State Champ Radio analysis
Page: 10
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 4), SZA’s SOS remains in the driver’s seat on the Billboard 200 albums chart, but runs into new albums by country hitmaker HARDY, prolific rapper Trippie Redd and rock revivalists Måneskin.
HARDY, The Mockingbird & The Crow (Big Loud). Few country radio fixtures know as much about how to succeed in an era dominated by hip-hop- and streaming as Michael Wilson Hardy. The genre-blending singer-songwriter has collaborated with countless artists, released several mixtapes, and generally been as prolific as any popular rapper over the past half-decade – while remaining a steady chart presence, with Hot 100 top 40 hits in the past year alongside Breland and Dierks Bentley (“Beers on Me”) and Lainey Wilson (“Wait in the Truck.”)
The latter single can be found on HARDY’s 17-track The Mockingbird & The Crow set, released last Friday (Jan. 27), as part of the album’s country-oriented A-side – with its second half taking on a hard rock bent. The album appears to be selling well digitally, leading the iTunes albums chart for most of the week. If it does claim the Billboard 200’s No. 1 position, it would be the first country album to do so since Dangerous: The Double Album, the blockbuster 2021 chart-topper from Morgan Wallen – who, incidentally, is also featured on Mockingbird’s “Red.”
Trippie Redd, Mansion Musik (1400 Entertainment/10K Projects). One of the great volume shooters of hip-hop’s past five years, Trippie Redd returned from an unusually lengthy two-year album break last week with the 25-track Mansion Musik. The set consists entirely of previously unreleased material, and is predictably loaded with A-list guests, including Future, Lil Baby, Travis Scott, Lil Durk, and even the late Juice WRLD — who appears on “Knight Crawler,” which led Spotify’s most recent New Music Friday playlist. Each of Trippie’s past six full-length projects have reached the Billboard 200’s top five, and Mansion Musik should have a good chance to extend its streak to seven.
Måneskin, Rush (Epic/Sony). Italian fourpiece Måneskin parlayed a Eurovision win into global rock stardom in 2021 – boosted by TikTok-accelerated crossover success for a cover of The Four Seasons’ “Beggin’” and a series of incendiary live performances on U.S. television. About a year and a half later, the band has finally released its English-language debut album Rush, featuring their rock radio hit “Supermodel” and contributions from pop-rock super-writer-producers like Rami Yacoub, Mattman & Robin and Max Martin.
Måneskin are still relatively modest performers among big hitmakers when it comes to U.S. streaming, so their Billboard 200 performance will likely largely be dictated by sales. To that end, the quartet has released a variety of physical variants of Rush, with vinyl, CD and cassette versions, and a box set edition that collects all three formats, along with a poster and 64-page photobook. The group has also made old-fashioned record store promotional appearances during the album’s release week, including New York-area shops Rough Trade NYC and Looney Tunes.
IN THE MIX
Ice Spice, Like…? (10K Projects/Capitol): One of the most buzzed-about new rappers of 2022 arrives with her first EP, named after her “Like..?” mini-catchphrase. The six-track set includes Ice Spice‘s internet-conquering breakout tracks “Munch (Feelin’ U)” and “Bikini Bottom,” as well as the new, Lil Tjay-featuring “Gangsta Boo,” and the currently ascending TikTok favorite “In Ha Mood.”
Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, Déjà Vu (Atlantic): Following the death of ‘60s rock legend David Crosby, the enduring material he was involved with as part of The Byrds and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young have naturally surged in sales and streams. The biggest beneficiary so far appears to be CSNY’s 1970 classic Déjà Vu, featuring signature songs like “Teach Your Children,” “Our House” and “Helpless” — though the latter is one of several Déjà Vu tracks not currently available on Spotify, due to songwriter Neil Young’s continued protests of the streaming service.
Six months ago, in an email to staff, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said that the company would “be a bit more prudent” in its hiring over the next few quarters. That came a week after Spotify’s June 8, 2022, investor day presentation on its plans to improve its margins.
The key would be podcasts, executives said, along with a new foray into audiobooks. Within three to five years, podcasts could bring in gross margins of 30-35%, which could later rise to 40-50% — far more than the company can earn from recorded music.
The company’s podcast business hasn’t come cheap, though. Spotify – which on Monday (Jan. 23) announced plays to lay off 6% of its workforce, as well as the voluntary departure of chief content officer Dawn Ostroff – spent hundreds of millions of dollars acquiring podcast start-up and programing. Ostroff spent big to get exclusive rights to The Joe Rogan Experience, as well as projects from Barack and Michelle Obama’s Higher Ground Productions; Kim Kardashian; and Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, and Meghan Markle.
From a programming perspective, the podcasts worked. Spotify is now the most popular podcast platform in the U.S., as well as many other markets, and the exclusive programming helps attract advertisers. The company also introduced new podcast advertising formats that helped it grow its podcasting business to $200 million annually.
The podcasts didn’t solve Spotify’s financial issues, though. The company has always grown fast by any measure, including audience, subscribers, and revenue. But since it paid out a significant share of its revenue to labels and publishers, Spotify never had the profit margins of former Wall Street darlings like Facebook and Netflix. Podcasts were supposed to solve this, but they cost so much up front that they caused a $103 million drag on gross profit, CFO Paul Vogel said during the June presentation.
Last year was difficult for stocks in general, especially those of many technology companies, but Spotify has suffered more than most. Riding high on lockdown-time gains, its share price peaked at $364.59 on Feb. 19, 2021. By a year later, it had fallen 58% to $152.27, and then on Nov. 4, 2022 bottomed out at $69.29 — 81% below its all-time high closing price. Had it made more progress on improving margins, Spotify’s share price probably would have weathered the storm a bit better.
