Music Stocks
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The consortium acquiring French music company Believe has acquired 85.04% of share capital and 73.27% of voting rights in a tender offer that ends Friday (June 21). Believe owns digital distributor TuneCore, publishing administration service Sentric and such record labels as Naive, Nuclear Blast and Groove Attack. The bidding company is a consortium led by […]
Warner Music Group shares rose 6.6% to $31.47 this week, narrowing the stock’s year-to-date loss to 12.1%. Other gainers in the record label and music publisher space were HYBE, up 1.8% to 200,500 won ($144.95), and Universal Music Group, up 1.4% to 28.63 euros ($30.67).
Streaming companies had the best week, however. Led by LiveOne’s 6.4% gain, music streaming stocks had an average gain of 0.3% — versus an average 0.3% decline for record labels and publishers. Elsewhere, Tencent Music Entertainment gained 5.2% to $14.80 and Spotify added 1.6% to $313.02. The three companies also boast three of the top four year-to-date performances: Live One is up 30.0%, Tencent Music is up 64.3% and Spotify is up 66.6%. The fourth company in that equation is Hipgnosis Songs Fund, which is up 41.4% due to its upcoming acquisition by Blackstone.
Despite overall strength among streaming companies, three of them posted losses. Cloud Music fell 2.4% to 103.00 HKD ($13.19), lowering its year-to-date gain to 14.8%. Anghami lost 2.8% to $1.03, putting the stock’s year-to-date loss at 1.0%. And Deezer stumbled 6.1% to 1.86 euros ($1.99), bringing its year-to-date loss to 12.7%.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 1.1% to 1,820.01, bringing its year-to-date gain to 18.7% and its 52-week improvement to 36.5%. Although the index mustered a small gain, 11 of its 20 stocks lost value compared to seven gainers and two that were unchanged.
While overall music stocks managed only a small increase, the Nasdaq composite rose 3.2% to 17,688.88 and enjoyed its fifth-straight closing record on Friday (June 14). Th eS&P 500 improved 1.6% to 5,431.60. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.3% to 2,758.42. On the losing side, China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.6% to 3,032.63 and the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 fell 1.2% to 8,146.86.
The Billboard Global Music Index is outperforming these major indexes in 2024, however. Through June 14, the Nasdaq is up 17.8% and the S&P 500 is up 13.9%. Indexes in other countries have managed smaller gains. The FTSE is up 5.3%, the KOSPI composite index is up 3.9% and the Shanghai Composite Index is up 1.9%.
LiveOne shares improved 6.4% to $1.82 after the company announced it had surpassed 3.8 million total members, a 25% year-over-year increase, while Tesla memberships rose to 1.8 million, up 32% year-over-year (nearly all new Tesla vehicles sold in the United States come with a paid membership to LiveOne’s Slacker Radio). “Our goal is to forge meaningful alliances with companies that share our passion for innovation, bespoke programming, and delivering exceptional customer value,” Brad Konkol, head of Slacker Radio, said in a statement.
Live Nation shares fell 2.0% to $88.75 as the company continued to lose ground in the wake of the Department of Justice’s lawsuit seeking to break up the company’s concert promotion and ticketing businesses. CFRA Research lowered its Live Nation price target to $98 from $105 on Wednesday (June 12). Although its earnings-per-share estimates were unchanged, CFRA opted for a more conservative valuation multiple to reflect “business risk from the DOJ and live entertainment moving to the slower part of the year starting in October,” analyst Kenneth Leon wrote.
The Billboard Global Music Index’s biggest loss of the week came from Cumulus Media, which fell 18.1% to $1.94. The Atlanta-based radio company’s shares are down 63.5% year to date. Fellow radio company iHeartMedia dropped 3.2% to $1.21 this week, bringing its year-to-date loss to 54.7%.
