State Champ Radio Chart Beat
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More than 60 years after it was released, Lesley Gore’s rendition of “Misty” hits No. 1 on a Billboard chart, crowning the TikTok Billboard Top 50 dated Jan. 13.
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The TikTok Billboard Top 50 is a weekly ranking of the most popular songs on TikTok in the United States based on creations, video views and user engagement. The latest chart reflects activity from Jan. 1 to 7. Activity on TikTok is not included in Billboard charts except for the TikTok Billboard Top 50.
“Misty,” a jazz standard first penned by Erroll Garner in 1954 and recorded by Gore for her 1963 debut album I’ll Cry If I Want To, initially debuted on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 at No. 3 (Jan. 6) prior to its rise to No. 1.
As reported last week, TikTok usages of “Misty” mostly involves a trend where the user is shown without a feature (glasses, a certain hair style, etc.) and then with that feature. Though as a spin on what’s expected, the creator usually uploads a photo of them with a friend or family member with that feature (example: a friend with glasses) instead.
“Misty” has continued to jump in Billboard chart-eligible streams since its TikTok trend took off. In the latest tracking week for charts such as the Billboard Hot 100 (Dec. 29-Jan. 4), the track earned 330,000 official on-demand U.S. streams, a boost of 36%, according to Luminate.
At more than 60 years old, “Misty” is the oldest song to reign on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 since its September 2023 inception. It takes over from the previous oldest track, as “Misty” leads following a two-week rule for Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” which ascended to the top of the list during the holiday season amid multiple other Christmas standards’ chart appearances. Unlike the rest, Carey actually remains on the Jan. 13 survey, albeit at No. 46.
With the path cleared of holiday tunes, Nicki Minaj’s “Everybody” featuring Lil Uzi Vert rises to a new peak of No. 2, while Playboi Carti’s “Sky” makes its monthly return to the chart, this time at No. 3, due to its “wake up, it’s the first of the month” trend.
A trio of big movers reach the TikTok Billboard Top 50’s top 10 for the first time, led by Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me,” which vaults 13-7. One of the more recent trends using the song involves showing off medals with the caption “me if having the [insert thing here] was an award,” oftentimes the “worst ex.”
Project Pat’s “Choose U” jumps onto the chart as the top debut, ranking at No. 8. Its virality coincides with a trend where creators use the phrase “you’re the kind of girl they write books about” and then show a book cover, usually played for comedic effect.
And rounding out the top 10 as another new addition to the region is Sophie Ellis-Bextor’s “Murder on the Dancefloor.” The 2001 dance track has achieved newfound success after a synch in the new film Saltburn, and the craze has crossed over to TikTok, too, with many of the top uploads referencing the movie in some way.
“Murder on the Dancefloor” reaches the Hot 100 for the first time at No. 98, garnering 3.9 million streams, up 131%.
See the full TikTok Billboard Top 50, also featuring debuts from Coldplay, Kendrick Lamar and Drake here. You can also tune in each Friday to SiriusXM’s TikTok Radio (channel 4) to hear the premiere of the chart’s top 10 countdown at 3 p.m. ET, with reruns heard throughout the week.
It has not taken 2024 long to find its first new global superstar. Xavi, the 19-year-old Mexican-American singer-songwriter born Joshua Xavier Guiterrez, is surging on Billboard charts, notably climbing to No. 1 on the Jan. 13-dated Emerging Artists survey.
The Emerging Artists chart ranks the most popular developing artists of the week, using the same formula as the all-encompassing Billboard Artist 100, which measures artist activity across multiple Billboard charts, including the Billboard Hot 100 and Billboard 200. (The Artist 100 lists the most popular acts, overall, each week.) However, the Emerging Artists chart excludes acts that have notched a top 25 entry on either the Hot 100 or Billboard 200, as well as artists that have achieved two or more top 10s on Billboard’s “Hot” song genre charts and/or consumption-based “Top” album genre rankings.
Xavi’s bustling activity is due in large part to the success of “La Diabla” and “La Victima,” both of which are unaccompanied solo singles. The former shoots from No. 62 to No. 34 on the Hot 100 and the latter leaps 79-55. As the leading non-English-language song on the first fully post-Christmas Hot 100 of the year, “La Diabla” drew 12.7 million on-demand U.S. streams in the week ending Jan. 4, up 15% from the previous frame, according to Luminate.
“La Diabla” adds a second week atop the Hot Latin Songs chart, while rising to No. 1 on Latin Streaming Songs.
Both of Xavi’s breakout hits are making great strides on Billboard’s global charts as well. “La Diabla” is No. 2 on the Billboard Global Excl. U.S. ranking and No. 4 on the Billboard Global 200, while “La Victima” climbs to Nos. 17 and 14, respectively. Both are new in each chart’s top 20.
Further, Xavi debuts on both charts with “Poco A Poco,” with Los Dareyes De La Sierra, and “Modo Dnd” with Tony Aguirre. The one-after-another onslaught is reminiscent of fellow regional Mexican star Peso Pluma’s sudden surge on the global charts last year, when he amassed seven debuts between March and April. Peso Pluma himself scores his fifth top 10 hit on each global list, as “Bellakeo” with Anitta hits No. 6 on Global Excl. U.S. and No. 7 on the Global 200.
Even with all of Xavi’s success on the U.S.-based Hot 100 and Latin charts, three of his four globally-charting hits are higher on the Global Excl. U.S. tally than the Global 200. “La Diabla” and “La Victima” takes the Nos. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, on Billboard’s Mexico Songs ranking, while the former is also in the top 10 in Colombia and Ecuador.
Julión Álvarez y Su Norteño Banda capture their ninth No. 1 on Billboard’s Regional Mexican Airplay chart as “Buscándole a La Suerte” ascends to No. 1 on the Jan. 13-dated list. After seven weeks in the top 10, the song crowns the list with 6.7 million audience impressions earned during the Dec. 29-Jan. 4 tracking […]
Billboard has more than 200 different weekly charts in its menu, encompassing numerous genres and formats.
While established artists often compete for a spot on the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart and Billboard 200 albums ranking, which track the most popular songs and albums of the week, respectively, up-and-coming talents typically start off on genre-specific lists.
Hundreds of artists chart their songs and albums on Billboard’s rankings each week, but these five artists appear on surveys for the first time on the Jan. 13-dated charts.
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Vacations
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The Australian indie rock band has been releasing music since 2015, but as of this week, it’s officially a Billboard-charting act thanks to its single “Next Exit.” Released in April 2023 on No Fun Records/Nettwerk, the song debuts at No. 40 on Alternative Airplay (up 2% in spins, according to Luminate).
The song is the lead single off the group’s forthcoming third LP, No Place Like Home, due Friday (Jan. 12). The band released its first two albums, Changes and Forever in Bloom, in 2018 and 2020, respectively. Vacations, who is scheduled to perform at St. Jerome’s Laneway Festival in Melbourne next month, is comprised of Campbell Burns, Nate Delizzotti, Jake Johnson and Joseph Van Lier.
Ryan Larkins
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The singer-songwriter arrives on Billboard’s charts with his breakthrough single “King of Country Music.” He released the track in October on his debut five-track EP Meet Ryan Larkins, on Red Street Records. The song debuts at No. 59 on Country Airplay (up 41% in audience).
