five burning questions
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Over a decade and a half into her career as a Billboard hitmaker, Taylor Swift is currently enjoying her best week ever on the charts.
Her Midnights album makes history this week, officially moving 1.578 million equivalent album units in its debut frame — the best opening bow not just for any Swift album, but for any album released in the past 20 years outside of Adele’s 25. And over on the Hot 100, Midnights becomes the first album (and Swift the first artist) to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 simultaneously, led by lead single “Anti-Hero” at No. 1.
Why is Taylor Swift posting these jaw-dropping numbers this deep into her career? And will Midnights be remembered by fans as a career high for her? Billboard writers answer these questions and more below.
1. Taylor Swift makes a historic showing on both the albums and songs fronts this week, moving 1.5 million units of her Midnights album — most of her career and most for any non-Adele artist of the last 20 years — while also becoming the first artist ever to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 simultaneously. Which, in your mind, is the more impressive achievement of the two?
Katie Atkinson: They’re both massive, but I’m going to have to go with occupying the full Hot 100 top 10. Drake’s come close, holding nine of the 10 spots, but all 10 is a special kind of domination. It’s obviously a symptom of the way we consume music and the way we track listening these days – it’s a fun game to think about what other artists might have held those top 10 spots at once if streaming were around in earlier eras – but being able to plant her flag as the first artist to ever achieve the feat is something no one can take away from her.
Hannah Dailey: The simultaneous top 10 spots. As mind-bogglingly impressive as her sales record is, there’s something about the recognition that the Hot 100 gives an artist that feels even more special. The 1.5 million units shows that Swifties are showing out for their favorite artist, but the chart proves that she pretty much has the whole world listening, too.
Jason Lipshutz: Somehow, becoming the first artist to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 — a singular feat in the chart’s 64-year history — is only the second most impressive chart achievement by Taylor Swift this week. Moving 1.5 million units of an album in a single week didn’t seem like something that could ever happen again, especially after Adele’s 30 fell short of the seven-figure mark last fall. Not only did Swift score the biggest album debut in nearly seven years, she also set a new career best with Midnights — mind-boggling stuff, considering how many enormous eras already precede her.
Joe Lynch: A cogent point could be made either way, but I’m gonna say the 1.5 milli first week. At this point in this music industry, it’s not so much “who can sell a million copies in one week?” but “can anyone sell a million copies in one week?”. I might be overstating it (obviously, Adele exists) but even coming close to the 1M mark is something 99% of pop stars simply cannot do in 2022. The fact that Taylor sailed past it – and in physical sales, too – is a massive accomplishment.
Andrew Unterberger: The Hot 100 record is more historic — and very literally unbeatable — but the album units are more impressive. I mean, we just had Drake secure nine of the top 10 a year ago; we haven’t seen anyone else even get within half a million of that first-week number this decade. Hell, not long ago some of us at Billboard wondered if we would ever see another million-unit first week, with digital sales numbers so down, ticket/merch bundles no longer contributing to sales totals, and streaming volume more spread out among different artists and genres every year. And then Midnights motors past the one million mark in only a couple days and just keeps going. It’s Adele-esque, really.
2. For Midnights to make such a resounding bow in 2022, a full 16 years into Swift’s career as a recording artist (and nearly as many as a global superstar), is pretty remarkable. What do you think the biggest reason is for Swift experiencing this current commercial renaissance?
Katie Atkinson: There are so many factors, but I think if you look at her last four releases – 2020’s Folklore and Evermore followed by the first two Taylor’s Version re-records, of Fearless and Red, in 2021 – that quartet of albums created an excitement around her that can only come from an artist with a decade-and-a-half of history with fans. She started by taking a musical and narrative left turn with her folky, more fictional pandemic albums, then reminded everyone how incomparable her back-catalog is (with some bonus and expanded tracks from those eras to boot), only to announce a brand-new album with a month-and-a-half heads-up but zero pre-release singles or videos. What would it sound like? What would it be about? What exactly is “Vigilante S–t”? Swift is a master of building buzz, and the last two years set the table for one of her buzziest albums yet.
Hannah Dailey: The most important gift Taylor brings to the table has always been her songwriting. When an artist is best-known for their vocals or performance abilities, there’s a lot less space to stay fresh or adapt to the times — there’s only so much one can do to elevate an already great voice, for example. But because Taylor’s greatest talent lies in something as infinite as language and story telling, she will always be able to find opportunities to write in ways that are new, fresh and reflective of the changing appetites of listeners.