Now, the market will find out if the adage “to cut is to cure” applies to the music streaming business. The layoffs Spotify announced Monday will involve around 600 employees. Not among them is chief content officer Dawn Ostroff, who chose to depart the company. Alex Norström, currently chief freemium business officer, will be responsible for product and will share co-president title with Gustav Söderström, currently chief research & development officer.
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet believes the layoffs are about “trying to stem the losses in podcasting.” Investors aren’t convinced Spotify has a viable business model, he says. “The revenues have done well but there’s not a lot of cash flow. A lot gets paid back to the labels.”
The market’s response to the news was positive, but muted. Spotify shares closed on Monday at $99.94, up 2.1%, after spiking to $104.00 that morning.
Overall, podcasting doesn’t seem to be working as well, or as quickly, as Spotify had hoped. While Spotify beat expectations for subscribers and monthly active users in the third quarter, its gross margin and operating loss were below earlier guidance.
The podcast business is an obvious place for Spotify to start cutting. The company began paring expenses in October by eliminating some original podcasts and cutting “at least” 37 positions at its Parcast and Gimlet studios.
“I think it’s the right strategy,” says Bazinet. “It’s going to be difficult to shift the balance of power with record labels.”
Now, the goal is to make Spotify more efficient, according to CEO Daniel Ek’s open letter released on Monday. “In hindsight, I was too ambitious in investing ahead of our revenue growth,” Ek wrote – meaning investing in personnel, not companies. The layoffs, as well as an organizational restructuring, will both control costs and quicken decision-making, he explained. Ek isn’t alone in highlighting efficiency lately. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has taken a hard line on underperforming employees. New Twitter CEO Elon Musk expects whatever workers remain at the company to be “extremely hardcore.”
Spotify’s numbers suggest that the company may have room for improvement. Bazinet points out that in 2016 Spotify’s roughly 2,100 employees generated an average of 1.41 million euros per person while in 2021 its 6,600 employees’ per-head revenue was 1.46 million euros. That implies that Spotify failed to achieve the kind of operating leverage that would create additional value as it added employees.
As for Ostroff, her departure could mark the end of the first chapter of Spotify’s podcast business. Neither Spotify nor investors seem to have much appetite for writing big checks these days. And exclusive content seems to have an inherently limited life span. Obama’s Higher Ground Productions left for Amazon. Brené Brown’s two exclusive podcasts, Unlocking Us and Dare to Lead, have come to an end.
Ostroff certainly made her mark on the company, though. The Joe Rogan Experience has battled through controversies to become the platform’s most popular podcast, heard by a quarter of Spotify users; and 19% of all podcast listeners in the U.S. listen to TJRE, according to a recent Morgan Stanley survey. Kardashian’s true crime podcast got off to a great start in October by beating TJRE and Markle’s Archetypes. Spotify’s foray into spoken-word audio may have been costly, but it was effective.
Now, Spotify enters a new phase of cost conscientiousness. With the layoffs and reorganization, it has given investors a tangible commitment to deliver on the aggressive goals it laid out in June. That heightens expectations, though. If Spotify can’t maintain its growth with a slightly smaller headcount, it will be hard for it to deliver better margins – and the market is unlikely to be forgiving.
With Tuesday’s flurry of festival lineups — including Boston Calling, Bonnaroo, Sonic Temple Festival, and, finally, Coachella — the 2023 North American festival season formally kicked off, and music fans can expect more announcements to follow.
This figurative ringing of the bell is typically reserved for Coachella (and Coachella alone), which usually announces its lineup the first week of January. But when Los Angeles-based concert promoter Goldenvoice didn’t deliver on time — for unexplained reasons — it left some executives wondering what to expect from potential ripple effects throughout the festival circuit.
That’s due to Coachella’s contracts and stature in the business. Coachella’s artist contracts come with radius clauses that give the Southern California festival first right to announce its artist lineup in the region. As such, festivals have worked out a largely unspoken schedule for announcing their lineups after Coachella goes first, and then navigating similar first-announce and radius clauses other major festivals may have.
In this case, Live Nation-owned festivals Boston Calling and Bonnaroo booked 070 Shake, Sofi Tukker and Knocked Out, who were playing Coachella as well. Both lineups were slated to drop on Jan. 10 — but with the morning of the 10th approaching and no Coachella lineup announced, agents for the acts had to check in with Goldenvoice to let them know about the Bonnaroo and Boston Calling announcements.
Making things more complicated was that both Live Nation-owned festivals, along with the Danny Wimmer Presents-owned Sonic Temple Festival in Columbus, Ohio, had coordinated their lineup announcements to take place hours apart on Jan. 10 at the request of the Foo Fighters, who wanted a somber announcement surrounding their return to the stage following longtime drummer Taylor Hawkins’ death last March.
Goldenvoice president/CEO Paul Tollett told the agencies there was no problem with the lineup announcements happening before Coachella, and a small dustup was easily avoided. The episode, however, is illustrative of how a small group of concert promoters, powerful booking agents and contract attorneys regulate and protect the music festival industry.
At the top of that system is Coachella, a cultural and economic juggernaut that sells more than $100 million worth of tickets each year over two weekends in mid-April, making it the first major festival to take place each year. In order to protect the massive investment in artist fees it pays each year, AEG-owned Goldenvoice requires artists to sign radius clauses agreeing not to announce their participation in festivals that take place in California, or in states neighboring California, until after their performance at Coachella. Artists participating in festivals in states not neighboring California generally only have to wait until after the Coachella lineup announcement before publicizing their involvement in other events.
Today, most major festivals use radius clauses to restrict participating artists from performing at competing events that fall too close geographically or chronologically. Managing this complex web of obligations and radius clauses typically falls on an artist’s booking agent, who negotiates the agreements between festivals and artists while managing their client’s radius clause obligations throughout the touring cycle.
