Awards

Music’s Biggest Night is just around the corner, airing this Sunday, Feb. 2. Though much is unsure about what the Grammys will look like this year, amidst the fires that have brought destruction and chaos to California this January, we know the nominees and we know (most of) the performers — enough to make educated guesses about some of the artists who might end up making for the night’s biggest stories.

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Breakout superstars Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan are both nominated in each of the Big Four categories, and also making their debuts as Grammy performers on Sunday. Veteran pop leaders Billie Eilish and Charli XCX are also major nominees and expected performers, while Taylor Swift and Beyoncé are similarly up for the top prizes and expected to attend — but not to perform. And a big wildcard remains Kendrick Lamar, the seven-time nominee who will take the stage at halftime of Super Bowl LIX the following Sunday night.

Who will end up the night’s biggest winners among these A-listers? And who might surprise some folks elsewhere in the awards? Billboard staffers discuss all these questions and more below.

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1. With most of the biggest names in the last year in pop music up for one or multiple of the top prizes on Sunday night, which star do you think stands to gain the most with a win or two in the Big Four categories?

Katie Atkinson: I would say the most to gain would be Chappell Roan, because she’s obviously reached incredible heights over the past year, but she’s still the kind of artist that your mom has maybe heard about on a morning show but doesn’t know her music. A big night on Sunday – anything from winning best new artist to sweeping the Big Four categories, à la Billie Eilish in 2020 – could turn her into a household name. Of course, Beyoncé finally winning album of the year would be a huge storyline, but what does Queen B still have to gain, honestly?

Eric Renner Brown: Charli XCX. She’s a well-established artist who’s had barely any Grammy recognition in the past (prior to this year, her two nominations were a decade ago, for Iggy Azalea’s “Fancy”), and she’s defined by her penchant for creative reinvention – so the possibility that she’ll be nominated in future years feels less inevitable than it does for many of her Big Four competitors. Given Brat’s crossover, zeitgeist-seizing appeal, as well as the eight nominations she secured, 2025 could well be Charli’s best shot at adding “Grammy-winner” to her resume.

Kyle Denis: I think it depends on the category. If Beyoncé takes home AOTY, that’s probably far and away the biggest story of the night; she gains a highly coveted honor that often eluded her, the Recording Academy gains some credibility back. If Kendrick Lamar takes either ROTY or SOTY (or both) with “Not Like Us,” that’s a major moment for him (first General Field victory ever), hip-hop (second-ever hip-hop song to win these categories after “This Is America” in 2019) and diss tracks (stamps “NLU” forever despite ongoing lawsuits). 

Generally, however, I think Chappell Roan stands to gain the most with a win or two in the Big Four categories. Beyoncé and Lamar are already megastars, as are other GF nominees like Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga. A televised Grammy win gives Chappell an opportunity to win over the swaths of the public that still aren’t hip to her – and it’s the ultimate seal of approval for any musician. Between her incredible journey and what she means to so many young people across the country, any Chappell victory would be the night’s crowning moment. 

Nonetheless, if The Beatles pull off that ROTY win, perhaps the night’s biggest winner is actually AI. 

Jason Lipshutz: Beyoncé. While it’s tempting to say that fast-rising artists like Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan would reach a new level of stardom with major Grammy wins, both are unquestionable A-listers who are going to be at the forefront of pop for a long time, regardless of Sunday night’s outcome. Similarly, Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish have already taken home album of the year trophies (four of them for Swift!), and even if he goes home empty-handed, Kendrick Lamar gets to perform at the Super Bowl one week later. To me, Queen Bey has the most at stake, because this particular achievement remains the one box she has yet to check in a legendary professional career. If Cowboy Carter takes home album of the year, the win will feel momentous and career-capping in a way that it won’t for any other artist. 

Andrew Unterberger: Charli XCX. For someone who’s spent the better part of the last decade at the fringes of the mainstream to emerge victorious in the starriest pop year the Grammys has had in ages would make for a true career-peak victory lap, and would further cement her place in the ruling class for years to come.

2. With so many big names in contention, at least one is almost guaranteed to go home empty-handed. Who do you think we’re most likely to be talking about as one of the night’s unfortunate shutouts?

