market share
As the third quarter of 2024 comes to a close, a familiar label is atop the current market share standings: Republic, which for the second straight quarter maintains a market share north of 15%, a remarkable achievement.
But while the story of Republic’s second quarter was the dominance of Taylor Swift — whose Tortured Poets Department remains far and away the biggest album of the year so far, more than doubling the second-placed title and still going strong — the story of its third quarter is the huge surge of Island Records, which is included under Republic’s market share alongside Mercury Records, Big Loud Records, Cash Money and indie distributor Imperial.
Buoyed by the breakout successes of Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan, Island posted a 3.81% current share (defined as released within the past 18 months) for the three months between June 27 and Sept. 26. If Island were broken out on its own, that would have been good for seventh among all labels for that period, which boosted its nine-month current market share to 2.15% — about 3.5 times higher than its current market share was through the first nine months of 2023, while that 3.81% mark for the third quarter was 6.5 times higher than for the corresponding three-month period in 2023. (With Carpenter’s Short N Sweet and Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess at Nos. 1 and 2 on the Billboard 200 in this first week of the fourth quarter, that momentum is likely to continue.)
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That helped Republic post a 15.21% current market share through the first nine months of the year, itself a huge jump from its industry-leading 12.28% through three quarters of last year. But it wasn’t just Island: Republic itself is still floating on its TTPD high, while Post Malone’s F1-Trillion helped Big Loud and Mercury contribute to Republic’s share, too. And while Republic has receded slightly from the 15.72% it posted at midyear — when it outstripped the entire Warner Music Group — any label putting up a number higher than 15% is enjoying a massive year.
On the other coast, Universal Music Group’s other juggernaut, Interscope Geffen A&M, also saw a huge surge in the third quarter, which boosted its nine-month current share into double digits, as it posted a 10.13% share — up from 9.51% at the midyear mark and the 8.55% it held through the same period last year. The enduring success of Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” — which will get a Super Bowl-sized bump early next year, too — and Billie Eilish’s still-hot Hit Me Hard And Soft album helped Interscope become the only other label to reach higher than 10%. (Interscope’s share also includes Verve Label Group.)
The success of both Republic and Interscope — the two labels around which UMG reorganized earlier this year — helped parent company Universal improve more than two percentage points in current share over the same period last year, jumping from 34.61% through nine months in 2023 to 36.65% this year. That gain has come at the expense of the other two majors, which slipped a bit year over year: Sony Music Group dipped from 27.50% through the first nine months of 2023 to 25.89% through the first three quarters of 2024; while Warner Music Group dropped from 17.46% last year to 16.25% this year for the same period, though the latter recovered enough from its 15.68% mark at midyear to climb back above Republic Records.
Year over year, the indie sector by distribution ownership also grew, up to a 21.21% current share through the first nine month of this year, as opposed to 20.43% during the same period last year, a significant uptick; the biggest song of the year so far, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” was released by indie EMPIRE. (EMPIRE does not report its market share to Luminate, so its individual share cannot be broken out.) By label ownership, the indie sector remains the biggest segment of the business, racking up a 37.09% current share of the market, though that has come down somewhat from the 39.49% it had through the same period in 2023.
Beyond Republic and Interscope, there is more good news from Warner Records (which includes catalog label Rhino and parts of Warner Nashville), as it stays on the hot streak it has been on for the entirety of 2024. Its 6.54% nine-month mark keeps it in third place once again, a full percentage point above fourth-placed Atlantic (which includes 300 Elektra Entertainment), which posted a 5.51% current mark, better than its first two quarters but still down significantly from its 7.39% mark at the three-quarter period of 2023. (Remarkably, despite coming out of the gate so hot this year, Warner Records hasn’t cooled down: its 6.98% third quarter was its best three-month period of the year.)
In fifth and sixth are a pair of Sony Music labels that move up a spot in the rankings year over year, though both dropped in market share over the same period last year: Columbia Records, which includes some RED labels in its share, posted a 4.41% current mark, a slight uptick from its midyear 4.35% but down from last year’s 4.93% nine-month mark, when it was sixth; and RCA, at 4.30%, a dip from the 4.64% it had nine months into 2023, though it is up from seventh to sixth for this quarter. Capitol Music Group, in seventh place so far this year, posted a 4.04% current share; through nine months of 2023, it was in fourth place, at 6.01%.
Epic Records, with several high-flying hip-hop releases this year from Future, boosts its share from 2.39% three quarters through 2023 to 2.79% through the first three quarters of this year, rising to eighth place; while Sony Nashville (2.10%, down from 2.50%) and Sony Music Latin (2.05%, up from 1.96%), round out the top 10 labels by current share.
Overall market share — which combines all a label’s releases in the marketplace, rather than just those of the past 18 months — rearranges the board slightly, though Republic (10.49%) and Interscope (9.98%) still lead the way, both with slightly improved totals from last year’s period. Atlantic’s vast catalog means that it leapfrogs Warner Records into third, with a 7.66% overall share (down from 8.31% last year), while Warner’s 6.86% — up from 6.63% in 2023 — sees it move from fifth place last year into fourth this year. Capitol and Columbia come in fifth and sixth, though in a virtual tie at 5.87%; Capitol edged out Columbia by three thousandths of a percentage point, essentially a rounding error. RCA (5.03%), Epic (2.75%), Sony Nashville (2.07%) and Universal Music Nashville (1.84%) round out the top 10.
Among the label groups, overall market share remained largely static year over year: UMG and Sony each inched up, to 38.47% and 27.25% respectively year over year, while Warner dipped slightly to 18.42% and the indies, at 15.85%, remained flat. The catalog side is largely the same story: UMG dipped two tenths of a percent year over year, while Sony gained half a point and WMG and the indies were down slightly. Among the individual labels, Interscope took the top catalog slot, jumping above Republic to take a 9.93% share of the market, with Republic’s 8.87% edging out Atlantic’s 8.39%.
Halfway through 2024, it’s once again Taylor Swift’s world, and we’re all just living in it. At the midway point of the year, her Tortured Poets Department album is the biggest release of 2024 so far by a huge margin, having spent nine of the 13 weeks of the second quarter atop the Billboard 200. That helped her label, Republic Records, best the entire Warner Music Group in current market share for the year through June 27, contributing to Republic’s 15.72% mark — by far the best among individual labels.
However, Swift is far from the only factor. Republic’s market share also includes Mercury Records, Big Loud Records and Island Records (as well as indie distributor Imperial and Cash Money), and each of those labels is also on fire in the first half: Mercury’s Post Malone has collaborated with Swift, Beyoncé, Blake Shelton and Big Loud’s Morgan Wallen on big singles (the latter of which, “I Had Some Help,” spent six weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100), while Island’s Sabrina Carpenter has dominated the singles charts of late and the same label’s Chappell Roan has emerged as one of the artist stories of the year. Each of the three labels, if broken out on their own, would have made the top 15 of the midyear current market share chart, while Island in particular logged a midyear mark (1.29%) that was more than double its share at the same point last year, and represents its highest midpoint stake since 2018.
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That surge from Republic, which is up more than 3% from the 12.42% current share it posted midway through 2023, helped boost the Universal Music Group’s industry-leading current market share up to 36.37% at the halfway mark, up from the 34.48% it had the same period last year. In turn, Sony Music Entertainment’s current share came in at 26.07%, down from 27.54% halfway through 2023; while the Warner Music Group’s 15.68% dipped from the 17.26% it enjoyed midway through last year. The indie sector, by distribution ownership, grew more than a percentage point to 21.88%, up from 20.72%. By label ownership, the indie community remained the biggest sector of the business, with a 39.12% current share and a 37.35% overall share, both of which are slightly down year over year but relatively static.
