five burning questions
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While we’ve already seen a few proven hitmakers — Miley Cyrus, Shakira, Morgan Wallen — zooming onto the Billboard Hot 100 with splashy hits so far this year, this week we get something a little different: a top 15 debut from two rising pop artists who’ve never reached higher than No. 82 on the chart before.
“Boy’s a Liar” was already a modest streaming success for acclaimed pop&B singer-songwriter PinkPantheress, racking up millions of plays a week. But it didn’t really threaten the Hot 100 until its “Pt. 2” remix premiered on Feb. 3, alongside viral rapper Ice Spice. The new version took off almost immediately, and continued climbing for all last week — resulting in a No. 14 Hot 100 debut on the chart dated Feb. 18.
Why did their combination prove so potent? And which artist does the breakthrough mean more for? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. PinkPantheress’ and Ice Spice’s names won’t be unfamiliar to anyone who’s paid close attention to pop music over the past couple years — particularly online — but their individual solo Hot 100 histories to this point are minimal. What is about their team-up that allowed “Boy’s a Liar” to have such an explosive Hot 100 debut?
Rania Aniftos: PinkPantheress and Ice Spice teamed up at the perfect point in their careers, where they both had just enough buzz for the collaboration to take off. Also, “Boy’s a Liar” is two cute, fun women singing about how men are trash. It was made for the Hot 100.
Jason Lipshutz: Sometimes, online popularity is multiplied thanks to a collaboration between two well-known (if not high-charting) artists, and then applied to the right song to have both artists explode up the Hot 100. The effect that we’re seeing from “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” reminds me a little of Migos and Lil Uzi Vert’s No. 1 smash from 2017, “Bad and Boujee” — not that those songs sound anything alike, but they both soared up the Hot 100 at a time when their respective creators had been cult favorites for a while without a full-on mainstream embrace. We’ll see how high “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” can climb, but PinkPantheress and Ice Spice are likely about to experience highly expanded profiles because of it.
Heran Mamo: TikTok has been an impressive launchpad for both artists, so for PinkPantheress and Ice Spice to join forces (and online fanbases), their collaboration was sure to make a lot of noise on the Billboard charts. Sonically, Pink’s U.K. drum and bass-meets-bubblegum pop and Ice’s Brooklyn drill sounds complement one another with their uniquely frenetic rhythms, while Pink’s sweet-sounding, shrill voice and Ice’s bold, raspier voice delivery provide a noteworthy contrast. Not to mention, the “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” music video — which currently sits at No. 1 on YouTube’s U.S. Trending music chart — adds to their indomitable power as Gen-Z’s it-girlies.
Andrew Unterberger: Sometimes it just takes a small boost for artists who have long been knocking on the door of the mainstream to break all the way through. The pairing of PinkPantheress and Ice Spice was unexpected but intriguing — and, once you got the chance to hear and see it, pretty logical. If you were interested in either artist, chances are you were checking this out, and you were probably satisfied enough to share it on put it on your heavy-rotation playlists. To see it just snowball from there — to the point where the song now likely has plenty of listeners who were previously unfamiliar with either artist — is mostly just a testament to the song being real good.
Christine Werthman: PinkPantheress and Ice Spice both get a lot of streaming and TikTok love on their own, though that doesn’t necessarily translate to Hot 100 success. But their team-up on “Boy’s a liar Pt. 2″ — not just for a song but also a video — made for a perfect joining of forces that united their fanbases, and their numbers, and catapulted this vulnerable 2:11-long callout to that impressive No. 14 debut. PinkPantheress recently admitted to being picky about her collaborators, and it seems like she held out for the perfect one.
2. The original “Liar” had been lingering around the Spotify daily charts as one of PinkPantheress’ bigger streaming hits, but could never quite seem to get the juice to cross over on its own. Do you think the Pt. 2 with Ice Spice is a superior and/or more commercial version of the song, or do you think it’s mostly excitement over the combination of artists that’s propelling it so far?
Rania Aniftos: The online hype surrounding Ice Spice lately definitely didn’t hurt. Her soothing rap verse adds a digestible, radio-ready quality to the song without sacrificing its unique sound. Fans in general also seem to be loving female collaborations, as we’ve seen through various team-ups Doja Cat and Megan Thee Stallion have done over the past few years. The unexpected-but-so-natural decision for PinkPantheress and Ice Spice to work together was such a good move, and allowed the song to propel into the mainstream.
Jason Lipshutz: Why not both? The remix has certainly benefited from the presence of Ice Spice, who’s been a prominent figure in popular hip-hop throughout this year, thanks in part to her Like.. ? EP. But her presence on “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” isn’t a gimmick: even though the song lengths of the original and remix are exactly the same, Ice Spice balances out PinkPantheress’ melodic sighs and jingly chorus with weighty bars, making the song less of a delightful trifle and more of a fleshed-out pop hit.
Heran Mamo: I’d say both. Adding another fast-growing internet sensation like Ice Spice into the mix is the perfect ingredient to make “Boy’s a Liar” a commercial hit. Even leaked TikTok videos of them filming the “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” music video in New York made waves before the song was ever released because fans were in disbelief that their favorites were coming together. Additionally, the beginning of Ice’s verse – “He say that I’m good enough, grabbin’ my duh-duh-duh/ Thinkin’ ‘bout sh— that I shouldn’t have (Huh)” – has proven to be one of the most lyrically memorable components of the track, so she adds more value to “Boy’s a Liar” beyond her presence.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t say the new version is better, necessarily, but it does make “Liar” feel more like a commercial pop song. The “Pt. 2” version of “Boy’s a Liar” isn’t actually any longer than the original — both run 2:11, just with Ice Spice’s new verse subbed in for PinkPantheress’ second verse on “Pt. 2” — it just feels fuller, thanks the switch-up to Spice’s completely different (but still well-matching) flow. For two artists whose singles have been consistently satisfying, but maybe a little too clipped and weightless for certain pop audiences to really give them full consideration, the combination ends up being more than the sum of its parts.
Christine Werthman: The Bronx rapper brings a grounding element to the original track, which flits about as the British dance-pop artist vocalizes relationship insecurities and frustrations. “Pt. 2” also catches Ice Spice in a less guarded place than usual, and though there’s something novel about that for fans, I don’t think it upped the song’s commercial appeal. Instead, I think it just granted each artist exclusive access to the other’s fanbase, and that combination propelled the plays.
The video dropped 11 days ago, and it already has 12 million views — so watching these two link, looking ultra cool against a New York City backdrop, is enough to get people excited. That said, if “Pt. 2” (or even the original “Boy’s a Liar”) weren’t such a strong track on its own, the collab might not have had such an impact. But the audio plus the visual made it take off.
3. Which of the two artists do you think this debut ultimately means more for?
Rania Aniftos: I really want to say both, but I’m not going to cheat on this answer. I’m going to say PinkPantheress, because I’ve always known that she’s great, and it’s about time everyone else does too.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably Ice Spice — who appears to be on the verge of full-blown stardom, after a months-long run of positively received music, increasing meme-ability and growing respect for her microphone skills from the old school and new school hip-hop communities. Make no mistake, “Boy’s a Liar” represents a significant win for PinkPantheress, a critically adored pop savant who is about to play bigger stages. Yet the song feels like another checked box in Ice Spice’s rapid breakthrough as a major artist.
Heran Mamo: PinkPantheress, considering she’s the lead artist on the track and this marks her career-first entry on the Hot 100. She released her debut mixtape, To Hell With It, in October 2021, and besides her latest slew of singles (which includes “Boy’s a Liar”), it’s been relatively quiet on her end. Her evolution from a faceless singer who teases her music on TikTok via viral snippets to charting star with increasing momentum and an actual physical presence has been remarkable to witness in the short years she’s been on the scene.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s tough, because it means a whole lot for both in different ways. But I’d say Ice Spice gets the slightly bigger boost here as the difference-maker; she also debuts her own slowly growing solo hit “In Ha Mood” at No. 85 this week, and seems well on her way to being one of the most ubiquitous pop figures of 2023. This is a big breakthrough for PinkPantheress and should help her visibility significantly, but if she went back to being a mostly cult-level pop hitmaker after this it wouldn’t be shocking.
Christine Werthman: Ice Spice, since it looks like her co-sign/feature can boost songs to new heights.
4. Once the initial excitement passes, do you see “Liar” continuing to grow into one of the biggest hits of early 2023? Or do you think this strong start is about as good as it will get for the song?
Rania Aniftos: It’s hard to say because I still haven’t been able to pinpoint what the major 2023 trend in music is yet. It seems like this is going to be the viral song that stays through the summer due to its bubbly nature, but you really never know with the Internet. Every time we think we figured out what’s viral, another random smash comes out of nowhere.
Jason Lipshutz: Although it will be tough for “Liar” to challenge smashes from A-list artists like Miley Cyrus, SZA, Morgan Wallen and Taylor Swift at the top of the Hot 100 in the coming weeks, I do expect the song to keep rising and make a top 10 bow sooner than later. “Liar” is too damn catchy and well-made to be relegated to “viral hit” status, and even though PinkPantheress and Ice Spice have zero track record at pop radio, I could see top 40 programmers taking a chance on a single that’s this accessible, and help its upward momentum continue.
Heran Mamo: I have hope that “Boy’s a Liar” has the momentum to become one of the year’s earliest hits. Pink’s catchy “Good eno-o-ough, good eno-o-ough” post-chorus, cheeky Ice Spice-isms like “grabbin’ my duh-duh-duh” and the candy-coated production ensure this track will be a mainstay. I mean, how could they lose if they’re already chose… like?
Andrew Unterberger: It’s really never a good idea to underestimate the commercial ceiling for a song that debuts strong out the gate and just keeps growing from there. The song has continued to climb on streaming services’ daily charts — and not just one of them; it’s in the daily top 10 for each of Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube — and radio shouldn’t be far behind. It’ll have its work cut out for it passing some of those bigger names currently occupying the chart’s top spots, so No. 1 might end up being out of reach for it. But the top five feels like a distinct possibility, and sooner than later.
Christine Werthman: All the attention is boosting “Liar” beyond the Ice Spice and PinkPantheress fan spheres, so I think it will climb a little higher from here. Maybe even top 10 material.
5. When a song like this comes out of nowhere (relatively speaking) and zooms into a debut like this, it’s guaranteed the industry will sit up and pay attention to it. So what important industry lessons, if any, do you think can be taken from the early success of “Boy’s a Liar”?
Rania Aniftos: Songs that sound like Paris Hilton listened to them in 2005 are still very much in – and so are female collaborations! We’ve been on this early 2000’s nostalgia wave in music over the past few months, and I think it’s going to continue well into 2003. I expect to see more of these pop, digital-sounding hooks in the future.
Jason Lipshutz: A decade ago, there were certain indie-pop artists who were never going to remove the “indie-“ prefix from their categorization and score a mainstream hit; now, in the age of TikTok, left-of-center artists have a very real shot at scoring top 40 hits under the right circumstances. So as unlikely as a hit PinkPantheress single may have seemed a few weeks ago, the industry cannot afford to shrug off the mainstream potential of singer-songwriters who continue to produce top-notch pop. You never know which “Boy’s a Liar” is just around the corner.
Heran Mamo: Make remixes that make sense. Sometimes, songs that are already performing well on their own will be supplemented with remixes that don’t necessarily add to the track beside A-list names (e.g., the Justin Bieber and J Balvin remix of 24k Goldn and iann dior’s “Mood”) and end up doing nothing. PinkPantheress and Ice Spice are two 20-something, pop and rap princesses of the digital age with a similarly eclectic taste in beats. Even Pink said it herself in a cover interview with NME that “when it comes to collaborations, I’m quite picky: I always want someone who can match me well on a track.” And Ice does exactly that on “Boy’s a Liar.”
Andrew Unterberger: I think there’s something to be said about looking out for buzzy singles that internalize trends that have been going on for some time in the underground, while filtering them through a more accessible pop framework. You can hear some of the frenetic airiness of hyperpop and even a little bit of the bounce of Jersey club in “Boy’s a Liar,” but at the end of the day you wouldn’t say it really belongs to either of those genres — you’d just call it a pop song. Songs that can pull that off, without seeming trend-hoppy or late… the sky’s the limit for ’em, really.
Christine Werthman: PinkPantheress has more monthly listeners on Spotify than Ice Spice (20 million vs. 14 million, respectively), but they’re not lightyears apart in terms of popularity. Perhaps the takeaway is that you don’t need a big Drake-sized feature on your track to make it soar — you just need a smart pairing of artists who naturally vibe, who differ stylistically but aren’t total opposites and, sure, who have each found love in the streaming world.
They were the final rapper to appear in the Grammys’ 50th anniversary tribute to hip-hop mega-medley, and now they’re back in the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100: Lil Uzi Vert, whose “Just Wanna Rock” climbs from 12 to 10 on the chart dated Feb. 11.
Uzi started the 2020s as one of the biggest artists in popular music, with their Eternal Atake album blanketing the Hot 100 and posting one of the year’s best first-week numbers. But they haven’t released a new album since then, and their single and EP releases over the last three years failed to generate the same level of excitement — until the Jersey Club-influenced “Rock” started taking off in late 2022.
Is Uzi officially back? And what might be able to put “Rock” over the top on the Hot 100? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. “Just Wanna Rock” peeks into the top 10 this week, in its 16th week on the listing. What do you think the biggest reason is behind its late growth into a top 10 hit?
Carl Lamarre: I think it took people time to get it. The Jersey Club sound has a place in hip-hop but picked up incredible steam as of late, courtesy of “Rock” and the DJ Smallz 732 remix of Coi Leray’s “Players.” Later, it became a huge hit — as most of Uzi’s records do — on social media. And, of course, Uzi’s penchant for showy dance moves also gave the track an extra boost, as previously proven with their “Futsal Shuffle.”
Cydney Lee: Good question. I’m going to throw a dart and say the timing of its release. Uzi dropped this in October and the video came a month later then the holidays hit which slowed things down. Now it’s a new year, people’s energy is different and the countdown to spring and summer has started. Maybe that’s it. But “Just Wanna Rock” and Jersey Club in general, has been going crazy on TikTok, being the soundtrack to viral dance trends and I think this popularity and growth is mostly coming from the youth. (Also, the song will climb even higher when my (the) Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl!!!)
Elias Leight: The track’s growing presence at radio helped push it into the upper reaches of the Hot 100. “Just Wanna Rock” has been earning more than 18 million on-demand streams a week (including UGC) since back in November, according to Luminate. (That number was actually above 21 million for much of December.) Radio often lags behind streaming, and sure enough, the audience that encountered “Just WannaRock” on the airwaves has grown more slowly. But it has risen considerably since Christmas, closing in on 30 million and helping to propel Lil Uzi Vert back into the top 10.
Jason Lipshutz: “Just Wanna Rock” is a proudly strange single that rejects normal song structure, swerves away from Lil Uzi Vert’s established sound and deploys hooks that take time to worm their way into your heart; I was reluctant to embrace “Rock” when it was first released, and now, I play it multiple times a day. I’d bet that plenty of Uzi fans and casual hip-hop listeners have experienced a similar evolution — perhaps spurred on a little by hearing the song in a sports arena, where it’s been absolutely inescapable this winter. “Just Wanna Rock” is not a one-listen type of smash, so it makes sense that it needed a few months (a several dozen NBA arena spins) to surge into the top 10.
