Music Stocks
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Live Nation was the top-performing music stock and one of four stocks in positive territory this week. The concert promoter gained 2.5% to $97.02 while three other concert promotion stocks — Sphere Entertainment Co., Madison Square Garden Entertainment and CTS Eventim — each lost ground.
The Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.9% to 1,788.83 as 16 of its 20 stocks finished the week in negative territory. Music streaming companies Deezer and Anghami were two of the week’s other big winners with gains of 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively. Still, the index has risen 16.6% year to date and 12 of the 20 stocks have posted gains in 2024.
Another notable gainer this week was Believe, which closed Friday at 15.04 euros ($16.21), up 0.3% from the prior week. A closing price of 15.04 euros is above the 15.00 euros offer price by consortium of investors that aims to take Believe private. Some minority shareholders may remain, however, because the consortium, which has lined up 71.92% of share equity, will not implement a squeeze-out and force shareholders representing the remaining 28.08% of share capital to sell.
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iHeartMedia shares declined 42.7% to $1.30, leaving the radio broadcaster with a market capitalization of just $194 million. Its shares fell 36.1% on Thursday following its first-quarter earnings release and dropped another 5.8% on Friday.
As streaming has surged in popularity and economic importance, radio companies have struggled to reinvent themselves. In 2021, iHeartMedia shares surpassed $28 after the advertising market recovered from a COVID-19 pandemic-related collapse. But in the subsequent three years, its shares have lost nearly all their value as sluggish radio advertising has overshadowed iHeartMedia’s budding podcast business.
The index didn’t fall further than 1.9% because many of its most valuable companies suffered only minor losses this week. Spotify, the largest contributor to the float-adjusted index, dropped only 0.5% while HYBE, one of the index’s more valuable components, fell just 1.5%.
Those small losses, and Live Nation’s 2.5% gain, helped offset larger losses by some other valuable components of the index. Universal Music Group fell 3.1% to 28.01 euros ($30.22) and Warner Music Group dropped 7.3% to $31.64 following its fiscal second quarter earnings release on Thursday. Evercore and Morgan Stanley both dropped their price targets by $2 on WMG’s stock on Friday. Guggenheim maintain its WMG price target.
While music stocks had a rough week, stocks were broadly up around the world. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 1.9% to 5,222.68 and the Nasdaq composite improved 1.1% to 16,340.87. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 2.7% to 8,433.76. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.9% to 2,727.63. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6% to 3,154.55.
Shares of Live Nation jumped 7.2% to $94.66 on Friday following the company’s earnings report on Thursday (May 2), which showed the concert promotion and ticketing giant had a record first quarter. Revenue of $3.8 billion was up 21% year over year, and the company said it expects strong results in 2024 from its arena and high-margin amphitheater businesses.
Investors may have been encouraged by Live Nation’s insistence during Thursday’s earnings call that the U.S. Department of Justice does not pose a mortal threat to the company. Commenting about an April 16 Wall Street Journal article about a pending DOJ lawsuit, president and CFO Joe Berchtold dismissed the notion that regulators could force Live Nation to sever its concert promotion and ticketing businesses. “Very little of the conduct the DOJ has raised with us relates to the combination of ticketing and promotion resulting from the merger,” he said. “And most of what does was anticipated and addressed by the consent decree allowing the merger to go forward.
“Based on the issues we know about,” Berchtold added, “we don’t believe a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster would be a legally permissible remedy.”
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Live Nation hasn’t fully recovered since news of a pending DOJ lawsuit broke. Through Wednesday (May 1), Live Nation shares had lost 11.5% since the WSJ article. Friday’s 7.2% gain helped Live Nation recover nearly half of that loss.
Numerous analysts see upside in Live Nation’s stock. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of Live Nation with a $120 price target and a “buy” rating. Following Thursday’s earnings release, Jefferies upped its price target to $115 from $114, Wolf Research raised its price target to $131 from $128, and Benchmark increased its price target to $132 from $130. CFRA downgraded Live Nation to “hold” from “strong buy,” however, and lowered its price target to $105 from $120.
