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By almost every metric, the music business in 2023 has been defined by Taylor Swift and Morgan Wallen. Collectively, they have led the Billboard 200 and the Hot 100 for 23 of the 52 weeks of the year, with Swift topping Billboard’s year-end Top Artists chart and Wallen ruling both the year-end Billboard 200 Albums and Hot 100 Songs charts with One Thing at a Time and “Last Night,” respectively.

Combined, the two recording artists have an astounding 2.49% in overall U.S. album consumption unit market share, according to Luminate. (Year-to-year percentages are based on data from Dec. 29, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.) Their domination underscores a year of explosive growth for country — of the two rerecorded albums Swift released in 2023, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) qualified in the genre — which is up 21.8% year over year. That’s almost double the 12.6% year-to-year growth of recorded music overall for the same period and nearly five times the 4.8% increase the genre had from 2021 to 2022.

Country music accounted for 8.40% of the recorded-music market in 2023, up from 7.76% the year prior — and Swift and Wallen weren’t the only acts fueling those gains. Hit albums by Zach Bryan, Luke Combs and Bailey Zimmerman helped country’s current market share — defined as releases that arrived within the past 18 months — surge from 7.97% to 10.37% year over year, a 30% gain. And while that’s only good enough for third place when the genres are ranked by current market share, No. 1 hip-hop and No. 2 pop both fell year over year: the former from 26.72 % to 22.32%, the latter from 13.07% to 11.13%.

Country’s growth almost outstripped Latin music’s strides. Which isn’t to say Latin had a down year — the genre grew 21.9% year over year, the third-highest mark in the industry, largely due to the mainstream success of such new acts as Peso Pluma and Eslabon Armado, and its volume growth (13.5 million units year over year) bested that of pop (11.6 million). In 2021, Latin’s share of the overall industry was 6.33%; in 2023 that number has jumped to 6.86%, and its 37.8 billion on-demand streams for current releases is the third-highest among genres.

R&B/Hip-Hop Slips Again

R&B/hip-hop remains firmly entrenched as the No. 1 U.S. genre with 25.27% of the market, largely because of its outsize percentage of on-demand streams. (The genre accounts for more than one in four streams.) But some metrics indicate that hip-hop’s dominance — it commanded nearly 30% of the overall market in 2020 — may be waning.

The genre’s market share has dipped every year since that 2020 peak, as has its share of on-demand streams, which stood at 30.11% in 2021 and is now at 26.63%. Current consumption of R&B/hip-hop has also slipped 7.4% from 2022 to 2023 and is down in every format for the same period — including the genre’s strong suit, streams, which dropped 7.0% to 93.2 billion. Despite No. 1 Billboard 200 releases from Travis Scott, Drake and Rod Wave, among others, hip-hop albums have continued to lose share since the midyear headlines that the genre had not produced any full-length chart-toppers. That said, its 93.2 billion current streams is more than double the 38.8 billion racked up by 2023’s second-place genre, pop, which sustained overall growth this year. And while R&B/hip-hop’s overall growth, at 5.9%, was 10th among genres, it finished third on that metric in overall volume, adding 15.6 million equivalent album units over last year, behind only rock and country.

Tipping The Sales Scales

While overall album sales have seesawed over the last few years, they have shown growth this year — up 5.2% after a down 2022. Driving sales once again is rock, which has a monumentally large share of the market: 41.47% of all album sales and 43.36% of physical sales. Those numbers are larger than the next four genres — R&B/hip-hop, pop, country and World music, in that order — combined and largely stem from immense catalog sales. Rock sales account for 47.50% of the entire catalog category — defined as music older than 18 months — a 4.0% year-over-year increase. Rock catalog album sales totaled 30.8 million units in 2023, more than the combined sales — current and catalog — of the next two genres, pop and R&B/hip-hop.

Latin music’s album sales growth is the inverse of rock. With just 0.57% of overall album sales in 2023, the genre ranks 14th out of the 15 core genres tracked by Luminate — lower than blues, jazz, classical and holiday/seasonal. Only new age placed below it.

Like hip-hop, Latin’s huge overall growth comes mostly from on-demand audio streams, but also a big chunk of the on-demand video streaming market, 10.0%, which is larger than its 6.86% overall market share. Pop is the only other genre on this chart where its market share of on-demand video streams exceeds its overall percentage by that much: 17.35% to 12.33%.

World Music’s Gains

Latin is just one genre of non-English-­language music that occupies more and more of the mainstream U.S. music market. The umbrella genre of World music, which includes K-pop and Afrobeats, among other styles, has grown massively. In 2019, World music accounted for 1.69% of the overall industry; in 2023, that’s up to 2.73%, a 35.3% jump. That growth is most evident when looking at album sales. World music captured 6.93% of the market this year, with physical sales totaling 7.96% of that figure. The bulk of those sales is attributable to K-pop, which surged 88.8% year over year. Afrobeats also had a big impact on the genre, particularly in on-demand streaming, where it was up 54.3% year over year.

