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Wicked: For Good bowed in November to blockbuster box office numbers, and has already racked up nearly $270 million in the U.S. alone, according to Box Office Mojo — numbers that may even result in the sequel becoming a bigger hit that the 2024’s successful original Wicked.

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Will its soundtrack also threaten to surpass the original? So far, it’s closer to on par with the original, matching its No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 — with 122,000 in first-week units, down a tick from the 139,000 bow for Wicked the first — while notching four songs on the Hot 100, led by “For Good” (No. 43), the climactic duet between Cynthia Erivo’s Elphaba and Ariana Grande’s Glinda.

Are the numbers better or worse than we expected? And has the sequel or its soundtrack changed our opinion at all about the balance of Wicked‘s musical numbers? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. The Wicked: For Good soundtrack debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week, with 122,000 first-week equivalent album units. Are those numbers higher, lower or about what you expected for it?   Hannah Dailey: They might be a tiny bit higher than I expected, but overall, it’s more or less what I thought it would be. The Part 1 soundtrack was always going to perform better than Part 2, and a discrepancy of 17,000 between their respective first-week sales numbers isn’t a bad drop. 

Stephen Daw: That’s right about where I anticipated this would land. The first Wicked soundtrack — which contains a lot of the show’s most popular songs — earned 139,000 equivalent album units, so to have it’s sequel put up pretty similar numbers feels about right.  

Kyle Denis: This is about what I expected. A little lower than the first soundtrack, but still over 100k first-week units. 

Joe Lynch: About what i expected – higher, if anything. The first Wicked soundtrack did 139k in its first week, and it was never gonna outdo that — “Defying Gravity” is a Broadway all timer, probably the most beloved show tune introduced in the 21st century. Without a tune THAT big, 122k is very respectable for first week.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, this feels about right — just a shame it was timed against a new set by Stray Kids, a group that’s literally never missed the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200.

2. Much of the hype around the new film and particularly its soundtrack involves the debut of two new Stephen Schwartz-penned songs for the movie, the respective Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande showcases “No Place Like Home” and “The Girl in the Bubble.” Do they seem like worthy additions to the Wicked canon to you? Do you anticipate either becoming a new fan favorite?   Hannah Dailey: Are they worthy additions? Sure. But I doubt they’ll become new favorites, especially among longtime fans of the Broadway musical. I do feel as though I understand Elphaba and Glinda better thanks to the added tracks, but neither song comes anywhere close — lyrically or musically – to the thrill and magic we associate with most of the rest of the musical’s numbers.  

Stephen Daw: “No Place Like Home” and “The Girl in the Bubble,” while perfectly nice songs that do their jobs in the movie, cannot live up to the original Wicked songs. In terms of the plot of the second act, I think both tracks are at least effective at explaining both Elphaba and Glinda’s personal motivations in For Good — the problem is that both songs are pretty boring and so on-the-nose with their lyrics that it immediately takes you out of what’s happening both in the movie and in the music. I would be pretty surprised if fans of the musical adopted either of these songs as a new favorite, even with “Bubble” making its Hot 100 debut this week.

Kyle Denis: Both “No Place Like Home” and “The Girl in the Bubble” are incredibly boring. They feel like 2010s-era Disney soundtrack songs, and I think “Bubble,” in particular, suffers from haphazard editing in the film. I appreciate that both songs deepen and expand the motivations behind Galinda and Elphaba’s actions, but they both landed like duds in the theater. Cynthia and Ariana both sound great though, no surprise there! 

Joe Lynch: “No Place Like Home” functions really beautifully in the film, emphasizing what’s at stake and drawing a clear connection to our country’s slide into fascism. It’s also crazy to me there wasn’t a song called “No Place Like Home” in the original production. (Perhaps Schwartz felt it was too on the nose, but it lands perfectly thanks to Erivo’s touch.) “Bubble” gives Grande a chance to flaunt some serious range, but runs a bit too long without offering enough melody. It doesn’t seemed tacked on, but it’s no future show tune karaoke classic either. 

Andrew Unterberger: Nah.  3. The highest-debuting of the For Good songs on the Hot 100 is the title-track duet between Erivo and Grande, at No. 43. Does it feel like a defining / long-lasting rendering of the song? Do you anticipate a long chart run for it?   Hannah Dailey: I absolutely think Erivo and Grande earned themselves a place in the Wicked history books with their stellar performance of “For Good.” As for its future career on the charts, I predict it’ll have a similar trajectory to their version of “Defying Gravity,” which spent a respectable 10 weeks on the Hot 100 after debuting at a similar peak position of No. 44. 

Stephen Daw: It’s definitely one of the two best songs in the film (shoutout to Cynthia wailing her face off on “No Good Deed” as the capital-B Best Song in the movie), and both Ariana and Cynthia did a great job giving the song a slightly more earnest, sensitive touch with their vocal performances. That being said, while I think theater fans will point to this as a particularly good rendition of the song, I doubt it will have a massive chart reign. “Defying Gravity” is still the song from Wicked, and fans were truly obsessed (or “obsessulated,” as Glinda says) with Cynthia’s performance of that song — yet “Defying Gravity” peaked at No. 44 and remained on the Hot 100 for just 10 weeks. I doubt that “For Good” will fare much better or longer than that. 

Kyle Denis: I think their recorded version of “For Good” is only beat out by their live performance of it at Wicked: One Wonderful Night alongside Oz OGs Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth. A long chart run is more than likely out of the question — especially if some sort of radio edit isn’t released soon — but I expect Erivo & Grande’s “For Good” will be a defining rendition of the song within the Wicked fandom. 