Andrew Unterberger: Not sure if it’s the biggest reason, but I do think its increased use within the sports world — as both a go-to jock jam in arenas and stadiums and a locker-room favorite of teams (including Uzi’s Super Bowl-bound hometown Philadelphia Eagles) has helped its momentum, and given it much-needed pop culture context for those who might’ve otherwise found it confusing. Regardless, I look forward to hearing it during pre-game intros and timeouts for the next few decades.
2. “Rock” already marks the seventh top 10 hit of Lil Uzi Vert’s career — though it’s their first in three years now. Are you surprised that “Rock” would be the song to return Uzi to the chart’s top tier?
Carl Lamarre: Again, with Uzi, I think you never know what to expect. The unpredictability of their music makes them an enviable threat in rap culture. Sonically, Uzi rarely misses, but you never know if the records will be appreciated commercially the same way it’s received culturally. Thankfully for them, they’ve been able to straddle the lines seamlessly.
Cydney Lee: Not surprised! Given the type of artist Uzi is and the fact that Philly, Jersey and Baltimore club are so similar, them making a Jersey Club song seemed bound to happen. Uzi is no stranger to tying dance moves with their songs also (their little shoulder move and 2020’s “Futsal Shuffle”?) so adding a hip dance to “Just Wanna Rock” was the perfect recipe for TikTok creators to recreate and even add their own moves.
Elias Leight: “Just Wanna Rock” is a ferocious intro, a frenzied ramp-up, the musical equivalent of a violently shaken champagne bottle. But it never fully explodes — it’s a lot of build with little release. Lil Uzi Vert’s music is often deliciously off-kilter, and “Just Wanna Rock” fits the bill.
Jason Lipshutz: I am, simply because Uzi is prolific enough that I would have assumed a new single attached to a major album, or a high-profile guest spot, would have gotten them there first. And maybe “Rock” will lead into a new Uzi full-length to follow 2020’s Eternal Atake, or at least point to where their sound is headed next, but regardless, its success is divorced from any larger project or grand plan. “Rock” is a singular smash, accentuating itself from the rest of Uzi’s discography and becoming one of the more uncompromising top 10 hits of the decade.
Andrew Unterberger: A little, just because Uzi had been trending so far in the wrong direction over the few years leading up to it, and because the song seemed pretty alien and unfamiliar to the current mainstream, even by the artist’s already-extraterrestrial standards. But maybe I just didn’t realize how much Jersey Club had begun to spread nationally, or how much fans were just waiting for the right Uzi song to jump back on board with.
3. When Uzi released Eternal Atake in early 2020, it debuted to blockbuster numbers and mostly rave reviews. After a tumultuous past three years — both commercially and legally — is the strong response to “Rock” an indication to you that Uzi’s next full-length will be similarly greeted as Atake? Or are they unilikely to match that level of pre-pandemic stardom again?
Carl Lamarre: Their new album, which I believe is the Pink Tape, will be greeted with incredible fanfare. Since their 2017 mainstream breakout Luv Is Rage 2, Uzi’s fanbase has grown exponentially, and the demand for their music has since followed suit. If you check out the festival lineups, they’ve ascended to headline status. There’s been pandemonium for them, whether a single or a mixtape. For the younger generation, only Uzi and Playboi Carti can accrue that type of interest and eagerness in new music –because they’ve also mastered the beauty behind the rollout, making every release an event.
Cydney Lee: This might be a toss-up, and I say this because they released an EP Red & White last year, and I don’t remember hearing too much buzz around it. It peaked at No. 23 on the Billboard 200, so obviously people were listening, but “Just Wanna Rock” seems so niche that I’m not sure which way their next full-length will lean.
Elias Leight: Lil Uzi Vert fans are a dedicated bunch. While it may be hard for the rapper to match Eternal Atake‘s 400 million first-week streams, they’ll almost certainly have a big bow with their follow-up and debut at No. 1 (barring a surprise album from someone like Drake).
Jason Lipshutz: I think Uzi’s next project will be even bigger than their last. Although some of its commercial effect got overshadowed by the pandemic shutdown of March 2020, Eternal Atake (including its full-length deluxe edition that followed a week after its release) was a blockbuster, particularly when it came to Uzi’s younger audience (400 million streams in its first week!) — and keep in mind, the album thrived even without a mainstream-courting single, mostly functioning as a showcase for Uzi’s heliocentric flow. If its follow-up includes hits with the chart impact of “Just Wanna Rock,” watch out: we are in for one of the biggest album releases of the year.
Andrew Unterberger: They’re probably closer than I would’ve guessed a few months ago, certainly. I do think it’s worth remembering that it wasn’t just underwhelming song releases that have hurt Uzi’s momentum — they were accused of felony assault in 2021, with some pretty gnarly specifics, to which they ultimately pleaded no contest. But have those headlines really stuck to them, to the point of altering their career trajectory? Maybe not.
4. The clear Jersey Club influence evident in “Just Wanna Rock” has been much discussed as a potential bellwether crossover moment for the dance subgenre. Do you see “Rock” as the start of a larger Jersey Club presence in the mainstream, or do you see it mostly being kept to the underground outside of this hit?
Carl Lamarre: The dance subgenre can swell into something bigger if another notable artist takes a crack at it. Dance enjoyed a splashy moment with Drake and Beyonce dipping their feet in the genre last year, and artists are becoming a bit captivated with what they can deliver on their own accord. With “Rock” and the “Players” remix generating interest on the mainstream level, all it takes is a resounding third hit to shift the paradigm.
Cydney Lee: I think the song is exposing a wider audience to the Jersey Club sound, but I do think its popularity will stay regional. Like NYC drill. In other words, we’ll probably only hear songs like this by artists from the mid-Atlantic region, with maybe a few exceptions (NLE Choppa and 2Rare’s “Do It Again”).
Elias Leight: Rap that nods to Jersey Club has already been seeping into the mainstream. Not surprisingly, the breakneck tempos make it popular for TikTok dance videos, and one of the scene’s rising stars, Newark rapper Bandmanrill, landed a deal with Warner Records last year. (Bandmanrill works frequently with Mcvertt, who co-produced “Just Wanna Rock.”) Philadelphia also has its own variant of this sound, which has helped rapper 2Rare go viral and score collaborations with Lil Durk and NLE Choppa. 2Rare is signed to a joint venture with Warner as well, and he appeared in Drake’s “Sticky” video.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d love a full-on Jersey Club movement in the upper reaches of the Hot 100, but I’m predicting that “Just Wanna Rock” is instead a lone crossover moment. That propulsive sound is simply difficult to translate into a mass-appeal single, and even “Just Wanna Rock” took months until it beguiled enough listeners and grew into a top 10 hit. Happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt we look back on this moment as the start of a major trend.
Andrew Unterberger: Jumping on a Jersey Club trend is perhaps easier said than done, since it requires an adjustment to energy and flow that a lot of rappers might not be inclined (or equipped) to make — though it’s a great fit for an already frenetic, right-brained MC like Uzi. More likely perhaps, we’ll see the trend explode through DJs remixing established hits; lord knows folks can’t seem to get enough of sped-up versions these days, so at least going the Jersey Club route with remixes would allow producers to be a little more creative and specific with their edits while cranking up the BPMs.
5. A climb into the top 10 for “Rock” is impressive, but it’ll be hard for the song to threaten the top five without major radio support — which it seems unlikely to get, as a two-minute and largely structureless song without an obvious format radio base. If you were to commission a new remix to help get it over the top, which special guest would be your first call to be the remix’s featured star?
Carl Lamarre: Playboi Carti. If anyone can fully immerse themselves into the jungle gym of Lil Uzi Vert, it’s their one-time partner in crime. Let’s make it happen and finally get the album we’ve been dying to hear.
Cydney Lee: Coi Leray. She’s from Jersey and has already dabbled in Jersey Club. A Jersey or Philly artist is the only right answer here and I think she has the right energy for a track like this.
Elias Leight: Several radio formats are actually embracing “Just Wanna Rock.” The single has become Lil Uzi Vert’s third most-played track of all time on the airwaves — behind “XO Tour Llif3” and “You Was Right” — according to Mediabase, and it’s currently inside the top 5 on both Mediabase’s Rhythmic chart and its Urban chart. Where “Just Wanna Rock” lags behind other Hot 100 hits right now is pop airplay, a format that isn’t always receptive to rap singles. A remix may not help sway pop radio, but Cardi B had fun last year jumping on tracks like Kay Flock’s “Shake It,” and she’s on the same label as Lil Uzi Vert…
Jason Lipshutz: How about Quavo and Offset? Following the death of Takeoff last year and reports of feuding between the remaining Migos members, a reunion on a “Just Wanna Rock” remix would be major news and a must-listen. Plus, Migos gave Uzi their star-making turn on their No. 1 hit “Bad and Boujee” — time for Uzi to return the favor.
Andrew Unterberger: Too much to hope Dee Snider has a great-nephew or someone who’d be willing to introduce him to Uzi? Even if not, maybe let’s just imagine a cut-up duet with Snider barking those “ROCK!” response vocals. There’s some Billy Ray + Lil Nas cross-generational potential here, certainly.
As a prodigious young singer-songwriter and popular social media personality, Jacob Lawson has grown a devoted following over his past few years as a recording artist. But this week is something of a coronation for the artist now known as JVKE as a crossover star, as he scores his first top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100.
“Golden Hour,” the breakout single from his 2022 breakup song cycle This Is What ____ Feels Like (Vol. 1-4), climbs 11-10 on the Hot 100 dated Feb. 4, thanks to growing pop radio support and steady streaming success. The lush pop ballad is JVKE’s first Hot 100 entry of any kind, though he’d already proven a reliable streaming performer with prior singles “Upside Down,” “Dandelion” and the This Is What title track.
How big will “Golden Hour” get from here? And which bubbling-under pop sensation might be the next to score a crossover chart hit? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Golden Hour” makes the top 10 in its 12th week on the listing. What do you think has been the biggest factor in its chart rise?
Stephen Daw: While TikTok was the obvious defining factor in the song’s initial success, pop radio appears to be the big driver for “Golden Hour” right now. Along with his first Hot 100 top 10, JVKE also scored his first top 10 on our Pop Airplay chart thanks to increased radio play of the single — sure, the sound is still everywhere on TikTok, but its crossover onto mainstream radio is what’s sending it way up the charts.
Lyndsey Havens: My best guess is we’re seeing a spike thanks to his year-end performance at Jingle Ball. It was a well-timed live set that primed JVKE for this post-holiday climb. And while “Golden Hour” may have taken off on TikTok first, it’s been growing at radio as well, also entering the top 10 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. And it’s important to remember this is all happening without any major label push.
Jason Lipshutz: “Golden Hour” has a winning formula: semi-rapped verses full of romantic observations and modern music references, boiling into an enormous, crooned-from-the-gut chorus. JVKE, to his credit, nails the push-pull at the heart of the song — nimble enough to sound nonchalant during the lead-up, then giving his absolute all on the hook — while the racing piano line beneath him is a memorable piece of production that simultaneously doesn’t distract from the vocal take.
Glenn Rowley: I would chalk it up in large part to timing. Outside of Miley’s “Flowers” and Shakira’s “Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53,” the chart hasn’t exactly been inundated with new releases. It’s still mostly filled with pre-holiday holdovers, which has left some room for JVKE to sneak into the top 10 after a three-month climb.
Andrew Unterberger: A combination of a strong social following and presence (over 10 million followers on TikTok) and legitimate musical talent (displayed with this song’s frantic piano hook and soaring vocals) is usually a pretty good starting point for pop success. The interest had been there for a couple years already with JVKE; once he had a song that broke through a little bit it was pretty clear it was going to go pretty far from there.
2. JVKE has seen some streaming success before — three of his earlier songs have over 100 million plays on Spotify — but this is his first Hot 100 hit. Does it make sense to you that “Golden Hour” would be the song to put him over the top?
Stephen Daw: For sure. While I think there are more obvious “pop hit”-sounding singles in JVKE’s catalog, but “Golden Hour” stands out. The song has a sense of orchestral drama to it that makes it sound at least moderately different from other viral songs right now — which then makes it a lot easier for fans to go searching for “that one song I heard on TikTok.”
Lyndsey Havens: Totally. This song is not only incredibly well-crafted and fresh sounding, but the way he introduced it — with a simple TikTok clip in which his childhood piano teacher tears up at him playing the song for her — pushed it over the edge. I can’t quite remember the last time an artist who grew up inspired by both Christian music and hip-hop, with a knack for intricate piano melodies and soaring vocals, put it all together. The result is, well… a top 10 hit.
Jason Lipshutz: It does, simply because “Golden Hour” has demonstrated a pop radio appeal that JVKE’s other hits have not. The key to “Golden Hour” crossing into the top 10 of the Hot 100 chart may be its move up to No. 25 on the Radio Songs chart this week, with that soaring hook sounding right at home on top 40 radio. “Golden Hour” had already reached the top 10 of the Streaming Songs chart (and sits at No. 13 this week), but winning over another format has helped create a multi-platform smash.
Glenn Rowley: Honestly, it makes sense from a strategy perspective — what, with countless remixes, a holiday version and assists from the likes of Ruel and Henry. But musically, the song feels like such an anomaly to me; certainly not what I’d expect to hear at the top of the chart at the moment.
Andrew Unterberger: I didn’t think so at first, though I’m sorta coming around to it. Parts of it feel more like an album interlude (or really an intro) than a big single, but such distinctions are increasingly irrelevant in 2023: Look at Steve Lacy’s “Static,” the beatless opening track to his Gemini Rights that never really properly kicks in, but was still pretty easily the album’s second biggest hit after the chart-conquering “Bad Habit.” This song doesn’t feel like his most radio-ready, but it does feel like his most striking, and in modern pop the latter is probably more important.
3. Do you see the song continuing to climb on the Hot 100 from here? How high do you think it might go?
Stephen Daw: Without a remix or an updated version of some kind, I don’t see the song going that much further up the chart — especially when you have tracks with a proven track record of chart longevity like “As It Was,” “Rich Flex” and “Die For You” in the way. Maybe “Golden Hour” will be able overtake one or two of those tracks, but I doubt it will crack the seemingly impenetrable Top 5 we currently have.
Lyndsey Havens: When you consider some expected post-Grammy bumps, the No. 10 spot may be where “Golden Hour” peaks for now. Unless he and his team have an official music video up their sleeves — or something else — to regenerate buzz, the timing may be a bit off for it to climb any higher. But hey, the upper echelon is the upper echelon. And it could leave room for his follow-up hit to get even closer to the summit.
Jason Lipshutz: I could see “Golden Hour” challenging for a top 5 spot on the Hot 100, considering how some songs above it on the chart, like Harry Styles’ “As It Was” and David Guetta & Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue),” have presided in the top 10 for months and could start slipping in the coming weeks. However, I don’t envision “Golden Hour” challenging the “Flowers”/“Kill Bill”/“Anti-Hero” triumvirate at the top of the tally anytime soon — which says less about JVKE’s breakout hit and more about how sturdy those Miley Cyrus, SZA and Taylor Swift tracks have become at the Hot 100 summit.
