five burning questions
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December can be a tough month for any big artist to get attention for their new release, let alone for a producer still best known for his behind-the-scenes work. But that doesn’t appear to be a problem for Metro Boomin, who scores his second No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart this week (following Savage Mode II, his 2020 teamup with 21 Savage) with his star-studded Heroes & Villains set.
The new LP, which features appearances from hitmakers like Savage, Travis Scott, The Weeknd, Future and Young Thug and even boasts narration from Oscar winner Morgan Freeman, moves 185,000 equivalent album units in its first week, a tremendous number for a producer-led set. It also scores Billboard Hot 100 debuts for each of its 15 tracks, including two top 10 debuts, with the Weeknd- and 21 Savage-featuring “Creepin’” (a remake of Mario Winans’ 2004 smash “I Don’t Wanna Know”) at No. 5 and the Future- and Chris Brown-assisted “Superhero (Heroes and Villains)” at No. 8.
How did Metro score such a big debut for his new set? And will “Creepin’” be a breakout hit to carries over well into 2023? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Obviously an album with a guest list the size of Heroes & Villains‘ is going to get attention, but 185k is a pretty staggering first-week number for any producer-led set. Does it speak more to you to the featured names involved, or to Metro Boomin’s reputation as a producer and album artist?
Eric Renner Brown: For listeners who aren’t immersed in music media – so, the bulk of who propelled this album’s first-week success – here’s how I imagine this went down: Devoted fans of one of Heroes & Villains‘ featured artists saw the artist they like had a new track out, followed the streaming service hyperlink to the album, inevitably saw a bunch of other artists they liked, and decided to press play. Metro Boomin’s name probably helped – years of hearing his name on your favorite songs engenders some trust – but I’m picturing many of this album’s listeners already being sold on listening to it, based on the A-list MCs involved.
But! Coming at the question another way, Metro Boomin’s reputation as a producer and album artist were key to the impressive first-week numbers: his reputation helped him land all these big names in the first place, and those names drove the album’s success.
Carl Lamarre: Nayvadius Cash said it best: If Young Metro don’t trust you… but seriously, I think Metro has blossomed into a perennial go-to producer because of his out-of-the-box concoctions. He doesn’t simply copy and paste gaudy features onto a tracklist – he’s a mastermind who skillfully maps out his records from start to finish. That and a genius rollout anchored by his Hollywood BFF Morgan Freeman draws intrigue every time. This blockbuster win is a deserved one for Metro and Co.
Elias Leight: Metro Boomin has always benefitted from star-studded guest lists. Not All Heroes Wear Capes had 11 featured acts, from Drake to Travis Scott; Heroes & Villains added two more to the party. But the producer’s collaborative albums have also seen steady commercial growth. After Not All Heroes Wear Capes debuted at No. 1 behind 99,000 album-equivalent units in 2018, his 21 Savage team-up Savage Mode II repeated at the top of the chart with 171,000 units in 2020. With these numbers in mind, 185,000 units and another Number One for Not All Heroes doesn’t feel surprising.
Neena Rouhani: Star power doesn’t always equal chart-topping success. The performance of the album speaks to both longstanding chemistry and organic marketing. Throughout the last seven-plus years, Metro has released a handful of home-run projects alongside some of the featured acts, like Future’s DS2 and 21’s Savage Mode. We all know what to expect when these guys come together, and it’s top-tier. Which leads me to my second point: it’s a damn good album. The days following its release, I saw a considerable number of people in my circle posting about how great it is, adding screenshots of different tracks to their stories, which will make someone go check it out for themselves. That natural hype matters, and is less concentrated considering the influx of new music every day.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s more about Metro Boomin, actually. We’ve seen plenty of producer-led sets from big names like Mustard and Mike Will Made-It debut with respectable, but hardly blockbuster numbers, and they’re usually just as star-packed as Heroes & Villains. Hell, even DJ Khaled’s latest, God Did — which boasts full dozens of the biggest names in the business — only did 107,500 units in its first week earlier this year. Metro has built a rep for both a high degree of quality control and full-album cohesion with efforts released under his name, and I think that matters more than the guest list for getting listeners to play the whole LP front to back, rather than just the 2-3 songs with their favs as features.
2. Metro Boomin has taken to promoting his full-length releases like movies, with accompanying trailers and shorts, a guest list that plays like a cast of characters and even narration from acting great Morgan Freeman. Have the numbers for this set (and 2020’s Savage Mode II) proven this an effective and/or replicable release strategy, or do you think it’s mostly incidental to their success?
Eric Renner Brown: I think this strategy was incidental to H&V‘s success, mostly because I don’t think it was a sales strategy in the first place. For decades, musicians have used concept albums, however vague or focused, as clearinghouses for their cinematic impulses. And as superhero flicks have become the center of gravity for American moviegoers – sorry, filmheads – it tracks for me that musicians would want to mimic some of their hallmarks: stuffed casts, grandiose themes, and yes, hype-driven rollouts. (The name of this specific project really drives this point home.)
But I think the impetus behind that is more about prestige than business, especially for a producer like Metro Boomin, who has more in common with a Hollywood director wrangling stars and a creative vision than a single rapper might. It’s about how Metro sees himself: an auteur helming rap’s equivalent of a Marvel movie. (In this analogy, maybe DJ Khaled is rap’s DC, churning out projects that underwhelm despite their beloved IP and huge stars.) I’m sure some Metro diehards enjoyed this rollout, so I wouldn’t say it was ineffective – I just wouldn’t credit much of the album’s eventual success to it.
Carl Lamarre: While great music trumps any and everything, it’s the storyline that is the measuring stick in today’s climate. Metro is already elusive when speaking to media, so the most we’ll get from him besides that one publication cover look is through his trailers and social media posts. Despite being press-shy, he’s a true gunslinger with storytelling, and building up anticipation for that thrill ride we always yearn for.
Elias Leight: While Morgan Freeman’s narration is an amusingly over-the-top touch, it’s likely that most hip-hop fans would press play on this album simply for all the big names. It also helps that there’s a dearth of new releases this time of year as everyone succumbs to the tyranny of holiday playlists.
Neena Rouhani: I’d say it’s both, but it doesn’t boil down to narrators or characters. I think people appreciate a tight, cohesive set with a distinguishable throughline, rather than a bunch of songs the producer hopes will hit the radio or go viral smacked together haphazardly. With that being said, Metro has a stellar reputation as a producer. Even without the theatrics, the project would’ve still done well for its first week — but the staying power may have faltered.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it matters, especially for artists like Metro Boomin who have proven that their albums do play in a legitimately cinematic fashion. Excitement over the album trailer was certainly how the set first made my radar online, and I’m sure far from the only one whose curiosity was stoked by it. I don’t know how replicable it is for other artists, but I generally think anything that makes your album feel like a fully immersive experience and not just a compilation of tracks is only ever going to help your overall numbers.
3. “Creepin’,” with The Weeknd and 21 Savage — which is essentially a cover of Mario Winans’ ’00s hit “I Don’t Wanna Know” — has shot out to the early lead among the album’s tracks in our chart metrics, debuting at No. 5 on the Hot 100 and ranking as the highest-charting non-holiday release this week. Does it feel like a hit that’ll last well into 2023 to you, or is it a one-week or one-month wonder mostly owing to the star power of its creators and novelty of its source?
Eric Renner Brown: I doubt “Creepin’” will stick around. The dearth of new releases in December makes it an easier playing field to score a minor hit, especially for stars as established as The Weeknd and 21 Savage. And the novelty of the source material probably helped too: “Hey, [insert friend or loved one’s name here], did you hear this new Weeknd and 21 Savage song that redoes Mario Winans? You should check it out!” Then again, this would’ve be the first time I’ve severely underestimated the staying power of a Weeknd single.
Carl Lamarre: The latter. It’s a great song and a replay-worthy record, but the thrill will dissipate after a few weeks. I say that only because we’re dealing with limited attention spans. The record can be a top 20 – top 30 player after a few weeks, but I can’t foresee “Creepin” peaking higher than its debut position, especially if artists begin aggressively attacking that first quarter à la Gunna and Weeknd last year.
Elias Leight: Radio especially is obsessed with songs like this — what amounts to oldies karaoke disguised as a new single — because it allows them to play something that’s already familiar to their audience. Expect this one to get a lot of spins once radio shakes off Christmas-malaise in the new year.
Neena Rouhani: I love that song, I think it was a great flip and a standout moment on the album. But whether or not it endures I think has a lot to do with social media and how it performs on apps like TikTok. If a massive trend takes hold of it, the rest is written. If not, I could see the song fading into the background.
Andrew Unterberger: I dunno if the song will ever reach higher than No. 5 on the Hot 100 — though it’s pretty telling that it would’ve hit No. 1 if not for the holiday rush — but I don’t see it just fading away, either; everything about the past two years in pop music tells us that the novelty of hits borrowing from other hits does not wear off as quickly as we may have once thought. (And this one is both more novel and better executed than most, I’d say.)
4. Though we’ve talked a great deal about samples and interpolations in Five Burning Questions this year, discussion of covers — or perhaps “remakes,” since technically “Creepin’” has both a different title and different rap verse than Winans’ and Diddy’s original — has been relatively scarce. Does the early success of “Creepin’” demonstrate that maybe there’s something more or different to be gained by not just borrowing from large swaths of an established hit song, but actually redoing the whole thing?
Eric Renner Brown: “Creepin’” doesn’t feel too far from Drake and Future’s “Way 2 Sexy” from last year or Nicki Minaj’s “Super Freaky Girl” from August, which sampled massive, nostalgic hits in ways such prominent ways that they were key drivers to the success of those singles. Whatever nomenclature you want to use for “Super Freaky Girl,” anyone of a certain age who listens to it will go, “Oh, yeah, Nicki’s Rick James song!” Which is sort of the point, right?
Now, for an unorthodox comparison, I’m going to liken Metro Boomin to Phish, a band that despite having a deep arsenal of its own material, routinely covered a spectrum of artists it revered, new and old, and used covers to excite audiences – and hint at their creative inspirations and philosophies. Covers can be fun ways to engage and connect with listeners, and if songs like “Creepin’” demonstrate that they’re good for business, too, I bet we’ll see more in the months and years ahead.
Carl Lamarre: I appreciate the educational value that it entails. I remember seeing an Instagram post highlighting the samples and origins beyond Mario Winans’s “I Don’t Wanna Know” — which itself initially sampled the riffs from Enya’s song “Boadicea” and the beat from another ’80s gem in EPMD’s “You’re a Customer.” So for music geeks, it’s cool to do some digging, re-appreciate the story of certain songs and pay homage to the journey there.
Elias Leight: I don’t see all that much difference between “Creepin’” and some of the wildly obvious lifts that have powered other hits this year — the in-your-face nod to Rick Astley on Yung Gravy’s “Betty (Get Money)” or Eiffel 65 on David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue).” Building new hits from the bones of old hits has been common since at least the Bad Boy era (which of course spawned Mario Winans’ “I Don’t Wanna Know”). At a time when commercial success seems harder to predict than ever, more and more artists and producers appear to be leaning on this strategy.
Neena Rouhani: The verses and chorus (a.k.a. the most important parts) were entirely pulled from Mario Winans, not to mention that iconic drum pattern. They added to it in a way that felt fresh enough to keep those of us who knew the original interested, while keeping the parts that they knew would hook less-familiar listeners. But I don’t think we should make a habit of this. At that point, it’s going to feel like a bunch of covers rather than a sound expanding and evolving. The way we sample and interpolate has definitely become more overt and we’re using songs from less than 20 years ago. I think that could get old quick.
Andrew Unterberger: The thought behind it is the same as any number of secondhand hits of recent years, but I do think there’s some sort of head-smackingly obvious revelation at play here: If you’re going to take so much of an older song that it basically feels like a cover anyway, why not just make it a (relatively) straight cover? There might be publishing reasons for that, of course, but I doubt any of the three artists involved really are hurting financially enough to squabble much over percentages for this one, and in the meantime they may get the easiest smash of their collective careers out of it.
5. Releasing a big-budget and/or long-anticipated album once the holiday season has already begun to hit: Good idea or bad idea?
