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It’s officially that time of year again — on the charts, anyway. The proper holidays may still be a couple weeks ago, but the Billboard Hot 100 is in full seasonal swing, with timely perennials absolutely taking over the chart’s top tier.

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As it has at some point in all of the last six years — although it had to split time a bit last year — Mariah Carey‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” rules the Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, followed by last year’s three-week champ, Brenda Lee‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You.” And Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, already hits a new all-time peak this week by jumping to No. 3.

What other seasonal staples might hit new peaks on the Hot 100 this year? And how long until “All I Want” starts to seriously threaten the all-time chart record? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Though Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” captured the Hot 100 No. 1 for the first three weeks of the holiday season in 2023, this year Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is the first seasonal classic to claim the chart’s apex. Are you surprised at the changeover, or did you expect “All I Want” to reclaim its throne on the early side this year? 

Katie Atkinson: I had no doubt that Carey would reclaim her Christmas crown; it was just a matter of at what point in the 2024 holiday season. That said, it also feels very likely that Brenda Lee could rock her way back to the top of the Hot 100 Christmas tree this year. What was exciting about “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” hitting No. 1 for the first time last year was the idea that maybe a revolving door of holiday classics (or maybe even new seasonal songs) could jockey for that position each year, keeping the Christmas chart race interesting and festive — just like in Love, Actually (or in the real U.K.).

Kyle Denis: I’m not surprised at all. The Mariah Claus promotional machine has been in full swing since Oct. 2 – the date of her first Christmas-themed Instagram post of the year. Between her ongoing holiday tour and a new 30th-anniversary edition of Merry Christmas, both Carey and “All I Want” have been far more visible than Brenda Lee and “Rockin’” at this point in the season. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” reaching the top of the Hot 100 for the first time last year represented a lovely chart tribute to Brenda Lee, a beloved performer in her late seventies who got to watch her song hit No. 1 decades after its release. That said, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” remains the dominant holiday pop smash of this era, and will exist as the safest bet for the No. 1 slot in December unless there’s a special circumstance (such as Lee releasing a music video for “Christmas Tree” last year). Maybe Lee notches more weeks atop the Hot 100 during this and future holiday seasons, but Carey’s hit will remain bigger for the foreseeable future.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, Brenda Lee had a deserved nice moment for the song’s 65th anniversary last year, but Mariah remains the Queen of Christmas — and in the 30th-anniversary year of her Merry Christmas Album and its signature hit, there was never any real chance of anyone besting her.

Christine Werthman: Am I surprised that the queen of Christmas has reclaimed her throne? No, and I suspect that she will sit there all season. I was much more shocked that Brenda Lee topped the chart in 2023 simply because Mariah has been so dominant.  

2. Wham!’s “Last Christmas” ranking is perhaps the real headline news of this week’s Hot 100, as the ‘80s holiday staple reaches a brand-new peak of No. 3 this week. Why, after four decades, do you think the song continues to grow on the charts? 

Katie Atkinson: It’s just such a perfect pop hit, in addition to being a great Christmas song. And it’s celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, so just like Brenda Lee pulled out all the stops last year for the song’s 65th anniversary – new music video, round-the-clock media appearances, etc. – we’re seeing Wham!’s Andrew Ridgeley hit the interview circuit to hype up the beloved song. It hit No. 1 in the U.K. for the first time in 2021 and has spent a total of seven weeks in the top spot. I would love if this were the year for it to climb to No. 1 in the U.S.

Kyle Denis: Outside of it being a near-perfect pop song that’s gotten tons of new lives over the past few decades thanks to some stunning covers, I think “Last Christmas” is benefitting from a new generation of queer audiences connecting with George Michael’s lyrics. Long considered a queer Christmas classic, these new listeners can hear and see themselves in “Last Christmas” — and it’s likely they were introduced to the song through covers from pop stars like Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift. I definitely expect “Last Christmas” to continue surging in the coming weeks, especially as some of 2024’s biggest stars – like Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and ROSÉ — deliver their own spins on it this holiday season. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Last Christmas” has been a holiday staple for years now — but the top three of the current Hot 100 makes clear that Wham!’s classic is now considered precisely the third-biggest holiday staple, behind “All I Want for Christmas Is You” and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree.” The song has slowly grown in stature over the years, and while reaching a new peak on the Hot 100 is an achievement worth commemorating, I do think that No. 3 high will remain for quite some time, since Lee’s smash still outpaces Wham! in streams and airplay, and Carey’s holiday hit towers above both. Maybe “Last Christmas” eventually climbs to No. 2 this year or in the near future, but it also might have hit its ceiling this week.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s all about anniversary years, isn’t it? “Last Christmas” grows in estimation every year because it’s one of the best holiday-themed songs ever written, but it’s specifically spiking this year likely due in no small part due to sentimentality over the song celebrating its 40th birthday this year — and will do so only more so once the physical single versions of its anniversary reissue ship this Friday.

Christine Werthman: Because…it’s a vibe? In all seriousness, the song is usually a less invasive option than many Christmas songs. While “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is a showstopper and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” kicks it back to the oldies, “Last Christmas” seamlessly slides into playlists that aren’t even entirely holiday themed. It’s an easy one to play on repeat.  

3. Though both are now considered modern classics, neither Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (No. 19) or Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” have yet hit the Hot 100’s top 10, both peaking thusfar at No. 11. Do you think this be the lucky year for Ariana, Kelly, both or neither?

