State Champ Radio analysis
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After massive technical problems marred the Nov 15. pre-sale for Taylor Swift’s Eras tour, forcing some fans to queue for several hours to buy tickets or fail to buy them entirely, Ticketmaster is changing tactics to sell the remaining 170,000 seats for the artist’s 52 shows. The company, hoping to avoid long fan wait times and site crushing web traffic from bots and Swifties, is going back to an older technology: The 20-year-old Ticketstoday platform, modeled after The Grateful Dead’s own fan club system and still used by jam bands like Phish and Ween. The system has been updated in recent years and even deployed for artists like Ed Sheeran and Madonna, although it’s never handled 170,000 tickets for a single sale.
The move, coupled with Ticketmaster’s agreement to not participate in secondary ticket sales for the Eras tour, shows how eager ticketing companies are to work with a mega earner like Swift while avoiding the crush of traffic that disastrously caused widespread disruptions to her Nov. 15 presale. The record-breaking sale is now the subject of multiple congressional inquires around the Live Nation-owned company. These include a request from Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) to Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate the crash and a call from her counterpart on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust and Consumer Rights, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), to hold a hearing on the “lack of competition in ticketing markets.”
The decision to use Ticketstoday — originally built for Dave Mathews Band’s fanclub platform MusicToday by manager and Red Light Management founder Coran Capshaw in the early 2000s and sold to Live Nation in 2008 — would significantly reduce fan wait times and the potential for another site crash by gating off the most vulnerable parts of the ticketing platform to uninvited fans and bot attacks thought to be responsible for the disruption issues. Instead of making fans queue up again to order their tickets, this will essentially assign tickets to them based on their preferences.
Despite receiving an unprecedented level of negative publicity, Billboard estimates Swift’s Nov. 15 presale generated approximately $554 million in sales for Ticketmaster (which ticketed 47 dates on the Eras tour) and Seat Geek (which ticketed five dates as the primary ticketing company for the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys).
The 170,000 remaining tickets not sold during the presale have a cumulative face value worth $37 million, Billboard estimates. Once Swift completes the sale of her remaining tickets for the Eras Tour, Billboard estimates that she will have generated $591 million in the U.S. alone. Based on projection, Taylor would easily capture the title of Billboard Boxscore’s highest-grossing female touring artist of all time, topping the current title holder Madonna who’s Sticky & Sweet Tour (2008-09) currently holds the No. 1 slot grossing $407 million, and the number four slot on the all-times tour chart, currently topped by Ed Sheeran, whose Divide tour from 2017-2019 grossed $776.2 million.
Typically, Ticketstoday helps artists sell a small portion of their available tickets – usually about 8% per show — directly to their most loyal fans, much like a lottery system. Fans receive an email about a limited number of VIP or high demand tickets available for sale for an upcoming show, and then those who want to buy the tickets select a pricing option and provide their credit card information in advance. If there are more fans wanting tickets than tickets available, a digital lottery is held and the fans selected have their credit cards automatically charged.
While Ticketmaster stayed online during the attack and sold a record 2.2 million tickets in 12 hours, the site could barely handle the traffic created by 14 million fans and billions of bots the company claimed hit the site. This system using Ticketstoday will pace out the sales, and they will be processed away from the public, avoiding any similar potential issues. To determine which fans would get to participate in the upcoming sale, Ticketmaster used its Verified Fan platform . Fans who bought tickets to the 2020 Lover Festival, canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, have been prioritized, as well as those who bought select Taylor Swift merchandise, like a “F— the Patriachy” keychain that went on sale in August. Participating fans will be sent an email requesting their credit card number and choice of tour seating options representing various price ranges and seat locations. Ticketmaster will then work to match fans with their purchase request and charge their card on file. The entire process will take about four weeks and is expected to be completed by Dec. 23.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 24): Just before the last Christmas push, a final ‘S.O.S.’ from the pop world aims to sleigh the competition.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). It’s been five years and countless false starts since R&B superstar SZA dropped her massively influential full-length debut Ctrl. Early signs from the release of her second album S.O.S. indicate that the fans have stuck around: the set dominated the daily Spotify and Apple Music charts over the weekend, while drawing reviews strong enough to make a lot of early December year-end lists look premature.
With no physical release on the schedule, the vast majority of the album’s first-week numbers will mostly come from streaming. But with 23 tracks, including a trio of proven singles in Billboard Hot 100 top 20 hits “Good Days,” “I Hate U’ and “Shirt,” plus guest appearances from Travis Scott and Phoebe Bridgers, it should still end up scoring one of the late year’s strongest debuts.