Titanic Taylor

Swift’s dominance of music and popular culture this year has been well documented. But how big is she in genre terms? With 18.89 million in album consumption units so far this year, her industry market share is 1.79%. If Swift was her own genre, she’d rank at No. 9 based on the data used here — just a few thousand units shy of Christian/gospel’s 1.76% market share and ahead of children music’s 1.11%. In 2023, Taylor Swift is bigger than jazz.

At the midyear mark of 2023, there’s one over-arching theme: so far, it’s the year of Morgan Wallen. The artist’s album One Thing At a Time is the most-consumed album of the year so far by far, racking up 3.312 million equivalent album units in the U.S. since its March release, while its single “Last Night” gobbled up the most U.S. on-demand audio streams of the year so far, with 588.7 million.

That helps explain a huge leap in country music market share so far this year, with the genre growing to 8.36% of the U.S. market, from 7.83% at the halfway point last year. Overall, in terms of current consumption units — those derived from albums released within the past 18 months — country music increased by 4.5 million equivalent album units over the same period in 2022, the highest among all 15 genres tracked by Luminate in 2023 so far.

But that’s just one of the big takeaways derived from combing through the data six months into this year. Here are four other observations from the first half of 2023.

Why is Rock so big? Catalog.

Overall, rock has grown most of any genre year over year in consumption units, with 11.2 million more units in 2023 over 2022. That growth, however, is almost entirely from catalog — 10.3 million of it, compared to 900,000 units of growth from current releases. It’s the second-largest growth metric among genres in terms of catalog, just behind R&B/hip-hop in raw numbers (11.2 million), though because R&B/hip-hop actually declined in current releases (more on that later), rock saw the biggest overall growth in unit terms.

It’s a testament to the enduring value that exists in classic rock recordings — and a reason those catalogs continue to be valued, bought and sold at such high figures — and helps explain why it still represents such a large part of the market, despite rock not generally being represented in the highest echelons of the charts. Rock’s catalog share of 23.31% is behind R&B/hip-hop’s 27.15% in the rankings, but is much higher than that of pop (12.91%) and country (7.69%), the next two genres in share.

Courtesy Photo

Consider the rankings in terms of current share: rock (10.32%) slides to third place, behind pop (10.69%) and barely ahead of country (10.16%), with Latin coming in fifth at 7.84%. And its current unit growth year over year of 900,000 is significantly behind country (4.5 million), world music (3.3 million) and Latin (2.5 million), although at least it’s still growing, while R&B/hip-hop and pop is not.

R&B/Hip-Hop: The Elephant In the Room

The drumbeat has been growing louder over the past year when it comes to what, exactly, is going on with R&B/hip-hop from a market share perspective. But despite concern that the genres’ grip on the public consciousness is getting diluted, a few things have remained consistent: it remained the largest genre in consumption units, it was still growing the most in raw numbers (if not percentage-wise), and R&B and hip-hop artists were continuously topping the charts dictating the culture.

Some of that dominance, however, has begun to slip. There is the biggest one — in the first half of the year, no hip-hop album had yet topped the Billboard 200, a distinction that finally ended in the first week of the third quarter with Lil Uzi Vert’s Pink Tape this week. And in terms of year over year unit growth, R&B/hip-hop slipped to second at 13.01% of the market’s growth, behind rock (17.71%) and just ahead of country (12.35%). And as consumption overall grew by 13.4%, R&B/hip-hop remained stagnant at 6.3% — the same mark it had at the midway point of last year. Still, it’s been a weird year; R&B/hip-hop actually accumulated more growth in raw units in the first half of 2023 (8.3 million) than in the first half of 2022 (7.8 million).

Yet there are signs for concern — and not necessarily just because of gains in other genres. R&B/hip-hop’s overall market share has slipped from 27.64% halfway through 2022 to 25.92% halfway through 2023, more than a point and a half. Its share of on-demand streaming has dropped from 29.39% to 27.31% — more than two percentage points. Overall album sales growth — huge for rock (45.85%) and pop (30.99%) — was just 2.53%, though growth at all in that metric is still positive. Even more concerning are its current numbers, which we’ll get to in a second. So, with R&B/hip-hop’s market share at its lowest point since 2018, is it just a cyclical, first-half blip due to domination by the likes of Morgan Wallen and Taylor Swift so far this year? Or something deeper?