As long as she stays as self aware as she is in regards to her strengths, a commercial renaissance will never be out of the question for Taylor. I think she could just as likely experience unprecedented levels of success with her next album, and her next album after that, and so on.
Jason Lipshutz: Pinpointing one reason for this unprecedented run is difficult, considering the amount of fan engagement, marketing acumen, collaborator savvy and attention to detail that Swift has demonstrated. Yet at the center of it all is the music, which remains as fresh, exciting and musically adventurous as any diehard fan could hope for this far into Swift’s career. Different eras speak to different listeners, but none of them are stale, and as such, they’re going to keep being rapturously received.
Joe Lynch: This is a great question *he said, buying himself time as he puzzles this out*. I think Taylor is soaring even by her standards because of the (Taylor’s Version) train. Each release brings with it a wave of nostalgia for her past eras and particularly in the case of Red (TV), paints a fuller picture in screaming color. You couple that with her pandemic reinvention as an introspective folkie and you end with an artist who is simultaneously relevant and nostalgia-inducing. That’s a winning combo.
Andrew Unterberger: For me, it’s the cash-in on years of build up from the FolkMore era of 2020 and the Taylor’s Versions duo of 2021 — none of which were really primed to pull in these kinds of numbers, but all of which were big successes on their own terms, and beloved by fans. Taylor has gone through periods with bigger pop hits and where she’s been more central to popular music in general, but her overall approval rating has arguably never been higher. She was due for an album like this to drop — with full advance warning this time — and just steamroll over everything.
3. “Anti-Hero” becomes Swift’s fourth single of the decade to debut at No. 1, all the same week as the debut of their respective parent albums on the Billboard 200. Each of the first three lasted just the one week on top — do you think “Anti-Hero” will also fall off, or do you anticipate a longer run there?
Katie Atkinson: I think it will have a longer run, but I’m only giving it two weeks up top — and maybe not even consecutive. With Rihanna’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever track dropping last Friday and Drake and 21 Savage’s joint album dropping this week, she has some real competition — not to mention Mariah Carey’s looming Christmas domination. But the way “Anti-Hero” has harnessed the power of TikTok and social media in general with its very meme-able chorus and the fact that airplay will no doubt keep growing for the song, it could have another week (or weeks) at No. 1.
Hannah Dailey: I can see “Anti-Hero” falling off the top spot. It has the same ambiguous quality of the singles from her past three albums in that it feels more like a part belonging to a greater body (its parent album) rather than a stand-alone body itself. It’s a good tune, but I don’t predict people will continue listening to it any more than they listen to the other 12 tracks on Midnights.
Jason Lipshutz: Buckle up, because “Anti-Hero” is about to enjoy a prolonged run atop the Hot 100, if early streaming and radio numbers (and the song’s catchiness) are any indication. Top 40 radio has been ready to embrace a new Swift pop single, listeners are gobbling up on the song on streaming services, and by the time you’ve finished reading this sentence, a new TikTok has been created with “Anti-Hero” as its soundtrack. If the over-under is 10 weeks at No. 1 for “Anti-Hero,” I’m taking the over.
Joe Lynch: I could see a couple weeks. I imagine it will build at radio – and that her second-week streaming numbers will still be massive – but I don’t see it being a long-haul Hot 100 topper.
Andrew Unterberger: Katie’s right that the upcoming competition this song is going to face will be fierce — starting this week with Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” — but I still think all signs point to this being a long-lasting No. 1, even if it its run gets interrupted once or twice. We could see it become the new “As It Was,” where for months, whenever there isn’t an obvious challenger to its top-dog status, it’s almost No. 1 by default. I’d currently bet on a nine-week run, but that may ultimately end up looking like a pretty conservative estimate.
4. While the commercial impact of Midnights is unquestionable, the legacy of the album within her catalog — particularly among fans — still remains to be seen. It’s still extremely early to call, but after about a week and a half with the album, how do you anticipate Midnights generally being remembered a decade or two down the line?
Katie Atkinson: I think a big portion of the massive commercial impact of the album is the positive word-of-mouth around it. But if we’re talking about ranking the album amidst her peerless catalog, it gets a bit dicier. I would place it above Lover for sure, but would I rank it above reputation? (Midnights and reputation almost feel like sister albums to me in some respects, so it’s tough to say.) And I definitely can’t rank it above 1989 or Red, and I think the pandemic pair are superior for me too – so it might be right smack-dab in the middle.