Spotify’s stock price rose 3.9% this week after the company’s announcement of a U.S. price increase on Monday (June 3) sent the stock on a roller-coaster ride. Shares rose to a new 52-week high of $331.08 on Wednesday — its highest point since Feb. 25, 2021 — before closing at $308.11 on Friday (June 7).
After raising subscription prices in the United States and many other major markets in July 2023, Spotify further hiked rates in the United Kingdom and Australia in May. The additional U.S. price increase, which goes into effect in July, will raise individual rates to $11.99 per month and family plans to $19.99 per month. The higher prices will help Spotify cover the costs of bundling music with limited free streaming of audiobooks. The streamer is giving its customers plenty of options, though. A music-only tier has been introduced in the United Kingdom that costs 10.99 pounds ($13.99) per month, compared to 11.99 pounds ($15.26) per month for the music-and-audiobook option. Two-person Duo plans and student plans also offer discounts to the standard individual plan.
The Billboard Global Music Index rose 0.1% to 1,801.44 as Spotify’s gain helped overshadow losses by 13 of the index’s 20 companies. Other of the index’s largest companies posted modest declines this week: Warner Music Group fell 0.9% to $29.51, Universal Music Group fell 1.2% to 28.23 euros ($30.53) and Live Nation dropped 3.4% to $90.56. The index is 2.5% below its high of 1,847.64, set the week ended May 3, 2024.
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iHeartMedia, the index’s greatest gainer for the second consecutive week, rose 35% to $1.25 a week after gaining 6.4%. In just two weeks, iHeartMedia’s year-to-date loss has improved from 67.4% to 53.2% without any major news releases or regulatory filings. At the company’s annual general meeting on Wednesday (June 5), shareholders reelected CEO Bob Pittman and CFO/COO Rich Bressler to the board of directors and approved an advisory vote on the company’s 2023 executive compensation.
SM Entertainment dropped 8.5% to 83,500 won ($60.51) amidst controversy over an alleged sex scandal involving Johnny and Haechan of the group NCT, which SM Entertainment has denied. Such a large drop isn’t uncommon when a K-pop company’s artists are plastered across the South Korean news. In October, K-pop stocks dropped on news that SM Entertainment artist Exo was leaving for a different agency. In April, HYBE shares fell sharply after news broke that Min Hee-jin, CEO of HYBE imprint ADOR, had attempted to take over management of the subsidiary label.
Elsewhere, CTS Eventim rose 4.3% to 82.80 euros ($89.56). On Thursday (June 6), the German concert promoter and ticketing company finalized a $327 million acquisition of Vivendi’s festival and ticketing businesses. Last year, See Tickets sold 44 million tickets and had revenue of 105 million euros ($114 million). The deal does not include See Tickets France.
SiriusXM shares fell 9.5% to $2.56 this week, bringing its year-to-date loss to 53.2%. The satellite radio company, which also owns streaming platform Pandora, is betting on the success of the new streaming app it launched in December and its $9.99-per-month price. The in-car satellite product, which includes streaming access, costs “about $19” per month, CEO Jennifer Witz said at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference Conference on May 21. The company is attempting to maintain those satellite customers while attracting new streaming customers and reducing its reliance on promotional discounts. “I do think we’ll have opportunities to both capture more demand but also maintain that full price base at those higher price points and implement rate increases over time,” said Witz.
Some U.S. stock indexes reached all-time highs this week. The S&P 500 hit a record 5,375.08 Friday, although it closed at 5,346.99, down 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite reached a new high of 17,235.73 on Thursday and ended Friday at 17,133.12, up 2.4% from the prior week. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 declined 0.4% to 8,245.37. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 3.3% to 2,722.67. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.2% to 3,051.28.