Live Nation was one of the best-performing music stocks in a week the vast majority of them posted gains. Seventeen of the index’s 20 stocks gained ground this week, helping the Billboard Global Music Index improve 3.8% to 1,824.29 and nearly match the all-time high of 1,841.66 reached four weeks ago. Two stocks — Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami and New York-based label and publisher Reservoir Media — posted losses and one stock, French music company Believe, was unchanged.
Universal Music Group shares climbed 4.9% to 28.92 euros ($31.16) following its first-quarter earnings release on Thursday and its announcement of a renewed licensing deal with TikTok. UMG’s earnings rose 6% (8% at constant currency) to 2.59 billion euros ($2.8 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) improved 13.2% to 591 million euros ($640 million).
K-pop company SM Entertainment was the week’s best performer after gaining 5.9% to 85,800 won ($63.27). Warner Music Group rose 5.4% to $34.14. iHeartMedia climbed 5.1% to $2.25. Cumulus Media gained 2.6% — and rose 4.2% on Friday — after its first-quarter earnings showed its 2.7% decline in revenue, to $200 million, was in line with previous guidance.
SiriusXM shares improved 3.3% to $3.12 this week despite falling 7.2% on Monday after its first-quarter earnings report showed the company’s self-pay subscribers dropped by 1.4%. Many analysts cut their price targets in the wake of the earnings. Barrington dropped SiriusXM to $4.75 from $5.75 and maintained its “outperform” rating. Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $3.75 from $5 and kept its “hold” rating. Goldman Sachs dropped its price target to $3.25 from $3.50 and upgraded its rating to “neutral” from “sell.”
HYBE was rocked by controversy this week after an audit of one of its subsidiary labels, ADOR, allegedly revealed that the label’s CEO, Min Hee-jin, “deliberately led the plan to take over management control of the subsidiary,” according to a statement sent by the company on Thursday (April 25).
Shares of HYBE fell 7.8% on Monday (April 22) and ended the week down 12.6% to 201,500 won ($146.22). HYBE later reported Min, who owns an 18% stake in ADOR, to the police for “breach of trust and other allegations” and asked her to step down, it said in the April 25 statement. The dispute added to HYBE’s losses at a time when most music stocks are faring well. HYBE shares have fallen 13.7% year to date and 25.4% over the last year.
HYBE was the biggest loser in a week most music companies’ stocks were up. In fact, five music companies’ stocks posted double-digit gains this week and only 7 of the 20 stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index were losers. The index gained 3.2% to 1,756.98, breaking a two-week losing streak and bringing its year-to-date increase to 14.5%.
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The week’s greatest gainer was streaming company LiveOne, which increased 14.5% to $1.90 after it provided two updates to upcoming earnings releases. On Monday, the company announced that it expects fiscal 2024 revenue of $118.5 million, up 19% from $99.5 million the previous year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $14.4 million — about 32% above $10.9 million of EBITDA in the prior year. On Wednesday (April 24), LiveOne announced that PodcastOne expects revenue of $11.7 million in the fiscal fourth quarter 2024, up 32% year over year. LiveOne spun off PodcastOne in 2023 and retained an 81% stake.
Two of the weeks’ best-performing stocks also reached their highest levels in years. Reservoir Media improved 13.8% to $9.10, its highest closing price since the stock closed at $9.20 on May 4, 2022. Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment gained 13.5% to $12.88, its best closing price since it closed at $13.02 on July 13, 2021.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (HSF) gained 12.9% to 1.038 pounds ($1.30) as Concord and Blackstone vie for control of the company’s share equity and 65,000-song portfolio. Notably, Friday’s closing price was 5 cents, or 4%, above Concord’s high bid of $1.25 per share, suggesting that some investors expect the bidding process to continue. As the HSF board weighs its options amidst a strategic review and building strife with its investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management, a sale seems inevitable. “I think investors have been through such a roller coaster most of them just want their money back,” Round Hill Music CEO Josh Gruss told Billboard this week.
