Chart Beat

It’s a career week for rising pop star Tate McRae on the Billboard charts, following the release of her much-anticipated third album So Close To What on Friday (Feb. 25).

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So Close bows at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 (dated Mar. 8) with 177,000 units moved in its first frame, according to Luminate — her first set to top the chart. Meanwhile, the set lands 11 tracks on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, led by surging “Sports Car” (No. 16) and the brand-new “Revolving Door” (No. 22), both of which are boosted by eye-catching and elaborately choreographed music videos, now a McRae trademark.

Why has this album era marked such a level-up for McRae? And is her superstar status now secure? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

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1. McRae’s So Close To What debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 177,000 units moved this week. On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think McRae should be about that first-week number?

Hannah Dailey: Definitely a 10! As much momentum as she’s had these past few months, I don’t think a No. 1 album was necessarily guaranteed for her – so she should absolutely be celebrating those numbers. 

Kyle Denis: 10, no doubt. We’re talking about someone who hasn’t sniffed the top 15 of the Billboard Hot 100 since she hit No. 3 with “Greedy” early last year. I don’t think anyone was expecting such a strong six-figure bow – especially when her previous LP, which housed “Greedy,” opened with just 66,000 units. The pre-release singles for So Close To What may not have clicked in the way most of us expected – or would have liked – them to, but clearly, they served their purpose. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 10. This Billboard 200 debut encapsulates Tate McRae’s ascension to pop’s A-list, as not only her first No. 1 entry but with nearly triple the equivalent album units of her last album, which was released just 14 months earlier. Think Later contained the bigger hit single in “Greedy,” but So Close To What arrives on an undeniable wave of momentum for McRae, who is now able to flood the Hot 100 with double-digit new entries upon releasing a full-length. That type of achievement is typically reserved for superstars; the So Close To What debut confirms that McRae is on her way there.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a 10! The projections kept growing by the week, and now there’s no doubt that Tate McRae is one of the breakout pop artists in an already-stacked era for such emergent talents. She’s put in the work, and now everyone is really seeing the fruits of her labor.

2. So Close To What outperforms the bow for McRae’s Think Later album, released just a year and change ago, by well over 100k units. What do you think is the biggest reason behind her wildly improved performance on this album? 

Hannah Dailey: I love how committed she and her team have been to achieving great visual moments. From scenes in her music videos – like the nude police walk in “It’s OK I’m OK” or the impossible back bend in “Revolving Door” — to the choreography in her live performances, she’s been catching people’s eyes first and then earning their ears, too. With Think Later, I think she was only just discovering how much this works for her; now, she’s locked in. 

Kyle Denis: I think the overall boost in Tate’s profile over the past year was instrumental to her improved performance with So Close To What. Although she didn’t churn out another smash on the level of “Greedy,” she remained an incredibly consistent musical and cultural presence. The “It’s OK, I’m OK” music video has a moment on socials, as did “Sports Car,” which smartly arrived one month out from the album’s full release. Most importantly, however, Tate spent most of 2024 touring Think Later, playing 65 shows North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania. That kind of healthy word-of-mouth kept consumers interested in Tate, even if certain singles didn’t exactly set the charts ablaze. Tate kept showing up and believing in her work – and she also delivered an incredibly solid pop album worthy of that kind of push. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think one of the benefits of releasing her third album in such close proximity to her second is that she never really went away in between cycles. She embarked on an arena tour, including stops at Madison Square Garden and The Forum. She was the musical guest on Saturday Night Live (twice now). She starred in a Rhode campaign alongside Hailey Bieber. She was spotted vacationing with Kid Laroi and Olivia Rodrigo — and more. No matter what, McRae managed to stay in the public eye all while fans grew hungrier for more music.

Jason Lipshutz: A combination of higher interest in McRae’s music as a whole, and the songs leading up to So Close To What. Since scoring her first top 10 hit with “Greedy” in 2023, McRae has toured a mix of amphitheaters and arenas, performed on a slew of awards shows and Saturday Night Live, and most importantly, has kept accruing top 40 hits on the Hot 100: “Exes,” “It’s OK I’m OK,” “2 Hands,” “Sports Car,” and now “Revolving Door.” McRae has been consistent in her output and an increasing presence in pop culture, which has helped yield one of the biggest debuts of the year thus far.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s as much about the pop moment as it is about McRae herself. A few years ago — hell, maybe as recently as late 2023 when Think Later dropped — the top 40 world was in an uncharacteristically inhospitable place when it came to big, bubbly, performance-forward pop music. But now in early 2025, thanks to the breakouts of artists like Sabrina Carpenter, Charli XCX and Chappell Roan — and, it should be said, of McRae herself — it feels much more dead-center to the mainstream again. Now this album is dropping at pretty much the exact right moment.

3. An impressive 11 tracks from the album rank on the Hot 100 this week, led by the previously released “Sports Car” (reaching a new peak of No. 16) and the brand-new “Revolving Door” (No. 22). Do you think either of the two will end up being a long-lasting hit from the album — or do you think something else from the tracklist has a better shot at that? 