Shares of Spotify rose as high as $317.00, up 6.8% from the previous day’s closing price, after the company announced Monday (June 3) that it will raise subscription prices in the United States. The stock closed on Monday at $310.80, up 4.7%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 65.4%. Price increases have done wonders for Spotify’s […]
Live Nation’s share price has proven to be resilient following the U.S. Department of Justice’s lawsuit and effort to break up the company’s concert promotion and ticketing operations. Eight days into what is likely to be a multi-year journey through the court system, shares of Live Nation dropped 2.3% to $93.74 and have held steady after an initial drop the day of the DOJ’s announcement.
Live Nation shares closed at $101.40 on May 22, the day before the DOJ announced its lawsuit, and dropped 7.8% to $93.48 when the news broke the following day. Since the announcement, however, Live Nation shares are up 0.3%. Still, amidst the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the lawsuit, Live Nation’s year-to-date gain has been pared to just 0.1%, while its 52-week gain has been reduced to 13.2%.
Regardless of the outcome, the mere existence of a protracted legal battle is enough to exert a drag on the stock. In lowering their price target for Live Nation to $116 from $126 this week, J.P. Morgan analysts said in a Wednesday (May 29) note to investors they doubt the DOJ will succeed in breaking up the company and its Ticketmaster ticketing arm, but noted the effect of a “sentiment overhang.” J.P. Morgan maintains its “overweight” rating on Live Nation and analysts “believe that continued execution on [adjusted operating income] growth should drive shares higher, with significant valuation upside should developments in the lawsuit break positive.”
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Music stocks were broadly down this week as the biggest companies in the Billboard Global Music Index lost ground. The index fell 2.3% to 1,799.07 as Spotify fell 3.8% to $296.53, Universal Music Group dropped 0.9% to 28.58 euros ($31.03), Warner Music Group sank 2.2% to $29.78 and HYBE dipped 0.2% to 200,000 won ($144.60). Ten of the 20 companies in the index were losers this week, nine gained ground and one was unchanged.
The index has gained 17.9% year-to-date on the strength of music streaming companies. Tencent Music Entertainment and Spotify lead all stocks with gains of 60.4% and 57.8%, respectively, through the end of May. Elsewhere, Hipgnosis Songs Fund has gained 39.7% due to the company’s pending sale to Blackstone, German concert promoter CTS Eventim is up 26.8% and Chinese music streamer Cloud Music has gained 22.7%.
Radio company iHeartMedia has the distinction of being the top-performing music stock of the week while carrying the worst year-to-date performance. Shares of the radio giant rose 6.4% to $0.926, marking a respite from a month-long free fall during which the stock has traded below $1.00 per share over the last seven trading days. Even after this week’s gain, iHeartMedia finished the month of May down 56% and has lost 65.3% year to date.
Reservoir Media shares gained 2.4% to $8.04 this week following the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release on Thursday (May 30). The company beat guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA and its share price rose as much as 15.5% in the wake of the news. Following the earnings results, B Riley raised its price target for Reservoir to $11.50.
Music streaming company LiveOne fell 6.3% to $1.65 this week after fiscal year results on Thursday showed the company’s revenue grew 19% to $118.4 million. LiveOne shares are up 17.9% year to date.
Overall stocks were broadly down this week but performed better than the Billboard Global Music Index. In the United States, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% to 5,277.51 and the Nasdaq composite fell 1.1% to 16,735.02. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.5% to 8,275.38. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index sank 1.9% to 2,636.52. China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined just 0.1% to 3,086.81.
Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) stock rose 15.7% to $15.43 after the release of its first-quarter earnings on Monday (May 13), which showed net profit rising 28% to $212 million as music subscription revenue surpassed $500 million and the company’s subscribers rose by 7 million to 113 million. Online music revenue climbed 43% to $693 million, helping offset a nearly 50% decrease in social entertainment revenues to $244 million.
Numerous analysts upped their price targets for TME this week following the company’s earnings release. Jefferies raised TME to $15.40 from $12.00. Mizuho raised its price target to $15.00 from $13.00. HSBC also raised TME to $15.00 from $13.00.