In order to avoid violating each other’s radius clauses, since 2014, festivals that take place in the first part of the year have worked on a schedule starting in the first week of January for announcing their lineups. From 2014 to 2020, the lineup for Coachella was announced during the first week of January. But for the last two years, following the pandemic and the cancellation of the 2020 and 2021 festivals, Coachella’s lineup announcement hasn’t taken place until the second week of January, causing minor delays to festival lineup announcements that have traditionally followed Coachella.
While some of Coachella’s critics say the festival’s pole position in the lineup announcement hierarchy affords Goldenvoice far too much power over smaller festivals, one booking agent told Billboard that Tollett is “exactly the type of person you want in that position.”
“He wants to protect his event, which he spends tens of millions of dollars on each year. He’s first in line because his event is the major festival each year,” says the agent. “But if he needs a little more time to announce his festival, he’s going to accommodate the requests of any festival he impacts. He’s fair and always does the right thing.”
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS continues to dominate, while YoungBoy Never Broke Again makes a quick return after a busy 2022 and a half-decade-old BTS album debuts on vinyl.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, I Rest My Case (Motown/Never Broke Again): After an absurdly prolific 2022 that included seven full-length releases – two collaborative albums, four mixtapes and one official album – star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again returns, just two weeks into 2023, with his fifth solo studio album, I Rest My Case. The 19-track set is his first release on his new Motown label, after completing his deal with Atlantic in 2022.
From the early returns, YoungBoy’s previous productivity may be working against him, since the album’s tracks have not taken over the daily DSP charts like past YoungBoy solo albums, the last three of which hit the Billboard 200’s top two. Case will also not be helped by any big-name guests, since the album has no features on its 11 tracks. It will have its work cut out for it getting YoungBoy back to the chart’s top five, let alone threatening the four-week reign of SZA’s SOS blockbuster, which shows little sign of slowing down in its fifth week.
BTS, Love Yourself: Her (Big Hit/Universal): The Love Yourself: Her EP release marked a big U.S. breakthrough for K-Pop superstars BTS back in 2017, reaching the Billboard 200’s top 10 and spawning their first two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “DNA” and “Mic Drop.” The EP is likely to return to the chart’s top tier after making its physical debut on vinyl — the septet’s first-ever release on the format — along with a package that includes seven photo cards (one for each member), two posters, a sticker and a bookmark.
French Montana & DJ Drama, Coke Boys 6 (Coke Boys): Outside of YoungBoy, few hip-hop artists were as prolific on the 2022 charts as DJ Drama, who notched hit albums alongside Jeezy, Snoop Dogg and several other big-name rappers. He’s back this week with veteran New York hitmaker French Montana, for the latest installment in the latter’s signature Coke Boys series. CB6 boasts 20 tracks and a wide variety of big-name guests, including fellow rap stars Kodak Black, Nav and A$AP Rocky, and the set already has its own Money Heist Edition deluxe reissue, adding an extra nine tracks to the total.
Mariah Carey may have had the most popular song of the 2022 holiday season, but Pentatonix was its most-listened-to act. The five-person vocal group had 92 recordings in the top 10,000 holiday tracks and total consumption of 2.58 million song units, based on sales and streams from Nov. 4 to Dec. 22, according to Luminate — more than any other artist.
While Pentatonix doesn’t have the same kinds of smash singles as Christmas-time mainstays like Carey, Andy Williams and Burl Ives, the group uses a combination of quantity and popularity to drive its seasonal success. Pentatonix’s top holiday track, a cover of Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah,” ranked No. 43 and accounted for about 10.5% of its total track consumption. Its cover of the David Foster-Jennifer Thompson-Jenner song “Grown Up Christmas List” ranked No. 187 and its rendition of the traditional songs “O Come All Ye Faithful” and “Deck the Halls” were Nos. 189 and 191, respectively. Additionally, Pentatonix’s collaboration with Maren Morris, “When You Believe,” from the 1998 animated feature The Price of Egypt, ranked No. 188.
While most artists are content with the occasional holiday release, Pentatonix has released four studio albums comprised mostly or entirely of holiday music since Oct. 2018: Christmas Is Here! In 2018, We Need a Little Christmas in 2020, Evergreen in 2021 and Holidays Around the World in 2022. In addition, the group released a compilation album, The Best of Pentatonix Christmas, in 2019. Some recordings from its 2012 EP PTXmas and its 2014 album That’s Christmas to Me remain popular to this day. In addition, each November and December, the group tours U.S. arenas to perform holiday music.
Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You” was once again the most popular holiday track with 1.29 million song units, narrowly beating the 1.24 million song units of Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree.” But Carey, the self-described “Queen of Christmas,” doesn’t have Pentatonix’s depth of holiday catalog. She ranked fifth in total consumption with 1.96 million units from 36 tracks within the top 10,000. Her second-most popular holiday recording, a cover of Darlene Love’s 1963 standard “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home),” ranked only No. 68. Her 2010 original recording “Oh! Santa” ranked No. 110 and her version of the traditional Christmas carol “Hark! The Herald Angels Sing” was No. 130.
The No. 2 holiday artist was Bing Crosby with 2.43 million song units from 61 tracks in the top 10,000. Crosby’s top recording, “White Christmas,” was No. 13. “Hawaiian Christmas Song” at No. 38, “Winter Wonderland” at No. 63, “Silent Night” at No. 72, “I’ll Be Home for Christmas” at No. 83, “The Little Drummer Boy” at No. 86 and “Do You Hear What I Hear?” at No. 95.
At No. 3 was Michael Bublé, whose 25 recordings in the top 10,000 amassed 2.39 million song units. Bublé had numerous songs in the top 100, including “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” at No. 16, “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” at No. 31, “I’ll Be Home for Christmas” at No. 45 and “Holly Jolly Christmas” at No. 46. Bublé also stands out for having numerous recordings in the top 100 that are the second-most popular versions of the songs. (Burl Ives’ version of “Holly Jolly Christmas,” ranked No. 4 while Perry Como’s “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” ranked No. 10.) But Bublé is also notable for knocking off some holiday legends. His 19-year-old version of “I’ll Be Home for Christmas” ranks 38 slots above Bing Crosby’s historic recording from 1943.
