Music Stocks
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Spotify’s stock jumped as much as 17.3% on Tuesday (April 23) following the company’s first-quarter earnings report showed the company is starting to deliver better profits and margins. The share price closed at $303.49, up 11.5%, after reaching a new 52-week high of $319.30 earlier in the day.
Investors’ expectations for future quarters often drive large swings in stock prices when a company delivers results for past quarters. For Spotify, cost-cutting and newfound financial discipline are expected to produce tangible results next quarter. The company’s guidance for second quarter operating income of 250 million euros ($268 million) was well ahead of Guggenheim analysts’ estimate of 179 million euros ($192 million) and JP Morgan’s estimate of 199 million euros ($213 million), and was a vast improvement from the 247 million euro ($264 million) operating loss in the second quarter of 2023. Gross margin guidance of 28.1% far exceeded Guggenheim’s estimate of 26.6% and JP Morgan’s estimate of 26.9% and would be nearly four percentage points above the prior year period’s 24.3% gross margin.
First-quarter results often exceeded Spotify’s guidance from three months ago. Revenue of 3.63 billion euros ($3.9 billion) slightly topped the high end of guidance of 3.6 billion euros. Gross margin of 27.6% was more than a percentage point above guidance of 26.4%, although operating income of 168 million euros ($180 million) was under guidance of 180 million euros ($192 million).
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Gross margin was 243 basis points — 2.43 percentage points — better than the 25.2% gross margin in the prior year period. Spotify said the improvement came from improved music and podcast profitability that was partially offset by costs from its growing audiobooks business. Operating income was impacted by 82 million euros ($89 million) in social charges and was helped by lower personnel costs and marketing spending.
“We consider this a real trend” rather than the result of one-off events, said interim CFO Ben Kung during Tuesday’s earnings call when asked by an analyst what to expect from margin growth for the remainder of 2024.
Although Spotify didn’t surpass forecasts for subscriber growth, it met expectations and generated more revenue, on average, from each paid customer. Average revenue per user improved 5% to 4.55 euros ($4.94) thanks to price increases in July 2023. Total monthly active users of 615 million was slightly below Spotify’s guidance of 618 million, but the 239 million subscribers matched the company’s forecasts.
“It is really a new Spotify, and we are being relentless resourceful in all of our costs,” CEO Daniel Ek said during Tuesday’s earnings call. Second-quarter margins were helped by decreases in streaming delivery costs and other costs of revenue, Ek explained. The podcast segment, which was a drag on profitability in 2023, is expected to be profitable in 2024, he added.
The longtime knock against Spotify was it had a great product but wasn’t a great business. The economic demands of music streaming, which require Spotify to pay music rights holders most of its revenue, left little for R&D, marketing, salaries, and general and administrative expenses. Although the company has amassed more than 600 million monthly users — 239 million of them paid subscribers — it has been perpetually unprofitable.
Spotify’s fortunes began to change in 2023 after the company knuckled down, laid off 17% of its global workforce in December and jettisoned many high-priced, celebrity podcast deals — namely parting ways with Price Harry and Meghan Markle’s Archewell Studio and striking a non-exclusive deal with the previously exclusive-to-Spotify The Joe Rogan Experience.
Live Nation shares fell 10.9% to $89.98 this week after The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. Department of Justice plans to file a lawsuit against the company in the coming weeks. The DOJ could seek any number of remedies, but, in recent years, there have been calls from both the public and private sectors to break up the company and separate the concert promotion business from the ticketing business.
In February, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who helped organize the Jan. 2023 Senate hearing at which Live Nation president/CFO Joe Berchtold testified, called on lawmakers to “update and enforce antitrust laws” to prevent Live Nation and Ticketmaster from working on concert to “keep ticket prices high.”
“This merger never should have been allowed to happen,” Klobuchar wrote on X in February. “Break them up,” Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote in November 2022 following the Taylor Swift pre-sale fiasco. Likewise, the American Economic Liberties Project and the American Antitrust Institute have both called for the DOJ to break up the company.
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Live Nation shares have fallen 15.1% in the four weeks since the week ended March 22 but remain up 34.3% year to date. The company will report first-quarter earnings on May 2.
The large declines seen among some of the most valuable music companies caused the Billboard Global Music Index to drop 4.5% this week — its largest one-week loss since November 2022. That brought the index’s decline over the past two weeks to 7.5% after it reached an all-time high the week ended April 5.