Glenn Rowley: I think it’s probably reached its summit. It’ll be harder for it to climb much higher as the industry thaws from its January gloom and the release calendar starts heating up again.
Andrew Unterberger: Could maybe get another spot higher or two, but would probably need a major moment to get much higher than that. Speaking of which, though: Why is JVKE not booked to play the Grammys this year? He’s not a household name yet, but he could’ve brought some younger viewers to the ceremonies, and the ornate production and majestic presentation of “Golden Hour” actually makes it more auditorium-ready than a lot of the songs we’ll likely hear at the awards this year. (Plus his instrumental ability should make him an easier sell than most young artists to the stodgier Recording Academy members in attendance.) Could’ve been a win for both show and performer. Maybe next year.
4. Artists with TikTok-assisted breakouts sometimes find difficulty scoring a follow-up hit of comparable size — do you think JVKE has more high-level pop success in him, or is this likely closer to a charts one-off?
Stephen Daw: I think it depends on how JVKE proceeds from here; if he tries to go about replicating the sound and feel of “Golden Hour” in another song, then I don’t think it’ll work. “Golden Hour” succeeded because it stood out from a lot of what’s big on TikTok right now. If JVKE follows that gut instinct of making something that is as immediately striking thanks to its individuality, then I think there’s a very good chance that we’ll be seeing him again.
Lyndsey Havens: I do think there’s more here. Because of the way in which he blends his skills as a pianist, vocalist and lyricist, his music stands out and makes me intrigued to hear what’s next. And, of course, there’s the key part of him choosing to remain independent… helping me feel confident that without any outside forces suggesting or perhaps pushing him down alternate paths, what follows will be just as impressive — and entirely JVKE.
Jason Lipshutz: I do think JVKE will be heard from after “Golden Hour,” mostly because of the personality he flaunts on its verses — the way he comfortably sets the scene, distinguishes his voice and showcases his multi-faceted skill set in a short amount of time. “Golden Hour” isn’t a hit because of a quick, catchy melody or production gimmick, but because the artist powering it intrigues the listener throughout; maybe he won’t have another hit as big as “Golden Hour,” but JVKE has definitely caught the attention of a lot of people.
Glenn Rowley: I do think JVKE has potential to build on this moment. He clearly has the musical chops, which are demonstrated here far better than they were on, say, “Upside Down” back in 2020. This Is What ____ Feels Like (Vol. 1-4) is just such a unique beast as a debut album that wherever he does go from here, there’s no doubt it’ll certainly be interesting.
Andrew Unterberger: He might not be the type to chart with every song, but I’d bet we see JVKE again on the Hot 100 before long. He’s got the talent, the drive and the following — he’ll get his chances, and now that he’s got the one legitimate crossover hit, it probably won’t be so hard for him to score a second. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see him enlisted as a guest player on other stars’ records either; lord knows there are a lot of rappers out there who love a good dramatic piano loop.
5. Who’s another young pop artist that’s sorta been bubbling just below the mainstream so far this decade who you think might be due for a breakout hit like “Golden Hour” in the near future?
Stephen Daw: Do not sleep on Ashnikko. She has been just on the periphery of mainstream chart success — “Daisy” entered both the Pop and Alternative Airplay charts, but never quite managed to crack the Hot 100. But with every subsequent release, Ashnikko’s sound gets more and more refined and specific, so I think 2023 could be the year we finally see her make her way to a debut Hot 100 single.
Lyndsey Havens: I can see “Red Flags,” the latest single from British singer-songwriter Mimi Webb, enjoying a slow climb onto — and eventually up — the Hot 100. It’s a pure pop banger, and her upcoming debut album out this March could very well help with that journey.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m betting big on Gracie Abrams, who has been releasing pop songs over the past three years without impacting the Hot 100 but whose songs keep getting stronger as she gears up for her debut album, Good Riddance, next month. Don’t be surprised if an Abrams song is dominating the cultural conversation by the end of February.
Glenn Rowley: Four months ago, my immediate answer would’ve been Kim Petras, but “Unholy” obviously delivered a much-deserved breakout hit for her and then some. Shout-out to Maisie Peters, though — the U.K. pop darling people should keep a close eye on as she gears up for her sophomore album. You heard it here first: she has the songwriting chops to rival Olivia Rodrigo as Gen Z’s answer to Taylor Swift.
Andrew Unterberger: PinkPantheress just keeps getting closer to true breakout success, and her late 2022 single “Boy’s a Liar” might end up being her biggest streaming hit yet. She’s a pretty prolific creator, so it seems like only a matter of time before the right release at the right time puts her over the top; I’d almost be more surprised if she didn’t end up with a Hot 100 hit before 2023 was up.
The year in mega-pop is officially underway with the debut of Miley Cyrus‘ “Flowers.” The disco-pop post-breakup anthem is the first new Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 of 2023, bowing atop the chart dated Jan. 28 with 52.6 million streams, 70,000 digital songs sold and 33.5 million radio airplay impressions, according to Luminate.
Despite Cyrus’s 15-year career of hitmaking prior to “Flowers,” the song marks just her second visit to the Hot 100’s top spot (following “Wrecking Ball” in 2013) — and her first-ever No. 1 debut. The level of cross-platform success for the new song is due in part to fan speculation over the song’s real-life inspirations, including several well-circulated theories about Easter-egg allusions to Cyrus’ relationship with ex Liam Hemsworth buried throughout the song and its video.
What does the song mostly owe its tremendous initial success to? And are there any lessons other artists can take from it? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Flowers” debuts at No. 1 this week, marking Miley Cyrus’ first solo single to reach higher than No. 10 on the Hot 100 since “Wrecking Ball” in late 2013. Which part of that do you find more surprising — that “Flowers” has enjoyed such a blazing start, or that it’s been nearly a decade since Miley’s last hit on this level?
Rania Aniftos: The latter. Justice for Plastic Hearts! I can’t believe “Midnight Sky” wasn’t a No. 1 hit, or at least in the top five. Miley hasn’t stopped giving us hits, and I’m glad everyone else sees that now.
Katie Atkinson: Both? I think “Flowers” is a great, instantly catchy song with a universal (and empowering) message, but I’ve been partial to quite a few Miley songs over the last decade – namely “Midnight Sky” (especially its Stevie Nicks-assisted “Edge of Midnight” remix) and really her whole rock-star Plastic Hearts era; or her twangy Mark Ronson collab “Nothing Breaks Like a Heart”; or if you’re digging the ex-husband dirt on “Flowers,” might I suggest the sweeping, confessional “Slide Away”? Perhaps all of those (excellent) music moments from Miley over the past five years set the table for her to finally be back on top, where she clearly belongs.
Josh Glicksman: The latter is pretty stunning to me, though she has come close-ish a few times — previous lead singles “Malibu” and “Midnight Sky” reached No. 10 and No. 14, respectively. Of course, Miley Cyrus shifting her sonic direction a few times over that span is likely a factor, especially with regard to her resulting radio spin (her last time cracking the top 10 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay or Radio Songs chart is also “Wrecking Ball”). But perhaps equally shocking to me is that her last No. 1 album is Bangerz in 2013. Hopefully that gets resolved in short order as well.
Jason Lipshutz: The No. 1 debut for “Flowers.” I’m a pretty huge Miley fan, but she doesn’t have any singles over the past decade that leave me shocked that they didn’t make it to the top of the Hot 100 (although, in my heart, “Slide Away” was one of the biggest songs of 2019). The fact that “Flowers” has scored an enormous No. 1 debut isn’t too surprising when considering that Cyrus is still an A-list pop artist, and that the song has arrived during a slower part of the release calendar… but when reviewing her recent chart history, yeah, this is pretty unexpected.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s the new song’s performance for me. I’d grown used to Miley Cyrus as a pop star whose name recognition and general media interest has long outstripped her streaming or top 40 prowess — she’s had hits, but none of her singles since “Wrecking Ball” have been anywhere near unavoidable, excellent though many of them were. For her to come zooming in with an asteroid-sized hit that already seems a lock for year-end honors contention just three weeks into 2023… well, I would’ve needed quite the telescope to see it coming.
2. We’ve talked a little about some of the reasons behind the explosive debut of “Flowers” — which do you see as being the biggest factor in the song’s early success?
Rania Aniftos: While I think the fan theories surrounding how some of the lyrics may relate to her former marriage with Liam Hemsworth led people to listen to the song for the tea, at the end of the day, it’s an uplifting breakup song. No matter how many of those get released, it’s proven time and time again that people need music to heal from a heartbreak – and Miley delivered the perfect antidote for the newly single people out there.
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to vote a tie between January’s rapt music audience and the radio sheen of the Harry’s House crew. I’ve already heard the song on adult pop radio in heavy rotation, even though AC stations typically play established hits long after their debuts (alongside decades-old classics), not singles released a week prior. (Even Taylor Swift had to wait months for “Anti-Hero” to get adult pop action.) But when Diane Keaton is dancing to the song in her backyard and Gloria Gaynor is christening it the heir apparent to “I Will Survive,” the AC train apparently kicks into high gear.
Josh Glicksman: My lame instinct is to tell you that it’s a combination of these factors, but it’s hard to look past the power of a good fan theory in conjunction with TikTok’s impact. There are already more than 1.2 million user-created clips on the platform that use the song as a backdrop, and the additional layers to the perceived deeper meaning behind it all continue to roll in. Also, as a footnote to this factor, just the general presence of having a hype-worthy music video goes a long way in reaching an additional audience.
Jason Lipshutz: While “Flowers” is a strong entry in Cyrus’ singles discography, and I’m sure the Hemsworth Easter eggs drove some listenership, the timing of this rollout couldn’t have been more advantageous for its chances to hit No. 1. Announcing “Flowers” on a network television New Year’s Eve show watched by millions around the world, followed by a single release at a moment where holiday music had fallen off the charts and listeners were starving for a new jam, was a stroke of genius by Team Cyrus. Casual listeners and pop diehards alike were aware that “Flowers” was coming out on Jan. 13, and when it arrived, the single dominated the cultural conversation before streaking to No. 1.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s gotta be the social media interest. “Flowers” would’ve been a hit regardless, but unless you’re Adele, Taylor Swift or Harry Styles, you don’t score a debut this massive this quickly without a significant amount of extra-musical interest — interest in the backstory, interest in the discussion and drama around it, interest in related memes even. For better or worse, that’s the kind of stuff that really drives culture in 2023 — though it should be said that none of this off-court interest would last (or likely even exist at the first place) without a dynamite pop song at the center of it.
3. Given that the strategy and promotion behind “Flowers” seems to have paid off pretty well, what’s a lesson (if any) that you think other artists and their teams might be able take from its resounding debut?
Rania Aniftos: Be mysterious! Those posters around Los Angeles got fans so excited with little to no information. Instead of shoving the promo down their throats, Miley let the music speak for itself — and that worked out so well for her.
Katie Atkinson: I think this one might be a tad too complex to distill into advice for other artists. It goes something like this: Start out with the goodwill of a generation of tweens thanks to your wildly popular Disney Channel series, movies and albums; transition to a hip-hop-infused pop sound that nets you your first Hot 100 No. 1 and forces people to see you as an adult artist; make a decade worth of beloved-but-not-as-commercially-blazing albums that quietly win over new corners of fans and supporters; and finally, create a radio-friendly song with an undeniably universal message that arrives just at the right time to capitalize on the widest audience. That’s it!
Josh Glicksman: I’d have two big takeaways here: First, lean into a little mystique! It’d be a lot less exciting if Miley were to explicitly address all of the rumors circulating about what may and may not be a subtle jab. Instead, leave it to the listeners to speculate and continue looping back the song to check every square inch of the song and video for clues. And secondly, don’t overthink the lead single. Oftentimes, the down-the-middle fastball of a pop hit works wonders, and it’ll dance around in radio programmers’ heads long after the rest of the album rolls out.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d expect more jockeying for the First Big Release of the Year in the future. January has always been a sleepy time for pop releases, with major artists opting to save their hits for the summer months… but the way that Cyrus has been able to rule the discourse during this month must have other major artists and labels rethinking their strategies. People want new hits to kick off their year following the holidays, and in 2024 and beyond, I’d bet more artists make bids to efficiently supply those new hits.
Andrew Unterberger: Drop in January. Drop in January. Drop in January. I don’t know how many times we have to see this happen before major artists take the hint — everyone seems to think that the winter months are a dead zone for commercial releases, but that’s only because our biggest artists treat them like one. Time and time again, we see hitmakers new and established taking advantage of the lack of major competition early in the calendar and scoring career-changing hits as a result. (Hell, even the flops don’t flop as hard early in the year — you probably haven’t thought about Dua Lipa and Megan Thee Stallion’s disappointing March release “Sweetest Pie” since at least last summer, but damn if it didn’t show up at No. 62 on our 2022 Year-End Hot 100 just the same.)
4. Now that Miley has scored her first no-doubt crossover smash in a while, who’s another veteran pop star with lesser commercial returns recently who you think might be due for a home-run comeback in 2023?
Rania Aniftos: Selena Gomez. Let’s revive the old school Disney Channel days once and for all.
Katie Atkinson: We can look at the exact same 10-year time frame as Miley and see that Katy Perry’s only top 10 Hot 100 hit since 2013 is “Chained to the Rhythm” with Skip Marley, which peaked at No. 4 in 2017 and quickly dissipated. Knowing what a major force she was in pop – with nine Hot 100 No. 1s and 14 top 10s – she could be just one song away from her own renaissance.
Josh Glicksman: How about Camila Cabello? I don’t necessarily expect her to release another album on the heels of Familia, but I could see a handful of singles or notable collaborations that propel her back into the top 10 — a region that has eluded her since “Señorita,” which reached the top of the Hot 100 in 2019. She’s come close a few times since then (with “My Oh My” peaking at No. 12 in 2020 and “Bam Bam” reaching a No. 21 high last May), but perhaps 2023 is the year of the return.
Jason Lipshutz: Over the past half-decade, Demi Lovato has veered away from traditional pop in favor of genre exploration, most recently with last year’s great pop-punk exercise Holy Fvck. Discount Demi The Pop Star at your own risk, though: with a still-immaculate voice, plenty of mid-2010s hits and a ton of industry goodwill, the singer-songwriter could seamlessly return with a new hit in 2023 — especially considering that Lovato returned with an old smash going viral in 2022.
Andrew Unterberger: Kesha hasn’t seemed to have much interest in a full-bore top 40 return since her post-Dr. Luke return to recording, favoring a more personal and rock-based brand of her trademark pop assault that wasn’t much in step with radio trends of the late 2010s. But with pop-rock on the commercial upswing again and Kesha’s signature hits starting to fall in that magical nostalgia zone of 10-15 years past, I feel like her next album could have some much greater commercial potential — at least if she works with the right people on it, and if it’s something she wants in general.
5. With “Flower” power once again in full bloom on the Billboard charts, what’s your favorite flower-themed pop song of past years?
Rania Aniftos: “Bloom” by Troye Sivan perfectly blends being cheeky with being consumable for the pop audiences. It’s funny and catchy and so underrated.