Larkins, born and raised in Nashville, began his career as a songwriter. Before this week he’d written one Billboard-charting hit: Cody Johnson’s “The Painter,” which he co-penned with Benjy Davis and Kat Higgins, has so far reached No. 12 on both Hot Country Songs and Country Airplay. He has previously written with the likes of Rhett Akins, Ben Hayslip, Tom Douglas, Tony Lane, Lee Miller, Tim Nichols, Craig Wiseman and Country Music Hall of Fame member Bill Anderson.
In February, Larkins will hit the road as the opening act on Priscilla Block’s Hey Jack Tour, which runs through May.
4Batz
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The up-and-coming R&B artist scored his first Billboard chart entry on the Jan. 6-dated charts thanks to his breakout viral song, “Act II: Date @ 8,” and now he lands his second with “Act I: Stickerz 99.”
“Date @ 8” debuted at No. 16 on Hot R&B Songs, and it jumps to No. 11 in its second week with 3.8 million official U.S. streams (up 59%). It also enters Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs at No. 36. “Stickerz 99” starts at No. 25 on Hot R&B Songs with 1.7 million streams (up 30%). 4Batz concurrently arrives at No. 23 on Emerging Artists.
TikTok has been central to both songs’ gains. “Date @ 8” has soundtracked over 30,000 clips on the platform to date, while “Stickerz 99” has been used in over 3,000 videos. The songs are 4Batz’s only releases on streaming services so far.
Oscar Ortiz
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The Mexican artist debuts on Billboard’s charts with his new collaboration with Edgardo Nuñez, “First Love.” Released Dec. 11 via Genesis/BadSin Records, the single debuts at No. 46 on Hot Latin Songs with 2 million streams.
Ortiz released his first song on streaming services, “Anillos” with Oscar Maydon, in April 2023. Since then, he’s released several other tracks, as well as the five-song EP 23/7 in August.
Ortiz’s brother, Gerardo Ortiz, has achieved numerous successes on Billboard’s charts, dating to his arrival in 2010: 30 hits on Hot Latin Songs and 33 on Regional Mexican Airplay — including 12 No. 1s on the latter. He has also logged 11 titles on Top Latin Albums, including six No. 1s.
In a 2021 interview with Billboard, Gerardo said that he often turns to Oscar as a springboard for new ideas. “I’m more in tune with my brothers who are musicians. I have a piano in my house, and [Oscar] will start playing his own stuff and I start singing some of my new stuff,” Gerardo said, adding that Oscar has also written some of his hits. “It’s great because they give me honest feedback. They’re not afraid to tell me how they really feel about something I’ve written.”
Princess Superstar
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The New York City-based DJ/rapper notches her first chart appearance thanks to her 17-year-old collaboration with the Dutch DJ Mason, “Perfect (Exceeder).” The song, released in 2006 on Armada Music, debuts at No. 12 on Dance/Electronic Songs with 1.5 million streams (up 76%).
The song’s new buzz can be attributed to its inclusion in the film Saltburn. The track has also begun generating attention on TikTok, where it has been used in over 27,000 clips to date. A separate mix has soundtracked 10,000 videos. In total, 10 mixes of the song appear on streaming services.
While this marks the first U.S. chart entry for Princess Superstar, she reached No. 11 on the Official UK Singles Chart in 2002 with her song “Bad Babysitter.” She has released eight solo LPs in her career, dating to the mid-‘90s, most recently with These Are the Magic Days in 2018. She has also collaborated with Grandmaster Flash, Moby and The Prodigy, among others.
By almost every metric, the music business in 2023 has been defined by Taylor Swift and Morgan Wallen. Collectively, they have led the Billboard 200 and the Hot 100 for 23 of the 52 weeks of the year, with Swift topping Billboard’s year-end Top Artists chart and Wallen ruling both the year-end Billboard 200 Albums and Hot 100 Songs charts with One Thing at a Time and “Last Night,” respectively.
Combined, the two recording artists have an astounding 2.49% in overall U.S. album consumption unit market share, according to Luminate. (Year-to-year percentages are based on data from Dec. 29, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.) Their domination underscores a year of explosive growth for country — of the two rerecorded albums Swift released in 2023, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) qualified in the genre — which is up 21.8% year over year. That’s almost double the 12.6% year-to-year growth of recorded music overall for the same period and nearly five times the 4.8% increase the genre had from 2021 to 2022.
Country music accounted for 8.40% of the recorded-music market in 2023, up from 7.76% the year prior — and Swift and Wallen weren’t the only acts fueling those gains. Hit albums by Zach Bryan, Luke Combs and Bailey Zimmerman helped country’s current market share — defined as releases that arrived within the past 18 months — surge from 7.97% to 10.37% year over year, a 30% gain. And while that’s only good enough for third place when the genres are ranked by current market share, No. 1 hip-hop and No. 2 pop both fell year over year: the former from 26.72 % to 22.32%, the latter from 13.07% to 11.13%.
Country’s growth almost outstripped Latin music’s strides. Which isn’t to say Latin had a down year — the genre grew 21.9% year over year, the third-highest mark in the industry, largely due to the mainstream success of such new acts as Peso Pluma and Eslabon Armado, and its volume growth (13.5 million units year over year) bested that of pop (11.6 million). In 2021, Latin’s share of the overall industry was 6.33%; in 2023 that number has jumped to 6.86%, and its 37.8 billion on-demand streams for current releases is the third-highest among genres.
R&B/Hip-Hop Slips Again
R&B/hip-hop remains firmly entrenched as the No. 1 U.S. genre with 25.27% of the market, largely because of its outsize percentage of on-demand streams. (The genre accounts for more than one in four streams.) But some metrics indicate that hip-hop’s dominance — it commanded nearly 30% of the overall market in 2020 — may be waning.
The genre’s market share has dipped every year since that 2020 peak, as has its share of on-demand streams, which stood at 30.11% in 2021 and is now at 26.63%. Current consumption of R&B/hip-hop has also slipped 7.4% from 2022 to 2023 and is down in every format for the same period — including the genre’s strong suit, streams, which dropped 7.0% to 93.2 billion. Despite No. 1 Billboard 200 releases from Travis Scott, Drake and Rod Wave, among others, hip-hop albums have continued to lose share since the midyear headlines that the genre had not produced any full-length chart-toppers. That said, its 93.2 billion current streams is more than double the 38.8 billion racked up by 2023’s second-place genre, pop, which sustained overall growth this year. And while R&B/hip-hop’s overall growth, at 5.9%, was 10th among genres, it finished third on that metric in overall volume, adding 15.6 million equivalent album units over last year, behind only rock and country.
Tipping The Sales Scales
While overall album sales have seesawed over the last few years, they have shown growth this year — up 5.2% after a down 2022. Driving sales once again is rock, which has a monumentally large share of the market: 41.47% of all album sales and 43.36% of physical sales. Those numbers are larger than the next four genres — R&B/hip-hop, pop, country and World music, in that order — combined and largely stem from immense catalog sales. Rock sales account for 47.50% of the entire catalog category — defined as music older than 18 months — a 4.0% year-over-year increase. Rock catalog album sales totaled 30.8 million units in 2023, more than the combined sales — current and catalog — of the next two genres, pop and R&B/hip-hop.
Latin music’s album sales growth is the inverse of rock. With just 0.57% of overall album sales in 2023, the genre ranks 14th out of the 15 core genres tracked by Luminate — lower than blues, jazz, classical and holiday/seasonal. Only new age placed below it.
Like hip-hop, Latin’s huge overall growth comes mostly from on-demand audio streams, but also a big chunk of the on-demand video streaming market, 10.0%, which is larger than its 6.86% overall market share. Pop is the only other genre on this chart where its market share of on-demand video streams exceeds its overall percentage by that much: 17.35% to 12.33%.