Nat King Cole ranked fourth in holiday music consumption with 2.1 million song units from 33 recordings in the top 10,000. Cole’s top recordings were his now-standard versions of “The Christmas Song” at No. 12 and “Deck the Halls” at No. 15. “O Come All Ye Faithful” and “Joy to the World” were also in the top 100, at Nos. 51 and 82, respectively.
After Carey at No. 5, artists in the top 10 were Andy Williams (1.84 million), Frank Sinatra (1.71 million), Perry Como (1.38 million), Burl Ives (1.37 million) and Brenda Lee (1.31 million).
This year, a handful of new recordings beat long odds and were among the 50 most popular holiday tracks: Lizzo’s cover of Stevie Wonder’s “Someday at Christmas” and Lauren Spencer-Smith’s version of “Last Christmas” by Wham! ranked Nos. 39 and 47, respectively, in consumption – measuring track sales and streams – from Nov. 4 to Dec. 22, according to Luminate. Kane Brown’s version of “Blue Christmas,” made famous by Elvis Presley, ranked No. 48.
If historical trends persist, though, many of this year’s new holiday recordings won’t even survive the summer. Creating a holiday standard is one of the most difficult, unlikely tasks in all of songwriting.
Looking back over the last five years shows the slim odds a new recording faces in becoming an annual favorite. In 2017, 72 newly released tracks made the top 1,000 holiday recordings of the last two months of the year. Three of them — Sia’s “Santa’s Coming for Us” (No. 37), Pentatonix’s “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!” (No. 68) and Us the Duo’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” (No. 98) — made the top 100. Gwen Stefani had eight of the 72 new recordings in the top 1,000. Hanson’s “Finally, It’s Christmas,” at No. 610, was an original song competing against new recordings of well-worn favorites like “Wonderful Christmastime” and “The Christmas Song.”
Five years later, only 30 recordings released in 2017 remained in the top 1,000. Sia’s “Santa’s Coming for Us” dropped from No. 37 to No. 171, while her song “Snowman” has risen to No. 53 to become the most popular recording of the class of 2017. Stefani had only three recordings from 2017 in the top 1,000, and her top-ranked holiday song, “You Make It Feel Like Christmas,” released in 2011, slipped to No. 42 from No. 18 five years earlier. Hanson was in the top 1,000 — with “What Christmas Means to Me,” originally recorded by Stevie Wonder in 1967, not its original song from five years earlier.
To become a holiday favorite, a new recording must prove itself by competing against popular holiday songs that have withstood decades-long wars of attrition. Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is a relatively young holiday standard at 28 years old. “Last Christmas” by Wham!, ranked No. 5 this holiday season, is 36. Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (No. 7) and Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” (No. 8), just 8 and 12 years old, respectively, have beaten the odds to challenge established recordings like Andy Williams’ “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” (No. 6), released in 1963 and often heard in advertisements and movie soundtracks.
That weeding-out process isn’t enough to deter songwriters from trying to create the next holiday hit and collect royalty checks year after year, though. This year, Chris Isaak, Backstreet Boys and Thomas Rhett released albums or EPs of Christmas songs. Sam Smith, Alanis Morissette, Dan + Shay, Joss Stone, Lukas Graham and Remi Wolf released individual tracks.
Even though the odds of writing a holiday standard are slim, the payoff is a lure, says Rhett Miller, singer for the alt-country band The Old 97’s. Miller and his musician friends have told “a probably apocryphal story” amongst themselves about musician Nick Lowe walking to his mailbox one day in a bath robe and finding a check for a million dollars not knowing that Curtis Stigers’ cover of his song “Peace, Love and Understanding” was featured on the soundtrack to the movie The Bodyguard that would go on to sell 44 million copies worldwide.
“In the olden days, landing a song on a soundtrack like that was sort of the end all be all,” says Miller. “But, really, the Christmas song is the biggest dream of any songwriter — to have a song that connects and becomes a standard.” Miller acknowledges the long odds a holiday recording faces in becoming a recurring hit. Writing a holiday standard is like winning the lottery: A jackpot is exceedingly unlikely, but, as the saying goes, you can’t win if you don’t play. “I did have an idea that if we contributed an album of holiday songs to the conversation, we would at least be in the running for one of those songs that connected,” says Miller.
Miller has the benefit of having an influential company in his corner: Disney. James Gunn, writer and director of Marvel Comics’ Guardians of the Galaxy movie franchise, cast the Old 97’s for the Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special that premiered on Disney+ video on-demand streaming service in November. The Old 97’s re-recorded their original song, “Here It Is Christmastime,” with actor-singer Kevin Bacon, and performed the song wearing prosthetic makeup. That helped “Here It Is Christmastime” debut at No. 7 on the Holiday Digital Song Sales and No. 27 on the all-genre Digital Song Sales charts for Dec. 10. Although the recording ranks only at No. 865 this holiday season, it will likely benefit from Marvel Comics fans viewing the special in the coming years.
In the streaming age, nothing helps posterity like a partnership with a giant multi-national entertainment platform. Lizzo, Spencer-Smith and Brown, the top of the Class of 2022, recorded their holiday tracks under exclusive partnership with Amazon Music. In earlier years, Amazon Music has released original holiday recordings by Katy Perry (“Cozy Little Christmas” in 2018), Carrie Underwood (an original song, “Favorite Time of the Year,” in 2020), John Legend (“Happy Christmas [War Is Over]” in 2019), Taylor Swift (“Christmas Tree Farm [Old Timey Version]” in 2019) and Camila Cabello (“I’ll Be Home for Christmas” in 2021).
