Chart Beat

If you thought that we were finished with major releases for the 2024 calendar as we approached Thanksgiving and the beginning of year-end season, Kendrick Lamar let you know real quick that the year ain’t done yet.

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Two Friday afternoons ago (Nov. 22), Lamar snuck up on an unsuspecting public with the sneak-release of his previously announced new album GNX. The 12-track set builds on the momentum he established earlier this year with his Drake feud — which produced a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s in the Future and Metro Boomin collab “Like That” and his own “Not Like Us” — and produces a third Hot 100 No. 1 with “Squabble Up,” tops among the seven new songs the rapper launches into the top 10 this week, while also topping the Billboard 200 with 319,000 units moved.

Which is the most impressive of his current chart achievements? And how do we rate Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 at this point? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 319,000 first-week units — the biggest debut week for a rap album in 2024, despite no physical release and just 12 tracks’ worth of streaming totals — while also capturing seven of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100, including the entire top five. Which of the two achievements is more impressive to you?  

Kyle Denis: I think the Hot 100 feat is a bit more impressive. The first-week units total for GNX is commendable, but the figure is squarely in Kendrick’s usual ballpark. Occupying the Hot 100’s entire top five – in the face of the fast-rising holiday songs and some of the most stable smashes of the year – is the kind of feat that moves Kendrick into a different column. Tons of acts have had albums debut with over 300,000 units, but only three other acts – The Beatles, Taylor Swift and Drake – have simultaneously held the top five spots on the Hot 100. That’s the kind of stat that helps get you to GOAT status. 

Angel Diaz: I think both are equally as impressive. Selling that many units off pure streams and debuting No. 1 with no lead up or warning other than the GNX trailer he posted minutes before the album hit, is crazy when you look back on that fateful Friday afternoon here on the East Coast. But it’s also very cool to see “underground” West Coast rappers like Lefty Gunplay and Dody6 getting their first Hot 100 looks thanks to Kendrick. That’s unheard of in today’s landscape. 

Jason Lipshutz: The latter, not just because it’s a chart achievement that only Taylor Swift, Drake and The Beatles have done before, but because flooding the top 5 of the Hot 100 demonstrates how much bigger GNX is than Kendrick Lamar’s other recent output. After all, 2022’s Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers debuted with two songs in the top 5 of the Hot 100 and three total in the top 10 — impressive for any artist, but literally half as impressive as what Lamar just accomplished with GNX. A new Kendrick Lamar album was always going to be in contention for the biggest rap debut of the year, but we’ve never this level of consumption of his songs on the Hot 100, and that chart feat showcases the album’s true enormity.

Michael Saponara: MUSTARDDDD. I’d have to go with occupying the entire top five of this week’s Hot 100 as, ironically enough, Drake was the only rapper to ever do that before him. Kendrick’s had a commercial resurgence that just wasn’t as potent earlier in the decade and there’s something to be said that the Compton rapper has notched more No. 1 hits in 2024 than the rest of his decorated career combined. He’s also the first rhymer to have three No. 1 debuts on the Hot 100 in the same calendar year. 

Andrew Unterberger: Hot 100 for sure. He’s had Billboard 200-dominating albums before but he’s never blanketed the Hot 100 like this — to the point where he might even end up in the mix to have multiple No. 1s from the album before all is said and done. It’s crazy to see him so central to popular music right now, but obviously well-deserved.

2. GNX fell out of the sky on Friday at noon ET, with no advance warning. Do you think that promotional strategy ultimately helped, hurt or had no major effect on the album’s first-week performance? 

Kyle Denis: I honestly think it may have hurt the album’s first-week performance. With his run of diss tracks this spring and summer and a general elevation of his celebrity, Kendrick had millions of consumers ready to eat up whatever project he put out. I think giving people some notice, even if it was just 24 hours, would have resulted in slightly better numbers than a full-on surprise drop. A bit of notice would have allowed fans to mobilize and create their own listening experiences and made for a seamless DSP uploading process — GNX reportedly took over an hour to appear on streaming platforms for some users. These are small things, but they’re the kinds of moves that could have at least helped the album get closer to the 350,000 range. Not to mention, a pre-announced release date would have also given Team Kendrick time to get physical copies of the album available upon release – but that would also depend on when K.Dot finished the album. 

Angel Diaz: First of all, I’m sick of these surprise releases, man. I am begging for artists to chill out because they are making us lose our minds on a Friday and into the weekend. With that being said, as a fan, I love it and everyone I knew that’s not in this business were playing that album. You heard it at the barbershop over the weekend and out of car speakers, so yeah I definitely think that strategy had a major effect, especially for the casual fan seeing the chatter on social media and hitting play out of pure curiosity. The album being so good and having so much replay value also helped. 

Jason Lipshutz: The surprise release has become a tactic generally reserved for superstars… and since Kendrick Lamar is one of our biggest, the out-of-nowhere drop absolutely helped him here. The shock of GNX — no leaks, no heads-up, just a brand new Kendrick album to stream on your Friday lunch break — defined the pop culture discourse of that day, and immediate reactions began to bubble up on social media to keep streams high through the weekend. Not every A-lister could pull off that type of unveiling, but Lamar did here, and scored one of the biggest debuts of his career in the process.

Michael Saponara: I don’t think there was much of a major impact with the surprise release. To be honest, I kind of expected something along those lines from the elusive K. Dot rather than a traditional rollout. He only lost 12 hours so that resulted in a minimal lagtime in spreading the word that rap’s boogeyman had returned. Between the Drake feud and the anticipation from fans for a new project, there really was no wrong way for Lamar to deliver his next album. 

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think it really matters for its commercial performance — he could have released this album any which way and it still would’ve probably done about this well. But for maintaining the overall excitement level of his 2024, this was probably the best way to go.