Among individual labels, beyond Republic, Interscope Geffen A&M (whose market share also includes Verve Label Group) also had a strong quarter. The label came in at 9.51% in current share, also up a large margin from the 8.08% it posted halfway through 2023, with Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard And Soft leading the way. Taking into account the realignment of UMG’s label structure under the Interscope Capitol Labels Group on the West Coast, within which Capitol now reports up to ICLG chief John Janick, and Republic Recording Company on the East Coast, which includes Def Jam among the additional labels that report in to Monte Lipman, ICLG’s current market share would come in at 13.54% halfway through the year, with Republic Recording Company at 16.36%.
Outside those two labels, Warner Records — which includes Warner Latin, catalog label Rhino and some share from Warner Nashville — has continued its hot streak from the first quarter, as singles by Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things”), Teddy Swims (“Lose Control”) and Zach Bryan (last year’s “I Remember Everything” with Kacey Musgraves) remain among the biggest songs of 2024. Notably, Warner’s 6.30% current share — which keeps it in third place among labels — comes even before the impact of Bryan’s latest album, The Great American Bar Scene, given that it was released after the half-year tracking period. That’s easily Warner’s best midyear mark in years and an improvement over 2023’s 5.62%, when it ranked fifth.
Coming in fourth is Atlantic, at a 5.24% current share, which is both down significantly from the 7.34% it posted halfway through 2023 and up slightly from the 5.14% current share it had in the first quarter, as Jack Harlow’s former No. 1 “Lovin On Me” remains among the top songs of the year. (Atlantic’s share includes the 300 Elektra Music Group.) Fifth place, with a 4.59% current share, belongs to RCA Records, representing a dip in share from last year’s 4.98% midyear mark but a rise in position, as it came in seventh at this point last year.
In sixth, Columbia’s current share has improved, up to 4.35% from 3.71% in Q1, as Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Hozier’s No. 1 single “Too Sweet” factors in, though it’s still down from the 5.16% it held midway through last year. (Columbia’s share includes some labels from indie distributor RED.) Capitol Music Group, meanwhile — which includes Virgin Music, Motown/Quality Control, Capitol Christian, Blue Note and Astralwerks in its share — has dropped into seventh place with a 4.03% current share, down from its 6.00% 2023 mark and the 4.71% it posted in the first quarter of 2024.
A trio of Sony labels round out the top 10, though in a different order than they did in the same period of 2023. In eighth, Epic Records has capitalized on a slew of big hip-hop albums in the first half of the year from 21 Savage, Future and Metro Boomin to boost its current share to 2.78%, up significantly from the 1.82% share it held last year when it sat in 10th. Also pushing higher is Sony Latin, which came in ninth at 2.17%, up from 1.99% last year. It comes in ahead of Sony Nashville, which dropped from a 2.55% share halfway through 2023 to a 1.96% share at the midpoint of 2024.
Another big climber at the year’s midway point is Alamo, which is up to 1.78% so far this year, good for 11th and a jump from the 0.96% current share it held this time last year. (Alamo also last year launched indie distributor Santa Anna, which inked a deal with Drake’s OVO Sound label in January.) Universal’s Nashville (1.35%) and Latin (1.12%) follow in 12th and 13th, respectively, while BMG (0.93%) and Concord (0.75%) — the latter of which scored a big hit with the Pulse Music-released “Million Dollar Baby” by Tommy Richman — round out the top 15 among current market share.
In overall market share — which combines current releases (within the past 18 months) with catalog — UMG increased its lead at the top, to 38.52% over last year’s 37.98%, while Sony (27.21%) and WMG (18.22%) both dipped slightly, and the indie community by distribution ownership inched upward, to 16.05% from last year’s 15.93%.
Among the individual labels, the race is much tighter at the top in overall share, with Republic’s 10.61% beating out Interscope’s 9.88%, though both saw their share increase year over year. (The score for the UMG umbrella groups in terms of overall share: ICLG at 15.78% and Republic Recording Company at 12.45%.) Below them, Atlantic jumps to third with a 7.61% mark, leapfrogging Warner Records’ 6.74%, while the deep catalogs of Capitol (in fifth) and Columbia (in sixth) allowed their shares rise to a virtual tie at 5.90%, with Capitol edging out Columbia by five ten-thousandths of a point. RCA (5.05%), Epic (2.75%), Sony Nashville (2.02%) and UMG Nashville (1.86%) round out the top 10.
By catalog share, both UMG (39.25%) and Sony (27.60%) grew year over year, while Warner (19.07%) and the indies (14.08% by distribution ownership) both dipped slightly. Among the individual labels, Interscope takes the top slot, coming in at 10.00% even, ahead of Republic’s 8.88%, with both up slightly over their prior-year marks. Republic barely rises above Atlantic, which drops to No. 3 with an 8.41% share, while Warner Records (6.88%), Capitol Music Group (6.53%) and Columbia Records (6.42%) are closely bunched together behind, with Warner jumping past Capitol year over year. RCA comes in a solid seventh with a 5.21% share, while Epic (2.75%), Def Jam Recordings (2.25%) and Sony Nashville (2.04%) complete the top 10.
What a difference a year — or a couple of months with a massive label shakeup — can make.
The reorganization of the Universal Music Group that occurred in February — which loosely divided the music giant’s labels under two umbrellas, Republic Corps and the Interscope Capitol Labels Group (ICLG) — has created a new hegemony that effectively splits its industry-leading market share in half, meaning that Republic Corps’ Monte Lipman and ICLG’s John Janick sit atop label empires that, in a given week, can rival the Warner Music Group as a whole in terms of market share. (For Republic, given its partnership with Big Loud for Morgan Wallen and the eye-popping success of Taylor Swift and others, that was already the case at times last year.) In the first quarter of 2024, for example, both Republic Corps (13.69%) and ICLG (13.81%) put up current market share figures that are more than double the next-highest label from any other company.
Yet for comparison’s sake — and to get a sense of the trends in the market — we’ll set that reorganization aside for now, particularly as it happened in the midst of a quarter and thus doesn’t reflect the totality of the first three months of 2024. And even under the old alignment, Republic (which, even prior to the shift, encompassed Island, Big Loud, Mercury and Imperial) and Interscope (which similarly already included Geffen and Verve Label Group) still lead the pack for releases through the end of March.
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Republic, on the strength of enduring hit albums by Wallen, Swift, Drake and Noah Kahan, as well as the huge success of the new Ariana Grande album eternal sunshine, posted a 12.84% current market share (defined as albums released within the past 18 months), only marginally coming down to earth from the eye-popping 13.47% full-year current share it posted in 2023, and a slight uptick over the 12.45% first quarter it enjoyed last year. Meanwhile, Interscope’s 9.10% current share is a big jump from the 7.75% it posted in the first quarter of 2023, and up from the full-year 8.80% it posted last year, with the enduring success of Olivia Rodrigo and breakout singles from Xavi (“La Diabla” and “La Victima”), among others, helping boost its position.