“Each year, we really look to work with artists that we know our customers love and who we think are going to be a good fit for our holiday listeners and really work with them to find the right track,” says Stephen Brower, global co-lead, artist relations at Amazon Music, “whether that’s a cover in the case of Lizzo doing Stevie Wonder’s ‘Someday at Christmas’ or in Katy and Carrie’s cases, having brand new songs.”
What holiday listeners seem to want every November and December is comfort music that harkens back to eras bygone. Even an original holiday song must have a classic, throwback sound that takes from late ’50s and early ’60s pop and rock. The rockabilly in Bobby Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock” and Phil Spector’s “wall of sound” production in The Ronettes “Sleigh Ride” set a template that’s been closely followed by later artists. “Ever since Mariah, only songs that had that ’60s Spector feel seem to be getting any traction,” says Sean Ross, author of the Ross on Radio newsletter.
Christmas is no time to reinvent the wheel. Recreating the sounds of Christmas past gives Lizzo, Spencer-Smith and Brown the best chance at capturing an audience and maintaining momentum for the next five years. “Because the Christmas music season is typically only about six weeks, people don’t get tired of them,” Tom Poleman, chief programming officer for iHeartMedia, says in an email to Billboard. “As a result, there’s a huge supply of great songs to play, making it hard for new ones to cut through. The ones that do break through are usually well-made remakes of holiday classics by a big star like Kelly Clarkson.”
This holiday season, Clarkson’s covers of Chuck Berry’s “Run Run Rudolph” (No. 103) and Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (No. 238) were the first and second most popular versions of those songs after the originals. She also has popular versions of “My Favorite Things” (No. 282), “Please Come Home for Christmas” (No. 317) and “Silent Night” (No. 382). But Clarkson is the rare contemporary artist whose original songs are more popular than her covers. In a few years, “Under the Mistletoe” (No. 105) from 2020 and “Christmas Isn’t Canceled (You Are)” (No. 168) from 2021 could become the next “Underneath the Tree” (No. 8).
Miller is aware of the long odds that “Here It Is Christmastime” faces in the coming years – but he’s hopeful he can have a Clarkson-level hit one day. “It’s going to be something,” he says. “But will it be my Nick Lowe-in-a-bath robe moment? I don’t know. It would be great if something broke through.”
While 2022 will be remembered as the year that Taylor Swift made history as the first artist to populate the entire top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 with songs from her album Midnights (among other chart records), Billboard’s annual Money Makers ranking of music’s top royalty and box-office earners reveals that she dominated 2021 as well.
Swift, who released two (Taylor’s Version) rerecorded albums, finished the year as the No. 1 earner globally with an estimated $65.8 million in take-home pay. That’s an impressive sum considering she did not tour, which usually constitutes the lion’s share of an act’s annual income, and last year’s runner-up, The Rolling Stones, spent three months on the road last fall concluding their No Filter Tour.
Swift topped the ranking because she owns half of her studio record catalog and because of the strength of her sales and streaming income, $29.8 million and $28.9 million, respectively, in a year that saw her international streams surpass her U.S. streams, 9 billion to 6.8 billion, a 34% increase.
The Stones’ live dates, all of which took place in the United States, resulted in a $44.5 million box-office take. That played the biggest role in boosting the veteran rockers to No. 1 on Billboard’s U.S. Money Makers ranking with a total income of $50.8 million.
But Swift, who finished second in the U.S. ranking — she and the Stones have swapped the top two spots since 2018 — was not far behind with $38.8 million, largely on the strength of her master recording royalties.
Compared side-by-side, the top five earners on the global and U.S. Money Makers rankings are nearly identical, with Harry Styles holding the No. 3 spot on both, $41.3 million and $37 million, respectively; and Drake at No. 5, with $30.7 million and $23.8 million. The big difference can be found at No. 4, where K-pop superstars BTS reside on the global ranking, with a $38.4 million in 2021 take-home pay, and the hard-touring Eagles occupy the U.S. tally, with earnings of $27.3 million.
Methodology
Money Makers was compiled with 2021 Luminate and Billboard Boxscore data, the RIAA’s physical and digital revenue report for 2021, and IFPI global revenue statistics. All revenue figures cited are Billboard estimates and may not equal the sum of the subcategories due to rounding and the omission of revenue categories. Global sales were extrapolated for 21 artists that ranked highest on the 2020 Money Makers list. Global artist royalties were extrapolated using U.S. revenue totals, minus 30% of international royalties in line with major-label contractual clauses for foreign distribution.
U.S. formulas were used to estimate publishing revenue. Calculating royalties from master-recording performance rights was not possible because those rights do not exist for most uses in the United States. Unless otherwise noted, references to streaming totals consist of combined on-demand audio, video and programmed streams. References to recording-career totals are the sum of an act’s sales, streaming and publishing earnings. Revenue from featured-artist appearances, merchandising, synchronization and sponsorship is not included. Touring revenue, after the manager’s cut, equals 34% of an act’s Boxscore. Sales royalties were calculated based on physical and digital albums and track sales. Streaming royalties consist of on-demand audio and video streams, and estimated royalties from webcasting, SiriusXM and Music Choice.
The following royalty rates were used: album and track sales, 22% of retail revenue; 66% of wholesale if the artist owns his or her masters. On-demand streaming royalties were calculated using blended audio and video rates of, respectively, $0.0053 and $0.0038 per stream, applied against a 37% superstar-artist royalty rate; 50% for heritage artists (acts that have released at a minimum of 10 albums or been active for at least 20 years); and 79% for artist-owned masters. Further, a blended statutory subscription per-stream rate of $0.0024 was applied to programmed streams and per-play estimated rates of 74 cents for Music Choice and $46 for SiriusXM. Royalties for programmed streams were calculated on a similar basis using a 50% base royalty rate; 68% for artists that own some of their masters and 100% for artists that own all their masters, minus 5% for side performers.