Major stock indexes also suffered substantial losses this week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 5.5% to 15,282.01 as video streaming giant Netflix and chipmaker Nvidia fell 9.1% and 10%, respectively, on Friday (April 19). The S&P 500 dropped 3.0% to 4,967.23. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell just 1.2% to 7,895.85. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index lost 3.4% to 2,591.86. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was an outlier, rising 1.5% to 3,065.26.
Radio giant iHeartMedia had the biggest decline of the week after dropping 12.8% to $1.90. That brought the company’s year-to-date loss to 28.8% and its 52-week decline to 54.3%. Music streaming leader Spotify suffered the largest drop in terms of lost market capitalization, however, after an 8.2% decline, to $275.79, raised $4.9 billion of market value. Spotify will release first-quarter earnings on Tuesday (April 23).
Hipgnosis Songs Fund shares predictably surged this week on news that Concord has offered to acquire the company for $1.4 billion, or $1.16 (0.94 pounds) per share. The stock finished the week up 24.2% to 0.919 pounds ($1.14), just under Concord’s offer price. The board encouraged shareholders to accept Concord’s bid, which was a 32.2% premium over the prior day’s closing price. That would provide immediate returns, the board explained, because the company needs “substantial financial and governance changes to improve its financial performance” that will suppress the share price in the meantime.
The other big gainers for the week came from South Korea. HYBE gained 8.2% to 230,500 won ($167.70) and SM Entertainment rose 4.0% to 78,100 won ($56.82). Year to date, HYBE is down 1.3% and SM Entertainment is off 15.2%.
Music stocks suffered their biggest one-week decline in nearly a year as inflation fears gripped the markets. In the U.S., the annualized inflation rate rose to 3.5% in March from 3.2% in February, the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday. That drew concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve would alter its plan to cut interest rates in June. Combined with rising oil prices and weaker-than-expected earnings from banking giants JPMorganChase and Wells Fargo, there wasn’t much good news for investors.
Fourteen of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index lost value this week. The index fell 3.2% to 1,782.67, the largest one-week drop since it lost 4.2% for the week ended July 28, 2023. Still, the Billboard Global Music Index is up 16.2% year to date and has increased 43% in the last 12 months.
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Most major stock indexes lost ground this week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 5,123.41 and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5% to 16,175.09. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 1.2% to 2,681.82. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.6% to 3,019.47. The outlier was the U.K.’s FTSE 100, which improved 1.1% to 7,995.58.
Among music stocks, iHeartMedia was the biggest winner of the week after rising 6.3% to $2.18. The improvement came despite a lack of market-moving news or regulatory filing from the radio giant. In fact, the main reason iHeartMedia has been in the news lately has been less than flattering. In March, Forbes reported that iHeartMedia had paid ad revenue from Sen. Ted Cruz’s podcast, Verdict, to his political action committee (PAC). That led BP America to request that iHeartMedia not place its ads on podcasts that funnel ad revenue to PACs. Two campaign watchdogs, Campaign Legal Center and End Citizens United, allege that Cruz violated federal law and on Tuesday (April 9) formally asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund, the London-listed company that invests in music rights, improved 5.7% to 74 pence ($0.92). HSF has gained 7.2% since the company’s board of directors released a damning due diligence report on March 28. Conducted by Shot Tower Capital, the report claimed the fund’s investment manager, Hipgnosis Song Management, overstated revenue and misled investors about the control it had over investments in its portfolio. The board will release its conclusions to the due diligence report by April 26 and will seek shareholder approval for its proposals at a not-yet-announced extraordinary general meeting.
Sphere Entertainment dropped 10.7% to $41.80 this week. On Monday, after Seaport Global downgraded Sphere Entertainment to neutral from a buy rating on growth concerns, the company’s share price dropped 3.8% to $45.00. The stock dropped another 5.3% on Friday despite no news or regulatory filings. U2’s 40-show residency wrapped up on Mar. 2, and the band led Billboard’s Boxscore in February with a $56.5 million ross from 10 concerts. Rock band Phish will perform a four-show run at the Sphere in Las Vegas from April 18-21.