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie, Me vs. Myself (Highbridge the Label/Atlantic). A Boogie Wit da Hoodie was one of the most prolific artists on the Billboard charts at the turn of the decade, with a couple dozen Hot 100 hits and a Billboard 200 No. 1 album in 2018’s Hoodie SZN. The past two years haven’t been as kind commercially, but the artist born Artist Dubose looks to reverse that trend with the release of fourth studio album Me vs. Myself.
Me vs. Myself will also need to lean on streaming , since it, too, has no physical version and A Boogie has never sold much music – Hoodie SZN was the first album to top the Billboard 200 with sales of under 1,000 copies. But MvM will also get a boost from its 22-song tracklist, with features from fellow streaming stars Kodak Black, Lil Durk, Roddy Ricch.
Anuel AA, LLNM2 (Real Hasta la Muerte/Sony Latin). As with SZA and A Boogie, Latin trap hitmaker Anuel AA’s latest effort arrives without a physical product – but it has a tracklist expansive enough to make both S.O.S. and Me vs. Myself look like EPs by comparison. LLMN2 (short for “Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren 2,” or “Legends Never Die 2”) runs a bountiful 33 tracks, with big-name guests from both reggaetón (Nicky Jam, Jowell & Randy, Zion) and hip-hop (DaBaby, Lil Durk, Kodak Black).
Anuel’s hit the Billboard 200 top 10 twice already, with 2020’s Emmanuel (No. 8) and 2021’s Ozuna teamup Los Dioses (No. 10), but 2021’s first Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren release peaked at No. 30. That album had just 16 tracks, so maybe going with the volume-shooter approach for its sequel will net him the top 10 hat trick.
This story is part of Billboard‘s The Year in Touring package — read more stories about the top acts, tours and venues of 2022 here.
At some point during Daddy Yankee’s ongoing La Ultima Vuelta tour, which kicked off this summer, publicist Mayna Nevarez looked around and took stock of what was happening around her.
“I was with him at sold out arenas in Seattle, Denver, Sacramento and, I swear, it brought tears to my eyes,” says Nevarez, who owns Nevarez PR in Miami and has been Yankee’s publicist for over 15 years. “For so long it was cities like Miami, Los Angeles, New York — big Latin hubs — and we forget that the United States is so much more than that.”
Daddy Yankee is no stranger to big tours; in 2007, for example, he played 17 U.S. shows, and in 2019, he played a fabled 12 sold-out dates at Puerto Rico’s Coliseo de Puerto Rico. But La Ultima Vuelta (The Last Tour) has been his biggest trek by far, selling over 1.1 million tickets for a $125.3 million in gross ticket sales during the tracking period, from Nov. 1, 2021-Oct. 31, 2022, landing him at No. 13 on Billboard’s Top Tours tally.
Yankee’s numbers point to Latin music’s potential for big touring success beyond Bad Bunny and beyond the cities that were long considered Latino strongholds. In 2022, Latin artists of all sizes and genres filled arenas, theaters and festivals, underscoring the huge potential and growing presence of Latin music across the country.
The fray, of course, is led by Bad Bunny, who tops this year’s Top Tours chart with a $373.5 million gross across 65 shows in arenas and stadiums with a combined attendance of nearly 2 million. Bunny’s World’s Hottest Tour broke venue revenue records in 12 of the 15 U.S. markets that it played, including Yankee Stadium, Chicago and Washington, D.C. The North American leg of tour averaged $11.1 million per show — the biggest per-show average gross by any artist in any genre in Boxscore history (dating back to the late 1980s).
At this moment in time at least, Bad Bunny is “a unicorn,” says Henry Cardenas, de CEO of CMN, which promoted Bunny’s U.S. tour in partnership with Live Nation. “No one does what he does.” But at a touring level, “What Bad Bunny really did is take Latin music to industry execs who aren’t Latin, and make them realize there was a viable market,” says Nelson Albareda, founder and CEO of marketing and promotion company Loud and Live.
Loud and Live, which is owned by Albareda, is a prime example of Latin’s growth in touring. The entertainment, marketing and promotion company was launched four years ago and in 2019, pre-pandemic, produced around 50 shows. This year, it came in at No. 14 on the Top Promoters chart, with $96.5 million in gross ticket sales for 386 shows.
“Overall, touring is definitely stronger, and shows are doing better, including in emerging markets like Seattle, Salt Lake City,” says Albareda. “Secondary markets are here to stay and it’s not just the A acts. It’s not a fluke. I think you’ll see the Kansas City, Minneapolis, Nashville, Raleigh, Salt Lakes also do well. The Latino population is now much greater and definitely they’re in every city.”