Eric Renner Brown: Good idea! For the music media, Thanksgiving heralds a period of reflection – and year-end list season. For the rest of the world, December is just another month – and one where many people have more time off to listen to new music than at any other time of the year. To bring it back to Hollywood blockbusters: There’s a reason so many big movies drop during the holiday season or even on Christmas itself. That said, Metro’s album probably won’t make for quite as good a stocking stuffer for moms as Adele’s 25 did a few years ago.
Carl Lamarre: Bad idea. Let’s put aside the music heavyweights and think about medium-sized artists. Chances are, you’ll probably get snowed in by all of the Christmas releases and have zero chance to make any noise on the Hot 100 until the new year. My suggestion has always been to punch in the clock and start fresh in early January when everything is quiet, and the run for supremacy is on the table. It worked for Gunna last year, who had the best run of his career. Encanto and Olivia Rodrigo recently enjoyed huge wins and launched their shots around the first quarter. I would pack everything in and wait for Jan-Feb to go crazy.
Elias Leight: If your goal is to get a No. 1 album, this is a good time to release music — competition is slim. If you want a No. 1 single, December is ice cold: “Creepin” is stuck behind “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree,” “Jingle Bell Rock,” and “A Holly Jolly Christmas” for at least two more weeks. Last year, the reign of “All I Want for Christmas Is You” lasted into January before contemporary music regained control of the top of the Hot 100 in the form of Adele’s “Easy on Me.” If “Creepin’” can stick around into the new year, it will have to compete with already proven hits that have managed to withstand the holiday onslaught — Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” Sam Smith and Kim Petras’ “Unholy” — as well as new singles from SZA, especially “Kill Bill,” which is already putting up impressive streaming numbers.
Neena Rouhani: Good idea because fewer artists are releasing new sets, so more attention on you; bad idea because we all know this is really Mariah’s time to shine.
Andrew Unterberger: Good idea, unless you really value your appearances on year-end lists.
There’s no place like the Billboard charts for the holiday music season, and as always, our Holiday 100 is back and keeping track of the biggest seasonal hits of each week through the New Year.
This year, it’s once again the usual suspects looking to steal the Christmas No. 1 — Mariah Carey‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is on top this week (chart dated Dec. 10), followed by Brenda Lee‘s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Bobby Helms‘ “Jingle Bell Rock.” They’re also the three highest of the six holiday songs in the top 10 of this week’s Billboard Hot 100, though none of them have yet captured pole position, which still belongs to Taylor Swift’s secular smash “Anti-Hero.”
When, if at all, will one of the holiday perennials take over on the Hot 100? And why do newer songs never seem to be able to grow in momentum on the chart? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. As it always does this time of year, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is knocking on the door of the Hot 100’s top spot, moving from No. 5 to No. 2 on the chart this week. But it has a formidable hit blocking its path this time, with Taylor Swift’s six-week No. 1, “Anti-Hero.” Do you think it will depose “Anti-Hero” next week? If not, how long do you think it will take — if it does so at all?
Katie Atkinson: Oh, it’s going back to No. 1, dahling, and I think next week is the week. The current tracking period is the first full week of December, and Christmas music listeners have made the full transition. Time to get out the garland and ornaments for the Hot 100, because its most treasured Christmas star is about to be placed back on top.
Jason Lipshutz: Yeah, next week feels like the week — and that’s an unscientific read on the situation, but the “Anti-Hero”/“All I Want for Christmas Is You” battle reminds me of last year’s showdown between Mariah Carey’s holiday juggernaut and Adele’s multi-week chart-topper “Easy on Me.” “Christmas” took a few weeks into December to dislodge “Easy” during its run, and I’d surmise that it will do the same to “Anti-Hero” starting next week.
Glenn Rowley: “Anti-Hero” might be able to hold onto the crown for one more week but judging by her song’s massive gains this week, it’s clear Mariah just wants the No. 1 for her own (again). And as Christmas gets closer, the festive fervor will only go from high-pitched to full-blown whistle tone. Though I admit there’s an alternate reality in my daydreaming where Taylor’s Midnights smash holds off “ All I Want for Christmas Is You” by becoming the definitive anthem to soundtrack a Newsies-style antitrust revolution by the Swifties, a la “Seize the Day.”
Andrew Unterberger: Mariah Carey is certainly looming, but I wouldn’t count out some last-minute sales/discounts/remixes emerging from Swift late in the week to help get her the edge she needs here. She’s done it successfully a couple times during the “Anti-Hero” run already, and she’s likely extra motivated this week, as the song is just one week away from tying “Blank Space” as her longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 to date. Once Mariah grabs the top spot, it might be close to a month before she gives it back — and who knows what else will emerge as competition in the meantime — so Swift is gonna want every week she can get for “Anti-Hero” before then. But within 2-3 weeks, it’ll be out of her hands, and Carey’s reign will commence regardless.
Christine Werthman: Swift’s hit has staying power, but Carey’s is coming like a freight train — or perhaps the Polar Express. “Anti-Hero” has been the No. 1 for the last six weeks, but it is dropping in streams, while “Christmas” is on the rise. In fact, Carey’s juggernaut is currently the most-streamed song in the U.S., and as the days tick by to Dec. 25, Carey’s smash will continue to climb, bludgeoning all that stand in its way with a stocking full of holiday cheer. It will be No. 1 soon enough.
2. While Mariah leads on the Holiday 100, the usual challengers appear just below her in Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Bobby Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock.” If you had to bet on this top three either being the same for each of the next five holiday seasons, or being disrupted at some point — either by an order switch or a different song — which way would you wager?
Katie Atkinson: I’ve always wanted “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” to score even one week at No. 1 on the Hot 100, where it’s so far peaked at No. 2, but Mariah’s merry monster is a hard one to overcome. Lee recorded the song at just 13 years old and is a spry 77 today, and it would be so sweet for her to get her poinsettias while she’s still with us. But as a betting woman, I think that top three will remain in the same order for the next five yuletide seasons.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d guess that some time in the next half-decade, one of the two golden oldies (more likely “Jingle Bell Rock”) gets swapped out with something more recent, while the others persist as part of the big three. That’s not to say that either one will fall off entirely, but betting on “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and “Jingle Bell Rock” to stay this locked into the big three, when there’s so much competition for those spots, seems improbable. Of course, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” isn’t going anywhere — that’s going to remain one of the three highest-charting holiday songs each year for the next decade, if not just stay at No. 1 that whole time.
Glenn Rowley: The short answer is a holly jolly nope. At this point, the Holiday 100 feels a bit more like Groundhog’s Day than anything else, and the longer these three tracks dominate the season, the more entrenched they seem to become.
Andrew Unterberger: Betting on stasis with the Holiday 100 is usually the smart play, so I’ll say yes, that’s the top three for the next half-decade. That said, you never know what can pop from out of nowhere these days — and even if a new song isn’t yet powerful enough to run with the big reindeer on an annual basis, it can post a big-enough debut to at least elbow its way in with them temporarily, like Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” did last decade.
Christine Werthman: Carey will remain No. 1 for the next five holiday seasons. Looking back on this week from 2017 until now, Brenda Lee held the No. 2 spot five out of six times, bumped to No. 3 only once by Andy Williams in 2018. Bobby Helms could be the wild card, as he was absent from the top three in 2018 and 2019. I’d bet that Carey and Lee will hold fast but that the third spot will be up for grabs for a new old song over the next few years.
3. Though Mariah’s Christmas classic will be celebrating its 30th birthday in a couple years, there are still only three songs newer than it in the top 40 of this week’s Holiday 100 – Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” (#10), Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (#14) and Justin Bieber’s “Mistletoe” (#40). Why do you think it remains so hard for newer songs — even “newer” songs that are now a decade or two old themselves — to break into the Christmas canon? Do you see it getting easier anytime in the near or even distant future?
Katie Atkinson: There are a lot of people who assume “All I Want” is a Christmas standard, the way it recalls Phil Spector’s 1960s hits for The Ronettes or Darlene Love, and I think that classic sound is what people are yearning for in their holiday listening. The next-closest new song, “Underneath the Tree,” plays the exact same card. So while a few contemporary Christmas songs will break through here and there (*NSYNC’s “Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays” comes to mind as one that burned bright and then fizzled out with the boy-band era), the ones that have longevity are the ones that bring the most Noel nostalgia.
Jason Lipshutz: The magic of holiday songs is in their familiarity — the way we trot them out for a few weeks each year, recognize the time-honored melodies and associate them with a special season. Understandably, that canon is difficult to change, or even increase with new material. There’s no doubt that some new holiday songs will eventually earn that nostalgic glow as more years pass — “Underneath the Tree” feels like a likely candidate to keep growing each year — but the process is slow for a reason, and I doubt it’s one that radically evolves in the coming years.
Glenn Rowley: It’s crazy to think that all three of those “newer” songs are 8-10 years old at this point. I mean, Kelly’s even given us a second (stellar!) Christmas album since she released “Underneath the Tree.” Much like a too-rich cup of cocoa, the biggest obstacle to storming the modern Christmas songbook could be over-saturation. Because from the moment Mariah declares, ‘It’s time,’ there’s a limited number of days to cram in all the holiday music you can handle. And would you rather go for something cozy and familiar or something new?
Andrew Unterberger: My working theory with this is that music fans don’t really ever seek out their own holiday music when they’re young — it’s just something that’s passively in their background of their lives for 1-2 months a year, with selections usually made by folks decades their senior. So everyone just grows up with their parents’ holiday music, and they never really even think twice about it — and when, decades later, it’s their own turn to decide what holiday music is going to get played, that’s still what they sentimentally default to. It takes a truly extraordinary new Christmas song to be as satisfying as that type of nostalgia, and that’s why you only get a handful a decade that prove to have any real staying power.
Christine Werthman: Christmas is a season for nostalgia. It’s not like Halloween, where costumes fluctuate depending on the hottest movie or meme of the moment. In fact, if Christmas were a Halloween costume, it would be a ghost — every single year. Familiarity is key for Christmas success, and I suspect the old guard will be holding down the prime slots on the Holiday 100 for many years to come.
4. We often talk about the possibility of newer songs rising on the Holiday 100, but in truth, it seems like older songs have as good a chance of catching a second wind — particularly in 2022, when new hits can come from any time. Is there a song on this week’s chart from earlier than Mariah Carey’s “Christmas” that you might be looking at as a contender to rise in the holiday rankings in the years to come?
Katie Atkinson: Jose Feliciano’s “Feliz Navidad” peaked at No. 3 on the Holiday 100 back in 2012, but it hasn’t cracked that top three in a while. I think it should rightfully work its way back up, just as Bad Bunny is also bringing Spanish-language hits to the top of our charts. I also think one of my personal favorites, The Ronettes’ “Sleigh Ride,” should finally crack the Holiday 100 top five for the first time (it’s so far peaked at No. 8) because it’s just so fun and festive. Climb aboard the sleigh, people!
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe Wham!’s “Last Christmas” never grows to chart-dominating stature, but I could see that song getting bigger each year, as a holiday song that’s fiercely loved and also ripe for some sort of viral revival. As the years wear on, I could see “Last Christmas” usurping “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” or “Jingle Bell Rock” as one of the three biggest holiday songs of the year, and creating a sort of balance in the sound and thematic scope of the primary holiday trio.
Glenn Rowley: I’m always a proponent of Wham!’s “Last Christmas” getting a second or third (or, you know, thirty-eighth) wind during the month of December. Last year, it reached a new peak of No. 7 on the Hot 100 and this week it’s already sitting at No. 6 on the Holiday tally. Maybe the right sync or TikTok trend can push it even higher in Christmases to come.
Andrew Unterberger: Gonna go with “Linus and Lucy.” It’s maybe not the radio-friendliest of the Holiday perennials, with its lack of lyrics and jarring mid-song shifts in tempo and melody, but it’s beloved by every new generation since A Charlie Brown Christmas‘ 1965 debut, and its association with that classic holiday special gives it extra meme potential. Also, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s entire soundtrack rises higher on the Billboard 200 albums chart each year — it hit the top 10 for the first time last year — so that momentum might carry over to the Hot 100 before too long.