Katie Atkinson: I love “Sunflower, Vol. 6” from Harry Styles’ Fine line, but it wasn’t a hit on our charts as a non-single, so maybe “Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse),” the 2018 Hot 100 topper from Post Malone and Swae Lee, is a better… pick.
Josh Glicksman: Hard to beat Outkast’s “Roses” from Speakerboxxx/The Love Below, though I’m more of a hydrangeas kind of guy, myself.
Jason Lipshutz: “Sunflower” by Swae Lee & Post Malone rules — so catchy, so guileless! — as does Harry Styles’ warmth-radiating pop-rocker “Sunflower, Vol. 6.” When are we getting “Sunflower Vol. 2-5,” though? The cycle needs to be completed, gentlemen!
Andrew Unterberger: Oh yeah, we’re taking it all the way back to 1959, with Chris Barber’s Jazz Band’s version of “Petite Fleur (Little Flower),” a hypnotic instrumental and top 5 Hot 100 hit that basically does for the clarinet what Eurythmics’ “Sweet Dreams (Are Made of This)” does for the synthesizer. (You might also know it from a dance scene in season seven of Mad Men, or from a brilliant Dr. Dre interpolation in his supergroup The Firm’s 1997 almost-hit “Phone Tap.”)
Rising country/Americana star Zach Bryan spent most of 2022 gradually crossing over to the mainstream, as his viral success online began translating to massive streaming numbers — particularly for 34-track official debut LP American Heartbreak, which debuted at No. 5 on the Billboard 200 in June and is still in the chart’s top 10 seven months later.
This week, Bryan adds another big item to his chart resumé, as Heartbreak single “Something in the Orange” finishes its slow climb to the Billboard Hot 100‘s top 10 — 38 weeks, tied for the second-longest in chart history (behind only Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves”) — as it lands at No. 10 this week. It’s a particularly impressive rise for Bryan, who has found most of his success outside of the traditional Nashville path, with country radio in particular still appearing hesitant to fully embrace his breakout smash.
How did Zach Bryan get here? And which ascendant country artist might be next to follow in his chart footsteps? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Something in the Orange” reaches No. 10 in its 38th week on the chart. On a scale of 1-10, how surprised are you that this song is finally a top 10 hit?
Jason Lipshutz: A 6. As a Zach Bryan fan who has witnessed his surge in popularity and the groundswell of support around “Something in the Orange,” its slow ascent up into the top 10 doesn’t arrive as a shock. Yet sparse, heartbroken country ballads, from a relatively new artist with a muted presence at country radio, aren’t regular fixtures within the upper reaches of the Hot 100, either. Standing back from the situation, “Something in the Orange” has experienced a singular rise as a crossover smash — even if I’ve been waiting for this day to come for the past month or two.
Melinda Newman: 5. Though it’s still relatively rare for country songs to reach such heights on the Hot 100, it is becoming increasingly more common as country catches up with other genres in streaming (the Hot 100 combines sales, radio play and streaming). In the last year alone Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen (twice!) have also reached the top 10. What is surprising is that Bryan accomplished the feat after 38 weeks on the chart. On Country Airplay, such a long trek to the top 10 is commonplace, but Hot 100 drives are usually much quicker—so much so that Bryan’s climb is the second-longest trip to the top 10.
Jessica Nicholson: 3. The song has been a mainstay since debuting on the Billboard charts in May 2022, and has spent three weeks at the pinnacle of Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart.
Andrew Unterberger: Probably an 8, and it might’ve been higher if you asked me back when I first heard the song in mid-2021. This sort of rawer, rockier, Americana-leaning country has been a major part of the musical landscape for most of the last decade — but it’s had virtually no Hot 100 presence whatsoever, as artists like Jason Isbell and Sturgill Simpson have notched their successes almost exclusively on the albums side of things. But streaming (and TikTok specifically) continue to rewrite the rule book on this stuff, and now you can notch a dusty heartbreak power ballad up there on the Hot 100 alongside Harry Styles and Drake/21 Savage. Not mad at it, but definitely surprised.
Christine Werthman: I am a 7. Bryan’s career has seen a rapid rise over the last year, thanks to his extensive touring and impressive streaming numbers, but I wasn’t sure if that would be enough to hoist this modest superstar into the top 10. Clearly, it was, and it’s nice to see him up there.
2. Bryan has been one of the past year’s biggest breakthrough artists — with his American Heartbreak album sticking in or around the Billboard 200’s top 10 for nearly its whole run since debuting last spring — despite being a country-rooted artist who didn’t go through the traditional Nashville machine. What’s the biggest factor you attribute his high level of success to?
Jason Lipshutz: Sometimes the songs, and the voice delivering them, simply transcend the context around them. Bryan is not your typical country star, American Heartbreak is far from an accessible project for country interlopers, and “Something in the Orange” doesn’t sound like a no-brainer breakout hit… but Bryan’s grizzled delivery is undeniable, Heartbreak has some of the most effective runs of any country album in recent memory, and “Something in the Orange” packs an emotional wallop on every listen. None of it should make sense as a commercial entity, but it doesn’t have to if the message resonates this clearly.
Melinda Newman: There is an authentic rawness and tough vulnerability to Bryan’s songs that is extremely appealing and that cuts through much of the overproduced clutter on radio — but part of American Heartbreak’s staying power in the top 10 is also a numbers game. The album has 34 tracks, and with streaming a major determining factor in chart positions, there are three times the number of tracks on many standard albums. There is still plenty there for people to discover, even seven months later.
Jessica Nicholson: His excels at translating his life’s journey into poetic, vulnerable lyrics with a sparse production, which is a change from the slick, homogenous productions and sometimes surface-level lyrics that have dominated many radio and streaming hits over the past decade or so. At the same time, he’s been fairly prolific in releasing new music, adding his Summertime Blues EP and December’s All My Homies Hate Ticketmaster (Live From Red Rocks) album to his American Heartbreak album — something that hyper-consuming, streaming-oriented fans have appreciated.
Andrew Unterberger: I dunno if it’s the biggest factor, but I gotta say that since I’ve been catching up on Yellowstone — the most popular melodrama on TV right now, though you might not know it from critics’ lists or social media buzz — Zach Bryan’s mega-success is starting to make a lot more sense to me. His windswept lonely-traveler anthems have made the perfect soundtrack for the show’s Montana sunset vibe on multiple occasions, both adding to his exposure and giving his aesthetic a foothold at the center of pop culture. It’s raised the commercial ceiling for Bryan and likeminded artists, at the very least.
Christine Werthman: Bryan is a 26-year-old Navy veteran who writes from the heart and isn’t afraid to share his pain and loss in his music, elements that make him relatable to a wide swath of people. He also knows how to get a crowd going, as you can hear on the live album he put out at the end of 2022, and he gave fans upward of 60 chances to see him on the road last year. He also put out a 34-song album, which never hurts your streaming count if you’ve got the listeners to tune in. These might not be the surest options for some new artists trying to get off the ground, but all these factors combined to grow Bryan’s audience and help him map a viable detour around Nashville.
3. While “Something” continues to scale the Hot 100, Bryan has multiple other songs also currently climbing on streaming — including fellow Heartbreak tracks in “From Austin” and “Sun to Me,” as well as his original viral breakout hit, 2019’s “Heading South.” Do either of them feel to you like they could cross over like “Something” has, or will a potential next hit have to wait for his follow-up album?
Jason Lipshutz: “From Austin” sounds like the one that could potentially take off next: it sports the fragile production and well-worn lyricism of “Something in the Orange” in its verses, but then opens up into a swelling chorus, which eventually crests when horns come crashing in. A song that’s reminiscent of “Orange,” then takes a left turn towards more rousing territory, sounds like the perfect blueprint for a follow-up hit for Bryan — and although his path to fame has been far from traditional, “From Austin” remains unassailable in this context.
Melinda Newman: “Heading South” is the obviously successor here given its streaming numbers, which are far ahead of “From Austin” and “Sun To Me.” Plus, thematically, it’s different as can be from “Something,” whereas “From Austin’ and “Sun to Me” both similarly deal with relationships where Bryan is seeking some kind of salvation. The autobiographical “Heading South” is about redemption of another kind- the kind that comes from following your dreams. It packs a different kind of emotional wallop than the quietly devastating “Something.”
Jessica Nicholson: “Sun to Me” trades the anguish found in “Something in the Orange” for an aura of gratitude, but is still filled with detailed imagery and stirring lyrics, such as “Find someone who grows flowers in the darkest parts of you.” The song has gained traction on the Hot Country Songs chart and the Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart, meanwhile, his “Oklahoma Smoke Show,” currently in the top 30 on the Hot Country Songs chart, also shows potential for big chart success.
Andrew Unterberger: Feels weird to say about a song that’s already four years old — and probably the first song a lot of current folks heard of his — but it’s “Heading South.” It’s got an anthemic, almost fist-pumping quality that makes a proper contrast to the more mournful “Orange,” and to the thousands (millions?) of new fans who came around to Bryan because of that song and Heartbreak, it may as well be a brand-new single. Plus, if you hear the version found on Bryan’s excellent new live set All My Homies Hate Ticketmaster, you’ll know the power the song has in enrapturing large crowds.
Christine Werthman: I do love “Heading South,” but I think “From Austin” is the next potential hit. It’s nostalgic, sweet and finds Bryan facing his demons, or as he says, “repression is my heaven, but I’d rather go through hell.” With a driving rhythm, meaty guitars and a growling chorus, this could be a country banger.
4. The numbers from Bryan’s rookie season certainly suggest a future superstar, but do you feel he’s gotten the national attention from the public or the media that his stats would usually merit? If not, why do you think that’s been lagging?
Jason Lipshutz: From his lack of media appearances to the decision to title a recent live album All My Homies Hate Ticketmaster, Bryan portrays himself as an outsider, and doesn’t jump through the traditional hoops that popular country music has constructed for a rising star. Of course, that approach has earned him a ton of fans — aside from his music, his image is easy to buy into and root for, particularly if you’re a country fan searching for someone with a fresh perspective. Maybe he’s been dinged within and outside of Nashville for shrugging off longstanding levels of country fame and fortune, but his stats and audience sizes suggest that any lag hasn’t really mattered — and that Bryan is going to stick with what’s worked for him thus far.
Melinda Newman: Bryan’s building an audience based on streaming and touring and it’s working. His songs have been streamed more than 2.5 million times and he’s already selling out venues like Denver’s Red Rocks. While he’s gotten some airplay, he eschews traditional promotional means including interviews — he’s talked only to the New York Times — or television. He’s performed on no late night or daytime shows. If he’s not getting the national attention he deserves, that’s simply because he’s taken himself out of that equation.
Jessica Nicholson: He certainly has a fervent fanbase — and one factor in the reason for the relative lack of national media looks is that he has chosen to connect directly to his fans first, rather than primarily through media outlets.
Andrew Unterberger: I think the national public and media are always a little slow to catch on when it comes to new country phenoms — a lot of the genre still gets silo’d from the larger musical mainstream, particularly in markets like New York and Los Angeles — and that’s particularly true with independent successes like Bryan, who don’t have a major presence at festivals or award shows or other potential crossover platforms yet. You hoped the Grammys might’ve provided that first true national look for Bryan, but given his snubbing among this year’s best new artist nominees (when he seemed like a lock for a nod), it might have to wait until next year.
Christine Werthman: Not quite, and maybe that’s lagging because he didn’t go the traditional Nashville route and is missing out on some of the levers that that machine would have been able to pull. But with a top 10 hit, it seems like the public and the media will catch up soon even without that intervention.
5. Now that Bryan has hit the top 10, what other country singer-songwriter on the rise do you think has the best shot at joining him in the Hot 100’s top tier before the end of 2023?
Jason Lipshutz: Ashley McBryde is one of the best singer-songwriters in country music with a ton of industry goodwill and even more hooks begging for massive audiences. She spent last year releasing and supporting Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville, a multi-artist concept album brimming with heart and ambition; if she releases a traditional project in 2023, I’d bet that she finally crosses over with it.
Melinda Newman: Bailey Zimmerman. He’s only 22, but Zimmerman made history on Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart in August when he landed three career-opening entries in the top 10 simultaneously. Leading the pack was “Rock and a Hard Place,” a gritty tune about a busted relationship that also hit the top 20 on Country Airplay. He’s off to an auspicious start.
Jessica Nicholson: Bailey Zimmerman’s “Rock and a Hard Place” is currently at No. 17 on the Hot 100. He’s seen two additional songs — “Where It Ends” and “Fall in Love” — reach the top 40 on the Hot 100 over the past year, and all three of those songs reached the top 10 on Hot Country Songs chart. “Fall in Love” also topped the Country Airplay chart. However, Lainey Wilson’s “Heart Like a Truck” is also in the top 40. With her recent CMA Awards wins and additional exposure from her recent role on Yellowstone, there is potential for this track reach the top 10 as well.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s gotta be either Zimmerman or Wilson — with the former probably getting a bit of an edge due to his early head-start on streaming.
Christine Werthman: I’ve got my eye on Megan Moroney, the Georgia singer-songwriter who signed with Sony Music Nashville and Columbia Records last year. She’s got a little rasp to her voice and a heart-on-her-sleeve style, and her song “Tennessee Orange” is currently at No. 58 on the Hot 100.
While the first new Billboard Hot 100 of 2023 was still overrun by holiday songs from Mariah Carey, Brenda Lee and many more, every one of them departs the listing for the chart dated Jan. 14 — giving us our first real look at the current landscape of pop hits as we get into the new year.
With “All I Want for Christmas Is You” vacating the top spot, the void is once again filled by Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” notching its seventh week at No. 1, followed by Sam Smith & Kim Petras’ “Unholy,” SZA’s “Kill Bill,” David Guetta & Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue)” and Drake & 21 Savage’s “Rich Flex.” Slightly lower on the chart, two songs hit the top 10 for the first time: The Weeknd’s recently revived “Die for You” (No. 8) and Beyoncé’s slow-burning “Cuff It” (No. 10).
What’s the most telling thing about the Hot 100’s current top tier? And what might still be in store for chart watchers this month based on these early returns? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. With the holiday music cobwebs being swept away from the Hot 100, we’re back to the top of the chart being ruled by late last year’s hits. Is there anything about the top five as it currently stands that you find particularly interesting or surprising?
Katie Atkinson: The staying power of David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue)” continues to surprise me – as I’m sure it does David and Bebe themselves. We’ve been talking about the unlikely global success of this song since September, and it just keeps getting unlikelier as it debuts in the top five this week (No. 4). This is only Rexha’s second top five hit on the Hot 100 (following her unstoppable country team-up with Florida Georgia Line “Meant to Be”) and Guetta’s fourth, with his most recent (“Turn Me On” with Nicki Minaj) peaking more than a decade ago now, in February 2012. It’s an eccentric ‘90s interpolation recorded by the duo years ago and then unearthed by eager fans on TikTok – and it’s not going anywhere.
Stephen Daw: David Guetta & Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue)” launching from 19-4 isn’t necessarily shocking, but I certainly did not have that song breaking into the top five on my 2023 bingo card, let alone reaching that spot just two weeks into the year. Between the song’s aggressive marketing on TikTok and at radio and the typically slow start to the year, though, it makes sense why a slow-burning hit like this would be such a big draw for the post-holiday charts. But I was certainly surprised, considering that I had assumed that the song’s cultural capital was already on the decline.