This allows for vertical growth that may not be always visible on the touring charts. Loud and Live’s roster, for example, includes touring stalwarts like Ricardo Arjona, who ends the year at No. 63 on the Top Tours list ($31.5 million gross on 32 shows), but it also includes rising star Camilo, who just fell short of the Top 100, grossing $11.4 million and selling 149,000 tickets in 28 shows.
Tours by smaller acts, says Jorge Juarez, co-founder of management and promotion company Westwood Entertainment, can still yield impressive margins. Rising Mexican rapper Santa Fe Klan, for example, played 23 markets on his first U.S. tour, selling some 7,000 tickets per market at an average $100 ticket price, per Juarez. And regional Mexican acts have seen a surge in ticket sales as well.
“There’s been a general tendency of growth here for the last two years. Certainly, a lot of factors post-pandemic that gave a surge, but we were already on a trend of growth,” says Hans Schafer, senior vp of Latin touring for Live Nation. “It was inevitable that we would reach this point one way or the other […] The sort of evolution that we’re seeing in different genres within Latin is all adding to that. More music, more new artists. Better production at all levels. Connectivity with multigenerational fans.”
On top of that, the growth of the U.S. Latino population and its middle class cannot be discounted as a factor in the overall growth of touring and consumption. According to Nielsen’s “The Evolving Hispanic Consumer” study from 2021, in the next 40 years Latinos will contribute more growth than any other U.S. population segment, contributing 53% of population growth in the next five years and 58% of the growth to 2060. In terms of buying power, from 2010 to 2019, Hispanic buying power increased by 69%, outpacing non Hispanics (41%).
According to a Pew Research Center Statistical Portrait of Hispanics published in July 2022, Latino demographics have grown “in just about every corner of the nation. While California, Texas and Florida hold about half of the U.S. Latino population, the fastest growth rates are in states like North Dakota (up 148% between 2010 and 2020) and South Dakota (up 75% over the same period).”
The growth has profound impact at many levels. In the last decade, for example, Latinos became the largest racial or ethnic group in California for the first time, a fact that explains why cities like Sacramento and San José are now major touring destinations for Latin artists of all stripes.
The direct result of a Latin population with acquisition power can be seen at the new SoFi Stadium, which opened in 2020 in the midst of the pandemic and hosted its first full stadium shows with Los Bukis, the romantic Mexican group that had its heyday in the 1990s, on Aug. 27 and 28, 2021. The stadium also hosted two nights of Bad Bunny this last September.
“The way we position ourselves is, we’re in Los Angeles, we’re in Inglewood, we’re 50% Latino,” says Adolfo Romero vp of programming for SoFi Stadium, Hollywood Park and YouTube Theater, which has held sold out shows by the likes of Rosalía and Mexican rockers Caifanes this year. “We looked at many different artists [for SoFi opening night] and when we saw this opportunity with Los Bukis, we were very aggressive. I think it kind of opened the eyes to the industry to see that Latin acts could do stadiums. That led us to do two nights of Grupo Firme in 2022, and now we have two nights of Bad Bunny.”
Romero says that when he booked Los Bukis for what would be their first-ever U.S. stadiums, the prospect of selling over 70,000 tickets for a Mexican nostalgia act didn’t make him loose sleep. “I come from [major league] soccer. If we can sell 70,000 plus for soccer here, what’s the difference?” he says. “It’s the same demographic. We have disposable income. A lot of our community was working in the service industry. Now, many of their kids are college grads.”
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 17): As holiday titles and heavy hitters vie for the top of the December charts, new albums from a star hip-hop producer and a couple of K-pop hitmakers join in the merriment.
Metro Boomin, Heroes & Villains (Boominati Worldwide/Republic): You might have thought the big album releases were starting to wind down for 2022, but Metro Boomin begs to differ. The Atlanta-via-St. Louis producer has been one of the biggest behind-the-scenes names in hip-hop for a decade, and new album Heroes & Villains shows off his Rolodex, with enough star collaborators — Future, Young Thug, Travis Scott, The Weeknd, 21 Savage, Gunna, even narrator Morgan Freeman — to justify an accompanying short film.
After dominating streaming charts on Spotify and Apple Music over the weekend, the set appears due for a big debut on the Billboard 200 — perhaps even one to challenge the producer’s Republic label-mate Taylor Swift and her five-week No. 1 Midnights for the chart’s top spot. (He hit No. 1 in 2020, with 21 Savage full-length team up Savage Mode II .) Though its consumption is mostly digital, Metro did release a CD version of Heroes & Villains to select physical retailers — and also debuted a deluxe “Heroes Version” of the album to streamers and digital retail on Monday, adding instrumental versions of each track.