But perhaps the biggest story of the first quarter of 2024 has been the smash success of Warner Records, which surged from seventh place in Q1 2023 (5.23% current share) all the way to third in Q1 2024 (6.41%), reflecting the remarkable success the label has had on the Hot 100 so far this year. Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” Teddy Swims’ Hot 100 No. 1 “Lose Control” and Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything” feat. Kacey Musgraves are all among the top five songs of the year so far, while Bryan’s 2023 self-titled album and his 2022 album American Heartbreak are both among the top 20 albums of the first quarter. Warner — whose market share includes catalog label Rhino as well as Warner Latin and parts of Warner Nashville — continued to build on its 2023 trajectory, when it finished with a full-year current share of 5.96%.
That surge pushed Atlantic Records down into fourth place, at 5.14% current share, a drop of more than 2% from the 7.22% it maintained in Q1 2023. Atlantic — which includes 300 Elektra Entertainment in its market share — did have a big hit from Jack Harlow, whose single “Lovin’ On Me” topped the Hot 100 for five weeks in the first few months of the year. Atlantic’s hold on fourth, however, was only 0.01% above RCA Records, which came in at 5.13%, as the enduring strength of singles by SZA, Doja Cat and Tate McRae, combined with a viral smash from Flo Milli (“Cruel Summer”), kept the label in fifth place, despite dropping from 5.76% in Q1 2023, when the SZA album had a lock on the top of the Billboard 200.
Sticking in sixth place is Capitol Music Group — whose market share still contains indie distributor Virgin, as well as Quality Control/Motown, Capitol Christian, Astralwerks and Blue Note — which posted a 4.71% current share, down from 5.56% in the first three months of 2023. Dropping to seventh is Columbia, which includes some labels from indie distributor RED in its market share, at 3.71%, down from 5.85% a year ago. Though, in this particular ranking, Columbia is an unfortunate casualty of the end-of-March cutoff date; Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter debuted the week after with the biggest first week of the year, which will be reflected in the second quarter. In eighth, Epic Records saw a big boost, posting a 2.99% share (up from 2.06% last year), though that also seems like it will be trending higher in Q2, with the twin Future/Metro Boomin albums still growing. Sony Latin (2.38%, up from 1.92%) and Sony Nashville (2.08%, down from 2.30%) round out the top 10 in current market share.
Among the label groups, UMG’s dominance continued, with its 33.90% current share ticking up slightly from 33.59% in the first quarter of 2023, while Sony Music Group’s 26.91% came in lower than last year’s 28.46% — again, likely a quirk of the calendar. Still, despite Warner Records’ individual surge, the Warner Music Group’s overall current share slipped to 15.98%, down from 16.81% in Q1 last year. (WMG’s market share still contains 1.09% from BMG, despite the latter announcing that it would be ending its distribution arrangement with Warner; projects that were in the works prior to the agreement ending are still going through the Warner system, a BMG spokesperson says.) The big beneficiary in current market share is the independent sector, which grew its mark from 21.15% in Q1 last year to 23.21% this year by distribution ownership, a significant increase. Both the independent release of the chart-topping Ye and Ty Dolla $ign album Vultures 1 and the huge success of Mitski’s “My Love Mine All Mine” contributed to the boost.
The numbers are more static when looking at overall market share, which includes back catalog, though the trends are still there: Universal (38.23%, up from 37.65%) and the indies (16.28%, up from 16.18%) both were up over Q1 2023, while Sony (27.23%, down from 27.62%) and WMG (18.26%, down from 18.55%) dipped. By label ownership, the independent sector remains larger than any individual major, accounting for 36.09% in overall market share, albeit down from the 37.38% it had in Q1 2023.
Among the individual labels, Republic’s huge current numbers pushed its overall market share above Interscope’s for first place, at 9.94%, up from 9.16% last year, while Interscope’s second-place showing at 9.85% still represented growth from its leading 9.44% last year. Atlantic’s strong catalog numbers meant that in overall share it remained in third place, at 7.65%, besting Warner Records, which jumped into fourth at 6.72%. Interscope, meanwhile, retained its top spot in catalog market share, at 10.09%, with Republic (9.03%) and Atlantic (8.43%) behind.
At the midyear point of 2023, Republic Records had put up a 12.46% current market share — defined as albums released in the past 18 months — which was a remarkable figure, and more than 4.5% higher than the second-largest label. Now, as 2023 has come to a close, Republic finished the year even higher, reaching an eye-popping 13.47% current market share for the year. That’s the highest full-year mark since at least 2015, when streaming began to lift the industry out of its post-CD doldrums, and more than 3% higher than its current share in 2022, which was a then-industry-leading 10.38%.
Republic’s high-water mark stems from a combination of both enduring releases dating back to the end of 2022 and massive albums from two of the biggest stars on the planet this year: Taylor Swift and Morgan Wallen. For full-year 2023, Swift and Wallen (signed through Republic’s deal with Big Loud, which on its own commanded a 2.33% current share) combined for seven of the top 10 albums in U.S. consumption units, according to Luminate, including four of the top five. With Metro Boomin’s Heroes & Villains ranking at No. 10, Republic had an astonishing eight of the 10 biggest albums in the United States in 2023. And Republic’s fourth quarter was even more dominant: In the final three months of the year, the label’s current market share ballooned to 16.79%, buoyed by new albums from Drake, Nicki Minaj and Stray Kids. That’s higher than the current share of the entire Warner Music Group across that three-month period, which stood at 15.50%.
Following Republic — which includes Island, Big Loud, Mercury Records, Cash Money and indie distributor Imperial in its market share — Interscope Geffen A&M (IGA) came in second in current share, at 8.80%, up from the 8.72% it tallied in 2022. The label — which also encompasses Verve Label Group — scored another big success with Olivia Rodrigo’s sophomore album GUTS. It also saw critical acclaim for Verve’s Jon Batiste, once again a Grammy darling, and continued its extremely strong recent track record of breaking new artists, with Gracie Abrams up for best new artist at this year’s Grammys — a category the label has won in three of the past four years.
The success of Republic and IGA helped parent company Universal Music Group roar back to a 35.84% current market share for 2023, jumping two points year over year from 2022’s 33.57%. In second, Sony Music Entertainment also grew year over year, up to 27.08% from 2022’s 26.99%, while Warner Music Group dipped to 16.95%, down from last year’s 18.30%. The indies, by distribution ownership, accounted for 20.13% current market share, down from 21.14% in 2022.
In third and fourth place in current share among frontline labels are a pair of Warner Music Group labels, Atlantic Records (6.83%, down from 9.15% in 2022) and Warner Records (5.96%, up from 4.86% in 2022). Atlantic (encompassing 300 Elektra Entertainment), which dipped from second to third place year over year, scored a big win with the Barbie soundtrack as well as No. 1s from Lil Uzi Vert and Jack Harlow, despite a two-plus point percentage drop in current share. Meanwhile, Warner Records — which includes Warner Latin, catalog label Rhino and parts of Warner Nashville in its share — surged from sixth place last year to fourth place this year with a more than 1% boost. Zach Bryan’s self-titled album and No. 1 Hot 100 single “I Remember Everything” led the way, with Bryan landing at No. 4 on Billboard’s year-end Artist 100 ranking and his “Something in the Orange” being the third-most-streamed song of 2023.
In fifth, Capitol Music Group also saw a big year-over-year boost in current share, from 4.97% in 2022 to 5.90% in 2023. The label — which remains in fifth place despite the jump in share and encompasses Motown/Quality Control, Blue Note, Astralwerks, Capitol Christian and indie distributor Virgin Music — enjoyed the breakout success of Ice Spice (signed in conjunction with 10K Projects) in the past year as well as a top 10 Hot 100 single from Toosii.
