Chart Beat

It seems like every week in 2025, there’s some new breakthrough for Doechii. The rising rapper and breakout pop star of late 2024 has already won a Grammy and delivered the most-acclaimed performance on Music’s Biggest Night, and this week she adds to her growing list of accolades with the title of Billboard‘s Woman of the Year for 2025.

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Meanwhile, Doechii continues to excel on the Billboard charts — particularly the Billboard Hot 100, where she notches two songs in the top half of the listing this week (dated Mar. 15): breakout hit “Denial Is a River” rebounds to No. 22, one off its previously reached peak of No. 21, while the Sleepy Hallow-led redo of her old YouTube upload “Anxiety” debuts at No. 45. And those two songs are likely to be joined next on the chart week by Doechii’s own solo ‘Anxiety,” which she released to DSPs last Thursday (Mar. 5.)

Which of these songs has the biggest Hot 100 potential? And how important is it that Doechii capitalize on her momentum ASAP? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Denial Is a River,” from 2024’s Alligator Bites Never Heal, continues to hang around the 20s on the Hot 100 this week, rebounding 25-22 after previously hitting a No. 21 high on the chart. Do you think it will eventually reach the top 10, or is it running out of time to make such a jump? 

Rania Aniftos: I would love to see it make the top 10, but I can see her dropping a slew of new songs that might make their way up to the top 10 quicker. It’s only the beginning for Doechii’s chart success, without a doubt.

Kyle Denis: “Denial” has already gotten several high-profile live performances (the Grammys, Cobert, Tiny Desk) and a star-studded music video (featuring a weeks-long rollout and cameos from Zack Fox, ScHoolboy Q, etc.), so its best bet for a stint in the top 10 at this point is probably when it starts to peak on radio. The song has only just reached the top 10 on Rap Airplay (No. 9) and Rhythmic Airplay (No. 10); and it’s still climbing on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay (No. 14) and R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay (No. 15). “Denial” will need to peak on radio right when the 2024 Hot 100 holdovers (“A Bar Song,” “Lose Control,” etc.) start to slip out of the top 10; it’s not impossible, but the timing will be tight.

Jason Lipshutz: It depends on what Doechii does next. The rapper is so red-hot at this moment that casual fans are diving into her back catalog, which includes her mixtape from 2024, as well as songs that came out well before it; the recent success of “Denial Is a River” is due to the song’s bouncy personality, as well as the general demand for Doechii music. If she lets “Denial” simmer for a few more months, the track might eventually climb into the top 10 — but if Doechii drops more singles or a new project in the near future, that material will likely crowd out “Denial” on the Hot 100.

Heran Mamo: I don’t think it’s running out of time. When I think about Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” — a song that debuted at No. 100 on the Hot 100 and spent a record-breaking 59 weeks climbing to No. 1 – it reminds me that almost anything is possible these days when it comes to the charts. Doechii’s current momentum can certainly give “Denial is a River” more of a boost, while her future performances can also help continue increasing the song’s profile.  

Andrew Unterberger: The rising tide of All Things Doechii will continue to lift it — I have to imagine it’ll at least hit the top 20 soon — but getting inside the top 10 will definitely either take an additional pronounced bump from a new remix or live performance or viral moment, or it will take wide and sustained radio support. The latter feels unlikely to me — “Denial” is pretty unconventional for a radio single — and the former has already happened so many times it’s hard to imagine it has many more such bullets left. I wouldn’t bet on it happening, but I wouldn’t bet against it (or against anything Doechii-related, really) either.

2. Meanwhile, even older Doechii songs are becoming new hits: “Anxiety,” a 2023 Sleepy Hallow song featuring a sample of Doechii’s straight-to-YouTube 2019 song of the same name, debuts at No. 45 on the Hot 100 this week. Is the desire for new Doechii so strong that folks are now finding all songs to seize onto, or do you think there’s another reason for the song’s newly viral popularity? 

Rania Aniftos: I think a massive wave of people are finally discovering her! She’s been that girl for a while, but ever since her groundbreaking Grammys performance, she picked up a whole lot of new fans. They loved “Denial Is a River,” so they’re going back through her discography and finding new gems to enjoy — “Anxiety” being the latest one to receive much-deserved attention. 

Kyle Denis: I think it’s definitely the desire for all things Doechii right now; it’s why she’s the undisputed winner of Paris Fashion Week and why an offhand Hot Ones quip can inspire a week’s worth of social media discourse. I also think a lot of people are genuinely feeling quite anxious right now. Whether it’s economic anxiety, political anxiety or just general nerves around how the world is evolving, “Anxiety” is the kind of song that speaks directly to those feelings instead of offering escapism – and we’ve had a lot of music do the latter since the turn of the decade and the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Jason Lipshutz: The desire for Doechii music really is that strong across the board. In the streaming era, one of the clearest signs that an artist is about to explode and reach superstardom is when multiple songs in their back catalogs start receiving significant upticks, as previously unfamiliar fans dive in to their discographies and create belated hits. “Anxiety” has a hook that’s ripe for stressed-out TikTok confessionals — but if another artist was delivering it, the song wouldn’t be as in-demand as it is now, with Doechii attached.