Believe shares dropped 9.8% to 14.88 euros ($15.88) after Warner Music Group announced on Sunday it would not bid on the Paris-listed company. Back on Mar. 7, WMG revealed its interest in acquiring Believe and stated it would pay “at least” 17 euros per share, an amount well above the 15.00 euros ($16.01) per share offer by a CEO-led consortium. Investors immediately bet WMG’s effort would prevail by bidding up Believe shares to nearly 17 euros. From Mar. 28 to April 2, Believe was trading as high as $16.92 and closed above 16.50 euros from Mar. 25 to April 5. With WMG out of the picture, the consortium’s initial offer of 15 euros per share is the new ceiling.
The index’s most valuable companies had relatively mild declines. Universal Music Group fell 2.0% to 27.04 euros ($28.85) and Spotify dropped 3.2% to $300.53. Live Nation lost 2.4% to $100.99. CTS Eventim fell 3.8% to 82.00 euros ($87.50). HYBE declined 4.9% to 213,000 won ($154.28). After deciding not to pursue Believe, Warner Music Group bucked the trend by rising 0.3% to $33.44.
Quarterly earnings reports will give stocks a chance to rebound in the coming weeks. Of the release dates announced thus far, Spotify is first out of the gate on April 23 followed by Believe on April 24, Deezer on April 29, SiriusXM on April 30, Universal Music Group on May 2 and Warner Music Group on May 9.
Shares of Spotify jumped 17.6% to $310.31 this week on a report that the streaming giant will raise prices again in select markets as well as news that it named a new CFO, Christian Luiga, a former CFO and deputy CEO at European defense and security company Saab AB.
Spotify’s newfound willingness to both raise prices and control costs has given new life to its stock price after an expensive entry into podcasting caused a downturn in 2022. Through Friday (April 5), shares of Spotify have increased 65.2% year to date and 134.2% over the past 12 months. Not even Believe, up 57.1% in 2024 thanks to competing interests to acquire the company, has matched Spotify’s momentum this year. Sphere Entertainment has also enjoyed a boost on Wall Street since U2’s inaugural residency at the $2.3-billion Las Vegas venue, but its 37.7% gain in 2024 also lags behind Spotify.
For more than a decade, Spotify kept its subscription prices low and emphasized subscriber growth over profits. The market’s mood has shifted in recent years, though. Once satisfied with growth in user numbers, investors now want high-flying streaming companies to be profitable, too. Since Spotify announced a price increase on July 24, 2023, the share price has increased 89.5% and raised the company’s market capitalization by roughly $29 billion to $61.5 billion. The share price has gone up 71.7% since Spotify announced it would cut 16% of its staff on Dec. 4, 2023.
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This week, investors reacted to a Bloomberg report that Spotify is raising subscription prices in select markets and will pass another rate hike in the United States later this year. Following the news, Spotify gained 8.2% to $291.77 on Wednesday (April 3). Labels appeared to benefit, too: Universal Music Group rose 5.5% and Warner Music Group gained 5.8% on Wednesday following news of the price increase.
Rather than shy away from price increases in successive years, Spotify could have a unique ability to withstand higher prices compared to its peers. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an investor note on Thursday (April 4) that music is “broadly under-monetized” and the quality of Spotify’s product gives it “unique pricing power.” Guggenheim analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday that they believe the price increase could mean a “9% revenue impact” in the affected markets.
What’s more, the higher prices could help Spotify by improving its audiobook business. Spotify now gives subscribers in the United States and some other markets 15 hours of free audiobook streaming per month; users can also purchase additional listening time and buy audiobooks to keep. A recent Morgan Stanley survey revealed Spotify was used by 38% of audiobook listeners, second only to veteran audiobook platform Audible despite Spotify having launched audiobooks only a few months before the survey. “Audiobooks appear to be perhaps a larger revenue opportunity than podcasting based on this survey works and long-standing consumer price points for books,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
The Billboard Global Music Index dropped 0.2% to 1,748.38 as nine of the index’s 20 stocks were winners, 10 were losers and one was unchanged. No company other than Spotify posted a double-digit increase, however, and three companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and Anghami — had double-digit declines.
Stocks were mixed globally this week. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8% to 16,248.52 and the S&P 500 fell 1.0% to 5,204.34. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5% to 7,911.16. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% to 3,069.30. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index lost 1.2% to 2,714.21.