RM, Indigo (Big Hit): Singer/songwriter/rapper RM released his solo debut, Indigo, on Friday, a varied album that features marquee R&B names Erykah Badu and Anderson .Paak, as well as veteran Korean hitmakers Tablo and Park Ji-yoon. BTS, the world-conquering group which RM previously achieved stardom with, scored five No. 1 albums over the past half-decade, from 2018’s Love Yourself: Tear to this June’s Proof.
His chart bow for Indigo this week will have to come without help from a physical release, as the set’s CD packages — which often move big numbers for Korea’s biggest pop acts — are not due until Dec. 16. Earlier this year, RM’s bandmate J-Hope entered the Billboard 200 at No. 17 with his own solo album debut Jack in the Box, also only from the support of a streaming and digital retail version of his album. (Jack has yet to be released on CD in the U.S.)
ITZY, Cheshire (JYP Entertainment/Dreamus/Republic): Korean pop quintet ITZY hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 for the first time in July with their sixth EP Checkmate. This week, they aim to return to the top tier with sixth EP, Cheshire, featuring advance English-language single “Boys Like You” — though technically it’s already in its second week of release, since the streaming and digital retail version of the set dropped last Wednesday (Nov. 30).
Cheshire’s chart performance will depend mostly on sales of its physical editions, which went on sale Friday. Like many K-pop releases, the CD came out in collectible deluxe packages (13 total, including versions exclusive to Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s official webstore), each with a standard set of items and randomized elements (such as photocards and a poster).
IN THE MIX
Backstreet Boys, A Very Backstreet Christmas (K-BAHN/BMG): The classic boy band’s first holiday set made its Billboard 200 debut back in October, but should surge on the chart this week following its Dec. 2 vinyl debut (and the approaching season). It’s only reached No. 17 so far, making this week its best chance of keeping alive Backstreet Boys‘ double-digit streak of consecutive top 10 albums.
Arcangel, Sr. Santos (Rimas Entertainment): Veteran reggaetón and Latin trap hitmaker Arcangel made a splashy return last Wednesday alongside perhaps the biggest male pop star on the planet with the Bad Bunny collab “La Jumpa.” That song should give Sr. Santos, the single’s 18-track parent album released on Friday — which also features appearances from Myke Towers, De La Ghetto and Bizarrap — a nice head start in consumption for this week.
Ivan Cornejo, Dañado (Manzana Records): Regional Mexican star Ivan Cornejo charted at No. 149 on the Billboard 200 in June with sophomore set Dañado, which has since climbed as high as No. 64 thanks to its stellar streaming performance. The seven-track mini-album received a deluxe reissue on Friday, with three new bonus tracks, which should give it a big boost from its current chart perch of No. 145.
TikTok has proven its success at renewing widespread interest around old songs countless times over the past several years. 2022 was no exception, as the short-form video platform announced Swedish Sadboy rapper Yung Lean’s 2013 track “Ginseng Strip 2002” was its most popular track of the year thanks to a trend of users singing along for about 10 seconds and then kissing at the end.
The nearly decade-old track was used in almost 11 million videos across the app in 2022, and while TikTok royalties are notoriously low to music rights holders, the upside proposition has been established that a viral hit there will drive streaming elsewhere. With “Ginseng Strip 2002,” that was most certainly true.
Since the “Ginseng Strip 2002” TikTok trend started to take off around the turn of the new year, its impact is relatively easy to compare year-over-year. And it’s considerable. As of Dec. 1, the track had been streamed more than 71 million times on-demand in 2022 in the U.S. That’s a 780% increase from the full year prior, and up over 1,070% when compared to the same 48-week period (Jan. 1-Dec. 1). To date, the track has over 206 million global streams on Spotify.
The viral success has undoubtedly been a pleasant surprise payday for Lean as well as his label, Swedish indie YEAR0001, and publisher Sony Publishing. Based off U.S. streams alone, the different rights holders have earned about $350,000 so far in 2022. Split up, that’s about $260,000 for the master recording to the label and artist, and $62,900 to the publisher and co-writers Yung Lean and Yung Gud, based on Billboard‘s estimates.
This is actually the second time “Ginseng Strip 2002” has gone viral. The casually hedonistic track that came together by accident during a microphone sound check, according to producer Yung Gud, first took off on YouTube in 2013. That quick success on YouTube caused Yung Lean some anxiety, as he told Beats 1 Radio in 2017. “I was kinda scared at one point that it was just gonna be a couple million views and some viral hit, and there wasn’t going to be anything else,” he said. “I was just trying to figure out my place and everything. I didn’t want to be a one-hit wonder.”
Yung Lean and YEAR0001 had not responded to a request for comment for this story at the time of publishing.
When Motown Records chairwoman and CEO Ethiopia Habtemariam announced on Tuesday she would be stepping down to “pursue new endeavors,” the news was met with surprise, concern and the one inevitable question: What’s next for the storied label founded by Berry Gordy?
