State Champ Radio Grammys
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The Grammy screening committee, which has the final say on where albums best fit in the Grammy process, placed Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion in the best country album category. They are competing with 77 other albums for just five slots on the final ballot. Nominations will be announced on Nov. 8.
Both have a good chance of making it. Post was widely praised for coming to Nashville and getting to know the city’s people and its ways. Beyoncé didn’t do that, as Luke Bryan, HARDY and others have pointed out, but her album put a bright spotlight on the contributions Black artists have made to country music – contributions that have too often been overlooked.
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Beyoncé is vying to become only the second Black artist to be nominated for best country album. Mickey Guyton was nominated in 2022 for her debut studio album, Remember Her Name. (Important note: The Grammys didn’t have this category in the 1970s, when Charley Pride was at his peak.)
Beyoncé didn’t receive any CMA nominations, but that doesn’t doom her album’s chances here. The Chicks were nominated for (and won) five Grammys for their 2006 album Taking the Long Way, even though they, likewise, had been shut out in that year’s CMA nominations. (The Chicks were nominated for vocal group of the year at the CMAs the following year, a period that encompassed their Grammy sweep.)
Beyoncé’s shutout in the CMA nominations received a lot of attention. Some Grammy voters may embrace her in part to make up for that perceived snub. (“Make-up voting” is real thing. Many believe Ben Affleck’s failure to land an Oscar nomination for best director for Argo helped that 2012 film win best picture.)
Four of the five albums that were nominated for the CMA award for album of the year are eligible here: Luke Combs’ Fathers & Sons, Cody Johnson’s Leather, Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well and Chris Stapleton’s Higher.
Stapleton and Musgraves are both repeat winners of the Grammy for best country album. Stapleton has won the award three times; Musgraves has won it twice. Fun fact: If Stapleton wins once more, he’ll move into a tie as the act with the most wins in the history of the category. And who will he tie? The Chicks.
Combs has yet to win the Grammy for best country album, but he was nominated for a previous album, Growin’ Up. Johnson has yet to be nominated in the category.
The fifth CMA nominee for album of the year, Jelly Roll’s Whitsitt Chapel, vied for a Grammy nod for best country album last year, but it ultimately wasn’t nominated. (It of course is not Grammy-eligible again this year.)
That’s six albums that have an excellent shot at a nomination, which is one more than the number of available slots. (The Grammys expand the field beyond five only in the event of ties. Since 2000, there have been six nominees twice – in 2004 and 2012.)
And there more “can’t-miss” albums, so clearly some won’t make it.
Like F-1 Trillion, Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind came out too late for this year’s CMAs, but it is eligible here. Wilson’s previous album, Bell Bottom Country, won the Grammy for best country album and was voted album of the year at both the CMA and ACM Awards.
Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene would have been a strong contender – his previous album, Zach Bryan, was nominated in this category last year – but the unconventional star didn’t submit it for Grammy consideration.
Shaboozey’s Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going may not be a “can’t-miss,” but it’s a strong contender. It houses the smash “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” which has topped the Billboard Hot 100 for 13 weeks, longer than any other single so far this year. More importantly in the context of its chances here, it topped Country Airplay for seven weeks.
Megan Moroney’s Am I Okay? also has a shot. Moroney is also vying for a nomination as best new artist. Other albums by best new artist hopefuls on the best country album eligibility list include Dasha’s What Happens Now? and Nate Smith’s Through the Smoke.
Several other albums by past Grammy nominees for best country album are in the running – Jason Aldean’s Highway Desperado, Kenny Chesney’s Born, Tim McGraw’s Poet’s Resume, Willie Nelson’s The Border, Thomas Rhett’s About a Woman and Sturgill Simpson (Johnny Blue Skies)’s Passage Du Desir.
Various Artists albums are rarely nominated in this category, but there are two notable contenders this year – Petty Country: A Country Music Celebration of Tom Petty and A Tribute to The Judds. Only two Various Artists albums have been nominated in this category; both won. Timeless: Hank Williams Tribute won in 2002. Livin’, Lovin’, Losin’: Songs of the Louvin Brothers won in 2004.
Another high-profile Various Artists album, Twisters: The Album, isn’t in the running here. It’s vying for a nomination for best compilation soundtrack for visual media.
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So, which five albums have the best chance to be nominated in this Grammy category? This is tough, but here’s my prediction (alphabetically by artist): Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion, Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well, Chris Stapleton’s Higher and Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind.
The Grammys often talk about honoring an artist’s intent. Their screening committee did just that in at least two cases this year, allowing Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter to compete for best country album, and Dolly Parton’s Rockstar to compete for best rock album. Both albums could have been slotted in the best pop vocal album category, but the Grammys went along with the artists’ intentions.
Albums often wind up right on the border between two or more genres. That’s bound to happen more and more as artists increasingly cross genre lines. In those cases, the Recording Academy’s screening committee endeavors to put it in the most suitable category.
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Here are more albums whose placement was less-than-certain.
Jimmy Buffett’s last studio album, Equal Strain on All Parts, is entered for best Americana album, rather than best pop vocal album. Buffett died in September 2023.
Charli XCX’s sixth studio album, brat, is entered for best dance/electronic album rather than best pop vocal album.
Doja Cat’s Scarlet 2 Claude, a reissue of her fourth studio album, Scarlet, is entered for best rap album rather than best pop vocal album.
Twisters: The Album is entered for best compilation soundtrack for visual media rather than best country album.
All three Latin albums that made the top 10 on the Billboard 200 in the eligibility period are entered in different categories. Bad Bunny’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana is entered for best música urbana album. Kali Uchis’ Orquídeas is entered for best Latin pop album. Peso Pluma’s Éxodo is entered for best música Mexicana album (including Tejano).
