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In one of the most important cases of the social media age, free speech and national security collide at the Supreme Court on Friday in arguments over the fate of TikTok, a wildly popular digital platform that roughly half the people in the United States use for entertainment and information.
TikTok says it plans to shut down the social media site in the U.S. by Jan. 19 unless the Supreme Court strikes down or otherwise delays the effective date of a law aimed at forcing TikTok’s sale by its Chinese parent company.
Working on a tight deadline, the justices also have before them a plea from President-elect Donald Trump, who has dropped his earlier support for a ban, to give him and his new administration time to reach a “political resolution” and avoid deciding the case. It’s unclear if the court will take the Republican president-elect’s views — a highly unusual attempt to influence a case — into account.
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TikTok and China-based ByteDance, as well as content creators and users, argue the law is a dramatic violation of the Constitution’s free speech guarantee.
“Rarely if ever has the court confronted a free-speech case that matters to so many people,” lawyers for the users and content creators wrote. Content creators are anxiously awaiting a decision that could upend their livelihoods and are eyeing other platforms.
The case represents another example of the court being asked to rule about a medium with which the justices have acknowledged they have little familiarity or expertise, though they often weigh in on meaty issues involving restrictions on speech.
The Biden administration, defending the law that President Joe Biden signed in April after it was approved by wide bipartisan majorities in Congress, contends that “no one can seriously dispute that (China’s) control of TikTok through ByteDance represents a grave threat to national security.”
Officials say Chinese authorities can compel ByteDance to hand over information on TikTok’s U.S. patrons or use the platform to spread or suppress information.
But the government “concedes that it has no evidence China has ever attempted to do so,” TikTok told the justices, adding that limits on speech should not be sustained when they stem from fears that are predicated on future risks.
In December, a panel of three appellate judges, two appointed by Republicans and one by a Democrat, unanimously upheld the law and rejected the First Amendment speech claims.
Adding to the tension, the court is hearing arguments just nine days before the law is supposed to take effect and 10 days before a new administration takes office.
In language typically seen in a campaign ad rather than a legal brief, lawyers for Trump have called on the court to temporarily prevent the TikTok ban from going into effect but refrain from a definitive resolution.
“President Trump alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government — concerns which President Trump himself has acknowledged,” D. John Sauer, Trump’s choice to be his administration’s top Supreme Court lawyer, wrote in a legal brief filed with the court.
Trump took no position on the underlying merits of the case, Sauer wrote. Trump’s campaign team used TikTok to connect with younger voters, especially male voters, and Trump met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, in December. He has 14.7 million followers on TikTok.
The justices have set aside two hours for arguments, and the session likely will extend well beyond that. Three highly experienced Supreme Court lawyers will be making arguments. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar will present the Biden administration’s defense of the law, while Trump’s solicitor general in his first administration, Noel Francisco, will argue on behalf of TikTok and ByteDance. Stanford Law professor Jeffrey Fisher, representing content creators and users, will be making his 50th high court argument.
If the law takes effect, Trump’s Justice Department will be charged with enforcing it. Lawyers for TikTok and ByteDance have argued that the new administration could seek to mitigate the law’s most severe consequences.
But they also said that a shutdown of just a month would cause TikTok to lose about one-third of its daily users in the U.S. and significant advertising revenue.
As it weighs the case, the court will have to decide what level of review it applies to the law. Under the most searching review, strict scrutiny, laws almost always fail. But two judges on the appellate court that upheld the law said it would be the rare exception that could withstand strict scrutiny.
TikTok, the app’s users and many briefs supporting them urge the court to apply strict scrutiny to strike down the law.
But the Democratic administration and some of its supporters cite restrictions on foreign ownership of radio stations and other sectors of the economy to justify the effort to counter Chinese influence in the TikTok ban.
A decision could come within days.
This story was originally published by The Associated Press.
Songwriters Jessi Alexander, Amy Allen, Jessie Jo Dillon and RAYE will not be attending or performing at Spotify’s Songwriter of the Year Grammy party slated for Jan. 28, with Allen and Dillon citing Spotify’s treatment of songwriters as the reason for their absence. As a result, four out of five nominees in the Songwriter of the Year category at this year’s Grammys will be opting out of the event. (A representative for the fifth, Edgar Barrera, has not responded to Billboard‘s request for comment.)