Katie Atkinson: I’m going to wager that, on the strength of the good will around her performance in Wicked, this could be Ariana’s year. Anecdotally, it feels like I’ve heard “Santa Tell Me” more than ever this year – especially in Target, for what it’s worth – and this is obviously not scientific, but it just feels like the song has some serious tailwinds at the moment.

Kyle Denis: I’m going to give Ariana the edge; she’ll be incredibly visible this holiday season thanks to Wicked and the awards cycle for both film and music. She also has three physical 10th-anniversary editions of the “Santa Tell Me” single available on her website, and those will ship on Dec. 20. 

Jason Lipshutz: I predict “Santa Tell Me” to hit the top 10 for the first time this year, once some long-running non-holiday hits like “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Die With a Smile” (as well as Kendrick Lamar’s GNX material) naturally starts slipping. Along with the holiday season, we are currently in the Autumn of Ariana, thanks to Wicked dominating the box office and earning Grande raves (and a Golden Globe nod as of yesterday), in addition to hosting Saturday Night Live and seeing Eternal Sunshine pop up on year-end lists. “Santa Tell Me” will no doubt reach the top 10 of the Hot 100 someday — why not this season, during Grande’s red-hot streak? Other holiday songs may try to crowd it out and keep it down in the top 20, but I think “Santa Tell Me” will be… wait for it… apologies in advance… defying gravity.

Andrew Unterberger: Why not both? They’re the eighth- and ninth-highest-ranked holiday hits on the Hot 100 currently — so if they stay at their current trajectories, they’ll both have a pretty good shot at making the top 10 when Christmas music becomes all anyone is listening to in the next couple weeks to come. Unless Kendrick Lamar has a second 2024 album in the offing for late December; can’t totally rule out the possibility of course.

Christine Werthman: Unless there’s a cup of cheer and a sweet new sync in their future, neither of these songs are breaking into the top 10 this season. I know there’s a lot of Ari fever because of Wicked, but I don’t think it will drive more people to stream “Santa Tell Me.” Bah humbug!

4. Lower on the ranking, Laufey makes her Hot 100 debut with the new “Christmas Magic” from Red One. Does it feel like a future staple to you, or will most of its impact come this season?

Katie Atkinson: I could see it being a staple. It’s got that timeless, jazzy feel of a lot of holiday music, and Laufey taps into the same vibe that Zooey Deschanel mined with her She & Him Christmas project, which has become a mistletoe mainstay. Laufey and Christmas music go together like candy canes and cocoa.

Kyle Denis: No — then again, I don’t think anything attached to Red One will be a future staple. I also think Laufey can come a bit harder, though “Christmas Magic” is just fine. Regardless, it’s really great to see her on the Hot 100 for the very first time! 

Jason Lipshutz: “Christmas Magic” may not sound like a typical holiday hit, but Laufey has a ton of goodwill at the moment, with a passionate fan base and a growing number of casual listeners latching onto her singular style. Seeing her score her first Hot 100 hit with an Amazon Music holiday track was not on my bingo card! But it’s a well-deserved debut, and will lead to bigger things in 2025.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think this is necessarily the song that’s gonna do it, but I have every confidence in Laufey eventually finding her way to a holiday perennial — she’s got just the right voice and temperament for it, not to mention the sizeable following. (You can already see her versions of “Winter Wonderland” and “Santa Baby” creeping up the Spotify charts as well.)

Christine Werthman: This is a pleasant, jazzy little bop, but I can’t even listen to the full thing because I don’t have Amazon Music. I would guess there are many others like me out there, so I think this will have a limited impact beyond this year. Also, Red One has a 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and though I have not seen the movie, I am guessing it will not become the type of holiday classic that will help endear certain songs to listeners (like Home Alone for Brenda or Love Actually for Mariah). 

5. This marks Mariah Carey’s 15th week atop the Hot 100 with “All I Want,” leaving the song just four weeks shy of tying the all-time record held by Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” and recently matched by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Do you think it’ll claim the record in the next couple years? 

Katie Atkinson: Yes. In fact, I feel confident in guessing that it will surpass the record next year. What will be most interesting is how many weeks it can sustain in the years to come after that. This unique way of piecing together weeks at No. 1 could create a truly untouchable all-time Hot 100 record. Long live the Queen of Christmas.

Kyle Denis: Barring any unforeseen rule changes, I think it’s safe to say “All I Want” will claim the title by the end of the 2025 holiday season. At least Lil Nas X can say his 19 weeks at No. 1 were consecutive! 

Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Unless “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” makes a forceful push to become the top holiday hit, or something semi-recent like “Santa Tell Me” or “Underneath the Tree” explodes for some unforeseen reason, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is going to keep logging weeks at No. 1, year after year, and eventually own the all-time record. My question is, how far can it go once that record is claimed? If Carey keeps spending a month at No. 1 every year for the next half-decade, could we see “All I Want” reach 30 total weeks at No. 1? How about 40? Because of this annual tradition, the sky is the limit for what Carey could achieve as a perennial chart behemoth.

Andrew Unterberger: Yep, hard to see anything short of a holiday-themed “We Are the World”-type gathering of superduperstars getting in its way.

Christine Werthman: Oh yes, she’ll get there. Slow and steady wins the race!