Hannah Dailey: Midnights will go down in history as an epic return to form. In the years leading up to its release, Taylor spent so much time trying on different hats, from experimenting with new sounds and fiction-based songwriting on Folklore and Evermore (which, in spite of their popularity, will always feel like temporary sidesteps off her charted path) to trying her hand at rerecording her old albums, Fearless and Red. With Midnights, Taylor re-embraced the hat that fits her best: writing best-selling, autobiographical songs about love, identity, growing up and heartbreak.
Jason Lipshutz: That’s the most interesting piece of this Midnights commercial bonanza to me — on paper, this is a minor work from Swift, shorter than most of her other opuses and arriving in the middle of her re-recording project. But Midnights is no stopgap, based on the response to her return to pop following the Folklore/Evermore era; if I were to guess, I’d say Midnights will be remembered as a more appealingly rhythmic version of her Reputation/Lover sound, highlighted by “Anti-Hero,” one of the biggest hits of Swift’s career.
Joe Lynch: It really is too early to tell, but I think it will live as a fan favorite — but certainly not any fans’ absolute favorite Taylor Swift album. One thing working in its favor, imo, is that of the many Swifties I’ve spoken to about it, everyone seems to have a different top 3 from Midnights. Unlike a hit album where everyone tends to agree that the same 3-4 tunes are the best, Midnights seems to connect with her listeners in a way that invites a little more fan ownership of the project.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s going to join reputation as the two Taylor albums whose actual musical content tends to get overshadowed in discussion by their, well, reputations. But reputation is one of my personal favorites of her catalog, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Midnights ends up falling in not too far behind it.
5. Is Taylor Swift the biggest pop star in the world right now?
Katie Atkinson: There’s a case to be made for three other artists who’ve released albums this year – Harry Styles, Bad Bunny and Beyoncé – but I think this chart command, and honestly overall command of the pop culture conversation, places the crown squarely back on Taylor Swift’s head.
Hannah Dailey: Unquestionably. Whether it’s sales, relevancy, or ability to inspire discourse, debate and conspiracy theories, she’s unmatched. Her pop stardom is especially heightened when you compare her staying power to the artists who, for many years, shared the league with her. Katy Perry hasn’t had a top 10 hit since 2017, and Gaga has spent the past few years splitting her focus across jazz, film scoring, acting and beauty products. That’s not to downplay how majorly successful those women are in their own rights; Taylor is just unique in that her continuous success has always revolved around the one thing she’s been doing from the very beginning: songwriting.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s her, hi, she’s the biggest, it’s her. Place the song and album numbers, which exist in a class of their own, to the side for a second — no one is dominating the cultural conversation quite like Swift upon a new album release, which remains a singular event in popular music. Swift is at the top, and will be for the foreseeable future.
Joe Lynch: If the operative words here are “biggest” and “pop star,” I don’t see how anyone could reasonably argue with that assertion unless they just get off on being contrarian. Kinda hard to argue with her ongoing numbers lately.
Andrew Unterberger: Yes.
Few rappers have made the jump to popular music’s A-list as successfully this decade as Atlanta rapper Lil Baby, whose 2020 album My Turn topped the Billboard 200 albums chart for five weeks and spawned major hits like “Emotionally Scarred,” “Woah,” and (from its deluxe edition) “We Paid” and “The Bigger Picture.”
This month, Lil Baby returns with that set’s proper follow-up, It’s Only Me — which was preceded with a slow trickle of one- and two-off single releases. The set bows atop the Billboard 200 this week with 216,000 equivalent album units moved and all 23 tracks appearing on the Billboard Hot 100, making it one of the year’s most dominant streaming releases.
Is the album a step up for Lil Baby? And where would we have him go next? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. It’s been two years since My Turn officially introduced Lil Baby as a solo superstar — does this reception for It’s Only Me tell you that his status has grown, fallen, or maintained in the years since?
Rania Aniftos: Grown! A second album as a solo star topping the Billboard 200 is an impressive feat, proving that it wasn’t just hype that launched My Turn to the top of the chart. It’s the fact that he’s a full-blown artist with fans that love his music, and this confirms his staying power in the music world.