Several top 10 albums weren’t entered at all, including Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene, Drake’s For All the Dogs and Ed Sheeran’s Autumn Variations.
Travis Scott’s Days Before Rodeo wasn’t eligible. The mixtape was released independently on his SoundCloud account in August 2014.
In other news, The Beatles and The Rolling Stones could be headed for their first Grammy showdown. The two legendary groups are both entered for best rock performance – The Beatles for “Now and Then” and The Stones for “Sweet Sounds of Heaven” (featuring Lady Gaga). If both groups are nominated, it will be the first time they have ever faced off on a Grammy ballot. The Grammys were resistant to rock in the years the bands were at their peak. The Beatles, being the world-shakers they were, were often nominated, but The Stones weren’t nominated in any category until 1978, when Some Girls was up for album of the year.
First-round voting opened Friday (Oct. 4). Voters have until Oct. 15 to make their first-round choices. Nominations will be announced on Nov. 8. Final-round voting runs from Dec. 12 through Jan. 3. The winners will be revealed on Feb. 2 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
One of the very best problems an artist can have is having to decide which of their many hits to enter in the Grammy competition for record of the year. (They can enter them all, but most artists and their camps are aware that it’s a far better strategy to select what you think is your strongest entry, rather than running the very real risk of splitting your votes.)
Sabrina Carpenter had three strong choices – “Espresso,” her breakthrough smash; “Please Please Please,” her first No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100; and “Taste,” her current smash. Her camp went with “Espresso.”
Billie Eilish had two top five hits on the Hot 100 during the eligibility year – the sexually provocative “Lunch” and the pretty ballad “Birds of a Feather.” Her camp went with “Birds of a Feather.” Eilish has a strong history in this category. She won record of the year two years running 2020-21 with “bad guy” and “Everything I Wanted.” She is one of only three acts in Grammy history (following Roberta Flack and U2) to win in that high-profile category two years in a row. This would be Eilish’s fifth nomination in this category.
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Taylor Swift had many hits during the year, but there was little question that her camp would select “Fortnight,” her collab with Post Malone that entered the Hot 100 at No. 1 in May, becoming her 12th No. 1 hit. And that is indeed her pick. It’s vying to become Swift’s sixth nomination in this category (a category she has yet to win).
It’s also not surprising that Ariana Grande’s camp went with “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” rather than her previous hit, “Yes, And?” Both singles entered the Hot 100 at No. 1, becoming her eighth and ninth No. 1 hits, but “We Can’t Be Friends” sustained on the chart longer. This is vying to become Grande’s second nomination in this category, following “7 Rings.”
Nor is it surprising that Beyoncé went with “Texas Hold ’Em” rather than “II Most Wanted,” her collab with Miley Cyrus, or “Jolene.” “Texas Hold Em” became her ninth No. hit on the Hot 100. It’s vying to become Bey’s ninth nomination in this category (a category she, like Swift, has yet to win).
Here are the records other artists who had multiple top 10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 chose to represent them in the Grammy record of the year competition:
Future: “Like That,” his Hot 100-topping collab with Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar.
21 Savage: “Redrum.”
There were a few surprises in the record of the year submissions. Megan Thee Stallion is entered for “Mamushi” (featuring Yuki Chiba) rather than her No. 1 smash “Hiss.” J. Cole is entered with “H.Y.B.” (featuring Bas and Central Cee) rather than his top 10 hit “7 Minute Drill.”
Teddy Swims is entered with an alternate version of his No. 1 smash “Lose Control,” because the original version was released prior to this eligibility year. He is entered with “Lose Control (The Village Sessions).”
A few artists who had top 10 hits during the year aren’t entered in the category at all, including Zach Bryan (“Pink Skies”), Drake (“Family Matters”) and Cardi B (“Enough (Miami)”).
It was a historic trip to the Grammy stage for Taylor Swift on Feb. 4, when she accepted her second and final award of the evening: album of the year, for her 2022 blockbuster set, Midnights. The win was her fourth in the category, breaking her out of a four-way tie and leaving her alone in the record books as the performing artist with the most album of the year wins in Grammy history. But by that point in the evening, Swift had already ensured that her fans were thinking more about the future — and perhaps AOTY trophy No. 5.
“I want to say thank you to the fans by telling you a secret that I’ve been keeping from you for the last two years — which is that my brand-new album comes out April 19,” Swift had revealed two hours earlier while accepting her first award of the night (best pop vocal album). “It’s called The Tortured Poets Department.”
A year after that announcement, Swift may indeed end up making more treks to the Crypto.com Arena stage thanks to the record-breaking Poets. While Midnights bowed with a jaw-dropping 1.6 million first-week units upon its October 2022 release (according to Luminate) and topped the Billboard 200 for six weeks — setting off the historic, globe-trotting Year of Taylor that followed in 2023 — it paled in comparison with Poets, which debuted with over 2.6 million units and spent a whopping 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200. Given that Swift has secured AOTY nominations for each of her three brand-new albums released this decade (including two wins, for Midnights and 2020’s folklore, of her four career total), Poets seems a lock for one of the eight AOTY slots at the 2025 ceremony.
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Whether Swift will win, however, is another question entirely — in part because of a remarkably strong and high-profile slate of likely competitors, including one particularly legendary perennial AOTY bridesmaid. But perhaps the most interesting question of all: After four AOTY wins, already unmatched in Grammy history, how much more does Swift really have to gain by adding another such statue to her collection?
While Swift has already triumphed among some strong fields this decade, it’s likely that the category’s 2025 slate of nominees — with its expected mix of huge critical and commercial successes from veteran A-listers and emergent superstars — will be the most formidable she has faced yet. Alex Tear, vp of music programming at SiriusXM and Pandora, mentions Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft), Chappell Roan (The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess) and Sabrina Carpenter (Short n’ Sweet) as strong contenders for the marquee award, calling Carpenter “a force” in particular. “It’s really going to be a highly competitive year,” he says.