Christine Werthman: Wham!’s “Last Christmas” is currently No. 6, but it was in the top three around this time in 2019. I’d put my chips on that one to sneak its way up the chart in the future, especially if it gets featured in a holiday movie, a la the “All I Want for Christmas Is You” moment in Love Actually.
5. Let’s say Adele, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Bad Bunny and Drake each released a brand-new solo Christmas song on Friday. Which one do you think would be the biggest front-runner for the Holiday 100 No. 1?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going Adele, 100%. Just like her bombastic vocals were a no-brainer for a James Bond theme song 10 years ago, her warm, rich delivery would be tailor-made for a Christmas classic. I’m thinking something more in the understated, bittersweet vein of Judy Garland’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” or Nat King Cole’s “The Christmas Song” than the poppy Mariah route – though a jingly redo of “Rumour Has It” all about Santa Claus could be cute too.
Jason Lipshutz: Give the edge to Adele here — she’s not as prolific as Bad Bunny or Drake, is more of a reliable Hot 100 chart-topper than Beyoncé, and unlike Taylor Swift, has never released a Christmas song. An Adele Christmas single would be a special release from a chart superstar… who also happens to have the type of overwhelming vocal power that a holiday song typically requires. However it sounds, it would have a great shot at No. 1.
Glenn Rowley: Regardless of the song, there’s no stopping Adele the moment she decides to drop an original holiday tune (an eggnog-fueled follow-up to “I Drink Wine,” perhaps?).
Andrew Unterberger: It’s probably Adele — but don’t count out Bad Bunny’s ability to surprise, or Taylor Swift’s will to win.
Christine Werthman: Adele all the way. She has a timeless voice, she transcends generations, and she would likely make something that is contemporary enough for young listeners but classic enough for an older audience to throw into the rotation of holiday standards. As far as knocking out “All I Want for Christmas Is You” from the top spot, though, I’d still give Mariah 70/30 odds to win the No. 1.
In a year full of hits built around samples and interpolations of past megahits, Bebe Rexha and David Guetta‘s “I’m Good (Blue)” still stands out as unusual.
The collab, which borrows the distinctive synth and chorus melody of Eiffel 65’s turn-of-the-century dance-pop smash “Blue (Da Ba Dee),” wasn’t even supposed to be a proper single: It was a demo that was recorded in the mid-’10s and never officially released, until unexpected TikTok virality led to demand for it to be dropped in full. Once it was, it was embraced by streaming audiences and radio programmers, gradually climbing the Billboard Hot 100 and hitting a new peak of No. 7 this week (chart dated Nov. 26).
Which artist stands to gain most from the song’s unexpected success? And is it the end of the trend or just the beginning? Billboard staffers discuss below.
1. “I’m Good” is a 2015-recorded song interpolating a 2000 pop hit with tonight’s-gonna-be-a-good-night lyrics that sound like 2009 that got big after being shared on TikTok in 2022. Does the math add up to you for this one, or are you still having trouble wrapping your head around it?
Katie Atkinson: The math is still not mathing, but it doesn’t need to. The fact is, there have been stranger trajectories to a top 10 Hot 100 hit in 2022 than this one, so I’m just not going to overthink it and just keep dancing. As Bebe told our very own Billboard Pop Shop Podcast (shameless plug), “Let’s just give the people what they want. Let’s not judge it for what it is, and just put it out. It’s just a great, fun record.” Preach.
Katie Bain: There’s been a tidal wave of early 2000s samples/interpolations in dance music in the last year, with Acraze’s 2021 Cherish’-sampling smash “Do It To It” more or less sparking the trend. All of these songs together demonstrate a huge affection for that era and thus also an easy way for producers from across all electronic genres to score relatively easy hits. Guetta has never been afraid to trend-hop or to capitalize, and this one, like so many of his previous monster songs, demonstrates his truly singular ability to craft an earworm — or at least to expand on an already existent earworm. So yes, on paper all the elements add up to this song’s success, although at the same time it still kind of sounds like an algorithm at work.
Jason Lipshutz: Consider “I’m Good” the 2022 version of Måneskin’s “Beggin’,” which became a global smash in 2021… as a cover of a 1967 Four Seasons song… that was originally performed and recorded in 2017. These instances of older singles with funky backstories and recognizable hooks being revived years later, thanks in large part to TikTok, will keep occurring and impacting the Billboard charts in the years to come. As for “I’m Good,” one listen to it (especially if you’re a “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” defender) and it’s easy to wrap your head around why it’s a hit.
Joe Lynch: I think the math adds up in that, not dissimilar to an obscurity such as Edison Lighthouse’s “Love Grows (Where My Rosemary Goes)” having a TikTok moment, Gen Z and the TikTok landscape aren’t interested in what’s now or next these days. With the history of recorded music at their fingertips, any catchy melody they haven’t heard before can become the now or next thing. It doesn’t matter if it’s retro. It might even be a boon.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, I can buy the part about the song existing as an unreleased demo for five years before randomly taking off on TikTok a lot more easily than I can believe that a song that sounds like this — post-peak EDM beats with Black Eyed Peas-type lyrics — is tapping into the 2022 zeitgeist. There hasn’t been a song with this specific sound that’s popped on radio or streaming in a long while, though not quite long enough that I’d imagine folks are already nostalgic for it. It’s a curiously timed success to me.
2. Guetta and Rexha are two of the more indefatigable hitmakers of the last decade-plus, but neither had reached the top 40 in the past four years before this. Which of the two artists does this return to the pop mainstream mean more to, career-wise?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to say Bebe, because I feel like she’s really been the face of this whole thing. We all knew Guetta could make a reliable dance-floor filler, but maybe we’d assumed the time was up for that style on top 40 radio and outside the club. For Bebe, however, the hurdle she’s consistently trying to clear is being a potentially anonymous part of a massive hit song; everyone’s heard a Bebe Rexha song, whether they’ve sought her out or not, but not everyone knows her name or could pick her out of a lineup. This is one more way to introduce herself beyond being a disembodied voice on your radio — like the showcase she got as one of only 11 performances on Sunday’s AMAs. But also: How much more does this woman have to do to prove herself?!
Katie Bain: David Guetta will always be David Guetta, in the sense that he’ll be able to headline global dance clubs and festivals in perpetuity given his litany of hits and ability to keep up with any given of-the-moment dance sound. So while I’m sure he’s enjoying this return to the top 40, particularly in the context of it extending his already considerable track record as a hitmaker, I think Rexha needed it more as she doesn’t yet the legacy, particularly in a specific genre, as her counterpart on this song.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably Rexha. “I’m Good” represents a pleasant surprise for Guetta, but he’s going to be able to play the dance festival circuit with his mountain of hits for years to come. Rexha also has her fair share of successful singles, but being a modern pop artist is all about what you’ve done for the general listening audience lately, and it had been a minute since Rexha had made a real connection at streaming or radio. She does both with “I’m Good,” and it’s a meaningful new win in a career that quietly contains a bunch of them.
Joe Lynch: Bebe for sure. Guetta is a dance music elder statesman with enough cache and hits to keep people paying to see his shows. Rexha, on the other hand, really benefits by having a new hit that can bring her new social engagement, awards show slots and the like.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s gotta be Rexha. While Guetta might not quite have the cultural capital stateside he did a decade ago, he’s still a legacy act at this point, and will probably be a good-sized live draw and decent streaming performer for however long the rest of his career lasts. Rexha still lives hit-to-hit a little bit, and she’s never seemed particularly interested in living her pop career from the sidelines, so it’s not surprising that she’s rejoicing in her unlikely “I’m Good” success like she is.
3. While the song first took off on TikTok and streaming, radio is now the primary driver for its success, as it reaches No. 8 on the Radio Songs chart this week. Does it make sense to you as a contemporary radio smash? Why or why not?
Katie Atkinson: I think familiarity is always going to give you a head-start in 2022 — just look at Jack Harlow’s “First Class.” It also has the “what is this?” factor that might keep someone from changing the radio station immediately. So basically, it makes sense as a “contemporary” radio smash insofar as it has a nostalgic WTF factor that is instantly intriguing.
Katie Bain: As dance-pop and mainstream pop have essentially become the same thing in the last 10 years, I’m not surprised at all that a song that heavily samples a yesteryear hit that itself was a huge radio hit has become a radio hit. (Also shout out to Flume’s 2020 “Blue” edit.)
Jason Lipshutz: I mean… “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” reached No. 2 on the Pop Songs chart, when Eiffel 65 was a total unknown entity to U.S. listeners, so why can’t this facelift of the tune climb as high on top 40 radio? “I’m Good” sounds a little out of step with current pop radio trends, and would have functioned perfectly a decade ago, when Guetta was at the height of his hit-making powers; that said, the tune is undeniable, and sometimes that’s enough.
Joe Lynch: It tracks for me. When you listen to one of those weekend late-night top 40 radio party mixes, songs like the Black Eyed Peas “I Gotta Feeling” (which this lyrically harks back to) have been in consistent rotation (alongside newer top 10s) for the better part of the last decade. The music snoberati may want to believe that silly good-time party songs from the Obama Era are dead and gone, but the truth is that they’ve never been far from radio airwaves, or the playlist at a Chili’s near you.
Andrew Unterberger: Contemporary? In 2012, probably. In 2017, maybe. In 2022, not so much.
4. We’ve spent seemingly the whole year talking about big interpolations in major pop songs, but few if any have relied quite as heavily on their original source material as “I’m Good (Blue).” Does this feel to you like it will lead to similarly built hits in 2023, or is this closer to the end of the line for this strain of early-’20s pop hit?
Katie Atkinson: I don’t see this stopping anytime soon. Whenever a potential shortcut to chart success is unlocked (see also: DJ Khaled’s top five hit “Staying Alive,” Nicki Minaj’s No. 1 “Super Freaky Girl”), the floodgates open. I give this another year.
Katie Bain: Like I mentioned above, this trend, particularly in the dance world, has been such a huge success driver that I have a hard time seeing producers setting down until the well of songs to sample goes dry. (And even then, a lot of them have been sampling the same songs, so the amount of source material available isn’t even necessarily a factor.) There’s obviously the familiarity/nostalgia factor of hearing these old songs again, so I don’t necessarily see the trend waning from a consumer perspective either.
Jason Lipshutz: I believe we are just getting started here. Everyone in the music industry is perpetually thirsty for new hits, and especially lately, the route to scoring them is by reviving old ones — from “Super Freaky Girl” reworking “Super Freak,” to “Vegas” resurrecting “Hound Dog,” to “Cold Heart” and “Hold Me Closer” returning to Elton John’s classics catalog for modern pastiches. One could argue that the increasing reliance on IP in Hollywood — old franchises with familiar characters being revived as safer bets than original storytelling — is coming to the music industry in the form of these interpolations. And some of them will be more successful than others, of course, but I’d bet that there are a lot more coming.
Joe Lynch: Only the beginning. In the first half of the 20th century, it was very common for hit songs to be resurrected every 10, 12 years via the next big thing singer covering it; people knew a good melody that landed once would absolutely land again. In the rock era, when artists became fixated on regarding the past as passé and writing their own songs, that became less true. But after a full decade of the streaming era, audiences take it for granted that old isn’t necessarily bad and what’s cutting edge isn’t necessarily fun, so why not listen to a little bit of the best of everything?
Andrew Unterberger: I’m not sure if this is going to lead to even more hits along these lines, but I’m confident it’s going to lead to more artists attempting them. If two artists who hadn’t had a major hit in 4-5 years could go top 10 with a revived demo, clearly it’s gonna seem like a plausible path to success for a lot of other past (and prospective future) hitmakers as well. Just how much patience the general public is going to have for such future attempts remains to be seen — but so far, so good there.
5. Eiffel 65’s “Blue (Da Ba Dee)”: fun, nostalgic novelty or annoying, dated relic?
Katie Atkinson: Annoying, dated relic. My only fondness for “Blue” is due to my fondness for the 1999/2000 era in general. I’ll take Sisqo’s “Thong Song” over it, honestly. As Bebe and David would say: “I’m good.”
Katie Bain: An eternal banger for anyone who doesn’t take themselves too seriously.