World Music’s Gains
Latin is just one genre of non-English-language music that occupies more and more of the mainstream U.S. music market. The umbrella genre of World music, which includes K-pop and Afrobeats, among other styles, has grown massively. In 2019, World music accounted for 1.69% of the overall industry; in 2023, that’s up to 2.73%, a 35.3% jump. That growth is most evident when looking at album sales. World music captured 6.93% of the market this year, with physical sales totaling 7.96% of that figure. The bulk of those sales is attributable to K-pop, which surged 88.8% year over year. Afrobeats also had a big impact on the genre, particularly in on-demand streaming, where it was up 54.3% year over year.
Titanic Taylor
Swift’s dominance of music and popular culture this year has been well documented. But how big is she in genre terms? With 18.89 million in album consumption units so far this year, her industry market share is 1.79%. If Swift was her own genre, she’d rank at No. 9 based on the data used here — just a few thousand units shy of Christian/gospel’s 1.76% market share and ahead of children music’s 1.11%. In 2023, Taylor Swift is bigger than jazz.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 20), there may not be a ton of suspense towards the top of the Hot 100 — with Jack Harlow, Taylor Swift and Tate McRae likely to be holding strong in the top three — but other rising songs are threatening to break into the top 10 for the first time.
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Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (SWIMS Int./Warner): One of the surprise slow-burn successes of late 2023, the big-voiced Teddy Swims‘ soulful crossover hit “Lose Control” continues to climb into the new year. “Control” spikes 48-12 on the Hot 100 this week — helped by streaming growth, as the song re-enters Streaming Songs at a new No. 10 peak this week, and also by impressive sales, with it rising to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart. (Plus, the track has already hit the top 25 on Radio Songs.) A top 10 Hot 100 placement seems in reach for Swims in the next week or two as folks continue to discover the song for the first time — it’s also currently No. 2 on Shazam’s U.S. top 200 chart.
Nicki Minaj, “FTCU” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): Minaj‘s Pink Friday 2 breakout hit jumped from 53-17 on last week’s Hot 100 (dated Jan. 13) after the yearly deluge of holiday songs finally abated, and remains one of the early year’s strongest performers on streaming, holding in the top 10 of both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily U.S. listings. The big question for it will be radio: While top 40 seems to have jumped on the Lil Uzi Vert-featuring “Everybody” when that song initially had the most momentum from the PF2 tracklist — it debuts at No. 38 on Pop Airplay this week — “FTCU” has been slower to find its footing there, which it may ultimately need to do to make its mark on the top 10.
Noah Kahan, “Stick Season” (Mercury/Republic): Speaking of songs debuting on Pop Airplay this week: Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan makes his second bow on the chart, following last year’s “Dial Drunk” with Post Malone, with his somehow-still-rising breakout hit “Stick Season.” The 18-month-old title track to his unstoppable 2022 album, “Season” continues to grow on streaming while now also impacting radio, entering at No. 37 on Pop Airplay and rising 54-19 on the Hot 100, passing “Drunk” (at No. 48 this week, after reaching No. 25 last summer) for his biggest hit as a lead artist now on the latter chart. If the momentum continues, Kahan’s first-ever Hot 100 top 10 berth could only be a couple weeks away.
IN THE MIX
Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA, “Rich Baby Daddy” (OVO Sound/Republic): While “First Person Shooter” with J. Cole and “IDGAF” with Yeat were the two most immediate hits from Drake‘s Billboard 200-topping For All the Dogs late last year, it appears that the most enduring single from the set will be the Sexyy Red- and SZA-featuring “Rich Baby Daddy.” The album’s most obviously hooky and upbeat highlight, “Daddy” returns to the Hot 100’s top 20 this week (52-16) after previously debuting at No. 11, and continues to regain ground on streaming — but is slipping a little on radio (21-29 on Radio Songs), where it may need to recapture its momentum to really make a push for the top 10.
Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” (Darkroom/WaterTower/Interscope/Atlantic): Eilish‘s devastating piano ballad peaked at No. 14 at the height of Barbie-mania, and hung around the Hot 100 throughout most of the holiday season, before finally falling off the chart last week. It’s back at No. 20 this week, while holding as a solid performer on streaming and radio, and now it has a new source of adrenaline: awards season. The song just picked up best original song at the Golden Globes, and is up for five Grammys in February, with an Oscar nomination and possible win the following month also seeming practically inevitable.
Chris Stapleton, “White Horse” (Sound/Mercury Nashville): Not many might’ve expected Stapleton‘s searing Higher lead single to hang around as a major chart contender through the new year, but “White Horse” has remained impressively resilient, sticking on the Hot 100 through the holidays and jumping from 56-18 on this week’s listing. As the song re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 23, radio may again be the ticket for a top 10 entry: “Horse” is just outside the top five on the Country Airplay chart this week, as the fiery song perhaps remains a slightly awkward fit on the genre’s traditionally genial airwaves.
Xavi, “La Diabla” (Interscope): You have to dig a little deeper in the chart this week to find Mexican-American breakout star Xavi — he’s at No. 34 with “La Diabla,” and also No. 56 with “La Victima” — but chances feel pretty good that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with higher on the Hot 100 in the months to come. With all sorts of early-year buzz and eye-popping forward momentum on streaming, it’s pretty hard not to compare the Arizona-born, Interscope-signed 19-year-old with another música Mexicana breakout star who started to burst around this time last year.
Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up column, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip. This week: Myriad ’00s jams take off on streaming thanks to their Saltburn usage, He Is We sparks the early year’s most unlikely viral dance trend and a former president’s co-sign helps out an indie staple.
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Pop and Indie Favorites From Two Decades Ago ‘Saltburn’ing Up on Streaming
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By now, you may have heard about one of the most fun Billboard Hot 100 success stories of the new year: veteran U.K. pop hitmaker Sophie Ellis-Bextor scoring a debut on the chart with the 22-year-old Gregg Alexander co-penned disco-pop gem “Murder on the Dancefloor.” Thanks to virality ensuing from its usage in the Emerald Fennell-directed 2023 film Saltburn, the song bows at No. 98 on the Hot 100 this week — the first-ever appearance on the chart for Ellis-Bextor, who reached the top 10 of the U.K.’s Official Songs Chart six times in the early 21st century.
But while “Murder” has gotten the biggest bump from the ’00s-set viral black comedy, it’s far from the only song to benefit from its usage in the film, as pretty much every other period favorite used in the movie is also way up in streams following its Dec. 22 bow on Amazon Prime. Mason vs. Princess Superstar’s 2007 U.K. smash “Perfect (Exceeder)” is another of the biggest Saltburn gainers, up 289% in official on-demand U.S. streams to over 1.4 million from the week ending Dec. 21 to the week ending Jan. 4, according to Luminate. Over the same period, MGMT’s psych-pop classic “Time to Pretend” is up 96% to 1.1 million streams, Bloc Party’s swooning rock gem “This Modern Love” is up 166% to 177,000 streams and Tomcraft’s barnstorming dancefloor anthem “Loneliness” is up 569% to 173,000 streams.
