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Six months ago, a stadium-concert headliner decided to create tens of thousands of high-end T-shirts and hoodies to “rival any streetwear brand and be able to sell it for less than Sabrina Carpenter or Billie Eilish,” says Billy Candler, CEO/co-founder of Absolute Merch, a 13-year-old company that works with 30 artists. Candler arranged to purchase the shirts from China, then ship them on April 9, two weeks before a new U.S. tour.
But on April 2, President Trump imposed an 84% tariff on Chinese imports. Then, in the next few days, he boosted them to 104%, then 125%, then 145%. With each increase, Candler says, “I almost had a heart attack. It’s just exploded our plan.” As of Saturday (April 12), the company’s freight order has been “literally sitting in Customs waiting to be cleared,” with new tariffs imposed.

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As with industries that manufacture and ship smartphones, aluminum foil, car parts and toasters, artist-merch companies like Absolute are scrambling to predict the Trump administration’s final number on Chinese tariffs and figure out how to transfer production to alternative countries. Ideally, Absolute Merch would simply cancel its China order and restart in the U.S., but the deadline is too tight for the stadium-level act’s upcoming tour and, as Candler says, “You can’t do it in America. We really don’t make fabric here.” It may eventually be possible to shift to Vietnam or elsewhere, but Chinese prices for blank shirts tend to be cheapest, music-merch sources say, and nobody knows whether Trump will reimpose tariffs on other countries in July, after his 90-day respite period.

Even if every company in the $13.4 billion global music-merch business, as MIDiA Research estimated, pulls out of China, demand will spike in other countries, and merch manufacturers will likely raise their prices. “Costs will go up because of capacity shortages once China is not an option,” says Barry Drinkwater, executive chairman of Global Merchandising Services, which works with Iron Maiden, Guns N’ Roses and others.

Will artists and their merch companies pass the additional costs stemming from tariffs to their customers? They may have no choice but to raise prices, Candler says, speculating that hoodies could rise to $150 and T-shirts to $65 if the trade war continues. “I have a client manufacturing a cut-and-sew bomber jacket,” adds Pat Dagle, owner of Terminal Merchandise, which works with 20 artists. “That jacket jumped from a price point of $35 to $80, on our side, because of the tariffs. The cost falls onto us, so it’s negating a lot of our profit.”

“It’s going to affect everybody,” says Kevin Meehan, a 30-year artist-merch manufacturer in Costa Mesa, Calif. “Because 90% of the trims in the world are made in China — your zippers, your buttons, your snaps, your drawcords, your eyelets, all that stuff for apparel.” 

Andy Stensrud, a veteran Nashville music merchandiser who works with Bad Bunny, IU and other Latin and K-pop stars, adds of China: “When it comes to the custom apparel, they are so far ahead of everybody else with turnaround times and pricing. We just made some custom hockey jerseys for a band, and they cranked them out in 10 days. No one can touch that.”

For now, many in music merch are remaining calm as the U.S.-Chinese tariff situation fluctuates. Dov Charney, the American Apparel founder who created Los Angeles Apparel in 2016, stands to benefit from artists and others seeking merch items not made in China. He says most touring artists source T-shirts and other clothing products from Honduras, El Salvador and Central America, which haven’t had to contend with high tariffs. Even China-made products are unlikely to increase by more than $5 or $10 for a T-shirt, he adds, because wholesale shirt costs are low and the high expenses come from things like transportation and design, which are unlikely to change due to tariffs. “OK, boo-hoo,” Charney tells Billboard. “It’s not going to have a profound effect as much as people are saying.”

Brent Rambler, guitarist for hard-rock band August Burns Red, which runs its own merch operation, is avoiding the tariff uncertainty, refusing to “proactively raise our prices” and risk turning off fans in the long term. The band’s T-shirts come from Bangladesh, and while its coffee mugs are made in China, a manufacturing increase of $1.50 to $2 per unit is unlikely to lead to a consumer price bump: “You don’t want to turn people away,” Rambler says. 

Steve Culver, president of Nashville-based merch company Dreamer Media, adds that the tariffs are a political issue likely to be resolved before consumer costs rise too dramatically. “It’s too early to understand how it’s going to play out,” he says. “I’m not panicking.”

For now, tariff stress has spread to all levels of the touring business, which relies on merch, especially artists who can’t make a living on streaming revenues. Reached by phone while driving from St. Louis to Kansas City in a van stuffed with cardboard merch boxes, Evan Thomas Weiss, frontman of Pet Symmetry, says the emo band pays $13 to $15 to print a T-shirt, plus more on transportation and other expenses, then sells it for $30 at a show in order to make a small profit. If tariffs cause production prices to rise by even 20%, a fan could pay as much as $40. 

“I don’t know how anybody’s going to be able to afford that,” he says.

Pet Symmetry was lucky — its latest order of 300 to 400 shirts and other merch items arrived two weeks ago, in time for its current club tour. 

“But if something happens over the summer, and tariffs go into effect, we have to do some real reflection, and decide whether to order more now or wait,” Weiss says. “Which is such a difficult position for a small band to be in.” From the van, guitarist Erik Czaja adds: “If it came to it, one of us would learn how to screen-print.”

Chris Eggertsen contributed to this report.