore.

2. Kahan has obviously been able to harness a certain amount of momentum and virality from his presence on TikTok. What do you think about him or his music has allowed him to be so successful there? 

Eric Renner Brown: Kahan’s songs are hooky earworms, have vivid and memorable lyrics, and exude a stylistic nostalgia that conjures indie-folk stalwarts of yesteryear like The Lumineers (who, it should be noted, sell out stadiums in the year 2023, even if lots of people reduce them to their 2012 smash “Ho Hey”). It all adds up to an immediate and organic simplicity that can stand out on the platform while appealing to the sensibilities of many of its younger users – who, now, have an indie-folk hero of their own.

Hannah Dailey: I don’t think the answer is much more complicated than that his music is objectively good and has built-in mass appeal. His lyrics are beautiful and widely relatable, his songs are intrinsically cathartic and beg to be sung by thousands of fans in arenas — a tried-and-true formula for commercial success. Does it hurt that he’s hilarious and clever, and has learned to communicate his hilariousness and cleverness to fans on social media while also fostering personal connections? Definitely not. 

Kyle Denis: I think there are two key things happening with Noah Kahan: 1) he satisfies Gen Z’s penchant for relatability from their music stars and 2) his folky analog sound is a far cry from the dominant dance-centric sonics of current mainstream pop. Kahan has been very open about his struggles with anxiety, and that kind of transparency resonates very deeply with a generation that is more open about mental health conversations than their elders were. Musically, he’s a smart lyricist and offers a different sound. It also helps that he engages with fans on a level beyond “here’s this song and tour ticket, buy it.” He’s complimenting and reacting to fans’ covers of his songs and throwing his support behind fans rewriting “Dial Drunk” from the other point of view. He feels accessible even though he isn’t actually just a phone call away for most listeners. 

Josh Glicksman: Though there are trends, it can be difficult to point to definitive rationale for virality on TikTok — though it’s notable that he’s been able to build momentum on the platform over the course of a full 21-song re-release, as opposed to a singular hit. That said, Kahan seems to have built a strong following thanks to frequent interaction with his fans, whether it be showcasing duets of those singing his songs, thanking concertgoers from tour stops or previewing new music.

Andrew Unterberger: If we’ve learned nothing else from the absurd level of success Zach Bryan has reached in the last 18 months, it should be that a relatable small-town artist with a strong voice (both in the technical and artistic sense), big choruses and a good understanding of internet promotion should never be underestimated. Kahan really seems like he’s following the Bryan playbook to the last X & O — most importantly, in terms of having huge-sounding songs that connect with listeners in a really personal way — and it’s certainly paying off for him right now.

3. Though he’s had breakout hits before – particularly with Stick Season’s title track – his new “Dial Drunk” seems to be a new level of breakthrough for Kahan, bowing at No. 43 on the Hot 100 this week. Do you think it will continue growing from here, or is its chart success more of a one-week wonder based on anticipation for its full debut? 

Eric Renner Brown: With its plucky banjo, “Dial Drunk” has a slightly different flavor than some of Kahan’s other most-streamed tracks, while still excelling in the ways those other songs do. I could see it being his next hit – but at this point, Stick Season‘s high chart placement seems the most likely explanation for the song’s Hot 100 appearance.

Hannah Dailey: I’m not sure. If I had to guess, I’d say that Noah’s magic really lies in his albums as full bodies of work, not his songs on their own. So while “Dial Drunk” may not continue its upward trajectory, I’m hopeful Stick Season will. 

Kyle Denis: I think the song might tumble a bit and then remain steady in the weeks to come. It may or may not re-peak, but I think, at this moment, the song’s longevity is of utmost importance for Kahan. People seem to really be latching onto the bridge and the storytelling aspect of the song. It also helps that songs with a similar sound, like Zach Bryan’s “Something in the Orange,” have stuck around on the Hot 100 for 60 weeks, so clearly there’s a sizable market for songs like “Dial Drunk.”

