Chart Beat

After a series of delays, on Oct. 6, Drake finally returned with his long-awaited eighth official solo studio album (not counting mixtapes, collaborative efforts or “playlists”): the 23-track, 84-minute For All the Dogs.

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Like nearly every other project of Drake’s career, Dogs debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 this week — with 402,000 equivalent album units, almost exactly equal to the 404,000 for his 21 Savage teamup Her Loss last November. The set also charts all 23 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100, led by the No. 1-bowing, J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter.” However, despite its commercial success, the set has drawn mostly mediocre reviews from critics (and hip-hop pundits like Joe Budden), and a largely lukewarm online response from fans.

How happy should Drake be with his first-week performance? And will criticism of his music ever actually impact his commercial success? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.

1. For All the Dogs debuts with 402,000 first-week units — nearly 200,000 more than 2022’s Honestly Nevermind, over 200,000 fewer than 2021’s Certified Lover Boy, and almost exactly on par with last November’s Her Loss. On a scale from 1-10 — 1 being most disappointed, 10 being most elated — how happy are you with that first-week performance if you’re Drake?

Rania Aniftos: I’m going to say 5? Maybe? I really have no idea, because given how often he releases music, he clearly doesn’t care much about performance numbers anymore — he consistently tops the Billboard 200 no matter what.

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. As he continues to rack up No. 1 singles and albums — stacking his wins to stand alongside the all-time greats — Drake has transcended the need to be concerned that an equivalent album units debut is a little higher or lower than his previous effort. The first-week number for Dogs is a drop-off from that of Certified Lover Boy, but CLB was also his first official album in over three years, and arrived with greater hype — and in any event, the Dogs debut still cleared 400k to rank among the biggest bows of 2023. Drake’s focus should be on chasing chart history instead of first-week performances, but even so, that’s a darn good first-week performance.

Meghan Mahar: A solid 8.5. I would imagine that Drake and his team hope to break records with every album drop, but the fact that he is able to maintain this level of success is unprecedented in rap. Fluctuating performance over the past few years shouldn’t distract us from the fact that this drop was a monumental feat of its own. For All the Dogs outperforming Honestly, Nevermind proves that there is not only still demand for Drake, but a firm belief in him as both an artist and a pop star.

Damien Scott: I’d say I’m at a 7 or an 8. Drake is one of the few artists left who can make pop culture events out of their album releases. Despite how you feel about the qualitative nature of his albums, it’s exciting to know that when he drops a new project, nearly everyone is listening to it at the same time. The pessimistic view is that the monoculture is dead and the splintering of pop culture means we won’t have superstars with big week numbers like this in the future. I’d like to think that’s not the case, but just in case that turns out to be true, I think we should celebrate albums that bring us all together in that way. 

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 6. It’s a No. 1 and a decisive one, but for a star-studded 23-track set with him as the lone lead to pull up short of last year’s 16-track 21 Savage collab set — more a course-correction following the tepid response to Honestly, Nevermind than a full-on Drake album — I just can’t imagine he’s all the way thrilled about it. Still, who else in hip-hop right now could do 400,000-plus first-week units without even putting out a physical release? Is there anyone?

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2. Drake’s J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” was the best-performing song from the album in its first week, debuting atop the Hot 100  — Drake’s 13th No. 1, tying him with Michael Jackson for the most among male solo artists, and the first of J. Cole’s whole career. Which of the two artists do you think the milestone No. 1 ultimately means more to? 

Rania Aniftos: While I want to say J. Cole because it’s about time he topped the Hot 100, I’m going with Drake. It’s yet further validation that the 6 God can do no wrong when it comes to music releases. 

Jason Lipshutz: I can’t imagine how gratifying it must be for J. Cole to at long last have his name atop the Hot 100, after more than a decade of occupying a singular lane in popular rap music and getting close to the summit a couple of times. Cole is a superstar regardless of specific chart achievements — and maybe some will place an asterisk next to this one, considering that it’s a guest spot on a Drake song — but he has deserved a No. 1 single for a while, and I’m glad that he finally scored one here.