“Nobody saw this coming,” says one veteran label executive of the stunning announcement, stemming from the fact that Habtemariam was promoted to the chairwoman/CEO post in March 2021, only 20 months ago. Her groundbreaking appointment as the third woman — and only the second one of color — ever to hold that title at a major label was concurrent with other major news: Motown was being re-established as a standalone label after first being under the Island Def Jam umbrella and most recently under the Capitol Music Group banner.
During Habtemariam’s tenure — which also includes six years as president — she has rebuilt Motown into the strongest position it’s held in years. After overseeing the label’s relocation from New York to Los Angeles in 2014, Habtemariam announced her first major signing in 2015: a joint venture with Atlanta-based Quality Control. The alliance yielded such now-marquee names as Lil Baby, Lil Yachty, Migos and City Girls for the label’s roster. Other entrepreneurial ventures ensued, including Blacksmith Recordings (Vince Staples) and Since the 1980s (Asiahn, Njomza), alongside roster mates Erykah Badu, Kem, Tiana Major9 and Nigerian star Tiwa Savage. This fall, Motown signed Youngboy Never Broke Again after inking a global joint venture with his Never Broke Again collective last year. Also new to the roster are Brandy and Sean “Diddy” Combs with a one-album deal for the first release from his R&B-focused label Love Records.
At the time of Habtemariam’s promotion to chairman in 2021, Motown’s overall U.S. market share was 0.85%, having grown from 0.4% in 2017 to 0.59% in 2020, and she’s since grown it further, to 0.95% to date in 2022. While catalog had primarily driven Motown’s performance in the past, its market share growth in 2020 and 2021 was largely due to its frontline commercial releases, thanks primarily to the QC roster, Staples and veteran R&B chart-topper Kem. In April 2021, its current market share — essentially the performance of music released in the 18 months prior to the measurement period — was just shy of 1%. That’s after averaging 0.14% from 2015 to 2019 and more than doubling that number to 0.32%, according to Luminate data. In 2022 so far, Motown’s current market share has risen to 1.30%.
Habtemariam has also wielded influence at the corporate level, too, having co-founded and served as co-chair of Universal’s Task Force for Meaningful Change, dedicated to supporting initiatives designed to support marginalized communities battling injustice, inequality and inclusion issues. Having spent 20 years at UMG in various roles, Habtemariam was well-respected internally, several sources note.
Habtemariam’s pending departure will leave only two people of color running major labels as chairmen/CEOs: Epic Records’ Sylvia Rhone, now in her eighth year at the label and third as chairman/CEO, and Def Jam Recordings’ Tunji Balogun, who will celebrate his first anniversary at the label in January. As to who will succeed Habtemariam, inside sources say nothing has been decided yet. And in talking to several other industry executives, no one had any contenders they wanted to suggest. Given past precedent, however, UMG could opt to have a senior executive oversee the label for an interim period, as happened in 2020 when Paul Rosenberg exited as Def Jam CEO and Universal tapped Jeffrey Harleston, its general counsel and executive vp of business & legal affairs, to temporarily oversee label operations while it conducted a search, which lasted almost two years and ultimately resulted in the appointment of Balogun. Universal Music Group had no comment when contacted.
Just as important as diversity and inclusion in the search for Motown’s next chief is what happens now with the label itself. Will it remain a standalone or be folded back into the Capitol Music Group or another sister label?
One senior-level executive notes that Motown “has never been set up to run on its own.” The label shares some services through Universal and still uses Capitol’s radio promotions team, while its market share still goes through Capitol Music Group, a setup similar to those at other UMG labels like Island, whose market share goes through Republic. Another label executive who agreed to talk on background said that while it’s too soon to predict what happens with Motown, bringing the label back under CMG isn’t an unrealistic scenario. In an uncertain economic climate that’s already sparked layoffs at CNN, Twitter and other companies, such a move would reduce overhead while strengthening Capitol’s R&B/hip-hop presence.
However, given the strides made under Habtemariam’s watch, one major label executive says Motown shouldn’t be viewed as “disposable.” They continue, “I would hope that Motown stays standalone. Its legacy remains an important part of Black culture and pop music, thanks to its generational talent then — and now.”
Additional reporting by Dan Rys.
How did Taylor Swift‘s 2023 Eras tour presale turn so calamitous? Ticketmaster service delays and website crashes outraged fans trying to buy tickets to the superstar’s 2023 tour this week, causing widespread outcry and condemnation for the ticket service as high up as Congress. And, finally, on Thursday (Nov. 17), company officials announced they had decided to cancel the general ticket sale scheduled for Friday — blaming a surge of unregistered fans and billions of bots for the failure.