Spotify’s stock closed Friday up 5.0% to $289.59 after an up-and-down week. Shares rose 11.5% on Tuesday — and posted an intraday gain of 19.2% — following the release of the company’s first-quarter earnings report but gave back nearly all the gains over the next two days by falling 6.8% and 2.3% on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Tuesday’s (April 23) intraday high of $319.30 was Spotify’s highest share price in over three years. The last time Spotify traded above $319.30 was Mar. 8, 2021, when shares reached $323.04. The stock dropped below $100, to $96.67, on Apr. 27, 2022, and fell as far as $69.29 on Nov. 4, 2022. Since that low point a year and a half ago, as Spotify has cut its workforce and focused on improving margins, its share price has risen 218%.
Indexes around the world posted gains this week. In the United States, the Nasdaq was up 4.2% to 15,927.90 and the S&P 500 improved 2.7% to 5,099.96. Both indexes were helped by Alphabet, which rose 10% to $173.69 on Friday after releasing first-quarter earnings and announcing a $70 billion buyback program. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 3.1% to 8,139.83. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.5% to 2,656.33. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to 3,088.64.
Spotify’s stock jumped as much as 17.3% on Tuesday (April 23) following the company’s first-quarter earnings report showed the company is starting to deliver better profits and margins. The share price closed at $303.49, up 11.5%, after reaching a new 52-week high of $319.30 earlier in the day.
Investors’ expectations for future quarters often drive large swings in stock prices when a company delivers results for past quarters. For Spotify, cost-cutting and newfound financial discipline are expected to produce tangible results next quarter. The company’s guidance for second quarter operating income of 250 million euros ($268 million) was well ahead of Guggenheim analysts’ estimate of 179 million euros ($192 million) and JP Morgan’s estimate of 199 million euros ($213 million), and was a vast improvement from the 247 million euro ($264 million) operating loss in the second quarter of 2023. Gross margin guidance of 28.1% far exceeded Guggenheim’s estimate of 26.6% and JP Morgan’s estimate of 26.9% and would be nearly four percentage points above the prior year period’s 24.3% gross margin.
First-quarter results often exceeded Spotify’s guidance from three months ago. Revenue of 3.63 billion euros ($3.9 billion) slightly topped the high end of guidance of 3.6 billion euros. Gross margin of 27.6% was more than a percentage point above guidance of 26.4%, although operating income of 168 million euros ($180 million) was under guidance of 180 million euros ($192 million).
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Gross margin was 243 basis points — 2.43 percentage points — better than the 25.2% gross margin in the prior year period. Spotify said the improvement came from improved music and podcast profitability that was partially offset by costs from its growing audiobooks business. Operating income was impacted by 82 million euros ($89 million) in social charges and was helped by lower personnel costs and marketing spending.
“We consider this a real trend” rather than the result of one-off events, said interim CFO Ben Kung during Tuesday’s earnings call when asked by an analyst what to expect from margin growth for the remainder of 2024.
Although Spotify didn’t surpass forecasts for subscriber growth, it met expectations and generated more revenue, on average, from each paid customer. Average revenue per user improved 5% to 4.55 euros ($4.94) thanks to price increases in July 2023. Total monthly active users of 615 million was slightly below Spotify’s guidance of 618 million, but the 239 million subscribers matched the company’s forecasts.
“It is really a new Spotify, and we are being relentless resourceful in all of our costs,” CEO Daniel Ek said during Tuesday’s earnings call. Second-quarter margins were helped by decreases in streaming delivery costs and other costs of revenue, Ek explained. The podcast segment, which was a drag on profitability in 2023, is expected to be profitable in 2024, he added.
The longtime knock against Spotify was it had a great product but wasn’t a great business. The economic demands of music streaming, which require Spotify to pay music rights holders most of its revenue, left little for R&D, marketing, salaries, and general and administrative expenses. Although the company has amassed more than 600 million monthly users — 239 million of them paid subscribers — it has been perpetually unprofitable.