Sixth place in current share belongs to RCA Records at 4.70%, a one-spot jump over last year when it came in with 4.65%. The label, whose market share does not include any other labels or distributors, benefited from the enduring success of SZA’s multi-Grammy nominated S.O.S. album, the third-biggest project of 2023, as well as huge hits from Doja Cat, Tate McCrae and Ateez, the latter of which landed a No. 1 album in the fourth quarter. Dropping into seventh is Columbia at 4.67% of current share, down from fourth in 2022 when it had a 6.67% share. Columbia, which includes some labels from indie distributor RED in its market share, still racked up a big hit with Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers,” which spent eight weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100 this year on its way to becoming the fourth-most-streamed song of 2023 and the most-heard song on radio in the United States, according to Luminate.
In eighth, Sony Nashville jumped a half percentage point year over year to 2.32% from 1.89% last year, with a big Luke Combs album helping it rise one spot from last year’s ranking. Meanwhile, Sony’s Epic Records slipped to ninth year over year, despite boosting its current share from 2.23% in 2022 to 2.30% in 2023 and scoring a pair of big projects from Travis Scott — whose Utopia album was the seventh-biggest of 2023, according to Luminate — and Tyla with “Water,” which roared into the Hot 100’s top 10 late in the year. Rounding out the top 10 is yet another Sony label, Sony Latin, which also had a huge year, upping its current share from 1.24% in 2022 to an impressive 1.95% in 2023.
In overall market share, Republic’s dominance with newer releases lifted it to the No. 1 slot over IGA, 9.83% to 9.65%, despite the latter’s industry-leading 9.93% share of the catalog market. Atlantic, at 8.09%, sits comfortably in third, while Warner Records and Capitol Music Group are neck-and-neck in fourth and fifth, with 6.68% and 6.66% overall share, respectively, with their catalog shares tied at 6.92%. Columbia’s 6.65% catalog share is enough to lift it into sixth in overall share, ahead of RCA, with the two separated at 6.14% and 5.16%, respectively, in overall share. Epic (2.61%), Sony Nashville (2.05%) and Def Jam (1.84%) round out the overall top 10 rankings.
Among the label groups, the weight of catalog once again lifts all ships, with UMG jumping to an industry-leading 38.46% overall market share, up from 37.54% in 2022. Sony also saw an increase year over year, ending 2023 at 27.18%, up from 2022’s 26.87%, while Warner dipped slightly year over year, to 18.62% in overall share in 2023 compared to 19.05% in 2022. The indies by distribution ownership also fell, to 15.74% from 16.54% in 2022.
This year has been defined by consistency at the top of the charts, and one record label has led in current market share in each of the first three quarters: Republic Records, which has 12.28% of the market through Sept. 28, according to Luminate. That’s a negligible drop from last quarter’s 12.46% and more than four percentage points higher than the 8.77% share the label had for the same period last year.
Republic’s market share — much like the year overall — has been headlined by the massive Morgan Wallen album One Thing at a Time, which has racked up more than 4.5 million equivalent album units since its March debut, and Taylor Swift’s prolific release schedule, which not only includes her latest collection of new tracks, Midnights, but also the release of Speak Now (Taylor’s Version). Both are among the top 10 albums of the year so far. (Republic’s share also includes Island, Big Loud, Mercury, Cash Money and indie distributor Imperial.)
Wallen’s dominance is such that his label, Big Loud, would rank eighth among all labels on its own, with a 2.69% current market share if it were broken out from Republic, with both One Thing at a Time and his last release, Dangerous: The Double Album, both counting toward current share. (Current is defined as albums released within the past 18 months or that have remained in the top half of the Billboard 200.)
Coming in at a comfortable second place, with big third-quarter releases from Olivia Rodrigo and NewJeans, was Interscope Geffen A&M, which hit a high mark for the year so far with an 8.55% current share, a half-point increase over its midyear mark. That’s down from the 9.23% current share IGA posted at the third-quarter mark of 2022, but is a strong showing in a year in which Republic has vacuumed up so much market share. (IGA’s share also includes Verve Label Group.)
In third place, Atlantic — which encompasses 300 Elektra Entertainment — has also moved to a high mark for the year, with a 7.39% share, up from 7.34% at midyear. The music group’s performance was boosted by releases by Gunna, Lil Uzi Vert and, most significantly, the Barbie soundtrack, which is among the top five albums of the third quarter with over 650,000 equivalent album units.
However, factoring in back catalog to look at overall market share shakes up the top two. Interscope takes the top spot with 9.57%, besting Republic’s 9.49% by a shade over 500,000 units through the first three quarters, with Atlantic in third at 8.31%. That’s due to the deeper catalog of IGA and Atlantic: They are Nos. 1 and 2 in catalog-only share, with 9.91% and 8.62%, respectively. Republic finished third at 8.54%. Coming into the final quarter of the year, that’s a race to watch.
Capitol, which includes Motown/Quality Control, Blue Note, Astralwerks, Capitol Christian and indie distributor Virgin Music, remained steady in fourth place at 6.01% (from 6.0% at midyear) through three quarters. (Although HYBE acquired Quality Control earlier this year, Universal Music Group [UMG] continued to distribute the label.)
In fifth, Warner Records has made large gains throughout the year, largely due to the successes within Warner Nashville. (Its market share also includes catalog label Rhino, as well as Warner Music Latina.) Zach Bryan’s self-titled album has been a standout success in the quarter, while Bailey Zimmerman’s Religiously. The Album continues to perform well. Notably, both Capitol and Warner made big leaps in current market share year over year: Capitol jumped from sixth place to fourth, growing from 4.50% in 2022 to 6.01% in 2023; Warner grew from 4.77% in 2022 to 5.89% in 2023.
Slipping down the rankings year over year was Columbia, which dropped in current share from fourth through three quarters in 2022 (6.93%) to sixth in 2023 (4.93%). Columbia scored big this year with Miley Cyrus’ Endless Summer Vacation, though 2022’s slate with releases from Harry Styles, Beyoncé and Adele represents a tough act to follow. RCA, in seventh, remains on a hot streak led by the huge success of SZA’s SOS — still the No. 2 album of the year — with the label coming in at a 4.64% share, up from 4.47% this time last year.
Epic has roared back after a relatively quiet 2023 on the strength of Travis Scott’s mammoth Utopia, which boosted the label from 1.82% in current share at midyear to 2.39% at the three-quarters mark — its highest quarterly showing for the year. Sony Nashville (eighth, 2.50%) and Sony Latin (10th, 1.96%) round out the top 10, with each growing more than half a percentage point year over year.
Among the label groups, both UMG (up from 32.54% to 34.61%) and Sony Music Entertainment (up from 27.09% to 27.50%) made big year-over-year strides, while Warner Music Group (down from 18.64% to 17.46%) and, collectively, independent labels (down from 21.73% to 20.43%) lost share compared with the same period in 2022.
At the midyear mark of 2023, there’s one over-arching theme: so far, it’s the year of Morgan Wallen. The artist’s album One Thing At a Time is the most-consumed album of the year so far by far, racking up 3.312 million equivalent album units in the U.S. since its March release, while its single “Last Night” gobbled up the most U.S. on-demand audio streams of the year so far, with 588.7 million.
That helps explain a huge leap in country music market share so far this year, with the genre growing to 8.36% of the U.S. market, from 7.83% at the halfway point last year. Overall, in terms of current consumption units — those derived from albums released within the past 18 months — country music increased by 4.5 million equivalent album units over the same period in 2022, the highest among all 15 genres tracked by Luminate in 2023 so far.
But that’s just one of the big takeaways derived from combing through the data six months into this year. Here are four other observations from the first half of 2023.