Carl Lamarre: For someone who amassed superstar success in 2020, I think Baby’s appeal has grown since then, especially knowing he doesn’t have a traditional hit record behind this album. When Baby trucked his way into rap supremacy, he was armed with a bevy of singles like “We Paid,” “The Bigger Picture,” and “Emotionally Scarred.” This time around, he doesn’t have any surefire hits, but his consistency post My Turn has garnered loyalty from his core fanbase, along with new fans he’s picked up on the road.
Jason Lipshutz: Grown. Lil Baby has a much bigger profile than he did two-and-a-half years ago, with more hits, high-wattage collaborations, larger performance venues, and now, an even bigger No. 1 album debut on the Billboard 200. My Turn was the project that lit the fuse for Lil Baby as a modern hip-hop superstar, and It’s Only Me continues his prolonged explosion.
Andrew Unterberger: Maintained — which is hard enough to do, especially when nothing you’ve released in the last two years has really cut through in a major way, and the streaming ecosystem is constantly shifting behind you. Lil Baby appears to be established enough now to not really have to worry about pushing back against the tides; an enviable spot for 99% of rappers right now.
Christine Werthman: Grown. 2020 was a banner year for Lil Baby, as My Turn debuted at the top of the Billboard 200 with 197,000 equivalent album units earned — and then he just kept going, as “The Bigger Picture” turned into an anthem for those marching in Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020, and was nominated for two awards at the 2021 Grammys. Luminate named My Turn the biggest album of the year in 2020, and this year, it was certified quadruple platinum on Feb. 28, exactly two years from its release. The new set, It’s Only Me, once again debuts at No. 1, this time with 216,000 equivalent album units earned, exceeding his 2021 No. 1 with Lil Durk, The Voice of the Heroes, by 66,000. The new album’s numbers also surpass those from 2020, and considering he’s now got 25 songs on the Hot 100, it’s clear that demand has only increased for Lil Baby.
2. While Lil Baby has slow-released a number of new songs in the past year (“Right On,” “Frozen,” “Detox,” etc.), only “In a Minute” and the just-released “Heyy” appear on It’s Only Me. Do you think this has proven an effective promo strategy — or see it as an effective release strategy in general?
Rania Aniftos: Definitely, especially in the hip-hop scene, with new rappers budding up in the game all the time. I think the consistent rollout of tracks keeps Lil Baby relevant in the press and among hip-hop fans, while giving him time to work on his full album. Hence, when It’s Only Me dropped, fans knew what to expect and hadn’t forgotten about him, so they flocked to stream the album.
Carl Lamarre: If you couple Baby’s features with his slow-churning output, this is a smart recipe to success: If you feed your fans, they won’t yearn for more music. Like I previously said, despite his singles not having the same luster as his previous ones, Baby remained a formidable contender in-between releases because of his consistency. Thanks to that formula, his fans stood by him and showed up on his big day.
Jason Lipshutz: In this case, the release strategy was half-effective — those new songs didn’t become hit, or at least, hits of the stature of Baby’s most effective crossover singles — but they did keep him top of mind ahead of the It’s Only Me release, and that may have helped deliver the best Billboard 200 debut of his career. Perhaps It’s Only Me bows with an even bigger equivalent album unit total had one of those pre-release singles caught fire, but even without it, Lil Baby dominated this chart week.
Andrew Unterberger: Effective for maintaining, but not necessarily effective for growing. If Lil Baby wanted to make the jump to the Kendrick/Bad Bunny/Harry Styles level of stardom (and accompanying first-week numbers), he could probably stand to pull back on the regular releases and maybe turn his albums into more discrete projects and eras, building a more pronounced sense of anticipation for each new song when it arrives. But he’s doing quite fine as is, so I can’t really blame him for sticking with his current strategy.
Christine Werthman: Considering all those songs currently on the Hot 100, I’d say this strategy worked just fine. As a listener, it’s never that exciting to get an album that’s packed with singles you’ve already heard, so I appreciate that he kept dropping new music this year while still managing to have enough in the can for a full album. And it seems like lots of other listeners felt the same way — with the singles, whether or not they appeared on the album, building anticipation for this new project.
3. While all the songs Lil Baby has released this year have been decently successful, only “In a Minute” has really verged on being a major multi-platform success. Do you think see any of the new tracks on It’s Only Me going to a higher commercial level? (See list of his current Hot 100 entries at bottom of e-mail.)