Representatives for Allen (“Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter, “Adore You” by Harry Styles and “greedy” by Tate McRae) and Dillon (“10,000 Hours” by Dan + Shay, “Lies Lies Lies” by Morgan Wallen and “Am I Okay?” by Megan Moroney) confirmed to Billboard that they both made the decision not to attend due to Spotify cutting royalty rates on premium streams for songwriters and publishers in April of last year, which Billboard estimated will lead to a $150 million decrease in royalties over 12 months compared to how much they would have made had the royalty rate not been reconfigured.
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Spotify believes it qualifies for a lower mechanical royalty rate for songwriters and publishers because it has added audiobooks to its premium subscription tiers and reclassified those services as “bundles,” with multiple services included in one price. Now, the royalty originally intended for songwriters and publishers alone is split between paying for music and audiobooks.
“After some thought, I couldn’t in good conscience support this initiative given their approach to bundling royalties,” said Dillon in a statement to Billboard. “It is very nice to be individually honored, but it is better for me and my entire songwriter community to be paid fairly for our art. There are no songs without songwriters.”
A representative for RAYE (“Escapism.” by RAYE, “Dancing With a Stranger” by Sam Smith & Normani, “Secrets” by One Republic) says the singer/songwriter never committed to attending or performing at this event, so “there’s nothing for her to back out of at present,” but adds that RAYE has been “an outspoken advocate on behalf of songwriters’ rights igniting an industry-wide dialogue on the topic.” A representative for Alexander (“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” by Luke Combs, “The Climb” by Miley Cyrus, “You, Me and Whiskey” by Justin Moore & Priscilla Block) confirmed to Billboard that she will not be attending the event but did not provide a reason for dropping out.
A representative for Spotify declined Billboard’s request for comment.
Spotify started its Songwriter of the Year Grammy event to celebrate the nominees for the prestigious writing award, which the Recording Academy established in 2023. Each Songwriter of the Year nominee has been invited to take the stage at Spotify party and sing the songs they wrote for other artists in a room full of their peers.
Other songwriters have taken to social media to express their dismay about Spotify’s upcoming event after receiving Save the Dates from the streamer. Songwriter Ross Golan said, via an Instagram Story, “If you are a songwriter, you cannot go to this. Do not let Spotify f— you on bundling and then give you free booze.” A 2023 Grammy Songwriter of the Year nominee Laura Veltz said in her own Instagram Story, “Spotify is robbing you. Songwriters: do not fall for this horse s—.”
In April 2024, Spotify officially added audiobooks as an offering to its premium tiers (which include premium, family and duo plans). By adding audiobooks, the streaming service claimed it now qualifies to pay a discounted so-called “bundle” rate to songwriters for premium, duo and family tier streams.
At the time, a Spotify representative said that “changes in our product portfolio mean that we are paying out in different ways based on terms agreed to by both streaming services and publishers” and called its decision to reclassify premium tiers as bundles as “consistent” with “multiple [other] DSPs.” Other competitors like Apple Music and Amazon Music do have bundled offerings — including Amazon bundling Prime and Amazon Music and Apple bundling Apple Music and Apple News — but Spotify’s move to make its popular premium tiers into bundles has a much larger impact than its competitors, given that Spotify is the most popular streaming service in the U.S. and the premium tiers are a widely used offering.
“Spotify is on track to pay publishers and societies more in 2024 than in 2023,” the Spotify representative added at the time, citing the company’s Loud and Clear report that says the streamer has paid nearly $4 billion to publishers, PROs and collection societies in the last two years.
The National Music Publishers Association (NMPA), The Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC), and various songwriters did not take the news lightly. The MLC filed a lawsuit against Spotify in May, claiming the streamer “improperly” classified its premium tiers as bundles. The NMPA’s CEO/president David Israelite said Spotify had “declare[d] war” on songwriters and launched a multi-faceted attack that included sending a cease-and-desist for unlicensed lyrics, video and podcast content; unveiling a legislative proposal; and filing complaints with the FTC and nine other consumer trade groups.
Israelite has also voiced his disapproval over Spotify’s Songwriter of the Year party, saying in an Instagram post: “Is this a joke? Spotify declares war on songwriters. Is attempting to gut what they pay them. Is being sued by the MLC. And they think they can throw a party honoring songwriters? I’m at a loss for words. Actually, I’m not. Hubris. Audacity. Crassness. Hypocritical. Cynical. Forward this and add your own word.”
Megan Thee Stallion won a restraining order against Tory Lanez on Thursday (Jan. 9) after tearfully testifying before a Los Angeles judge that she’s scared he’ll “shoot me again” when released from prison and “maybe this time I won’t make it.”