Spotify’s fortunes began to change in 2023 after the company knuckled down, laid off 17% of its global workforce in December and jettisoned many high-priced, celebrity podcast deals — namely parting ways with Price Harry and Meghan Markle’s Archewell Studio and striking a non-exclusive deal with the previously exclusive-to-Spotify The Joe Rogan Experience.
Live Nation shares fell 10.9% to $89.98 this week after The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. Department of Justice plans to file a lawsuit against the company in the coming weeks. The DOJ could seek any number of remedies, but, in recent years, there have been calls from both the public and private sectors to break up the company and separate the concert promotion business from the ticketing business.
In February, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who helped organize the Jan. 2023 Senate hearing at which Live Nation president/CFO Joe Berchtold testified, called on lawmakers to “update and enforce antitrust laws” to prevent Live Nation and Ticketmaster from working on concert to “keep ticket prices high.”
“This merger never should have been allowed to happen,” Klobuchar wrote on X in February. “Break them up,” Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote in November 2022 following the Taylor Swift pre-sale fiasco. Likewise, the American Economic Liberties Project and the American Antitrust Institute have both called for the DOJ to break up the company.
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Live Nation shares have fallen 15.1% in the four weeks since the week ended March 22 but remain up 34.3% year to date. The company will report first-quarter earnings on May 2.
The large declines seen among some of the most valuable music companies caused the Billboard Global Music Index to drop 4.5% this week — its largest one-week loss since November 2022. That brought the index’s decline over the past two weeks to 7.5% after it reached an all-time high the week ended April 5.
Major stock indexes also suffered substantial losses this week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 5.5% to 15,282.01 as video streaming giant Netflix and chipmaker Nvidia fell 9.1% and 10%, respectively, on Friday (April 19). The S&P 500 dropped 3.0% to 4,967.23. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell just 1.2% to 7,895.85. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index lost 3.4% to 2,591.86. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was an outlier, rising 1.5% to 3,065.26.
Radio giant iHeartMedia had the biggest decline of the week after dropping 12.8% to $1.90. That brought the company’s year-to-date loss to 28.8% and its 52-week decline to 54.3%. Music streaming leader Spotify suffered the largest drop in terms of lost market capitalization, however, after an 8.2% decline, to $275.79, raised $4.9 billion of market value. Spotify will release first-quarter earnings on Tuesday (April 23).
Hipgnosis Songs Fund shares predictably surged this week on news that Concord has offered to acquire the company for $1.4 billion, or $1.16 (0.94 pounds) per share. The stock finished the week up 24.2% to 0.919 pounds ($1.14), just under Concord’s offer price. The board encouraged shareholders to accept Concord’s bid, which was a 32.2% premium over the prior day’s closing price. That would provide immediate returns, the board explained, because the company needs “substantial financial and governance changes to improve its financial performance” that will suppress the share price in the meantime.
The other big gainers for the week came from South Korea. HYBE gained 8.2% to 230,500 won ($167.70) and SM Entertainment rose 4.0% to 78,100 won ($56.82). Year to date, HYBE is down 1.3% and SM Entertainment is off 15.2%.
Music stocks suffered their biggest one-week decline in nearly a year as inflation fears gripped the markets. In the U.S., the annualized inflation rate rose to 3.5% in March from 3.2% in February, the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday. That drew concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve would alter its plan to cut interest rates in June. Combined with rising oil prices and weaker-than-expected earnings from banking giants JPMorganChase and Wells Fargo, there wasn’t much good news for investors.
Fourteen of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index lost value this week. The index fell 3.2% to 1,782.67, the largest one-week drop since it lost 4.2% for the week ended July 28, 2023. Still, the Billboard Global Music Index is up 16.2% year to date and has increased 43% in the last 12 months.
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Most major stock indexes lost ground this week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 5,123.41 and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5% to 16,175.09. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 1.2% to 2,681.82. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.6% to 3,019.47. The outlier was the U.K.’s FTSE 100, which improved 1.1% to 7,995.58.