Fans already bought up more than 90% of the ticketing inventory on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Ticketmaster, breaking the record Tuesday for the most tickets ever sold in a single day by a touring artist at 2 million. But with that success came catastrophe. More than 3.5 million fans registered for the chance to buy Swift tickets, and 1.5 million were invited to participate in Tuesday’s ticket sale for a crack at seats on the 52-date tour. Company officials say, however, it wasn’t pre-registered fans buying tickets who caused the crash on Tuesday, but that tens of millions of uninvited fans and billions of bots trying to access the sale early were to blame.
A Wednesday presale for Capital One card holders again brought a second unreported massive traffic of traffic to the site, as millions of fans — most without presale codes or an invitation — again tried to flood the presale meant only for a few hundred thousand card holders.
With little inventory left and even bigger crowds expected Friday, on Thursday Ticketmaster and Swift’s team decided to cancel the final onsale. It’s unclear how the remaining ticketing inventory will be distributed or sold. Meanwhile, the bad press has brought unwanted attention to the ticket giant.
Earlier Thursday, in an open letter to Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, chair of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights, argued that “Ticketmaster’s power in the primary ticket market insulates it from the competitive pressures that typically push companies to innovate and improve their services,” resulting in “dramatic service failures,” like the crash of Tuesday’s Taylor Swift sale.
Hours after the letter surfaced, Ticketmaster published a blog on its website offering an in-depth explanation of what caused the Swift presale to crash. Ticketmaster’s explanation for the crash — that it misjudged demand for presale tickets and was ill-prepared for the millions of fans that tried to log in — is not likely to satisfy Klobuchar and the bi-partisan criticism that the company is cutting corners due to it’s massive marketshare in the concert space.
According to Ticketmaster, about 3.5 million fans pre-registered for Taylor’s Verified Fan program — “the largest registration in history,” the company’s blog claims. The huge amount of demand “informed the artist team’s decision to add additional dates” to Taylor Swift’s Eras tour earlier this month, increasing the number of shows on sale from 26 to 52 stadium shows — 47 of which would be ticketed by Ticketmaster.
Despite doubling the number of shows that it was now selling tickets for, Ticketmaster didn’t increase the window of time it would need to process the large uptick in volume. That meant that instead of having 11 East Coast shows go on sale at the same time (10 a.m. EST), Ticketmaster was now putting 21 shows on sales at once.
Making matters worse, far more people showed up to buy tickets than was expected. On Monday night, the day before the presale, Ticketmaster sent out invitations to 1.5 million fans who had signed up for the presale with instruction on how to purchase tickets. “Historically, around 40% of invited fans actually show up and buy tickets,” according to Ticketmaster’s blog post, meaning Ticketmaster was only expecting about 600,000 people to actually try to log in. Not only did far more invitees show up, millions more uninvited guests tried to crash the party. Ticketmaster estimates that with uninvited guests and massive armies of bots, about 3.5 billion requests were made requesting access to the presale, causing the system to meltdown.
Company officials ended up having to do what they probably should have done in the first place — pushing back the remaining sales to give the Ticketmaster team more time to deal with the traffic issues and high demand. About 15% of fans attempting to buy Swift tickets experienced some type of disruption while trying to buy tickets or were unable to do so because of the site crash, according to the Ticketmaster blog. Still, the company did sell more than 2 million tickets that day — the most ever sold for a single artist in a day — and Ticketmaster has agreed to not allow Swift tickets to be sold on any of the secondary resale sites it controls, restricting markups to fans on its service.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 26): Two of the most historic names in rap and rock compete with a solo Directioner, as each of them try to knock Taylor Swift’s Midnights and Drake and 21 Savage’s Her Loss out of the top two spots.
Louis Tomlinson, Faith in the Future (BMG): Back in early 2020, Louis Tomlinson became the last of the five One Direction alums to release a solo album with the No. 9-peaking Walls. He seems likely to return to the top 10 next week with sophomore set Faith in the Future, released last Friday (Nov. 11), which Tomlinson recently described to Billboard as “the record I always wanted to make.”
Helping Tomlinson’s sales total for the new album will be a wide variety of physical options for sale: 10 vinyl variants (including a signed one), a Newbury Comics-exclusive CD with a signed insert, a Target-exclusive CD, a zine CD deluxe package, and even three cassettes.
Bruce Springsteen, Only the Strong Survive (Columbia): Only a handful of artists in history have visited the top of the Billboard 200 more often than The Boss, who has 11 No. 1 albums ranging from 1980’s The River to 2014’s High Hopes. Can he get there again with a new set of covers? He’ll try with Only the Strong Survive, which honors what Springsteen calls “the great American songbook of the ’60s and ’70s,” including classics made famous by Jerry Butler, Ben E. King and The Temptations.