Current Share Tells the Story of the First Half

The three genres that experienced the biggest growth over the first half of 2023 also tell the story of the first six months of the year, and they’re undeniable on several metrics. In terms of overall percentage growth year over year, World Music — which encompasses ex-U.S. genres like K-Pop and Afrobeats — was up 42.5%; Latin was up 21.9%; and Country was up 21.1%. Each managed to grow their overall share of the market significantly over the same period last year: Country, the fourth-biggest genre, rose from 7.83% to 8.36%; Latin, in fifth, grew from 6.25% to 6.72%; World, in seventh, grew from 2.20% to 2.76%. In comparison, the top three genres — R&B/Hip-Hop, Rock and Pop, in that order — all ceded share of the market at least somewhat year over year.

Looking at the current share illustrates where those gains came from. The country genre came in 4.5 million units higher than at the same point in 2022, boosting its current share from 7.98% to 10.16%. world music added 3.3 million units, vaulting over dance/electronic into sixth with a 5.22% share of the current market, up from 3.29% at this time last year. And Latin added 2.5 million units over last year’s total, increasing from 6.86% to 7.84% this year.

The flip side of that is the current percentage drops from the other leading genres. Current R&B/hip-hop share fell from 27.50% halfway through 2022 to 22.62% this year, an almost 5% decline, and dropped 8.0% in consumption units year over year. Pop slid from 12.87% to 10.69% in share, dropping 7.1% in consumption units year over year. Rock’s slip in share was more modest (10.83% to 10.32%), but also still fell, though its unit count actually grew (the slide in share is due to larger gains elsewhere). It’s a reflection of how the first half of the year has gone in terms of impactful releases in the market.

World Music’s Growth Isn’t Slowing Down

World music now accounts for 2.76% of the overall market in the U.S., up from 2.20% at the midway point last year. It’s not huge, but by percentage, it’s far and away the fastest-growing genre (up 42.5% year over year) in the industry; by raw consumption unit growth, it’s sixth-highest, having increased by 4.4 million units over its midyear 2022 mark. And it’s up by huge percentages in just about every metric: overall album sales (71.3%), physical album sales (76.4%) and on-demand streaming (38.2%) growth all far outstrip the industry overall.

Some of this is just a function of how percentages work: a smaller number that’s growing quickly will naturally have a higher percentage growth than a larger number that, while growing at a larger volume, is growing at a slower rate. But these percentages continuing getting higher, not smaller: in 2020, it grew 8.0% over 2019; in 2021, the metric was 18.9%; in 2022, it was 26.4%. From the first half of 2019 through the first half of 2023, world music is up 131.3%.

So far this year over midway through 2022, K-pop consumption is up 154.9%, and Afrobeats consumption is up 143.8%. They’re still small in terms of actual consumption numbers — K-pop’s numbers compare most directly to those of children’s music for the first half of the year, for example — but they no longer exist in the realm of the potential. The industry has spent the past few years pouring money and resources into these areas and hoping to boost these artists in the States. The metrics are no longer about what the future may look like: it’s here now.

In retrospect, 2022 will be remembered as the year of Bad Bunny. And while his album Un Verano Sin Ti dominated much of the year after its May 6 release, the boost that it gave to Latin music’s share of the overall market — with the highest growth in percentage year over year of any genre, going from 5.39% in 2021 to 6.33% in 2022, an increase of 28.8% — is not simply a one album, or even one year, phenomenon.

Between 2020 and 2022, Latin music grew 55.29% in album consumption in the U.S., according to Luminate, far outstripping the overall industry’s 21.61%, as well as the growth of the four biggest genres in the U.S. over that time: R&B/hip-hop (12.17%), rock (22.28%), pop (20.64%) and country (19.22%). And Latin isn’t alone: World Music has also made tremendous strides over that time period, growing 47.67% from 2020 through 2022 on the Stateside growth of K-Pop and Afrobeats, among other ex-U.S. genres, and up 25.8% in 2022 over 2021. Both genres have seen over 20% growth in on-demand audio streams dating back to 2019, while the overall industry has grown in that sector in the mid-teens each year during that time.

Those are two of just four genres (of the 15 tracked by Luminate) that grew at a faster rate than the overall music industry in 2022, which increased consumption 9.2% year over year. (The other two were children’s music, at 30.0%, and dance/electronic, at 11.7%; new age grew essentially in line with the business). And it speaks to how significant that growth has been, and could continue to be moving forward as the business becomes increasingly more global.

With 2023 fully underway, here are four more trends to watch this year:

How Big Is a Hit?