Music streaming company Anghami (NASDAQ: ANGH) was the biggest loser of the week after dropping 41.1% — it lost 44.5% on Wednesday alone — after OSN Group, a premium entertainment provider for the Middle East-North Africa region, acquired a 55.45% stake. The deal, first announced in November 2023, combines the Abu Dhabi on-demand music streaming service with a paid, on-demand video streaming platform that carries both Arabic and Turkish titles and content from Western brands such as HBO, Universal Pictures and Paramount.
HYBE shares jumped 17.5% to 230,000 won ($170.84) this week following news that the company struck a 10-year partnership with Universal Music Group (UMG) that calls for the label to distribute HYBE’s physical and digital music and put its artists on HYBE’s Weverse social media platform. HYBE America CEO Scooter Braun will oversee all promotional and marketing collaborations between the two companies. After dropping 9.1% over the previous four weeks, the announcement brought the South Korean company’s year-to-date deficit to just 1.5%.
Another K-pop company, SM Entertainment, was one of five music companies to post double-digit stock gains this week, with its shares rising 14% to 87,800 won ($65.22). On Wednesday (March 27), the company announced the appointment of Tak Young-jun to co-CEO alongside existing CEO Jang Cheol-hyuk. SM Entertainment also announced a 1,200-won ($0.89) per-share dividend totaling 28.1 billion won ($20.8 million), an amount equal to the prior year’s dividend.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 1.9% to a record 1,752.24 as 16 stocks posted gains, only three lost ground and one was unchanged. Even with an unusually high number of winners, the float-adjusted index, which gives greater weight to more valuable companies, fell this week because two of the three losers are among the most valuable music companies. Spotify, which has a market capitalization of roughly $50 billion, fell 0.4% to $263.90. Live Nation fell 0.2% to $105.77; its market capitalization is about $24 billion. Two more of the index’s largest companies had gains under 2%: UMG rose 1.6% to 27.88 euros ($30.11) and Warner Music Group (WMG) improved 1.4% to $33.02. Another valuable member of the index, Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment, rose 2.2% to $11.19.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund shares climbed 13.5% to 69 pence ($0.87) after the company’s board of directors released an internal report on Thursday (March 28) that showed the fund’s investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management, “materially” overstated annual revenue and misled investors about the amount of control exercised over the rights in its portfolio. The negative news was welcomed by investors who have taken issue with the company’s accounting practices and portfolio valuation. Hipgnosis shares traded as low as 52.9 pence ($0.67) on March 4 but have rebounded since the company overhauled its board and hired Shot Tower Capital to put together the due diligence report.
CTS Eventim, the German live events promoter and ticketing company, rose 11.1% to 82.45 euros ($89.05) after releasing earnings for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 on Tuesday (March 26). The company expects “a moderate rise” in total revenue in 2024. Demand is “rising continuously,” CEO Klaus-Peter Schulenberg wrote in the annual report, and the company expects the recent decline in inflation to provide “new, consumption-driven impetus for growth in the future.”
Believe shares rose 7.2% this week to 16.92 euros ($18.27) following the company’s announcement that it will accept a formal offer from WMG by April 7. WMG revealed its interest in Belief on March 7 and said it would be willing to pay at least 17 euros ($18.36) per share. A consortium that includes Believe CEO Denis Ladegaillerie has lined up a large block of shares and is willing to offer 15 euros ($16.20) per share for the remainder. With Believe shares currently trading so close to WMG’s soft bid, investors apparently don’t think the consortium’s original offer is going to suffice.
Stocks were mixed as the trading week was shortened by some exchanges’ closure for Good Friday. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3% to 16,379.46 and the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,254.35. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 7,952.62. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 0.1% to 2,746.63. China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.2% to 3,041.17.
Music stocks’ performance this week was a microcosm of the entertainment industry this decade, with streaming companies making up the top four performers while legacy broadcasting stocks finished at the bottom of the heap.
Chinese music streaming company Tencent Music Entertainment rose 6.0% to $10.95 following the company’s encouraging full-year earnings results on Tuesday (Mar. 19). Although total revenue declined 2.1%, the online music part of the business is booming. Subscription revenue from QQ Music, Kuwo Music and Kugou Music increased 39.1% to $1.7 billion while the number of subscribers grew by 18.2 million to 106.7 million. Tencent Music shares reached a 52-week high of $11.80 on Thursday (Mar. 21) but dropped 4% on Friday (Mar. 22) following news that Zhenyu Xie, president/chief technology officer, tendered his resignation. Xie will be replaced on the board of directors by CFO Shirley Hu.