Lyndsey Havens: The two things that surprise me are that “Anti-Hero” returned to the chart’s summit and the fact that David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue)” has crept into the top five. Given the sustained success of SOS on the Billboard 200 albums chart, I would have guessed that SZA would also be able to score the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 after the holiday fallout … but perhaps in good time. And by in good time, I mean by the time the anticipated music video for “Kill Bill” arrives.
Jason Lipshutz: I wrote about SZA’s “Kill Bill” in this space last week, but its return to its No. 3 peak this week underlines just how huge of a solo hit it’s becoming for an artist who’s not generally known for her solo hits. Although it’s sitting behind Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero” and Sam Smith & Kim Petras’ “Unholy” — two singles with an enormous presence on top 40 radio — on this week’s chart, “Kill Bill” is likely going to receive more radio play soon, and if its streaming presence remains rock-solid, SZA’s highest-charting solo song to date could climb even higher in the coming weeks.
Andrew Unterberger: I think “Unholy” holding at No. 2 — higher than “Kill Bill,” which already feels like the first major pop hit of 2023 — is a little surprising, given that the cultural peak of that song seems a few months in the rearview already. That’ll probably even out in the weeks to come, but the song holding this strong shows how “Unholy” wasn’t just a TikTok moment, it’s legitimately one of the biggest pop hits of the decade so far.
2. At No. 8, a song hits the top 10 for the first time that makes all the other leftovers feel farm-to-table fresh by comparison: The Weeknd’s “Die for You,” a revived track off his 2016 album Starboy. Why do you think the song has proven to have such legs this late in its lifespan?
Katie Atkinson: I think pop radio fans had an insatiable appetite for The Weeknd that the release of his Dawn FM album a year ago this week didn’t quite feed. So as “Die for You” gained traction via TikTok concurrent to his new album’s release, The Weeknd benefited from music’s everything-old-is-new-again moment. Most casual pop radio listeners likely have no idea it’s a “deep cut” from 2016 and are just appreciating his latest hit.
Stephen Daw: TikTok works in mysterious ways, especially when it comes to deep cut, fan-favorite tracks from a pop megastar. “Die for You” has a universal appeal to its production and vocal, which is what helped it achieve cult-like fave status from The Weeknd’s fervid fans — so once fans begin posting about revisiting their favorite Weeknd songs on TikTok, a groovy earworm like “Die for You” is bound to catch fire.
Lyndsey Havens: Honestly, I forgot “Die for You” was years old — and I’m guessing I’m not the only one. While much of the Starboy era felt like a bit more of a mainstream grab compared to The Weeknd’s prior work, years later, “Die For You” sounds right at home with the artist he is today. Plus, with the rumors of his last two albums being part of a trilogy, perhaps fans just got impatient while waiting for the finale. If the song’s sudden rise is more strategic than that, though, as most things are today … I’m curious to know if “Die for You” is a teaser of what to expect from what’s still to come.
Jason Lipshutz: In my mind, the “Die for You” TikTok revival-turned-mainstream adoption is a cross between Taylor Swift’s “All Too Well” comeback, as a fan-favorite song from a superstar getting a long second look, and David Guetta & Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue)” success, as a long-delayed explosion for a years-old song that still sounds current despite its release date. “Die for You” is another mid-tempo Weeknd sing-along with a catchy-as-hell chorus, and once fans — some of whom had been championing the song for years — started watching it flicker to life on social media, they raised it up with undeniable streaming numbers, radio took notice, and now it’s a top 10 hit.
Andrew Unterberger: It seems like a “well, why not?” sort of hit to me: The song had been viral forever and top 40 programmers didn’t find anything they liked enough on Dawn FM to make an After Hours-sized hit out of, and so they decided to fill the Weeknd-sized void on their playlists with… more Weeknd. I’m surprised it’s gone this long and this strong, but the competition just isn’t that strong near the top of the charts right now, and hey, who doesn’t like “Die for You”?
3. Also new to the top 10 this week is Beyoncé’s “Cuff It,” which marks her second top 10 hit off Renaissance following the chart-topping “Break My Soul.” Is the second hit a big deal for the Queen and her latest album, or more of a pleasant New Year’s bonus?
Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely a big deal. It feels like fans have ordained this one the pop hit from the album, and I could see it marking the second No. 1 from Renaissance – especially if Queen B gifts fans with a music video. “Cuff It” has had a life of its own, starting with a dance challenge back in August and going strong into 2023 thanks to a crafty radio edit finally getting its airplay due.
Stephen Daw: It’s very much a big deal. Much like how “Break My Soul” was Beyoncé’s first solo No. 1 hit since “Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)” in 2008, Renaissance now becomes the first Beyoncé album since I Am … Sasha Fierce (2008) to spawn at least two of her 21 top 10 hits. The fact that Bey can re-reach the heights of her cultural dominance more than a decade after the fact is a feat that very few pop stars could manage in their careers. Though the headliner of Renaissance will forever be “Break My Soul,” “Cuff It” deserves recognition for only further solidifying Queen Bey’s regal status.
Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s a big deal for one reason: Fans are begging for more content — aka music videos. To have “Cuff It” go top 10 without it, or without any push from Queen B herself, proves that whatever she does or wants to do going forward will always work.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m not sure how much it matters for an artist like Beyoncé if her widely beloved and commercially successful new album only had one top 10 hit instead of two… but now it doesn’t! So yes, more of a pleasant New Year’s bonus for Queen Bey than important milestone, but also, “Cuff It” rules, a killer dance track with tons of interesting sonic details and one of the cooler breakdowns in pop music last year. It’s a deserving top 10 hit, and I’m glad it finally got there.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a big deal mostly because it’s good timing for the Queen. It keeps her in the mainstream while she preps whatever transmission is to come next from the Renaissanceverse, and also keeping her top of mind with Grammy voters as she gears up for perhaps the best opportunity of her career to finally grab the coveted album of the year trophy. Also worth noting that while “Cuff It” may not match the No. 1 Hot 100 peak of “Break My Soul,” it’s already passed it in terms of endurance — the song reaches the top 10 in its 21st week, while “Soul” was off the chart altogether by its 19th week.
4. Lower in the top 40, is there any song you’re looking to maybe make a jump into the top 10 in the weeks to come?
Katie Atkinson: This feels like a cop-out because it only has to climb one spot, but I think Zach Bryan peaking at No. 11 this week with “Something in the Orange” shows that his breakthrough hit still has legs and could definitely make it to the top 10. It’s been out since April, but it also just climbed to No. 1 on the Hot Country Songs chart last week.
Stephen Daw: I think these coming few weeks are Meghan Trainor’s chance to get the top 10 hit she’s looking for in “Made You Look.” You cannot open TikTok at this point without hearing about the singer having her Gucci on, and as longer-lasting hits like “Bad Habit” and “As It Was” begin to lose steam again, “Made You Look” could find its moment in the spotlight if it manages to keep its trajectory up on streaming and radio.
Lyndsey Havens: If by top 40 you mean top 100, then yes: I have my eye on the Lewis Capaldi slow-burner of a comeback, “Forget Me.” Having made the jump from No. 98 to No. 74 this week — and given his previous two top 10 hits, one of which went to No. 1 (who could forget “Someone You Loved”?) — I think he’s more than capable of making another big leap.
Jason Lipshutz: Now is the time for the “Just Wanna Rock” takeover: Lil Uzi Vert’s Jersey club riff jumps up to a new peak of No. 16 this week, its furious energy and frenzied yelps making its presence known in clubs and sports arenas this winter. After a relatively slow start, “Just Wanna Rock” feels primed to become one of the defining songs of the first few months of the year, and should be another top 10 entry for Uzi.
Andrew Unterberger: “Made You Look.” For better or worse, it’s all aboard the M-Train for the next couple months on radio and streaming.
5. While the Hot 100 being largely static and leftover-dominated is certainly nothing new for the month of January, the previous two years also saw the tedium cut into by fresher cultural phenoms like Olivia Rodrigo and the Encanto soundtrack. Do you think we’ll get something like that this January — and if so, might we have any clue of what it will be yet?
Katie Atkinson: I would love to see “Titanium (M3GAN’s Version)” be our next top 10 Hot 100 hit! In all seriousness, though, I don’t think a chart-smashing new artist or film soundtrack has arrived this year (yet). Maybe Rodrigo herself, who just teased that she’s working on music, could once again own January.
Stephen Daw: Look, I’m biased, but I’m rooting for Sam Smith to keep their momentum going well into January and beyond. They have a highly anticipated new album out at the end of the month, and a trop-house-infused new single with Jessie Reyez and Koffee, “Gimme,” dropping tomorrow. If they can continue their excellent work at promoting their material via TikTok, that song could sweep through the charts and make January Sam Smith’s best month yet.
Lyndsey Havens: Though it wouldn’t be as surprising as the sudden runaway success stories of Olivia and Encanto, I do think that Miss Miley may soon own the month of January — and maybe even the whole year. After kicking things off with another successful NYE show, during which she announced her upcoming single “Flowers,” and subsequently revealing her new album Endless Summer Vacation to be coming in March, Cyrus is poised to dominate early 2023.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s going to be interesting to see what Miley Cyrus, whose new single “Flowers” arrives this Friday, has in her holster this time around. Cyrus is a superstar with a track record of making hits and a ton of goodwill, who’s coming off of a great album, 2020’s Plastic Hearts, that didn’t really produce a smash. If “Flowers” delivers, though, Cyrus has a relatively clear lane to the first big new pop single of 2023.
Andrew Unterberger: I think we actually got the January phenom a couple weeks early this year, with SZA’s SOS album in mid-December. And based on the fact that the album is still No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in its fourth week — and still claiming a whopping 15 entries on the Hot 100 — it looks like the set may still carry the first month of 2023 anyway.
As we begin 2023, the Billboard 200 albums chart is once again dominated by the same set that crowned the chart the final two weeks of 2022: R&B superstar SZA‘s long-awaited sophomore effort SOS.
The album, which bowed at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 24) with 318,000 equivalent album units, has continued to move well over 100,000 units each week of its release — posting 128,000 this most recent week (dated Jan. 7), enough to land it comfortably in the top spot. Meanwhile, breakout cut “Kill Bill” remains lingering just outside of the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100, two weeks after scoring the album’s highest debut on the chart with its No. 3 entrance.
Are these numbers surprising for SZA at this point in her career? And which other R&B artists have the most-anticipated upcoming projects for 2023 and beyond? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. SZA’s first-week bow for SOS was resounding — a career-best 318,000 equivalent album units — and the album has continued to crank out six-figure weeks, topping the Billboard 200 for a third frame with 128,000 units this week, even in the midst of the holiday season. Which is more impressive to you, the album’s debut or its endurance?
Cydney Lee: If I had to choose, I’d say its endurance is more impressive, but even that’s not surprising to me. Not only was SZA’s next album highly anticipated by nearly everyone, I also think timing worked in her favor too. For her to basically cap off the year with her comeback album, and at a time when major music releases are starting to slow down due to the holidays, there was no doubt she would dominate the night of her release and subsequent weeks. Not that she wouldn’t have all eyes/ears on her if she dropped at any other time, either — but the timing, obviously along with the music itself, is what officially made this “SZA Season.”
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely its endurance. If SZA was a cult R&B figure, a major debut that snaps a prolonged absence (and then plummets down the Billboard 200 chart) would make sense — but the continued performance of SZA’s first album in five years confirms that she’s transcended that status, has far more fans than just the diehards, and is now a straight-up superstar. SZA’s Ctrl follow-up was always going to be a major moment, but the endurance of SOS atop the Billboard 200 — with six-figure equivalent album unit totals each week! — represents a groundbreaking moment for her mainstream profile.
Heran Mamo: The album’s endurance. SZA has never had a No. 1 album until now. Despite Ctrl’s ability toshift the culture, it never moved past its No. 3 debut on the Billboard 200 back in June 2017. To launch at the top of the chart is impressive albeit expected given it’s her first new album in five years and there was a lot of hype (I’m talking years’ worth) surrounding SOS. prior to its release. And sure, it’s been a relatively quiet winter so far in terms of new music releases, so SZA didn’t have much competition. But putting up six-figure equivalent album units for the last three consecutive weeks – and becoming the first R&B album by a woman to spend three weeks at No. 1 since Beyonce’s self-titled in 2013 – are much harder feats to accomplish. And she did that!
Kristin Robinson: This album was highly anticipated, given the critical and commercial success of Ctrl and other singles she’s worked on, so I am not surprised there was a lot of initial interest in this album. In the streaming age, when there no financial barrier to testing out a new album in full, an artist as beloved as SZA can anticipate solid numbers for the first few days — because this indicates that many people were at least curious about the project and gave it a couple spins.
True success for an artist today comes in the form of streaming endurance. If people didn’t like this album, the streaming numbers for this album would’ve fallen off of a cliff after the first or second week, but it totally didn’t. The endurance of SOS. is even more impressive when you also consider people were busy with the holidays, likely spending much of their time listening to seasonal music. Still, they kept SZA in rotation. It’s a clear testament to the quality of her work.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s gotta be the endurance. It’d be over-simplifying to say that anyone can post a six-digit first week in 2023 — obviously, it’s still only a select class of artists that can do that — but most true stars can do so on name recognition alone. It takes a great album to continue putting those numbers up week after week. Several albums last year had bigger opening weeks than Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti in 2022, but the reason why it ended as the year’s No. 1 album (by both Billboard chart metrics and staff estimation) is because folks couldn’t stop listening to it for months after. SOS may be headed for a similar trajectory.
2. Though SZA has long been one of the bigger names in popular music, this is her first time putting up blockbuster numbers like this — in large part because it’s still only her second album. Do the numbers surprise you, or did you see them coming for her at this point in her career?
Cydney Lee: I’m not surprised. SZA came out swinging with Ctrl, then only poked her head out here-and-there and offered crumbs for the past five years. Her trajectory is interesting, though. I think the anticipation of her next project is what maybe drove her to more of a mainstream status.
If one thing about SZA’s recent success surprised me, it’s the fact that she’s headlining an arena tour. Despite her success and popularity, I honestly didn’t think she would be at arena-level quite yet, but maybe theater venues. Regardless, I love this for her, and I hope she can find a balance between this increasing fame and protecting her mental health and peace.
Jason Lipshutz: Considering how well Ctrl has aged since its release — becoming one of the more fiercely beloved R&B releases of the decade — and how SZA has showcased her crossover appeal by guesting on top 10 Hot 100 hits by Kendrick Lamar and Doja Cat since its release, her second album was always headed toward a ton of fanfare and a likely No. 1 debut. Yet that debut number of 318,000 equivalent album units surprised me — a huge sum for any artist, but especially for an idiosyncratic R&B artist who’s never tried to cater to the mainstream. It’s the sort of debut that demonstrates how many people were waiting for SZA to return, and how many are rooting for her now that she has.
Heran Mamo: Considering the blockbuster streaming numbers that her advance singles like “Good Days” and “I Hate U” were putting up (“Good Days” had earned more than 500 million official on-demand U.S. streams prior to SOS’ arrival), I’m not totally caught off guard by the entire LP’s six-digit figures. Her strength is certainly in streaming, considering how in its first week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, SOS garnered the biggest streaming week ever for an R&B album, and the third-largest of 2022 among all albums.