Why is Rock so big? Catalog.
Overall, rock has grown most of any genre year over year in consumption units, with 11.2 million more units in 2023 over 2022. That growth, however, is almost entirely from catalog — 10.3 million of it, compared to 900,000 units of growth from current releases. It’s the second-largest growth metric among genres in terms of catalog, just behind R&B/hip-hop in raw numbers (11.2 million), though because R&B/hip-hop actually declined in current releases (more on that later), rock saw the biggest overall growth in unit terms.
It’s a testament to the enduring value that exists in classic rock recordings — and a reason those catalogs continue to be valued, bought and sold at such high figures — and helps explain why it still represents such a large part of the market, despite rock not generally being represented in the highest echelons of the charts. Rock’s catalog share of 23.31% is behind R&B/hip-hop’s 27.15% in the rankings, but is much higher than that of pop (12.91%) and country (7.69%), the next two genres in share.
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Consider the rankings in terms of current share: rock (10.32%) slides to third place, behind pop (10.69%) and barely ahead of country (10.16%), with Latin coming in fifth at 7.84%. And its current unit growth year over year of 900,000 is significantly behind country (4.5 million), world music (3.3 million) and Latin (2.5 million), although at least it’s still growing, while R&B/hip-hop and pop is not.
R&B/Hip-Hop: The Elephant In the Room
The drumbeat has been growing louder over the past year when it comes to what, exactly, is going on with R&B/hip-hop from a market share perspective. But despite concern that the genres’ grip on the public consciousness is getting diluted, a few things have remained consistent: it remained the largest genre in consumption units, it was still growing the most in raw numbers (if not percentage-wise), and R&B and hip-hop artists were continuously topping the charts dictating the culture.
Some of that dominance, however, has begun to slip. There is the biggest one — in the first half of the year, no hip-hop album had yet topped the Billboard 200, a distinction that finally ended in the first week of the third quarter with Lil Uzi Vert’s Pink Tape this week. And in terms of year over year unit growth, R&B/hip-hop slipped to second at 13.01% of the market’s growth, behind rock (17.71%) and just ahead of country (12.35%). And as consumption overall grew by 13.4%, R&B/hip-hop remained stagnant at 6.3% — the same mark it had at the midway point of last year. Still, it’s been a weird year; R&B/hip-hop actually accumulated more growth in raw units in the first half of 2023 (8.3 million) than in the first half of 2022 (7.8 million).
Yet there are signs for concern — and not necessarily just because of gains in other genres. R&B/hip-hop’s overall market share has slipped from 27.64% halfway through 2022 to 25.92% halfway through 2023, more than a point and a half. Its share of on-demand streaming has dropped from 29.39% to 27.31% — more than two percentage points. Overall album sales growth — huge for rock (45.85%) and pop (30.99%) — was just 2.53%, though growth at all in that metric is still positive. Even more concerning are its current numbers, which we’ll get to in a second. So, with R&B/hip-hop’s market share at its lowest point since 2018, is it just a cyclical, first-half blip due to domination by the likes of Morgan Wallen and Taylor Swift so far this year? Or something deeper?
Current Share Tells the Story of the First Half
The three genres that experienced the biggest growth over the first half of 2023 also tell the story of the first six months of the year, and they’re undeniable on several metrics. In terms of overall percentage growth year over year, World Music — which encompasses ex-U.S. genres like K-Pop and Afrobeats — was up 42.5%; Latin was up 21.9%; and Country was up 21.1%. Each managed to grow their overall share of the market significantly over the same period last year: Country, the fourth-biggest genre, rose from 7.83% to 8.36%; Latin, in fifth, grew from 6.25% to 6.72%; World, in seventh, grew from 2.20% to 2.76%. In comparison, the top three genres — R&B/Hip-Hop, Rock and Pop, in that order — all ceded share of the market at least somewhat year over year.
Looking at the current share illustrates where those gains came from. The country genre came in 4.5 million units higher than at the same point in 2022, boosting its current share from 7.98% to 10.16%. world music added 3.3 million units, vaulting over dance/electronic into sixth with a 5.22% share of the current market, up from 3.29% at this time last year. And Latin added 2.5 million units over last year’s total, increasing from 6.86% to 7.84% this year.
The flip side of that is the current percentage drops from the other leading genres. Current R&B/hip-hop share fell from 27.50% halfway through 2022 to 22.62% this year, an almost 5% decline, and dropped 8.0% in consumption units year over year. Pop slid from 12.87% to 10.69% in share, dropping 7.1% in consumption units year over year. Rock’s slip in share was more modest (10.83% to 10.32%), but also still fell, though its unit count actually grew (the slide in share is due to larger gains elsewhere). It’s a reflection of how the first half of the year has gone in terms of impactful releases in the market.
World Music’s Growth Isn’t Slowing Down
World music now accounts for 2.76% of the overall market in the U.S., up from 2.20% at the midway point last year. It’s not huge, but by percentage, it’s far and away the fastest-growing genre (up 42.5% year over year) in the industry; by raw consumption unit growth, it’s sixth-highest, having increased by 4.4 million units over its midyear 2022 mark. And it’s up by huge percentages in just about every metric: overall album sales (71.3%), physical album sales (76.4%) and on-demand streaming (38.2%) growth all far outstrip the industry overall.
Some of this is just a function of how percentages work: a smaller number that’s growing quickly will naturally have a higher percentage growth than a larger number that, while growing at a larger volume, is growing at a slower rate. But these percentages continuing getting higher, not smaller: in 2020, it grew 8.0% over 2019; in 2021, the metric was 18.9%; in 2022, it was 26.4%. From the first half of 2019 through the first half of 2023, world music is up 131.3%.
So far this year over midway through 2022, K-pop consumption is up 154.9%, and Afrobeats consumption is up 143.8%. They’re still small in terms of actual consumption numbers — K-pop’s numbers compare most directly to those of children’s music for the first half of the year, for example — but they no longer exist in the realm of the potential. The industry has spent the past few years pouring money and resources into these areas and hoping to boost these artists in the States. The metrics are no longer about what the future may look like: it’s here now.
In 2023 so far, what’s happened in the last three months of the year largely mirrors the first when it comes to U.S. record label market share: the top two albums of the year — Morgan Wallen’s One Thing At a Time (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic) and SZA’s S.O.S. (TDE/RCA) — are still dominating the top two slots among consumption albums through June 29, according to Luminate. But while that may come as little surprise to industry chart-watchers, the rest of the top five points to a relatively surprising level of domination by one record label in particular: Republic Records.
In the first quarter of the year, Republic — which encompasses Island, Big Loud, Mercury, Cash Money and indie distributor Imperial — put up a current market share (defined as albums released within the past 18 months) of 12.45%, nearly five percentage points higher than second-placed Interscope Geffen A&M’s 7.75% (Interscope also encompasses Verve Label Group). At the end of the first half of the year, Republic’s current share stands at 12.46% — a remarkable level of consistency that shows the staying power of Republic’s current big releases, even as IGA has tightened the gap a bit, posting an 8.08% mark of its own to remain in second place.
Republic’s 12.46% current share at the midway point is also a significant leap from where it stood at the halfway mark in 2022, when it posted a current share of 8.92%, good for third place behind leaders Atlantic Records (9.92%) and second-placed Interscope (9.36%). Republic releases — chiefly Wallen’s album, but also Taylor Swift’s Midnights (one week) and Stray Kids’ 5 Star (one week) — spent all 13 weeks of the second quarter at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, part of a run of 17 straight weeks that only ended with Lil Uzi Vert’s new album Pink Tape.
