Chart Beat

One of the fastest-rising artists of the 2020s takes another step up the ladder this week, as Chappell Roan hits new highs on both the Billboard 200 albums chart and the Billboard Hot 100.

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Thanks to a summer-long crescendoing of public interest (and less clutter this week from big album debuts), Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess albums climbs 8-4 on the Billboard 200 dated Aug. 10. Meanwhile “Good Luck, Babe!” ascends 10-8 on the Hot 100 — highest of her six separate entries on the chart this week, with all except the newer “Babe” hailing from Midwest Princess.

Which of the two charts is Roan likely to top first? And what impact will the tremendous success she’s enjoying have on the larger music industry? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess jumps four spots to a new high of No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, reaching the peak in its 19th week on the chart, while “Good Luck, Babe!” climbs 10-8 this week to also hit a new peak on the Hot 100. If you had to bet on one of them to reach No. 1 on their respective charts, which would it be? 

Christopher Claxton: If I had to bet on one of them reaching No. 1 on their respective charts, I would choose “Good Luck, Babe!” Singles often have an easier upward trajectory on the charts because they stand alone. Often times a single is its own story allowing it to capture the audience attention in a shorter time frame and then generate sales and streams. On the other hand, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a combination of 14 tracks, so its chart performance depends on the reception of all the songs. This makes its rise potentially slower as multiple factors contribute to its overall success.

Kyle Denis: This is hard – especially because a No. 1 on both charts (perhaps the same week?) is definitely not out of the question! If I had to bet on one of them, I would put my money on Midwest Princess topping the Billboard 200. It’s one of the few albums in recent memory that’s genuinely being consumed as a unit versus individual songs. The singles chart also feels more competitive right now; the chart’s top ten has been relatively stagnant in recent weeks. Nonetheless, should a “Good Luck, Babe!” music video arrive soon, all bets are off.

Lyndsey Havens: I think “Good Luck, Babe!” is well on its way to a becoming a Hot 100 chart topper. As evidenced by the gradual climb of both the hit and its respective album, Chappell manages to grow more and more powerful with each passing week. And on the heels of her epic Lollapalooza performance in Chicago this past weekend – where she garnered the biggest crowd to date across the fest’s global franchise – I would expect to see “Babe” jump into the chart’s top 5, at least. And as we should all know by now, it’s only up from there, as it seems Chappell has all the luck she needs.

Andrew Unterberger: We’re getting to the point where it feels like she could make the jump on either chart with a single lever pull — either a music video or official remix for “Babe” or a deluxe reissue of Princess would likely do the respective tricks. (A deluxe Princess reissue featuring a new remix of “Babe” could possibly even accomplish the double whammy.) But assuming she doesn’t do any of that, I’d probably vote for “Babe,” just because it’s still massive on streaming and growing on radio, and every new bump in momentum she gets — a gigantic festival set here, a political endorsement there — seems to hoist it higher. But it very well might end up being a photo finish between the two.

Christine Werthman: I’m going with “Good Luck, Babe!” going to No. 1 on the Hot 100. I’ve heard it on the radio multiple times a day, in coffee shops, at rest stops — the song is everywhere. I know the album has a shorter climb to the top, but I’m skeptical that it would dethrone Taylor.

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2. While “Babe” remains her lone top 10 hit, the Hot 100 is increasingly overrun with Roan songs the past couple months — also including “Hot to Go!” (No. 26), “Pink Pony Club” (No. 42), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 52), “Casual” (No. 76) and “Femininomenon” (No. 86) — most of which are still rising on streaming and/or radio. If you had to bet on one of those songs eventually joining “Babe” in the top 10, which would it be?

Christopher Claxton: I would have to say “Hot to Go!” — it’s my favorite out of the bunch. The song has a catchy melody that’s infectious and lyrics that are easy to remember. “Hot to Go!” is also filled with a joyful message of self-love, which resonates with many listeners and allows the track to connect with a wide audience. Additionally, the track features an easy-to-learn dance routine that pairs perfectly with the chorus, making it even more engaging and shareable, especially on TikTok.

Kyle Denis: Although “Hot to Go!” is punchier and already has a head start, I’m betting on “Red Wine Supernova” — that melody is undeniable, and her voice drips with charisma on that track. I can also see a case being made for “Pink Pony Club,” given how emotional its message is.

