Music Stocks
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Warner Music Group’s share price didn’t improve much this week, but its 5.6% gain nevertheless led the 21 music stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index.
On Tuesday (Aug. 8), Warner Music Group (WMG) reported that its quarterly revenue increased 9% year over year in the fiscal quarter ended June 30. That was music to investors’ ears after WMG’s revenue grew just 1.7% in the previous quarter, but it wasn’t exactly a surprise: WMG executives had previously told investors that the company’s new release schedule was weighted in the back half of its fiscal year and that its financials would pick up accordingly. And a Billboard analysis of Luminate data found that the company’s U.S. market share had started to improve by early May.
Only four of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished the week in positive territory. Sphere Entertainment Co., the company behind the state-of-the-art Las Vegas venue set to open in September, improved 5.5% to $39.77 and German promoter CTS Eventim gained 4.8% to 61.80 euros ($67.76). Elsewhere, Hipgnosis Songs Fund rose 3.9% to 79.8 pence ($1.01).
This was the third consecutive week the index declined in value after reaching an all-time high in the week ended July 21.
LiveOne shares dropped 4% this week despite the company raising guidance on its fiscal 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. In the fiscal quarter ended June 30, the company — which is behind music streaming platform Slacker and podcast brand PodcastOne — posted revenue of $25.7 million, up 24% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million, up 46% year over year.
iHeartMedia shares fell 24.9% to $3.38 this week after the company warned of continued softness in advertising. The U.S. radio giant posted second quarter revenue of $920 million, down 3.6% year over year. Other radio companies also declined. Cumulus Media fell 5.9% to $4.96, while Townsquare Media — not a member of the Billboard Global Music Index — fell 19.7% on Wednesday following the company’s second-quarter earnings results but recaptured some of the losses on Thursday and Friday to finish the week down 7.2% at $10.50.
French streaming company Deezer fell 9.4% to 2.12 euros ($2.32) this week and has lost 16% since reporting mid-year earnings on Aug. 3. The company lowered its forecast for full-year revenue growth slightly to a range of 7% to 10%, down from a more than 10% increase. Although the company’s decision to raise its price in 2022 helped its average revenue per user to increase 8.3%, its subscribers declined by 100,000 to 9.3 million from the prior-year period.
In related news, Disney shares rose 4.9% after the company’s second quarter beat earnings expectations, even as it revealed that its Disney+ subscriber count fell 7.4% to 146.1 million in the second quarter. Starting in October, Disney will raise the prices for both ad-free and ad-supported tiers of Disney+ and Hulu by at least 20%. Following the price increases, ad-free Disney+ will cost $13.99 per month and ad-free Hulu will cost $17.99 per month.
Music services have been far more hesitant than streaming video-on-demand services to raise prices. Spotify just increased its individual plan price in the United States — by $1 to $10.99 — for the first time since launching in 2011. By contrast, Hulu last raised its prices in October 2022 and has increased its the price of its ad-free tier by 39% in less than a year.
Music stocks’ decline mirrored stocks’ broad declines this week. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was down 0.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.4%. News that the U.S. producer price index, a gauge of wholesale prices, rose 3% in July — the biggest one-month gain since January — was a factor in U.S. stock prices falling Friday.
SM Entertainment’s second quarter earnings, which were announced Wednesday (Aug. 2), helped shares of the K-pop music company, home to such acts as NCT Dream and Red Velvet, gain 7.6% to 137,700 won ($105.59) this week. That made it the top performer of the 21 stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index this week. The […]
Triller, a short-form video app in the style of TikTok, is planning to sell its common stock on the New York Stock Exchange through a direct listing under the ticker “ILLR,” according to the company’s S-1 filing released Wednesday (Aug. 2). The filing did not provide a date of the direct listing.
The direct listing — not an initial public offering, or IPO — will not have an underwriter that assumes the financial risk of selling the listed shares to institutional investors. Popularized by Spotify in 2018, a direct listing avoids the IPO’s road show and book-building process that establishes an initial selling price. Triller will not receive any proceeds from shares offered in the direct listing by its shareholders.