Josh Glicksman: While I don’t expect the song to climb into the highest reaches of the Hot 100, I’d expect for it to stick around in the weeks to come. Even if the viral momentum that spurred it to the chart begins to fade, “Dial Drunk” seems like a bankable hit on the radio throughout the summer. It debuts at No. 3 on Hot Rock & Alternative Songs — one of an eye-popping 18 entries that he holds on the chart this week.

Andrew Unterberger: I gotta say, I am really rooting for this song. I don’t know how big “Dial Drunk” can get on the charts without a major place on radio — it doesn’t quite fit on pop or country, and rock and alternative radio only takes you so far in 2023 — but it’s certainly rousing and replayable enough to remain a fixture on streaming and stick around on the Hot 100 for some time still. It might need a big synch or music video or remix to push it past its current placement, though.

4. Kahan is still in the midst of a U.S. tour that will take him through most of the summer. If you were on his team, would you be advising him to do anything else right now to capitalize on the momentum of this moment, or is he better off focusing on the tour and letting his newfound success essentially promote itself? 

Eric Renner Brown: The guy has a No. 3 album on the Billboard 200 and headlined Radio City Music Hall two weeks ago! I don’t think he or his team needs to mess with his current trajectory.

Hannah Dailey: He’s clearly doing something right on his own, so I wouldn’t want to risk adding any pressure to inorganically capitalize on something that came together so naturally and beautifully. I also like to think that he’s proof of that if your music is really good and you just keep at it, people will eventually start to notice — as naive and over-simplified as that notion may be. 

Kyle Denis: At the risk of looking too try-hard and accidentally stepping towards the hyper-glossy inaccessible pop stardom he exists in opposition to, I would advise Kahan and his team to just keep doing what they’re doing. Maybe book some more televised performances but continue to prioritize the tour and nurture that unique fan connection. Part of the buy-in for supporting any new artist is feeling as though you have discovered them, and a calculated promotional push mitigates that feeling. The momentum will carry itself, and if recent tours from Taylor Swift and Beyoncé are anything to go by, touring — in any capacity — is still the most effective and authentic way to promote an artist’s music and brand. 

Josh Glicksman: Be visible, but don’t feel the pressure to immediately follow-up with something else. I’d be advising him to continue interacting with fans on social media, as well as doing the radio circuit and applicable press, but let Stick Season and “Dial Drunk” have their respective moments to shine in the sun. Spend the next several months continuing to build your fan base, and allow them to become familiar with your discography before trying to add another release in there.

Andrew Unterberger: Just chill for the rest of the season. Keep playing to bigger and bigger crowds on the road, keep engaging with fans online, but otherwise just marinate in the moment and don’t mess with what’s gotten you this far. And perhaps most importantly, maybe take a few months off, and then get to work on that next album: You’ve set yourself up beautifully for whatever comes next, but folks won’t wait around forever — and as good a handle as you have on the current rules of the game, they’re probably just a year or two away from changing into something totally unrecognizable.

5. Who’s another still-somewhat-under-the-radar singer-songwriter from the folk and/or indie worlds right now who you think might be due for a breakout moment of their own soon? 

Eric Renner Brown: Sure, this is partly wishful thinking on my part, but Alex G has an extremely passionate following in the indie world that only continues to grow, and it wouldn’t catch me totally off guard if one of his more folky tracks – and his 2022 album God Save the Animals has some of his folkiest material yet – broke through. Not that I think it’s particularly likely.

Hannah Dailey: Angel Olsen, Ethel Cain or Leith Ross! 

Kyle Denis: I’d love to see P.J. Harding and Ruel have their proper breakout moments sometime soon. 

Josh Glicksman: Samia. Go back and listen to her newest album, Honey — and while you’re there, check out 2020’s The Baby, too.

Andrew Unterberger: A little more country and grunge than folk and indie, but Koe Wetzel seems like another singer-songwriter in this did-it-himself mold who is really resonating with young fans right now and might not be long removed from his own mainstream breakout moment.