Chart Beat

You have to go all the way back to 1981 — when Eddie Rabbitt and Dolly Parton were both at the peak of their pop powers — to find the last time two country stars were simultaneously occupying the top two spots of the Billboard Hot 100. That is, until this week’s chart (dated July 1).

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Luke Combs‘ cover of Tracy Chapman’s 1988 alt-folk classic “Fast Car” climbs 3-2 on the Hot 100 this week, tying 2020’s “Forever After All” as the highest-charting hit of Combs’ career. Meanwhile, Morgan Wallen‘s “Last Night” continues its reign atop the listing, spending its 12th week at No. 1 — while its parent album, One Thing at a Time, also enjoys its 14th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart.

What does this moment mean for country music? And why is it happening now? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. For the first time in over 40 years, country songs occupy the top two spots of the Hot 100. On a scale from 1-10, how important a moment do you think this is for country music?

Kyle Denis: I’ll go with a strong 7. It’s been a relatively shaky past decade for country music as the genre bumpily transitioned into the streaming era. With undeniable Hot 100 success in the chart’s upper regions evading the genre for a few years now, concurrently holding the No. 1 and No. 2 songs in the country is a really big deal. I’d argue that country music and aesthetics have been very present over the past few years, although not necessarily in the way that the genre’s gatekeepers might prefer. Nonetheless, I think it’s important to note that these Wallen and Combs songs are performing well across consumption metrics. They’re balanced hits, and that’s probably the most important part of this historic week. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 6. I don’t think anyone paying attention to country music’s commercial muscle over the past few years would have anticipated a shrinking of the genre’s footprint if these two songs were not at the top of the Hot 100, but it’s easy to forget that, five or so years ago, country seemed a little lost when it came to streaming acceptance and mainstream visibility. “Last Night” and “Fast Car” clocking in at Nos. 1 and 2 on the Hot 100 crystallizes the shift that has taken place over the past half-decade, with new superstars like Wallen and Combs, greater stylistic differentiation in hits (as led by Zach Bryan and Bailey Zimmerman, each with recent top 10 hits), and a far greater presence on streaming and social media platforms. This is not a fluke – country music truly is on top.

Melinda Newman: I would give it a 9. It has taken two generations for Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs to do what Dolly Parton and Eddie Rabbitt did 42 years ago; that’s almost twice as long as Bailey Zimmerman has been alive. Wallen’s “Last Night” and Combs’ “Fast Car” stand at the same positions on the Country Airplay chart, making them legit crossover sensations.

Jessica Nicholson: An 8. Around a decade ago, some in Nashville circles were bemoaning the lack of development of new superstars within in the country music format. But since Combs’ debut with “Hurricane” in 2015 and Wallen’s with “Up Down” in 2017, each artist has had an exceedingly accelerated rise to their current status as stadium-headlining, chart-topping entertainers (in Luke’s case, he’s the reigning, two-time CMA entertainer of the year winner). At the same time, it’s notable that each of these artists has released music with a sustainable resonance for music listeners, given the sheer amount of music available to listeners now thanks to TikTok, streaming, etc. 

Andrew Unterberger: I think a nine is fair. There was a time not all that long ago where even one country song getting to the top two of the Hot 100 felt near-impossible — and certainly not without a big pop guest or a majorly crossover-courting sound. For two major country hits from arguably the two biggest stars in country right now to be the top two songs in the U.S. demonstrates how country music — like rap music five years ago and dance music 10 years ago — really is just pop music right now.

2. If you had to isolate one reason why the Hot 100 seems particularly amenable to country right now — after a nearly 20-year period where merely making the top 10 felt notable for most country songs — what would it be?  

Kyle Denis: “Old Town Road.” Walk with me for a second: Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cryus’ history-making country-trap smash was the preeminent country-rap hybrid song of the late 2010s, and it arrived alongside a larger racial reckoning for the genre in terms of honoring its Black roots and supporting its contemporary Black stars. “Old Town Road” was absolutely the right record at the right time, even if many people didn’t see the vision back in 2019.