Kristin Robinson: I saw these numbers coming for her, because I’ve always believed in her one-in-a-million kind of talent — but that doesn’t mean it was easy or guaranteed. Starting off with a debut album as well-crafted as Ctrl means that the bar was set incredibly high for SZA, almost insurmountably high. If listeners didn’t like this album, they would’ve been quick to abandon it and write her off as a one-album wonder, but she took her time and came back with a wonderful project that can stand proudly beside Ctrl. It was worth the wait. Of course, these numbers were also aided by the large track list, but I think they indicate people are ready to accept SZA as the true star she is.
Andrew Unterberger: They’re maybe at the high-end of my expectations, but they’re still not that surprising. SZA has proven herself as a generational R&B artist with crossover hitmaker potential, and those are the kind of artists that post huge numbers whenever they drop new albums — especially if it’s been a half-decade since the last one, with the excitement only ever crescendoing over that period.
3. Of the album’s 22 tracks, the best-performing by far has been “Kill Bill” — which has the advantage of coming early in the album, but also has been easily outpacing its surrounding tracks. What do you think is the biggest factor in its early success, and do you see it continuing throughout the early months of 2023?
Cydney Lee: “Kill Bill” is a song for people who love hard. “I might kill my ex/ Not the best idea/ His new girlfriend’s next/ How’d I get here?,” that chorus is so blunt, and while I obviously am not encouraging anyone to act on this, what woman (especially) hasn’t emotionally been there before?? Also, people just love violence, and seem to have a weird fascination with “crazy in love” relationship dynamics — and with it being track two on SOS, it almost felt like it was setting the tone for the album. So I can see why people are latching on to this one.
As far as longevity, I see “Kill Bill” fizzling out over time, and maybe a song like “Conceited” or something more cheery and uplifting taking over, especially as people start activating their “new year, new me” moods. It’s OK to sulk in those explosive emotions — but remember your worth!!!
Jason Lipshutz: I was initially surprised that “Kill Bill” became the breakout hit of SOS when songs like “Nobody Gets Me” and “F2F” sounded more immediate, but its lyrics — especially that stinging final line “Rather be in hell than alone” — linger in your brain, begging to be hoisted up, replayed and presented in TikTok clips. “Kill Bill” is going to be one of the defining hits of the first quarter of 2023, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it became SZA’s first career Hot 100-topper in the next few weeks.
Heran Mamo: It’s a mix of the pop culture reference to the Kill Bill movies as well as her deliciously vengeful and emotionally impactful songwriting. Even when I heard “Kill Bill” in an early studio session while writing the SZA cover story, the lyrics “I might kill my ex, not the best idea/ His new girlfriend’s next, how’d I get here?” and “You was at the farmer’s market with your perfect peach” immediately stood out to me as proof SZA had stepped up her pen game. Additionally, I think the Kill Bill inspo fueled anticipation for the upcoming music video, which SZA herself wrote under the official teaser “It’s what y’all deserve.” Hopefully, after all the Christmas songs gradually come off the Hot 100 in the coming weeks, we’ll see “Kill Bill” return to the chart’s top 10.
Kristin Robinson: In a track list this long, it certainly helps that it comes early in the album, but the melody of “Kill Bill” is was really makes it irresistible. It’s always stuck in my head. I think it’s a perfect hit to represent SZA’s career. The title is an allusion to a film, which falls in line with her relatable girl-next-door persona and is reminiscent of Ctrl hit “Drew Barrymore,” which alludes to the film actress. Overall, the lyrics are also just melodramatic fun.
Andrew Unterberger: Don’t have a great answer here yet — the song hasn’t grabbed me the way some others have so far, though it’s starting to win me over — but obviously the chorus is both striking and catchy enough that it was bound to make a rather wide impression fairly quickly. And based on its continually staggering streaming numbers, it’s not going away anytime soon; if and when radio decides to embrace it in a similar fashion, it may contend for No. 1 on the Hot 100 sooner than later.
4. Though SOS comes a full half-decade after SZA’s beloved debut Ctrl, after years of much-discussed delays and false starts and label disputes, the set’s early performance suggests the layover period might’ve had a positive effect on her career momentum if anything. What’s something you think she’s done well or smartly over the past five years to really set the stage for SOS‘ huge bow?
Cydney Lee: Something SZA’s done well is that she didn’t completely disappear in between albums. She dropped singles here and there, was semi-active on social media, teased new songs, etc. — and even closer to SOS, the rollout and press she did was great considering her resistance to it sometimes. Also, no one really knew what the theme/concept of the follow-up would be until she started rolling it out. I think that added level of mystery over what direction she would go in upon returning added to the fans’ eagerness to see what was coming next.
Jason Lipshutz: One could point to SZA’s collaborations with A-listers like Kendrick Lamar, Justin Timberlake and Doja Cat as flash points that kept her in the public consciousness; the solo tracks that she released in the two years prior to SOS, including “Good Days” and “I Hate U,” also whet R&B fans’ appetites for the Ctrl follow-up. But really, both of SZA’s albums are so bulletproof that she could have vanished in the half-decade between them and still found a sizable audience for both. The commercial performance of SOS didn’t rely upon the new fans gained from her pop collaborations or one-off singles, but represented an amalgamation of all of the excitement around her artistry, as a singular voice in modern music.
Heran Mamo: She expertly promoted the first slew of singles (e.g., “Good Days,” “I Hate U” and “Shirt”) by teasing them at the tail-end of music videos, thus building anticipation for months, even years, before they’re officially released. And in the age of TikTok, SZA could just sit back, relax and watch her songs blow up before they were even out by going to TikTok and seeing how fans were ravenously consuming those snippets. “They told us what they wanted,” said Carolyn Williams, executive vp of RCA, in SZA’s aforementioned cover story about their single release strategy – and it totally paid off for Team SZA.
Kristin Robinson: In her break between albums, SZA smartly asserted that she was not just the cool artist who made the critically-lauded Ctrl, but she could also top charts. It’s a hard line to walk, trying to get more mainstream popularity but maintaining her core fans, but collaborating on songs like “Kiss Me More” proved to radio programmers and to the general public that she was capable of top 40-level adoration. Now, the sky’s the limit for the breakout hits from SOS (yes, I anticipate more than just “Kill Bill” will blow up in the coming months).
Andrew Unterberger: Certainly helps that she just kept getting better over that period. The three advance singles for SOS — “Good Days,” “I Hate U” and “Shirt,” released between 2020 and 2022 — are simply three of her best songs yet, pushing her into new sonic territory while also confirming and building on past strengths. And the fact that all three show up towards the end of SOS as near afterthoughts show just how strong her songcraft is across the board right now.
5. Now that SZA’s sophomore set is finally out in the world, which artist do you think currently holds the status of being the R&B star with the most-anticipated long-awaited new album?
Cydney Lee: Frank Ocean. I’d even say Daniel Caesar too, but he teased his return recently, so a project from him might already be coming sooner than we think.
Jason Lipshutz: Don’t look now, but the wait between D’Angelo’s 2014 opus Black Messiah and his next album is now more than half as long as the wait was between 2000’s Voodoo and Black Messiah, which was more of the most infamous long-gestating albums ever released. No clue on when (or if) a new D’Angelo project will actually surface, but here’s hoping that we won’t have to wait another six years to hear it.
Heran Mamo: Kelela. The “When the world needed her most… she vanished” jokes (as inspired by Avatar: The Last Airbender) certainly didn’t write themselves on Twitter. Like SZA, she’s also gone five years without dropping a full-length album and her fans have been desperately waiting for one. Lucky for them, her sophomore album Raven will arrive on February 10, and I’ve already chatted with her about the details if anyone wants to read the full interview here.
Kristin Robinson: I’d like to see something new from Daniel Caesar. I enjoyed 2019’s CASE STUDY 01, even though it fell short of the popularity of 2017’s Freudian, and I’m hoping to hear more from him this year. Similarly to SZA’s success as a featured artist on “Kiss Me More,” Caesar topped charts with his feature on “Peaches” by Justin Bieber last year. I wonder if that radio hit could open Caesar up to a bigger, more mainstream audience when he opts to drop his third album.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s probably Frank Ocean, but let’s not forget about Janelle Monáe, who released arguably her best-received album to date in 2018’s ambitious Dirty Computer, and has only seen her multi-platform star grow in the years since — most recently with her lead turn in Netflix’s blockbuster Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Monáe has yet to post true superstar numbers with a new album, but the next time around, it might be more surprising if she didn’t see those kinds of commercial returns. (Of course, whether it’ll be with a truly R&B-based album or some kind of indie-funk space-rock opera remains to be seen.)
December can be a tough month for any big artist to get attention for their new release, let alone for a producer still best known for his behind-the-scenes work. But that doesn’t appear to be a problem for Metro Boomin, who scores his second No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart this week (following Savage Mode II, his 2020 teamup with 21 Savage) with his star-studded Heroes & Villains set.
The new LP, which features appearances from hitmakers like Savage, Travis Scott, The Weeknd, Future and Young Thug and even boasts narration from Oscar winner Morgan Freeman, moves 185,000 equivalent album units in its first week, a tremendous number for a producer-led set. It also scores Billboard Hot 100 debuts for each of its 15 tracks, including two top 10 debuts, with the Weeknd- and 21 Savage-featuring “Creepin’” (a remake of Mario Winans’ 2004 smash “I Don’t Wanna Know”) at No. 5 and the Future- and Chris Brown-assisted “Superhero (Heroes and Villains)” at No. 8.
How did Metro score such a big debut for his new set? And will “Creepin’” be a breakout hit to carries over well into 2023? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Obviously an album with a guest list the size of Heroes & Villains‘ is going to get attention, but 185k is a pretty staggering first-week number for any producer-led set. Does it speak more to you to the featured names involved, or to Metro Boomin’s reputation as a producer and album artist?
Eric Renner Brown: For listeners who aren’t immersed in music media – so, the bulk of who propelled this album’s first-week success – here’s how I imagine this went down: Devoted fans of one of Heroes & Villains‘ featured artists saw the artist they like had a new track out, followed the streaming service hyperlink to the album, inevitably saw a bunch of other artists they liked, and decided to press play. Metro Boomin’s name probably helped – years of hearing his name on your favorite songs engenders some trust – but I’m picturing many of this album’s listeners already being sold on listening to it, based on the A-list MCs involved.
But! Coming at the question another way, Metro Boomin’s reputation as a producer and album artist were key to the impressive first-week numbers: his reputation helped him land all these big names in the first place, and those names drove the album’s success.
Carl Lamarre: Nayvadius Cash said it best: If Young Metro don’t trust you… but seriously, I think Metro has blossomed into a perennial go-to producer because of his out-of-the-box concoctions. He doesn’t simply copy and paste gaudy features onto a tracklist – he’s a mastermind who skillfully maps out his records from start to finish. That and a genius rollout anchored by his Hollywood BFF Morgan Freeman draws intrigue every time. This blockbuster win is a deserved one for Metro and Co.
Elias Leight: Metro Boomin has always benefitted from star-studded guest lists. Not All Heroes Wear Capes had 11 featured acts, from Drake to Travis Scott; Heroes & Villains added two more to the party. But the producer’s collaborative albums have also seen steady commercial growth. After Not All Heroes Wear Capes debuted at No. 1 behind 99,000 album-equivalent units in 2018, his 21 Savage team-up Savage Mode II repeated at the top of the chart with 171,000 units in 2020. With these numbers in mind, 185,000 units and another Number One for Not All Heroes doesn’t feel surprising.
Neena Rouhani: Star power doesn’t always equal chart-topping success. The performance of the album speaks to both longstanding chemistry and organic marketing. Throughout the last seven-plus years, Metro has released a handful of home-run projects alongside some of the featured acts, like Future’s DS2 and 21’s Savage Mode. We all know what to expect when these guys come together, and it’s top-tier. Which leads me to my second point: it’s a damn good album. The days following its release, I saw a considerable number of people in my circle posting about how great it is, adding screenshots of different tracks to their stories, which will make someone go check it out for themselves. That natural hype matters, and is less concentrated considering the influx of new music every day.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s more about Metro Boomin, actually. We’ve seen plenty of producer-led sets from big names like Mustard and Mike Will Made-It debut with respectable, but hardly blockbuster numbers, and they’re usually just as star-packed as Heroes & Villains. Hell, even DJ Khaled’s latest, God Did — which boasts full dozens of the biggest names in the business — only did 107,500 units in its first week earlier this year. Metro has built a rep for both a high degree of quality control and full-album cohesion with efforts released under his name, and I think that matters more than the guest list for getting listeners to play the whole LP front to back, rather than just the 2-3 songs with their favs as features.
2. Metro Boomin has taken to promoting his full-length releases like movies, with accompanying trailers and shorts, a guest list that plays like a cast of characters and even narration from acting great Morgan Freeman. Have the numbers for this set (and 2020’s Savage Mode II) proven this an effective and/or replicable release strategy, or do you think it’s mostly incidental to their success?
Eric Renner Brown: I think this strategy was incidental to H&V‘s success, mostly because I don’t think it was a sales strategy in the first place. For decades, musicians have used concept albums, however vague or focused, as clearinghouses for their cinematic impulses. And as superhero flicks have become the center of gravity for American moviegoers – sorry, filmheads – it tracks for me that musicians would want to mimic some of their hallmarks: stuffed casts, grandiose themes, and yes, hype-driven rollouts. (The name of this specific project really drives this point home.)
But I think the impetus behind that is more about prestige than business, especially for a producer like Metro Boomin, who has more in common with a Hollywood director wrangling stars and a creative vision than a single rapper might. It’s about how Metro sees himself: an auteur helming rap’s equivalent of a Marvel movie. (In this analogy, maybe DJ Khaled is rap’s DC, churning out projects that underwhelm despite their beloved IP and huge stars.) I’m sure some Metro diehards enjoyed this rollout, so I wouldn’t say it was ineffective – I just wouldn’t credit much of the album’s eventual success to it.
Carl Lamarre: While great music trumps any and everything, it’s the storyline that is the measuring stick in today’s climate. Metro is already elusive when speaking to media, so the most we’ll get from him besides that one publication cover look is through his trailers and social media posts. Despite being press-shy, he’s a true gunslinger with storytelling, and building up anticipation for that thrill ride we always yearn for.
Elias Leight: While Morgan Freeman’s narration is an amusingly over-the-top touch, it’s likely that most hip-hop fans would press play on this album simply for all the big names. It also helps that there’s a dearth of new releases this time of year as everyone succumbs to the tyranny of holiday playlists.
Neena Rouhani: I’d say it’s both, but it doesn’t boil down to narrators or characters. I think people appreciate a tight, cohesive set with a distinguishable throughline, rather than a bunch of songs the producer hopes will hit the radio or go viral smacked together haphazardly. With that being said, Metro has a stellar reputation as a producer. Even without the theatrics, the project would’ve still done well for its first week — but the staying power may have faltered.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it matters, especially for artists like Metro Boomin who have proven that their albums do play in a legitimately cinematic fashion. Excitement over the album trailer was certainly how the set first made my radar online, and I’m sure far from the only one whose curiosity was stoked by it. I don’t know how replicable it is for other artists, but I generally think anything that makes your album feel like a fully immersive experience and not just a compilation of tracks is only ever going to help your overall numbers.