Both Republic’s consistency and Interscope’s growth helped propel parent company Universal Music Group to a 34.48% current market share at the midyear mark, an improvement over both its first quarter current share (33.59%) and its current share at the midyear mark of 2022 (33.18%). Sony Music, in second place at 27.54%, dipped slightly from its huge Q1 current share of 28.46%, though it is still up significantly from the midyear mark in 2022, when it posted a 26.01% current share. And the Warner Music Group, in third among the major corporations, grew to 17.26% at the halfway mark of the year in current share, up from Q1’s 16.81% and 2022’s 15.33%. The collection of indie labels came in at 20.72% in current share at midyear, down from 21.15% in Q1.
Atlantic, in third among current share, grew to 7.34% at the midyear mark from 7.22% in Q1, though still down from the leading 9.92% it had midway through 2022. (Atlantic includes the combined 300 Elektra Entertainment Group.) But Capitol Music Group — which includes Motown/Quality Control, Blue Note, Astralwerks, Capitol Christian and indie distributor Virgin Music — surged from sixth place in Q1 2023 (5.56%) to fourth at the midyear market (6.00%), up significantly from the 4.31% it posted at the midway mark of 2022. Fifth-placed Warner Records (encompassing catalog label Rhino, Warner Latin and the bulk of Warner Nashville) also jumped two slots, from seventh in Q1 to fifth at midyear, to put up a 5.62% current share, up from 5.23% in Q1 and a 4.63% mark halfway through 2022.
Those two jumps from Capitol and Warner mean that Columbia (which includes some labels from indie distributor RED) and RCA Records slide down to sixth and seventh among current share, respectively. Columbia dipped from 5.85% in Q1 to 5.16% at the midyear mark in 2023 — though down significantly from the 6.65% it had at midyear 2022 — while RCA dropped from 5.76% in Q1 to 4.98% at the halfway point this year, a mark which is improved from the 4.31% it posted midway through 2022.
Rounding out the top 10 among current share is a trio of Sony labels, including two that made large strides: Sony Nashville, in eighth, at 2.55%, which grew from 2.30% in the first quarter and 1.72% midway through 2022; and Sony Latin in ninth, at 1.95%, up from 1.92% in Q1 and 1.22% halfway through 2022. Epic Records, at 1.82%, came in 10th in current share, dropping from 2.06% in Q1 and 2.24% at this time last year.
But current market share — while a strong indicator of recent performance for any label — does not tell the whole story, particularly at a time when Luminate reports that catalog (albums older than 18 months old, or the bulk of many major labels’ repertoire) share has increased again in 2023 so far, to 72.8% of all consumption from 72.4% in 2022, with a corresponding drop for current from 27.6% to 27.2%. And when taking into account all consumption, Interscope actually leads the U.S. industry in overall market share, posting a 9.48% mark at the midway point of 2023, up from 9.44% in Q1 and slightly down from its leading 9.80% mark halfway through 2022. That nudges Republic into second, ever so slightly, at 9.34% in overall share, a number that is also up from its Q1 mark (9.16%) and a significant increase from midyear 2022, when it posted a 7.96% share and came in third.
Outside those top two labels, the next handful of slots in the top 10 remain in the same order as their current share rankings, with Atlantic (8.31%) equalling its Q1 mark despite falling from the 9.30% it had in 2022; and Capitol also remaining static over Q1, posting a 6.70% (from 6.68% in Q1 and 6.06% in 2022). Warner (6.55%), in fifth, swapped positions with Columbia (6.23%) from their respective Q1 showings, while RCA (5.27%), in seventh, dropped from its 5.50% in Q1 but improved on its 4.92% mark from midway last year. Epic (2.54%), Sony Nashville (2.13%) and Def Jam (1.88%) rounded out the top 10 in overall market share.
Among the major label groups, UMG grew from 37.25% in overall share at the midpoint of last year to 37.98% this year, while Sony grew a full percentage point, jumping to 27.34% from last year’s mark of 26.34%. Warner Music Group, meanwhile, jumped significantly from 16.26% midway through 2022 to 18.75% halfway through this year, largely at the expense of the Indies, which fell from 20.15% to 15.93% in overall share this year.
A little more than a decade ago, Mumford and Sons were everywhere, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with Babel and going on to win album of the year at the Grammys. Journalists cranked out articles about the ascendance of like-minded acts that favored acoustic instruments, and one writer called up Joie Manda, a longtime hip-hop executive who had then recently started a new gig at Interscope Records. “I was asked, ‘How do you feel rap is doing with other kinds of music prevailing this year?’” Manda remembers.
Manda’s job has changed — he is now founder and CEO of Encore Recordings, home of rising acts like Victony and Uncle Waffles — but he is still humoring the same questions. “All this is cyclical,” he says.
Last year, music executives noticed that the market share of hip-hop and R&B was gradually declining; then this June, Billboard reported that rap had yet to produce a Billboard 200-topping album or Billboard Hot 100-topping single in 2023. The second fact took on more weight in light of the first, and questions about hip-hop’s commercial health surged once again, careening around rap Twitter and touching off think pieces and aspirational marketing plans (Toosii told SiriusXM he aims to have rap’s first No. 1 of 2023). “Everyone’s speaking on how we haven’t had a No. 1,” says Aaron “Ace” Christian, who manages the rapper Cordae and the producer Turbo. “This is a filtering process. It’s like survival of the fittest.”
Existential concerns about the fate of various genres and scenes appear increasingly common around the music industry. K-Pop is allegedly “in crisis.” Even entire nations are worried: “The global market share of U.K. artists has slipped” markedly, according to the former head of the British Phonographic Industry, leading him to call for additional government investment in music in 2022.
All these gloomy pronouncements are likely lost on most listeners — fluctuations in genre fortunes from year to year are barely perceptible from ground level. While the general public couldn’t care less about genre market share, however, the music industry relies heavily on these numbers for its own internal report card.
And in an intensely competitive industry, conversations about genres’ commercial momentum are also inextricably tied to power within music companies. Everyone flocks to a space that’s bubbling, hoping to grab a piece. Conversely, when a genre is believed to be on the downslope, that often impacts the way resources are allocated inside labels. Budgets can be trimmed, opportunities denied. “Black music is such a large part of the music industry,” Naima Cochrane, a Black Music Action Coalition board member, told Billboard earlier this year. “But if that starts to slip, then our voice becomes a little less urgent.”
Executives with long track records in rap are acutely aware of this dynamic. “It’s not just a hip-hop thing — pop’s [market share is] down too,” says Dave Gordon, a streaming consultant and manager. (Pop’s portion of the market is down 5.8% year to date relative to the same period in 2022, but that fact hasn’t elicited the same handwringing around the industry — possibly because the space has still produced chart-toppers like Miley Cyrus‘ “Flowers.”)
“Obviously when you’re at the top and the No. 1 genre, which some people [in the music business] dislike, you have a bullseye on you,” Gordon continues. And the stat about No. 1’s, which he calls “unnecessary,” “feels like a, ‘yes, finally!’ type of thing” from an industry that was never entirely comfortable with hip-hop’s dominance, and may be hoping that its lead continues to narrow.”
Several longtime executives also point out that genre-related statistics are increasingly ill-suited to describe a world packed with blurry genre-hybrids. “I don’t feel that hip-hop’s not present at the top of the charts,” says the producer Salaam Remi (Nas, Miguel), pointing to the undeniable rap influence in SZA’s SOS, which spent the first five weeks of 2023 atop the Billboard 200. “This is just hip-hop energy switched around.”