Now, Wallen’s “Last Night” is at No. 1 — and in the song’s second verse, he employs an unmistakable rap cadence. In fact, hip-hop influences pop up across One Thing at a Time. Combs’ “Fast Car” is at No. 2, and the song is a cover of Tracy Chapman’s original, a self-penned folk song by a Black woman. These are country songs that are genuinely in conversation with the larger contemporary cultural and musical climate, and I think “Old Town Road” was pivotal in spurring that shift. 

Jason Lipshutz: It has to start with Morgan Wallen delivering a new, 36-song project during a period of time featuring very few huge new album releases. Although some listeners will always be hesitant to accept the singer-songwriter considering his past controversies, Wallen is very clearly the biggest artist in country music right now, with One Thing at a Time becoming the biggest album of 2023 after its predecessor, Dangerous: The Double Album, was the No. 1 album of 2021. He’s a supernova of a seller who’s going to boost his genre whenever he returns with a new project, and even though country music would be enjoying a strong year without him, his presence accentuates every facet of the genre’s overall consumption. 

Melinda Newman: In many ways, it’s a perfect meeting in the middle musically. A lot of country music sounds like pop these days and pop is going through a less rhythmic and more melodic phase. Also, streaming has broken down barriers since listeners only care about whether they like a song or not, not the genre, and there’s a lot to like about a lot of the country music coming out of Nashville today.

Jessica Nicholson: Over the past two decades, many modern country music artists — to varying degrees — have steadily incorporated sonic elements from the other most popular genres — hip/hop, pop, rock, and even folk, as we’ve seen with artists like Florida Georgia Line, Sam Hunt and Kane Brown, and now to artists including Bailey Zimmerman and Jelly Roll. Fusing those melodies and vocal phrasings that are familiar with even listeners who may not count themselves as die-hard country music fans, along with relatable story songs country music is known for, has made the genre ever-more accessible with a large swath of music listeners. 

Andrew Unterberger: Timing certainly helps. Hip-hop is in a bit of a dry spell and most of pop’s A-listers are either dormant or touring right now. That not only opens chart space for country artists, it opens up opportunity — as top 40 PDs and today’s-hits playlist curators need some big releases to cling to, and country (along with regional Mexican) is the genre producing them most consistently in 2023. Five or 10 years ago, any hint of country twang been a dealbreaker for a lot of those gatekeepers, but in 2023, listeners are a little more open (and programmers a little more desperate), so those old fences are coming down real fast.

3. “Fast Car” has been zooming up the Hot 100, at least by 2023 standards, and now matches Luke Combs’ career-best ranking of No. 2. What kind of chances do you think it has to become Combs’ first-ever Hot 100 No. 1?  

Kyle Denis: I think “Fast Car” has a solid shot of hitting No. 1. It’s all a matter of how long Wallen can keep up his lead and how much more room “Fast Car” has left to grow. If the song remains consistent, I could see it following in the steps of Billie Eilish’s “Bad Guy,” and spending a single week at No. 1 after months in the top three. 

Jason Lipshutz: I don’t love its chances, considering that Wallen’s “Last Night” remains a multi-platform behemoth ahead of it on the chart right now, and we’ve got a new Olivia Rodrigo single in a few days that will undoubtedly be vying for No. 1 soon enough. “Fast Car” could surge to the top spot on next week’s chart, but if it doesn’t, I doubt that this cover finally becomes Combs’ first Hot 100 chart-topper. 

Melinda Newman: A very good chance given the metrics for how the Hot 100 is configured, since “Fast Car” is soaring at both country and pop radio and streaming remains strong.

Jessica Nicholson: In terms of streaming numbers, it’s still behind Wallen’s “Last Night,” but given its recent surge in popularity in streaming and at radio (it was pushed to both pop and country radio) — it has a solid chance to become his first Hot 100 No. 1. 