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Another Chinese music streaming company, Cloud Music, jumped 11.7% to 105.00 HKD this week after it announced a licensing deal with Kakao Entertainment for distribution in China. Kakao has over 50 “star” artists and 70,000 tracks, according to a press release announcing the pact. Cloud Music has not announced a date for its first-quarter earnings release.
Shares of TME have risen 97.6% over the last 52 weeks and gained 71.3% in 2024. The company (which trades on the NYSE and Hong Kong Stock Exchange) and Cloud Music (which trades on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) are part of an upswing in Chinese stocks in 2024. After falling in January, the Shanghai Composite Index is up 15.5% since Feb. 2 — far better than the gains of the FTSE 100 (10.6%), S&P 500 (7.0%) and Nasdaq composite (6.8%) over that period.
TME has come a long way since being targeted by government regulators in 2021 for anticompetitive behavior. Its shares traded below $5 for much of 2022 and dropped as low as $3.14 in October of that year.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 3.3% to a record 1,847.64, topping the previous high mark of 1,841.66 for the week ended April 5. While there were an equal number of winners and losers, the three top performers had double-digit gains — Cumulus Media was up 18% — while the worst-performing stock, Sphere Entertainment Co., fell 8.1%. Most of the index’s most valuable companies posted gains this week: Spotify increased 2.8% to $302.84, Universal Music Group rose 2.6% to 28.74 euros ($31.31) and Warner Music Group gained 1.3% to $32.04.
Music stocks bested numerous indexes. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 2.1% to 16,685.97 and the S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 5,303.27. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 declined 0.2% to 8,420.26. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index dropped 0.1% to 2,724.62.
B. Riley resumed coverage of Reservoir Media on Thursday (May 16) with a “buy” rating and an $11 price target. Reservoir shares rose 0.2% to $8.40 this week. The company will release first-quarter earnings on May 30.
Elsewhere, iHeartMedia dropped 6.2% to $1.21 this week. Guggenheim lowered its price target to $3 from $5 following the radio company’s earnings release on May 9, which prompted the stock to fall 36% last week. While Guggenheim maintained its “buy” rating, it dropped its price target to account for “headwinds at the core broadcast business,” analysts wrote in a May 15 note to investors.
Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 8.1% to $36.07, bringing its year-to-date gain to 6.1%. The company announced Monday that it bought out the remaining shares of Holoplot GmbH, the German company that provided the 3D audio technology for the Sphere in Las Vegas.
Outside of the Billboard Global Music Index, JYP Entertainment fell 13.4% to 60,000 won ($44.30) following the company’s release of first-quarter earnings after the markets closed on May 10. Revenue increased 15.6% to 136.5 billion won ($100.8 million) but operating profit declined 20% to 33.6 billion won ($24.8 million) and net profit fell 26.3% to 31.4 billion won ($23.2 million). Operating profit and net profit declined due to increases in artist fees, labor costs and commissions at JYP Three Sixty, the company’s businesses that produce merchandise and license artists’ intellectual property.
Another non-index stock, Sony Corp., rose 11.1% to $83.74 following its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release Tuesday (May 14). Driven by subscription streaming growth and aided by foreign exchange, Sony Music’s yen-denominated revenues jumped 23.5% to $2.85 billion in the quarter and the music division was the parent company’s largest contributor of operating income.
Live Nation was the top-performing music stock and one of four stocks in positive territory this week. The concert promoter gained 2.5% to $97.02 while three other concert promotion stocks — Sphere Entertainment Co., Madison Square Garden Entertainment and CTS Eventim — each lost ground.
The Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.9% to 1,788.83 as 16 of its 20 stocks finished the week in negative territory. Music streaming companies Deezer and Anghami were two of the week’s other big winners with gains of 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively. Still, the index has risen 16.6% year to date and 12 of the 20 stocks have posted gains in 2024.