Even a couple absolutely unkillable ’00s staples see noticeable Saltburn bumps: Flo Rida’s Hot 100-topping “Low” is up 16% to 2.5 million, and the daddy of all ’00s indie anthems, The Killers’ “Mr. Brightside,” is up 15% to 5.2 million. – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
He Is We’s “I Wouldn’t Mind” Merrily Falls into Streaming Success Following Viral TikTok Trend
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Indie pop act He Is We has yet to impact a single Billboard chart, but that could very well change thanks to the viral TikTok trend powering their 2017 track “I Wouldn’t Mind.”
According to Luminate, “I Wouldn’t Mind” logged 1.08 million official on-demand U.S. streams during the period of Dec. 29-Jan. 4. That marks a staggering 294% increase in streaming activity from just four weeks prior, when the track collected a little over 275,000 streams during the period of Dec. 8-14. For each of the past three weeks, streams for “I Wouldn’t Mind” have increased by approximately 57%.
These massive week-over-week gains are due to a TikTok trend in which users execute Jersey club-inspired choreography to the song’s opening lines (“Merrily we fall / Out of line, out of line / I’d fall anywhere with you / I’m by your side”), yet another example for the TikTok generation’s penchant for stark sonic/visual juxtapositions. TikTok user @zaebriel first paired the dance with “I Wouldn’t Mind” in a Dec. 11 post that has since amassed over 2.4 million views. Four days later, TikTok creator @jerseyyjoe – who recently appeared in ScarLip’s “Blick” music video – posted his spin on the dance, garnering a whopping 16.2 million views and 2.3 million likes. The official “I Wouldn’t Mind” TikTok sound currently boasts over 130,7000 posts.
While He Is We has yet to acknowledge the viral trend on any of their official social media pages, new fans of “I Wouldn’t Mind” have already flooded the comments of their most recent Instagram post with lots of love for the surprise hit. – KYLE DENIS
Big Thief Gets the Obama Bump
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Indie rock stalwarts Big Thief‘s 2023 single “Vampire Empire” has experienced a sharp rise in streams in the past few weeks, thanks to an unlikely fan: Barack Obama.
The former president’s end-of-year playlists always spark internet chatter when they are posted — often because of the former President’s usually unnervingly hip, eclectic taste — and this holiday season was no different. Big Thief’s “Vampire Empire” was slated alongside other surprising indie rock gems like “Joiner” by Blondshell and “Younger and Dumber” by Indigo De Souza as well as more mainstream hits like Zach Bryan’s Hot 100-topping Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything,” Victoria Monet’s Grammy-nominated banger “On My Mama,” and Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar’s iconic team-up “America Has a Problem.”
For Big Thief, this surprising spotlight amounted to new listenership for the song, which was released on July 19 and had already seen some viral growth on TikTok. The week before Obama’s post, the track earned 825,000 official on-demand U.S. streams, but the following week it rose 193% to 1.59 million streams, according to Luminate. – KRISTIN ROBINSON
Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time closed out 2023 as the most popular album of the year in the U.S., according to music data tracking firm Luminate. The album’s lead single, “Last Night,” was the year’s most-streamed song by on-demand audio streams, while Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” was the most-heard song on the radio. Total music consumption in the U.S. – as measured in equivalent album units – increased by 12.6% in 2023. (View the U.S. 2023 Luminate Year-End Music Report.)
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See the year’s top 10 albums chart, along with other year-end rankings and overall industry volume numbers, below.
But first, the fine print:
Equivalent album units – for album titles and chart rankings cited below (but not industry volume numbers) – comprise traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). Each unit equals one album sale, or 10 individual tracks sold from an album, or 3,750 ad-supported on-demand official audio and video streams generated by songs from an album, or 1,250 paid/subscription on-demand official audio and video streams generated by songs from an album. Album titles and album chart rankings by equivalent album units do not include user-generated content (UGC) streams, but UGC streams are included in Luminate’s industry volume numbers. (UGC streams are not factored into any of Billboard’s weekly charts.)
For the sake of clarity, equivalent album units do not include listening to music on broadcast radio or digital radio broadcasts. All numbers cited in this story are rounded, and reflect U.S. consumption only.
Luminate’s equivalent album unit totals include SEA and TEA for an album’s songs registered before an album’s release, but during the tracking period of Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
Luminate began tracking music sales in 1991 when the company was known as SoundScan. Luminate’s sales, streaming and airplay data is used to compile Billboard’s weekly charts. Luminate’s 2023 tracking year ran from Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
Luminate is an independently operated company and a subsidiary of PME TopCo, a joint venture between Penske Media Corporation and Eldridge. Billboard is an independently operated company owned by PME Holdings, a subsidiary of PME TopCo.
Highlights from Luminate’s 2023 year-end data:
Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time was Luminate’s top album of 2023. It’s the second time Wallen has led the year-end list. He also was tops in 2021 with Dangerous: The Double Album.
On Luminate’s 2023 U.S. year-end top 10 most popular albums ranking, Taylor Swift has five of the top 10 titles – a single-year Luminate-era record.
Total U.S. album consumption increased by 12.6% in 2023.
R&B/hip-hop continues to hold firm as the top U.S. core genre by total album consumption; the world music genre – inclusive of the Korean pop (K-pop) genre – had the largest percentage gain year-over-year.
Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” tallied 1.015 billion U.S. on-demand audio streams in 2023 — the most U.S. on-demand audio streams a song has earned in a calendar year. It is only the second song ever to exceed 1 billion on-demand audio streams in a calendar year.
Yearly U.S. on-demand audio streams surpassed 1 trillion for the second time.
27% of all on-demand audio streams in the U.S. in 2023 were R&B/hip-hop songs, the largest share of any core genre.
Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) is the first vinyl album in Luminate history to sell 1 million copies in a calendar year in the U.S.
Swift sold more albums in 2023 than any other act, accounting for 6% of all albums sold, industry-wide.
The top 10-selling CD albums of 2023 were all by Swift or K-pop acts.
Total U.S. album sales grew 5.2% in 2023 – just the second year that album sales grew in the last 10 years.
U.S. vinyl album sales outsold CDs for the third year in a row. 2023 marked the 18th consecutive year vinyl album sales grew in the U.S., and the largest year for vinyl album sales since Luminate began tracking data in 1991.
47.1% of all albums sold in 2023 in the U.S. – across all configurations, physical & digital combined – were vinyl LPs. 57% of all physical albums sold were vinyl.
Total U.S. album sales for the year (physical and digital download purchases combined) grew by 5.2%.
Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) sold 1.975 million in traditional album sales in the U.S. in 2023 – the biggest-selling album of any year since 2015.
One Thing at a Time debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart dated March 18, 2023, and spent 16 nonconsecutive weeks atop the tally. That marked the most weeks at No. 1 for any album since Adele’s blockbuster 21 spent 24 nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1 in 2011-12. One Thing at a Time is the second Wallen album to be named Luminate’s year-end No. 1 album, after his previous release, Dangerous: The Double Album, in 2021. Wallen is the first artist to have Luminate’s year-end No. 1 album twice in a three-year span since Drake led the year-end ranking in 2018 (with Scorpion) and in 2016 (with Views).
Nearly all of One Thing at a Time’s units earned in 2023 were powered by on-demand streams of its 36 songs. Its collected tracks generated 6.657 billion on-demand streams in the U.S., equaling 92.5% of the album’s total activity for the year (or, 4.962 million SEA units of its total 5.362 million units). One Thing at a Time was also the most-streamed album of 2023.
One Thing at a Time sold 326,000 in traditional album sales in 2023 (making it the No. 13-biggest-selling album of the year). The set also generated 745,000 in individual digital track sales, equaling nearly 75,000 in TEA units.