Spotify gained 3.9% to $264.95, bringing its year-to-date improvement to 41.0%. On Tuesday, the streaming company released its fourth annual Loud & Clear report, a breakdown of the prior year’s royalty payouts. In 2023, the number of artists who received at least $10,000 from Spotify increased 16% to 66,000 — 2.7 times more than the number who received that much in 2017. The number of artists who earned $1 million or more from Spotify rose 18% to 1,250.
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Two smaller companies posted even larger gains. Anghami shares rocketed 56.8% to $1.74 this week and reached as high as $2.20 after a regulatory filing revealed that Saudi media company MBC Group had amassed nearly a 14% stake in the Abu Dhabi-based music streamer. The investment helped give Anghami some breathing room after the Nasdaq warned in October that the stock faced delisting for closing under $1 for the prior 30 days. Anghami closed below $1 from Feb. 1 to Mar. 7 but has closed above $1 since Mar. 15.
LiveOne jumped 10.9% to $2.04 after announcing on Monday (Mar. 18) that it expects record quarterly revenue with the help of increased Tesla sales, 30 new podcasts and more than $2 million in monthly recurring revenue from clients in its B2B streaming business. Additionally, the company revealed that it repurchased $250,000 worth of stock in the previous 30 days and extinguished $3 million of payables of PodcastOne, the podcast company it spun off in September 2023.
Streaming companies’ gains helped the Billboard Global Music Index rise 1.3% to a record 1,719.66 this week, breaking a two-week skid and topping the previous record of 1,715.81 set the week ended Mar. 1. The 20-company index had an even number of winners and losers.
Major indexes rose to new heights after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated the central bank still expected three interest rate cuts in 2024 despite a recent increase in inflation. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 2.9% to 16,428.82, a new closing high, and reached an intraday high on Thursday. The S&P 500 finished the week up 2.3% to 5,234.18, even after falling 0.1% on Friday. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 2.6% to 7,930.92. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 3.1% to 2,748.56. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3,048.03.
Broadcasters were at the opposite end of the spectrum. The index’s biggest decliner was iHeartMedia, which fell 7.7% to $1.91. After a sluggish year for national advertising, iHeartMedia executives have predicted 2024 will be “a recovery year” and first-quarter revenue decline will be less severe than previous quarters. Maybe so, but investors have dropped its stock 28.5% year to date.
Two other radio companies were among the bottom four stocks. Cumulus Media shares fell 6.6% to $3.41 and are down 35.9% in the first 12 weeks of the year. Cumulus’ revenue was down 11.4% in 2023, and CEO Mary Berner warned investors in February that “choppy” ad demand limited its ability to forecast in 2024.
SiriusXM, which is optimistic about its redesigned streaming app, dropped 4.2% to $3.88 and has fallen 29.1% this year. Liberty Media, which owns 84% of SiriusXM’s outstanding shares, plans to merge the SiriusXM stock with the Liberty SiriusXM track stock later this year.
Live Nation shares gained 4.0% to hit $103.77 this week, marking the stock’s best closing price since May 2, 2022, and the first time the concert promotion giant had five straight closes above $100 since late April and early May that same year.
Other music stocks didn’t fare as well. Most of the 20 companies in the Billboard Global Music Index dropped this week, with 13 stocks losing ground and just seven finishing the week in positive territory. The index fell 0.1% to 1,697.90, marking the first time it’s decreased in successive weeks since it fell during three consecutive weeks in October 2023. Multi-week declines are rare for the index: Since the beginning of 2023, it has had just two two-week declines, two three-week declines and one four-week decline (in July and August 2023). This week’s slight drop brought the index’s year-to-date gain to 10.8%.
In a relatively quiet week free of earnings releases or market-moving news, there was roughly an even mix of gains and losses from the most valuable companies. Universal Music Group increased 2.1% to 27.32 euros ($29.77) while Spotify dropped 1.7% to $254.89 and Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 2.9% to $32.94. Elsewhere, German promoter CTS Eventim rose 2.1% to 76.70 euros ($83.56) and reached a new 52-week high of 77.80 euros ($84.76).
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K-pop companies rebounded after a string of weekly declines. HYBE improved 2.3% to 199,000 won ($149.59) and SM Entertainment climbed 2.5% to 74,900 won ($56.30). YG Entertainment jumped 6.3% to 43,050 won ($32.36) but is still down 19.6% year to date.