Rania Aniftos: I’m thinking “Heyy” is going to have a commercial moment, especially because it jumped from No. 77 to No. 21 on the Hot 100 this week, which is a pretty big leap. The trap-infused hook makes it a really great party hit too. “California Breeze” is also a contender for a hit, because it’s fun and catchy, and it’s the only song currently in the top 5 on the Hot 100.
Carl Lamarre: I think “Heyy” has the most pull to become a quality single for Baby and Co. The bars are steely, the hook is sticky and the song itself boasts enough TikTok flavor to attract a whole new movement and trend on the popular app. I also am a fan of Fridayy’s hook capabilities, as the pairing of him and Baby on “Forever,” is a winner for me.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m all in on “Pop Out,” the team-up with Nardo Wick that perfectly balances Lil Baby’s floating, elastic wordplay and Wick’s deep, sinister murmurs. Love the singsong intro, the subtle strings in the production, the beat switch-up — “Pop Out” is one of the best hip-hop collaborations of the year, and deserves to be unavoidable.
Andrew Unterberger: “Pop Out” also seems like the one for me — TikTok could certainly have a field day with the mid-song switch-up — though Future collab “From Now On” is also up there for me for a lot of the same reasons.
Christine Werthman: The moody and melodic “California Breeze,” currently the No. 4 song on the Hot 100, is a standout track, and I see it sticking around, though I don’t know if it will surpass No. 4. The background sample comes from Danish artist Coco O., who is half of Quadron, the electronic duo with Robin Hannibal, who is one of the founders of the equally chill and vibe-y Rhye. Coco O.’s song “Gwen” is pitched down and stretched out, creating a soft atmosphere around Lil Baby’s lines about mistrusting some, protecting others and keeping his bookings up. Lil Baby dropped a video along with this one, so it seems like he has confidence in it as well.
That said, this doesn’t sound like a hits-generating album. It’s best absorbed in one complete go — if you’ve got an hour and five minutes to spare — so you can fully feel the weight of the dark clouds overhead.
4. Do you have any deeper favorites on It’s Only Me? Anything that you think pushes him into new or interesting territory?
Rania Aniftos: While I think sound-wise, “Russian Roulette” follows a similar feel to the rest of the tracks on the album, the lyrics are super vulnerable for Lil Baby. Talking about how he grew up, friends who have died along the way and how he feels about his music career gives him an added layer of depth, which I personally always appreciate.
Carl Lamarre: “Not Finished” is prime Baby, where he exudes feline agility without losing his lyrical verve. When Baby is dialed in, no rapper can keep up, as we have previously seen with Drake (“Wants & Needs”) and J. Cole (“Pride Is The Devil”). Also, Baby’s penchant for samples this outing was gold, as he floated on the album standout “California Breeze.”
Jason Lipshutz: A song like “Danger” only slightly tweaks the proven Lil Baby formula, but he spits with such wild-eyed conviction over that racing piano line that the song functions as a jolt of adrenaline on It’s Only Me, and an interesting change-up of Baby’s approach in the second half of the album. A project that leans toward this type of urgency would be a different lane for Baby, but a rewarding one.
Andrew Unterberger: Not really.
Christine Werthman: Instead of pushing Lil Baby into new territory, these songs find him staking out his zone, characterized by a haze of anxiety and the pursuit of revenue. What better rapper to welcome back to that bleak, hedonistic party than Future, who joins Lil Baby on “From Now On”? While Baby says his image revamp requires “no more pictures with my Styrofoam,” Future is contentedly “drinkin’ out Styrofoam,” unbothered or numb or both, his apathy making Lil Baby sound like a hopeful youth by comparison.
5. While there are some differences, It’s Only Me does seem largely patterned after My Turn in terms of its sound and structure. If Lil Baby was to go in a different direction on his next LP, how would you recommend he switch it up?
Rania Aniftos: I’d love to see him play with a little more R&B. There are incredible female R&B singers out there, and it would be so fun to see him have some collaborations with SZA or Jessie Reyez.
Carl Lamarre: I like the idea of Baby leaning more into samples. He does a great job in being introspective and I can honestly see him own that lane a la Drake with the right production. I also believe a tighter and more concise album — 14 tracks max — would bode well for Baby going forward.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d go slightly shorter and more uptempo — It’s Only Me is a highly satisfying listen that requires the listener to sink into its charms for 65 minutes, but I also believe Baby is capable of a 40-minute project that’s wall-to-wall bangers. He doesn’t need to drop something like that to stay on top, but damn if I wouldn’t enjoy it.