2023 marks the eighth year in a row in which Luminate’s year-end top album is by a solo male artist. The last time a solo male didn’t finish at No. 1 was in 2015, when Adele’s 25 ruled.
One Thing at a Time’s 5.362 million equivalent album units earned in 2023 is the largest sum for any album measured in a calendar year since 2015, when Adele’s 25 tallied 8.008 million and was the year’s top album.
One Thing at a Time spun off the massive multi-format chart hit “Last Night,” which spent 16 weeks atop the all-genre Billboard Hot 100. The tune also closes 2023 as the most-streamed song by on-demand audio streams.
TOP 10 ALBUMS OF 2023 IN U.S., BY TOTAL EQUIVALENT ALBUM UNITS1. Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time (5.362 million)2. Taylor Swift, Midnights (3.209 million)3. SZA, SOS (3.172 million)4. Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (2.872 million)5. Morgan Wallen, Dangerous: The Double Album (2.179 million)6. Taylor Swift, Lover (1.875 million)7. Travis Scott, Utopia (1.782 million)8. Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (1.775 million)9. Taylor Swift, Folklore (1.612 million)10. Metro Boomin, Heroes & Villains (1.573 million)
Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023. UGC streams are not included in this chart, but are included in Luminate’s on-demand streaming charts (below).
While Wallen has a pair of titles in the year-end top 10, Taylor Swift looms even larger. Swift has five albums among Luminate’s year-end top 10 – the first time any act has placed that many albums among Luminate’s year-end top 10 since the company began tracking data in 1991. Previously, the most titles any single act had among the year’s top 10 was three, achieved by Garth Brooks in 1993.
On Luminate’s year-end top 10 albums ranking, Swift is found at No. 2 (Midnights, 3.209 million units), No. 4 (1989 [Taylor’s Version], 2.872 million), No. 6 (Lover, 1.875 million), No. 8 (Speak Now [Taylor’s Version], 1.775 million) and No. 9 (Folklore, 1.612 million). Just two of those albums were released in 2023: Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) and 1989 (Taylor’s Version). Midnights was issued in late 2022, while Folklore bowed in 2020 and Lover arrived in 2019. All of Swift’s catalog in 2023 was buoyed by her stadium-filling The Eras Tour and its film adaptation Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.
Swift also has five of the top 10-selling albums of 2023, five of the year’s top 10-selling vinyl albums and three of the top 10-selling CD albums. She’s also No. 1 on each of the three rankings. (See lists, below.)
TOTAL ALBUM CONSUMPTION INCREASES 12.6%: Equivalent album units increased by 12.6% in 2023, to 1.097 billion (up from 974.9 million in 2022). There were 28 albums that earned at least 1 million equivalent album units in 2023 – up from 19 in 2022.
R&B/HIP-HOP LEADS AMONG GENRES: R&B/hip-hop continues to hold firm as the top genre by total album consumption, with 277.27 million units earned in 2023 – equating to 25.3% of total volume (1.097 billion units) last year across all of Luminate’s core genres measured. R&B/hip-hop consumption increased by 5.9% in 2023 over its volume in 2022 (261.72 million). However, R&B/hip-hop’s share of total consumption decreased from 26.8% in 2022 to 25.3% in 2023. (R&B/hip-hop is an umbrella genre for Luminate that contains most titles categorized as R&B and/or rap.)
2023’s second-largest genre, by total album consumption, was rock with 212.42 million units (up 9.1% from 194.72 million in 2022). Pop music was third, with 135.32 million (up 9.4% from 123.72 million in 2022), country was fourth, with 92.19 million (up 21.8% from 75.69 million in 2022) and Latin was fifth, with 75.26 million (up 21.9% from 61.73 million in 2022).
In terms of the largest percentage gains among Luminate’s core genres, year-over-year, the world music genre had the biggest increase in 2023. The genre’s 34.1% gain last year (29.94 million units vs. 22.32 million in 2022) is inclusive of Korean pop (K-pop) music. (K-pop is one of the many music genres housed within the larger world music core genre.) The second-and-third-largest percentage increases in 2023 among Luminate’s core genres belonged to Latin (up 21.9%, to 75.26 million in 2023, vs. 61.73 million in 2022) and country (up 21.8%, to 92.19 million, vs. 75.69 million in 2022).
TAYLOR SWIFT’S ‘1989 (TAYLOR’S VERSION)’ IS 2023’s TOP-SELLING ALBUM: Taylor Swift’s most recent release, and her fourth re-recorded project, 1989 (Taylor’s Version), was 2023’s top-selling album in the U.S., with 1.975 million copies sold across all configurations (physical and digital combined: CD, vinyl LP, cassette, digital download album). See the top 10-selling albums, below.
TOP 10-SELLING ALBUMS OF 2023 IN U.S. (PHYSICAL & DIGITAL SALES COMBINED)1. Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (1.975 million)2. Taylor Swift, Midnights (973,000)3. Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (908,000)4. Travis Scott, Utopia (575,000)5. Stray Kids, 5-STAR (526,000)6. Taylor Swift, Folklore (466,000)7. TOMORROW X TOGETHER, The Name Chapter: TEMPTATION (444,000)8. Taylor Swift, Lover (425,000)9. Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (404,000)10. Stray Kids, ROCK-STAR (229,000)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
With 1.975 million copies sold, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) is the biggest-selling album of any year since 2015, when Adele’s 25 sold 7.441 million copies. An album by Swift has been the year’s top-seller in six of the last 10 years: 1989 (Taylor’s Version) in 2023, Midnights in 2022, Folklore in 2020, Lover in 2019, Reputation in 2017 and 1989 in 2014. She also had the top-seller in 2009 with Fearless. Swift is the only act to have the top-selling album of the year at least seven times since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991.
1989 (Taylor’s Version) was also the top-selling vinyl LP of 2023 (1.014 million sold) and the top-selling CD album of the year (800,000 sold). 1989 (Taylor’s Version) is the first album to sell a million copies on vinyl in a calendar year since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991.
Sales of 1989 (Taylor’s Version) were bolstered by its availability across 15 physical configurations: five color vinyl variants, eight CD editions and two cassette albums. Further, of the five vinyl variants, Target carried a color edition that includes one bonus track (“Sweeter Than Fiction”). The set was also issued in two download editions – a standard 21-song version and a deluxe 22-track edition which adds a re-recorded version of the album’s “Bad Blood,” featuring Kendrick Lamar.
Swift, like many acts, leaned into creating additional versions of an album for purchase by superfans. All of the top 10-selling albums of 2023 were aided by their availability across multiple iterations, including many that contained collectible branded merchandise or color vinyl.
Swift by far sold the most albums of any act in 2023 in the U.S., as her collected catalog sold 6.172 million copies (across all configurations, physical and digital combined). Her sales accounted for 6% of all album sales last year across all albums by all artists. The second-biggest selling act, in terms of album sales in 2023, was K-pop group Stray Kids with 1.205 million copies sold.
TOTAL U.S. ALBUM SALES INCREASE BY 5.2%: Total U.S. album sales increased by 5.2% in 2023 to 105.32 million copies sold (up from 100.09 million in 2022). 2023 marked just the second year album sales increased in the last 10 years, following 2021. Album sales declined in every year from 2012-20, and again in 2022, as fans increasingly adopt streaming services as a means to consume music.
Total U.S. physical album sales (CD, vinyl LP, cassette, etc.) increased by 8.9% to 87 million in 2023 (up from 79.89 million in 2022). Digital album sales declined by 9.3% to 18.32 million in 2023 (down from 20.2 million in 2022).