French indie music company Believe finished at 15.52 euros ($16.91), still well above the 15.00 euros ($16.34) tender offer by a consortium that seeks to take the company private. WMG has expressed interest in Believe at 17.00 euros ($18.52) per share.
The companies with the largest gains and losses are among the least valuable on the index. The week’s greatest gainer was Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami, which rose 15.6% to $1.11 and has a market capitalization of just $30.7 million — less than 0.1% of Spotify’s. Radio broadcast giant iHeartMedia and French music streamer Deezer had the index’s biggest losses of 10.0% and 10.3%, but iHeartMedia’s market cap is only $255 million while Deezer’s is about 245 million euros ($267 million).
The index’s four live music stocks had an average gain of 0.9% this week, topping the 0.4% gain of the seven record label and publishing stocks. Five streaming stocks averaged a less than 0.1% decline. Three radio companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM — had an average decline of 5.1%.
Key U.S. indexes also saw small declines this week. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.7% to 15,973.17. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 5,117.09. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 0.9% to 7,727.42. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index declined 0.5% to 2,666.84. China’s Shanghai Composite Index grew 0.3% to 3,054.64.
(WMG) revealed its interest in acquiring the French music company.
Believe shares rose 2.5% to 15.88 euros ($17.38) after WMG announced its interest in the owner of distributor TuneCore, publishing administrator Sentric and such record labels as Naïve and Groove Attack. Last week, Believe announced it had interest from an unnamed party, which caused the share price to exceed the 15 euro ($16.52) per share offer from a consortium led by CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and investment funds EQT and TCV. After the potential suitor was given a name, Believe’s share price rose even more. WMG, which hasn’t made an official offer, said it would pay “at least” 17 euros ($18.60) per share. WMG shares fell 4.4% to $33.93 this week.
With Believe trading at 15.88 euros ($17.38), investors don’t appear convinced that WMG will make an offer at 17.00 euros. Not only would WMG need to pass regulatory scrutiny, the Ladegaillerie consortium has a head start and appears to be moving quickly to close the deal. Last week, the consortium said it waived the board’s condition that an independent expert weigh in on its offer’s fairness to shareholders. WMG’s announcement singled out the maneuver, stating that “WMG considers that such a waiver violates a number of rules of French securities regulations which are meant to protect shareholders (including the sellers and their investors) and the Company, and that the validity of such waiver could be challenged.”
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares rose 10.1% this week to $48.77, adding $127 million to the company’s market capitalization and bringing its year-to-date gain to 43.5%. Three of four live music companies posted gains in an otherwise muted week for music stocks: German promoter CTS Eventim gained 2.2% to 75.10 euros ($82.19), while on Thursday (Mar. 7), Live Nation shares surpassed $100 for the first time since May 2, 2022. The concert giant finished the week up 2.7% to $99.75.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index fell 0.9% to 1,700.37 this week as half the stocks were gainers, nine were losers and one was unchanged. Streaming stocks had an average gain of 4.2% thanks to an 18.4% improvement by music streamer LiveOne. Abu Dhabi-based streaming company Anghami rose 3.2%. The bigger streaming companies lost ground, however. Spotify fell 1.6% to $259.40, a rare stumble for a stock that has gained 38.1% year to date. Deezer shares dropped 0.4% to 2.24 euros ($2.45).
K-pop stocks were down across the board this week. JYP Entertainment, home to Twice and Stray Kids, fell 8.0%. SM Entertainment, home to aespa and Girls’ Generation, dropped 6.5%. HYBE sank 2.3% and YG Entertainment, the company behind BLACKPINK, slipped 1%. The four companies have an average year-to-date loss of 22.7%. HYBE’s 16.7% decline in 2024 is the best of the group. Elsewhere, JYP Entertainment shares have fallen 33.1% and SM Entertainment and YG Entertainment dropped 20.6% and 20.4%, respectively.
Stocks were mixed globally. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.2% to 16,085.94 and the S&P 500 declined 0.3% to 5,123.69. U.S. stocks reached new records on Thursday following comments by Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell that indicated the central bank will ease interest rates. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Powell told the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday (Mar. 6).