3. “Creepin’,” with The Weeknd and 21 Savage — which is essentially a cover of Mario Winans’ ’00s hit “I Don’t Wanna Know” — has shot out to the early lead among the album’s tracks in our chart metrics, debuting at No. 5 on the Hot 100 and ranking as the highest-charting non-holiday release this week. Does it feel like a hit that’ll last well into 2023 to you, or is it a one-week or one-month wonder mostly owing to the star power of its creators and novelty of its source?
Eric Renner Brown: I doubt “Creepin’” will stick around. The dearth of new releases in December makes it an easier playing field to score a minor hit, especially for stars as established as The Weeknd and 21 Savage. And the novelty of the source material probably helped too: “Hey, [insert friend or loved one’s name here], did you hear this new Weeknd and 21 Savage song that redoes Mario Winans? You should check it out!” Then again, this would’ve be the first time I’ve severely underestimated the staying power of a Weeknd single.
Carl Lamarre: The latter. It’s a great song and a replay-worthy record, but the thrill will dissipate after a few weeks. I say that only because we’re dealing with limited attention spans. The record can be a top 20 – top 30 player after a few weeks, but I can’t foresee “Creepin” peaking higher than its debut position, especially if artists begin aggressively attacking that first quarter à la Gunna and Weeknd last year.
Elias Leight: Radio especially is obsessed with songs like this — what amounts to oldies karaoke disguised as a new single — because it allows them to play something that’s already familiar to their audience. Expect this one to get a lot of spins once radio shakes off Christmas-malaise in the new year.
Neena Rouhani: I love that song, I think it was a great flip and a standout moment on the album. But whether or not it endures I think has a lot to do with social media and how it performs on apps like TikTok. If a massive trend takes hold of it, the rest is written. If not, I could see the song fading into the background.
Andrew Unterberger: I dunno if the song will ever reach higher than No. 5 on the Hot 100 — though it’s pretty telling that it would’ve hit No. 1 if not for the holiday rush — but I don’t see it just fading away, either; everything about the past two years in pop music tells us that the novelty of hits borrowing from other hits does not wear off as quickly as we may have once thought. (And this one is both more novel and better executed than most, I’d say.)
4. Though we’ve talked a great deal about samples and interpolations in Five Burning Questions this year, discussion of covers — or perhaps “remakes,” since technically “Creepin’” has both a different title and different rap verse than Winans’ and Diddy’s original — has been relatively scarce. Does the early success of “Creepin’” demonstrate that maybe there’s something more or different to be gained by not just borrowing from large swaths of an established hit song, but actually redoing the whole thing?
Eric Renner Brown: “Creepin’” doesn’t feel too far from Drake and Future’s “Way 2 Sexy” from last year or Nicki Minaj’s “Super Freaky Girl” from August, which sampled massive, nostalgic hits in ways such prominent ways that they were key drivers to the success of those singles. Whatever nomenclature you want to use for “Super Freaky Girl,” anyone of a certain age who listens to it will go, “Oh, yeah, Nicki’s Rick James song!” Which is sort of the point, right?
Now, for an unorthodox comparison, I’m going to liken Metro Boomin to Phish, a band that despite having a deep arsenal of its own material, routinely covered a spectrum of artists it revered, new and old, and used covers to excite audiences – and hint at their creative inspirations and philosophies. Covers can be fun ways to engage and connect with listeners, and if songs like “Creepin’” demonstrate that they’re good for business, too, I bet we’ll see more in the months and years ahead.
Carl Lamarre: I appreciate the educational value that it entails. I remember seeing an Instagram post highlighting the samples and origins beyond Mario Winans’s “I Don’t Wanna Know” — which itself initially sampled the riffs from Enya’s song “Boadicea” and the beat from another ’80s gem in EPMD’s “You’re a Customer.” So for music geeks, it’s cool to do some digging, re-appreciate the story of certain songs and pay homage to the journey there.
Elias Leight: I don’t see all that much difference between “Creepin’” and some of the wildly obvious lifts that have powered other hits this year — the in-your-face nod to Rick Astley on Yung Gravy’s “Betty (Get Money)” or Eiffel 65 on David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue).” Building new hits from the bones of old hits has been common since at least the Bad Boy era (which of course spawned Mario Winans’ “I Don’t Wanna Know”). At a time when commercial success seems harder to predict than ever, more and more artists and producers appear to be leaning on this strategy.
Neena Rouhani: The verses and chorus (a.k.a. the most important parts) were entirely pulled from Mario Winans, not to mention that iconic drum pattern. They added to it in a way that felt fresh enough to keep those of us who knew the original interested, while keeping the parts that they knew would hook less-familiar listeners. But I don’t think we should make a habit of this. At that point, it’s going to feel like a bunch of covers rather than a sound expanding and evolving. The way we sample and interpolate has definitely become more overt and we’re using songs from less than 20 years ago. I think that could get old quick.
Andrew Unterberger: The thought behind it is the same as any number of secondhand hits of recent years, but I do think there’s some sort of head-smackingly obvious revelation at play here: If you’re going to take so much of an older song that it basically feels like a cover anyway, why not just make it a (relatively) straight cover? There might be publishing reasons for that, of course, but I doubt any of the three artists involved really are hurting financially enough to squabble much over percentages for this one, and in the meantime they may get the easiest smash of their collective careers out of it.
5. Releasing a big-budget and/or long-anticipated album once the holiday season has already begun to hit: Good idea or bad idea?
Eric Renner Brown: Good idea! For the music media, Thanksgiving heralds a period of reflection – and year-end list season. For the rest of the world, December is just another month – and one where many people have more time off to listen to new music than at any other time of the year. To bring it back to Hollywood blockbusters: There’s a reason so many big movies drop during the holiday season or even on Christmas itself. That said, Metro’s album probably won’t make for quite as good a stocking stuffer for moms as Adele’s 25 did a few years ago.
Carl Lamarre: Bad idea. Let’s put aside the music heavyweights and think about medium-sized artists. Chances are, you’ll probably get snowed in by all of the Christmas releases and have zero chance to make any noise on the Hot 100 until the new year. My suggestion has always been to punch in the clock and start fresh in early January when everything is quiet, and the run for supremacy is on the table. It worked for Gunna last year, who had the best run of his career. Encanto and Olivia Rodrigo recently enjoyed huge wins and launched their shots around the first quarter. I would pack everything in and wait for Jan-Feb to go crazy.
Elias Leight: If your goal is to get a No. 1 album, this is a good time to release music — competition is slim. If you want a No. 1 single, December is ice cold: “Creepin” is stuck behind “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree,” “Jingle Bell Rock,” and “A Holly Jolly Christmas” for at least two more weeks. Last year, the reign of “All I Want for Christmas Is You” lasted into January before contemporary music regained control of the top of the Hot 100 in the form of Adele’s “Easy on Me.” If “Creepin’” can stick around into the new year, it will have to compete with already proven hits that have managed to withstand the holiday onslaught — Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” Sam Smith and Kim Petras’ “Unholy” — as well as new singles from SZA, especially “Kill Bill,” which is already putting up impressive streaming numbers.
Neena Rouhani: Good idea because fewer artists are releasing new sets, so more attention on you; bad idea because we all know this is really Mariah’s time to shine.
Andrew Unterberger: Good idea, unless you really value your appearances on year-end lists.
There’s no place like the Billboard charts for the holiday music season, and as always, our Holiday 100 is back and keeping track of the biggest seasonal hits of each week through the New Year.
This year, it’s once again the usual suspects looking to steal the Christmas No. 1 — Mariah Carey‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is on top this week (chart dated Dec. 10), followed by Brenda Lee‘s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Bobby Helms‘ “Jingle Bell Rock.” They’re also the three highest of the six holiday songs in the top 10 of this week’s Billboard Hot 100, though none of them have yet captured pole position, which still belongs to Taylor Swift’s secular smash “Anti-Hero.”
When, if at all, will one of the holiday perennials take over on the Hot 100? And why do newer songs never seem to be able to grow in momentum on the chart? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. As it always does this time of year, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is knocking on the door of the Hot 100’s top spot, moving from No. 5 to No. 2 on the chart this week. But it has a formidable hit blocking its path this time, with Taylor Swift’s six-week No. 1, “Anti-Hero.” Do you think it will depose “Anti-Hero” next week? If not, how long do you think it will take — if it does so at all?
Katie Atkinson: Oh, it’s going back to No. 1, dahling, and I think next week is the week. The current tracking period is the first full week of December, and Christmas music listeners have made the full transition. Time to get out the garland and ornaments for the Hot 100, because its most treasured Christmas star is about to be placed back on top.
Jason Lipshutz: Yeah, next week feels like the week — and that’s an unscientific read on the situation, but the “Anti-Hero”/“All I Want for Christmas Is You” battle reminds me of last year’s showdown between Mariah Carey’s holiday juggernaut and Adele’s multi-week chart-topper “Easy on Me.” “Christmas” took a few weeks into December to dislodge “Easy” during its run, and I’d surmise that it will do the same to “Anti-Hero” starting next week.
Glenn Rowley: “Anti-Hero” might be able to hold onto the crown for one more week but judging by her song’s massive gains this week, it’s clear Mariah just wants the No. 1 for her own (again). And as Christmas gets closer, the festive fervor will only go from high-pitched to full-blown whistle tone. Though I admit there’s an alternate reality in my daydreaming where Taylor’s Midnights smash holds off “ All I Want for Christmas Is You” by becoming the definitive anthem to soundtrack a Newsies-style antitrust revolution by the Swifties, a la “Seize the Day.”
Andrew Unterberger: Mariah Carey is certainly looming, but I wouldn’t count out some last-minute sales/discounts/remixes emerging from Swift late in the week to help get her the edge she needs here. She’s done it successfully a couple times during the “Anti-Hero” run already, and she’s likely extra motivated this week, as the song is just one week away from tying “Blank Space” as her longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 to date. Once Mariah grabs the top spot, it might be close to a month before she gives it back — and who knows what else will emerge as competition in the meantime — so Swift is gonna want every week she can get for “Anti-Hero” before then. But within 2-3 weeks, it’ll be out of her hands, and Carey’s reign will commence regardless.
Christine Werthman: Swift’s hit has staying power, but Carey’s is coming like a freight train — or perhaps the Polar Express. “Anti-Hero” has been the No. 1 for the last six weeks, but it is dropping in streams, while “Christmas” is on the rise. In fact, Carey’s juggernaut is currently the most-streamed song in the U.S., and as the days tick by to Dec. 25, Carey’s smash will continue to climb, bludgeoning all that stand in its way with a stocking full of holiday cheer. It will be No. 1 soon enough.
2. While Mariah leads on the Holiday 100, the usual challengers appear just below her in Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Bobby Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock.” If you had to bet on this top three either being the same for each of the next five holiday seasons, or being disrupted at some point — either by an order switch or a different song — which way would you wager?
Katie Atkinson: I’ve always wanted “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” to score even one week at No. 1 on the Hot 100, where it’s so far peaked at No. 2, but Mariah’s merry monster is a hard one to overcome. Lee recorded the song at just 13 years old and is a spry 77 today, and it would be so sweet for her to get her poinsettias while she’s still with us. But as a betting woman, I think that top three will remain in the same order for the next five yuletide seasons.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d guess that some time in the next half-decade, one of the two golden oldies (more likely “Jingle Bell Rock”) gets swapped out with something more recent, while the others persist as part of the big three. That’s not to say that either one will fall off entirely, but betting on “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and “Jingle Bell Rock” to stay this locked into the big three, when there’s so much competition for those spots, seems improbable. Of course, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” isn’t going anywhere — that’s going to remain one of the three highest-charting holiday songs each year for the next decade, if not just stay at No. 1 that whole time.
Glenn Rowley: The short answer is a holly jolly nope. At this point, the Holiday 100 feels a bit more like Groundhog’s Day than anything else, and the longer these three tracks dominate the season, the more entrenched they seem to become.
Andrew Unterberger: Betting on stasis with the Holiday 100 is usually the smart play, so I’ll say yes, that’s the top three for the next half-decade. That said, you never know what can pop from out of nowhere these days — and even if a new song isn’t yet powerful enough to run with the big reindeer on an annual basis, it can post a big-enough debut to at least elbow its way in with them temporarily, like Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” did last decade.
Christine Werthman: Carey will remain No. 1 for the next five holiday seasons. Looking back on this week from 2017 until now, Brenda Lee held the No. 2 spot five out of six times, bumped to No. 3 only once by Andy Williams in 2018. Bobby Helms could be the wild card, as he was absent from the top three in 2018 and 2019. I’d bet that Carey and Lee will hold fast but that the third spot will be up for grabs for a new old song over the next few years.
3. Though Mariah’s Christmas classic will be celebrating its 30th birthday in a couple years, there are still only three songs newer than it in the top 40 of this week’s Holiday 100 – Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” (#10), Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (#14) and Justin Bieber’s “Mistletoe” (#40). Why do you think it remains so hard for newer songs — even “newer” songs that are now a decade or two old themselves — to break into the Christmas canon? Do you see it getting easier anytime in the near or even distant future?
Katie Atkinson: There are a lot of people who assume “All I Want” is a Christmas standard, the way it recalls Phil Spector’s 1960s hits for The Ronettes or Darlene Love, and I think that classic sound is what people are yearning for in their holiday listening. The next-closest new song, “Underneath the Tree,” plays the exact same card. So while a few contemporary Christmas songs will break through here and there (*NSYNC’s “Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays” comes to mind as one that burned bright and then fizzled out with the boy-band era), the ones that have longevity are the ones that bring the most Noel nostalgia.
Jason Lipshutz: The magic of holiday songs is in their familiarity — the way we trot them out for a few weeks each year, recognize the time-honored melodies and associate them with a special season. Understandably, that canon is difficult to change, or even increase with new material. There’s no doubt that some new holiday songs will eventually earn that nostalgic glow as more years pass — “Underneath the Tree” feels like a likely candidate to keep growing each year — but the process is slow for a reason, and I doubt it’s one that radically evolves in the coming years.
Glenn Rowley: It’s crazy to think that all three of those “newer” songs are 8-10 years old at this point. I mean, Kelly’s even given us a second (stellar!) Christmas album since she released “Underneath the Tree.” Much like a too-rich cup of cocoa, the biggest obstacle to storming the modern Christmas songbook could be over-saturation. Because from the moment Mariah declares, ‘It’s time,’ there’s a limited number of days to cram in all the holiday music you can handle. And would you rather go for something cozy and familiar or something new?
Andrew Unterberger: My working theory with this is that music fans don’t really ever seek out their own holiday music when they’re young — it’s just something that’s passively in their background of their lives for 1-2 months a year, with selections usually made by folks decades their senior. So everyone just grows up with their parents’ holiday music, and they never really even think twice about it — and when, decades later, it’s their own turn to decide what holiday music is going to get played, that’s still what they sentimentally default to. It takes a truly extraordinary new Christmas song to be as satisfying as that type of nostalgia, and that’s why you only get a handful a decade that prove to have any real staying power.
