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The A&R position has historically been one of music’s most glamorous executive roles. But it’s common to hear today that the job is closer to that of an anonymous Wall Street number-cruncher — many of the creative aspects have been removed.

Traditionally, A&Rs were tasked with finding the next generation of important artists, and then helping those acts make commercially successful songs. In the modern industry, in many cases, the A&R executives who play key roles in music-making decisions have been supplanted by those who are more interested in using hard analytics to find the next big hit. Taking advantage of the flood of data from digital platforms, music companies now often seek an edge over their competition by ingesting and analyzing reams of information from streaming services and social media sites. 

“Over the past five years, everything has been centered around the data, the data, the data,” says Mike Weiss, head of A&R for the distribution company UnitedMasters. The industry now prioritizes “A&R guys who know that 10 is bigger than nine,” jokes Jeremy Maciak, a manager and former major-label A&R. 

But label sources say that while the data can predict a hit single, it is far less effective at indicating who will become an enduringly popular artist. “We’ve all been burned to a certain degree,” says Tab Nkhereanye, a senior vp of A&R at BMG. 

Arguing about the state of A&R is also arguing about the extent to which record companies can still provide artists with additional creative value. In theory, basing signing strategy on data helps labels unearth acts who are already exhibiting upward momentum and thus reduces the companies’ risk. And it’s a shortcut to nabbing market share in a hyper-competitive business where executive salaries — and shareholder confidence — are often tied to such metrics.

Relying on this type of quantitative research makes sense at a time when listeners have more choice than ever. Discovery has splintered in the era of personalization, and attention spans have evaporated. Since most of the levers the major labels once had to ensure exposure have lost their potency, signing artists who are already finding exposure on their own functions as an insurance policy.

“The world is different; the way that people connect with music is different; thus the A&R process has to be different,” says Jordan Weller, head of artist and investor relations at indify, a platform that helps independent acts find funding and support. “No executive can snap their fingers and guarantee that the world will buy into an artist anymore, because the consumers can finally decide what they want to listen to.”

Still, there is a concern — most pronounced among veteran A&Rs and managers — that the pendulum has swung too far towards analytics. “I have a saying to the A&Rs who focus all their time on data: You will be the first people replaced by a computer algorithm,” adds Mike Caren, who built up APG, his own label and publishing company, and served as a major-label A&R. He counsels younger employees, “don’t take the easy and short-term route of being 100% data reliant.”

All that data doesn’t communicate much about the artist behind the music. “It doesn’t tell the whole story,” Nkhereanye explains. “Can you perform live? Can you interview? Can you make more than two records that stream?”

In reality, managers and A&Rs say, few of the data-centric signings that landed big deals in recent years have been able to make even two tracks that stream. A number of these artists have been quietly dropped.

A former research-focused A&R acknowledges that the data-driven process surfaced a lot of duds. “I was getting frustrated because of the sheer amount of stuff coming up on research and then seeing it not really pan out a year later,” he says.

Labels are all also reviewing much of the same information — meaning everyone sees the next viral phenomenon within a day or two. “The companies get the same data, they’re all chasing the same artists,” longtime music attorney Don Passman recently told Billboard. If no one has a number-crunching advantage anymore, the labels that can provide the most creative assistance to the acts they sign might have the upper hand.

But that skill set may be in short supply precisely because the music industry has emphasized data so heavily in recent years. In Nkhereanye’s view, “companies started cutting back on paying great A&R talent. They would rather pay 10 research kids 100 grand and give them fake titles.”

“There are less A&Rs than ever that can help an artist cultivate their sound, and make better records for a broader audience,” adds J Grand, who has spent more than 15 years in A&R roles. “If all we do is rely on 0’s and 1’s, that’s a problem, especially with the rise of AI. We have to bring something else to the table.”

In this environment, “once the artist is signed, A&Rs don’t know how to help them,” explains Dave Gordon, a streaming consultant who worked at two major labels. And while not every artist needs help, some presumably would benefit from guidance.

In those cases, according to Gordon, the artist-label conversation becomes, “‘Do your thing; I don’t know how the f— you did it last time. Make another one for me, and I’ll turn it in for you.’”

Weiss distills the challenge facing contemporary A&R departments. “The people that have been able to catch things in that well of TikTok and data and research are all the ones that have been getting promoted,” he explains. Now, “the research well has essentially run dry. Everyone’s kind of looking around saying, ‘OK, how do we go back?’”