Publishing royalties were estimated using statutory mechanical rates for album and track sales. The Copyright Royalty Board streaming formula produced an average rate of 13.4% of streaming revenue, an average of $2.50 per play for hit songs; $1 per play for heritage spins and genre songs that didn’t attain hit status; and per-play publishing rates of 40 cents for Music Choice, $8.33 for SiriusXM and $0.0003 for programmed streams. A 10% manager’s fee and 4% producer’s fee were deducted from the appropriate revenue streams.
Over the past three years, the music business has become less dependent on the biggest hits, which account for a smaller share of total streams than they once did. Not in December, though. Holiday music is dominated by a relatively small number of big recordings — Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” Bobby Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock,” Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” — and that hasn’t changed since 2019.
So far this season, through Dec. 8, the top 50 holiday songs accounted for 34.3% of all streams from the top 10,000 holiday tracks — the exact same percentage as when Billboard looked at holiday music in Dec. 2019. The share of the top 100, at 46.1%, is just slightly lower than the 46.6% share from 2019 while the shares of the top 250, 500 and 1,000 are all less than one percentage point lower than three years ago.
That’s not surprising. Holiday listening is dominated by a small number of recordings that have become enduring favorites. Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” has reached No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 every year since 2019. The order of the next few songs hasn’t changed either: Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree,” Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock,” Burl Ives’ “Have a Holly, Jolly Christmas,” and Andy Williams’ “It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year.” Other than “All I Want for Christmas,” all of them were recorded before 1964.
New holiday tracks have a hard time breaking through. At 28 years old, Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” is an outlier among tracks that are usually 50 years or older. “Last Christmas” by Wham!, currently fifth in on-demand audio streams, is a relatively youthful 36. At Nos. 8 and 12, Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” and Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” are the babies of the top 10.
Pop music has no use for such tradition, or centrality – especially now that personalization has reduced the number of plays track get from prominent placement on streaming-service playlists. From 2019 to 2022, the share of the top 10,000 on-demand streaming songs devoted to the top 50 went from 10.3% to 5.8%. The share of the top 250 went from 25.5% to 17.5% during that same period, while the share of the top 1000 went from 49.2% to 41.6%.
Christmas is one of the few times – perhaps because most people spend it with friends or family – when we all listen to the same songs.
Since the business of Christmas music is growing so fast – it occupies five of the top ten places on the Billboard Hot 100 this week – we are re-presenting some of our stories from Christmas past. This piece, about the changes in the music business that have made the genre so important, was originally published in 2019.
Five months ago, during the dog days of summer, Sony Music executive Lyn Koppe was already running a 15-person meeting to prepare for Christmas. It wasn’t her first that year, either. Koppe, executive vp global catalog for Sony’s Legacy Recordings, leads a team that every January begins planning how to promote the year’s holiday releases, as well as the company’s evergreen seasonal music. As the sun shone down on Sony’s Manhattan offices, which overlook Madison Square Park, the group tossed around ideas by phone with executives from TikTok and members of Mariah Carey’s management team on how to promote the 25th-anniversary reissue of Carey’s Merry Christmas. Someone from management suggested looping in Carey, whom Koppe says is “very hands-on” about marketing — “the look and feel, timing and strategy.” And, within minutes, the five-octave alto herself had joined the call to chime in on the best way to promote the reissue.
“I think there were a few jaws on the floor,” says Koppe, recalling her TikTok counterparts’ reaction to Carey’s cameo at the meeting. But there was a lot at stake: The singer’s iconic Christmas album has become an annuity for her and Sony, a blue-chip property in a holiday recorded-music business that was worth $177 million in 2018 in the United States alone, estimates Billboard.
Carey understands that even the most enduring albums need promotion. So Koppe’s team of music elves — which included executives from marketing, publicity, A&R and product management — worked with Twitter to create an exclusive video of Carey reading fans’ tweets about her holiday music. They created a video skit to go with an enhanced version of the album for Spotify. And by fall, they were promoting the Last Christmas soundtrack — which includes the Wham! single the movie is named after, as well as other songs by the late George Michael, who was the songwriter of the duo — and working to maintain the visibility of time-honored seasonal hits by Andy Williams, The Ronettes and Elvis Presley. “We make sure they’re not forgotten about,” says Koppe.
This year, at least, there’s little danger of that. For about a century, the business of Christmas music was defined by holiday purchases, which meant that hit recordings were enormously profitable the year they were released but didn’t generate much revenue after a couple of years. Few record stores stocked much older Christmas music, and terrestrial radio doesn’t pay to use recordings in the United States. But because streaming monetizes the ongoing consumption of music rather than an initial purchase, it has changed the concentrated business of Christmas music even more dramatically than the rest of the industry. These changes have also amplified the cumulative advantage of the classic holiday recordings that come up first in search results — whether typed in or voice-requested.
Although it’s hard to get exact figures for the holiday music business, the most popular recordings in the genre generate far more revenue than they did a decade ago. “Last Christmas” by Wham! sold 81,000 tracks in the United States in 2008 — and sold and streamed the equivalent of 706,000 last year, according to Nielsen Music. Older recordings are getting more popular, too: Andy Williams’ “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year,” the third-most-popular holiday recording of 2018, sold 52,000 tracks in 2008 and streamed and sold the equivalent of 839,000 last year. Overall, holiday music accounted for 0.89% of on-demand streams in 2015 and 1.11% last year — and during that time, the overall revenue from on-demand streaming rose from $1.57 billion in 2015 to $5.5 billion in 2018, according to the RIAA.