For another example of hip-hop getting the assist, if not the points: Morgan Wallen is classified as country, but he slips easily into a rap cadence on the second verse of his multi-week No. 1 “Last Night.” Elsewhere on his chart-topping album One Thing at a Time, he borrows from the Rich Gang classic “Lifestyle.”
Wallen “is a country artist who takes a hip-hop approach to his songwriting,” says Simon Gebrelul of Isla Management, whose roster includes prominent rap producers like Boi-1da, Jahaan Sweet, and OZ. “Hip-hop is the No. 1 driver in our culture right now.” Of course, the success of rap-inflected country may do little to quell the concerns of hip-hop devotees. But it does point to a side effect of prominence: Nearly every other commercial style of music has swiped elements of hip-hop for added oomph. This is a testament to rap’s influence — and a challenge to its dominance.
Some hip-hop executives do see the recent numbers as a call for a direction change within the genre. A manager in the space worries that the underwhelming chart statistics from the first half of the year reflect “a lack of innovation in sound — everybody got comfortable grabbing a beat from an Atlanta trap producer.”
Others focused more on lyrics than sound: “Subject needs to matter again,” Christian argues. “If you don’t have anything to say, then eventually people are going to stop listening. Hip-hop became so quick and transactional that the value of it is being diminished, and that’s why people are resorting to other genres.”
Another longtime challenge identified by hip-hop executives is the genre’s tendency to spawn vibrant regional scenes that are hyper-specific. These may not always translate nationally — they weren’t designed to — even with major investment from record companies. “Drill is the last subgenre that really came to the forefront, but the subject matter is very regional,” Gordon says. As a result, drill fandom “really doesn’t go much further than Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and maybe Philadelphia listenership-wise,” adds another hip-hop A&R who requested anonymity to speak frankly.
But the hip-hop-tide-is-ebbing narrative has the potential to obscure exciting trends in contemporary rap. “You have more ladies in front — so many of these women are doing something that’s raw and making noise,” Remi notes. “You have a lot of niches rearing their heads in different ways,” adds Max Gousse, founder of Artistry Group and a longtime major-label executive before that.
Those developments — along with the fact that hip-hop and R&B still claim the largest chunk of market share, even if growth has slowed — are part of why a number of the executives who spoke for this story see the chart-focused headlines as alarmist. “I was a manager for 20-plus years, and I would have really amazing years, and not so amazing years, right?” says J. Erving, who got his start on street marketing teams for the likes of Mobb Deep and Cypress Hill and eventually went on to found the artist services company Human Re Sources. “The Lakers don’t win a championship every year.” (Gordon uses a slightly different basketball analogy, alluding to the fact that the biggest rappers have yet to release an album this year: “This is like the USA team with all college kids on it — the NBA is still the best.”)
When it comes to marketshare statistics, Manda radiates indifference. “If you’re an executive, and you’re only looking at the data and what piece of the pie hip-hop is to make a determination about how you invest in it, you should probably stay out of it,” the executive says simply. “Because you don’t love it.”
Through the first three months of 2023, two albums have largely defined the year and had a profound effect on the record label market share rankings for the first quarter: Morgan Wallen’s One Thing At a Time, on Republic; and SZA’s S.O.S., on RCA. Combined, the albums have spent all but two weeks atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this year and have contributed significantly to major gains for their respective labels.
In terms of current market share — albums released in the past 18 months — Republic Records has had a white-hot start, posting a 12.45% mark and besting the second-highest label, Interscope Geffen A&M (7.75%), by nearly five full percentage points. While Republic has continued to benefit from an exceptionally strong fourth quarter of 2022 — Q4 releases like Taylor Swift’s Midnights, Metro Boomin’s Heroes & Villains and Drake & 21 Savage’s Her Loss are all in the top 10 most-consumed albums of 2023 so far — much of that increase can be attributed to Wallen’s album. One Thing At a Time is so big that Wallen’s Republic label partner, Big Loud Records, would have ranked as the No. 8 label in current share in Q1 if it were broken out on its own, having posted a 2.84% share so far in the year. (Republic’s market share encompasses Big Loud, Island, Cash Money, Mercury and indie distributor Imperial.) In fact, the first-week impact of Wallen’s album was so large that it boosted Republic’s single-week current market share from 9.76% the week before it came out to 18.14% the week it debuted, meaning that nearly one in every five album consumption units that week was a Republic Records release.
Meanwhile, the SZA album, which has topped the Billboard 200 for eight non-consecutive weeks in 2023 so far, helped catapult RCA to a 5.76% current market share in Q1 this year. That’s up from 4.34% this time last year and lands it in fifth place, only slightly behind its Sony sister label Columbia at 5.85%. That’s significant enough for RCA on its own — rarely, if ever, has it placed above Columbia in current share in any quarter in recent years — but alongside strong new releases like the Miley Cyrus album Endless Summer Vacation on Columbia, as well as the continuing success of releases from 2022 from Bad Bunny (Un Verano Sin Ti, The Orchard), Harry Styles (Harry’s House, Columbia), Beyoncé (Renaissance, Columbia) and Future (I Never Liked You, Epic), it’s helped push Sony Music Entertainment to a 28.46% current share in Q1. That’s up from 24.0% at this point last year and places Sony at its highest mark since the end of 2016, according to Luminate.
Those are the biggest takeaways from a first quarter that has thrown up plenty of surprises so far, as labels have settled into another year of a changing marketplace. Sony’s surge has seen the second-largest major close the gap in current share on market leader Universal Music Group, which essentially held steady at 33.59% in Q1 2023 from 33.58% at the same point last year. The indie sector also had a strong quarter of releases, accounting for 21.15% of the market, while Warner Music Group came in at 16.81% in current share. (Warner and the indies do not have a direct year-over-year comparison due to WMG-owned distributor ADA being shifted under Warner’s umbrella midway through 2022.)
In current share, Interscope and Atlantic both receded from the first quarter of 2022 to 7.75% (from 8.91% last year) and 7.22% (from 10.57% last year), respectively, coming in second and third. (Interscope’s market share encompasses Verve Label Group, while Atlantic’s includes the combined 300 Elektra Entertainment Group). Surrounding RCA on the list is a trio of labels who all also boosted their current market share year over year, with Columbia coming in fourth (5.85%, up from 5.78%), Capitol Music Group coming in sixth (5.56%, up from 4.13%) and Warner Records finishing in seventh (5.23%, up from 4.22%), marking encouraging starts for those labels over the first quarter of 2022. (Columbia’s share includes some labels from indie distributor RED; Capitol includes Motown/Quality Control, Astralwerks, Blue Note and indie distributor Virgin; and Warner Records includes catalog label Rhino, Warner Latin and the bulk of Warner Nashville.)
Coming in eighth in current share is Sony Nashville at 2.30%, bolstered by the continued success of Luke Combs and his brand new album, Growin’ Old. That’s up big from the 1.51% it had in Q1 last year before Growin’ Up was released last April. In ninth place is Epic Records, which at 2.06% saw a boost from 1.83% at this point in 2022. Sony Music Latin rounded out the top 10 among current share with 1.92%.
In overall market share, which factors in current as well as a label’s catalog, Universal Music Group’s dominance extends to more than 10 percentage points, at 37.65% over Sony’s 27.62%. That gap has narrowed, however, as Sony picked up nearly two full percentage points year over year, posting its best number since the end of 2016. Warner, in overall share, flipped back above the indies, at 18.55%, with the latter posting 16.81% for the first quarter.
