Music

Kendrick Lamar already has 17 Grammys to his name, and he could add several more if “Not Like Us” dominates next month’s Grammy nominations announcement (Nov. 8).
A strong contender for both record and song of the year, the Billboard Hot 100-topping diss track is also a frontrunner in the rap field categories of best rap song and best rap performance. Should “Not Like Us” take home the gold in both of those categories, it would become the fifth Lamar track to pull off the feat following “I” (2015), “Alright” (2016), “Humble” (2018), and “The Heart Part 5” (2023).

As can be the case across genres, there has been a fair amount of overlap between performance and songwriting categories in the rap field over the years. Since the best rap performance category was introduced in 2012 – several more specific categories were condensed in a major rehaul of the ceremony — eight songs have triumphed both there and in best rap song, which was introduced in 2004. In addition to Lamar’s victories, the other winners include Jay-Z & Kanye West‘s “N—as in Paris” (2013), Macklemore & Ryan Lewis‘ “Thrift Shop” (2014), Megan Thee Stallion & Beyoncé‘s “Savage” (2021) and Killer Mike, Future, André 3000 and Eryn Allen Kane‘s “Scientists & Engineers” (2024).

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Before the categories were restructured, two best rap song winners — Jay-Z, Rihanna and West’s “Run This Town” (2010) and Jay-Z & Alicia Keys‘ “Empire State of Mind” (2011) — also won best rap/sung performance (now called best melodic rap performance). In 2004, Eminem‘s “Lose Yourself” won best rap song — making him the inaugural winner in that category — and best male rap solo performance.

But what tracks could block “Not Like Us” from a rap field sweep? Let’s break down the leading contenders in both categories.

Best Rap Song

First, there’s the question of “Like That.” If Lamar’s Hot 100-topping collaboration with Future & Metro Boomin wins both best rap song and best rap performance, Lamar would still earn his fifth double-whammy. In the event that both “Not Like Us” and “Like That” earn nods in best rap song, Lamar would increase his tally to 10 career nods in this category — the fourth most of all time. A nod for “Like That” would earn Future his fourth nomination in this category and Metro Boomin his first.

Two non-Lamar Hot 100 chart-toppers could also earn nods here: Megan Thee Stallion’s “Hiss” and Ye & Ty Dolla $ign‘s “Carnival.” Megan remains the first and only female rapper to win this category, and a nod for “Hiss” would be her first nomination in this category for a solo song. Ye (formerly known as Kanye West) has the most wins in the history of this category (7); a nod for “Carnival” here would be his seventeenth — the most of all time — and Ty Dolla $ign’s first. “Carnival” could also earn career-first Grammy nods for Don Toliver and Playboi Carti, who are credited songwriters and featured artists on the track.

Carti is also in contention by way of Travis Scott‘s “FE!N,” which reached No. 5 on the Hot 100 in 2023. The duo performed the track at the 2024 Grammy telecast, where its parent album, the Billboard 200-topping Utopia lost best rap album to Killer Mike’s Michael. Between his globe-trotting Circus Maximus Tour and a historic re-release of his decade-old Days Before Rodeo mixtape, Travis has remained a consistent presence this year. Killer Mike, on the other hand, could bookend his 2024 victory in this category with “Humble Me.”

Two other massive 2024 Hot 100 hits — Jack Harlow‘s “Lovin On Me” (No. 1) and Tommy Richman‘s “Million Dollar Baby” (No. 2) — are also very strong contenders. Richman is looking for his first Grammy nod, while Harlow is looking to earn his second nod in this category following “Churchill Downs” (with Drake) in 2023.

There are also a number of other notable Hot 100 hits that are in contention, including: Sexyy Red‘s “Get It Sexy” (No. 20), Nicki Minaj‘s “FTCU” (No. 15), GloRilla‘s “Yeah Glo” (No. 28), Flo Milli‘s “Never Lose Me” (No. 15), Doja Cat‘s “Demons” (No. 46), Lil Baby & Central Cee‘s “Band4Band” (No. 18), Cardi B‘s “Enough” (No. 9) and 21 Savage‘s “Redrum” (No. 5). Both Lil Baby and Cardi B are seeking their second nominations in this category, while Minaj and Doja are each aiming for their third. 21 Savage, who won this category alongside J. Cole for “A Lot” in 2020, is looking to earn his fourth nomination in this category. Out of these contenders, Hot Girl Summer tourmates Megan Thee Stallion and GloRilla are likely the strongest contenders, but both have a more favorable history in best rap performance.

As always, there are also a few dark horses for which to keep an eye out. Rapsody, a previous nominee in this category for “Sassy” back in 2018, could pull off a nomination for “Asteroids,” while ScHoolboy Q could earn his first nod in this category with “Thank God 4 Me.” Eminem is the inaugural winner of this category, and he’s since added four additional nominations. “Tobey” (with Big Sean and BabyTron) could earn Slim Shady his first best rap song nod since 2019, when his Joyner Lucas-assisted “Lucky You” earned a nomination. Lucas is also in contention with his Jelly Roll duet, “Best for Me,” which earned a nod for best video for good at the MTV Video Music Awards last month. Finally, Common could earn his second nomination in this category with “When the Sun Shines Again” (with Pete Rock and Posdnuos).

Our Fearless Forecast

So, which five songs have the best chance to be nominated in this Grammy category? The rap field is always unpredictable, but here goes nothing: “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “Lovin On Me” (Jack Harlow), “Like That” (Future, Metro Boomin & Lamar), “Asteroids” (Rapsody) and “Carnival” (Ye, Ty Dolla $ign, Don Toliver & Playboi Carti)

Best Rap Performance

Given the history of overlap between best rap song and best rap performance, most of the aforementioned songs are also contenders in this category. Some other Hot 100 hits to keep an eye on include Bryson Tiller‘s “Whatever She Wants” (No. 19), Eminem’s “Houdini” (No. 2) and Megan Thee Stallion and Yuki Chiba‘s “Mamushi” (No. 36). A nod in this category would be the first for Tiller and Chiba. Also in contention here with “Hiss,” Megan is looking to add to her two previous nominations in this category. Eminem has earned 12 career nods across rap performance categories; he has won best rap solo performance three times in addition to one triumph in best male rap solo performance and two wins in best rap performance by a duo or group.

Other strong contenders include Doechii‘s “Nissan Altima,” Latto‘s “S/O to Me,” LL Cool J & Eminem’s “Murdergram Deux,” Big Sean‘s “Yes” and ScHoolboy Q’s “Blueslides.”

Our Fearless Forecast

So, which five songs have the best chance to be nominated in this category? I predict: “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “HISS” (Megan Thee Stallion), “Like That” (Future, Metro Boomin & Lamar), “Murdergram Deux” (LL Cool J & Eminem) and “Yeah Glo” (GloRilla)