Jason Lipshutz: Fun, nostalgic… banger. “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” is just excellent pop inside and out, an expertly constructed dance single built around the silliest of concepts. Thank you for your service, Eiffel 65!
Joe Lynch: First one. It’s just a delightful lark. And it undeniably holds a nostalgic place in my heart given that it was one of the verrrry few Eurodance songs that made radio headway around the turn of the millennium. And believe me, before you had every song at the tip of your fingertips, you enjoyed the scraps of lesser-heralded genres that radio threw at you (that being said, I did buy the parent album on CD in a mall. Classic Y2K). Plus, I remember seeing a kid ice do an ice-skating routine to this song once that was every bit as sublimely silly as Eiffel 65 itself.
Andrew Unterberger: One of the only pop songs of its era I cannot enjoy on any level. Kill it with fire.
Drake and 21 Savage are both eminently familiar with the top of the Billboard 200 albums chart, with the former artist previously having topped the listing 11 times, and the latter artist twice. So it’s no surprise the two would return to the 200’s pole position (on the chart dated Nov. 19) with the release of their first joint album, Her Loss.
The set’s performance is an impressive one, as it moves 404,000 equivalent album units in its first week — the third-highest total for any album in 2022, and significantly higher than both of the most recent solo efforts from Drake (this June’s Honestly, Nevermind) and 21 Savage (2018’s I Am > I Was). In addition, songs from Her Loss occupy the No. 2 through No. 9 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, the third-most simultaneous real estate in the chart’s top 10 ever occupied by one album, behind Drake’s own Certified Lover Boy in 2021 and Taylor Swift‘s Midnights earlier this month — with the latter set’s lead single, the No. 1-debuting “Anti-Hero,” still holding onto the top spot two weeks later.
What does the set owe its early success to? And are Drake and 21 smarting this week at being denied the Hot 100’s top spot? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Even with the requisite warnings about hip-hop team-up albums often being less than the sum of their parts, Her Loss posts one of 2022’s best first-week numbers this year with its 404,000 equivalent album units moved — nearly double the number of Drake’s prior 2022 set, Honestly, Nevermind, and easily Savage’s best such number to date. What would you consider the biggest factor behind the album’s robust debut?
Rania Aniftos: To be honest – and I don’t mean this as shade – I was surprised the album did so well. For a while, it felt as though Drake wasn’t living up to the quality of some of his past albums like Views, If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late and even Scorpion. And 21 Savage has always been a successful collaborator, but I never thought that his involvement would push such impressive numbers. I’m personally floored, but I might chalk it up to fans wanting to see that old-school Drake they know and love, and really wanted to give Her Loss a try – and, turns out, they loved it.
Carl Lamarre: If you look at their past collaborations with “Sneakin,” “Knife Talk,” and “Jimmy Cooks,” Drake and 21 has had an exceptional track record as a dynamic duo. Their chemistry as a twosome had fans salivating for a more aggressive Drake as they came in droves to see whether Drizzy and 21 could topple the competition. Curiosity sparked the intrigue, especially after Drake and Future’s tight hold in 2015-2016 with What a Time to Be Alive.
Elias Leight: Drake’s Care Package (2019) and Dark Lane Demo Tapes (2020) releases, both of which included old loosies and leaks, didn’t have explosive first weeks. And listeners don’t appear to care over-much for Drake’s experimentation — his dancefloor excursion from earlier this year didn’t put up jaw-dropping numbers, at least by his lofty standards. In recent years, when there’s new Drake that sounds like old Drake, that seems to yield his best commercial results: See Certified Lover Boy (613,000 album equivalent units) and now Her Loss.
Jason Lipshutz: A combination of timing and quality. After Honestly, Nevermind was greeted with a less-than-stellar reception from longtime Drake fans — except for “Jimmy Cooks,” the album’s late change-up featuring 21 Savage — the decision to quickly return with a full album of 21 Savage team-ups and effectively build upon the “Jimmy Cooks” momentum represented a commercial masterstroke. And then, happily, the album was one of Drake’s hungriest, most focused and overall best projects in the past five years, causing Her Loss to stream incredibly well throughout its first chart week and score a big No. 1 debut.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s the right album at the right time. Drake and 21 Savage have always been a winning combination, we hadn’t heard much from Savage in the last couple years, and a rare Drake left turn was always going to come with a not-long-after course correction, especially after the prior album’s reception was much chillier than the consistently successful superstar was accustomed to. They brought the energy, they brought the bars, and they brought the (mostly unfortunate) talking points — streams in massive numbers were bound to follow.
2. Though obviously a major commercial success for both, which of the two rappers would you say benefits more from the mighty Her Loss bow?
Rania Aniftos: Drake! Having two albums dominate the Hot 100 top 10 in the past few years is a major accomplishment and solidifies that he’s not going anywhere, despite some ridicule and memes on TikTok.
Carl Lamarre: Easily 21 Savage. I love the guy, but lately, he’s had too much dip on his chip. First, he thinks he can pummel Kodak Black in a Verzuz battle, and then, he slings darts in the direction of Nas by calling him irrelevant. All of this happened in a week, and why? Because having Drake as his armor and mouthpiece gave him Thanos-level confidence.
Elias Leight: On the one hand, Drake’s first-week numbers have been up and down in recent years across a variety of different types of releases — 109,000 album equivalent units for Care Package, 223,000 for Dark Lane Demo Tapes, 613,000 for Certified Lover Boy (2021), 204,000 for Honestly, Nevermind in June — so 404,000 helps to stay the course. On the other hand, 404,000 album-equivalents is more than twice 21 Savage’s previous first-week high-water-mark, and through his Drake affiliation, he’s probably reaching more casual hip-hop fans who aren’t as familiar with his past work. 21 Savage has gained more than 10 million monthly listeners on Spotify since the release of Her Loss, according to Chartmetric, while Drake has gained around 7 million.
Jason Lipshutz: Drake. Honestly, Nevermind was a detour away from hip-hop for the biggest hip-hop artist in the world, and it didn’t connect with fans (outside of the one song that sounded nothing like the rest of it, of course). I doubt anyone paying attention believed that Drake had fallen off due to one underwhelming project, but Her Loss stamps out those concerns quickly and efficiently, and continues one of the most remarkable commercial runs in the history of popular music. 21 Savage sounds great on Her Loss and undoubtedly gained some new fans, but Drake gets a more crucial W with the album.
Andrew Unterberger: Drake. It’s a win for both, but this won’t change a ton for 21 Savage, who would prob be pushed for best supporting actor and not best actor were this set Oscar-eligible. For Drake, it ends his 2022 on a (commercial) high note and once again proves that he on the rare occasions he does take something vaguely resembling an L — and worth remembering that said “L” still came with simultaneous No. 1s on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 — he’s never stayed down for long.
3. Just a year and a half ago, occupying eight of the top 10 spots simultaneously on the Hot 100 would be an absurdly historic achievement – now, it’s not the biggest Hot 100 bombing either of Drake’s career or of pop music this year (or even this month). Does Her Loss grabbing this week’s 2-9 spots on the chart still feel like major headline news to you, or is it just par for the course for Drake and stars of his level at this point?
Rania Aniftos: It still feels like major headline news to me, only because it’s still so rare and Drake has done it not once, but twice. I never want to get desensitized to such accomplishments, because it really is cool that so many fans flooded in to listen to a new album because they love the artist so much.
Carl Lamarre: It’s still an incredible feat, and even more for Drake, knowing he could do it twice. After Bad Bunny’s fireball Un Verano Sin Ti blasted the Billboard 200, I wonder if he can muster up a similar run a la Drizzy because of his new-found superstardom. Going forward, more artists will probably eschew the idea of releasing anywhere near the behemoths named Drake, Bunny, and Taylor because of their sheer dominance.
Elias Leight: Commanding a large swath of the top ten seems increasingly common for debut albums from heavy hitters. The bigger challenge is sticking around: Drake enjoyed nine of the top 10 slots after Certified Lover Boy debuted, including No. 1, but nine shrank to three in week two, and he gave up No. 1. He nabbed three of the top 10 spots on the chart after Honestly, Nevermind, but in week two, three shrank to one, and he ceded control of the top spot again. It will be interesting to see how the top ten looks on next week’s chart.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s still major headline news — although it feels like these top 10 floods are becoming more commonplace, the reality is that Taylor Swift and Drake are the two artists who could reliably pull off this feat, and they just happened to release big (even by their standards) projects two weeks apart. If Swift and Drake hypothetically don’t release new albums within the next few years, then… we might not see this again for the next few years! What Drake just achieved is still wildly impressive, even if Swift matched him a few frames back.
Andrew Unterberger: Crazy to say, but I think it’s close to par for the course at this point. Of course, when we say “Drake and stars of his level,” we’re not talking about more than five artists total — and maybe as few as just him and Swift — so even if it’s not a particularly jaw-dropping accomplishment for them anymore, it’s still not one a whole lot of other artists are likely matching anytime soon.
4. Despite Drake and 21 Savage’s Hot 100 takeover, they’re still held off the coveted No. 1 spot by “Anti-Hero,” from Drake’s Republic labelmate Taylor Swift — who released no less than five separate remixes for the song released for sale on Swift’s webstore, helping add to the song’s best-since-2017 weekly sales total of 327,000. If you’re Drake (or 21 Savage, but mostly Drake), does it sting to lose out on the dual No. 1, or are you too busy celebrating your other accomplishments of the week to notice much?
Rania Aniftos: It clearly stings, because Drake was shamelessly petty about it on his IG Stories.
Carl Lamarre: Drake was a bit salty, especially when he reposted the Hot 100 charts on his stories and blocked out Taylor’s No. 1 win with different emojis. I can’t blame him: He’s a competitor and relishes being the top dog in the music industry. Drake knows he’s the emperor of rap, but I wonder if Taylor and even Bad Bunny’s success this year has him questioning his game plan going into the future from a mainstream level.
Elias Leight: Considering that Drake has 11 Number One hits already, including one from earlier this year, and has already set an absurd number of records for performance on the Hot 100, he’ll be fine.
Jason Lipshutz: Because of the mini-comeback that Her Loss represents for Drake following Honestly, Nevermind, I’d guess that losing out on another Hot 100 No. 1 doesn’t matter as much as ending this year with another huge project and a flood of top 10 hits. Plus, “Jimmy Cooks” hitting No. 1 for Drake and 21 Savage earlier this year lessens the disappointment for the lack of a chart-topper with this debut week. And who knows? “Rich Flex” certainly isn’t lagging in streams; “Anti-Hero” will be tough to dislodge from No. 1 for a while, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they get there in future weeks.
Andrew Unterberger: He absolutely cares, and so does Swift. It’s a fascinating showdown between two of the most chart-conscious superstars of the 21st century, and it’ll be very very interesting to see what (if any) future developments this leads to in the relationship between very arguably the two biggest names in the last 15 years of popular music.
5. While the commercial response to the album has been overwhelmingly positive, the critical notices have been considerably more mixed, largely due to Drake’s questionably pointed lyrical barbs at various real-life pop culture figures — most notably Megan Thee Stallion. Does this stuff tarnish the album’s triumphs to you?
Rania Aniftos: One hundred percent. Misogyny and undermining a Black woman’s traumatic experience is never OK. Period.
Carl Lamarre: I come from the era of letting it fly in rap. Despite the overwhelming disdain from critics about Drake’s barbs, it shouldn’t take away the sheen and gloss of this album. It’s an excellent project that shows the potency of Drake and 21 as a fierce pairing. And though Drake enjoyed his role as the villain on this album, I’m curious to see if he continues as the genre’s leading habitual line-stepper in years to come.
Elias Leight: From 2011 to 2015, Drake was critically beloved and commercially dominant. Since then, his albums have been less thrilling — especially when he’s not committed to experimenting with different styles, like Afrobeats or house — even as the album-equivalent-unit tally remains eye-watering. The barbs are tiresome; behind them is an intermittently invigorating but mostly underwhelming album.