Another notable gainer this week was Believe, which closed Friday at 15.04 euros ($16.21), up 0.3% from the prior week. A closing price of 15.04 euros is above the 15.00 euros offer price by consortium of investors that aims to take Believe private. Some minority shareholders may remain, however, because the consortium, which has lined up 71.92% of share equity, will not implement a squeeze-out and force shareholders representing the remaining 28.08% of share capital to sell.
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iHeartMedia shares declined 42.7% to $1.30, leaving the radio broadcaster with a market capitalization of just $194 million. Its shares fell 36.1% on Thursday following its first-quarter earnings release and dropped another 5.8% on Friday.
As streaming has surged in popularity and economic importance, radio companies have struggled to reinvent themselves. In 2021, iHeartMedia shares surpassed $28 after the advertising market recovered from a COVID-19 pandemic-related collapse. But in the subsequent three years, its shares have lost nearly all their value as sluggish radio advertising has overshadowed iHeartMedia’s budding podcast business.
The index didn’t fall further than 1.9% because many of its most valuable companies suffered only minor losses this week. Spotify, the largest contributor to the float-adjusted index, dropped only 0.5% while HYBE, one of the index’s more valuable components, fell just 1.5%.
Those small losses, and Live Nation’s 2.5% gain, helped offset larger losses by some other valuable components of the index. Universal Music Group fell 3.1% to 28.01 euros ($30.22) and Warner Music Group dropped 7.3% to $31.64 following its fiscal second quarter earnings release on Thursday. Evercore and Morgan Stanley both dropped their price targets by $2 on WMG’s stock on Friday. Guggenheim maintain its WMG price target.
While music stocks had a rough week, stocks were broadly up around the world. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 1.9% to 5,222.68 and the Nasdaq composite improved 1.1% to 16,340.87. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 2.7% to 8,433.76. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.9% to 2,727.63. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6% to 3,154.55.
Shares of Live Nation jumped 7.2% to $94.66 on Friday following the company’s earnings report on Thursday (May 2), which showed the concert promotion and ticketing giant had a record first quarter. Revenue of $3.8 billion was up 21% year over year, and the company said it expects strong results in 2024 from its arena and high-margin amphitheater businesses.
Investors may have been encouraged by Live Nation’s insistence during Thursday’s earnings call that the U.S. Department of Justice does not pose a mortal threat to the company. Commenting about an April 16 Wall Street Journal article about a pending DOJ lawsuit, president and CFO Joe Berchtold dismissed the notion that regulators could force Live Nation to sever its concert promotion and ticketing businesses. “Very little of the conduct the DOJ has raised with us relates to the combination of ticketing and promotion resulting from the merger,” he said. “And most of what does was anticipated and addressed by the consent decree allowing the merger to go forward.
“Based on the issues we know about,” Berchtold added, “we don’t believe a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster would be a legally permissible remedy.”
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Live Nation hasn’t fully recovered since news of a pending DOJ lawsuit broke. Through Wednesday (May 1), Live Nation shares had lost 11.5% since the WSJ article. Friday’s 7.2% gain helped Live Nation recover nearly half of that loss.
Numerous analysts see upside in Live Nation’s stock. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of Live Nation with a $120 price target and a “buy” rating. Following Thursday’s earnings release, Jefferies upped its price target to $115 from $114, Wolf Research raised its price target to $131 from $128, and Benchmark increased its price target to $132 from $130. CFRA downgraded Live Nation to “hold” from “strong buy,” however, and lowered its price target to $105 from $120.
Live Nation was one of the best-performing music stocks in a week the vast majority of them posted gains. Seventeen of the index’s 20 stocks gained ground this week, helping the Billboard Global Music Index improve 3.8% to 1,824.29 and nearly match the all-time high of 1,841.66 reached four weeks ago. Two stocks — Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami and New York-based label and publisher Reservoir Media — posted losses and one stock, French music company Believe, was unchanged.