Meghan Mahar: I firmly believe that this No. 1 means more to J. Cole than Drake. J. Cole has been in the game for almost as long as Drake — he was opening for Jay-Z and Wale back in 2009 and already had 11 Hot 100 top 10’s of his own — so a No. 1 this late into his career is a rare and well-deserved testament to his work ethic. Drake is undoubtedly excited (and vocal on social media) about this achievement but I think he’s been plotting on this achievement for a long time. The truly groundbreaking moment from Drake’s POV is likely breaking Michael Jackson’s record.

Damien Scott: “First Person Shooter” hitting No. 1 likely means more to J. Cole than Drake simply because it’s somehow his first. I say “likely” because, as big as the achievement is, you get the idea that Cole has resigned himself from chasing chart spots. Looking at Drake’s past performance, it was only a matter of time before he tied MJ’s record — and it’s only a matter of time before he surpasses it. So, as good as this song is, if it wasn’t this one, it was going to be another. But for Cole, this song caps off an insane run of incredible guest performances: a run that has made many rethink his ranking within the “Big Three” of rap. In that way, this #1 feels like a coronation of sorts. At the very least, it ups the stakes for his upcoming album, The Fall Off.  

Andrew Unterberger: It probably should mean more to J. Cole — finally reaching the top spot after a decade of creeping closer and closer — but it almost certainly means more to Drake, who is as cognizant of his chart achievements as any major pop star in recent memory. (He’s even still smarting about “Sicko Mode” not counting towards his tally!)

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3. While “Shooter” had the strongest debut, it’s already been passed on most streaming services’ daily charts by the Yeat-featuring “IDGAF.” Which do you think will ultimately end up the biggest hit off Dogs — or do you think another cut on the tracklist will ultimately surpass both? 

Rania Aniftos: I’m putting my money on “First Person Shooter.” While both songs have a great beat and I can see them being favorites in Drake’s discography in the future, “Shooter” has those classic, viral-worthy lyrics that Drake is so good at. You already know we’re going to see lots of “Who the G.O.A.T.? Who you b–ches really rootin’ for?” Instagram captions over the next few months.

Jason Lipshutz: “IDGAF” is the one: not only has the Yeat collaboration taken off on streaming platforms in a way that indicates a long run in the Hot 100’s upper tier, but the track has effectively burrowed into my skull, that sample of Azimuth’s “The Tunnel” charging into the bleary synths and Yeat’s warbled boasts playing on repeat. As a gaudy, zonked-out showcase for both artists, “IDGAF” is as subtle as a sledgehammer but is undeniable as a headbanger. I will gladly have this song playing too loudly on my morning commute all fall long.

Meghan Mahar: I have a strong feeling that “IDGAF” is going to be the most streamed hit off Dogs, but that “Shooter” will ultimately have the best overall performance and lasting cultural impact. “Shooter” is a special moment for rap fans. Cole says it best: “This s–t like the Super Bowl.” However, Yeat’s fans are extremely passionate about supporting online, especially via streams. “IDGAF” debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Global 200 songs chart, so I think that there’s a clear chance it could rank higher than “Shooter” on next week’s Hot 100.

Damien Scott: After my first run through, I thought “Rich Baby Daddy” was the clear standout single and would be the one to run the score up. It has everything, on paper at least: a rookie of the year candidate, an artist coming off the best year of their career, and a fun faux-Miami bass beat. Maybe if it dropped at the top of summer, it would have fared better, but I think a good video could give it a boost. 

Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, the fact that it could be either of these songs and not “Rich Baby Daddy” — the lone song Drake has been involved with in the past two years that absolutely screams HIT SINGLE — shows you just how scrambled the hitmaking system has gotten in the TikTok era, both for better and worse.

4. While Drake’s reception from rap critics and gatekeepers (and even a large percentage of casual fans) seems to be getting worse and worse every year, he’s still yet to see any kind of sustained commercial downturn as a result. What do you think it would take for Drake to actually tumble from his chart perch — or is he essentially there until he doesn’t want to be? 

Rania Aniftos: I’m just repeating myself at this point but the numbers don’t lie. With 13 Billboard 200 No. 1s and 13 Hot 100 No. 1s, it really seems like it’s going to take a super weird musical decision on Drake’s part to knock him off his rap throne. He’s not fixing what’s not broken and that keeps working out for him. He still sells out tours, gets impressive numbers and waves to the haters from center stage at the most famous arenas in the world. 