Still, the narrative surrounding the AOTY race will likely boil down to two names: Swift and Beyoncé, whose Billboard 200-topping country and Americana pivot, Cowboy Carter, will almost certainly also vie for the prize. Cowboy did only a fraction of Poets’ flabbergasting first-week numbers — though at press time, it still had the year’s second-highest debut total, at 375,000 units — but it received widespread acclaim, as well as immense media attention for its genre explorations and for the music history Beyoncé illuminated on it.
And of course, Carter’s candidacy comes with extra intrigue, given that Beyoncé — one of the most celebrated album artists of her era — has still never won album of the year, despite her four career nods for it (and record 32 total Grammy wins).
One longtime Recording Academy member who considers both Swift’s and Beyoncé’s new albums worthy contenders calls the latter “the prohibitive favorite” due to her careerlong shutout in the category. “I think that there’s a feeling in the industry, which was certainly encouraged via last year’s Grammys” — when her husband, Jay-Z, called attention to her AOTY shutout in a televised speech — “that [Beyoncé] has been overlooked for too long,” the member says.
Swift may well have less at stake in this year’s AOTY race than her storied competitor. In fact, because Swift is at the overall height of her career success and exposure (and therefore at risk of generating a backlash), it’s worth considering whether she stands to lose more than she does to gain by netting a fifth trophy, especially over a competitor with such a strong case — and such a strong sentimental pull for so many.
And public perception about a potential Swift victory could be colored by her own philosophy about the Grammys and awards shows in general. “She looks at record-making as a competitive sport in a way that other artists don’t,” the academy member says. “Other artists are competitive and would like to win Grammys, but she really, like, thinks about that stuff going in [to recording her albums].”
Swift has admitted as much over the years. In 2015, she explained in a Grammy Pro interview that when her Red lost AOTY in 2014 (to Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories), it set in motion her plan to make a more cohesive pop album with 1989, which won the award two years later: “You have a few options when you don’t win an award — you can decide, ‘Oh, they’re wrong…’ [or] you can say, ‘Maybe they’re right,’ ” she said. Similarly, her 2020 documentary, Miss Americana, captured her reaction when her 1989 follow-up, 2017’s Reputation, failed to garner even a nomination in the category: “I just need to make a better record.” (Two albums later, she would win the category again in 2021 for the stylistic left turn folklore.)
Competitiveness, of course, doesn’t equate to outright making Grammy bait, Tear points out — noting that it seems to have inspired Swift to grow artistically, while at the same time, “we’ve grown into her evolving as a person and the choices that she wants to make as an artist… The projects of late are not chasing where the puck is going — it’s already there.”
And though the Recording Academy member gives Beyoncé the edge in this particular race, it simply makes sense to them that the biggest pop star on the planet should be one of the favorites every time she’s in the mix.
“Look, [Swift] is the most popular recording artist on earth, and therefore she’s likely to win more often than not,” the member says, citing the famous Muhammad Ali quote, “It’s not bragging if you can back it up.” And Swift “can do it, God bless her. She should keep doing it. Maybe she’ll win album of the year several more times.”
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
“Let ’Em In,” the title of a Wings hit from 1976, also seemed to be the Grammy Screening Committee’s guiding principle in deciding who to allow to compete for best new artist this year. Sabrina Carpenter, who is on her sixth album, was ruled eligible, as was Megan Moroney, who had a No. 30 hit on the Hot 100 in May 2023 with “Tennessee Orange.”
Moroney is nominated for new artist of the year the CMA Awards for the second year in a row. HARDY, who was nominated in that category at the CMAs in both 2021 and 2022, is also eligible this year. So is Cody Johnson, who was nominated in that category at the CMAs in both 2019 and 2022.
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How can an artist who has released six albums be eligible for best new artist? Because, while the Grammys set a minimum number of releases an artist must have to qualify in this category (five singles/tracks or one album), there is no maximum. Instead, the Grammys’ rules and guidelines booklet says nominations for the honor hinge on when “the artist had attained a breakthrough or prominence” — and it delegates that determination to a screening committee.
So Carpenter’s eligibility came down to whether the screening committee thought she had achieved prominence as of Sept. 15, 2023, the last day of the previous eligibility year. At that point, the highest she had ever climbed on the Billboard Hot 100 was a decidedly decaf No. 48, for “Skin” in February 2021. The committee decided that so-so showing did not constitute prominence, and that she made her big breakthrough in this eligibility year.
As for the other artists mentioned, the committee likewise decided that this was the year they achieved a breakthrough or prominence. The committee’s oft-stated aim is to be inclusive rather than exclusive, and they demonstrated that this year.
Many of the eligible artists have been nominated for new artist awards at other awards shows in the past year. Chappell Roan, who many see as this year’s Grammy front-runner in this category, won best new artist at the VMAs in September. Benson Boone, Shaboozey and Teddy Swims were on the initial list of nominees at the VMAs but they didn’t make the final three. They’re all eligible here.
Moroney, Shaboozey and Nate Smith are all nominees for new artist of the year at the CMAs on Nov. 20. They are eligible here.
4Batz, Bossman Dlow, October London and Sexxy Red were nominated for best new artist at the BET Awards and are eligible here. Bossman Dlow, Sexyy Red and Tommy Richman are nominated for best new artist at the upcoming BET Hip Hop Awards and are eligible here.
The Red Clay Strays won emerging act of the year at the Americana Music Honors and Awards in September. They’re also eligible here and will likely do well with Grammy voters.
RAYE, who won best new artist and swept many other awards at the Brit Awards in March, is likewise eligible here.