Universal Music Group shares climbed 4.9% to 28.92 euros ($31.16) following its first-quarter earnings release on Thursday and its announcement of a renewed licensing deal with TikTok. UMG’s earnings rose 6% (8% at constant currency) to 2.59 billion euros ($2.8 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) improved 13.2% to 591 million euros ($640 million).
K-pop company SM Entertainment was the week’s best performer after gaining 5.9% to 85,800 won ($63.27). Warner Music Group rose 5.4% to $34.14. iHeartMedia climbed 5.1% to $2.25. Cumulus Media gained 2.6% — and rose 4.2% on Friday — after its first-quarter earnings showed its 2.7% decline in revenue, to $200 million, was in line with previous guidance.
SiriusXM shares improved 3.3% to $3.12 this week despite falling 7.2% on Monday after its first-quarter earnings report showed the company’s self-pay subscribers dropped by 1.4%. Many analysts cut their price targets in the wake of the earnings. Barrington dropped SiriusXM to $4.75 from $5.75 and maintained its “outperform” rating. Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $3.75 from $5 and kept its “hold” rating. Goldman Sachs dropped its price target to $3.25 from $3.50 and upgraded its rating to “neutral” from “sell.”
HYBE was rocked by controversy this week after an audit of one of its subsidiary labels, ADOR, allegedly revealed that the label’s CEO, Min Hee-jin, “deliberately led the plan to take over management control of the subsidiary,” according to a statement sent by the company on Thursday (April 25).
Shares of HYBE fell 7.8% on Monday (April 22) and ended the week down 12.6% to 201,500 won ($146.22). HYBE later reported Min, who owns an 18% stake in ADOR, to the police for “breach of trust and other allegations” and asked her to step down, it said in the April 25 statement. The dispute added to HYBE’s losses at a time when most music stocks are faring well. HYBE shares have fallen 13.7% year to date and 25.4% over the last year.
HYBE was the biggest loser in a week most music companies’ stocks were up. In fact, five music companies’ stocks posted double-digit gains this week and only 7 of the 20 stocks in the Billboard Global Music Index were losers. The index gained 3.2% to 1,756.98, breaking a two-week losing streak and bringing its year-to-date increase to 14.5%.
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The week’s greatest gainer was streaming company LiveOne, which increased 14.5% to $1.90 after it provided two updates to upcoming earnings releases. On Monday, the company announced that it expects fiscal 2024 revenue of $118.5 million, up 19% from $99.5 million the previous year, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $14.4 million — about 32% above $10.9 million of EBITDA in the prior year. On Wednesday (April 24), LiveOne announced that PodcastOne expects revenue of $11.7 million in the fiscal fourth quarter 2024, up 32% year over year. LiveOne spun off PodcastOne in 2023 and retained an 81% stake.
Two of the weeks’ best-performing stocks also reached their highest levels in years. Reservoir Media improved 13.8% to $9.10, its highest closing price since the stock closed at $9.20 on May 4, 2022. Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment gained 13.5% to $12.88, its best closing price since it closed at $13.02 on July 13, 2021.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (HSF) gained 12.9% to 1.038 pounds ($1.30) as Concord and Blackstone vie for control of the company’s share equity and 65,000-song portfolio. Notably, Friday’s closing price was 5 cents, or 4%, above Concord’s high bid of $1.25 per share, suggesting that some investors expect the bidding process to continue. As the HSF board weighs its options amidst a strategic review and building strife with its investment advisor, Hipgnosis Song Management, a sale seems inevitable. “I think investors have been through such a roller coaster most of them just want their money back,” Round Hill Music CEO Josh Gruss told Billboard this week.
Spotify’s stock closed Friday up 5.0% to $289.59 after an up-and-down week. Shares rose 11.5% on Tuesday — and posted an intraday gain of 19.2% — following the release of the company’s first-quarter earnings report but gave back nearly all the gains over the next two days by falling 6.8% and 2.3% on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Tuesday’s (April 23) intraday high of $319.30 was Spotify’s highest share price in over three years. The last time Spotify traded above $319.30 was Mar. 8, 2021, when shares reached $323.04. The stock dropped below $100, to $96.67, on Apr. 27, 2022, and fell as far as $69.29 on Nov. 4, 2022. Since that low point a year and a half ago, as Spotify has cut its workforce and focused on improving margins, its share price has risen 218%.