Lyndsey Havens: Impossible to pick just one. The magic of Roan is that any of these songs – if not all – could have sleeper hit potential. I’ve lost count of all the times I have heard someone humming “Casual,” or blasting “Pink Pony Club” from their car — and even my mom has become familiar with the “Hot to Go” arm moves after seeing enough Lolla clips on social media. But while I think “Pony” and “Hot” are rightfully leading the charge right now – as both are amped up summer-ready hits – I wouldn’t count “Casual” out just yet. As the season cools down and we head into fall, that song falls more in line with the aesthetic of the season and could ultimately surpass its frontrunners.

Andrew Unterberger: The fact that any of the five are highly credible and conceivable candidates here is pretty insane to begin with — but I’m leaning towards “Pink Pony Club,” which has a sorta slow-building anthemic quality to it that seems like it could prove kinda inextinguishable in the months to come. Hell, even Blink-182 is riffing on it now.

Christine Werthman: I could see “Casual” getting used in a show or movie and that being the boost it needs to take a run at the top. “Casual” is the first Roan song I ever heard in 2022, and I thought it was so clever in its summation of situationship confusion (also accurately described the same year in the beginning of the FKA twigs song “oh my love”). It’s not as bombastic as some of the other Hot 100 options from Roan, but it’s still quirky, smart and honest, with a big belting moment, highly specific scenes and a singalong chorus. It remains one of my favorites.

3. We’re practically starting to run out of Rise and Fall songs that aren’t already Hot 100 hits — but if you had to bet on one more to join the party at this point, which would it be?

Christopher Claxton: I think “California” has great potential to join the Hot 100. “California” is Roan’s reflection on the pursuit of dreams and the inevitable disappointment that sometimes comes with them. She sings about someone who leaves their home to chase their dreams in California, a land of opportunity much like New York. However, upon arriving, Roan realizes she may have been disillusioned, yearning to return home and relive what she left behind. This is a deeply relatable story, as many people leave their hometowns for school or their dream jobs, only to face unexpected challenges and homesickness. In this track, Roan is raw and honest, and I believe her audience can respect and connect with the complex emotions she shares.

Kyle Denis: Probably “My Kink Is Karma,” people love that one!

Lyndsey Havens: As someone who’s not even on TikTok, I know that “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” sure is. That song is so much fun and, as such, so very Brat.

Andrew Unterberger: The smart bet is definitely “My Kink Is Karma,” since that’s built enough streaming momentum to already be on the cusp of making the chart. But “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” feels like the most single-ready of the remaining non-Hot 100 hits — and it’s being used in a suddenly unavoidable Marshall’s commercial — while “Naked in Manhattan” is forever just a big synch away from going absolutely nuclear. We’ll see.

Christine Werthman: I’m putting my chips on “My Kink Is Karma.” Like “Casual,” it’s a mid-tempo song filled with super-specific, clever callouts and an explosive vocal moment. As we’ve seen with other Hot 100 hitmakers (see: Olivia Rodrigo, Gayle), artists find success with tell-off tracks. Roan’s is a takedown, but her delivery is too cool to care, as she coos, “Wishing you the best in the worst way/ Using your distress as foreplay.” It’s a wicked little number, and though it made it onto the Bubbling Under chart, it deserves to jump to the Hot 100.

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4. Chart success is one thing, but last Thursday Chappell Roan also played to a late-afternoon Lollapalooza crowd so packed to the back of Grant Park that the photos and videos almost defied belief — especially considering she only made her first appearance on either the Billboard 200 or Hot 100 just four months ago. What do you think is the biggest reason Roan has been able to experience such exponentially expanding success over such a short period of time?

Christopher Claxton: Chappell Roan has a sound that feels both fresh and familiar, making her music incredibly accessible. Her voice and style bring to mind a combination of Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey, with songs like “Casual” echoing the youthful charm of early Taylor Swift. Moreover, her songs are versatile — they’re perfect for a commute to work, energizing for a workout at the gym, and captivating for live performances. Many artists struggle to create songs that are equally good for streaming and performing, but Chappell Roan seems to have mastered this balance. This versatility, along with her relatable lyrics and engaging melodies, has allowed her to connect with a wide audience and experience rapid success.