Katie Atkinson: Though we now know she will be in the building, I think there’s a real chance Taylor Swift could go home empty-handed on Sunday. While she has six nominations, there just seems to be more buzz around so many other artists, especially in the top categories. That said, her clearest path to victory is in the best music video category, which she’s won twice before: for the cinematic “All Too Well: The Short Film” in 2023 and the star-studded “Bad Blood” video in 2016. It will be interesting to see if she does win in that category (for “Fortnight” with Post Malone) whether they’ll televise the typically pre-broadcast award to get Swift onstage.

Eric Renner Brown: When it comes to the Grammys, I’ve learned not to bet against Taylor Swift. So while I think that The Tortured Poets Department is a sharp decline from the quality of her previous Grammy-winning work – not to mention inferior to much of the other music she’s competing against – it’s still easy to envision Swift walking away with a bunch of Grammy gold this Sunday. Sadly, I’ve also learned not to bet on Beyoncé, after she seemed bound for album of the year victories that never came to pass in 2015, 2017 and 2023. Stiff competition or not, we’ve seen the most decorated artist in Grammy history walk away empty handed in this coveted category before – and beyond that category, this year, record and song of the year are both positively stacked.

Kyle Denis: I think that unlucky person might be Taylor this year. The Tortured Poets Department is the highest-selling album recognized across the show’s 90+ categories, but Grammys aren’t solely determined by commercial statistics. Of her three General Field races, Swift doesn’t appear to be a frontrunner in any of them. And last year’s AOTY victory for Midnights might spur voters to spread the wealth this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: Chappell Roan, sadly. The Recording Academy has a long track record of nominating, but not rewarding, popular music that is provocative to the point of challenging listeners — think recent albums by Kendrick Lamar, Lana Del Rey and SZA, all of whom have yet to win a Big Four trophy. Roan’s daring approach to pop and unflinching public persona have connected with Gen Z and made her a superstar, but I predict they will not help her on Grammy Night.

Andrew Unterberger: Also Charli XCX. The competition is a little too stacked with longtime household names and/or artists with massive 2024 crossover hits; I fear Charli may still be just a little too fringey as an artist and figure to get the inside track here. (Not that this would be the worst thing for her either — maintaining a little underground edge will likely do her wonders in the long-term anyway.)

3. The Grammys are just as much about the performances as they are about the winners and losers these days. Among the announced performers, who could you see really cementing or improving their star status with a really memorable performance?

Katie Atkinson: Chappell Roan has built up such a reputation as a game-changing live act, drawing record crowds to every festival stage she hit in 2024. But we’ve really only gotten two major TV performances from her so far: her Joan of Arc moment at the MTV VMAs singing “Good Luck Babe!” and her “Pink Pony Club” and “The Giver” twofer on SNL. There’s a big opportunity for her to make a lasting impression on the Grammy audience – both to the fans who’ve already bought in and to the many people who have heard her name but have no idea what she’s about.

Eric Renner Brown: Doechii, without a doubt. Her star continues to rise following August’s Alligator Bites Never Heal – she just scored her first solo Hot 100 entry – and I’ve heard lots of chatter about her recent charismatic Late Show and Tiny Desk performances. She’s enjoying a moment and I think she’ll win over the large network TV audience on Music’s Biggest Night.

Kyle Denis: Doechii, hands down. Every time she hits an awards show stage, Doechii ends the night as one of the most talked-about performers. In the past few weeks, Doechii’s performances on The Late Show, NPR’s Tiny Desk and Genius Open Mic have helped grow both her cultural capital and commercial pull. I expect the Grammys to be no different — and an undeniable performance would coincide beautifully with the steady streaming gains for her Alligator Bites Never Heal mixtape, which could take home the Grammy for best rap album. 

Jason Lipshutz: While casual pop fans are already familiar enough with artists like Carpenter and Roan, Benson Boone and Raye — two bold, talented live acts — have the opportunity to build upon the success of their respective breakthrough hits and elevate themselves in primetime. Raye can certainly deliver roof-rattling vocals; Boone is capable of backflipping into the arms of America. Each of them could walk out of the Grammys ceremony with a much bigger profile.

Andrew Unterberger: Ladies and gentlemen, once again: Charli XCX! While I think she leaves the awards empty-handed this year, I also think she leaves with the most dazzling performance, one that really pushes at the boundaries of what a Grammy performance can be — like Tyler, the Creator’s incendiary “New Magic Wand” from a half decade ago. It’s the win I think she should (and will) be most focused on for Sunday night anyway.