Jason Lipshutz: A little, although this has been the case for Drake throughout his career — trying to square his obvious brilliance as a pop music creator with his occasionally obnoxious and morally objectionable lyrics — and it’s been the case with countless other artists whom I love and admire while also vehemently disagreeing with some of their messages. The Megan lyric is clearly lunkheaded, and there are a few others on Her Loss that have been (and deserve to be) called out; everyone has a different threshold for enjoying the art around those lyrics, and while I still have Her Loss on repeat, I don’t begrudge anyone who’s rebuked it.
Andrew Unterberger: It stinks, but it’s almost certainly not by accident: Drake knows the lyrics of his that are going to get people talking, and he’s clearly decided that leaning into the villain role in hip-hop is the smart long-term play for his career prospects as he dives into the back half of his 30s. He’s probably right — Drake usually is. But it’s still pretty unfortunate that a guy who, lest we forget, did rise to superstardom not only in large part because of his relatability, but because of emotionally visceral collaborations with female co-stars like Nicki Minaj and Rihanna, should make such rampant misogyny not just an occasional byproduct of his brand (and it always has been that), but something more like a governing principle.
It’s all in the game to a certain extent, sure, and there absolutely is room in rap for the Bad Guy, which is something both of the artists Drake has teamed up with for full albums understand as well as anyone. But there’s a recklessness to the barb-throwing here that feels decidedly uncharming coming from a guy who barely ever leaves the winner’s circle; Megan lyrics actively make an already-ugly situation worse, and for so little reason. It just isn’t worth the headlines, but this is what happens when a rapper of Drake’s station starts not to give a f–k and stops fearing the consequences.
The wait is over: Rihanna is back with a new solo single. We hadn’t heard new music from the global superstar outside of a spare feature here and there since the ANTI era in 2016, but now there’s Rih’s new ballad “Lift Me Up,” from the Black Panther: Wakanda Forever soundtrack, written partly in tribute to the late franchise star Chadwick Boseman.
This week, the song debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100, held off from the top spot by Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero” (lead single from her juggernaut Midnights album). It’s also the best-starting radio single of Rihanna’s career, debuting at No. 6 on Billboard‘s Radio Songs chart.
How should Rihanna feel about this chart start? And what can fans expect from her from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Rihanna’s first new single in six years just misses becoming her 15th Hot 100 No. 1, debuting at No. 2 behind Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero” in the latter’s second week. On a scale of 1-10, how excited do you think she should be with this showing?
Lyndsey Havens: 10. Debuting at No. 2 with a Taylor Swift song — from a record-breaking album — is basically like debuting at No. 1. Especially considering, though beautiful, “Lift Me Up” is a fairly minimal, downtempo ballad it’s even more impressive to know it debuted this high on the strength of Rihanna’s name and voice alone.
Cydney Lee: 9 or 10, only because I feel like any artist should be excited about an accomplishment or win, no matter how big or small or what caliber of artist they are. Clearly, garnering No. 1 hits is a norm for Rihanna, but considering how long it’s been since she dropped music, debuting at No. 2 after all these years shows she still has it. One thing about Rihanna that separates her from the rest is that she’s managed to stay relevant despite not dropping any music, thanks to her other business ventures and showing up her for fans in ways other artists don’t. Not to mention maintaining a very public relationship and becoming a mother. “Lift Me Up” debuting at No. 2 and not No. 1 could be a timing thing, but for this to be so high as a single and as a part of a movie soundtrack, is still very impressive and worth celebrating.
Jason Lipshutz: A 6. While a No. 2 debut is an impressive feat for any artist, particularly one who has been largely away from a solo music career for the past six years, Rihanna has collected enough No. 1 smashes by now to reasonably expect her long-awaited to debut in the top spot. Poor timing is the culprit here — even though Swift’s “Anti-Hero” is in its second week, it’s proven a streaming juggernaut in its first couple of frames — and ultimately, the No. 2 debut of “Lift Me Up” demonstrates how much excitement there is around Rihanna’s studio return, as she approach the Super Bowl halftime show and (hopefully) more music releases.
Neena Rouhani: How excited she should be is a hard call to make. How excited do I think she actually is? Honestly, a 5. Rih-Rih is a mommy. And judging by how the superstar mogul pours herself into everything she does, I imagine she’s most focused on her baby boy right now. Not to mention the long hiatus we all painfully endured–it’s clear she has her head and hands tied up in the other endeavors that made her a billionaire. Between Fenty Beauty, Savage x Fenty, prepping for her Super Bowl headlining debut, and co-parenting alongside A$AP Rocky, I think she has bigger fish to fry than being excited about nearly reaching her 15th Hot 100 No. 1. (No offense, Billboard.) Now, if and when the album comes? That’ll be another story.
Andrew Unterberger: A 7.5. Rihanna is definitely on that always-getting-shorter shortlist of artists who could reasonably expect to debut at No. 1 nearly every time out, but this is the occasion that would get the asterisk here — a relatively low-key ballad, for a movie soundtrack, going against the biggest song from the year’s biggest album. No. 2 is still a very fine showing for “Lift Me Up,” and Rihanna has never seemed like the No. 1 at All Costs sort of pop star anyway.
2. “Lift Me Up” is a one-off single from the Black Panther: Wakanda Forever soundtrack and has not been announced as the beginning of any kind of new album era for Rihanna. Do you think it tells us anything about the sonic or artist direction she may be moving in if and when she does make a full return?
Lyndsey Havens: Absolutely not. I do think she may be more in her lullaby bag due to being a new mom, but in terms of a new era for Rihanna the artist… I don’t see this as being it. And I think that’s the point… there’s a particular genius in returning with a soundtrack song for a universally beloved franchise. It’s an appetizer that satisfies the craving for new Rihanna music without saying much about what the entree will be — or when it will even be served.
Cydney Lee: Maybe, but I’m leaning towards no. This song sounds like it was tailor-made for this movie, considering that it sort of doubles as a tribute to Chadwick Boseman. She may have a few songs similar to this on her eventual new album, but I’m not sure if this sonic choice will the “theme” of it per se. I’d be happy with the vocal runs, but I would also love to hear some spunk when we do hear from her again.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s worth remembering that, before the album drought that fans are currently experiencing, Rihanna made the Navy wait a little over three years between 2012’s Unapologetic and 2016’s Anti — and in that gap, she released a handful of one-off singles (“FourFiveSeconds,” “Bitch Better Have My Money,” “American Oxygen”) that, in retrospect, didn’t really tell us much about the sound and scope of Anti. So, while “Lift Me Up” reaffirms Rihanna as one of the most compelling vocalists in modern popular music, I’d guess that the soundtrack single itself doesn’t tip off too much about her upcoming artistic direction.
Neena Rouhani: No. I don’t think she’d give it away like that. I think this was a nice effort to get the ball rolling and put herself out there again as an artist, but I don’t think we should view this song as indicative of anything. Ask yourself, would Beyonce or Adele use a soundtrack moment to introduce their new personal sound and direction to the world? I think not. And Rihanna wouldn’t, either.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t necessarily read a ton into it, but… I also wouldn’t be surprised if the self-proclaimed savage of the Anti era does sound a little mellower on the whole next time we hear a full statement from her. “Lift Me Up” sounds like it was recorded deep in the throes of domestic bliss, and from all public indicators, that does seem to be where Rihanna is spending most of her time these days. That’s not to say she’ll always be there, or that she won’t still get out every once in a while to pour it up good and proper, but Rih has always connected with fans through her authenticity, and this may just be the most authentic version of her at the moment.
3. “Lift” has had a dynamite start at radio, becoming just the fourth song since 1998 to hit the chart’s top 10 in its first week. Do you see this as a sign that the song will end up being a long-lasting hit, or do you anticipate enthusiasm for it on the airwaves will fade quickly?
Lyndsey Havens: I could be wrong, but I don’t see this fitting into Rih’s Super Bowl set and I think at that point, her catalog of mega-hits will eclipse the growth of “Lift.” I can see it sticking around on radio perhaps — and certainly sustaining following the premier of Black Panther this weekend — but don’t necessarily see it becoming a long-lasting streaming beast.
Cydney Lee: The radio stats are always interesting to me because I don’t listen to it too much anymore. But I feel like its success on this medium might depend on how long the movie stays in the forefront of peoples’ minds. Black Panther and its soundtrack being spearheaded by Kendrick Lamar was a moment for the Black community especially. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is and will also be a moment — but in a different way, because while the sequel itself is highly anticipated, there’s the added curiosity of how this film was made and how the story will be told without its main figure, Chadwick Boseman. The context is just overall sadder.
Even though its Rihanna’s first drop in forever, I do feel like “Lift Me Up” might fade on the radio in due time, but all depends on how long people will be talking about the movie. Either that OR it will stay around for a while because it is one of the few crumbs she has given fans over the years, and people will latch onto it.
Jason Lipshutz: Not many popular artists can be expected to make a ballad work at top 40 radio, but Rihanna has proven herself in that elite class, considering the success of smashes like “Stay,” “Take a Bow” and “Love on the Brain.” I could see “Lift Me Up” enjoying a prolonged run at the format, which is undoubtedly hungry to reincorporate one of its biggest superstars of the past 15 years and balance out some of the more uptempo songs currently in rotation. Maybe it won’t be a redefining hit at top 40, but don’t be surprised to hear “Lift Me Up” at pop radio long after Black Panther: Wakanda Forever leaves theaters.
Neena Rouhani: This isn’t at all indicative of my opinions on Rihanna’s artistic endurance, but more a commentary on the current musical climate – it’ll fade. Because, what doesn’t fade? There aren’t many songs in the last few years — post-2020 I’ll say — that have had staying power. The cycle is just too fast, the market too saturated. Now, do I think it’ll endure amongst her dedicated fanbase? Absolutely. It’s a great ballad and sits well within her catalog. It also really exemplifies how much she’s grown vocally during her absence. But I don’t know how long it’ll last on radio.
Andrew Unterberger: I think the variety of radio formats that appear to be trying it out bodes pretty well for it. I don’t know if it’ll be particularly enduring on streaming — it already seems to be fading pretty quickly there — but this might be more of an adult-oriented hit anyway, which is fine. We’ll probably be hearing more from it come award season at the very least. (Could we get performances from Rihanna at the Super Bowl and the Oscars in back-to-back months?)
4. Along with OneRepublic’s “I Ain’t Worried” (from Top Gun: Maverick) and Doja Cat’s “Vegas” (from Elvis), we now have three very different songs from three very different movies hitting the Hot 100’s top 10 in the past month. Is this a meaningful trend to you, or is it just a fluke of timing?
Lyndsey Havens: I honestly hadn’t thought about the possibility of this being a trend, but now that’s been mentioned… I guess it could be related to life being open again and people seeing movies and so on. But I don’t think there’s much more to it than that — as mentioned, these three songs are totally different and popular for totally different reasons: The whistling on “I Ain’t Worried,” the grungy revamp on an Elvis hit and the long-awaited return of one of music’s biggest stars. All hits in their own right.
Cydney Lee: This seems meaningful and reflective of how music is consumed. To me, it seems like people are paying more attention to movie soundtracks these days, especially if the soundtrack features a brand-new song by an artist and not just a synch of a song that’s already out. With the way fandom is now, it makes sense that songs like these would be in the top 10 because fans (and stans) seem to jump on any new music their favorite artist releases. Especially, if it’s an artist who hasn’t dropped anything in years, hence Rihanna.
Jason Lipshutz: A fluke — “I Ain’t Worried” represents a traditional soundtrack hit in that its placement in Top Gun: Maverick has fueled its success, but “Vegas” growing into a top 10 hit speaks more to Doja Cat’s current red-hot singles streak than its usage in Elvis, and “Lift Me Up” is being heralded as Rihanna’s return before we even hear how it’s synched in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. With all that said, movie theaters have been back in full swing in 2022, and it will be interesting to see how soundtrack singles are treated in a post-lockdown world. Maybe 2023 and beyond will include more big swings to try and mine the next “I Ain’t Worried,” and, as Stranger Things proved this year, those big synchs don’t need to be heard in theaters (or new songs, for that matter).