Indexes around the world posted gains this week. In the United States, the Nasdaq was up 4.2% to 15,927.90 and the S&P 500 improved 2.7% to 5,099.96. Both indexes were helped by Alphabet, which rose 10% to $173.69 on Friday after releasing first-quarter earnings and announcing a $70 billion buyback program. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 3.1% to 8,139.83. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.5% to 2,656.33. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to 3,088.64.
Spotify’s stock jumped as much as 17.3% on Tuesday (April 23) following the company’s first-quarter earnings report showed the company is starting to deliver better profits and margins. The share price closed at $303.49, up 11.5%, after reaching a new 52-week high of $319.30 earlier in the day.
Investors’ expectations for future quarters often drive large swings in stock prices when a company delivers results for past quarters. For Spotify, cost-cutting and newfound financial discipline are expected to produce tangible results next quarter. The company’s guidance for second quarter operating income of 250 million euros ($268 million) was well ahead of Guggenheim analysts’ estimate of 179 million euros ($192 million) and JP Morgan’s estimate of 199 million euros ($213 million), and was a vast improvement from the 247 million euro ($264 million) operating loss in the second quarter of 2023. Gross margin guidance of 28.1% far exceeded Guggenheim’s estimate of 26.6% and JP Morgan’s estimate of 26.9% and would be nearly four percentage points above the prior year period’s 24.3% gross margin.
First-quarter results often exceeded Spotify’s guidance from three months ago. Revenue of 3.63 billion euros ($3.9 billion) slightly topped the high end of guidance of 3.6 billion euros. Gross margin of 27.6% was more than a percentage point above guidance of 26.4%, although operating income of 168 million euros ($180 million) was under guidance of 180 million euros ($192 million).
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Gross margin was 243 basis points — 2.43 percentage points — better than the 25.2% gross margin in the prior year period. Spotify said the improvement came from improved music and podcast profitability that was partially offset by costs from its growing audiobooks business. Operating income was impacted by 82 million euros ($89 million) in social charges and was helped by lower personnel costs and marketing spending.
“We consider this a real trend” rather than the result of one-off events, said interim CFO Ben Kung during Tuesday’s earnings call when asked by an analyst what to expect from margin growth for the remainder of 2024.
Although Spotify didn’t surpass forecasts for subscriber growth, it met expectations and generated more revenue, on average, from each paid customer. Average revenue per user improved 5% to 4.55 euros ($4.94) thanks to price increases in July 2023. Total monthly active users of 615 million was slightly below Spotify’s guidance of 618 million, but the 239 million subscribers matched the company’s forecasts.
“It is really a new Spotify, and we are being relentless resourceful in all of our costs,” CEO Daniel Ek said during Tuesday’s earnings call. Second-quarter margins were helped by decreases in streaming delivery costs and other costs of revenue, Ek explained. The podcast segment, which was a drag on profitability in 2023, is expected to be profitable in 2024, he added.
The longtime knock against Spotify was it had a great product but wasn’t a great business. The economic demands of music streaming, which require Spotify to pay music rights holders most of its revenue, left little for R&D, marketing, salaries, and general and administrative expenses. Although the company has amassed more than 600 million monthly users — 239 million of them paid subscribers — it has been perpetually unprofitable.
Spotify’s fortunes began to change in 2023 after the company knuckled down, laid off 17% of its global workforce in December and jettisoned many high-priced, celebrity podcast deals — namely parting ways with Price Harry and Meghan Markle’s Archewell Studio and striking a non-exclusive deal with the previously exclusive-to-Spotify The Joe Rogan Experience.