Among the individual labels, Interscope was No. 1 in overall share, at 9.44%, coming in just ahead of Republic’s 9.16%. That represents a slight dip for IGA (9.76% in Q1 last year), while Republic’s strong current share boosted it significantly from the 7.91% it posted in the first quarter of 2022, when it came in third. Dropping from second to third in overall share this year is Atlantic, at 8.31%, down from 9.49% this time last year.
Also making a jump in overall share is Capitol, which rebounded from sixth at this point last year to reach fourth in overall share in Q1 this year with 6.68%, up from 5.91% in 2022. Following in fifth and sixth are Columbia (6.55%) and Warner (6.38%), respectively, each up slightly year over year. RCA’s strong current figure this year allows it to stay in seventh, albeit with a larger 5.50% versus 4.92% in Q1 2022. Epic (2.63%) and Sony Nashville (2.03%) follow in eighth and ninth, while Def Jam’s stronger catalog figure lands it in 10th at 1.96% overall.
Additional Notes
— Because 300 Elektra Entertainment’s market share is included under Atlantic, they were excluded from breaking out in the rankings so as to not double count the figures. But its combined overall share comes out to 2.24%, which would have been good enough for ninth overall on its own. And that’s without digging into the success of Bailey Zimmerman, who has a top 10 record on the Hot 100 right now with “Rock And a Hard Place.” Zimmerman is signed to Elektra, which has its market share run through Atlantic, but is worked at radio through Warner Nashville, which has its market share split between Warner Records and Atlantic.
— Island, which runs through Republic, had a 1.51% overall share on its own, which would have been good enough for 15th had it been broken out thanks to a current share that has grown from 0.51% to 0.70% year over year. Similarly, Motown, which runs through Capitol, came in at 1.04% overall, driven by a big leap in current share from 0.71% in Q1 last year to 1.48% in Q1 this year thanks to releases from Lil Yachty and Lil Baby, among others.
— Elsewhere, Alamo continued punching high. Despite the fact that it’s the youngest label with probably the smallest roster of any label that made the rankings, it ranked 15th in current market share, at 0.88%, higher than several much larger and older labels.
Global music sales rose for the eighth consecutive year in 2022, with recorded music revenues growing in every world market and across almost all formats, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s (IFPI) “Global Music Report 2023.”
Total revenues climbed to $26.2 billion, a rise of 9% on the previous year. Although that rate of growth is half 2021 year’s rise, when revenues were up 18.5% year-on-year, IFPI said it was still the fourth highest growth level the recorded music business has seen this millennium.
The leading driver of growth was a 10.3% rise in paid-for streaming subscription revenue, which totaled $12.7 billion last year. IFPI reports there were 589 million users of paid subscription accounts at the end of 2022, up from 523 million in the previous 12 months and 443 million in 2020.
Streaming (including paid subscription and advertising-supported) now accounts for 67% of sales across the music industry, up from 65% in 2021 and 62% in 2020, although rate of growth is slowing.
In 2021, streaming revenues rocketed 24% to $16.9 billion. Last year, total revenues streaming revenues increased 11.5% to $17.5 billion.
Despite the dominance of streaming, physical music formats continue to be resilient with CD and vinyl revenues increasing for a second consecutive year — albeit at a slower rate than 2021’s 16.1% rise, fueled by a post-pandemic boom in home music purchases — to $4.6 billion, up 4% on the prior year.
Within physical music revenues, last year’s growth in CD sales proved to be a fleeting uplift with revenues falling 0.4% in 2022. Vinyl revenues shot up 17.1% (IFPI did not provide revenue numbers for CD or vinyl sales).
In terms of market share, physical accounted for 17.5% of the overall market last year (down from 19.2% in 2021) with Asia generating almost half (49.8%) of all global revenues for physical music sales.
Performance rights revenue climbed 8.6% to $2.5 billion, representing 9.4% of global revenues, while sync income was up 22.3% to $0.6 billion, representing 2.4%.
Downloads and what IFPI classifies as other (non-streaming) digital formats was once again the only format channel to record a decline, falling 11.7% to $900 million and representing just 3.6% of the global market.
As per previous year’s reports, IFPI uses current exchange rates when compiling its Global Music Report, restating all historic local currency values on an annual basis. Market values therefore vary retrospectively as a result of foreign currency movements, says IFPI, which represents more than 8,000 record company members worldwide, including all three major labels, Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment and Warner Music Group.
Thanks to sustained growth in streaming, global recorded music revenues have now reached their highest level since 1999 — when music sales totaled $22.3 billion – on an absolute dollar basis, not accounting for inflation, reports IFPI. Piracy and declining physical sales saw the market bottom out at $13.1 billion in 2014.
“Record companies’ investment and innovation has helped make music even more globally interconnected than ever,” said IFPI chief executive Frances Moore in a statement, accompanying the report.
As the music economy grows, however, “so too do the areas in which record companies must work to ensure that the value of the music artists are creating is recognized and returned,” Moore warned.
Referring to the ongoing threat of music piracy, she said the challenges for record companies, artists and creators are “becoming increasingly complex as a greater number of actors seek to benefit from music whilst playing no part in investing in and developing it.”
Writing in the report’s foreword, Universal Music Group chairman and CEO Sir Lucian Grainge said “to succeed, music’s future must be artist-centric.” He called on the industry to focus on building a “robust, growing and sustainable music ecosystem” in which “creators of all music content, whether in the form of audio or short-form video, are fairly compensated and can therefore thrive for decades to come.”
IFPI’s Global Music Report 2023 Topline Figures:
Global music sales up 9% to $26.2 billion
Streaming subscription revenues up 10.3% to $12.7 billion
Total streaming revenues (including paid and ad-supported) up 11.5% to $17.5 billion
Physical revenues up 4% to $4.6 billion
Performance rights revenues rise 8.6% to $2.5 billion
589 million paid music subscribers
Streaming’s share of global music sales: 67%
In terms of world markets, the U.S. retains its number one position with music sales growing 4.8% and exceeding $10 billion in recorded music sales for the first time.
Japan holds steady in second place with sales growing 5.4% in 2022. The third and fourth-biggest markets for recorded music remain the United Kingdom (+5.4%) and Germany (+2.2%), respectively.
The rest of the top 10 is made up of China (+28.4%), which becomes a top five global market for the first time, France (+7.7%), South Korea, Canada (+8.1%), Brazil (+15.4%) and Australia (+8.1%).
IFPI said that music sales were up in all 62 of the global markets it tracks. The organization’s free-to-access report does not provide market-by-market revenue breakdowns.
On a regional basis, it was a similar story with revenues from the U.S. and Canada region up 5%, while Latin America – where streaming now accounts for 85.2% of the market — saw growth of 25.9%
The fastest-growing market region in 2022 was Sub-Saharan Africa, which recorded a 34.7% rise in music sales, largely driven by the booming music market in South Africa, where sales were up by more than 30% year-on-year.
Revenues in Middle East and North Africa, last year’s fastest growing region, rose by almost 24%, driven almost entirely by streaming, which has 95.5% share of the region’s recorded music market – the highest share for any region worldwide, reports IFPI.
Revenues in Europe, the second-largest recorded music region in the world after the U.S. and Canada, grew by 7.5% — compared to the prior year’s growth rate of 15.4% — driven by gains in Europe’s three biggest markets, the U.K., Germany and France. Asia grew by 15.4%.