Other buzzy artists on the eligibility list, not already mentioned, include Artemas, Ateez, Barry Can’t Swim, beabadoobee, Central Cee, Ivan Cornejo, Dasha, Djo, Doechii, Sophie Ellis-Bextor, Feid, Fireboy DML, Fletcher, Flo Milli, 42 Dugg, Grupo Frontera, Kate Hudson, Knox, David Kushner, The Last Dinner Party, Le Sserafim, Carin Leon, LISA, Mannequin Pussy, Lizzy McAlpine, Michael Marcagi, Reneé Rapp, Rema, Maggie Rose, Royel Otis, Jojo Siwa, Myles Smith, Brittney Spencer, Tigirlily Gold, Myke Towers, Waxahatchee, Koe Wetzel, Remi Wolf and Young Miko.
Artists are allowed to appear on the entry list for best new artist three times, after which they are ruled ineligible for future consideration. That rule came into play this year with Tate McRae, who had been entered three previous times and thus could not compete again.
As it turns out, almost every artist who pundits thought might be eligible made the list. Two who did not are GloRilla and Anne Wilson, both of whom had previous Grammy nominations. That almost always results in disqualification.
The rules in this category have changed over the years as the Recording Academy has struggled to strike just the right balance: not too strict, not too lenient. In the past, the academy has sometimes disqualified artists for reasons that may now seem petty; take Whitney Houston, who had recorded a couple of duets prior to releasing her debut album and was therefore deemed ineligible, or singer-songwriter Richard Marx, who had contributed a song to a soundtrack. Other times, the academy has leaned too far in the other direction. Robert Goulet won in 1963, two years after he became a star in the Broadway musical Camelot. When Alessia Cara claimed the prize in 2018, it was nearly two years after her ballad “Here” hit the top five on the Hot 100.
Three past winners for best new artist — Crosby, Stills & Nash (who won in 1970), Jody Watley (1988) and Lauryn Hill (1999) — wouldn’t be eligible under today’s rules. David Crosby, Stephen Stills and Graham Nash were all already known for their work in previous groups, as were Watley (in Shalamar) and Hill (Fugees).
A total 323 artists are eligible for best new artist this year, down from 405 last year. This year’s tally is the lowest in this category in five years.
By allowing Carpenter to compete for best new artist this year, the Recording Academy has made the race more competitive and unpredictable. What might have been a shoo-in for Chappell Roan will now be a more spirited contest. Place your bets.
This year, acclaimed producer Jack Antonoff has had a direct hand in abetting artistic evolution at different levels of stardom — helping a longtime collaborator, Taylor Swift, shape-shift while staying on top of the pop world, as well as a rising artist, Sabrina Carpenter, secure her place on the A-list. For the latter, Antonoff produced […]
“People call it Brat Summer — it should be called ‘artist development summer,’ ” Jack Antonoff jokes on a mid-September afternoon, sitting on the rooftop of New York’s Electric Lady Studios and reflecting on the past few months in pop music. Charli XCX, whose brat album helped define the season, is an old friend of Antonoff’s — they co-headlined a 2015 tour called Charli and Jack Do America — and he points out that her 2024 success speaks to a larger movement of artists creating their own mainstream niches instead of latching on to trends.
“Sabrina [Carpenter], Charli and Chappell Roan — the three of them have had this shared experience of artists who have been crystallizing, and that’s where you get gems,” Antonoff says of a trio of pop talents who have dominated recent cultural discourse. “And that’s the story of being an artist. That’s true artist development. And it doesn’t matter where we are in tech or streaming or anything — the only way to win is to create your own language.”
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This year, Antonoff has had a direct hand in abetting artistic evolution at different levels of stardom — helping a longtime collaborator, Taylor Swift, shape-shift while staying on top of the pop world, as well as a rising artist, Carpenter, secure her place on the A-list. For the latter, Antonoff produced and co-wrote four songs on Carpenter’s new album, Short n’ Sweet — including her first Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper, “Please Please Please” — allowing the pop singer’s sardonic tics to shine on her way to arena-headliner status.
“No one deserves it more,” Antonoff says of the former Disney Channel star, who has released six albums by the age of 25. “Sabrina’s been quietly growing, and her albums have been getting more awesome, and she’s been honing her sound and performances. It’s not like she just popped onto the scene — this has been a decade of grinding toward it.”
During the week that Short n’ Sweet was released in August, Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department — on which Antonoff contributed to 16 songs across both of its volumes — spent its 15th week atop the Billboard 200, the longest run at No. 1 of any Swift project. Swift announced The Tortured Poets Department on the night of the 2024 Grammys, where previous full-length Midnights was awarded album of the year and she set the record for the most career wins in the category.
Amy Lombard
This year, Antonoff’s work with Swift and Carpenter — along with the self-titled fourth album from his long-running band, Bleachers, which arrived in March — could help him notch his sixth consecutive Grammy nomination for a producer of the year, non-classical, a category that he has won the past three years. If Antonoff takes home the trophy at the 2025 ceremony, he would set a record as the only four-peat in the 50-year history of the award.
“It would be a really [nice] resolve to a really special period,” says Antonoff’s manager, Jamie Oborne. “If it’s based on the work alone and the broad spectrum of work, I can’t imagine anyone else winning.”
Instead of functioning as a victory lap for Swift, The Tortured Poets Department was emotionally unguarded and knowingly messy, dividing critics and inspiring immediate fan devotion on its way to the biggest first-week debut of her career. “The best bodies of work are when people drill into the most personal, the most if-you-know-you-know kind of stuff,” Antonoff says. “I think the depth of [Tortured Poets Department] was surprising to people because I think people are constantly surprised when artists continue to be artists. You see so many people take the wrong turn and pander and become terrified of what they could lose. That’s the recipe for all the worst music, and I can only relate to people who don’t give a f–k. That next body of work — it doesn’t matter how big your audience is, it either comes from the depths of you or it doesn’t. And I love that album so much because the whole thing is so remarkably vulnerable.”
