Chart Beat

While the pop music world has been buzzing the past three months about everything from Brat summer to Kendrick Lamar’s Juneteenth takeover to Post Malone’s country pivot, Taylor Swift just keeps racking up weeks atop the Billboard 200.

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The Tortured Poets Department, which first reigned on the Billboard 200 dated May 4, enjoys a 15th week at No. 1 on this week’s chart (dated Aug. 24). She continues to hold off the ascendant Chappell Roan, who climbs 3-2 on the listing this week with her breakout The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album, and she is now just four weeks away from tying Morgan Wallen’s 19-week mark for the longest-ruling No. 1 album of the decade.

Will Swift match that Wallen mark? And why has the pop discussion seemingly sidestepped Swift while her album remains this dominant? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. While the pop discussion this summer has largely revolved around Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has now reached 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200, one of just two albums this decade to reach that mark. Why do you think Swift’s dominance has felt so (relatively) quiet this season? 

Rania Aniftos: While nothing Swift does is ever really quiet, we’re in a new era of pop music where there isn’t just one artist dominating the charts at a time, which I think music fans have been craving for a long time. While Swift has been holding steady on the Billboard 200, the Hot 100 has given us a look into the next generation of pop. That’s why the rising popularity of stars like Sabrina, Charli and Chappell is getting so much attention this summer, while Swift maintains her reign as expected. 

Katie Atkinson: Taylor’s loudest moment came when the album debuted in April, and then when she kicked off the European leg of her Eras Tour in May, so she was more so the pop story of the spring instead of summer. But her Eras Tour hasn’t slowed down in the months since, with the Euro leg wrapping Tuesday (Aug. 20) back in London. So even if she wasn’t getting all the headlines that Chappell, Sabrina and Charli were, she was still plugging away weekend after weekend, debuting new Tortured Poets songs onstage, releasing new physical versions of the album, and quietly staying the conversation, racking up 15 weeks at No. 1 along the way.

Rylee Johnston: I think it comes down to two things: Taylor Swift’s level of superstardom vs. Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX’s and the type of music that was released. When looking at Roan, Carpenter and Charli, this summer has been monumental for their careers and arguably a pivotal moment for them as artists. Swift has already solidified herself as one of the biggest artists out there — so much so that it’s almost expected that she have a big opening due to the span of her reach; a flop on the charts would attract higher attention. When looking specifically at the music released, The Tortured Poets Department doesn’t have that “summertime” feel quite like the music off Brat, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and the two singles we’ve gotten from Carpenter’s upcoming Short n’ Sweet. If Swift had created a more summer-feeling album and marketed it in that way, there may have been a more prominent presence than what we see now. 

Jason Lipshutz: While Chappell, Sabrina and Charli are exciting new stars whose respective rises have invigorated popular music with new (or renewed, in Charli’s case) perspectives and fresh aesthetics, Taylor Swift remains the commercial pinnacle, a superstar in a class of her own when it comes to consumer interest. As such, our collective focus as pop purveyors has naturally gravitated toward the new crop of A-listers, while Swift has remained dominant in the relative background. And there’s nothing wrong with that! Swift has been on top for so long that it makes sense for the cultural conversation to slightly shift to other subjects, even as she logs more weeks at No. 1 and continues breaking records (in some cases, her own).

Andrew Unterberger: The other artists released and/or developed major hits more recently than Swift has from Poets — which certainly helps them feel more current, in additional to the natural excitement surrounding them as artists on the come-up rather than artists maintaining their throne. Also worth noting that Swift has mostly kept on the sidelines so far as far as election season is concerned, while Chappell and Charli both got huge exposure bumps from being involved (directly or not) with vice president Kamala Harris’ early presidential campaigning.

2. Speaking of Roan, her Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album climbs to No. 2 on the chart this week. Do you think it will pass Tortured in the next week or two, or will Poets be able to hold it off until the album begins to lose momentum? 

Rania Aniftos: Knowing Taylor, she’ll stay on the top of that chart no matter what. Maybe she’ll drop another music video or release another special edition vinyl, giving the album the boost to stay at that No. 1 spot.