A month after the star’s lawyers warned that Lanez has continued to “terrorize her” with a “campaign of harassment” even as he sits behind bars, Judge Richard Bloom granted her a civil restraining order that will bar Lanez from any harassing conduct for the next five years.
The ruling came after emotional testimony from Megan herself, who fought back tears as she told Bloom that she hasn’t “been at peace since I was shot” and is “just tired of being harassed.”
“It just seems like I have to relive it every day. The person who shot me won’t let me forget it,” Megan told the judge via livestream video conference. “I’m scared that when he gets out of jail he’s going to still be upset with me … I feel like maybe he’ll shoot me again and maybe this time I won’t make it.”
Judge Bloom issued the order from the bench, saying that Megan had shown a “credible threat of violence” and other potential wrongdoing that “seriously harasses the petitioner and serves no lawful purpose.” The order bars a wide range of conduct, including any contact or harassment through any means.
After Bloom issued the order, the star briefly unmuted her microphone: “Thank you, judge.”
Lanez was convicted in 2022 on three felony counts over the violent 2020 incident, in which a drunken argument in the Hollywood Hills escalated into a shooting. After Lanez allegedly yelled “Dance, bitch!,” he proceeded to shoot at Megan’s feet with a handgun, striking her multiple times. In 2023, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison; he has filed an appeal, which remains pending.
In recent months, Megan’s attorneys have fought what they call an unlawful campaign by Lanez to spread misinformation about the case on the internet — like a viral story that circulated on X in October falsely claiming an appeals court had declared him “innocent.”
In October, Megan’s lawyers filed a federal lawsuit against YouTuber and social media personality Milagro Gramz, who she claims has served as a “mouthpiece and puppet” for the convicted singer. In later filings, they alleged that discovery in the case had revealed prison phone calls in which Lanez coordinated payments to Gramz.
And last month, Megan’s attorneys demanded the civil harassment restraining order in Los Angeles court, arguing Lanez had conspired with people outside the prison to “harass, bully, and antagonize” her. They said they had only recently learned that the criminal restraining order from the shooting case was no longer in place and that it could not now be reimposed.
“Mr. Peterson’s attempts to retraumatize and revictimize Ms. Pete recognize no limits — indeed, they continue even while he is behind bars,” Megan’s lawyers wrote at the time. “While Mr. Peterson distorts and recklessly disregards the truth in his desperate attempt to appeal his conviction, his false assertions have reignited a slew of negative, harmful, and defamatory comments directed to Ms. Pete.”
Attorneys for Lanez responded late last month, calling the petition a “frivolous request” and accusing Megan of trying to “weaponize the justice system” because she “disagrees with free speech” and couldn’t handle criticism: “Rather than rebut the commentary or debate the issues … Plaintiff has succumbed to the current trend of using the legal system in an attempt to cancel those opinions she disagrees with.”
At Thursday’s hearing, Lanez’s attorney Michael Hayden reiterated those arguments, saying his client was “not threatening the petitioner in any way.” Instead, he argued that Megan was simply upset about criticism from internet bloggers with “their own independent minds” who Lanez cannot control — and he warned that such a restraining order would violate the First Amendment.
“This is about an attempt to chill free speech based on prior restraint,” the attorney told the judge.
At one point, Megan herself returned to the virtual witness stand to rebut that point, saying she was “not trying to take anyone’s free speech away” but rather to stop Lanez from continuing to drive harmful harassment from behind the scenes.
“I understand that being a public figure comes with hearing a lot of people from all over the world talk about you,” she told the judge. “The problem that I have is that the man that shot me is orchestrating other people and paying people … to put out lies and smear campaigns against me.”
In issuing his ruling, Judge Bloom seemed to avoid the issue of online smears and instead focus on the potential for violence, citing the 2020 shooting that lay at the heart of the case.
“We have a shooting that took place … and with a violent act like that there’s a ripple effect that continues on,” the judge said. “In some cases, it may be small ripples that go away with time, and in other cases, it could be ripples that grow with time. Ms. Pete’s testimony here seems to make clear that the ripple effect here has been significant.”
Since Tuesday (Jan. 7), ferocious wildfires have been blazing through the greater Los Angeles region, causing extensive damage to life and property, including those of many individuals working in the music business. With nearly 180,000 residents impacted by evacuation orders, at least five dead and thousands of structures damaged or destroyed, music industry organizations are finding ways to provide relief for impacted music workers.
Below, find a list of some of the music organizations offering relief for L.A. industry owrkers. We will continue to update this list as more announcements are made.