Andrew Unterberger: I’d love to see him explore a one-rapper, one-producer team-up project, a la 21 Savage and Metro Boomin’s pair of Savage Mode full-lengths. Baby’s one of the best rappers of his generation, but his production tastes can sometimes drift towards the indistinct — so for him to find a musical collaborator with a strong signature sound and see what kind of chemistry they could build over 12-15 tracks would be a really, really exciting prospect to me.
Christine Werthman: The sound and structure might be generally similar across the two albums, but the beats on It’s Only Me are less varied, and he seemed more charged up on My Turn. I like that he brought on a lot of guests that comfortably fit his vibe and support but don’t outshine him, but he gets more amped when paired with someone less similar, like Nicki Minaj on “Do We Have a Problem?” or J. Cole on “pride.is.the.devil.” It’s Only Me shows that Lil Baby knows his lane, but it’d be fun to see him step out of it.
For the second time in two years, one of the Billboard Hot 100‘s biggest records has fallen.
In August of 2021, the all-time mark for longest run on the Hot 100 was set by The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights,” passing the previous mark of 87 (held by Imagine Dragons’ “Radioactive”) and ultimately holding on for 90 weeks total. This week, on the Hot 100 dated Oct. 22, the benchmark is once again passed — this time by U.K. alt-pop outfit Glass Animals, with their first-ever Hot 100 entry, the global smash “Heat Waves.”
Why has this record been so vulnerable in recent years? And where do Glass Animals go from here? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. Even as a song that’s already made its fair share of Billboard Hot 100 history, how big a deal is it — on a scale from frigid to scorching — for a band like Glass Animals, with no history on the chart, to set the all-time longevity record with its first-ever Hot 100 hit?
Katie Atkinson: It’s blazing. Unlike The Weeknd, who was a known entity with an established track record of pop hits when he previously broke the record, Glass Animals lived firmly in the alternative radio space when “Heat Waves” was released. We’ve seen alt hits cross over to the mainstream many times before (Foster the People’s top five Hot 100 hit “Pumped Up Kicks” comes to mind), but never to this astronomical level. I’m going to need central air to combat this smoldering level of long-term heat.
Eric Renner Brown: Room temperature. For Glass Animals and the group’s fans – and onlookers who are just tired of the chart dominance of pop’s A-list – it’s an exciting feat. And the notion that, in 2022, a capital-B Band gradually built a sturdy career that could eventually match the accomplishment of a major pop artist like The Weeknd, at least in this specific arena, is impressive. Still, I hesitate to give Glass Animals *all* the credit here. The factors that govern how a hit becomes a hit – and how it stays one – have changed, and I think that rather than being an isolated case, we’ll probably see more runs like the one that “Heat Waves” has had going forward.
Josh Glicksman: Balmy! Of course — and more on this soon — Billboard has discussed the scarcity of new hits in 2022 throughout the year, and thanks to platforms like TikTok, there has been a significant jump in recent years of acts with no Hot 100 history climbing the ranks with their debut entry. Still, history is history, and Glass Animals deserves its flowers for curating the kind of hit to resonate this strongly with the masses for this long. Put some big points on the board for the everyman hero.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d call it “toasty,” because, while “Heat Waves” setting the longevity record on the Hot 100 is a big deal, the fact that a band like Glass Animals, with limited chart history, were the ones to do it doesn’t strike me as too extraordinary. Some of the biggest hits in the history of the Hot 100 came from out of nowhere — the longest-leading No. 1 hit of all time, for instance, is courtesy of Lil Nas X, with his debut Hot 100 hit. Lightning can strike anywhere, as we’ve learned time and again, so the fact that Glass Animals are unlikely Hot 100 rulers doesn’t make “Heat Waves” any less undeniable.
Andrew Unterberger: Warm. It means the group has a streaming perennial that basically should be enough of a moneymaker to make them (or at least lead singer/songwriter Dave Bayley) more or less financially independent for the rest of their careers, which is certainly no small thing, and it means they’ll be festival fixtures for basically as long as they desire to be. I do wonder about what the band would say about their most recent live audiences, though, and whether they actually notice a considerable difference in their 2022 crowds from their pre-“Heat Waves” turnouts, since TikTok breakouts like this tend to do a lot more for the songs than the artists who record them. At this scale, though, it might not matter — even if 1 out of every 1000 people who streamed “Heat Waves” became a Glass Animals fan, that’s still a whole lot of new Glass Animals fans.