Stocks ended the week on a down note after Friday’s U.S. jobs report offered mixed messages to investors. Total confirmed payroll rose by 275,000 in February, but at the same time, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% and wages rose just 0.1% in February — not necessarily welcome indicators, but perhaps signs that the Federal Reserve can move ahead with future rate cuts without fearing the economy will overheat.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 7,659.74. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 1.4% to 2,680.35. China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange index improved 0.6% to 3,046.02.
Universal Music Group (UMG) shares rose 4.9% on Thursday (Feb. 29), the day after its fourth-quarter earnings revealed record revenue of 11.1 billion euros ($12 billion) in 2023 and strong subscription-related growth in the fourth quarter. The music giant’s stock finished the week up 2.3% to 27.87 euros ($30.25), bringing its year-to-date gain to 6.8%.
Investors also received details about the financial impacts of UMG’s company-wide layoffs. A reduction in global headcount is expected to save 75 million euros ($81.3 million) in 2024, 125 million euros ($135.5 million) in 2025 and 250 million euros ($271 million) annually by 2026. UMG has not specified the number of employees being laid off, but Billboard had identified nearly 50 across the company by Friday afternoon (Mar. 1). A second phase of layoffs and “other operational efficiencies” is scheduled to begin in 2025 and run through 2026, according to UMG’s latest investor presentation.
In reducing its headcount and eliminating some positions, UMG is “redesigning our organization to enhance our capabilities in the areas most critical to our future growth and success,” CFO Boyd Muir said during the earnings call Wednesday (Feb. 28). “These changes will strengthen our leadership team, foster innovation and create significant efficiencies across our business.”
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Also enjoying gains this week were some of the other largest companies in the 20-member Billboard Global Music Index. Spotify rose 3.0% to $263.75, Warner Music Group improved 3.2% to $35.48 and Live Nation increased 1.9% to $97.15. The index itself rose 1.9% to a record 1,715.81, with 11 stocks in positive territory.
Stocks had another strong week in the United States overall. On Friday, the Nasdaq composite surpassed its previous high from 2021 and finished the week up 1.7% to 16,274.94. Chipmaker Nvidia rose another 4.4% to $822.79 this week after gaining 8.5% the previous week. Meta shares were up 3.8% to $502.30 following its announcement on Thursday that it will “deprecate” (i.e. remove) its Facebook News tab in the United States and Australia. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% to 5,137.08 — its first close over 5,100.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 7,682.50. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite index fell 0.9% to 2,642.36, mirroring the declines of K-pop companies HYBE (down 7.6%), SM Entertainment (down 2.5%), JYP Entertainment (down 3.4%) and YG Entertainment (down 3.9%). China’s Shangai Composite Index gained 0.7% to 3,027.02.
Sphere Entertainment Co. was music’s greatest gainer of the week after its share price rose 8.4% to $44.29. The price jumped 6.2% on Thursday after an SEC filing revealed chairman/CEO James Dolan acquired an additional 59,000 shares, ranging from $40.48 to $41.46 per share. Less impactful to the share price was TMZ‘s news that the Eagles are in talks for a fall residency at the $2.3 billion Sphere in Las Vegas. After U2’s residency ends this weekend, Sphere will host Phish for four dates in April and Dead & Company for 24 dates spanning from May 16 to July 13. Sphere shares have gained 30.3% year to date.
French music streamer Deezer was the next-best performer of the week after gaining 5.1% to 2.25 euros ($2.44). The company reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that showed improvements in subscriber court and average revenue per user. Revenue of 130.7 million euros ($141 million) was up 12.1% from the prior-year period. The same day, Deezer also announced the departure of CEO Jeronimo Folgueira. “Deezer is back on a growth trajectory and can now build from a solid foundation,” said chairwoman Iris Knobloch.
Believe shares rose 4.2% to 15.50 euros ($16.82) after the French music company announced that it received interest from a third party; a consortium consisting of founder Denis Ladegaillerie and two major shareholders launched a bid in February to take the company private at 15.00 euros per share. On Friday, Believe revealed it received “a confidential exploratory non-binding approach” from another party that valued the company at “at least” 17.00 euros ($18.45) per share. Believe was careful to note the third party’s approach did not constitute an obligation to make an offer. Still, the appearance of another possible bidder was enough to push Believe’s share price above the consortium’s earlier 15.00 euros-per-share bid.