He almost did once already. We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions, a tribute to folk legend Pete Seeger, peaked at No. 3 in 2006 — and every album of newly recorded studio material released by Springsteen so far this century has reached the chart’s top three.
Nas, King’s Disease III (Mass Appeal): Nas received acclaim for the first two installments of his King’s Disease series, both recorded with producer Hit-Boy — including a pair of top five entries on the Billboard 200 and a Grammy nomination each for best rap album, with the first set even giving the rapper his first Grammy win in 2019.
We’ll need to wait another year to find out if King’s Disease III can make it three-for-three with the Grammy recognition, but next week we’ll see if it can match the chart success of the first two. But unlike the first two sets, which boasted guest appearances from the starry likes of Lil Durk, Eminem and Ms. Lauryn Hill, King’s Disease III includes no big features.
In the Mix
GloRilla, Anyways, Life’s Great… (CMG/Interscope): GloRilla is one of this year’s hip-hop breakout success stories, with a pair of vicious Hot 100 hits in HitKidd collab “F.N.F.” and Cardi B teamup “Tomorrow 2,” and now a Grammy nomination for the former in best rap performance. Both songs are featured on her debut EP, Anyways, Life’s Great…, along with seven other hard-hitting tracks to prime audiences for one of the most-anticipated rap debut albums of the next few years.
Rauw Alejandro, Saturno (Sony Music Latin/Duars): Few Latin pop stars outside of his “Party” collaborator Bad Bunny have been as visible on the Billboard charts recently as Rauw Alejandro, who scored his first Hot 100 top 40 hit last year with “Todo de Ti” and has kept the momentum going in 2022 with hits like “Desperados” and “Lokera.” It’s led to the release of his high-octane third studio album, Saturno, which features Alejandro motoring down the same dark, neon-lit sonic highways as The Weeknd’s last couple efforts.
Wizkid, More Love, Less Ego (Starboy/RCA): It’s been a slow and steady trek to global domination for Afrobeats star Wizkid, who topped the Hot 100 in 2016 as a guest on Drake’s “One Dance” and hit the top 10 as a lead artist in 2021 with the unstoppable “Essence.” The Nigerian star takes another victory lap with this month’s More Love, Less Ego, boosted by an internationally streamed live performance in London this Monday, hosted by Apple Music.
Guns N’ Roses, Use Your Illusion (UMG): Guns N’ Roses‘ dual album set of Use Your Illusion I & II debuted in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 back in October 1991 — with II inching past its counterpart. The two sets are combined on this month’s Use Your Illusion (Super Deluxe) box set of seven CDs and 12 LPs, including two early-’90s live shows, while CD and vinyl reissues of each of the individual UYI sets are also available for purchase.
This past summer, the second-largest U.S. bank, Bank of America, looked at how its customers’ spending on entertainment for the month of May compared with a year ago. What researchers found was surprisingly positive for the touring industry, and there are signs the good news is holding steady, at least for now.
Spending on concert, theater and movie tickets in May was up across all income groups. Moderate- and high-income earners — households bringing in over $50,000 and over $125,000 in annual income, respectively — exhibited the most pent-up demand, with spending levels up more than 40% in May compared with May 2021.
Demand among lower-income consumers — households earning less than $50,000 a year — was up almost as much, rising roughly 38% year to year.
In October, Bank of America surveyed its customers again to ask if they expect to increase spending in the next 12 months in a number of categories including in-home entertainment. With inflation cutting into or erasing most Americans’ pandemic cash buffers, credit card spending is on the rise, and with companies proactively laying off staff in anticipation of a recession, 21% said they plan on reducing what they spend on in-home entertainment either moderately or significantly in the next 12 months. (Sixty percent said they planned no change to their spending.)
Bank of America does not have current data on whether consumers plan to cut back on concerts and other entertainment outside their homes, so the live-music industry will have to hope that consumers will pare down their audio and video streaming service subscriptions so that they can continue seeing their favorite acts at local venues while enjoying their concession fare and buying merchandise.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect they will. Although they predict growth in the global live-music industry to slow somewhat next year, they forecast it will still put up a 4% compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2030.
In 2022 so far, the industry has seen 5% growth in revenue despite a number of high-profile tour cancellations. Growth this year is on par with the 5% compound annual growth rate the industry experienced from 2007 to 2019.
Looking at the numbers on a more granular level reveals that the global live-music industry grew most sharply between 2007 and 2009 at the onset of the global financial crisis.