(For health alerts, evacuation updates and shelter information, check out L.A. County’s emergency website here.)
MusiCares
The Recording Academy’s philanthropic arm MusiCares say it “can consider emergency funds related to evacuation and relocation costs, instrument replacement/repair, home damage, medical care, mental health services, & other essential living needs,” according to a statement released to social media. Further details have yet to be announced.
Reach out to: musicaresrelief@musicares.org or call 1-800-687-4227
Backline
Mental health non-profit Backline is sharing resources for musicians in Los Angeles via social media and offering its own services. “Know that Backline is here for you and that you are not alone,” the organization wrote on Instagram. “You can reach out to us via our case submission form and a Case Manager will contact you to help you get the long-term support you need. If you need immediate assistance, please reach out to the Disaster Distress Hotline for free 24/7 support by calling 1-800-985-5990.”
Sweet Relief Musicians Fund
Sweet Relief Musicians Fund, the non-profit helping musicians and music industry workers in need, has launched a natural disaster relief fund for those in Los Angeles County and the surrounding areas. Applications are also open for those seeking relief, with funds raised going toward loss of music-related equipment, medical bills related to the fires and other vital living expenses.
Head here to donate or fill out an application.
Instrumental soul music is not in high demand in 2025. But last summer, Fat Beats Records quietly moved hundreds of copies of El Michels Affair’s ‘Enter the 37th Chamber‘ — an anniversary edition of an album containing instrumental soul versions of the Wu-Tang Clan’s iconic hit “C.R.E.A.M.,” Ol’ Dirty Bastard’s “Shimmy Shimmy Ya,” Ghostface Killah’s “Cherchez La Ghost” and more.
The majority of direct-to-consumer sales came through TikTok Shop, an e-commerce platform inside the short-form video app that allows users to easily buy items without having to leave for another site. “We found some cool creators, sent them the vinyl, and they did an unboxing video, or talked about some of the tracks while playing the music in the background, and then linked directly to TikTok Shop,” explains Molly Bouchon, director of digital at Rostrum Records, which acquired Fat Beats in 2024. The El Michels Affair reissue is now sold out.
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TikTok Shop is relatively new and thus often overlooked by many artists and record labels, according to Itai Winter, vp of commercial partnerships at the marketing platform Genni, which helps match creators with music promotion campaigns. The fact that TikTok’s fate in the U.S. remains uncertain probably hasn’t helped; the Supreme Court will hear arguments on Friday (Jan. 10) about whether the app should be sold or shut down in the U.S.
Still, Winter estimates that “probably about a fifth of the For You page [on the app] are TikTok Shop-related posts” now. And harnessing that attention can pay off handsomely, at least when it comes to driving vinyl purchases: “We’re doing $15,000 to $20,000 in sales every month” through the platform, Bouchon says.
And she hopes there might be room to do more: “How do we make TikTok Shop a $40,000 or $50,000 a month revenue builder for us?”
TikTok officially rolled out TikTok Shop in September 2023 as part of a push into the lucrative world of e-commerce. “We have a very aggressive plan to make a splash in the industry and make sure that people out there understand that TikTok is a place for shopping,” Nico Le Bourgeois, head of U.S. operations for TikTok Shop, told The New York Times.
“With the number of people shopping on TikTok Shop every month nearly tripling since officially launching in September 2023, TikTok Shop is leveling the playing field so that any creator, merchant, brand and product can become a huge hit on our platform,” Le Bourgeois added in a recent statement to Billboard.
Genni became an official TikTok Shop partner as soon as it launched. “I got a really in-depth look and a chance to see what is actually driving sales,” Winter says. He frequently saw success when creators, rather than artists, posted about merchandise like records. Creators are incentivized to do so because they receive a commission on sales from links they share. Sellers can set commissions as they see fit; they’re often between 12% and 16%, according to Winter.
Alex F., who goes by plastic.disc on TikTok, is a self-professed “huge music nerd” who posts all manner of vinyl-related videos on the platform — “my $7,000 turntable set-up“; “more weird and unusual records in my collection!” He now often includes links to TikTok Shop and appreciates the commissions he receives from sales because they help feed back into his vinyl habit. (Though he would post the videos “even if I wasn’t making money — it’s what I love,” he says.)
These clips can spread far and wide: A plastic.disc post about Mac Miller’s 7″ single “The Spins” earned more than 2 million views, helping to move 744 copies of the record through TikTok Shop in a single week in October.