Neena Rouhani: I think it’s meaningful, but feels more like a revival than a recent phenomenon. In 2012, Adele’s “Skyfall” was a Hot 100 top ten hit showered with accolades, while later in 2015, The Weeknd’s “Earned It” hit No. 1 on a number of charts and won a Grammy. Then, in 2018 we saw it again with “Shallow” by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper from A Star Is Born. I think we’re maybe seeing it at a more rapid pace, and I don’t see it slowing down anytime soon.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s mostly a fluke, but it’s a good reminder that movie soundtracks can still be fertile ground for artists looking to stay in the mix in between albums (like Doja Cat), to reintroduce themselves to a wider audience after a fade from the mainstream (like OneRepublic) or to do a soft launch after a long period of dormancy (like Rihanna). And it’s good news for us as fans, too; it’s always a positive thing for the health and vibrancy of pop music when soundtracks are impacting the culture like this.
5. Place your prop bets: Will we get more new Rihanna music before her Super Bowl gig in February? (And if so, how much/what form will it take?)
Lyndsey Havens: Hahahaha no.
Cydney Lee: Ha! No. Maybe a single, but even that seems too ambitious.
Jason Lipshutz: Yes. This is just a guess, but my bet would be that we get a splashy uptempo single in the weeks ahead of the Super Bowl, and that “Lift Me Up” represents the poignant place-setter for that main course. Rihanna could easily fill a Super Bowl setlist with her many hits and use “Lift Me Up” as the one tearjerker moment… but come on, we all want a danceable new Rihanna single, and I’d bet that Rihanna knows exactly what we want.
Neena Rouhani: Not only has she already squashed the new album rumors, but I don’t see a world where she releases an album before the performance. Maybe a single. Or she could treat the Super Bowl gig a la Kendrick Lamar for his headlining performance at Day n Vegas, where he used it as a closing of a chapter, highlighting all of his career achievements up until that point. I think it’ll signify the beginning of a new era. And I look forward to seeing how she uses that insanely large platform to make a statement — especially considering her past comments about turning down the 2019 Super Bowl to avoid being a “sellout.”
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say one more new single. Why not?
Over a decade and a half into her career as a Billboard hitmaker, Taylor Swift is currently enjoying her best week ever on the charts.
Her Midnights album makes history this week, officially moving 1.578 million equivalent album units in its debut frame — the best opening bow not just for any Swift album, but for any album released in the past 20 years outside of Adele’s 25. And over on the Hot 100, Midnights becomes the first album (and Swift the first artist) to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 simultaneously, led by lead single “Anti-Hero” at No. 1.
Why is Taylor Swift posting these jaw-dropping numbers this deep into her career? And will Midnights be remembered by fans as a career high for her? Billboard writers answer these questions and more below.
1. Taylor Swift makes a historic showing on both the albums and songs fronts this week, moving 1.5 million units of her Midnights album — most of her career and most for any non-Adele artist of the last 20 years — while also becoming the first artist ever to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 simultaneously. Which, in your mind, is the more impressive achievement of the two?
Katie Atkinson: They’re both massive, but I’m going to have to go with occupying the full Hot 100 top 10. Drake’s come close, holding nine of the 10 spots, but all 10 is a special kind of domination. It’s obviously a symptom of the way we consume music and the way we track listening these days – it’s a fun game to think about what other artists might have held those top 10 spots at once if streaming were around in earlier eras – but being able to plant her flag as the first artist to ever achieve the feat is something no one can take away from her.
Hannah Dailey: The simultaneous top 10 spots. As mind-bogglingly impressive as her sales record is, there’s something about the recognition that the Hot 100 gives an artist that feels even more special. The 1.5 million units shows that Swifties are showing out for their favorite artist, but the chart proves that she pretty much has the whole world listening, too.
Jason Lipshutz: Somehow, becoming the first artist to occupy all 10 spots in the Hot 100’s top 10 — a singular feat in the chart’s 64-year history — is only the second most impressive chart achievement by Taylor Swift this week. Moving 1.5 million units of an album in a single week didn’t seem like something that could ever happen again, especially after Adele’s 30 fell short of the seven-figure mark last fall. Not only did Swift score the biggest album debut in nearly seven years, she also set a new career best with Midnights — mind-boggling stuff, considering how many enormous eras already precede her.
Joe Lynch: A cogent point could be made either way, but I’m gonna say the 1.5 milli first week. At this point in this music industry, it’s not so much “who can sell a million copies in one week?” but “can anyone sell a million copies in one week?”. I might be overstating it (obviously, Adele exists) but even coming close to the 1M mark is something 99% of pop stars simply cannot do in 2022. The fact that Taylor sailed past it – and in physical sales, too – is a massive accomplishment.
Andrew Unterberger: The Hot 100 record is more historic — and very literally unbeatable — but the album units are more impressive. I mean, we just had Drake secure nine of the top 10 a year ago; we haven’t seen anyone else even get within half a million of that first-week number this decade. Hell, not long ago some of us at Billboard wondered if we would ever see another million-unit first week, with digital sales numbers so down, ticket/merch bundles no longer contributing to sales totals, and streaming volume more spread out among different artists and genres every year. And then Midnights motors past the one million mark in only a couple days and just keeps going. It’s Adele-esque, really.
2. For Midnights to make such a resounding bow in 2022, a full 16 years into Swift’s career as a recording artist (and nearly as many as a global superstar), is pretty remarkable. What do you think the biggest reason is for Swift experiencing this current commercial renaissance?
Katie Atkinson: There are so many factors, but I think if you look at her last four releases – 2020’s Folklore and Evermore followed by the first two Taylor’s Version re-records, of Fearless and Red, in 2021 – that quartet of albums created an excitement around her that can only come from an artist with a decade-and-a-half of history with fans. She started by taking a musical and narrative left turn with her folky, more fictional pandemic albums, then reminded everyone how incomparable her back-catalog is (with some bonus and expanded tracks from those eras to boot), only to announce a brand-new album with a month-and-a-half heads-up but zero pre-release singles or videos. What would it sound like? What would it be about? What exactly is “Vigilante S–t”? Swift is a master of building buzz, and the last two years set the table for one of her buzziest albums yet.
Hannah Dailey: The most important gift Taylor brings to the table has always been her songwriting. When an artist is best-known for their vocals or performance abilities, there’s a lot less space to stay fresh or adapt to the times — there’s only so much one can do to elevate an already great voice, for example. But because Taylor’s greatest talent lies in something as infinite as language and story telling, she will always be able to find opportunities to write in ways that are new, fresh and reflective of the changing appetites of listeners.
As long as she stays as self aware as she is in regards to her strengths, a commercial renaissance will never be out of the question for Taylor. I think she could just as likely experience unprecedented levels of success with her next album, and her next album after that, and so on.
Jason Lipshutz: Pinpointing one reason for this unprecedented run is difficult, considering the amount of fan engagement, marketing acumen, collaborator savvy and attention to detail that Swift has demonstrated. Yet at the center of it all is the music, which remains as fresh, exciting and musically adventurous as any diehard fan could hope for this far into Swift’s career. Different eras speak to different listeners, but none of them are stale, and as such, they’re going to keep being rapturously received.
Joe Lynch: This is a great question *he said, buying himself time as he puzzles this out*. I think Taylor is soaring even by her standards because of the (Taylor’s Version) train. Each release brings with it a wave of nostalgia for her past eras and particularly in the case of Red (TV), paints a fuller picture in screaming color. You couple that with her pandemic reinvention as an introspective folkie and you end with an artist who is simultaneously relevant and nostalgia-inducing. That’s a winning combo.
Andrew Unterberger: For me, it’s the cash-in on years of build up from the FolkMore era of 2020 and the Taylor’s Versions duo of 2021 — none of which were really primed to pull in these kinds of numbers, but all of which were big successes on their own terms, and beloved by fans. Taylor has gone through periods with bigger pop hits and where she’s been more central to popular music in general, but her overall approval rating has arguably never been higher. She was due for an album like this to drop — with full advance warning this time — and just steamroll over everything.
3. “Anti-Hero” becomes Swift’s fourth single of the decade to debut at No. 1, all the same week as the debut of their respective parent albums on the Billboard 200. Each of the first three lasted just the one week on top — do you think “Anti-Hero” will also fall off, or do you anticipate a longer run there?
Katie Atkinson: I think it will have a longer run, but I’m only giving it two weeks up top — and maybe not even consecutive. With Rihanna’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever track dropping last Friday and Drake and 21 Savage’s joint album dropping this week, she has some real competition — not to mention Mariah Carey’s looming Christmas domination. But the way “Anti-Hero” has harnessed the power of TikTok and social media in general with its very meme-able chorus and the fact that airplay will no doubt keep growing for the song, it could have another week (or weeks) at No. 1.
Hannah Dailey: I can see “Anti-Hero” falling off the top spot. It has the same ambiguous quality of the singles from her past three albums in that it feels more like a part belonging to a greater body (its parent album) rather than a stand-alone body itself. It’s a good tune, but I don’t predict people will continue listening to it any more than they listen to the other 12 tracks on Midnights.
Jason Lipshutz: Buckle up, because “Anti-Hero” is about to enjoy a prolonged run atop the Hot 100, if early streaming and radio numbers (and the song’s catchiness) are any indication. Top 40 radio has been ready to embrace a new Swift pop single, listeners are gobbling up on the song on streaming services, and by the time you’ve finished reading this sentence, a new TikTok has been created with “Anti-Hero” as its soundtrack. If the over-under is 10 weeks at No. 1 for “Anti-Hero,” I’m taking the over.
Joe Lynch: I could see a couple weeks. I imagine it will build at radio – and that her second-week streaming numbers will still be massive – but I don’t see it being a long-haul Hot 100 topper.
Andrew Unterberger: Katie’s right that the upcoming competition this song is going to face will be fierce — starting this week with Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” — but I still think all signs point to this being a long-lasting No. 1, even if it its run gets interrupted once or twice. We could see it become the new “As It Was,” where for months, whenever there isn’t an obvious challenger to its top-dog status, it’s almost No. 1 by default. I’d currently bet on a nine-week run, but that may ultimately end up looking like a pretty conservative estimate.
4. While the commercial impact of Midnights is unquestionable, the legacy of the album within her catalog — particularly among fans — still remains to be seen. It’s still extremely early to call, but after about a week and a half with the album, how do you anticipate Midnights generally being remembered a decade or two down the line?
Katie Atkinson: I think a big portion of the massive commercial impact of the album is the positive word-of-mouth around it. But if we’re talking about ranking the album amidst her peerless catalog, it gets a bit dicier. I would place it above Lover for sure, but would I rank it above reputation? (Midnights and reputation almost feel like sister albums to me in some respects, so it’s tough to say.) And I definitely can’t rank it above 1989 or Red, and I think the pandemic pair are superior for me too – so it might be right smack-dab in the middle.
Hannah Dailey: Midnights will go down in history as an epic return to form. In the years leading up to its release, Taylor spent so much time trying on different hats, from experimenting with new sounds and fiction-based songwriting on Folklore and Evermore (which, in spite of their popularity, will always feel like temporary sidesteps off her charted path) to trying her hand at rerecording her old albums, Fearless and Red. With Midnights, Taylor re-embraced the hat that fits her best: writing best-selling, autobiographical songs about love, identity, growing up and heartbreak.
Jason Lipshutz: That’s the most interesting piece of this Midnights commercial bonanza to me — on paper, this is a minor work from Swift, shorter than most of her other opuses and arriving in the middle of her re-recording project. But Midnights is no stopgap, based on the response to her return to pop following the Folklore/Evermore era; if I were to guess, I’d say Midnights will be remembered as a more appealingly rhythmic version of her Reputation/Lover sound, highlighted by “Anti-Hero,” one of the biggest hits of Swift’s career.
Joe Lynch: It really is too early to tell, but I think it will live as a fan favorite — but certainly not any fans’ absolute favorite Taylor Swift album. One thing working in its favor, imo, is that of the many Swifties I’ve spoken to about it, everyone seems to have a different top 3 from Midnights. Unlike a hit album where everyone tends to agree that the same 3-4 tunes are the best, Midnights seems to connect with her listeners in a way that invites a little more fan ownership of the project.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s going to join reputation as the two Taylor albums whose actual musical content tends to get overshadowed in discussion by their, well, reputations. But reputation is one of my personal favorites of her catalog, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Midnights ends up falling in not too far behind it.