Among music stocks, iHeartMedia was the biggest winner of the week after rising 6.3% to $2.18. The improvement came despite a lack of market-moving news or regulatory filing from the radio giant. In fact, the main reason iHeartMedia has been in the news lately has been less than flattering. In March, Forbes reported that iHeartMedia had paid ad revenue from Sen. Ted Cruz’s podcast, Verdict, to his political action committee (PAC). That led BP America to request that iHeartMedia not place its ads on podcasts that funnel ad revenue to PACs. Two campaign watchdogs, Campaign Legal Center and End Citizens United, allege that Cruz violated federal law and on Tuesday (April 9) formally asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund, the London-listed company that invests in music rights, improved 5.7% to 74 pence ($0.92). HSF has gained 7.2% since the company’s board of directors released a damning due diligence report on March 28. Conducted by Shot Tower Capital, the report claimed the fund’s investment manager, Hipgnosis Song Management, overstated revenue and misled investors about the control it had over investments in its portfolio. The board will release its conclusions to the due diligence report by April 26 and will seek shareholder approval for its proposals at a not-yet-announced extraordinary general meeting.
Sphere Entertainment dropped 10.7% to $41.80 this week. On Monday, after Seaport Global downgraded Sphere Entertainment to neutral from a buy rating on growth concerns, the company’s share price dropped 3.8% to $45.00. The stock dropped another 5.3% on Friday despite no news or regulatory filings. U2’s 40-show residency wrapped up on Mar. 2, and the band led Billboard’s Boxscore in February with a $56.5 million ross from 10 concerts. Rock band Phish will perform a four-show run at the Sphere in Las Vegas from April 18-21.
Believe shares dropped 9.8% to 14.88 euros ($15.88) after Warner Music Group announced on Sunday it would not bid on the Paris-listed company. Back on Mar. 7, WMG revealed its interest in acquiring Believe and stated it would pay “at least” 17 euros per share, an amount well above the 15.00 euros ($16.01) per share offer by a CEO-led consortium. Investors immediately bet WMG’s effort would prevail by bidding up Believe shares to nearly 17 euros. From Mar. 28 to April 2, Believe was trading as high as $16.92 and closed above 16.50 euros from Mar. 25 to April 5. With WMG out of the picture, the consortium’s initial offer of 15 euros per share is the new ceiling.
The index’s most valuable companies had relatively mild declines. Universal Music Group fell 2.0% to 27.04 euros ($28.85) and Spotify dropped 3.2% to $300.53. Live Nation lost 2.4% to $100.99. CTS Eventim fell 3.8% to 82.00 euros ($87.50). HYBE declined 4.9% to 213,000 won ($154.28). After deciding not to pursue Believe, Warner Music Group bucked the trend by rising 0.3% to $33.44.
Quarterly earnings reports will give stocks a chance to rebound in the coming weeks. Of the release dates announced thus far, Spotify is first out of the gate on April 23 followed by Believe on April 24, Deezer on April 29, SiriusXM on April 30, Universal Music Group on May 2 and Warner Music Group on May 9.
Shares of Spotify jumped 17.6% to $310.31 this week on a report that the streaming giant will raise prices again in select markets as well as news that it named a new CFO, Christian Luiga, a former CFO and deputy CEO at European defense and security company Saab AB.
Spotify’s newfound willingness to both raise prices and control costs has given new life to its stock price after an expensive entry into podcasting caused a downturn in 2022. Through Friday (April 5), shares of Spotify have increased 65.2% year to date and 134.2% over the past 12 months. Not even Believe, up 57.1% in 2024 thanks to competing interests to acquire the company, has matched Spotify’s momentum this year. Sphere Entertainment has also enjoyed a boost on Wall Street since U2’s inaugural residency at the $2.3-billion Las Vegas venue, but its 37.7% gain in 2024 also lags behind Spotify.