Jason Lipshutz: Drake has hinted at taking some time away from the studio after a highly prolific two-year stretch, and if that hiatus lasts multiple years, I do think his commercial standing will be impacted by the time he returns. That speaks less to Drake falling out of touch with popular rap music, and more to the life cycle of any imperial run like the one he is currently on; these streaks of scoring huge singles and albums are simply difficult for any artist to sustain, let alone carry one for over 15 years. All stars begin to dim at some point, and we’ll see if Drake pressing pause will trigger any sort of fade of his blockbuster appeal.

Meghan Mahar: As we can see from him tying Michael Jackson’s record, Drake is more than a rapper: he’s a pop star. He is a cultural barometer of what’s cool in music, fashion, and more. His commercial performance isn’t going to be impacted by critics — and truthfully, I think the back-and-forth that Drake has with critics benefits him in the long run. I think that a true “tumble” would have to be caused by a public sentiment change toward Drake — he would have to be perceived as unlikeable and uncool for people to stop supporting him and I don’t foresee that happening anytime soon.

Damien Scott: No one stays on top forever. That said, if I’m honest, I have no idea what it would take at this point for Drake to not dominate the charts.  

Andrew Unterberger: The rap world probably will have to change before Drake does. Hip-hop has been in such commercial stasis so far this decade — there’s plenty of exciting things happening, just not so much that you really see impacting the top of the charts — that Drake has been able to mostly coast along with just minor tweaks (not counting the admirable but not entirely successful left turn of Honestly, Nevermind) to his production and personality. It’s gonna take a massive sea change in the mainstream, one that quickly makes Drake seem like a relic, for his commercial fortunes to be majorly affected.

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5. Let’s say that before his next project, Drake came to you for advice on how to get fans and critics back on his side, without risking an Honestly, Nevermind-like dip in commercial performance. What would you tell him to do?

Rania Aniftos: Is it weird to say that I wouldn’t tell him anything? Who am I to advise a consistent Billboard 200 and Hot 100 chart topper? Despite the Nevermind dip, he clearly did something right with For All the Dogs.

Jason Lipshutz: The reason why Her Loss is one of my favorite Drake projects? He’s rapping his ass off on it — largely to keep pace with 21 Savage, but still, Drake sounds excellent across that album, and I’d love to hear him replicate that approach on a solo effort. Don’t get me wrong, I’d welcome another joint LP with 21 Savage, but I’d tell Drake to listen to Her Loss, absorb how effective his flow sounds, and then chase that flow once again.

Meghan Mahar: For me, there are two main takeaways from the performance of Honestly, Nevermind: first, Drake’s fans will punish him if he deviates too far from the “old Drake” that leans more into his signature melodic rap and hype songs; second, Drake’s albums are most successful when they have more features. Drake’s reign will only end if he consistently disregards these learnings, and it seems like he took both into account when curating Dogs. I would tell him that his fans aren’t ready for him to try to reinvent the wheel, so a new creative direction should still have roots in what’s familiar.

Damien Scott: It’s tough for me to tell someone who sells over 400,000 first week to change anything. But, to answer the question, I’d refer Drake to “Sandra’s Rose,” track 10 on Scorpion. Over Preemo’s expert soul chopping, Drake starts verse two with “N—as want a classic, that’s just 10 of these.” I understand Drake must make music for everyone — he’s a megastar, after all, with fans of all ages, backgrounds, and tastes — but it’s clear he knows what people want. What if Drake co-opted the original plan for Jay-Z’s The Black Album: 12 songs, 12 producers? Drake could work with anyone he wants. It’d be fun to see what happens if he were to focus on just a dozen tracks with the best producers working today. 

Andrew Unterberger: How about this: Release an album with singles people actually like. I don’t even necessarily mean a trio of obvious chart-slayers like Scorpion‘s “God’s Plan,” “Nice for What” and “In My Feelings.” Think Nothing Was the Same‘s “Started From the Bottom,” “Hold on, We’re Going Home” and “Worst Behavior” — three totally different singles, working on totally different commercial levels, and largely beloved by fans for totally different reasons. What was the last Drake single that felt (or had an impact) like any of those? Certainly not “Slime You Out” or “Search and Rescue.”