While TikTok had an estimated $9.4 billion in revenue in 2022 and is becoming an important source of royalties for record labels and music publishers, Triller is a far smaller affair. In the first quarter of 2023, the self-described “artificial intelligence powered technology platform” had revenue of $9.1 million and a net loss of $28.8 million. In calendar 2022, Triller had a net loss of $195.6 million on revenue of $47.7 million.
The S-1 paints a picture of a financially troubled company with numerous outstanding issues. Triller had just $2.2 million of cash and cash equivalents as of March 31. The company’s S-1 warns that Triller has incurred losses each year since its inception — not unusual for a high-growth tech startup — and has an accumulated deficit of $1.29 billion. Triller may incur additional costs related to outstanding litigation with Universal Music Publishing Group, as one example, and admits to not being in compliance with the payment obligations of “a significant number” of its music licensing contracts and “overdue on payments” to vendors that provide Triller with engineering, marketing and legal services, among other parties.
The S-1 also reveals that Triller entered into a confidential settlement agreement with Sony Music Entertainment on July 21, 2023, that requires it to make payments to SME for a breach of contract lawsuit brought by SME in 2022. On May 16, Triller was ordered to pay SME nearly $4.6 million. The settlement provided Triller with a payment plan. With 15 days of the direct listing, Triller will be obligated to pay SME under the settlement agreement.
Triller will have two classes of common stock: a Class A common stock with one vote per share and Class B common stock with ten votes per share. Upon completion of the reorganization, Proxima Media and Bobby Sarnevesht, Triller’s founding partners, will own about 15.4% of Triller’s common stock and have 60.6% of the company’s total voting power. In addition to Proxima Media, the other shareholders with greater than a 5% share of outstanding common stock are Paul Posner, CEO of Carnegie Technologies, and Tsai Ming Hsing. As of March 31, Triller had 282,017,038 shares of Class A common stock and 46,651,382 shares of our Class B common stock outstanding.
Triller claims to have over 550 million user accounts and had over 2.4 million creators as of March 31 — almost 100,000 more than it had two years earlier. It built its user base with acquisitions such as its 2021 purchase of Verzuz, the livestream platform created by of Swizz Beats and Timbaland that shot to fame during the pandemic. Swizz Beatz and Timbaland filed a $28 million lawsuit against Triller in August 2022 over unpaid monies promised in the deal. That lawsuit was settled out of court one month later.
Radio companies, suffering from sluggish radio advertising and underwhelming stock prices, might be starting to see the light. B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day expects national advertising to pick up in the second half of 2023. That hint of optimism, along with Cumulus Media’s better-than-expected second-quarter earnings released Friday, sent radio stock prices soaring over the last few days.
Cumulus’s net revenue of $210.1 million was down 11% year over year and 25% below the same quarter in pre-pandemic 2019, the company announced Friday. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $30.7 million was down 32.6% from the prior-year period, but was helped by wringing out $12 million of cost reductions. Revenue was in line with the company’s expectations while EBITDA exceeded expectations. Adjusted EBTIDA of $28.7 million was 32% above the estimate of Noble Capital Markets analysts.
That was good news for some investors. Shares of Cumulus climbed 14.5% to $5.54 on Friday and rose another 14.4% to $6.34 on Monday. Even after Cumulus gave back some of those gains on Tuesday (Aug. 1) and dropped 11.7% to $5.60, its share price was more than 2.5 times above the 52-week low of $2.57 from May 9. On Monday, B Riley upped its Cumulus price target from $10 to $11 — implying 96% upside from Tuesday’s closing price — and maintained its “buy” rating.
The trends could portend good news for other radio companies. On Monday, shares of iHeartMedia rose 12.4% to $4.73. Even after dropping 3.2% to $4.58 on Tuesday, iHeartMedia’s stock stood at more than double its 52-week low of $2.21 set on May 26. iHeartMedia will report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 8.