For more than a decade, Spotify kept its subscription prices low and emphasized subscriber growth over profits. The market’s mood has shifted in recent years, though. Once satisfied with growth in user numbers, investors now want high-flying streaming companies to be profitable, too. Since Spotify announced a price increase on July 24, 2023, the share price has increased 89.5% and raised the company’s market capitalization by roughly $29 billion to $61.5 billion. The share price has gone up 71.7% since Spotify announced it would cut 16% of its staff on Dec. 4, 2023.
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This week, investors reacted to a Bloomberg report that Spotify is raising subscription prices in select markets and will pass another rate hike in the United States later this year. Following the news, Spotify gained 8.2% to $291.77 on Wednesday (April 3). Labels appeared to benefit, too: Universal Music Group rose 5.5% and Warner Music Group gained 5.8% on Wednesday following news of the price increase.
Rather than shy away from price increases in successive years, Spotify could have a unique ability to withstand higher prices compared to its peers. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an investor note on Thursday (April 4) that music is “broadly under-monetized” and the quality of Spotify’s product gives it “unique pricing power.” Guggenheim analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday that they believe the price increase could mean a “9% revenue impact” in the affected markets.
What’s more, the higher prices could help Spotify by improving its audiobook business. Spotify now gives subscribers in the United States and some other markets 15 hours of free audiobook streaming per month; users can also purchase additional listening time and buy audiobooks to keep. A recent Morgan Stanley survey revealed Spotify was used by 38% of audiobook listeners, second only to veteran audiobook platform Audible despite Spotify having launched audiobooks only a few months before the survey. “Audiobooks appear to be perhaps a larger revenue opportunity than podcasting based on this survey works and long-standing consumer price points for books,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
The Billboard Global Music Index dropped 0.2% to 1,748.38 as nine of the index’s 20 stocks were winners, 10 were losers and one was unchanged. No company other than Spotify posted a double-digit increase, however, and three companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and Anghami — had double-digit declines.
Stocks were mixed globally this week. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8% to 16,248.52 and the S&P 500 fell 1.0% to 5,204.34. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5% to 7,911.16. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% to 3,069.30. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index lost 1.2% to 2,714.21.
Music streaming company Anghami (NASDAQ: ANGH) was the biggest loser of the week after dropping 41.1% — it lost 44.5% on Wednesday alone — after OSN Group, a premium entertainment provider for the Middle East-North Africa region, acquired a 55.45% stake. The deal, first announced in November 2023, combines the Abu Dhabi on-demand music streaming service with a paid, on-demand video streaming platform that carries both Arabic and Turkish titles and content from Western brands such as HBO, Universal Pictures and Paramount.
HYBE shares jumped 17.5% to 230,000 won ($170.84) this week following news that the company struck a 10-year partnership with Universal Music Group (UMG) that calls for the label to distribute HYBE’s physical and digital music and put its artists on HYBE’s Weverse social media platform. HYBE America CEO Scooter Braun will oversee all promotional and marketing collaborations between the two companies. After dropping 9.1% over the previous four weeks, the announcement brought the South Korean company’s year-to-date deficit to just 1.5%.
Another K-pop company, SM Entertainment, was one of five music companies to post double-digit stock gains this week, with its shares rising 14% to 87,800 won ($65.22). On Wednesday (March 27), the company announced the appointment of Tak Young-jun to co-CEO alongside existing CEO Jang Cheol-hyuk. SM Entertainment also announced a 1,200-won ($0.89) per-share dividend totaling 28.1 billion won ($20.8 million), an amount equal to the prior year’s dividend.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 1.9% to a record 1,752.24 as 16 stocks posted gains, only three lost ground and one was unchanged. Even with an unusually high number of winners, the float-adjusted index, which gives greater weight to more valuable companies, fell this week because two of the three losers are among the most valuable music companies. Spotify, which has a market capitalization of roughly $50 billion, fell 0.4% to $263.90. Live Nation fell 0.2% to $105.77; its market capitalization is about $24 billion. Two more of the index’s largest companies had gains under 2%: UMG rose 1.6% to 27.88 euros ($30.11) and Warner Music Group (WMG) improved 1.4% to $33.02. Another valuable member of the index, Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment, rose 2.2% to $11.19.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund shares climbed 13.5% to 69 pence ($0.87) after the company’s board of directors released an internal report on Thursday (March 28) that showed the fund’s investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management, “materially” overstated annual revenue and misled investors about the amount of control exercised over the rights in its portfolio. The negative news was welcomed by investors who have taken issue with the company’s accounting practices and portfolio valuation. Hipgnosis shares traded as low as 52.9 pence ($0.67) on March 4 but have rebounded since the company overhauled its board and hired Shot Tower Capital to put together the due diligence report.