Joe Lynch: Given that fans had the OBC version of “Defying Gravity” memorized to the millisecond, I was pleasantly surprised to see Grande and Erivo’s marvelous version find a permanent home in fans’ hearts. Now, I feel I’m more likely to see drag queens lip syncing to the movie version than the cast recording. I think the same will prove true for “For Good” — it’s a standout cinematic moment and a recording that fans will return to for decades. A long chart run, however? That would leave me, to speak Ozian for a moment, surprisified. 

Andrew Unterberger: I could see the song hanging on the chart through the holidays as the movie continues to gather steam, but life beyond that seems unlikely unless it catches particular fire on TikTok. It does feel like the recording will end up a fairly significant part of the legacy of not just the musical, but the two performers as well, though.

4. Some wariness about the Wicked movie being split in two was over the movie being traditionally thought to have a stronger first half musically. Does either the movie’s second part or its standalone soundtrack do much to combat that conventional wisdom, or does they mostly reinforce the musical’s top-heaviness?   Hannah Dailey: The best chance Chu and Schwartz had at changing Act II for the better was with the addition of the two new songs, but unfortunately, neither “No Place Like Home” nor “For Good” had the oomph needed to do so, in my opinion. At points in the Broadway musical’s second half where they could have injected some much-needed momentum on screen, the writers instead slowed things down even more with softer numbers that hardly stand out against the rest of the music in Act II, much less compete with the quality of Act I.  

Stephen Daw: It’s complicated — I think Wicked: For Good,  all things being considered, did a very good job adapting the musical’s second act for film. There’s needed expansion for multiple characters, beats included to help audiences understand our main characters’ motivation and the inclusion of iconic moments from the stage show that we would have been disappointed to miss in the movie (I’m looking at you, catfight!). 

But even with those additions and changes, Wicked: For Good still doesn’t really solve the “problems” in the second act, which has a lot to do with the music and the pacing. It’s still true that Act I is a better piece of musical theater Act II, in the same way that Wicked is a better movie than Wicked: For Good. While this version of the film is probably the best case scenario for a standalone movie of the back half of the musical, I still think that they could have made Wicked into one (admittedly long) movie musical, and it would have been better-balanced. 

Kyle Denis: The film did a much better job translating the stage show’s messy second act, but, truthfully, I just cannot bring myself to care about Nessarose and Boq’s whole thing. The music remains weaker in the second half — and the new songs don’t help the matter. Even though Cynthia absolutely bodied her “No Good Deed” rendition and Ariana delivered one of her greatest vocal performances with “Thank Goodness” (Jon M. Chu will pay for how he butchered that song in the film!), those moments can’t carry the whole second act. Wicked’s always been top-heavy, and that wasn’t going to change on the silver screen. 

Joe Lynch: I was against the movie being a two-parter for this very reason, but I’m happily eating crow now — both are satisfying and sumptuous films with emotional resonance. Musically, though, I think the first half still soars while the second part glides — not a fatal problem by any means (the show is still running on Broadway, after all) but there’s no denying that part one simply has more bangers. It’s a credit to what Chu has done, visually and dramatically, that Part 2 still feels like a standalone victory. 

Andrew Unterberger: As someone with little Wicked knowledge going into the movies, I can’t say I noticed a huge drop-off in quality between the songs in Part 1 and Part 2. Honestly, if there was a drop-off, it was with those new songs written specifically for the movie. Otherwise, close enough.  5. Both Erivo and Grande were nominated for Oscars for the film’s first part, but went home empty-handed. Do you expect either will be nominated again for For Good — and could either emerge victorious this time?  Hannah Dailey: If neither of these women get Oscar love this year, I’ll be shocked. Both delivered generational performances in this project, and with For Good’s emotionally meatier scriptproviding way more opportunities for them to shine as dramatic actresses, I think they have even better shots of taking home acting prizes next year than they did with Part 1. 

Stephen Daw: For all the critical gripes about Wicked: For Good (plenty of which I personally agree with), the one thing I have consistently seen is critics praising both performances from Ariana and Cynthia. I’ll be surprised if they’re not both nominated a second time. In terms of the likelihood of either of them winning, it is a stacked awards season, but I think Ariana has the best chance out of the two of them to take home the trophy for the stellar acting performance she delivered in this movie.  

Kyle Denis: As it stands, I think both will land repeats nods — which would be historic considering only six actors have received Oscar nominations for playing the same character in two different films. Grande is probably the frontrunner in best supporting actress, and she has a solid chance to take home the gold – especially if votes get split between the supporting players in Sinners, Sentimental Value and One Battle After Another. She may also face stiff competition from Weapons’ Amy Madigan, should critics rally around her early in the season. The actors’ branch clearly respects Erivo, so she should have no problem making the final five… whether she has enough steam to take down Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley is the real question.  

Joe Lynch: Nominated? Likely. Erivo pulled off a tricky character transformation with pathos and aplomb, and she deserves a nod for that. Grande revealed a depth and breadth we didn’t see in part 1, so she might get recognized as well — but something tells me they’re unlikely to nominate both two years in a row and that Erivo has the edge. I would be surprised if it turns into a win for her — but that being said, she’ll get Oscar gold within the next decade, I’m sure. 

Andrew Unterberger: If I had to guess, I’d say both get nominated again and both are left applauding in the audience again.