2. “Blinding Lights” and “Heat Waves” have now both consecutively broken the Hot 100’s longevity record within the space of less than two years. What do the two songs have in common to you that allowed them to notch these kinds of record runs?
Katie Atkinson: It can’t be a coincidence that the bulk of both of their runs took place during a global pandemic. I imagine there were a lot of anomalous listening trends over the past two years that accounted for these incredibly long stays (on radio, especially) — like the fact that morning commutes were all but erased — so there’s a real chance that people just now driving to work again could be either discovering these songs or at least not entirely sick of them. Plus, both songs work well across multiple genres and formats, including adult pop radio and adult alternative, which both keep songs around longer than their younger counterparts. It was really a perfect storm of circumstances for both hits to thrive.
Eric Renner Brown: The success of “Blinding Lights” always made sense to me: massive pop star filters peak Michael Jackson through a vaguely ’10s filter, with an assist from Top 40 sage Max Martin and a hook that buries itself into every crevice of a listener’s brain. If “Blinding Lights” couldn’t set the Hot 100’s longevity record, what could? “Heat Waves,” apparently – but the fact that it had such widespread and enduring appeal sort of baffles me. For a certain subset of Millennials, I can see the song evoking nostalgia, for the mid-’10s boom of vibed-out, groove-savvy, Coachella-tent-ready rock. But it doesn’t harken back to massive ’80s pop – or tap into *that* vein of nostalgia – like “Blinding Lights” does. Ultimately, the biggest commonality is the commonality of most smash hits: a hook that burrows into your brain and refuses to leave.
Josh Glicksman: The first and most important thing that comes to my mind is the radio airplay: both “Blinding Lights” and “Heat Waves” have spent more than 50 weeks on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart and each have tallied more than 60 weeks on the all-format Radio Songs chart (with a whopping 83 for “Blinding Lights”). It goes without saying that both singles are massive earworms, but without them being firmly rooted in the radio rotation for more than a year each, I don’t think we’d see these kinds of extended runs.
Jason Lipshutz: Nothing, really? Both tracks are sure-thing, accessible smashes that didn’t seem to wear on listeners after months and months of play, but they come from two wildly different artists with dissimilar aesthetics and sounds. Perhaps the biggest similarity is in their multi-platform dominance: they both thrived by triangulating streaming success, radio play and the more ephemeral TikTok trend quadrant (in the case of “Heat Waves,” that’s how the song started taking off) for months on end, and that’s how both were able to set the Hot 100 longevity record.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a cross-genre affability and an ability to vibe on a lot of different wavelengths, for sure. But ultimately, the biggest similarities here are found much more in the contexts surrounding the songs and their releases than in the songs themselves.
3. The Weeknd and Glass Animals are far from the only artists nearing or breaking longevity-based records on the Hot 100 this decade — for instance, Harry Styles’ “As It Was” also extends its record for most weeks in the Hot 100’s top three this week. What do you think is the primary reason for these songs notching such unprecedented chart runs, and do you see it as either a good or bad thing for the industry?
Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely related to our colleague Elias Leight’s reporting on there being too many songs but enough hits. It’s nice for Harry Styles to cement his pop-superstar status with the “As It Was” run, but the reason it’s thriving like this likely has more to do with the logjam of songs at the top that aren’t making way for other hits than it does with the Harry’s House lead single’s legacy. I think it’s ultimately a bad thing for the industry when the wealth isn’t shared a little more.
Eric Renner Brown: I’m going to go with Occam’s razor here: The songs are good! As chart criteria has evolved alongside streaming, we’ve seen both singles and albums frequently make big splashes, then fizzle after a couple weeks when popular interest moves on. The success of “Blinding Lights,” “Heat Waves,” and “As It Was” all indicate to me that the songs truly resonated with fans, in ways that went beyond mere curiosity in fresh singles. That’s particularly noteworthy with The Weeknd and Harry Styles, where that type of curiosity in what pop’s biggest names are up to can yield huge numbers upon release that quickly dissipate.
Josh Glicksman: A lot of it seemingly comes down to the sheer volume of music readily accessible to the public on a weekly basis. It’s so easy for singles, albums and even artists to simply get lost in the shuffle. As Billboard recently reported, pop music is struggling to create new stars at the moment, and it feels even less so like it’s creating sustainable ones. All of that points towards banking on a few established juggernauts — plus the seldom breakthrough — to provide reliable hits that can be slotted into the rotation for lengthy stays. I’ll never turn the dial when those songs come on, but it’s probably not the best thing for the industry long-term.