Most of this Christmas cash goes to a relatively small number of rights holders. Last year, the top 50 holiday recordings accounted for 35.3% of all holiday streaming, while the top 50 pop tracks accounted for just 12% of streaming in that genre. Half of the top holiday track streams go to the top 252 recordings, while half of pop streams go to the top 613 pop tracks. At the top, the rewards are considerable — the top holiday recording of 2018, Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” was streamed almost a quarter as much as the year’s top pop song. But the No. 100 holiday recording on streaming services was streamed less than 10% as much as the No. 100 pop track.
To get a sense of just how much streaming has changed this part of the business, consider that some of the most popular holiday recordings weren’t easily available on traditional CD albums a decade ago. The second-most-popular holiday song in 2018 was “Jingle Bell Rock” by Bobby Helms, a 1950s country artist who aside from that track sold the equivalent of 1,000 albums, including downloads and streaming. Some holiday hits by famous artists weren’t even available on albums: Paul McCartney’s “Wonderful Christmastime,” the Eagles’ “Please Come Home for Christmas” and Bruce Springsteen’s live recording of “Santa Claus Is Coming to Town” were issued as singles, though they’re all available now on compilations.
At a time when streaming is ruled by pop and hip-hop from the past two decades, the list of the top 100 holiday tracks is dominated by the original versions of classic songs, recorded by artists that younger listeners aren’t familiar with: Williams, Helms, Burl Ives (“Have a Holly Jolly Christmas,” the No. 5 most popular holiday recording of 2018) and Gene Autry (“Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer,” No. 9). Helms’ version of “Jingle Bell Rock” is more than 12 times as popular as the second-biggest version, by Hall & Oates. Perhaps it is because holiday music is so associated with tradition, “I don’t know of a rerecording that outperforms the original,” says SiriusXM director of programming Jess Besack.
These songs are like blue-chip stocks: uncool but no less valuable for it. And they’re likely to grow in value, along with streaming revenue in general. “Christmas hits,” says Koppe, “are the gifts that keep on giving.”
Christmas music has been a significant part of the music business for as long as there has been one — and some of the same songs have been popular since the days of wax cylinders. The first known Christmas recording is “Jingle Bells,” cut by the banjo player Will Lyle in 1889. In 1905, Victor Records had a hit with “Silent Night, Hallow’d Night,” an English version of the German hymn “Stille Nacht, Heilige Nacht.” Thirty years later, Bing Crosby made the song an even bigger hit, which was included on the 1940 Decca compilation An Album of Christmas Music — the Now That’s What I Call Christmas! of the 78 rpm era.
Over the next few years, Crosby helped make Christmas big business. His 1942 recording of “White Christmas” sold 600,000 copies that year and 2 million in 1943, according to Crosby biographer Gary Giddins, and it is said to have sold over 50 million copies worldwide — making it the biggest single ever. That recording, plus another take on “Silent Night” and other songs, were released as the Crosby album Merry Christmas, a version of which is still in print today.
Rock changed pop culture, but singers like Presley embraced the season, too: The most popular holiday LP in the United States is his Christmas Album, which has been certified 17-times platinum in various versions. It includes a rendition of “White Christmas” that upset songwriter Irving Berlin so much that he asked radio stations not to play it.
As pop music continued to evolve, Christmas repertoire did too. Kurtis Blow’s “Christmas Rappin’,” released by Mercury Records in 1979, was the first rap single to go gold, with sales of 500,000 (see story, below). In 1987, Run-D.M.C. hit No. 78 on the Billboard Hot 100 with “Christmas in Hollis,” which sampled Clarence Carter’s 1968 soul single “Back Door Santa.” Other holiday music sounded less like the songs on the pop charts: Producer Chip Davis’ new age project, Mannheim Steamroller, hit No. 50 on the Billboard 200 in 1984 with Christmas, and it went on to release 38 holiday albums that all together account for 21.6 million album-equivalent units.
Although streaming has boosted the holiday music sector even more than the overall industry, it’s harder than ever to score a Christmas hit that remains popular year after year. It’s one thing for a new tune to sell, or stream, in its initial year of release — but quite another to show up on the chart every year, like Carey does. “Getting a big hit with a new Christmas song is gold when it happens,” says Kevin Gore, president of global catalog at Warner Music Group (WMG). “But it’s not easy.”
Some acts score with new versions of classics: Pentatonix had 19 of last year’s 200 most popular holiday streaming tracks, and Michael Bublé had the second-most-popular versions of “Have a Holly Jolly Christmas” and “All I Want for Christmas Is You.” But the original recordings are usually far more popular, at least partly because streaming algorithms have turned their familiarity into advantageous positioning. “Original recordings, with years of thumbs-up and listens, definitely tend to rise to the top of our Christmas and holiday stations,” says Alex White, vp music programming and curation at Pandora.
That’s an understatement: Since most streaming services tend to recommend songs that are already popular, especially in response to general search queries like “Christmas music,” Billboard’s Holiday 100 chart has less turnover than the Supreme Court.
For hits that break through, though, the payoff can be extraordinary. Last year, Ariana Grande’s original 2014 track “Santa Tell Me” garnered 82.9 million streams, more than any other original holiday song released this decade. The second-most-popular was Justin Bieber’s “Mistletoe,” also an original, with 58.5 million. Because streaming-service algorithms tend to reinforce popularity, a bit of luck and the right promotion could keep them high on the chart for years to come.
Even by the standards of pop music, holiday hits are unpredictable. Among this year’s candidates: Keith Urban’s “I’ll Be Your Santa Tonight,” which debuted on the Dec. 21 Digital Song Sales chart; the Jonas Brothers’ “Like It’s Christmas,” which reached No. 25 on the Holiday 100 when it came out and was streamed 12.7 million times in the first three weeks following its release; and Taylor Swift’s “Christmas Tree Farm,” which debuted on the Dec. 21 Hot 100. All three are upbeat, with the cozy but celebratory feel of holiday classics. “The Jonas Brothers song captures the good feel of a modern Christmas classic,” says Jeff Moskow, head of U.S. A&R for the Now That’s What I Call Music series, who slotted it after Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” on Now’s Christmas playlist on Spotify.