For Cumulus, the quarter was all about optimizing what it can control while mitigating the downside of what it cannot control, said president and CEO Mary Lerner during Friday’s earnings call. “This proven skill set is serving us well as we make the best of the current tough ad environment,” said Lerner.
Cumulus cut $5 million of fixed costs, repurchased $5.7 million of its common stock in the second quarter, bringing the total repurchases to $39 million, and retired about $32 million of bonds at an average discount of 26%. It also announced the sale of WDRQ-FM for $10 million that is expected to close this quarter. Digital revenue of $37.5 million was down just 0.7% from the prior-year period. Cumulus’ digital marketing services businesses were up 21% year over year while its podcast audience was up 19%.
What Cumulus cannot control is the willingness of brands to buy advertising. A weak national advertising environment since late 2022 “remained the main factor driving a decline in total revenue,” said Frank Lopez-Balboa, Cumulus executive vp, treasurer and chief financial officer. Local spot advertising revenue — which accounts for 80% of Cumulus’s total stock revenue — was down 7% while soft national advertising caused total broadcast radio revenue to fall 16.5%.
Shares of SiriusXM soared 49.1% this week due to a “short squeeze” related to a trading strategy involving its parent company, Liberty Media. The stock rose 49.1% to $7.08, turning an 18.7% year-to-date loss into a 21.2% year-to-date gain.
On Thursday (July 22), SiriusXM shares increased 42.3% as 128 million shares were traded — about 6.7 times the average daily trading volume. The price fell 9.3% on Friday to close at $7.08 as trading volume reached 132.9 million shares.
As an article at Barron’s explained, SiriusXM, a heavily shorted stock, has benefitted from investors taking a long position in Liberty SiriusXM Group — a tracking that includes SiriusXM — and a short position in SiriusXM. (A short position is a bet that a stock price will decline. A long position is a bet the stock price will increase.) Those positions would benefit if Liberty SiriusXM Group, viewed as an inexpensive alternative to SiriusXM, was able to narrow the gap to SiriusXM. But SiriusXM shares have risen in recent months, turning the short into a losing bet.
Investors who short a stock must buy back borrowed shares to cover their short position. When a stock has a small public float — as SiriusXM does — demand for a limited number of available shares can drive up the price. This isn’t happening just with SiriusXM: Heavily shorted stocks helped the stock market rally in the first half of the year. “As expected, shorts are getting squeezed in these losing trades and we are seeing short covering in these stocks — helping drive stock prices even higher alongside the momentum long buying we are seeing in these stocks,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of S3 Partners, told Yahoo Finance last week.
SiriusXM was — by far — the best-performing music stock this week, as the Billboard Global Music Index rose 6.8% to 1,447.32, bringing the year-to-date gain to 23.9%. Eight of the index’s 21 stocks were in negative territory, one was unchanged and 12 stocks posted gains this week.
French music streamer Deezer boasted the week’s second-biggest improvement after gaining 10.3% to 2.58 euros ($2.87). On Thursday, the company announced it had renewed its partnership with telecom company Orange, which will continue to drive customer acquisition in its home market. Under the new partnership, Deezer and Orange will offer new customers six free months of Deezer Premium.
Live music companies also had a good week. Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. gained another 8.9%. German concert promoter CTS Eventim improved 6.9%. And Live Nation shares rose 2.5% after Oppenheimer initiated coverage of the company with a $110 price target, suggesting the stock has a 14% upside from its $96.84 closing price on Friday.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 11.8% to KRW 117,900 ($92.88) this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer on the Billboard Global Music Index. The home of groups such as NCT 127 and Red Velvet, SM got good news this week after boy band EXO’s latest release, EXIST — The 7th Album, sold over 1 million copies in South Korea on its first day of release. In the United States, the group currently has four of the top five songs on Billboard’s Hot Trending Songs chart. Year to date, SM Entertainment shares are up 37.5%.