That ethos helps explain why, in the midst of a record-setting run as a pop studio whiz, Antonoff keeps pushing his creativity into unfamiliar areas. After producing the April soundtrack to the Apple TV+ fashion drama The New Look, which included Antonoff pals like Lana Del Rey and The 1975 covering early-20th-century songs, he also signed on to provide original music for a Broadway revival of Romeo + Juliet, which began previews in late September. More recently, he unveiled early plans for his Public Studios initiative, which, with the help of The Ally Coalition, will build studios in LGBTQ+ youth shelters and create a network of engineers to help train those interested in production — free of charge.
Jack Antonoff photographed September 10, 2024 at Electric Lady Studios in New York.
Amy Lombard
Antonoff also deconstructed the first Bleachers album, 2014’s Strange Desire, for a 10th-anniversary rework dubbed A Stranger Desired, released in September. And amid all of the projects, he foremost describes 2024 as “a touring year,” having led Bleachers on a global trek that will culminate with a headlining gig at Madison Square Garden in New York on Oct. 4.
He admits that he gets asked about his schedule by the people around him — friends curious about his balancing act and why he hasn’t zeroed in on the more successful pieces of his artistry. “My hunger to make things hasn’t changed since I was like 14,” Antonoff says with a chuckle, “but the context for people has changed.” When asked about the idea of winning four consecutive Grammys for producer of the year, Antonoff returns to the idea of artist development — that even when he’s receiving what he describes as “a huge honor,” his priority remains “protecting that zone” that allows him to grow as an artist and person.
“I really don’t let anything get in the way of that,” Antonoff says. “I keep my head down and I go back to work.”
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
Even with all the pop greats and breakout stars likely to be involved in the Grammys in February 2025, one icon seems certain to garner outsize attention: Beyoncé, who is both the winningest artist in the show’s history and a perennial cause célèbre for having never received the marquee Grammy, album of the year.
Bey’s presence on Music’s Biggest Night will be particularly fascinating, since her acclaimed country-Americana pivot set, Cowboy Carter, is at the center of a number of questions about genre — namely, who gets to decide what does and doesn’t constitute country music. Whether Cowboy Carter, its singles and its collaborators are recognized within the country categories will be a major subplot of the awards — one that got even thicker when Beyoncé was shut out entirely from the recently announced nominations for the Country Music Association (CMA) Awards.
But of course, the biggest Grammys question with Beyoncé remains: Will this finally be the year that she wins album of the year? The Recording Academy is under more pressure than ever over the answer, particularly after Jay-Z took the Grammys to task in a speech at the 2024 awards for having never bestowed its most prestigious honor upon his wife.
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Here, four Billboard staffers discuss the most pressing questions concerning Cowboy Carter and the Grammys it hopes to lasso in February.
Will there be a “Beyoncé effect” at the Grammys — recognition for the Black country artists she spotlights on Cowboy Carter?
Paul Grein (Awards Editor): “Blackbiird,” featuring Brittney Spencer, Reyna Roberts, Tanner Adell and Tiera Kennedy, and/or “Spaghettii,” featuring Linda Martell and Shaboozey, could be nominated for best country duo/group performance. The latter would give a nod to Martell, who in 1969 became the first Black woman to play the Grand Ole Opry. And Shaboozey is very likely to be nominated for best new artist and record of the year; “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has done so phenomenally well, it stands on its own.
Gail Mitchell (Executive Director, R&B/Hip-Hop): With Shaboozey — who guests on two Cowboy Carter tracks — recently notching his 12th week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” we’re already seeing the Beyoncé effect. It’s no surprise that he’s poised to score a nomination or two in the country categories and perhaps a best new artist or song and/or record of the year nod. I’m not sure the effect will extend to Grammy recognition for Cowboy Carter’s other featured Black country artists. However, there’s no discounting the heightened visibility that comes with a Beyoncé co-sign: Featured artists Martell, Spencer, Adell, Roberts, Kennedy and Willie Jones all gained significant catalog boosts after the album’s March release.
Melinda Newman (Executive Editor, West Coast/Nashville): Is this like the butterfly effect, where the ripples caused by Cowboy Carter may reverberate and cause seismic shifts down the line? The only artist likely to see any recognition is Shaboozey — and he probably would have gotten it without his Cowboy Carter appearance, given the massive success of “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” though Beyoncé’s seal of approval certainly doesn’t hurt. Besides Spencer, whose January album didn’t get the attention it deserved, most of the wonderfully talented Black women on “Blackbiird” didn’t release anything that popped during this year’s Grammy eligibility period.
Andrew Unterberger (Deputy Editor): I think somewhat unquestionably we will see major recognition for Shaboozey, who was introduced to much of mainstream America through his pair of Cowboy Carter guest appearances — but who also went on to have a bigger solo hit than anything on Cowboy Carter this year with his double-digit-week Hot 100 No. 1, “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” The other guest artists on the album will likely not be major contenders in the same way — best new artist nominations for Spencer and Adell are certainly both possible, but it’s a crowded field there this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both shut out.
At the last Grammys ceremony, Beyoncé’s husband, Jay-Z, accepted the Dr. Dre Global Impact Award with a speech in which he noted that she “has more Grammys than anyone and never won album of the year,” adding that “even by [the Recording Academy’s] own metrics… that doesn’t work.” Is it likely that academy members will remember his words when they vote — and will that help or hurt her chances?