5. Is Taylor Swift the biggest pop star in the world right now?
Katie Atkinson: There’s a case to be made for three other artists who’ve released albums this year – Harry Styles, Bad Bunny and Beyoncé – but I think this chart command, and honestly overall command of the pop culture conversation, places the crown squarely back on Taylor Swift’s head.
Hannah Dailey: Unquestionably. Whether it’s sales, relevancy, or ability to inspire discourse, debate and conspiracy theories, she’s unmatched. Her pop stardom is especially heightened when you compare her staying power to the artists who, for many years, shared the league with her. Katy Perry hasn’t had a top 10 hit since 2017, and Gaga has spent the past few years splitting her focus across jazz, film scoring, acting and beauty products. That’s not to downplay how majorly successful those women are in their own rights; Taylor is just unique in that her continuous success has always revolved around the one thing she’s been doing from the very beginning: songwriting.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s her, hi, she’s the biggest, it’s her. Place the song and album numbers, which exist in a class of their own, to the side for a second — no one is dominating the cultural conversation quite like Swift upon a new album release, which remains a singular event in popular music. Swift is at the top, and will be for the foreseeable future.
Joe Lynch: If the operative words here are “biggest” and “pop star,” I don’t see how anyone could reasonably argue with that assertion unless they just get off on being contrarian. Kinda hard to argue with her ongoing numbers lately.
Andrew Unterberger: Yes.
Few rappers have made the jump to popular music’s A-list as successfully this decade as Atlanta rapper Lil Baby, whose 2020 album My Turn topped the Billboard 200 albums chart for five weeks and spawned major hits like “Emotionally Scarred,” “Woah,” and (from its deluxe edition) “We Paid” and “The Bigger Picture.”
This month, Lil Baby returns with that set’s proper follow-up, It’s Only Me — which was preceded with a slow trickle of one- and two-off single releases. The set bows atop the Billboard 200 this week with 216,000 equivalent album units moved and all 23 tracks appearing on the Billboard Hot 100, making it one of the year’s most dominant streaming releases.
Is the album a step up for Lil Baby? And where would we have him go next? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. It’s been two years since My Turn officially introduced Lil Baby as a solo superstar — does this reception for It’s Only Me tell you that his status has grown, fallen, or maintained in the years since?
Rania Aniftos: Grown! A second album as a solo star topping the Billboard 200 is an impressive feat, proving that it wasn’t just hype that launched My Turn to the top of the chart. It’s the fact that he’s a full-blown artist with fans that love his music, and this confirms his staying power in the music world.
Carl Lamarre: For someone who amassed superstar success in 2020, I think Baby’s appeal has grown since then, especially knowing he doesn’t have a traditional hit record behind this album. When Baby trucked his way into rap supremacy, he was armed with a bevy of singles like “We Paid,” “The Bigger Picture,” and “Emotionally Scarred.” This time around, he doesn’t have any surefire hits, but his consistency post My Turn has garnered loyalty from his core fanbase, along with new fans he’s picked up on the road.
Jason Lipshutz: Grown. Lil Baby has a much bigger profile than he did two-and-a-half years ago, with more hits, high-wattage collaborations, larger performance venues, and now, an even bigger No. 1 album debut on the Billboard 200. My Turn was the project that lit the fuse for Lil Baby as a modern hip-hop superstar, and It’s Only Me continues his prolonged explosion.
Andrew Unterberger: Maintained — which is hard enough to do, especially when nothing you’ve released in the last two years has really cut through in a major way, and the streaming ecosystem is constantly shifting behind you. Lil Baby appears to be established enough now to not really have to worry about pushing back against the tides; an enviable spot for 99% of rappers right now.
Christine Werthman: Grown. 2020 was a banner year for Lil Baby, as My Turn debuted at the top of the Billboard 200 with 197,000 equivalent album units earned — and then he just kept going, as “The Bigger Picture” turned into an anthem for those marching in Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020, and was nominated for two awards at the 2021 Grammys. Luminate named My Turn the biggest album of the year in 2020, and this year, it was certified quadruple platinum on Feb. 28, exactly two years from its release. The new set, It’s Only Me, once again debuts at No. 1, this time with 216,000 equivalent album units earned, exceeding his 2021 No. 1 with Lil Durk, The Voice of the Heroes, by 66,000. The new album’s numbers also surpass those from 2020, and considering he’s now got 25 songs on the Hot 100, it’s clear that demand has only increased for Lil Baby.
2. While Lil Baby has slow-released a number of new songs in the past year (“Right On,” “Frozen,” “Detox,” etc.), only “In a Minute” and the just-released “Heyy” appear on It’s Only Me. Do you think this has proven an effective promo strategy — or see it as an effective release strategy in general?
Rania Aniftos: Definitely, especially in the hip-hop scene, with new rappers budding up in the game all the time. I think the consistent rollout of tracks keeps Lil Baby relevant in the press and among hip-hop fans, while giving him time to work on his full album. Hence, when It’s Only Me dropped, fans knew what to expect and hadn’t forgotten about him, so they flocked to stream the album.
Carl Lamarre: If you couple Baby’s features with his slow-churning output, this is a smart recipe to success: If you feed your fans, they won’t yearn for more music. Like I previously said, despite his singles not having the same luster as his previous ones, Baby remained a formidable contender in-between releases because of his consistency. Thanks to that formula, his fans stood by him and showed up on his big day.
Jason Lipshutz: In this case, the release strategy was half-effective — those new songs didn’t become hit, or at least, hits of the stature of Baby’s most effective crossover singles — but they did keep him top of mind ahead of the It’s Only Me release, and that may have helped deliver the best Billboard 200 debut of his career. Perhaps It’s Only Me bows with an even bigger equivalent album unit total had one of those pre-release singles caught fire, but even without it, Lil Baby dominated this chart week.
Andrew Unterberger: Effective for maintaining, but not necessarily effective for growing. If Lil Baby wanted to make the jump to the Kendrick/Bad Bunny/Harry Styles level of stardom (and accompanying first-week numbers), he could probably stand to pull back on the regular releases and maybe turn his albums into more discrete projects and eras, building a more pronounced sense of anticipation for each new song when it arrives. But he’s doing quite fine as is, so I can’t really blame him for sticking with his current strategy.
Christine Werthman: Considering all those songs currently on the Hot 100, I’d say this strategy worked just fine. As a listener, it’s never that exciting to get an album that’s packed with singles you’ve already heard, so I appreciate that he kept dropping new music this year while still managing to have enough in the can for a full album. And it seems like lots of other listeners felt the same way — with the singles, whether or not they appeared on the album, building anticipation for this new project.
3. While all the songs Lil Baby has released this year have been decently successful, only “In a Minute” has really verged on being a major multi-platform success. Do you think see any of the new tracks on It’s Only Me going to a higher commercial level? (See list of his current Hot 100 entries at bottom of e-mail.)
Rania Aniftos: I’m thinking “Heyy” is going to have a commercial moment, especially because it jumped from No. 77 to No. 21 on the Hot 100 this week, which is a pretty big leap. The trap-infused hook makes it a really great party hit too. “California Breeze” is also a contender for a hit, because it’s fun and catchy, and it’s the only song currently in the top 5 on the Hot 100.
Carl Lamarre: I think “Heyy” has the most pull to become a quality single for Baby and Co. The bars are steely, the hook is sticky and the song itself boasts enough TikTok flavor to attract a whole new movement and trend on the popular app. I also am a fan of Fridayy’s hook capabilities, as the pairing of him and Baby on “Forever,” is a winner for me.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m all in on “Pop Out,” the team-up with Nardo Wick that perfectly balances Lil Baby’s floating, elastic wordplay and Wick’s deep, sinister murmurs. Love the singsong intro, the subtle strings in the production, the beat switch-up — “Pop Out” is one of the best hip-hop collaborations of the year, and deserves to be unavoidable.
Andrew Unterberger: “Pop Out” also seems like the one for me — TikTok could certainly have a field day with the mid-song switch-up — though Future collab “From Now On” is also up there for me for a lot of the same reasons.
Christine Werthman: The moody and melodic “California Breeze,” currently the No. 4 song on the Hot 100, is a standout track, and I see it sticking around, though I don’t know if it will surpass No. 4. The background sample comes from Danish artist Coco O., who is half of Quadron, the electronic duo with Robin Hannibal, who is one of the founders of the equally chill and vibe-y Rhye. Coco O.’s song “Gwen” is pitched down and stretched out, creating a soft atmosphere around Lil Baby’s lines about mistrusting some, protecting others and keeping his bookings up. Lil Baby dropped a video along with this one, so it seems like he has confidence in it as well.
That said, this doesn’t sound like a hits-generating album. It’s best absorbed in one complete go — if you’ve got an hour and five minutes to spare — so you can fully feel the weight of the dark clouds overhead.
4. Do you have any deeper favorites on It’s Only Me? Anything that you think pushes him into new or interesting territory?
Rania Aniftos: While I think sound-wise, “Russian Roulette” follows a similar feel to the rest of the tracks on the album, the lyrics are super vulnerable for Lil Baby. Talking about how he grew up, friends who have died along the way and how he feels about his music career gives him an added layer of depth, which I personally always appreciate.
Carl Lamarre: “Not Finished” is prime Baby, where he exudes feline agility without losing his lyrical verve. When Baby is dialed in, no rapper can keep up, as we have previously seen with Drake (“Wants & Needs”) and J. Cole (“Pride Is The Devil”). Also, Baby’s penchant for samples this outing was gold, as he floated on the album standout “California Breeze.”
Jason Lipshutz: A song like “Danger” only slightly tweaks the proven Lil Baby formula, but he spits with such wild-eyed conviction over that racing piano line that the song functions as a jolt of adrenaline on It’s Only Me, and an interesting change-up of Baby’s approach in the second half of the album. A project that leans toward this type of urgency would be a different lane for Baby, but a rewarding one.
Andrew Unterberger: Not really.
Christine Werthman: Instead of pushing Lil Baby into new territory, these songs find him staking out his zone, characterized by a haze of anxiety and the pursuit of revenue. What better rapper to welcome back to that bleak, hedonistic party than Future, who joins Lil Baby on “From Now On”? While Baby says his image revamp requires “no more pictures with my Styrofoam,” Future is contentedly “drinkin’ out Styrofoam,” unbothered or numb or both, his apathy making Lil Baby sound like a hopeful youth by comparison.
5. While there are some differences, It’s Only Me does seem largely patterned after My Turn in terms of its sound and structure. If Lil Baby was to go in a different direction on his next LP, how would you recommend he switch it up?
Rania Aniftos: I’d love to see him play with a little more R&B. There are incredible female R&B singers out there, and it would be so fun to see him have some collaborations with SZA or Jessie Reyez.
Carl Lamarre: I like the idea of Baby leaning more into samples. He does a great job in being introspective and I can honestly see him own that lane a la Drake with the right production. I also believe a tighter and more concise album — 14 tracks max — would bode well for Baby going forward.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d go slightly shorter and more uptempo — It’s Only Me is a highly satisfying listen that requires the listener to sink into its charms for 65 minutes, but I also believe Baby is capable of a 40-minute project that’s wall-to-wall bangers. He doesn’t need to drop something like that to stay on top, but damn if I wouldn’t enjoy it.
Andrew Unterberger: I’d love to see him explore a one-rapper, one-producer team-up project, a la 21 Savage and Metro Boomin’s pair of Savage Mode full-lengths. Baby’s one of the best rappers of his generation, but his production tastes can sometimes drift towards the indistinct — so for him to find a musical collaborator with a strong signature sound and see what kind of chemistry they could build over 12-15 tracks would be a really, really exciting prospect to me.
Christine Werthman: The sound and structure might be generally similar across the two albums, but the beats on It’s Only Me are less varied, and he seemed more charged up on My Turn. I like that he brought on a lot of guests that comfortably fit his vibe and support but don’t outshine him, but he gets more amped when paired with someone less similar, like Nicki Minaj on “Do We Have a Problem?” or J. Cole on “pride.is.the.devil.” It’s Only Me shows that Lil Baby knows his lane, but it’d be fun to see him step out of it.