CTS Eventim, the German live events promoter and ticketing company, rose 11.1% to 82.45 euros ($89.05) after releasing earnings for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 on Tuesday (March 26). The company expects “a moderate rise” in total revenue in 2024. Demand is “rising continuously,” CEO Klaus-Peter Schulenberg wrote in the annual report, and the company expects the recent decline in inflation to provide “new, consumption-driven impetus for growth in the future.”
Believe shares rose 7.2% this week to 16.92 euros ($18.27) following the company’s announcement that it will accept a formal offer from WMG by April 7. WMG revealed its interest in Belief on March 7 and said it would be willing to pay at least 17 euros ($18.36) per share. A consortium that includes Believe CEO Denis Ladegaillerie has lined up a large block of shares and is willing to offer 15 euros ($16.20) per share for the remainder. With Believe shares currently trading so close to WMG’s soft bid, investors apparently don’t think the consortium’s original offer is going to suffice.
Stocks were mixed as the trading week was shortened by some exchanges’ closure for Good Friday. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3% to 16,379.46 and the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,254.35. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 7,952.62. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 0.1% to 2,746.63. China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.2% to 3,041.17.
Music stocks’ performance this week was a microcosm of the entertainment industry this decade, with streaming companies making up the top four performers while legacy broadcasting stocks finished at the bottom of the heap.
Chinese music streaming company Tencent Music Entertainment rose 6.0% to $10.95 following the company’s encouraging full-year earnings results on Tuesday (Mar. 19). Although total revenue declined 2.1%, the online music part of the business is booming. Subscription revenue from QQ Music, Kuwo Music and Kugou Music increased 39.1% to $1.7 billion while the number of subscribers grew by 18.2 million to 106.7 million. Tencent Music shares reached a 52-week high of $11.80 on Thursday (Mar. 21) but dropped 4% on Friday (Mar. 22) following news that Zhenyu Xie, president/chief technology officer, tendered his resignation. Xie will be replaced on the board of directors by CFO Shirley Hu.
Spotify gained 3.9% to $264.95, bringing its year-to-date improvement to 41.0%. On Tuesday, the streaming company released its fourth annual Loud & Clear report, a breakdown of the prior year’s royalty payouts. In 2023, the number of artists who received at least $10,000 from Spotify increased 16% to 66,000 — 2.7 times more than the number who received that much in 2017. The number of artists who earned $1 million or more from Spotify rose 18% to 1,250.
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Two smaller companies posted even larger gains. Anghami shares rocketed 56.8% to $1.74 this week and reached as high as $2.20 after a regulatory filing revealed that Saudi media company MBC Group had amassed nearly a 14% stake in the Abu Dhabi-based music streamer. The investment helped give Anghami some breathing room after the Nasdaq warned in October that the stock faced delisting for closing under $1 for the prior 30 days. Anghami closed below $1 from Feb. 1 to Mar. 7 but has closed above $1 since Mar. 15.
LiveOne jumped 10.9% to $2.04 after announcing on Monday (Mar. 18) that it expects record quarterly revenue with the help of increased Tesla sales, 30 new podcasts and more than $2 million in monthly recurring revenue from clients in its B2B streaming business. Additionally, the company revealed that it repurchased $250,000 worth of stock in the previous 30 days and extinguished $3 million of payables of PodcastOne, the podcast company it spun off in September 2023.