Shares of Chinese music streamer Cloud Music dropped 0.5% to 90.45 HKD ($11.55). The company announced Thursday that music subscribers grew 8.7% to 205.9 million in the fourth quarter, with subscription growth helping revenue from online music services increase 17.6% to 4.4 billion RMB ($611 million) — although total revenue fell 12.5% to 7.78 billion RMB ($1.09 billion). Gross profit improved 63% to 2.1 billion RMB ($292 million) and net profit improved to 818.5 million RMB ($114 million) from a net loss of 114.6 million RMB ($16 million) in 2022.
iHeartMedia shares fell 2.6% to $2.26 after a seesaw week for the country’s leading radio broadcaster. The stock rose 22.0% to $2.77 on Thursday after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report suggested the fog might be lifting from an advertising slowdown that has hurt broadcast radio revenues. After fourth-quarter revenue fell about 5%, iHeartMedia’s first-quarter revenue is expected to be down 2% to flat. Podcasts were a bright spot, growing 16.6% in the fourth quarter and 13.8% for the full year. Nearly all of Thursday’s gain was erased on Friday, however, when iHeartMedia shares fell 18.4%.
Cumulus Media suffered the largest loss amongst music stocks after falling 20.4% to $3.74. On Tuesday (Feb. 27), the radio broadcaster said its 2023 revenues fell 11.4% to $844.5 million and announced a debt exchange offer that would allow lenders to swap 6.750% notes due 2026 for 8.750% notes due 2029. The company is also offering to exchange term loans under a 2019 credit facility for new term loans.
Cumulus Media led all music stocks this week by gaining 20.2% to $4.70 after the radio broadcaster announced it had employed a “poison pill” to ward off a Singapore-based investor.
In January, Renew Group Private Ltd increased its stake in Cumulus Media from 5.2% to 10.01%. To protect the best interests of all Cumulus shareholders, the board of directors explained, the company chose to enact a “limited-duration shareholder rights plan” that would dilute Renew Group’s equity if it exceeds a 15% stake. In justifying the move, Cumulus said Renew Group has investments in other media companies, including a direct competitor to Cumulus.
Music stocks were broadly up this week as the Billboard Global Music Index improved 1.5% to a new high of 1,684.49. The index is up 9.8% in the young year and has gained 38.4% over the past 52 weeks. Of the index’s 20 stocks, 13 finished the week in positive territory, six lost value and one was unchanged.
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Stock markets around the world reached new highs this week, too. In the United States, the Dow reached a new closing high of 5,088.80 on Friday (Feb. 23) after surpassing 5,100 for the first time earlier in the day. The Nasdaq composite also reached a new high on Friday and finished the week up 1.4% to 15,996.82. The S&P 500 improved 1.7% to a new closing high of 5,088.80. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index reached an all-time high on Thursday (Feb. 22), finally surpassing the previous record reached in 1989 when the Japanese economy was the world’s envy.
Music streamer LiveOne was the second-best performing music stock of the week after its shares jumped 17.9% to $1.71, bringing its year-to-date improvement to 22.1%. With no other music stocks posting double-digit gains, the next best performance came from Chinese music streamer Cloud Music. Its shares rose 4.1% to 90.95 HKD ($11.63) as Chinese stocks finished the week strong after hitting a five-year low in February. In an attempt to bolster the market, Chinese regulators this week established trading restrictions such as limits on short-selling and institutional investors.
Spotify shares gained another 4.0% this week to close at $256.10, bringing its year-to-date gain to an impressive 36.3% (which has added approximately $13.4 billion to its market capitalization). On Wednesday (Feb. 21), the company announced the creation of a new music advisory agency, AUX, that will connect brands with artists. The inaugural campaign matches Coca-Cola with DJ-producer Peggy Gou in what the company called “a long-term partnership that will span live concerts and events, social media content, a branded playlist, and on-platform promotional support.”
Live Nation shares finished the week up 2.2% to $95.32 and rose 2% on Friday following the company’s encouraging fourth-quarter earnings release. Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $110 to $120 in part because Live Nation said it expects double-digit growth in adjusted operating income in 2024 thanks to a busy touring schedule in its high-margin amphitheaters. “This is going to be a great year,” president/CEO Michael Rapino said during Thursday’s earnings call.
Radio broadcaster iHeartMedia was the index’s biggest loser of the week after dropping 12.5% to $2.32. The company will announce its results for the fourth quarter of 2023 on Feb. 29.