Children’s music (1.38%) overtook holiday music (1.26%) as the ninth-biggest genre in the U.S. this year due to the runaway success of Encanto, which helped boost the genre by 30% in consumption year over year (35.5% in on-demand streams). How significant was the effect of that hit? Growth for the genre year over year was 6.7% in 2020, and actually declined -3.7% in 2021, with on-demand streaming dropping 2.8% in each of those years. The growth is almost certainly unsustainable, but it shows the value of a surprise mainstream hit. For a related analog, comedy was the only genre to actually decline year over year, due to the sector coming back down to earth after the huge gains from Bo Burnham’s Inside (The Songs) album in 2021. From 2020 to 2021, overall comedy consumption ballooned 27.3%, with total on-demand streams growing 28.4%; those numbers fell to -11.3% and -5.0% in 2022, as the effect of the album receded.

Major Genres Shrinking in Share

As a statement of fact, year over year the four biggest, most dominant genres in the U.S. all declined in terms of their share of the overall market: R&B/hip-hop (from 27.72% in 2021 to 26.82% in 2022), rock (20.01% in 2021 to 19.95% in 2022), pop (13.05% in 2021 to 12.68% in 2022) and country (8.09% in 2021 to 7.76% in 2022). But there are a few ways of looking at that.

The first is that, when a genre is as dominant as R&B/hip-hop, for example, maintaining the same percentage growth gets harder every year. And the growth is still huge: the top four genres accounted for 67.21% of the market in 2022, even if down slightly from the 68.87% they held in 2021, and just shy of 50% of the gains year over year. And rock and R&B/hip-hop saw the two biggest increases in raw consumption numbers over 2021, with the former claiming 19.37% of the growth in 2022 over the year prior and the latter 17.13% of it.

The other way to look at it is that the market is, slowly but steadily, diversifying. Latin, the fifth-biggest genre in the country, was third in percentage of growth in the market, up 16.38% year over year; less than 1 million units separated its increase from R&B/hip-hop’s in 2022. Pop was fourth (8.67% of industry growth), but world music — the seventh-biggest genre overall — claimed the fifth-highest share of the market’s growth, at 5.53% year over year. And country, which claimed 4.17% of the growth, was run a close race by Dance/Electronic, at 4.14%. Just three years ago, in 2020, Latin made up 4.95% of the overall market and World Music 1.88%. That doesn’t seem like regular fluctuation, but a true growth trend.

R&B/Hip-Hop Report

Over the last few years, there has been an accepted fact of the marketplace: In a streaming world that reflects not just what people are buying, but what people are continuing to stream and listen to, R&B/hip-hop dominates. That is still, unquestionably, the case. But lately there has been some hand-wringing about the slowing growth of the genre and what that could mean for the broader marketplace, a fair question for others to answer.

Here are some facts: R&B/hip-hop is now 26.82% of consumption. It’s been growing consistently — up around 6% per year the last few years — though not as much as the marketplace overall for several years now percentage-wise. And its share of total on-demand streams dropped from 30.11% in 2021 to 28.61% in 2022. In raw numbers it’s still growing massively, though, second only to rock in share of the industry’s total unit growth in 2022. And compared to 2017 — the year that Luminate predecessor Nielsen first declared that R&B/hip-hop had become the biggest genre in the industry — it still claims a higher share of the market. So while it displays a higher variance year to year than some other genres, the sky isn’t falling just yet.

R&B/Hip-Hop Share of Consumption By Year:2017: 24.52%2018: 25.94%2019: 28.62%2020: 29.07%2021: 27.72%2022: 26.82%

Country Streaming Sputters, Rock’s Resilience

Country’s streaming growth is slowing down. After big gains in audio on-demand streaming the past two years (22.1% in 2020 and 16.5% in 2021) as more of its audience began to embrace the format, that figure slipped below the audio streaming growth of the overall industry in 2022, 11.1% vs. 12.2%, respectively. And total on-demand Country streaming (audio plus video) grew at 9.8%, compared to 12.2% for the overall industry. (Yes, overall and audio on-demand streaming grew at the same rate.) That isn’t the end of the world — R&B/hip-hop on-demand audio streaming has grown less than the overall market percentage-wise in the past few years, though its raw numbers are still massive — but it’s worth noting that the growth is slowing year over year after outpacing the market recently, and its percentage of the growth in on-demand streaming in 2022 was just 6.01%, by far the lowest of the five biggest genres. In total consumption, country grew just 4.8%, slightly over half the rate of growth of the overall industry (9.2%), with its share of the market slipping from 8.09% in 2021 to 7.76% in 2022.

It’s notable compared to the fortunes of rock music. For all the “Rock Is Dead” talk, the format is essentially keeping pace with industry trends overall (up 9.0% in consumption, 14.3% in on-demand streams) and actually grew its share of overall on-demand streaming year over year, from 16.30% in 2021 to 16.62% in 2022, while continuing to flat-out dominate in sales (43% of the market). Again, rock was the genre that showed the most growth in 2022 over 2021: at 19.37%, it outpaced R&B/hip-hop (17.13%) and Latin (16.38%) for the biggest share of growth year over year.