Streaming companies’ gains helped the Billboard Global Music Index rise 1.3% to a record 1,719.66 this week, breaking a two-week skid and topping the previous record of 1,715.81 set the week ended Mar. 1. The 20-company index had an even number of winners and losers.
Major indexes rose to new heights after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated the central bank still expected three interest rate cuts in 2024 despite a recent increase in inflation. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 2.9% to 16,428.82, a new closing high, and reached an intraday high on Thursday. The S&P 500 finished the week up 2.3% to 5,234.18, even after falling 0.1% on Friday. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 2.6% to 7,930.92. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 3.1% to 2,748.56. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3,048.03.
Broadcasters were at the opposite end of the spectrum. The index’s biggest decliner was iHeartMedia, which fell 7.7% to $1.91. After a sluggish year for national advertising, iHeartMedia executives have predicted 2024 will be “a recovery year” and first-quarter revenue decline will be less severe than previous quarters. Maybe so, but investors have dropped its stock 28.5% year to date.
Two other radio companies were among the bottom four stocks. Cumulus Media shares fell 6.6% to $3.41 and are down 35.9% in the first 12 weeks of the year. Cumulus’ revenue was down 11.4% in 2023, and CEO Mary Berner warned investors in February that “choppy” ad demand limited its ability to forecast in 2024.
SiriusXM, which is optimistic about its redesigned streaming app, dropped 4.2% to $3.88 and has fallen 29.1% this year. Liberty Media, which owns 84% of SiriusXM’s outstanding shares, plans to merge the SiriusXM stock with the Liberty SiriusXM track stock later this year.
Live Nation shares gained 4.0% to hit $103.77 this week, marking the stock’s best closing price since May 2, 2022, and the first time the concert promotion giant had five straight closes above $100 since late April and early May that same year.
Other music stocks didn’t fare as well. Most of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index dropped this week, with 13 stocks losing ground and just seven finishing the week in positive territory. The index fell 0.1% to 1,697.90, marking the first time it’s decreased in successive weeks since it fell during three consecutive weeks in October 2023. Multi-week declines are rare for the index: Since the beginning of 2023, it has had just two two-week declines, two three-week declines and one four-week decline (in July and August 2023). This week’s slight drop brought the index’s year-to-date gain to 10.8%.
In a relatively quiet week free of earnings releases or market-moving news, there was roughly an even mix of gains and losses from the most valuable companies. Universal Music Group increased 2.1% to 27.32 euros ($29.77) while Spotify dropped 1.7% to $254.89 and Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 2.9% to $32.94. Elsewhere, German promoter CTS Eventim rose 2.1% to 76.70 euros ($83.56) and reached a new 52-week high of 77.80 euros ($84.76).
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K-pop companies rebounded after a string of weekly declines. HYBE improved 2.3% to 199,000 won ($149.59) and SM Entertainment climbed 2.5% to 74,900 won ($56.30). YG Entertainment jumped 6.3% to 43,050 won ($32.36) but is still down 19.6% year to date.
French indie music company Believe finished at 15.52 euros ($16.91), still well above the 15.00 euros ($16.34) tender offer by a consortium that seeks to take the company private. WMG has expressed interest in Believe at 17.00 euros ($18.52) per share.
The companies with the largest gains and losses are among the least valuable on the index. The week’s greatest gainer was Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami, which rose 15.6% to $1.11 and has a market capitalization of just $30.7 million — less than 0.1% of Spotify’s. Radio broadcast giant iHeartMedia and French music streamer Deezer had the index’s biggest losses of 10.0% and 10.3%, but iHeartMedia’s market cap is only $255 million while Deezer’s is about 245 million euros ($267 million).
The index’s four live music stocks had an average gain of 0.9% this week, topping the 0.4% gain of the seven record label and publishing stocks. Five streaming stocks averaged a less than 0.1% decline. Three radio companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM — had an average decline of 5.1%.
Key U.S. indexes also saw small declines this week. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.7% to 15,973.17. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 5,117.09. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 0.9% to 7,727.42. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.5% to 2,666.84. China’s Shanghai Composite Index grew 0.3% to 3,054.64.