Led by SM Entertainment’s double-digit gain, 13 of the Billboard Global Music Index’s 21 stocks finished in positive territory this week. The index rose 1.7% to 1,355.35, its third-straight weekly increase and the sixth in the last seven weeks. Music stocks lagged behind many major indexes, however. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite gained 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 improved 2.4%. And South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 4%.
Spotify continues its hot streak by gaining 9.6% to $172.03, bringing the stock’s year-to-date improvement to 117.9%. The streaming giant got a boost this week after analysts at Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo increased their price targets to $185 and $250, respectively. Wells Fargo analysts are enthusiastic about Spotify’s prospects to improve its margins following the company’s layoffs and reduction of podcast content costs. Long-awaited price increases in the United States could improve Spotify’s gross margin by three percentage points and add nearly $727 million of revenue in 2024, according to the analysts.
Another K-pop company experienced the index’s largest decline this week: Shares of HYBE, home to BTS and Tomorrow X Together, fell 10.3% to KRW 256,500 ($202.08). The company was in the South Korean media this week following complaints of sexual harassment by security guards at an &TEAM singing event in Seoul. In a statement, HYBE apologized to the fans and explained that attendees at such events are searched to prevent recordings from leaking to the public.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ltd.’s decline of 3.9% to 0.74 pounds per share was the index’s biggest decline of the week after HYBE. On Thursday (July 13), Hipgnosis reported a $12.9 million improvement in pro-forma annual revenue million in calendar year 2022, although both gross and net revenue declined due mainly to two large, non-recurring adjustments. Still, investors remain wary of the stock, which has declined 14.3% year to date. As Billboard reported this week, Hipgnosis is shopping some assets that could help bolster its share price if sold. Shareholders will get a chance to weigh in on the fund’s future at the annual meeting in September by voting to change fund managers, liquidate the fund or stay on course.
Spotify was the biggest contributor to the 13% increase posted by the 21 stocks tracked by the Billboard Global Music Index for the first half of 2023.
Fueled by cost-cutting and corporate reorganization, shares of Spotify gained 103.4% through June 30. While that wasn’t the largest on a percentage basis for stocks on the index, Spotify’s size — it has the second-largest market capitalization of stocks that Billboard tracks — meant the company’s improvement was the single largest factor in the index’s gain.
The Global Music Index is a float-adjusted index of 21 music stocks. Each company’s market capitalization — the value of outstanding shares — is adjusted to remove the shares of insiders, corporate owners and long-term investors. The remaining market value reflects the shares available to be bought and sold on the open market. The index does not weight stocks to balance the influence of larger and smaller companies. (MSG Entertainment is not included in the index because it wasn’t an active stock for the entire six-month measurement period.)
Only half of the index’s six streaming stocks posted gains through June 30: Los Angeles-based platform LiveOne — with a relatively small market cap of $151 million — shot up 173%, and China’s Cloud Music improved 7.1%. On the losing end, Tencent Music Entertainment, also based in China, fell 10.9%; France’s Deezer dropped 17.8%; and Anghami, based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, lost 26.6%.
Outside of music, other streaming companies’ stocks also performed well in the first half of 2023 after losing ground in 2022. Netflix and Roku gained 49.4% and 60.5%, respectively, while Warner Bros. Discovery and Walt Disney Company — broader entertainment companies with streaming platforms and, lately, much C-suite drama — improved 32.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Strong demand for in-person experiences following the pandemic helped live-music companies recover from share-price losses in 2022. Live Nation shares improved 30.6% to $91.11, and the company had the second-largest gain in adjusted market capitalization. Sphere Entertainment, CEO James Dolan’s gambit to change the live-entertainment business, gained 31.9% after adjusting for the spinoff of MSG Entertainment in April. Germany’s CTS Eventim, stung by criticism over fee transparency by a German public TV show in June, dropped 2.9%. Live Nation’s market cap overpowered CTS Eventim’s loss, and all of the live-music companies collectively accounted for 32% of the index’s growth.