Winter has worked out a rough rule of thumb: A million views on a TikTok video with a TikTok Shop link usually translates to around $6,000 to $8,000 in LP sales. “It’s really convenient for people to see an unboxing video, think, ‘That’s cool,’ and go buy it,” says Alex F. TikTok has “primed their users to make transactions quickly,” adds Carly Redford, former director of e-commerce at Manhead Merch.
“I unfortunately know that,” Bouchon jokes. “I swear every day I get something from TikTok Shop.”
While TikTok Shop has the potential to turbocharge sales, many merchandise companies are not yet equipped to pivot rapidly to meet unexpected geysers of demand. They tend to work on months-long time horizons leading up to a release date. But release dates don’t matter as much on TikTok, which has consistently rejuvenated older songs.
As a result, “A lot of the fulfillment centers are having difficulty,” according to Johnny Cloherty, co-founder of the digital marketing company Songfluencer. “TikTok requires you to ship within two business days, and that’s tough for larger merchandise companies.”
One record that Winter was promoting went out of stock five times over the course of three months. In a way, this is a good problem to have. Still, “It can be frustrating,” he says. “You wake up to a viral video, and you’re selling 10 units an hour. Call the distribution center, and they’re like, ‘Don’t worry about it, we’ll send you another batch in two weeks.’ I’m like, ‘I need that yesterday.’”
Those delays mean that acts are leaving money on the table. On top of that, other TikTok Shop users may be siphoning off money that should go into artists’ pockets. Although TikTok Shop policy “expressly prohibits the unauthorized use of any third-party intellectual property rights,” Redford says, “There is so much bootleg merch [on the platform].”
This is a common problem on e-commerce sites. “That happens on Etsy, on Pinterest, on Facebook Marketplace, wherever,” Cloherty says. However, “None of those platforms drive even close to the degree of consumption and discovery that TikTok does,” he continues, which could make bootlegs on TikTok Shop more detrimental.
According to TikTok Shop’s Intellectual Property Rights report, published in October, the platform “implements proactive measures to identify and prevent potential infringements, significantly reducing their occurrence. Between July 2023 and June 2024, more than 5,254,000 products were prevented from going live.” In addition, “497,026 products were taken down after going live for IPR violations.”
Copyright owners can report infringement notices to TikTok Shop. In Redford’s experience, though, the most effective way for artists to combat bootlegs is to sell their own official products.
Despite success stories like El Michels Affair’s Enter the 37th Chamber, Redford still hasn’t seen many artists experimenting with TikTok Shop campaigns. “I feel like labels aren’t really focusing enough on it,” says Amy Hart, a digital marketer and co-founder of prairy, a new indie label. “We’re actively talking about it and figuring that side of things out.”
As with all things TikTok, it’s nearly impossible to determine in advance what products — and what videos — are going to cause users to smash the “buy” button. “TikTok Shop is tricky,” acknowledges Tyler Melton, who posts vinyl-focused videos of his own as tyler.fortherecord. “It will either not care about your video at all, or maybe the way you do your title or your intro will hook people.”
Winter’s biggest wins so far have come with vinyl. “We tried selling sweatshirts a couple of times, with only limited success,” he notes.
He believes the merchandise needs pizzazz — users may be unmoved by a simple T-shirt with an artist’s logo. (The El Michels Affair LP was described in one TikTok video as “a sick black-and-yellow” pressing, while a recent Wiz Khalifa vinyl reissue featured eye-catching “retro video game inspired artwork.”) “You can’t look at TikTok Shop like you’re uploading everything in your merch store,” Cloherty says. “It’s more like, what merch items can spark a TikTok-worthy moment?”
“This is all pretty new,” Bouchon adds. “Now I think we’re all realizing, ‘Oh shit, we need to prioritize this.’”
Travis Scott, SZA and Future are facing a copyright lawsuit over allegations that they stole key elements of their 2023 hit “Telekinesis” from an earlier track.
In a complaint filed Wednesday in Manhattan federal court, Victory Boyd (a singer signed to Jay-Z‘s Roc Nation record label) says the stars copied lyrics and other elements from her 2019 song “Like The Way It Sounds” and used them in “Telekinesis,” which spent 11 weeks on the Hot 100.
“Scott, Sza, Future and all defendants intentionally and willfully copied plaintiffs’ original work, specifically plaintiff’s lyrics, when they commercially released the infringing work,” write Boyd’s lawyers.
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Boyd claims that she initially shared “Like The Way” with Kanye West, who then recorded it as a track called “Ultrasounds.” West (who is not named in the lawsuit) then allegedly shared the song with Scott, who then shared it with SZA and Future.