Christine Werthman: Christmas is a season for nostalgia. It’s not like Halloween, where costumes fluctuate depending on the hottest movie or meme of the moment. In fact, if Christmas were a Halloween costume, it would be a ghost — every single year. Familiarity is key for Christmas success, and I suspect the old guard will be holding down the prime slots on the Holiday 100 for many years to come.
4. We often talk about the possibility of newer songs rising on the Holiday 100, but in truth, it seems like older songs have as good a chance of catching a second wind — particularly in 2022, when new hits can come from any time. Is there a song on this week’s chart from earlier than Mariah Carey’s “Christmas” that you might be looking at as a contender to rise in the holiday rankings in the years to come?
Katie Atkinson: Jose Feliciano’s “Feliz Navidad” peaked at No. 3 on the Holiday 100 back in 2012, but it hasn’t cracked that top three in a while. I think it should rightfully work its way back up, just as Bad Bunny is also bringing Spanish-language hits to the top of our charts. I also think one of my personal favorites, The Ronettes’ “Sleigh Ride,” should finally crack the Holiday 100 top five for the first time (it’s so far peaked at No. 8) because it’s just so fun and festive. Climb aboard the sleigh, people!
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe Wham!’s “Last Christmas” never grows to chart-dominating stature, but I could see that song getting bigger each year, as a holiday song that’s fiercely loved and also ripe for some sort of viral revival. As the years wear on, I could see “Last Christmas” usurping “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” or “Jingle Bell Rock” as one of the three biggest holiday songs of the year, and creating a sort of balance in the sound and thematic scope of the primary holiday trio.
Glenn Rowley: I’m always a proponent of Wham!’s “Last Christmas” getting a second or third (or, you know, thirty-eighth) wind during the month of December. Last year, it reached a new peak of No. 7 on the Hot 100 and this week it’s already sitting at No. 6 on the Holiday tally. Maybe the right sync or TikTok trend can push it even higher in Christmases to come.
Andrew Unterberger: Gonna go with “Linus and Lucy.” It’s maybe not the radio-friendliest of the Holiday perennials, with its lack of lyrics and jarring mid-song shifts in tempo and melody, but it’s beloved by every new generation since A Charlie Brown Christmas‘ 1965 debut, and its association with that classic holiday special gives it extra meme potential. Also, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s entire soundtrack rises higher on the Billboard 200 albums chart each year — it hit the top 10 for the first time last year — so that momentum might carry over to the Hot 100 before too long.
Christine Werthman: Wham!’s “Last Christmas” is currently No. 6, but it was in the top three around this time in 2019. I’d put my chips on that one to sneak its way up the chart in the future, especially if it gets featured in a holiday movie, a la the “All I Want for Christmas Is You” moment in Love Actually.
5. Let’s say Adele, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Bad Bunny and Drake each released a brand-new solo Christmas song on Friday. Which one do you think would be the biggest front-runner for the Holiday 100 No. 1?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going Adele, 100%. Just like her bombastic vocals were a no-brainer for a James Bond theme song 10 years ago, her warm, rich delivery would be tailor-made for a Christmas classic. I’m thinking something more in the understated, bittersweet vein of Judy Garland’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” or Nat King Cole’s “The Christmas Song” than the poppy Mariah route – though a jingly redo of “Rumour Has It” all about Santa Claus could be cute too.
Jason Lipshutz: Give the edge to Adele here — she’s not as prolific as Bad Bunny or Drake, is more of a reliable Hot 100 chart-topper than Beyoncé, and unlike Taylor Swift, has never released a Christmas song. An Adele Christmas single would be a special release from a chart superstar… who also happens to have the type of overwhelming vocal power that a holiday song typically requires. However it sounds, it would have a great shot at No. 1.
Glenn Rowley: Regardless of the song, there’s no stopping Adele the moment she decides to drop an original holiday tune (an eggnog-fueled follow-up to “I Drink Wine,” perhaps?).
Andrew Unterberger: It’s probably Adele — but don’t count out Bad Bunny’s ability to surprise, or Taylor Swift’s will to win.
Christine Werthman: Adele all the way. She has a timeless voice, she transcends generations, and she would likely make something that is contemporary enough for young listeners but classic enough for an older audience to throw into the rotation of holiday standards. As far as knocking out “All I Want for Christmas Is You” from the top spot, though, I’d still give Mariah 70/30 odds to win the No. 1.
In a year full of hits built around samples and interpolations of past megahits, Bebe Rexha and David Guetta‘s “I’m Good (Blue)” still stands out as unusual.
The collab, which borrows the distinctive synth and chorus melody of Eiffel 65’s turn-of-the-century dance-pop smash “Blue (Da Ba Dee),” wasn’t even supposed to be a proper single: It was a demo that was recorded in the mid-’10s and never officially released, until unexpected TikTok virality led to demand for it to be dropped in full. Once it was, it was embraced by streaming audiences and radio programmers, gradually climbing the Billboard Hot 100 and hitting a new peak of No. 7 this week (chart dated Nov. 26).
Which artist stands to gain most from the song’s unexpected success? And is it the end of the trend or just the beginning? Billboard staffers discuss below.
1. “I’m Good” is a 2015-recorded song interpolating a 2000 pop hit with tonight’s-gonna-be-a-good-night lyrics that sound like 2009 that got big after being shared on TikTok in 2022. Does the math add up to you for this one, or are you still having trouble wrapping your head around it?
Katie Atkinson: The math is still not mathing, but it doesn’t need to. The fact is, there have been stranger trajectories to a top 10 Hot 100 hit in 2022 than this one, so I’m just not going to overthink it and just keep dancing. As Bebe told our very own Billboard Pop Shop Podcast (shameless plug), “Let’s just give the people what they want. Let’s not judge it for what it is, and just put it out. It’s just a great, fun record.” Preach.
Katie Bain: There’s been a tidal wave of early 2000s samples/interpolations in dance music in the last year, with Acraze’s 2021 Cherish’-sampling smash “Do It To It” more or less sparking the trend. All of these songs together demonstrate a huge affection for that era and thus also an easy way for producers from across all electronic genres to score relatively easy hits. Guetta has never been afraid to trend-hop or to capitalize, and this one, like so many of his previous monster songs, demonstrates his truly singular ability to craft an earworm — or at least to expand on an already existent earworm. So yes, on paper all the elements add up to this song’s success, although at the same time it still kind of sounds like an algorithm at work.
Jason Lipshutz: Consider “I’m Good” the 2022 version of Måneskin’s “Beggin’,” which became a global smash in 2021… as a cover of a 1967 Four Seasons song… that was originally performed and recorded in 2017. These instances of older singles with funky backstories and recognizable hooks being revived years later, thanks in large part to TikTok, will keep occurring and impacting the Billboard charts in the years to come. As for “I’m Good,” one listen to it (especially if you’re a “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” defender) and it’s easy to wrap your head around why it’s a hit.
Joe Lynch: I think the math adds up in that, not dissimilar to an obscurity such as Edison Lighthouse’s “Love Grows (Where My Rosemary Goes)” having a TikTok moment, Gen Z and the TikTok landscape aren’t interested in what’s now or next these days. With the history of recorded music at their fingertips, any catchy melody they haven’t heard before can become the now or next thing. It doesn’t matter if it’s retro. It might even be a boon.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, I can buy the part about the song existing as an unreleased demo for five years before randomly taking off on TikTok a lot more easily than I can believe that a song that sounds like this — post-peak EDM beats with Black Eyed Peas-type lyrics — is tapping into the 2022 zeitgeist. There hasn’t been a song with this specific sound that’s popped on radio or streaming in a long while, though not quite long enough that I’d imagine folks are already nostalgic for it. It’s a curiously timed success to me.
2. Guetta and Rexha are two of the more indefatigable hitmakers of the last decade-plus, but neither had reached the top 40 in the past four years before this. Which of the two artists does this return to the pop mainstream mean more to, career-wise?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to say Bebe, because I feel like she’s really been the face of this whole thing. We all knew Guetta could make a reliable dance-floor filler, but maybe we’d assumed the time was up for that style on top 40 radio and outside the club. For Bebe, however, the hurdle she’s consistently trying to clear is being a potentially anonymous part of a massive hit song; everyone’s heard a Bebe Rexha song, whether they’ve sought her out or not, but not everyone knows her name or could pick her out of a lineup. This is one more way to introduce herself beyond being a disembodied voice on your radio — like the showcase she got as one of only 11 performances on Sunday’s AMAs. But also: How much more does this woman have to do to prove herself?!
Katie Bain: David Guetta will always be David Guetta, in the sense that he’ll be able to headline global dance clubs and festivals in perpetuity given his litany of hits and ability to keep up with any given of-the-moment dance sound. So while I’m sure he’s enjoying this return to the top 40, particularly in the context of it extending his already considerable track record as a hitmaker, I think Rexha needed it more as she doesn’t yet the legacy, particularly in a specific genre, as her counterpart on this song.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably Rexha. “I’m Good” represents a pleasant surprise for Guetta, but he’s going to be able to play the dance festival circuit with his mountain of hits for years to come. Rexha also has her fair share of successful singles, but being a modern pop artist is all about what you’ve done for the general listening audience lately, and it had been a minute since Rexha had made a real connection at streaming or radio. She does both with “I’m Good,” and it’s a meaningful new win in a career that quietly contains a bunch of them.
Joe Lynch: Bebe for sure. Guetta is a dance music elder statesman with enough cache and hits to keep people paying to see his shows. Rexha, on the other hand, really benefits by having a new hit that can bring her new social engagement, awards show slots and the like.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s gotta be Rexha. While Guetta might not quite have the cultural capital stateside he did a decade ago, he’s still a legacy act at this point, and will probably be a good-sized live draw and decent streaming performer for however long the rest of his career lasts. Rexha still lives hit-to-hit a little bit, and she’s never seemed particularly interested in living her pop career from the sidelines, so it’s not surprising that she’s rejoicing in her unlikely “I’m Good” success like she is.
3. While the song first took off on TikTok and streaming, radio is now the primary driver for its success, as it reaches No. 8 on the Radio Songs chart this week. Does it make sense to you as a contemporary radio smash? Why or why not?
Katie Atkinson: I think familiarity is always going to give you a head-start in 2022 — just look at Jack Harlow’s “First Class.” It also has the “what is this?” factor that might keep someone from changing the radio station immediately. So basically, it makes sense as a “contemporary” radio smash insofar as it has a nostalgic WTF factor that is instantly intriguing.
Katie Bain: As dance-pop and mainstream pop have essentially become the same thing in the last 10 years, I’m not surprised at all that a song that heavily samples a yesteryear hit that itself was a huge radio hit has become a radio hit. (Also shout out to Flume’s 2020 “Blue” edit.)
Jason Lipshutz: I mean… “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” reached No. 2 on the Pop Songs chart, when Eiffel 65 was a total unknown entity to U.S. listeners, so why can’t this facelift of the tune climb as high on top 40 radio? “I’m Good” sounds a little out of step with current pop radio trends, and would have functioned perfectly a decade ago, when Guetta was at the height of his hit-making powers; that said, the tune is undeniable, and sometimes that’s enough.
Joe Lynch: It tracks for me. When you listen to one of those weekend late-night top 40 radio party mixes, songs like the Black Eyed Peas “I Gotta Feeling” (which this lyrically harks back to) have been in consistent rotation (alongside newer top 10s) for the better part of the last decade. The music snoberati may want to believe that silly good-time party songs from the Obama Era are dead and gone, but the truth is that they’ve never been far from radio airwaves, or the playlist at a Chili’s near you.
Andrew Unterberger: Contemporary? In 2012, probably. In 2017, maybe. In 2022, not so much.
4. We’ve spent seemingly the whole year talking about big interpolations in major pop songs, but few if any have relied quite as heavily on their original source material as “I’m Good (Blue).” Does this feel to you like it will lead to similarly built hits in 2023, or is this closer to the end of the line for this strain of early-’20s pop hit?
Katie Atkinson: I don’t see this stopping anytime soon. Whenever a potential shortcut to chart success is unlocked (see also: DJ Khaled’s top five hit “Staying Alive,” Nicki Minaj’s No. 1 “Super Freaky Girl”), the floodgates open. I give this another year.
Katie Bain: Like I mentioned above, this trend, particularly in the dance world, has been such a huge success driver that I have a hard time seeing producers setting down until the well of songs to sample goes dry. (And even then, a lot of them have been sampling the same songs, so the amount of source material available isn’t even necessarily a factor.) There’s obviously the familiarity/nostalgia factor of hearing these old songs again, so I don’t necessarily see the trend waning from a consumer perspective either.
Jason Lipshutz: I believe we are just getting started here. Everyone in the music industry is perpetually thirsty for new hits, and especially lately, the route to scoring them is by reviving old ones — from “Super Freaky Girl” reworking “Super Freak,” to “Vegas” resurrecting “Hound Dog,” to “Cold Heart” and “Hold Me Closer” returning to Elton John’s classics catalog for modern pastiches. One could argue that the increasing reliance on IP in Hollywood — old franchises with familiar characters being revived as safer bets than original storytelling — is coming to the music industry in the form of these interpolations. And some of them will be more successful than others, of course, but I’d bet that there are a lot more coming.
Joe Lynch: Only the beginning. In the first half of the 20th century, it was very common for hit songs to be resurrected every 10, 12 years via the next big thing singer covering it; people knew a good melody that landed once would absolutely land again. In the rock era, when artists became fixated on regarding the past as passé and writing their own songs, that became less true. But after a full decade of the streaming era, audiences take it for granted that old isn’t necessarily bad and what’s cutting edge isn’t necessarily fun, so why not listen to a little bit of the best of everything?
Andrew Unterberger: I’m not sure if this is going to lead to even more hits along these lines, but I’m confident it’s going to lead to more artists attempting them. If two artists who hadn’t had a major hit in 4-5 years could go top 10 with a revived demo, clearly it’s gonna seem like a plausible path to success for a lot of other past (and prospective future) hitmakers as well. Just how much patience the general public is going to have for such future attempts remains to be seen — but so far, so good there.
5. Eiffel 65’s “Blue (Da Ba Dee)”: fun, nostalgic novelty or annoying, dated relic?
Katie Atkinson: Annoying, dated relic. My only fondness for “Blue” is due to my fondness for the 1999/2000 era in general. I’ll take Sisqo’s “Thong Song” over it, honestly. As Bebe and David would say: “I’m good.”
Katie Bain: An eternal banger for anyone who doesn’t take themselves too seriously.
Jason Lipshutz: Fun, nostalgic… banger. “Blue (Da Ba Dee)” is just excellent pop inside and out, an expertly constructed dance single built around the silliest of concepts. Thank you for your service, Eiffel 65!
Joe Lynch: First one. It’s just a delightful lark. And it undeniably holds a nostalgic place in my heart given that it was one of the verrrry few Eurodance songs that made radio headway around the turn of the millennium. And believe me, before you had every song at the tip of your fingertips, you enjoyed the scraps of lesser-heralded genres that radio threw at you (that being said, I did buy the parent album on CD in a mall. Classic Y2K). Plus, I remember seeing a kid ice do an ice-skating routine to this song once that was every bit as sublimely silly as Eiffel 65 itself.
Andrew Unterberger: One of the only pop songs of its era I cannot enjoy on any level. Kill it with fire.