Grein: Jay calling out the Grammys, right there on the Grammy stage, was a moment of high drama. It’ll be remembered — and I believe it will help her cause. Some context that Jay didn’t provide: Several other artists with large numbers of Grammys have never won album of the year, including Jay himself, with 24; Ye, also 24; Vince Gill, 22; and Bruce Springsteen, 20. And four other artists have equaled Bey’s 0-4 record as lead artists in album of the year — Ye; Kendrick Lamar; Lady Gaga, counting her second Tony Bennett collab; and Sting, counting one album with The Police. Also worth noting: The Grammys have gone out of their way to trumpet Bey’s record-setting accomplishments on the Grammy telecast, more than they have for any other artist. Bey is clearly due, even overdue, for an album of the year win. Jay’s comments put considerable pressure on voters to give her the award. Voters should be able to make these never-easy decisions without that kind of outside pressure, but here we are.
Mitchell: It’s been nearly a year since Jay-Z’s impactful comments, so I don’t think it’s likely they’ll be top of mind for most academy voters when they fill out their ballots. Voters are going to choose based on their perceptions of the project overall and its songs. Additionally, Cowboy Carter will be vying against a strong slate of contenders that will likely include Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Taylor Swift.
Newman: While some folks probably didn’t like being chastised that they weren’t voting “correctly,” a lot of voters likely weren’t even aware that Beyoncé had never won album of the year. Country voters are unlikely to nominate her over a core country artist, given how hard it is for country artists to get any recognition in the Big Four categories other than best new artist. If she does get nominated for album of the year, it will be because noncountry voters nominate her.
Unterberger: It did put the squeeze on them a little bit. While pop fans — and the Beyhive in particular — are more than familiar with the narratives around Beyoncé and her history of AOTY snubbery, members of the Recording Academy are more likely to get the message when one of the biggest recording artists in history publicly calls them out over it. But I don’t know if it’ll be enough to get Cowboy Carter over the top.
Beyoncé
Mason Poole
Some of the discourse surrounding Cowboy Carter upon its release had to do with whether this really was Beyoncé’s “country album” in the first place. How is the album likely to be treated categorywise, and should we expect the Nashville/country community to show its support on the ballot?
Grein: When the album was released, Beyoncé said, “This ain’t a Country album. This is a ‘Beyoncé’ album.” There probably will be discussion in the screening committee room about which genre album category it should compete in — best country album or best pop vocal album. There was discussion about whether her last album, Renaissance, should be slotted in best pop vocal album or best dance/electronic album. It was classified as dance/electronic and won. I suspect the academy will again follow Beyoncé’s wishes — whatever they may be — in making that call.
It’s not a good sign that the CMA passed over Cowboy Carter in its recently announced nominations, but it’s not necessarily fatal, either. The Chicks’ Taking the Long Way and its single “Not Ready To Make Nice” were passed over for CMA nods in 2006, but went on to win Grammys for album, record and song of the year, as well as two country-specific awards. And even if the Nashville/country community is mixed on Bey’s album, she can garner enough support from other sectors of the academy to win album of the year.
Mitchell: Can Beyoncé earn her fifth album of the year nomination as well as a ninth record of the year nod — a category she’s also never won — and fifth song of the year nomination? Yes, given that these are among the six general-field categories in which all eligible members can vote. But if that comes to pass, can she finally win the coveted album of the year? The optimist in me hopes so, considering Cowboy Carter’s commercial success — it was Beyoncé’s eighth Billboard 200 No. 1 — and the chart inroads it made — she’s the first Black woman to lead Top Country Albums. But what are supposed to truly count are Beyoncé’s artistic and cultural accomplishments — and that’s when the cynical realist in me says, “Hold on.” The album scored zero nominations for the upcoming CMA Awards. And there’s also past history: The academy’s country committee rejected Bey’s “Daddy Lessons” in 2016. It’s not a slam dunk that she will earn nods in the country categories. Bey’s team might even be considering submissions in the Americana categories. Despite concerted efforts in Nashville to level the country playing field, it remains an uphill push for women artists, especially women of color.
Newman: Beyoncé receiving no CMA Award nominations in some ways gives the country community permission to continue to ignore her work in country categories. Plus, given that voters are only allowed to vote in three fields, most noncountry voters aren’t going to spend a vote for her in the country categories. However, plenty of country voters are upset she was not nominated for any CMAs and very well may put her forward. Beyoncé herself said this was not a country album — but whether it’s nominated for best country album feels like it could go either way. Still, Cowboy Carter tracks like “Texas Hold ’Em” or her remake of Dolly Parton’s “Jolene” have better shots at getting country nominations than the album itself.
Unterberger: If the CMA Awards are any indication, Bey might be in a little bit of trouble there. She didn’t receive a single nomination for this year’s awards, while Post Malone, another pop star interloper doing country this year — but one who promoted the set heavily in Nashville and recorded it with many of its biggest stars — secured four, which sent a pretty loud message about the embrace, or lack thereof, of Cowboy Carter in Music Row. I don’t necessarily see that message as racially motivated, but I think the country community has always been very insular and self-celebratory, and when an outsider comes along insistent on doing country their own way, without specifically enlisting the community’s active participation and support, they are quickly othered and often ultimately ignored. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zach Bryan gets shut out in the country categories this year, despite his consistent genre success, for similar reasons.
Cowboy Carter’s commercial performance and critical reception weren’t entirely parallel. How could both affect its nomination chances?
Grein: It did well enough both critically and commercially to be nominated. The album topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks and spawned three top 10 hits on the Hot 100 — the most from any of her albums since I Am… Sasha Fierce, which spawned four. If Cowboy Carter isn’t nominated, it won’t be because it didn’t do well enough.