The index’s 13% gain was less than closely watched indexes such as the S&P 500 (up 15.9%) and the Nasdaq composite (31.7%). Both indexes are dominated by gains from tech titans such as Nvidia (up 189.5%), Meta (138.5%), Apple (49.3%), Microsoft (42%) and Alphabet (36.3%). Of that group, only Meta has a market cap under $1 trillion. The Billboard Global Music Index easily beat the 7.2% gain of the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap U.S. stocks with a median market cap of about $1 billion.
While Spotify’s share price of $160.55 is well below its all-time high of $387.44 reached in February 2021, it shows that investors regained some belief in the company’s long-term prospects. Spotify benefited from the same pandemic boost that carried Netflix to a record-high market cap. At the same time, investors were also enthusiastic about the potential for its podcasting business to evolve the music platform into an audio entertainment hub and improve margins constrained by label licensing deals.
Diving into podcasting required large cash outlays for acquisitions, staff and content deals with Joe Rogan, former President Barack and Michelle Obama, and Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, among others. By March 2022, investors had become impatient for margins to improve, and Spotify’s share price dipped to $118.20. As a wave of belt-tightening swept corporations worldwide, Spotify made drastic changes: It laid off 6% of its workforce in January and cut another 2% in June entirely from its podcast division. It restructured its podcasting leadership, canceled shows and consolidated its various podcast brands — The Ringer, Gimlet and Parcast — under the Spotify Studios umbrella.
Layoffs and reorganization have been especially common in the radio business. SiriusXM laid off 8% of its workforce in March and reorganized its podcast business. After the company announced it would shutter its stand-alone podcast app, Stitcher, its share price increased 18.5% in the last week of June. Its stock was down 22.4% at the year’s midway point, hurt by soft forecasts for self-pay subscribers and the weak advertising market that led to three radio companies in the index falling an average of 32.3%. IHeartMedia (down 40.6%) and Cumulus Media (34%) have also cut costs and laid off staff.
Two South Korean companies — both a mix of label and management company — accounted for two of the biggest gains outside of Spotify and Live Nation. HYBE, home to BTS, improved 62.2%, and SM Entertainment, the company behind NCT 127, gained 39.2%. SM’s share price benefited from a takeover battle. HYBE lost out to Kakao Corp. and Kakao Entertainment, which now collectively own 40% of SM, but its stock has more than reclaimed the losses suffered in June 2022, when BTS announced its hiatus.
Outside of South Korea, label and music publishing stocks had mixed results at midyear. Universal Music Group, the index’s largest company by market cap, and Warner Music Group declined 9.6% and 25.5%, respectively.
Seeing is believing for some investors in Sphere Entertainment Co., the developer of the new state-of-the-art venue, The Sphere, in Las Vegas. Shares of Sphere Entertainment soared 22.7% this week after the world saw the first videos of the dazzling display created by the 580,000 square feet of programmable LED “pucks” on Exosphere, the exterior […]
Shares of Cumulus Media gained 9.7% this week, the leading stock in the Billboard Global Music Index and one of only four stocks in the 21-company index to end in positive territory Friday (June 23).
Overall, the Billboard Global Music Index declined 3.5% to 1,287.41 — more than double the 1.4% declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Music stocks were more in line with the Nasdaq when the overpowering effects of a small number of tech companies are removed, however. That’s because a few powerhouses — such as Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon — often account for a large fraction of the Nasdaq’s gains. To that point, QQQE, an exchange-traded fund that gives equal weight to 100 Nasdaq stocks, declined 2.9% this week.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 declined 2.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell 2.1%. Central banks in England, Turkey and Norway raised interest rates this week. Investors can reasonably expect more rates hikes in the United States, too. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank may continue to raise rates — there have been 10 since March 2022 — but “to do so at a more moderate pace.” When central banks raise interest rates, stocks tend to fall because businesses and consumers are expected to cut back on spending and higher rates make bonds relatively more attractive to stock returns.