For the second time in two years, one of the Billboard Hot 100‘s biggest records has fallen.
In August of 2021, the all-time mark for longest run on the Hot 100 was set by The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights,” passing the previous mark of 87 (held by Imagine Dragons’ “Radioactive”) and ultimately holding on for 90 weeks total. This week, on the Hot 100 dated Oct. 22, the benchmark is once again passed — this time by U.K. alt-pop outfit Glass Animals, with their first-ever Hot 100 entry, the global smash “Heat Waves.”
Why has this record been so vulnerable in recent years? And where do Glass Animals go from here? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. Even as a song that’s already made its fair share of Billboard Hot 100 history, how big a deal is it — on a scale from frigid to scorching — for a band like Glass Animals, with no history on the chart, to set the all-time longevity record with its first-ever Hot 100 hit?
Katie Atkinson: It’s blazing. Unlike The Weeknd, who was a known entity with an established track record of pop hits when he previously broke the record, Glass Animals lived firmly in the alternative radio space when “Heat Waves” was released. We’ve seen alt hits cross over to the mainstream many times before (Foster the People’s top five Hot 100 hit “Pumped Up Kicks” comes to mind), but never to this astronomical level. I’m going to need central air to combat this smoldering level of long-term heat.
Eric Renner Brown: Room temperature. For Glass Animals and the group’s fans – and onlookers who are just tired of the chart dominance of pop’s A-list – it’s an exciting feat. And the notion that, in 2022, a capital-B Band gradually built a sturdy career that could eventually match the accomplishment of a major pop artist like The Weeknd, at least in this specific arena, is impressive. Still, I hesitate to give Glass Animals *all* the credit here. The factors that govern how a hit becomes a hit – and how it stays one – have changed, and I think that rather than being an isolated case, we’ll probably see more runs like the one that “Heat Waves” has had going forward.
Josh Glicksman: Balmy! Of course — and more on this soon — Billboard has discussed the scarcity of new hits in 2022 throughout the year, and thanks to platforms like TikTok, there has been a significant jump in recent years of acts with no Hot 100 history climbing the ranks with their debut entry. Still, history is history, and Glass Animals deserves its flowers for curating the kind of hit to resonate this strongly with the masses for this long. Put some big points on the board for the everyman hero.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d call it “toasty,” because, while “Heat Waves” setting the longevity record on the Hot 100 is a big deal, the fact that a band like Glass Animals, with limited chart history, were the ones to do it doesn’t strike me as too extraordinary. Some of the biggest hits in the history of the Hot 100 came from out of nowhere — the longest-leading No. 1 hit of all time, for instance, is courtesy of Lil Nas X, with his debut Hot 100 hit. Lightning can strike anywhere, as we’ve learned time and again, so the fact that Glass Animals are unlikely Hot 100 rulers doesn’t make “Heat Waves” any less undeniable.
Andrew Unterberger: Warm. It means the group has a streaming perennial that basically should be enough of a moneymaker to make them (or at least lead singer/songwriter Dave Bayley) more or less financially independent for the rest of their careers, which is certainly no small thing, and it means they’ll be festival fixtures for basically as long as they desire to be. I do wonder about what the band would say about their most recent live audiences, though, and whether they actually notice a considerable difference in their 2022 crowds from their pre-“Heat Waves” turnouts, since TikTok breakouts like this tend to do a lot more for the songs than the artists who record them. At this scale, though, it might not matter — even if 1 out of every 1000 people who streamed “Heat Waves” became a Glass Animals fan, that’s still a whole lot of new Glass Animals fans.
2. “Blinding Lights” and “Heat Waves” have now both consecutively broken the Hot 100’s longevity record within the space of less than two years. What do the two songs have in common to you that allowed them to notch these kinds of record runs?
Katie Atkinson: It can’t be a coincidence that the bulk of both of their runs took place during a global pandemic. I imagine there were a lot of anomalous listening trends over the past two years that accounted for these incredibly long stays (on radio, especially) — like the fact that morning commutes were all but erased — so there’s a real chance that people just now driving to work again could be either discovering these songs or at least not entirely sick of them. Plus, both songs work well across multiple genres and formats, including adult pop radio and adult alternative, which both keep songs around longer than their younger counterparts. It was really a perfect storm of circumstances for both hits to thrive.
Eric Renner Brown: The success of “Blinding Lights” always made sense to me: massive pop star filters peak Michael Jackson through a vaguely ’10s filter, with an assist from Top 40 sage Max Martin and a hook that buries itself into every crevice of a listener’s brain. If “Blinding Lights” couldn’t set the Hot 100’s longevity record, what could? “Heat Waves,” apparently – but the fact that it had such widespread and enduring appeal sort of baffles me. For a certain subset of Millennials, I can see the song evoking nostalgia, for the mid-’10s boom of vibed-out, groove-savvy, Coachella-tent-ready rock. But it doesn’t harken back to massive ’80s pop – or tap into *that* vein of nostalgia – like “Blinding Lights” does. Ultimately, the biggest commonality is the commonality of most smash hits: a hook that burrows into your brain and refuses to leave.
Josh Glicksman: The first and most important thing that comes to my mind is the radio airplay: both “Blinding Lights” and “Heat Waves” have spent more than 50 weeks on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart and each have tallied more than 60 weeks on the all-format Radio Songs chart (with a whopping 83 for “Blinding Lights”). It goes without saying that both singles are massive earworms, but without them being firmly rooted in the radio rotation for more than a year each, I don’t think we’d see these kinds of extended runs.
Jason Lipshutz: Nothing, really? Both tracks are sure-thing, accessible smashes that didn’t seem to wear on listeners after months and months of play, but they come from two wildly different artists with dissimilar aesthetics and sounds. Perhaps the biggest similarity is in their multi-platform dominance: they both thrived by triangulating streaming success, radio play and the more ephemeral TikTok trend quadrant (in the case of “Heat Waves,” that’s how the song started taking off) for months on end, and that’s how both were able to set the Hot 100 longevity record.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a cross-genre affability and an ability to vibe on a lot of different wavelengths, for sure. But ultimately, the biggest similarities here are found much more in the contexts surrounding the songs and their releases than in the songs themselves.
3. The Weeknd and Glass Animals are far from the only artists nearing or breaking longevity-based records on the Hot 100 this decade — for instance, Harry Styles’ “As It Was” also extends its record for most weeks in the Hot 100’s top three this week. What do you think is the primary reason for these songs notching such unprecedented chart runs, and do you see it as either a good or bad thing for the industry?
Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely related to our colleague Elias Leight’s reporting on there being too many songs but enough hits. It’s nice for Harry Styles to cement his pop-superstar status with the “As It Was” run, but the reason it’s thriving like this likely has more to do with the logjam of songs at the top that aren’t making way for other hits than it does with the Harry’s House lead single’s legacy. I think it’s ultimately a bad thing for the industry when the wealth isn’t shared a little more.
Eric Renner Brown: I’m going to go with Occam’s razor here: The songs are good! As chart criteria has evolved alongside streaming, we’ve seen both singles and albums frequently make big splashes, then fizzle after a couple weeks when popular interest moves on. The success of “Blinding Lights,” “Heat Waves,” and “As It Was” all indicate to me that the songs truly resonated with fans, in ways that went beyond mere curiosity in fresh singles. That’s particularly noteworthy with The Weeknd and Harry Styles, where that type of curiosity in what pop’s biggest names are up to can yield huge numbers upon release that quickly dissipate.
Josh Glicksman: A lot of it seemingly comes down to the sheer volume of music readily accessible to the public on a weekly basis. It’s so easy for singles, albums and even artists to simply get lost in the shuffle. As Billboard recently reported, pop music is struggling to create new stars at the moment, and it feels even less so like it’s creating sustainable ones. All of that points towards banking on a few established juggernauts — plus the seldom breakthrough — to provide reliable hits that can be slotted into the rotation for lengthy stays. I’ll never turn the dial when those songs come on, but it’s probably not the best thing for the industry long-term.
Jason Lipshutz: Hit singles are remaining hits for longer periods of time these days, largely based on listener behavior: fans keep streaming songs like “Blinding Lights,” “Heat Waves” and “As It Was” for months after their release, and radio programmers have picked up on that prolonged interest and kept these tracks in heavy rotation. In other words, listeners want to keep hearing these songs, and they’re lasting longer on the chart based on these preferences. And while that may result in more chart stagnation, ultimately, I believe the Hot 100 is more reflective of listener habits than ever before, which is definitely a good thing.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s definitely a combination of radio and streaming both keeping hit songs alive for a lot longer than ever before, and reduced label influence resulting in each single’s cycle lasting as long as fans and listeners say it does — not what’s convenient for an artist’s full-album rollout. A long-lasting hit isn’t a bad thing in itself, but when it becomes more the rule than the exception for the Hot 100’s highest tiers, it does result in a certain level of unfortunate pop stagnation.
4. Assuming the broken record is the last major chart accomplishment notched by “Heat Waves” — maybe not a safe assumption — and the song’s run is finally nearing its end, would you have any advice for Glass Animals as to how to best follow up (or not) the success of a song this massive and unkillable?
Katie Atkinson: There’s really three directions this could go. 1) They could be so spooked by the “Heat Waves” success that they’re never heard from again; 2) They could go back to their alternative radio safe space by doing what they were doing best before, but now with a little more cachet; or 3) They could start working with pop songwriters and producers to try stay in the big leagues. I personally would vote Option No. 2 for them, because they can parlay this outlier hit into a really fulfilling career firmly in their wheelhouse and have a more robust fanbase along for the ride, without being accused of the dreaded “selling out.” Win-win.
Eric Renner Brown: Stay true to the fans. Glass Animals was huge, in a way, before “Heat Waves,” and those are the listeners who will continue to drive their career going forward. Never say never, I guess, but it’s unlikely they’ll replicate the crossover success of this song. Better to stick with the robust base of fans they built beforehand than to chase continued pop relevancy that may prove elusive.
Josh Glicksman: Zag! There’s no real statistical basis that I’m pulling from here, but it always feels to me that artists looking to replicate success with songs that are made “in the same vein as such-and-such previous huge hit” fall flat. That doesn’t mean Glass Animals needs to reinvent the wheel or pivot genres entirely, but all I’m asking for is that it strays away from looking to recapture lightning in a bottle with a “Heat Waves Pt. II.”
Andrew Unterberger: I’d put all the effort into the live show, which is likely the easiest/most reliable way to ensure that fans who check out your band after hearing a song they like for the first time stick around for whatever you do next. (And seems like they’re already fairly far ahead of me there.)
5. Considering that “Heat Waves” was already on the Hot 100 the week that “Blinding Lights” first broke the longevity record, take a look at the chart this week — if you had to pick one song currently on there that might ultimately supplant “Heat Waves,” which would it be?
Katie Atkinson: This feels like a copout answer, but I’m going to say “As It Was.” Even though this top three chokehold has to come to an end soon, it feels like, just like “Heat Waves,” this one isn’t leaving radio or streaming anytime soon and should have some serious legs. It only needs 62 more weeks on the chart…
Eric Renner Brown: Lizzo’s “About Damn Time.” It’s already a quarter of the way there, is still holding strong at No. 11, and I feel like it has a long tail as an affirmational anthem and mainstream party staple. Lizzo’s omnipresence in the cultural discourse will also help to bolster the song’s staying power.
Josh Glicksman: It’s not a bold pick by any stretch, but I’ll take “As It Was.” Already nearly 30 weeks in, it feels like it’s just getting started.
Jason Lipshutz: My head says Morgan Wallen’s “Wasted On You,” on the chart for 48 weeks now and still moving upward within the top 20, depending on the week; my heart says Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit,” which, sure, has a long way to go after “only” being on the chart 15 weeks, but the current biggest song in the country isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Andrew Unterberger: Hmm, cross-genre appeal, vibes fit in multiple contexts, took a minute to climb the chart (even starting at No. 100) and is now unavoidable on streaming and (soon enough if not already) on radio? Seems to me like our current No. 1 checks most of those boxes, no?