Kyle Denis: In addition to Midwest Princess being stacked with stone-cold bangers, Chappell’s live show has really helped her exponential rise. From opening up for Olivia Rodrigo to this latest Lollapalooza set, her theatrical, campy and intensely physical performances have captivated audiences across the country – even those who may not have been enamored with her music off a casual Spotify listen. She’s also making pop music that truly feels fresh; she’s unabashedly queer, her songwriting is evocative yet accessible, and she’s speaking directly to the rising generation of pop music consumers.

Lyndsey Havens: Something I’ve been talking about a lot lately is the idea of a narrative – something that, in an era of TikTok-propelled stars – has felt like less of a driving factor for stardom today. But with Chappell, not only is the music incredible but her story is, too: being dropped by a major label only to move back home only to not lose faith and work even harder only to reemerge more herself and have those songs be the ones that connect so deeply. What has made her rise so much fun for fans new and old is that it feels incredibly earned, and she doesn’t shy away from just how long her journey to the top has been – which is exactly why it feels so special to be a part of it now.

Andrew Unterberger: The biggest thing for me with Chappell is that she seems to be pulling in fans from all age groups. She obviously has the teens and early 20-somethings in her pocket, but I also can’t remember another new pop artist in my adult lifetime who’s inspired more visible excitement in grown folks I know who don’t normally follow or care about contemporary pop music. I’m still not totally sure what to attribute that to, aside from the fact that she’s reminiscent of the best parts of pop stars who emerged a generation earlier (namely Lady Gaga and Katy Perry), so she feels instantly familiar to older fans — but with a modern spin and underdog edge that makes her feel fresh and fun to root for. It’s fascinating stuff, and we’re going to be unpacking all of it for a long time to come.

Christine Werthman: Roan’s album dropped in September 2023, but 2024 brought her a host of live performance opportunities that catapulted her to a wider audience: opening slots on Olivia Rodrigo’s tour, legendary sets at Coachella, Governors Ball and Bonnaroo, and an epic Tiny Desk concert. The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a no-skips album, but Roan really shines live, and this year, she got the proper stages to showcase her talents, which has led people back to her album.

5. Roan’s runaway success is so staggering that it’s bound to cause ripple effects throughout the industry. What’s one way you could (or already do) see her breakout having either a short-term or long-term impact on the music world?

Christopher Claxton: While the full impact of Roan’s success may still be unfolding, one notable short-term effect is her influence on fashion and performance aesthetics. Her elaborate outfits, ranging from the Statue of Liberty to a wrestler and a fairy, have become major talking points. This emphasis on theatrical and eye-catching costumes is likely to inspire other artists to invest more in their visual presentation, enhancing both their performances and their overall appeal. In the long-term, Roan’s success highlights the growing importance of platforms like TikTok in an artist’s career. The platform’s ability to turn snippets into viral sensations can significantly amplify a song’s reach and impact, leading more artists to harness TikTok and platforms like it to advance their music and connect with audiences in creative ways.

Kyle Denis: Opening slots on major tours have always been coveted gets, but I think after the explosive growth of Gracie Abrams and Sabrina Carpenter post-Eras Tour and Roan post-Guts Tour will make artists and their teams even more hellbent on securing those spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Amaarae, who is opening up for Carpenter’s upcoming trek, experiences a similar jump in success. And the same goes for whoever Roan picks to open her inevitable headlining tour.

Lyndsey Havens: I think both in and out of the industry people are driving with their eyes on the rear-view mirror much more – pushing ahead, but also giving much more thought, time and attention to artists who may have previously been overlooked or pushed in a wrong direction or simply not afforded patience. I think – and hope – the success that Chappell is having right now is placing an emphasis back on slow growth and supported artist development. Now that we have all caught up to Chappell, maybe we’ll be more ready for whomever comes next.

Andrew Unterberger: Folks are learning they need to pay attention to opening acts! Between Sabrina Carpenter going supernova post-Eras Tour and Chappell becoming massive following her run kicking off the Guts World Tour, it’s clear that the opener slots on these big-ticket tours — which are increasingly central events in pop culture, even for those not attending — can function as sort of a minor-league feeder system for burgeoning talents who are already ready for the big show. We’re going to see far more eyes on those artists, hoping to catch a future superstar in an embryonic stage, and hopefully we’re going to see those artists doing everything they can to step their own games up and seize the opportunity in front of them.

Christine Werthman: I don’t know that I’ve seen much yet, but I hope her success throws open the door for more queer pop stars on the main stage.