Mitchell: Commercial performance isn’t supposed to be the main criteria for the peer-voted Grammys. And neither is critical reception, even though both undoubtedly factor somewhat in voter decisions. Cowboy Carter outpaced Renaissance commercially, 407,000 vs. 332,000 equivalent album units, according to Luminate, during their respective biggest streaming weeks. But those doing the streaming aren’t necessarily doing the voting. While some country die-hards didn’t heartily welcome her stepping across the aisle, Cowboy Carter garnered praise like Renaissance and Lemonade before it. Those albums won Grammys in the dance and R&B fields, but none of their general-field nominations — including album of the year. Perhaps the tides will shift perceptibly this year in the wake of the academy recently inviting more than 3,000 music professionals — many of them young, women and/or people of color — to become voting members.
Newman: In recent years, Grammy voters have leaned into commercial albums more than they used to, even though these are awards for artistic merit, not commercial success. That may hurt Cowboy Carter, which got off to a strong commercial start — topping the Billboard 200, as well as Billboard’s Top Country Albums and Americana/Folk Albums charts — before dropping off quickly. Still, Cowboy Carter is seen as a culturally significant album and one that is an important, yet very palatable, lesson about the essential role of Black artists in country music’s history — which may carry some weight among voters.
Unterberger: They might not have been exactly parallel, but I think they were close enough. Cowboy Carter debuted at No. 1 with the year’s biggest non-Taylor Swift first week, and it generated a legitimate No. 1 hit in the culture-capturing “Texas Hold ’Em.” Neither had quite the commercial longevity her fans and supporters might’ve hoped for — “Texas Hold ’Em” fell off the Hot 100 after 20 weeks, and Cowboy Carter failed to generate a real second hit and is currently ranking in the lower half of the Billboard 200 — but both were successful enough that I don’t think any voter could look at Cowboy Carter and go, “Yeah, sure, it got good reviews, but did anyone actually listen to it?” It’s still one of the year’s major pop releases by any measure.
Cowboy Carter isn’t the only foray into country by an ostensibly “noncountry” artist eligible for big Grammy wins this year — there’s also Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion. Are Post and Bey likely to get the kind of Big Four attention that has eluded core country artists in recent years — and who are the artists who could get the same kind of consideration this year?
Grein: I’d be shocked if Beyoncé wasn’t up for album of the year. Post also has a very good chance at a nod. He’s been nominated three times in the category, and F-1 Trillion was a very successful departure for him. The country community appreciated that he put in the time to get to know them and their ways. The academy has been aggressive in recent years about expanding and diversifying its membership, but it hasn’t put that same energy into expanding its Nashville membership. That reflects in the voting. The last country album to be nominated for album of the year was Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour six years ago, which won. As it happens, Musgraves is vying for an album of the year nod again with this year’s Deeper Well. Chris Stapleton, who was nominated in 2015 for Traveller, could also be nominated this year with Higher. Lainey Wilson — the reigning Grammy winner for best country album, for her Bell Bottom Country — is another possibility, for Whirlwind. But that would make five country albums in the mix. We’ve never had more than one country album nominated in any one year. They’re not all going to make it.
Mitchell: It will be interesting to see how Post — a fellow country outlier who partnered with Beyoncé on Cowboy Carter’s “Levii’s Jeans” — fares in the Grammy derby. Judging by the reception and success he’s lassoed with several F-1 Trillion singles, including “I Had Some Help” with country superstar Morgan Wallen, Post has made a smooth transition into this new genre. So it’s not far-fetched that he’ll be competing against Beyoncé and Swift, with whom he partnered on her hit “Fortnight,” in the album, song and record of the year categories that have eluded core country artists. And Wallen could possibly earn another nod and his first Grammy win with “I Had Some Help.” As the genre continues to enjoy its mainstream renaissance, perhaps Wilson, Stapleton and other country stars will find themselves breaking out of the genre-specific corral and charging into the big show.
Newman: F-1 Trillion is a lock for a best country album contender, as is Stapleton’s Higher, and both could land in the final eight for the all-genre album of the year category, even though mainstream voters tend to ignore country. Cowboy Carter’s fate feels a bit fuzzy only because Bey, who has been nominated in this category four times before, faces such strong competition from the likes of Carpenter, Swift, Eilish, Roan and Grande.
Unterberger: I would expect to see both Beyoncé and Post scattered across the major categories — though Post may be hurt a little by his set’s signature hit, “I Had Some Help,” being a collaboration with Morgan Wallen, whose recent history of being ignored by the Grammys indicates his presence still makes the Recording Academy a little squeamish. Aside from them, Zach Bryan’s new The Great American Bar Scene didn’t quite get the attention last year’s self-titled set did, but its “Pink Skies” single has done very well and could be a fringe song of the year contender. If the academy is still willing to treat Megan Moroney as a new artist, she could certainly be a nominee for best new artist. And while he might be a long shot, I’m holding out hope that Luke Combs can parlay the Grammy attention he got last year for his “Fast Car” performance — alongside original artist Tracy Chapman — into a song of the year nod for the thunderous “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from the highly successful Twisters: The Album.
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
A celebratory mood usually prevails on Grammy night. Artists dance to their fellow stars’ rousing performances; epic speeches abound; cameras catch meme-worthy moments. And when it comes to the songs most likely to win trophies, diss tracks aren’t what come to mind.
But this year, there’s Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” — the savage climax of his epic beef this spring with Drake, which despite its barbed bars became an ebullient summer anthem, blaring through car speakers and soundtracking block parties and barbecues. It’s also a contender for song and record of the year nominations — and if it wins on Grammy night, it could well bring that same energy to the evening’s festivities.
Recording Academy president/CEO Harvey Mason Jr. admitted as much in June, a few weeks after the song was released. “It’s a hot record,” he told TMZ. “It’s amazing artistry, great writing. The talent on that record is incredible. And you got artists that have been nominated before, and Kendrick has been successful with the organization, so I don’t see any reason why it couldn’t be.”