Heran Mamo: Given the current state of the world (insert deep sigh), a song about our collective anxiety couldn’t have resurfaced at a more appropriate time. But my theory is that there’s been a growing interest in Doechii’s YouTube channel that’s documented her come up for years (including her “I got fired thank God” video that started making the rounds on the internet shortly after her historic Grammy win in February) and featured original music. Fans were probably initially attracted to “Anxiety” because of her clever reworking of the Gotye sample. And not only are they having fun with it now, but other celebrities are too. Will Smith shared an old clip from The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, featuring the origin of the “Anxiety” TikTok dance trend, that had Doechii’s song playing over it. Raye and Nara Smith did a cute twinning TikTok to it. And Demi Lovato danced to it. What’s not to love about it?  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s the right song at the right time, but more importantly it’s the right artist. A Gotye-sampling stressed-out anthem was always gonna have a good chance of hitting in 2025, but with Doechii singing the hook — all it needed was a little viral spark, and it’s not surprising at all that it’s since caught fire the way it has.

3. While the version of “Anxiety” with her as a featured artist continues to take off, Doechii has also caught fire with her original solo version, which she has now released to all streaming platforms. Which of the versions do you prefer, and which do you think will ultimately become the bigger/longer-lasting chart hit? 

Rania Aniftos: It’s the solo version for me. Doechii shines so bright on her own, and the corresponding TikTok trend has been spreading the track at a rapid rate — which will surely be reflected on the charts in the coming weeks.

Kyle Denis: Easily Doechii’s solo version, and I’m willing to bet money that it will eclipse the Sleepy Hallow version in under a month. 

Jason Lipshutz: The Sleepy Hallow version is a bit more effective to me because the Gotye sample is backgrounded, so that both artists can create something distinct in front of it. That said, the solo version of “Anxiety” offers more Doechii, at a moment where she’s quickly ascending to a new level of stardom, and that just-released version will also receive a pronounced promotional push. I’d expect both takes on “Anxiety” to linger around the chart, but the solo version to swiftly outpace the original.

Heran Mamo: I personally like Doechii’s solo version of “Anxiety” better because I like its dramatic flair, especially the “Quiet on set, please” interlude. She’s such a dynamic artist, and I love how that plays out even within a single song. Sleepy Hallow’s version made major chart moves in the week following the release of Doechii’s solo version – the song had previously peaked at No. 3 on Bubbling Under Hot 100 and No. 31 on Rhythmic Airplay, and it shot to No. 45 on the Hot 100 and No. 11 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs this week (dated March 15) – but I think Doechii’s version will ultimately become the bigger charting hit due to the demand from her fans.

And it certainly seems to be trending that way: Doechii’s “Anxiety” has already reached No. 5 on Spotify’s global chart. And after Doechii broke down the lore behind “Anxiety” on TikTok and explained that Sleepy Hallow’s track samples her version — with people then flocking to the original Coven Music Session YouTube video (that has now amassed more than five million views at the time of publication) — her original “Anxiety” track is bound to get even more attention. Somebody’s watchin’ her alright, and they’re listening, too.  

Andrew Unterberger: To my surprise, I actually prefer the Sleepy Hallow version to the full Doechii solo version, but mostly because it has a lighter touch with the “Somebody That I Used to Know” sample, just using the tense acoustic shuffle of the verse without dipping into the much-more-obvious intro or chorus melodies. In any event, it seems practically guaranteed that the solo version will have the higher chart ceiling — it’s already doing gangbusters numbers on streaming, being greeted with the excitement and enthusiasm of a brand new Doechii single — and I feel like it has a pretty good shot of becoming her first Hot 100 top 10 hit in the next couple weeks.

4. Outside of her single releases, Doechii has been on an incredible run of live performances and music videos and other big moments in the past half year or so. Is there one such moment that you think of as being a particular difference-maker for her in terms of bringing her to the level of exposure that she’s currently at? 

Rania Aniftos: I already mentioned the Grammys, but that performance really was a mainstream display of her creativity and stage presence. However, to switch it up a little, I’m going to also mention her incredible performance for NPR’s Tiny Desk. There were so many viral TikTok clips surrounding that performance, and that likely helped boost “Denial Is a River” upon its release.

Kyle Denis: I think there are actually three key moments. I’d say the first was the release of “Alter Ego” with JT in March; it served as something of a palette cleanser for those who were more enamored by Doechii’s idiosyncrasies that her middle-of-the-road pop-rap offerings like “What It Is” and “Booty Drop.” 