4. Beyond the big stars in the Big Four categories, who’s a slightly lesser-known artist who you could see maybe making some headlines and attracting some notice with a notable win or two on Grammy night?

Katie Atkinson: While RAYE is nominated for best new artist, I don’t think that’s where she’ll make her mark on Sunday. I think a (maybe televised?) songwriter of the year win combined with a sure-to-be captivating performance (it’s what she does best) could be her biggest look Stateside yet after she was all but coronated as the U.K.’s next big thing with her record-breaking six wins at the 2024 BRIT Awards. The Grammys being perfectly timed with her current single “Oscar Winning Tears.” breaking onto the Pop Airplay chart this week could be the recipe for a big post-Grammys breakthrough.

Eric Renner Brown: Before this year, the electronic music veteran Four Tet had only received two Grammy nominations, both for remixes of other artists’ work; now, his sublime 2024 album Three is nominated for best dance/electronic album, and its single “Loved” is up for best dance/electronic recording. Four Tet’s profile has blossomed in recent years, as he headlined Coachella and Madison Square Garden alongside Skrillex and Fred again.., so much so that he feels like a serious contender against his competition this year – and a Grammy win (or two) would be a fitting capstone for one of the dance world’s most prolific and tireless innovators.

Kyle Denis: If RAYE can translate one of her three nominations to her a win, I think that would be an amazing, star-making moment for her. She’s already cemented herself in the UK with her 2024 BRITs sweep and acclaimed tour and festival performances, but a Grammy win coupled with a dazzling performance could help her make some real strides in the States – especially on the heels of her forthcoming “Born Again” collaboration with LISA and Doja Cat.   

Jason Lipshutz: Doechii is a long shot for best new artist, but as a hip-hop artist who’s been crossing over to a greater listenership for months, and a scheduled performer at the Grammys ceremony, she could cause an eruption of attention regardless of how she fares in the category. And if she pulls off an upset in the best rap album category, as the only woman nominated this year against superstars like Eminem, J. Cole and Future? Get ready for one of the most memorable acceptance speeches of the evening.

Andrew Unterberger: Fontaines D.C. The toast of the adult alternative world leveled up commercially in a big way this year, and I could see the band walking away with either or both of best rock album and best alternative music performance. You won’t see them on the main telecast, natch, but it should make for some nice headlines (and maybe a memorable pre-show acceptance speech) for the ascendant Irish quintet.

5. Outside of the educated guesses you’ve already made here, make one bold prediction for Grammy night.

Katie Atkinson: My hot take going into this year’s Grammys is that Doechii has a solid chance to be a spoiler in the best new artist category. I still think it’s Chappell’s to lose, but you can feel the buzz and respect around Doechii that’s been building for years. I vividly remember seeing her perform for the first time at the 2023 Billboard Women in Music event and being absolutely blown away by her talent, and she seems to have that effect on anyone who gets the chance to see her work her magic. She also has three other nominations down ballot, and if she could pick up one of those – maybe best rap album for the spellbinding Alligator Bites Never Heal and/or best rap performance for “NISSAN ALTIMA” – she has a real chance to make a lasting impression on Sunday night. And she’s performing too!

Eric Renner Brown: I love Khruangbin more than any of this year’s best new artist nominees. I also do not think Khruangbin should win best new artist – because Chappell and Doechii feel like generational talents; because several of these artists have had massive chart success, when Khruangbin has had virtually none; because Khruangbin has been around for more than a decade and a best new artist win for them would stretch the Grammys’ definition of “new” to a comical extreme. But the three things that are certain in life are death, taxes and the Grammys Grammy-ing – and Recording Academy voters disregarding all these arguments to award Khruanbgin best new artist would be such a classic example that it almost feels likely to me.

Kyle Denis: Whoever wins AOTY goes home with nothing else. 

Jason Lipshutz: Taylor Swift is the most nominated artist in the history of the song of the year category, with eight career nods — but zero wins. That last part changes on Sunday: although I don’t think an album of the year win for The Tortured Poets Department is likely, “Fortnight,” her somehow-underrated duet with Post Malone, snaps her song of the year losing streak.

Andrew Unterberger: Chappell Roan decides against delivering another run-through of her much-nominated “Good Luck, Babe!” and instead opts for a pointed performance of LGBTQ anthem “Pink Pony Club” — with a guest appearance from Sir Elton John.