Katie Atkinson: Looking ahead at the album release calendar, Swift might be the least of Chappell’s worries. Post Malone put out his first country album last week and fellow summer “it” girl Sabrina Carpenter puts out Short n’ Sweet this week – not to mention Travis Scott’s 10th-anniversary mixtape reissue coming Friday too. Roan’s little-album-that-could making it all the way to No. 1 would have been a great cherry on top for her star-making summer, but taking it to No. 2 alone, almost a year after its initial release, is still a massive accomplishment.

Rylee Johnston: Honestly, Roan’s album could stand a chance unless a new set of TTPD variations comes out for Swifties to collect. It’s also worth noting that Swift’s album has already begun a descent in album units compared to Roan’s rise this week. And, if the latter decides to drop the new music she’s been teasing on the road, she could find herself with a top spot — as it seems her fanbase only continues to grow with every live performance she puts on. 

Jason Lipshutz: The next few weeks on the Billboard 200 should be pretty topsy-turvy, with the debuts of new albums from Post Malone and Sabrina Carpenter, among others. I’m not sure if and when Rise and Fall will shift above Tortured on the chart, either at No. 1 or elsewhere lower in the top 5 — Chappell has the new-school momentum, while Taylor has the longstanding commercial power — although I am rooting for Chappell to log at least one week atop the Billboard 200, to cap the remarkable ascent of a singular artist. Now that it’s reached the runner-up spot, I’m hoping Rise and Fall can hit No. 1 sometime in the next month or so.

Andrew Unterberger: I think Chappell will get there eventually, but it may have to take it by force — with a deluxe version or reissue or some other method of actively boosting consumption. If Roan’s team just expects she’ll grow into the No. 1 naturally based on her pre-existing momentum…. Taylor Swift doesn’t really lose by default very often, y’know? It’ll have to be a specific push, maybe centered around the album’s one-year anniversary in late September.

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3. While Tortured Poets doesn’t have the singles-based propulsion of some of the other albums defining the pop summer, it does have a single that’s grown in recent weeks in “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart,” which continues to rise through the chart’s 30s this week. Do you see it continuing to swell into a big enough hit to extend Tortured Poets’ chart shelf life, or do you see it fading along with the album in the weeks to come? 

Rania Aniftos: I see it fading only because I have a feeling she’ll be announcing Reputation (Taylor’s Version) very soon, giving other songs time to shine.

Katie Atkinson: This was the song that originally stuck out to me when the album was released, mostly because (despite its heartbreaking lyrical content) it was the happiest, poppiest track among a more, well, tortured project. I’m not surprised to see it rise as the favorite on radio and streaming in the months since, and maybe it could have a similar Eras Tour-fueled journey back to the upper reaches of the Hot 100 (following its debut-week No. 3 high) like “Cruel Summer” did last year. Looking at the Adult Pop Airplay chart, where it sits in the top 10 this week at its No. 8 peak, there’s still room to grow.

Rylee Johnston: It helps that the Eras tour is still going on, but with how long the album has been out now, timing is really going to need to be on her side. One way she could most likely get a jump on the chart would be a surprise appearance during “Broken Heart,” similar to what she did with Travis Kelce joining her to do the number on stage. If another big single comes out, then it’s very possible that it’ll overshadow “Broken Heart” and prevent it from reaching the top. We can’t forget that Carpenter’s album is dropping this week, and that will also certainly have an impact on the charts. 

Jason Lipshutz: The chart prospects of “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” have been tricky to nail down. I expected the song to go full “Karma” on the Hot 100, quickly growing into a top 10 Hot 100 hit and radio mainstay once lead single “Fortnight” had subsided a bit — and while “Broken Heart” hasn’t gotten there yet and might not at all, the song has slowly been rising, a top 40 hit that’s now 16 spots above “Fortnight” on the tally. At this point, I think it will keep climbing into the top 20 and make a strong imprint on pop radio but fall a little short of the top 10 — something closer to a “Delicate” this time around.

Andrew Unterberger: The song climbing back into the top 40 is already more than I was expecting, to be honest. I like the song but it seemed like the moment had passed for it, and I wasn’t really convinced that massive radio airplay was ever in the cards for it. But if “Broken Heart” gets a new remix, with the right guest? I still don’t see it challenging for a second Tortured Poets No. 1 hit, but it could probably get top 20 at least.