VINYL REIGNS: For the third consecutive year, and the third year since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991, vinyl albums outsold CD albums in the U.S. Vinyl once again is the leading configuration for album purchases for the third year in a row.
Vinyl was the dominant configuration for album purchases in the U.S. up until the early 1980s. After that, cassettes took hold until the early 1990s, when the CD configuration blossomed and remained king until 2021, when vinyl retook the top slot.
49.61 million vinyl albums were sold in 2023 (up 14.2% from 43.46 million in 2022). 2023 marked the 18th consecutive year vinyl album sales grew in the U.S., and the largest year for vinyl album sales since Luminate began tracking data in 1991.
TOP 10-SELLING VINYL ALBUMS OF 2023 IN U.S.1. Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (1.014 million)2. Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (510,000)3. Taylor Swift, Midnights (492,000)4. Travis Scott, Utopia (373,000)5. Taylor Swift, Folklore (308,000)6. Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (267,000)7. Taylor Swift, Lover (256,000)8. Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (215,000)9. Fleetwood Mac, Rumours (206,000)10. Lana Del Rey, Born to Die (192,000)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
The top-selling vinyl album of 2023 is Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) with 1.014 million sold. That marks the largest yearly sales total for a vinyl album, and the first vinyl set to sell a million in a calendar year, since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991. The effort also scored the largest sales week for a vinyl set since 1991 when it debuted with 693,000 copies sold in its first week.
Swift closed 2023 with five of the top 10-selling vinyl albums. Further, her catalog of albums sold 3.484 million copies on vinyl in 2023 – the most of any artist. (Lana Del Rey was the second-biggest selling act on vinyl in 2023, with 646,000 sold.) Swift’s vinyl sales accounted for 7% of the industry’s total vinyl album sales in 2023.
Vinyl album sales comprised 47.1% of all album sales in the U.S. in 2023 (49.61 million of 105.32 million). Vinyl LPs accounted for 57% of all physical album sold last year (49.61 million of 87 million). Both sums are Luminate-era records for vinyl’s share of the album sales market in the U.S.
In 2023 a total of 99 albums each sold at least 50,000 copies on vinyl – up from 88 in 2022. Comparatively, 65 albums on the CD configuration sold at least 50,000 copies in 2023 (up from 56 in 2022).
CD ALBUM SALES INCREASE, SWIFT & K-POP DOMINATE: 36.83 million CD albums were sold in 2023 (up 2.7% compared to 35.87 million in 2022), making it the second-most popular configuration for album purchases.
The top 10-selling CD albums of 2023 are comprised entirely of releases by Swift and K-pop artists. All profit from their availability across multiple collectible editions for superfans.
Swift sold the most CD albums in 2023, with 1.985 million copies sold across her entire catalog of titles. Stray Kids wrap as the No. 2-seller on CD, with 1.188 million sold. Swift’s CD sales represented 5.4% of all CD albums sold in 2023, industry-wide.
TOP 10-SELLING CD ALBUMS OF 2023 IN U.S.1. Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (800,000)2. Stray Kids, 5-STAR (520,000)3. TOMORROW X TOGETHER, The Name Chapter: TEMPTATION (442,000)4. Stray Kids, ROCK-STAR (381,000)5. NewJeans, 2nd EP Get Up (332,000)6. TWICE, Ready to Be (303,000)7. SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEEN 10th Mini Album Fml (288,000)8. Taylor Swift, Midnights (276,000)9. Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (267,000)10. Jung Kook, Golden (244,000)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
Digital album sales were the third-most popular configuration in 2023 for album purchases, and the category dropped by 9.3% to 18.32 million (down from 20.2 million in 2022). The top-selling digital album of 2023 was Swift’s Midnights, with 201,000 downloads sold. Swift additionally was the top-selling artist in terms of digital albums in 2023, with 667,000 downloads sold. Morgan Wallen was the second-biggest-selling artist in terms of download albums, with 187,000 sold. Swift’s digital sales presented 3.6% of all download albums sold, industry-wide.
CASSETTE SALES STEADY: After cassette album sales jumped 28% in 2022, the niche configuration mostly stayed steady in 2023, slipping just 0.75%. In 2023, a total of 436,400 cassette albums were sold – a sliver less than the 439,700 sold in 2022. Cassettes were the leading album configuration for purchases from the early 1980s until the early 1990s. Today, cassette tapes are frequently sold exclusively on an artist’s webstore and in collectible editions. In 2023, the Billboard 200 chart saw No. 1 albums that boasted a cassette configuration from Blink-182’s One More Time, Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts and Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version), Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) and Midnights (which first led the list in 2022).
TOTAL STREAMING INCREASES 14.6%, ON-DEMAND AUDIO UP 12.7%: Total U.S. on-demand song streams (audio and video combined, inclusive of UGC streams) increased by 14.6% to 1.453 trillion in 2023 (up from 1.268 trillion in 2022). Yearly on-demand audio streams (again, inclusive of UGC) surpassed 1 trillion for a second time, with 1.249 trillion (up 12.7% from 1.108 trillion in 2022).
On-demand audio streams comprised 86% of all on-demand streams in 2023, with the remainder generated by on-demand video.
The R&B/hip-hop genre accounted for the most on-demand streams (audio and video combined, inclusive of UGC) in 2023, among Luminate’s core genres, with 26.6% of the year’s volume (387.09 billion of 1.453 trillion).
Rock had the second-largest share of on-demand song streams (audio and video combined, inclusive of UGC) in 2023, with 16.2% of volume (235.11 billion of 1.453 trillion). Pop was third with 12.6% (182.63 billion of 1.453 trillion), Latin was fourth with 8.3% (120.18 billion of 1.453 trillion) country was fifth with 7.8% (113.09 billion of 1.453 trillion).
As for year-over-year growth in total on-demand streams (audio and video combined, inclusive of UGC) among Luminate’s core genres, world music had the largest percentage growth, increasing by 33.3% to 35.97 billion, as compared to 26.98 billion in 2022. The respective second- and third-biggest increases, by percentage, belonged to the genres of dance/electronic (23.2% to 54.37 billion, up from 44.14 billion in 2022) and country (22.2% to 113.09 billion, up from 92.52 billion in 2022).
Looking just at on-demand audio streams for 2023 (inclusive of UGC), R&B/hip-hop was tops with 27% of volume (337.21 billion of 1.249 trillion). Rock (17%; 211.72 billion of 1.249 trillion), pop (11.8%; 147.11 billion of 1.249 trillion), country (8.5%; 106.28 billion of 1.249 trillion) and Latin (8%; 99.71 billion of 1.249 trillion) were Nos. 2-5 for 2023, respectively, as they were in 2022 and 2021.
The genres that saw the largest percentage growth in year-over-year on-demand audio streams (inclusive of UGC) were world music (up 26.2% to 27.52 billion, up from 21.8 billion in 2022), Latin (up 24.1% to 99.71 billion, up from 80.34 billion in 2022) and country (up 23.7% to 106.28 billion, up from 85.91 billion in 2022).
Note: UGC streams are included in Luminate’s industry streaming on-demand volume numbers and its year-end streaming song charts. UGC streams are not factored into any of Billboard’s weekly charts.
‘LAST NIGHT’ SURPASSED 1 BILLION ON-DEMAND AUDIO STREAMS: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” was the most-streamed song of 2023 in the U.S. by on-demand audio streams (inclusive of UGC), with 1.015 billion – the most U.S. on-demand audio streams a song has earned in a calendar year.