“Scott gained access to the studio plaintiff left the original work in and began creating the infringing work,” Boyd’s lawyers write. “In May of 2023, Scott, SZA and Future agreed to create the infringing work by copying plaintiff’s original work.”
Notably, the lawsuit say the stars have essentially admitted to using her song. When “Telekinesis” was first uploaded to streaming platforms, Boyd’s lawyers say she was credited as a co-writer in the metadata. More recently, they say she’s been offered an 8 percent songwriting credit to resolve the dispute.
But Boyd appears focused on the fact that she “never granted permission” for her song to be used in the first place – saying the track had been taken without her “authorization, knowledge or consent.”
Also named as a defendant in the lawsuit is Audemars Piguet, a Swiss watchmaker that has partnered with Scott’s Cactus Jack brand for a collaborative line of watches. Boyd says the company used “Telekinesis” in advertising videos even after she and her publisher expressly refused their request for a license.
“The defendants and AP partnered to publish and commercially release an advertising campaign broadcasting the infringing work over the plaintiff’s objection,” her lawyers write.
The connection between “Telekinesis” and Boyd is hardly a secret. On the crowd-sourced lyrics database Genius, fans have noted that the song was “originally written by Victory Boyd as a gospel song” for West, then was “passed around many artists” before it “eventually ended up being a Travis song.”
Reps for Scott, SZA and Future did not immediately return requests for comment.
As Billboard publishes its 137th volume throughout 2025, stay in the know on the magazine’s print schedule for the year, along with each issue’s corresponding theme. This is an updating post, so be sure to check back for any changes.
Issue Date: Jan. 11, 2025Theme: Managers to Watch/Quarter-Century Charts
Issue Date: Jan. 25, 2025Theme: The Billboard Power 100
Issue Date: Feb. 8, 2025Theme: Sports*This issue will include Top Music Venues
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Issue Date: March 8, 2025Theme: SXSW/Branding Power Players
Issue Date: March 22, 2025Theme: Women in Music
Issue Date: April 19, 2025Theme: TBD*This issue will include Top Music Lawyers
Issue Date: May 10, 2025Theme: AAPI Heritage Month/40 Under 40*This issue will include International Power Players
Issue Date: May 31, 2025Theme: Country Power Players
Issue Date: June 7, 2025Theme: Indie
Issue Date: June 21, 2025Theme: Pride
Issue Date: July 19, 2025Theme: Fashion
Issue Date: Aug. 16, 2025Theme: Fall Music Preview
Issue Date: Aug. 30, 2025Theme: R&B/Hip-Hop Power Players
Issue Date: Sept. 27, 2025Theme: Latin Power Players
Issue Date: Oct. 4, 2025 (Double Issue)Theme: Grammy Preview/Producers
Issue Date: Oct. 25, 2025Theme: Touring*This issue will include Top Music Business Schools
Issue Date: Nov. 15, 2025Theme: BBMAs*This issue will include Top Business Managers
Issue Date: Dec. 6, 2025Theme: Grammy Voter Guide
Issue Date: Dec. 13, 2025Theme: No. 1s/Year in Music
We’re a week into 2025, and Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have gone full MAGA and parts of Los Angeles are burning.
Much like the world in general, the music business seems to be at an inflection point, its dominant subscription-streaming business model challenged by its success. As growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, labels and artists must contend with an avalanche of new music, disruption from distribution startups, and a possible ban on TikTok in the U.S. Then there’s the looming threat of generative artificial intelligence, which raises the uncomfortable prospect that computers could write songs about a dark future in which computers write songs about a dark future.
In a lighter spirit, here are my predictions for the coming year: the good, the bad, the ugly — and the nerdy.
TikTok’s time will not run out — but the issue won’t go away
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The case against TikTok is tighter than many people assume — the U.S. has always restricted foreign ownership of some media (which is why Sony is the only company that owned a movie studio but not a television network). But at a time when both political parties need to show that they matter to young people, the availability of TikTok is a tempting problem to solve. So it’s easy to imagine a compromise — which will last unless tensions rise with China and mysteriously popular videos portray Taiwan as a breakaway province.
Catalogs will continue to sell — but it will be obvious that some were overvalued
The market for publishing catalogs and other rights depends mostly on economics, but demographics matter, too. Baby Boomer performers and songwriters are at an age when they’re doing estate planning, and since many have led complicated personal lives, it’s often simpler to sell assets rather than divide them. That, and streaming growth, will keep the market steady overall. But it will emerge that at least some of these acquisitions weren’t worth the price. Any market only has so many blue-chip assets.