The second moment comes with the release of “Boom Bap” a week before the full Alligator Bites mixtape dropped. By this point, we had already gotten several entries in her Swamp Sessions series as well as “Nissan Altima,” but the actual boom bap sound of the record coupled with her fearless bars and incorporation of tongues set social media ablaze, perfectly setting the tone for the full project. 

I’d say the third moment – and most important – was the one-two punch of her Late Show and Tiny Desk performances. Not only did the two promo stops happen in consecutive days during Grammy voting, but they also allowed the general American audience to experience how dynamic of a live performer Doechii is. She opted for medleys both times, showcasing the versatility of her sound while offering something completely new and distinct – visually and aesthetically – both times. With those performances going viral leading people to discover her mixtape, Doechii perfectly set the stage for her star-making 2025 run. 

Jason Lipshutz: When we look back on the 2025 Grammys, we will see a performance that yielded a new top 10 hit — Chappell Roan’s “Pink Pony Club” — and another that minted a new star. Doechii may have taken the stage as part of a medley of best new artist nominees, but she dominated with vision and command, showcasing her technical skill while also pulling off elaborate choreography. A lot of people already knew Doechii before that performance, but the Grammys resulted in a mainstream groundswell that unlocked a new level of fame.

Heran Mamo: Performing alongside Ms. Lauryn Hill last weekend has to be the one. Not many rappers, whether they’re emerging or established, can say they’ve been able to do that. And it’s special because Ms. Hill was the first woman to win the Grammy for best rap album and Doechii became the most recent one (and third female winner overall) last month. Doechii also wrote on Instagram that The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill was the first full-length album she ever listened to. “I would sing your songs as if I wrote them, imagining myself on stage,” she said. I wonder if she ever imagined herself on stage with Ms. Hill. Talk about a full-circle moment!  

Andrew Unterberger: A lot of other moments set the table for Doechii, but her Grammys performance was the proper meal. Coming just after she’d won best rap album for Alligator Bites, she put on an absolute clinic of a live performance, one that had no less accomplished a Grammys fixture than Billie Eilish absolutely gasping in the audience. Her consumption numbers zoomed up immediately afterwards, and they haven’t stopped climbing in the weeks since.

5. Doechii has become Billboard’s Woman of the Year before even releasing an official album. Do you think it’s important for Doechii’s career that she capitalize on her incredible momentum of early 2025 by releasing an album in the immediate future, or would she be better off letting all these moments she’s cultivating get their full shine and then coming back with the official debut once she’s had a chance to breathe a little? 

Rania Aniftos: That’s a tough one. Like I’ve said, she’s so unique and creative, so I hope she doesn’t feel the pressure to rush out an album. She can do just fine dropping strings of singles until she’s ready for a debut album that she’s really proud of. I trust Doechii’s instincts and judgement fully on this one. 

Kyle Denis: I don’t think she should feel pressured to drop her debut album anytime in the immediate future. “Anxiety” is clearly gearing up to be probably her biggest chart hit since “What It Is” and people still have Alligator Bites in heavy rotation. Knowing how volatile social media can be when artist experiences success – and how especially cruel they are to Black queer artists – an immediate album release could backfire and speed up how overexposed she feels. I say she coast off these moments and “Anxiety” through the summer and start rolling out the debut album after we’ve celebrated a year of Alligator Bites. Regardless, if Doechii has proven anything over the past few months, it’s that she only really needs to listen to herself. 

Jason Lipshutz: Doechii could release a new album in the next few weeks and surf the current hype wave at its crest; she could also let her current singles simmer a bit more, then fire up a brand new project for the fall, to close out the year with a bang and put herself in 2026 Grammys consideration. Neither option is bad! As long as she capitalizes on her moment in some form or fashion, Doechii is going to remain a very big deal for the foreseeable future.

Heran Mamo: Considering all she’s been able to accomplish before releasing her debut album, I think Doechii has bought herself a little more time. She already delivered a critically acclaimed and now Grammy-winning project with Alligator Bites Never Heal just last summer, but given the recent viral success of “Anxiety,” fans have proven they have quite a ravenous appetite for her music and want to be satisfied quickly. Her label TDE is known for long album cycles – as well as high-quality albums. It might take some more time for Doechii & co. to make sure she’s putting out the best possible product, but I don’t doubt they’ll find ways to keep her in the conversation until then and make sure she doesn’t lose her hot streak. 

Andrew Unterberger: I think the “what” matters a lot more than the “when” with the album. It’s tempting to point to someone like Ice Spice as an example of an artist who was as white-hot a couple years ago as Doechii is now, and point to the underperformance of her 2024-released Y2K as evidence that waiting too long to drop her debut LP was a big mistake. But if that album had been extraordinary, I don’t believe it would’ve really mattered so much how long fans had to wait for it. And if Doechii’s debut album is extraordinary — which, given her track record, we have to believe it probably will be — it won’t really matter if it’s released three months from now or three years from now. So I’d tell her to focus on that first and foremost, and every other concern will quickly become secondary.