“Last Night” is the second song to surpass 1 billion on-demand audio streams in a calendar year in the U.S., following Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road” (featuring Billy Ray Cyrus), which cleared 1.002 billion in 2019.
See the top 10 most-streamed songs, by on-demand audio, below.
TOP 10 MOST STREAMED SONGS OF 2023 IN U.S., ON DEMAND AUDIO1. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (1.015 billion)2. SZA, “Kill Bill” (802.60 million)3. Zach Bryan, “Something in the Orange” (656.07 million)4. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (634.42 million)5. SZA, “Snooze” (550.83 million)6. The Weeknd, “Die for You” (539.29 million)7. Eslabon Armado x Peso Pluma, “Ella Baila Sola” (526.34 million)8. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (525.51 million)9. Morgan Wallen, “You Proof” (517.58 million)10. Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (507.78 million)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023. Includes UGC streams.
DIGITAL TRACK SALES DECLINE FOR 11TH YEAR IN A ROW: Digital track sales declined for an 11th consecutive year, falling 11.9% to 133.88 million in 2023 (down from 151.9 million in 2022). The top-selling digital song of 2023 was Jason Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town” with 497,000 downloads sold. It was the second year in a row that no song sold more than a half-million downloads. Prior to 2022, it last happened in the early days of downloading, in 2004 (the first full year of the iTunes Store, which launched in mid-2003). Further, 2023 marks the second year in a row that no song sold 1 million copies. Before 2022, the industry last had a year without a million-selling download in 2005.
TOP 10-SELLING DIGITAL SONGS OF 2023 IN U.S.1. Jason Aldean, “Try That in a Small Town” (497,000)2. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (428,000)3. Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” (358,000)4. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (302,000)5. Jimin, “Like Crazy” (296,000)6. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (251,000)7. Jung Kook featuring Latto, “Seven” (228,000)8. Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (181,000)9. Jung Kook, “Standing Next to You” (163,000)10. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (159,000)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022 through Dec. 28, 2023.
CYRUS’ ‘FLOWERS’ BLOOMED ON RADIO: Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” was tops on radio in 2023, with 3.919 billion audience impressions earned across all monitored radio stations in the U.S. Audience impressions are measured by cross-referencing plays with Nielsen Audio audience data – i.e., a play of a song on a top-rated New York station at 8 a.m. on a Monday has more listeners (audience) than an overnight weekend play in a smaller city.
TOP 10 RADIO SONGS OF 2023 IN U.S. (BASED ON AUDIENCE IMPRESSIONS)1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (3.919 billion)2. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (3.643 billion)3. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage, “Creepin’” (3.529 billion)4. The Weeknd, “Die for You” (2.628 billion)5. SZA, “Kill Bill” (2.623 billion)6. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (2.491 billion)7. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha, “I’m Good (Blue)” (2.448 billion)8. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (2.435 billion)9. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (2.358 billion)10. Harry Styles, “As It Was” (2.199 billion)Source: Luminate, for the tracking period Dec. 30, 2022, through Dec. 28, 2023.
With the holiday rush finally clearing up on the Billboard Hot 100 — all the dozens of Christmas songs that appeared on the chart last week (dated Jan. 6) fall off completely this week, including nine of the song’s in that week’s top 10 — we can finally get a bit of a picture as to how early 2024 is going to go on the listing.
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Jack Harlow‘s “Lovin on Me,” the most recent song to hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 before the Yuletide swarm, returns to the top spot this week, followed by fellow 2023 chart-topper “Cruel Summer.” Meanwhile, three songs hit new peaks inside the top 10 — Tate McRae’s “Greedy” (No. 3), Tyla’s “Water” (No. 7) and Doja Cat’s “Agora Hills” (No. 10) — and double-digit debuts and re-entries flood the chart to replace the departed holiday tunes.
How long will Harlow’s smash dominate the chart? And what might be the most viable threat to it in the weeks to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. So far this decade, there’s been one song every year that’s sort of lorded over the Hot 100 for the majority of the winter — “The Box” in 2020, “Drivers License” in 2021, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” in 2022 and “Flowers” in 2023. Do you believe that Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” (No. 1 both the week before and now the week after the holiday rush) is going to be that song for 2024?
Rania Aniftos: My gut is saying yes, depending on how Ariana Grande’s upcoming “Yes, And?” does upon its arrival. The winter always has a slowdown in music releases, which is why Harlow’s track might stick around — but I really think Grande is coming in for the 2024 title, especially with all the buzz about her new relationship in the news.
Katie Atkinson: It’s possible, but I would give the edge to the new songs coming this Friday from Ariana Grande and Lil Nas X. After all, “Drivers License” and “Flowers” both came out in early January (Jan. 8 and 12, respectively), so there’s a real opportunity for one of those new songs — by artists with reliable Hot 100 track records – to dominate in the same way. We’ll have to wait and see if “Yes, And?” or “J CHRIST” has the juice.
Stephen Daw: Probably not, but not because it’s not a jam — as a Jack Harlow skeptic, even I can’t deny that “Lovin on Me” is fun and catchy as hell. But I think there are two problems for Jack here: momentum and track record. “Lovin on Me” was having a moment before the Christmas season kicked in, and it is certainly back to cultural dominance now that Mariah and Brenda Lee don’t stand in its way. But the second a buzzier 2024 release comes along (more on that later), I don’t see this song picking up the steam it lost out on thanks to the yuletide chart disruption.
Moreover, Jack’s songs have a tendency to hit the top of the charts and then slowly move downward shortly after (“First Class” kept the spot for three weeks, while “Industry Baby” topped the chart for just one week). This song will certainly be a top 40 mainstay for months to come, but with gargantuan artists gearing up to release new singles this month, I’m not “Lovin” Young J-A-C-K’s chances at maintaining a No. 1 streak.
Kyle Denis: I think so! The closest competitors to “Lovin on Me” are probably Tate McRae’s “Greedy” and Tyla’s “Water,” but both artists have already started to shift their attention to their follow-up singles. Furthermore, “Lovin on Me” is tailor-made for crossover radio success, which will only help with its longevity on the Hot 100. Not to mention, there is still ample time for more live performances and a remix (or two!).
Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like Harlow’s only real competition here hasn’t been released yet. “Lovin” remained steady all through throughout the holidays — no small feat — and is still leading the pack two months into its lifespan, which are usually strong signs a song is gonna stick around for a long, long time. But with new Ariana Grande and Lil Nas X singles on the horizon — and now a new 21 Savage album as well — it’s gonna have its work cut out for it protecting against challengers to the throne.
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2. Three songs hit new peaks in the top 10 this week: Tate McRae’s “Greedy” (No. 3) Tyla’s “Water” (No. 7) and Doja Cat’s “Agora Hills” (No. 10). Which song do you think will stick around the chart’s top tier the deepest into 2024?
Rania Aniftos: “Greedy” for the win! I genuinely think Tate McRae’s star journey is just getting beginning, and as her pop star status grows, her hits will continue to endure. She’s also heading out on tour this spring, which will surely encourage revisits to songs like “Greedy.”
Katie Atkinson: My money is on “Water.” Tyla got her biggest U.S. look yet when she was one of only five Times Square performers on Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve With Ryan Seacrest, so this new peak comes after that mainstream moment. After Wizkid’s “Essence” peaked in 2021 and Rema’s “Calm Down” peaked last year, maybe Tyla can usher in 2024 with a major Afrobeats hit and keep them coming throughout the year.