Trump’s administration will settle the federal antitrust case against Live Nation — but some states won’t back off
President Joe Biden’s administration made antitrust a priority, and the Justice Department’s case against Live Nation symbolized its ambition. (The case is complicated.) Most Republicans disdain antitrust enforcement and vice-president-elect JD Vance seems to favor it, but Trump’s consistent desire for visible wins on popular issues will tempt him to settle and declare victory. The states that joined the Justice Department case might not agree, however, and they could continue to pressure the company in other ways.
This will be the winter of our diss-content — but it will not last
Some feuds only have winners. Together, the six tracks at the center of the rap battle between Kendrick Lamar and Drake generated nearly $15.4 million in streaming, digital sales and publishing revenue by late November, according to a Billboard estimate based on Luminate data. No wonder the Drake freestyle “Fighting Irish” already appeared briefly on Jan. 3. Expect a few more lyrical salvos, one or two of which could do well. After that, hip-hop fans will move on.
More mergers are coming — at high prices
The Trump administration may move to limit market concentration in technology and some sectors of the media business, but the recorded music business won’t be a priority. If European regulators approve Universal Music Group’s acquisition of Downtown Music Holdings, another label group will buy another distributor. At what price, though? Companies, like catalogs, are selling for high multiples — especially distributors, which are strategically important to maintain market share and ensure access to talent. How much is too much? We’ll soon find out.
Concert ticket prices will keep rising — while Live Nation gets the blame and the money
As my colleague Dave Brooks points out, some concertgoers have had sticker shock longer than others have been alive, yet they keep paying top dollar to see their favorite artists. Prices will rise most for big shows, boosted by FOMO and the ability to tell everyone you were there on social media. Live Nation will take the blame and make more money, even though prices have more to do with supply and demand — there are only so many tickets to go around.
“Streaming 2.0” will take off — and we’ll figure out what it means
Subscription streaming saved the recorded music business, but its flaws are starting to show. Online platforms are full of AI elevator music and sped-up versions of existing songs. Meanwhile, rightsholders are pushing for a price increase. The solution, according to UMG, is “Streaming 2.0,” a concept introduced at UMG’s capital markets day presentation and mentioned again in the company’s announcement of its new deal with Amazon Music. The basic idea is to segment pricing, to drive up ARPU by offering more value to superfans. This is the year we’ll get some details.
Streaming services will set themselves apart from rivals — at least a little
The tiered pricing model implied by Streaming 2.0 means online platforms could be incentivized to offer additional content or functionality for superfans. Exclusives died in 2016, when the industry’s focus was on adding subscribers. Now it needs to get some of them to pay more. Imagine extra tracks, like those that go to big-box retailers, or behind-the-scenes video — content that’s worth something to a relatively small number of superfans but won’t capture the interest of casual fans.
Emerging markets will keep emerging — but will stay that way for some time
As streaming growth slows in the U.S. and Europe, all eyes are on emerging markets — countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East. The growth is impressive, and the excitement is palpable, but some of these markets account for so little revenue that it will take some time for them to matter as much as people expect. For the next decade, most of them will bring in less revenue than vinyl records in the U.S.
At least one major star will go all-in on Trump — and many fans won’t care
As Trump prepares to take office, the resistance is losing its persistence — especially in the media business. Walt Disney Company CEO Bob Iger signed off on subsidiary ABC’s settlement with Trump, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the company would prioritize free speech, in a way that looks like he kissed Trump’s ring. Before 2026, at least one major pop star will follow, either out of genuine enthusiasm or just because it’s easier. The expected outrage will not materialize.
Lyndsay Cruz, who has served as executive director of the Academy of Country Music’s Lifting Lives philanthropic arm since 2019, has stepped down.
The shift comes as the organization seeks a director based in Nashville. The Academy moved its headquarters from Los Angeles to Nashville in December 2022. Cruz, who is looking for other opportunities, lives in Los Angeles with her family where the Academy had been based.
“I am so proud of the work that my team and I accomplished during my time at ACM Lifting Lives. With a focus on health-related initiatives, we were able to help the country music industry through the COVID-19 pandemic and the continuing mental health crisis, all while working to remove the stigma around mental health struggles,” said Cruz, who was on Billboard’s Country Power Players list in 2022 and 2023 and on Billboard’s Women in Music list in 2023.