During that time, industry revenue rose from $17 billion in 2007 to over $20 billion in 2009, according to research by Goldman Sachs. But between 2010 and 2015, the industry had several years of essentially no growth as the effects of the crisis — unemployment above 10%, nationwide foreclosures — caused deep financial pain.
Even then, the live-music industry grew overall by roughly $3 billion, from $22 billion to $25 billion, during that period of austerity.
Music is often called recession-proof, and while that may hold true, the touring industry feels vulnerable, given the on-again, off-again reality that artists, promoters, venues and their support have had to contend with through the pandemic. For now, industry experts say consumers continue to spend, the industry’s revenue will continue to grow, and even in a worsening economic climate, the shows will go on.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 12): Taylor Swift’s record-setting Midnights enters its second frame, facing competition from rap star Kodak Black, rising country singer-songwriter Lainey Wilson, and a quartet of up-and-comers from Liverpool.
The Beatles, Revolver: Special Edition (Apple)
It was No. 1 for six weeks in September and October 1966, and 56 years later it could top the Billboard 200 again. The Beatles’ Revolver, widely regarded as one of the greatest rock albums of all time, was reissued on Oct. 28 in a new Special Edition, centered around a stereo remix of the album from Giles Martin (son of original Revolver producer George Martin) and Sam Okell.
The set comes in a variety of different packages: a five-CD (or four-LP plus one 7-inch vinyl) super deluxe version featuring dozens of bonus demos and sessions, a two-CD/LP deluxe version with 15 bonus “Revolver Sessions Highlights,” and a one-CD/LP version with just the original remixed album. (All versions of the album, old and new, are combined for tracking and charting purposes.) The Beatles have already released ambitious box sets dedicated to Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, The Beatles (The White Album), Abbey Road and Let It Be — all of which returned to the Billboard 200’s top 10.
Kodak Black, Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1 (Atlantic)
Billboard reported last week that hip-hop star Kodak Black will head to Capitol Records when his current deal with Atlantic is through — but he still owes the latter label two albums. The first of them dropped Friday: Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1, the Florida rapper’s second 2022 release, following February’s Back for Everything.
Kodak is familiar with the Billboard 200’s top spot, as his 2018 album Dying to Live reigned for one week, while Back for Everything debuted at No. 2 behind the Encanto soundtrack. Kutthroat doesn’t have a crossover single as massive as those sets’ “ZEZE” and “Super Gremlin,” respectively — both of which reached the Billboard Hot 100‘s top five — but it does have a streaming-friendly 19 tracks, and a recent Hot 100 debut with the woozy advance single “Walk.”
Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country (BBR)
“Lainey Wilson is the next superstar for the format,” proclaimed Charlie Cook, vp Country Format at Cumulus, to Billboard in September. Wilson will show how close she’s gotten to fulfilling that prediction with the release of Bell Bottom Country, her second album since signing to BBR. The set — which like her previous release is produced by Jay Joyce — is preceded by two hit Wilson duets from earlier this year: “Never Say Never” with Cole Swindell (a Country Airplay No. 1) and “Wait in the Truck” with HARDY. Neither cut appears on Bell Bottom Country, but her own “Heart Like a Truck” does — hitting a new peak of No. 23 on Country Airplay this week — as does a cover of ’90s rockers 4 Non Blondes’ karaoke classic “What’s Up?”
IN THE MIX
Baby Keem, The Melodic Blue (pgLang/Columbia): Reigning best new artist Grammy winner Baby Keem’s debut album has been on the Billboard 200 since it debuted at No. 5 in Sept. 2021, sitting at No. 105 on the current week’s chart. Expect it to climb higher next week, thanks to a deluxe reissue with seven new bonus tracks, including guest spots from streaming fixtures Don Toliver, PinkPantheress and Lil Uzi Vert.
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Vol. 44 (Rhino): The legendary jam band is a regular on the Billboard 200 with the Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux. The most recent set, July’s Vol. 43, was the highest-charting on the Billboard 200 to date, reaching No. 11; if Vol. 44 makes the chart’s top 10, it would be the first Dead album to score that high since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Smino, Luv 4 Rent (Zero Fatigue/Motown): The acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter’s third album is also his first since announcing the new partnership between his indie/collective Zero Fatigue and the iconic Motown label. The 15-track set includes collaborations with R&B sensations Lucky Daye and Ravyn Lanae, as well as rap superstars J. Cole and (again) Lil Uzi Vert.
Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): The best-selling original album in pop music history remains a Billboard 200 fixture; it’s No. 61 this week, in its 545th week on the chart. But it’s also a Spooky Season perennial, thanks largely to its eerie, Vincent Price-narrated title track. Last year the set jumped to No. 25 on the chart following Halloween, and it should be due for another big leap this November.