Andrew Unterberger: It’s still got a pretty big gap to make up on both streaming and radio, which I sort of doubt it’ll be able to make up quickly enough — but then again, I’ve doubted “Fast Car” to this point and its continued to prove me wrong, so I certainly won’t say it’s impossible. (That said, speaking of cars, a certain Licensed Driver’s return to the pop world this Friday could also prove something of a roadblock for Combs in the weeks to come.)

4. Wallen and Combs make sense as the two artists to hold these two spots, as very arguably the two biggest artists in country right now. If you had to pick another country artist who might be able to match these commercial heights within the next couple years, who would it be? 

Kyle Denis: I think Bailey Zimmerman is well on his way there. He’s already scored two consecutive Billboard 200 top 19 albums in less than a year, and recently earned his first Hot 100 top 10 hit this past April with “Rock And a Hard Place” (No. 10). I’d also love to see Lainey Wilson hold it down for the ladies on the level of a Wallen/Combs. I think she can grow to that level within the next couple years. 

Jason Lipshutz: Jelly Roll, who’s on fire and seems to only be getting started. With a compelling backstory, genuine songwriting panache and a ton of momentum gathering from different sides of Nashville, Jelly Roll already had multiple songs on the Hot 100 without landing his true breakout hit yet. “Need a Favor” might get there, but I’d bet that another song from Whitsitt Chapel, or a future project, helps deliver him to the status of Wallen and Combs over the next few years. 

Melinda Newman: There are a number of contenders, as country music is exploding right now. Both HARDY and Jelly Roll have already topped Billboard‘s Top Rock Albums chart, so they’re one step away, though they may have to come with something a little less aggressive for pop radio. Both Bailey Zimmerman and Lainey Wilson are on meteoric rises that feel like they can’t and won’t be limited to country. But if I had to pick one, it would be Jelly Roll — since he already has rap and rock fans and has a mighty wind at his back.

Jessica Nicholson: Zach Bryan and Bailey Zimmerman have each already earned top 10s on the Hot 100 (Bryan with “Something in the Orange” and Zimmerman with “Rock and a Hard Place”). Each artist has a unique sound that is resonating with fans; Each first broke through via social media/streaming, and each ultimately signing with major labels to help propel pushes to radio. They are both hitting it hard on the road, with Zach headlining his own tour, and Bailey is out on Morgan Wallen’s One Night at a Time stadium tour. 

Andrew Unterberger: Pretty wild there are this many credible choices, huh? I’ll say Jelly Roll: He just seems like he’s on a rocket to the moon right now, and making all the right choices along the way. But a large part of me still hopes Sam Hunt, the original country-hip-hop crossover star — who came around a couple years too early (and maybe squandered a couple too many opportunities) to realize his full potential — still has that late-career-peak blockbuster in him.

5. “Last Night” has now reigned for 12 weeks at No. 1 — three weeks away from matching Harry Styles’ “As It Was” for the longest-running No. 1 of the 2020s. Do you think it falls short of that total, matches it, or surpasses it before all is said and done?

Kyle Denis: I think “Last Night” will surpass “As It Was.” The song is showing no signs of slowing down, and I’m sure there’s a remix or alternate version ready for release if another song proves to be stiff competition. There’s a solid chance that a song from Drake’s forthcoming For All the Dogs knocks “Last Night” down to No. 2 for a week or two, but I think Wallen will at least tie Styles’ record.

Jason Lipshutz: My prediction is a tie: three more total weeks at No. 1 to match “As It Was” before falling out of the top spot for good. Summer is just getting started, and I’d bet that the Hot 100 opens up a bit in the coming weeks to make room for new and old hits.

Melinda Newman: I have a feeling Taylor Swift and Ice Spice are going to kick him out of the penthouse pretty soon with “Karma,” so I think he’s going to fall short. But Morgan’s set enough records that I don’t think any of us need to feel too sorry for him — and there are plenty more singles on the album!  

Jessica Nicholson: Given the numerous records that Morgan has already broken with his songs and albums, even going back to his Dangerous project, I would not be surprised if he passes Harry’s mark. 

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say he comes up one week short, 14 weeks total. But a large part of it might depend on just how deep “Vampire” is able to sink its fangs into streaming and radio right away.