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A lyrical masterpiece, “Not Like Us” shattered streaming records and became Lamar’s fourth No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. And notwithstanding its severe allegations against Drake (“Tryna strike a chord and it’s probably A-Minor”), it is indeed Grammy-eligible.
“I think the voting members of the academy appreciate greatness,” Mason added in June. “They appreciate what’s hot, what’s going on. That’s a relevant record that’s impacting on so many levels. So much creativity and talent. I like to believe that the academy members recognize that and vote appropriately.”
If “Not Like Us” earns major nominations, it certainly wouldn’t be without precedent. In 2015, Drake’s “Back to Back,” a diss track aimed at Meek Mill, was nominated for best rap performance (in a now-ironic turn of events, he lost to Lamar’s “Alright”). In 1992, LL COOL J and Kool Moe Dee engaged in a heated battle, with the former emerging victorious after he released “Mama Said Knock You Out” — which then won the Grammy for best rap solo performance.
The Grammys have rewarded artists from outside hip-hop for their subtle (or not-so-subtle) digs, too. In late 2002, Justin Timberlake released his second solo single, “Cry Me a River,” a pointed chronicle of a breakup calling out an ex for cheating, with a music video starring a dead ringer for Timberlake’s own high-profile ex, Britney Spears. (In her 2023 memoir, Spears finally told her side of the story, accusing him of cheating on her multiple times.) At the 2004 ceremony, “Cry Me a River” won Timberlake the Grammy for best male pop vocal performance, edging out veteran competitors like Sting and Michael McDonald.
In some cases, pop smashes that clearly signal their diss intentions in their titles have also garnered Grammy attention. Taylor Swift’s 2014 hit “Bad Blood” — whose remix happened to feature Lamar — was allegedly inspired by her fractured friendship with Katy Perry. The song topped the Hot 100 and won best music video at the 2016 Grammys. Gwen Stefani has said that when Courtney Love called her a “cheerleader” in a 2004 interview, it inspired her classic “Hollaback Girl,” which was then nominated for best female pop vocal performance, though it ultimately lost to Kelly Clarkson’s “Since U Been Gone.”
While “Not Like Us” proved decisive in Lamar and Drake’s long-winded feud, and seems the likeliest award contender of the four dis tracks he released within one month, sources tell Billboard it might not be the only one to garner Grammy attention: The rap categories may also recognize his “Euphoria.” For Lamar — a 17-time Grammy winner who has had years where he has won multiple awards in one night — it doesn’t seem out of the question. As for Drake — who himself has five Grammys, including for wins where he bested Lamar — the rapper has had a fraught relationship with the awards of late, even famously boycotting the Grammys following The Weeknd’s snub in 2022. And cultural momentum appears to be on Lamar’s side — meaning that come February, Compton could enjoy yet another victory lap.
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
After the breakthrough year she has had, Sabrina Carpenter is likely to contend in multiple categories when Grammy nominations are announced Nov. 8. Her latest studio project, Short n’ Sweet, is considered a shoo-in for a best pop vocal album nod and could potentially be up for album of the year. And she could even land a nomination for best new artist — despite Short n’ Sweet being her sixth full-length.
How can an artist who has released six albums be in the conversation for best new artist? Because, while the Grammys set a minimum number of releases an artist must have to qualify in this category (five singles/tracks or one album), there is no maximum. Instead, the Grammys’ rules and guidelines booklet says nominations for the honor hinge on when “the artist had attained a breakthrough or prominence” — and it delegates that determination to a screening committee.
So Carpenter’s potential nomination comes down to whether the screening committee thinks she had achieved prominence as of Sept. 15, 2023, the last day of the previous eligibility year. At that point, the highest she had ever climbed on the Billboard Hot 100 was a decidedly decaf No. 48, for “Skin” in February 2021. She performed on the MTV Video Music Awards’ preshow on Sept. 12, 2023. (This year, by contrast, her medley of three hits that had each reached the top three on the Hot 100 was a highlight of the main show.)
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Megan Moroney is another not-quite-so-new artist whom the screening committee will likely discuss at length. She had a No. 30 hit on the Hot 100 in May 2023 with “Tennessee Orange,” and her popularity has continued to build since: In May 2024, she won new female artist of the year at the Academy of Country Music Awards.
Other top contenders in the category this year, including Chappell Roan, Benson Boone, Shaboozey, Teddy Swims, Sexyy Red and Reneé Rapp, more clearly fit the best new artist criteria the Grammys outline.
The rules in this category have changed over the years as the Recording Academy has struggled to strike just the right balance: not too strict, not too lenient. In the past, the academy has sometimes disqualified artists for reasons that may now seem petty; take Whitney Houston, who had recorded a couple of duets prior to releasing her debut album and was therefore deemed ineligible, or singer-songwriter Richard Marx, who had contributed a song to a soundtrack. Other times, the academy has leaned too far in the other direction. Robert Goulet won in 1963, two years after he became a star in the Broadway musical Camelot. When Alessia Cara claimed the prize in 2018, it was nearly two years after her ballad “Here” hit the top five on the Hot 100.
Three past winners for best new artist — Crosby, Stills & Nash (who won in 1970), Jody Watley (1988) and Lauryn Hill (1999) — wouldn’t be eligible under today’s rules. David Crosby, Stephen Stills and Graham Nash were all already known for their work in previous groups, as were Watley (in Shalamar) and Hill (Fugees).
Perhaps the academy should have just named the award “best new or developing artist” or “best breakthrough artist” to skirt the issue of whether these talents were truly new, but given the marquee award’s notoriety, such a change is now unlikely. Voters are probably stuck with best new artist — along with the yearly debates over who should and shouldn’t qualify for it.
And if Carpenter isn’t just nominated but steps onto the stage on Grammy night to accept the award, well, it won’t be without precedent. In 2001, Shelby Lynne won the accolade — precisely six albums into her career.
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