4. With its incredible endurance atop the Billboard 200 and its historic first-week performance, do you think we will look back at The Tortured Poets Department as Taylor Swift’s peak of popularity a couple decades from now? 

Rania Aniftos: Yes, but there’s nuance here. I don’t think Poets on its own will stand as peak of popularity in Swift’s career, but Poets in the context of the Eras Tour will. Dropping a 15-week Billboard 200 chart topper in the midst of a massive, record-breaking tour with your Super Bowl-winning boyfriend cheering you on from the crowd is definitely a peak I’d like to stand on.

Katie Atkinson: I think that the concurrent Eras Tour will be remembered as the symbol of Swift’s stratospheric popularity right now more so than this album. To me, this album’s domination is because of all the attention and goodwill and community that has been built up by this once-in-a-lifetime tour. She has an unparalleled opportunity to immediately share these new songs with stadium crowds, and unlike a lot of veteran acts whose fans don’t want to hear the new stuff and just want the hits, she’s able to give them both and they eat up both voraciously. So Tortured Poets has become the 15-week No. 1 phenomenon that it is with the weight of the biggest tour possibly ever behind it.

Rylee Johnston: Maybe if the Eras tour wasn’t going on at the same time, but I think her tour will overshadow the album. Even when TTPD was released, the buzz wasn’t just about the music, but whether she would incorporate it into her tour and how the drop would impact her set list. I would even group the album more underneath the tour’s umbrella whereas her previous albums had air to breathe and a moment for itself. I don’t really see this period as her TTPD era, like I would with albums like Reputation or Red, and think her next album would potentially be more impactful, as it would be singular and not lumped in with a decade-spanning tour. 

Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that we will view these past three years as that peak — from the first re-records to Midnights to the Eras tour to The Tortured Poets Department — an incredible cultural force that extended into all facets of popular music, from the touring industry to awards ceremonies to social media reach (don’t forget that “Cruel Summer” went viral, all the way to No. 1, in the middle of that span!) to studio output. And to that lattermost aspect, The Tortured Poets Department may serve as the crown jewel, as a sprawling, idiosyncratic, highly vulnerable project that scored the biggest first-week debut, and has now spent the most weeks at No. 1, of any Swift album. She has blown away the competition on her own terms.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s possible the history books will paint it as such — and it would certainly fit, with the numbers and everything — but having lived through both years I don’t think there’s really any question that Taylor Swift’s 2023 was much, much bigger than her 2024. Which isn’t to take away from Swift’s 2024, which has still been massively successful on every conceivable level. But her 2023 was a once-in-a-lifetime pop year, not to ever be repeated — by her, or possibly by anyone else either.

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5. Yes or no: Does Tortured Poets ultimately match One Thing at a Time’s 19-week run atop the 200?

Rania Aniftos: Yes. Team Taylor! 

Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t count Swift out, like, ever, but she has a much more challenging road ahead to snag four more weeks. I think there’s a strong chance she could get a few more – especially with some physical shipments still looming and the potential for an Anthology vinyl release – but I predict she’ll fall shy of 19.

Rylee Johnston: No, but mostly because the two albums are in different categories. What’s impressive about One Thing at a Time’s success is how the country album has been able to overshadow pop music. Whereas Swift’s global reach has enabled her to generate a level of stardom that results in immediate domination of the charts for a longer period. What’s worth calling out though, is that both artists have very loyal fans, and I think they all are willing to put in the work to help both artists remain at the top. 

Jason Lipshutz: I’m going to say yes, because, even if other projects sneak into the top spot in the coming weeks and months, I have to imagine that The Tortured Poets Department will remain a massive physical product around the holidays. Who needs a shiny new toy from Santa when you can have “My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys” on vinyl? My prediction is, before the end of 2024, TTPD will have notched 20+ weeks at No. 1. 

Andrew Unterberger: Do you remember that One Thing at a Time racked up its 17th, 18th and 19th weeks this year — most recently in March? I don’t think we’re anywhere near Swift reaching the end of her run here; she could go 10 straight weeks without hitting the top spot and still be a considerable threat to hit it in Week 11. Bottom line: I’d be pretty surprised if she doesn’t get to 19 at some point.