Jason Lipshutz: Hit singles are remaining hits for longer periods of time these days, largely based on listener behavior: fans keep streaming songs like “Blinding Lights,” “Heat Waves” and “As It Was” for months after their release, and radio programmers have picked up on that prolonged interest and kept these tracks in heavy rotation. In other words, listeners want to keep hearing these songs, and they’re lasting longer on the chart based on these preferences. And while that may result in more chart stagnation, ultimately, I believe the Hot 100 is more reflective of listener habits than ever before, which is definitely a good thing.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s definitely a combination of radio and streaming both keeping hit songs alive for a lot longer than ever before, and reduced label influence resulting in each single’s cycle lasting as long as fans and listeners say it does — not what’s convenient for an artist’s full-album rollout. A long-lasting hit isn’t a bad thing in itself, but when it becomes more the rule than the exception for the Hot 100’s highest tiers, it does result in a certain level of unfortunate pop stagnation.
4. Assuming the broken record is the last major chart accomplishment notched by “Heat Waves” — maybe not a safe assumption — and the song’s run is finally nearing its end, would you have any advice for Glass Animals as to how to best follow up (or not) the success of a song this massive and unkillable?
Katie Atkinson: There’s really three directions this could go. 1) They could be so spooked by the “Heat Waves” success that they’re never heard from again; 2) They could go back to their alternative radio safe space by doing what they were doing best before, but now with a little more cachet; or 3) They could start working with pop songwriters and producers to try stay in the big leagues. I personally would vote Option No. 2 for them, because they can parlay this outlier hit into a really fulfilling career firmly in their wheelhouse and have a more robust fanbase along for the ride, without being accused of the dreaded “selling out.” Win-win.
Eric Renner Brown: Stay true to the fans. Glass Animals was huge, in a way, before “Heat Waves,” and those are the listeners who will continue to drive their career going forward. Never say never, I guess, but it’s unlikely they’ll replicate the crossover success of this song. Better to stick with the robust base of fans they built beforehand than to chase continued pop relevancy that may prove elusive.
Josh Glicksman: Zag! There’s no real statistical basis that I’m pulling from here, but it always feels to me that artists looking to replicate success with songs that are made “in the same vein as such-and-such previous huge hit” fall flat. That doesn’t mean Glass Animals needs to reinvent the wheel or pivot genres entirely, but all I’m asking for is that it strays away from looking to recapture lightning in a bottle with a “Heat Waves Pt. II.”
Andrew Unterberger: I’d put all the effort into the live show, which is likely the easiest/most reliable way to ensure that fans who check out your band after hearing a song they like for the first time stick around for whatever you do next. (And seems like they’re already fairly far ahead of me there.)
5. Considering that “Heat Waves” was already on the Hot 100 the week that “Blinding Lights” first broke the longevity record, take a look at the chart this week — if you had to pick one song currently on there that might ultimately supplant “Heat Waves,” which would it be?
Katie Atkinson: This feels like a copout answer, but I’m going to say “As It Was.” Even though this top three chokehold has to come to an end soon, it feels like, just like “Heat Waves,” this one isn’t leaving radio or streaming anytime soon and should have some serious legs. It only needs 62 more weeks on the chart…
Eric Renner Brown: Lizzo’s “About Damn Time.” It’s already a quarter of the way there, is still holding strong at No. 11, and I feel like it has a long tail as an affirmational anthem and mainstream party staple. Lizzo’s omnipresence in the cultural discourse will also help to bolster the song’s staying power.
Josh Glicksman: It’s not a bold pick by any stretch, but I’ll take “As It Was.” Already nearly 30 weeks in, it feels like it’s just getting started.
Jason Lipshutz: My head says Morgan Wallen’s “Wasted On You,” on the chart for 48 weeks now and still moving upward within the top 20, depending on the week; my heart says Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit,” which, sure, has a long way to go after “only” being on the chart 15 weeks, but the current biggest song in the country isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Andrew Unterberger: Hmm, cross-genre appeal, vibes fit in multiple contexts, took a minute to climb the chart (even starting at No. 100) and is now unavoidable on streaming and (soon enough if not already) on radio? Seems to me like our current No. 1 checks most of those boxes, no?