3. “Squabble Up” debuts atop the Hot 100 this week as the top-performing song from the new album, but it has already been passed on the daily streaming charts of both iTunes and Spotify by both “TV Off” and “Luther.” Which of the three songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set?  

Kyle Denis: Of the three songs, I think “TV Off” will have the biggest peak, but I also anticipate “Luther” following a similar trajectory to that of “Love,” Dot’s 2017 duet with Zacari. “Luther” might not ever reach the top of the Hot 100, but I expect it to have impressive longevity and stay on the charts longer than any other GNX track. 

Angel Diaz: I love “Luther”, but I really hope the West Coast street anthems like “Squabble Up” and “TV Off” stand the test of time and continue to perform in the future. So, to answer the question, I’ll put money on “Squabble Up.” 

Jason Lipshutz: “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” are the album’s two turn-the-volume-way-up anthems, and while “Squabble Up” likely benefited from being placed second on the track list and gaining listeners’ immediate attentions, “TV Off” is the more enduring battle cry, thanks to the stronger K. Dot flow, positively nasty beat switch and the instantly meme-able “MUSTAAAAAAARD” moment. Who knows? Maybe once the holiday music onslaught subsides, Kendrick can kick off 2025 with another Hot 100 chart-topper.

Michael Saponara: I’m gonna go with “TV Off” as the winner here. It’s topped the Apple Music charts and spurred a ton of chatter on social media with endless meme-ability thanks to Kendrick’s pair of “MUSTARDDD” shout-outs to the track’s producer. Lefty Gunplay’s ominous chorus has also been going viral. We’ll see what kind of staying power the trio has at the top of the Hot 100, especially with rumors of a deluxe falling out of the sky from K. Dot. 

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah prepare for a lot of out-of-nowhere “MUSTAAAAAAAAARD” howls in casual conversation this holiday season.

4. Between his three No. 1 singles and now a No. 1 album as well, this is undoubtedly Kendrick Lamar’s biggest year on the Billboard charts. Do you think he ever would have had a year like this if not for the Drake feud that initially ignited it, or do you think he was due for such a legacy year at some point in his career regardless? 

Kyle Denis: I think he was definitely due for a year like this – and the DAMN./Black Panther period would have sufficed if this year had never happened – but I’m not sure he gets it in 2024 specifically without the Drake feud. 

Angel Diaz: I think he was due for a legacy year, but this is the way you do it in rap. This is the same thing Jay-Z did when he dissed Nas on “Takeover” the summer before he released his seminal album The Blueprint in 2001. However, Nas was nowhere near the level Drake was commercially, and Jay dissing him ironically resurrected his career while also placing Jigga on the throne. Rap really hasn’t had a power struggle for the crown since then. Did it benefit him? Sure. But he took the throne fair and square. 

Jason Lipshutz: This type of year was always lurking within Kendrick Lamar, a singular superstar with a nearly unanimous approval rating, but 2022’s Mr. Morale suggested that he was turning away from commercial prospects in favor of idiosyncrasies and self-examination. Maybe a course-correction was coming, but the Drake feud — and before that, the talk of a “Big Three,” placing Kendrick on the same field as his peers when he believed he was playing a different sport — helped focus his superpowers, and provoke a year-long assault against his naysayers, October’s Very Own included. GNX is not about Drake, per se, but the album punctuates the assertion that Kendrick has spent 2024 making: there is no competition.

Michael Saponara: To this level, I can’t say I saw that coming. He hasn’t been that same kind of commercial titan since DAMN. and that’s over seven years ago at this point. There’s an argument Lamar was due for a “legacy year,” but I think the Drake feud added kerosene to the fire and gave him the lane to become rap’s undoubted MVP for 2024. It’s the biggest rap battle in decades between two of the greatest to do it, so of course it’s going to have a profound impact on the winner. But again, I’ll say I was wrong in that if there was a hit record to come out of the battle, I thought that was going to be Drake. 

Andrew Unterberger: He might’ve been due for more of a commercial on cycle — since Kendrick has long sort of been on a one-for-them, one-for-me career path — but you have to imagine that he needed the Drake thing to take him to this. We’ve just never seen Kendrick Lamar get his blood up like this for an entire year before. It must have been something that was stewing in him for some time.

5. Is this the best year a rapper has had this decade? 

Kyle Denis: I’m going to say yes. Shoutout to Megan Thee Stallion’s 2020 and Doja Cat’s 2021, though! 

Angel Diaz: I think that’s fair to say, but going back a little further, we must remember Future’s 2015 run when he dropped Beast Mode, 56 Nights, DS2 and What a Time to Be Alive. Big Fewtch also had himself an impressive 2024 — with three Billboard 200 No. 1 albums — that was a bit overshadowed by Drake and Dot’s main event.  

Jason Lipshutz: Yes, because Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 combines great music with a great narrative — enormous singles, blockbuster collaborations and a no-skips album coalescing around a battle that’s heated, personal and entertaining as hell. His year has transcended stats and honorifics, and become a cultural phenomenon. It’s one that hip-hop fans are never going to forget.

Michael Saponara: Yeah, I can’t see there being much debate about that. Not only the decade, but let’s open that up to the century. Then you’re talking Drake’s ‘18, Ye’s 2010-11, Wayne’s ‘07-’08 and 50 Cent’s 2003 off the top of my head, and Kendrick belongs in that discussion. Three No. 1 hits, one of which flipped the script against rap’s pop deity to defeat him in battle, and an acclaimed album that popped up as a late contender for album of the year honors. Oh, and it’s possible he’s sweeping at the Grammy Awards a month into 2025 before heading out on a stadium tour. This was one for the history books, Dot. 

Andrew Unterberger: Hell yeah.