Cumulus Media improved to $3.40 a week and a half after the company announced it will sell about 1.75 million Class A common shares — nearly 10% of outstanding shares — at $3.25 per share in a modified Dutch auction that closed on June 9. While the sale will gross about $5.7 million, not including fees and expenses, the final result was well below the company’s goal to sell up to $10 million of shares as part of a previously announced $50 million share repurchase plan.
Shares of French music streaming company Deezer gained 3.6% to 2.32 euros ($2.54), bringing the stock’s year-to-date loss to 20.5%. U.S. streaming company LiveOne gained 3.3% to $1.58. Year-to-date, LiveOne has gained 145.3%. The only other company with a week-over-week improvement was South Korea’s HYBE, which improved 1.2% to 301,000 KRW ($236.91).
The other three Korean music companies declined this week: SM Entertainment and YG Entertainment each fell 5.6% and JYP Entertainment dropped 3.5%. Still, K-pop has been a resounding success for investors in 2023. Led by JYP Entertainment’s 93.7% year-to-date gain, the four Korean companies’ stocks have risen an average of TK% in 2023.
One company, Anghami, was unchanged and the index’s other 16 stocks were in negative territory this week. MSG Entertainment had the Billboard Global Music Index’s largest decline after dropping 17.1%. Sphere Entertainment Co., which spun off MSG Entertainment in April, intends to sell part of its 33% stake in MSG Entertainment. The news dropped the live entertainment company’s share price 12.1% on Wednesday. At Friday’s closing price, Sphere Entertainment’s sale of 5.25 million shares would gross about $170 million that could help fund the state-of-the-art Sphere at The Venetian Resort in Las Vegas that’s set to open in September.
Shares of SM Entertainment gained 15.3% this week, making the K-pop company the greatest gainer among the 21 music stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index. Although the company wasn’t the subject of any significant news items that typically affect share prices — earnings, investments or partnerships — its shares nonetheless rose to 117,600 KRW ($92.07), bringing the year-to-date gain to 53.3%.
It’s not just SM Entertainment, though. K-pop is booming in 2023. Shares of the index’s other South Korean music company, HYBE, gained 6.1% this week and have gained 71.5% in 2023. Outside the index, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment have gained 100.6% and 88.4%, respectively, year to date.
With 16 of its 21 stocks in positive territory this week, the Billboard Global Music Index improved 5% to 1,334.28, its best one-week performance since November. The biggest contributors to the index’s value posted strong single-digit gains. Spotify improved 6.3% to $159.99, Universal Music Group gained 3.8% to 20.16 euros ($22.11) and Warner Music Group jumped 9.3% to $27.16. Meanwhile, Live Nation gained 7.2% to $90.18 and on Thursday (June 15) closed above $90 for the first time since Sept. 15.
Two other stocks had double-digit gains this week. Streaming company LiveOne added 13.3% to $1.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 137.6%, while Sphere Entertainment Co. climbed 10.9% to $29.29. Since Sphere separated from MSG Entertainment’s concert promotion business on April 20, its shares have gone up more than 14%. On Sept. 29, U2 will launch the MSG Sphere at the Venetian with a residency that extends through Dec. 16.
While stocks were generally up this week, music stocks fared better than the major indexes. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% to 4,409.59, its best week since March. The Nasdaq composite improved 3.2% to 13,689.57, also marking its best week since March. Outside the United States, South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.6% to 2,625.79, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. gained 1.1% to 7,642.72.
German promoter and ticketing company CTS Eventim had the week’s largest decline at 18.2%, making it the only music stock on the index with a double-digit loss. As Billboard reported on Wednesday, the German company’s share price fell precipitously in the two days following a critical segment on the German public television show ZDF Magazin Royale.