During Cruz’s tenure, Lifting Lives raised more than $6 million. More than $4 million was disbursed from Lifting Lives’ COVID-19 fund to over 2,000 people in 42 states. Lifting Lives’ mental health fund, which was created as COVID-19 waned, has handed out $400,000 in grants to individuals and organizations that prioritize mental health support for those working in the country music industry.
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“It was only with the help of the passionate people in the industry who are willing to give back that we were able to raise and distribute over $6 million during my time leading ACM Lifting Lives. We had artists like Lainey Wilson, Morgan Wallen, Jelly Roll, Luke Bryan, and so many others step up to help when they knew others needed it,” Cruz said. “Some of the moments that stick out in my head over the past few years include our Covid fund, mental health focus, music therapy programs and mostly, the industry and artists stepping up to support Lifting Lives with their time and resources. Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson singing ‘Save Me’ at the ACM Awards in 2023 inspired by ACM Lifting Lives mental health related work was one of the top highlights of my time with the organization.”
Cruz says she hopes to continue to work in philanthropy as she believes deeply in the mission of such organizations as Lifting Lives — as both executive director and someone who needed help.
“As I leave my post, I want to reiterate how important the support for organizations like this is, and for individuals going through struggles,” Cruz says. “The mental health crisis is so prevalent, especially in the entertainment and music industries, and I’m proof of that. I’ve had recent struggles with mental health, having to step away from my role for a moment to take care of myself and give permission to feel. It’s been life-changing to get a handle on my own life and focus on what’s really important, and I will continue to do that moving forward, and help others with their struggles.”
The Academy has not yet begun its search for her replacement.
Sony Music Publishing Nashville has renewed its publishing agreement with GRAMMY-winning country singer/songwriter Lainey Wilson. Also a CMA and ACM Entertainer of the Year winner, Wilson is one of the most popular voices in Nashville today with hits like “Watermelon Moonshine,” “Heart Like A Truck” and collaborations with other top talents like Cole Swindell, Jelly Roll and HARDY. Wilson is also known for her role on the hit Paramount + series Yellowstone.
Warner Chappell Music Benelux has signed Australian DJ CYRIL. One of Australia’s fast rising stars in electronic music, CYRIL hit the scene as an instant sensation with 2023’s “Sumblin’ In.” He continued the momentum in 2024 with a remix of Disturbed’s “Sound of Silence.”
Kobalt has signed a global publishing deal with acclaimed Mexican folk artist Kevin Kaarl. From Meoqui, Chihuahua, Mexico, the 24-year-old artist and songwriter already has three albums out to date, and he has done it all independently. Now, Kaarl is putting the finishing touches on his fourth album Ultra Sodade, expected to release later this year.
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Concord Music Publishing has signed Justin Donahue to a global co-publishing agreement. Professionally known as Jung Youth, the singer/songwriter/producer’s deal will include his full catalog and all future works. Over the last few years, Jung Youth has established himself through credits on tracks like NCT 127m Tomee Prott, CHERUB, Social Club Misfits Devon Again and Snow Wife, and he also has his own solo artist project dating back to 2017.
Splice is launching the country music genre in its Create AI tool, which allows producers, songwriters and instrumentalists to easily search for samples among Splices multi-million track catalog to use in their original songs. This tool also uses AI to create stacks of samples from the Splice library that work well together, allowing creatives to kick start the songwriting process in a new, user-friendly way. While AI is used to aid in searching and pairing up sounds, all the samples available in Splice Country (and in Splice overall) are human made. Splice Country samples include performances from Nashville musicians like Devin Malone (Jelly Roll, Carrie Underwood) and Kate L. Malone (Sam Hunt, Emma White)
Story House Collective has launched a joint venture with Essential Music Publishing. As part of the partnership announcement, the two companies have jointly signed songwriter and producer Matt Armstrong, best known for working with Christian hitmakers like Casting Crowns, Passion, Bethel Music, Chris Tomlin and more.
Warner Chappell Music and Ned Cameron have signed Nashville-based talent HALLIE to a global publishing agreement. HALLIE’s work as a producer and songwriter spans many genres, including pop, country, rock, hip-hop, k-pop and more. “I’m thrilled and honored to begin this journey,” she says of the new deal.
Centricity Music has signed Rachel Purcell to an exclusive record and publishing deal. From Muscle Shoals, Ala., Purcell has seen success as an artist, recording under her maiden name, Rachel Wammack, but she is ready to reintroduce herself — this time as a faith-based artist and songwriter. Now that she is fully stepping into the realm of Christian songwriting, she says it has all felt “very divine… The songs would finish themselves before I could even get it all out.”