Hannah Dailey: I could see either of the collaborations — “bloodonmyhands” with Flo Milli or “I Know Love” with The Kid LAROI – taking off. But we shall see where the tides of TikTok trends take us. 

Kyle Denis: I think both “Sports Car” and “Revolving Door” have solid chances at building into long-lasting hits, but I have my eyes on “Purple Lace Bra.” That one feels like the kind of post-Born to Die dream-pop track that randomly becomes a trending TikTok sound. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think “Sports Car” could grow into a top 10 hit, easily. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Revolving Door” has a radio-ready hook that makes good use of McRae’s range, but the answer here is “Sports Car,” which has a more memorable chorus (flipping the script on “Wait (The Whisper Song),” two decades later!) and effective siren-cry synths supporting McRae’s breathy melodies. When we look back on this era for Tate McRae, I’d guess that “Sports Car” serves as the defining song.

Andrew Unterberger: “Revolving Door” is the one to me. It just feels a little weightier than her other recent hits, just a little more musically layered and emotionally resonant — and the choreography in its video should inspire months’ worth of imitators to keep it alive on social media through the spring.

4. If you were on McRae’s team, what wide you be advising her to do to capitalize on the momentum of this impressive first-week bow for So Close To What? How would you best extend the album era — or would you encourage her to move on from it quickly? 

Hannah Dailey: I would say build on the momentum of her Saturday Night Live and Tonight Show appearances and keep getting Tate on people’s TV and phone screens as much as possible. Her songs really come together when she’s performing live, and her ability to deliver attitude and choreography on stage is the primary thing that makes her stand out from the rest of the pop crop – so capitalize on that by continuing to manufacture these visual moments.  

Kyle Denis: I would keep pushing singles! “Sports Car” clearly isn’t done, and “Revolving Door” is showing promising signs – those two tracks should at least carry the era into the summer. By that point, the Miss Possessive Tour should be wrapping its European leg, so to ring in the North American leg, I’d drop either a remix of one of the two aforementioned songs or a new single that previews a So Close To What deluxe edition, which should drop near the end of the tour, just in time for first-round Grammy voting. 

Lyndsey Havens: The members of her team are brilliant when it comes to keeping Tate top of mind — and on the road. The fact that she’s heading back out on a new headlining tour so soon will ensure that the album’s lifespan will be a long one.

Jason Lipshutz: She’s already planned precisely what I would advise her to do: look for more mainstream opportunities, then tour the heck out of this album. McRae will perform on Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight after stopping by SNL and The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon last week, and her world tour kicks off in two weeks, with arena dates scheduled through the fall. There’s no need to move on from an album that’s clearly resonating with pop fans, so McRae should present that album to a global audience and raise her profile even more. 

Andrew Unterberger: Get Tate McRae some big festival slots! The early performance of So Close To What should prove she has the audience, and the music videos and live performances she’s had in the promo run up to its release should prove she’s got the talent and the presence. She could really use those big live moments in front of a festival audience to springboard to national phenom status, the way Roan and Carpenter did last year.

5. Much of the online pop discourse around McRae centers on whether or not she should be considered a “Main Pop Girl.” Does this debut establish her as one to you, or does she still have some remaining steps to take first? 

Hannah Dailey: She’s very much on her way to Main Pop Girl status, but I think I still need to see one of her singles have a little more dominance and longevity, both culturally and on the charts. I do think that this debut makes a strong statement, though, in that she really seems to have found her sound and her niche in the pop world. She’s standing on her own. 

Kyle Denis: I think she needs to visit the Hot 100’s top 10 a few more times, but these first-week numbers certainly make a compelling case. If she pulls some impressive numbers with the Miss Possessive tour, I’d be willing to seriously entertain that conversation. 

Lyndsey Havens: I don’t know why or how there’s anything left to debate here. I think McRae has been a main pop girl for a minute, and reaching the top of the Billboard 200 proves there are no steps left to take. The way in which she’s brought back the 2000s pop girl energy with her ability to sing and dance has been warmly received from the start, but with So Close it seems her impressive skillset is finally being entirely embraced.

Jason Lipshutz: Right now, McRae is a streaming-era pop star with a growing collection of rock-solid hits and tons of cache with young listeners. This debut solidifies her standing as a name that pop fans of all ages need to know, even if she is still lacking that cross-generation smash like “Espresso” or “Drivers License.” That may come in time, as she continues honing her sound and public persona; for now, though, she’s seeing the requisite boxes that an artist with Main Pop Girl aspirations in front of her and checking them all.

Andrew Unterberger: I think she’s at that Gracie Abrams level right now where if she’s not quite there yet, she’s at least close enough to be able to reach out and touch it. It’s a crowded field for Main Pop Girls right now, and many of them still have hits and accolades that McRae can’t boast just yet — but if she stays on the trajectory she’s currently on, it won’t be long until she’s on similar footing.