Stephen Daw: It’s gonna be Tate. With a steadily rising profile for Tate and a tried-and-true pop sound that fits in the pantheon of enduring hits, it feels like “Greedy” is going to be here for a while. “Agora Hills” is a killer song, but with her album cycle well and truly over and only a small European leg of her tour set for this summer, I don’t see Doja climbing this “Hill” much higher. I think the only thing that could help “Water” stick around longer than “Greedy” would be a win at the 2024 Grammys — and even that might not be enough.
Kyle Denis: My money is on Doja Cat’s “Agora Hills.” Doja’s singles tend to stick around on the Hot 100 for a long time – she has four songs that have spent at least 40 weeks on the chart – and “Hills” hasn’t even hit the top 10 on Pop Airplay yet, unlike “Greedy.” Another advantage “Hills” may have over “Water” is its crossover appeal, Doja will get play from rhythmic, top 40 and hip-hop stations which should only bolster the song’s longevity. Couple that with her consistent on-demand streaming success, and Doja could be looking at another 40-plus-week Hot 100 hit.
Andrew Unterberger: They’ve all got a shot, but “Greedy” just seems like one of those songs that radio will wring every last ounce of life out of — likely to the detriment of McRae’s Think Later follow-up singles, even. And there’s still a card left to play there in terms of a big-name remix, which could provide an extra adrenaline shot if the song starts to lag sooner than expected. I’m rooting for “Agora Hills,” though, since it might be Doja Cat’s most intoxicating single to date.
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3. Way down the chart, Sophie Ellis-Bextor’s early-‘00s U.K. smash “Murder on the Dancefloor” debuts at No. 98, as the latest pop culture-boosted catalog hit to become newly chart-relevant in the 2024s, thanks to its much-memed use in Saltburn. Do you see it growing into one of the year’s biggest hits, Kate Bush-style, or will it fall back off within a few weeks?
Rania Aniftos: I think we’ll have some more time with “Murder on the Dancefloor,” especially with awards season heating up and Saltburn staying in the news, both at the ceremonies and on TikTok. Speaking of TikTok, tastemaker influencer Alix Earle has recently expressed how much she likes the song since watching the movie, and everything she touches turns to gold.
Katie Atkinson: I definitely see it climbing higher than No. 98, but I don’t think the Hot 100 top 10 is in its future, like it was with the No. 3-peaking “Running Up That Hill.” Stranger Things is just a broader pop-culture vessel than the over-the-top, adults-only Saltburn ever could be. That said, I think “Murder” has a better shot at hitting a new peak in the U.K., where it’s already rebounded to No. 8 on the Official U.K. Singles Chart. It originally topped out at No. 2 in 2001, so I think the most interesting story is whether it could climb to the very top in Ellis-Bextor’s native U.K. more than 20 years later.
Stephen Daw: Much like the mind of Barry Keoghan’s sadistic protagonist, I’m torn. “Murder on the Dancefloor” is the definition of a feel-good banger, it fits naturally within our current pop landscape and the deliciously weird memes surrounding it could very well propel it to further heights on the Hot 100 in the weeks to come.
The problem, though, is another one of momentum. Part of the reason that “Running Up That Hill” performed as well as it did was because it played a major part in a once-in-a-generation, monolithic series like Stranger Things. Saltburn has certainly garnered much wider attention since it became available on Prime Video, but its following is much smaller and more cultish than the Duffer Brothers’ behemoth show. Once awards season is over, I don’t think “Dancefloor” will be killing on the charts for much longer.
Kyle Denis: I’m on the fence on this one. We haven’t completely moved on from the recent wave disco-inspired dance-pop, so that works in the song’s favor. On the other hand, however, Saltburn will likely never amass the cultural capital of Stranger Things 4, so that could also stunt the song’s ability to replicate the success of “Running Up That Hill.” If “Murder” is unable to successfully transcend Barry Keoghan’s NSFW scene by the end of awards season, it could be light out on the dancefloor.
Andrew Unterberger: Perhaps my opinion will change if I ever actually see Saltburn, but I just can’t see this getting that much bigger. I’m a fan of Sophie Ellis-Bextor’s early-’00s output and it’s always fun to see a song this good getting its belated due… but irresistible as the song is, it’s just not “Running Up That Hill” (or “Dreams”) in terms of its timeless and enduring power. The big question, though, is radio — if the song continues to grow for a few weeks and folks don’t seem sick of it yet, will top 40 jump on the 20-year-old song as free playlist filler? Don’t know if I’d bet on it, but it’s definitely not impossible.
4. Who else outside the top 10 this week do you have your eye on as potentially being a big threat on the chart in the weeks and months to come?
Rania Aniftos: I beg the readers to continue listening to Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control.” He’s at No. 12 right now, and one of the most talented musicians and vocalists out there right now. He deserves all the success and I want to see that song climb up and become a mainstay in the top 10.
Katie Atkinson: With the amount I’ve heard it on playlists and radio, Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” feels like the obvious choice. It peaks just outside the top 10 (at No. 12) this week, and it has a lot of elements that make it feel like it could be a winter creeper hit.
Stephen Daw: Among the crop of candidates currently charting, I’m watching Nicki Minaj’s “FTCU.” Pink Friday 2 may be meandering down the Billboard 200, but “FTCU” has quickly become the most talked-about song off the album in the weeks since its release. Online hype has at least sustained itself, if not increased for the song, and with the right strategy (I notice that the song does not yet have an official music video), “FTCU” could easily earn Nicki another top 10 centerpiece in the coming weeks.
Outside of this week’s charts, the candidates for upcoming chart domination are pretty clear to me. Both Ariana Grande and Lil Nas X have hugely anticipated new songs out this week. Ari’s “Yes, And?” comes after the singer took a break from solo music following her prolific album from 2018-2021, meaning the masses are starving for fresh Ariana Grande content. And with the increasingly provocative promotions Lil Nas is putting out for his track “J CHRIST,” it’s evident that his pot-stirring shenanigans could very well lead to another massive hit for the rapper.
Kyle Denis: I’m definitely keeping an eye on Nicki Minaj’s “FTCU” and “Everybody” (with Lil Uzi Vert). Likewise with Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me.”
Andrew Unterberger: The people have spoken in terms of electing “FTCU” as the breakout hit off Pink Friday 2, and I think it’s only gonna get bigger throughout the first month or so of 2024. If it’s not in the top 10 two weeks from now I’d be pretty surprised.
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5. Make one bold Hot 100-related prediction of any kind for 2024.
Rania Aniftos: I don’t know how bold this is, but Harry Styles will be back (shaved hair and all) to take over 2024 with another “As It Was”-like Hot 100 hit.
Katie Atkinson: This is more of a hope than a prediction, but I really want more artists to have Hot 100 No. 1 hits this year. I love when the top spot is a revolving door, and in 2023, due to a couple of longtime No. 1s (namely Morgan Wallen’s 16-week stay with “Last Night” and Miley Cyrus’ eight weeks with “Flowers”), only 20 total artists had chart-toppers. Would it be crazy to ask for 26 this year?
Stephen Daw: Rihanna’s ninth album is coming this year, and all of the singles will replace each other at No. 1. You said to be bold!!
Kyle Denis: An all Portuguese-language Brazilian funk track cracks the top 50.
Andrew Unterberger: Ariana Grande ends up with three of the top 10 songs on the year-end Hot 100, including her first ever No. 1 on the year-end chart.
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