Even if a song doesn’t outlast December’s snowmen, it could still help the artist that recorded it. Holiday releases are an easy way to keep performers visible at the end of the year, which can only help merchandise sales. “It’s an always-on music business,” says Jay Gilbert, co-founder of Label Logic, a company that provides marketing services for labels and managers. “You need to keep your audience engaged.” And the popularity of Christmas movies means that holiday music often scores lucrative synch placements.
Sometimes, new Christmas songs that debut without much fanfare maintain their popularity surprisingly well. Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” peaked at No. 42 on the Hot 100 when it arrived in 2014 and improved to No. 33 in 2018. Similarly, Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” peaked at No. 78 when it was released in 2013 and rose to No. 44 last year. “I don’t know why some songs stick and some don’t,” says Moskow.
As in the rest of the music business, popularity depends significantly on playlist placement — for both new and old material. Consider “Driving Home for Christmas” by British musician Chris Rea, an original song he wrote that hit No. 11 on the U.K. singles chart in 1988. It took over a decade for it to become a Christmas staple in the United Kingdom, and it’s now on Spotify’s Christmas Hits playlist — even though Rea hasn’t had a song on a U.S. chart since 1990, and most listeners are probably unfamiliar with him. “A song like Chris Rea’s ‘Driving Home for Christmas’ is experiencing a lot more discovery than it would have in a different era,” says WMG’s Gore.
No one wants to leave discovery to chance though, even for established classics. So executives who don’t have stars like Carey to work with are getting creative. Warner made a video for a new recording of “White Christmas” by Bublé, and Universal Music Group’s UMe catalog division hired studios to make animated clips for nine of its classic holiday recordings, including Dean Martin’s “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!” and The Jackson 5’s “I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus.”
“We recognized that there’s an opportunity to develop and extend engagement with our holiday catalog to an underserved audience that primarily accesses music through YouTube,” says UMe president/CEO Bruce Resnikoff. So far, the 1.4 million YouTube views that Frank Sinatra’s “Jingle Bells” racked up in the three weeks between Nov. 4 and Nov. 25 represent a 220% increase over the same period last year.
To younger YouTube users, some of these songs may sound as quaint as the animation looks. But Christmas music has always been driven by collective nostalgia — listeners want a version of “White Christmas” just like the one they used to hear. “If a customer requests a holiday song simply by song title, they likely expect and enjoy the classic recorded version as a return,” says Karen Pettyjohn, senior music curator at Amazon Music.
The more customers enjoy those results, of course, the more likely streaming algorithms are to keep offering them. Which means that songs like Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” could remain popular as long as Christmas itself.
This article originally appeared in the Dec. 21 issue of Billboard.
When Taylor Swift sells the remaining 170,000 tickets for her 52-date Eras tour later this month, the U.S. trek will have generated $591 million in sales, Billboard estimates. The average ticket price is $215, according to concert business sources.
This total will make Swift the highest-grossing female touring artist of all time, according to the Billboard Boxscore chart, topping current title holder Madonna whose Sticky & Sweet Tour (of 2008 and 2009) currently holds the No. 1 slot with a gross of $407 million. Swift’s U.S. tour will also put her in fourth place on the all-time Top Tours chart, which is currently led by Ed Sheeran, whose 2017-2019 Divide shows grossed a total of $776.2 million.
Normally with a tour of this scale, artists share some revenue with a promoter and an agent. In this case, Swift will presumably keep a higher share of revenue, because she’s not represented by one of the major booking agencies and because independent promoter Louis Messina is booking the entire tour and providing some of the services an agency normally would.
Other companies involved in the tour won’t do as well as they normally do, either. Ticketmaster and SeatGeek, which handled sales for the tour, normally allow ticket buyers to sell tickets on their secondary markets and take a percentage of that revenue. (Ticketmaster handled sales for 47 shows, while SeatGeek sold seats for the remaining five.) But Swift would not allow the companies who handled primary ticket sales to also sell secondary market tickets. As well, Swift asked Ticketmaster to help make sure tickets went to fans, rather than scalpers, and the company says it used its Verified Fan technology to reduce the number of tickets on resale sites by 75%.
That’s an expensive decision. Ticketmaster makes a much higher margin on resale tickets than primary tickets, since it keeps all of the fees it charges — typically 10% of the sale price for the seller and another 20% for the buyer. The company still charges a 25% service fee for all primary ticket sales. However, it only keeps a small percentage of that money, $3.50 to $5 per ticket, which for this tour will come out to about $7.6 million to $10.8 million. The rest of the fees normally go to venues and promoters. (Ticketmaster, like most ticketing companies, also charges 2.75% for credit card processing, of which it keeps about 10% and pays the rest to credit card companies. The Eras tour generated approximately $13.8 million in these fees, Billboard estimates.) All told, by the time Ticketmaster sells the remaining 170,000 tickets, the company’s total revenue will add up to between $9 million and $12.9 million.
Ticketmaster’s efforts to fight scalpers means that relatively few tickets wound up on the secondary market – but the ones that did are expensive. A month after the presale, on Dec. 14, the average resale ticket price was $1,425, according to TiqIQ, which tracks secondary ticket sales across multiple marketplaces.
TiqIQ estimates that about 1,100 resale tickets are available per show, out of an average of about 50,000. At an average price of $1,425, that would work out to about $1.6 million worth of tickets per show on the secondary market. Assuming that Ticketmaster would have captured about 15%–20% of those purchases, based on 2018 estimates by the United States Government Accountability Office, that means that the company could have brought in an additional $12.5 million to $16.4 million in revenue, of which Ticketmaster would have kept $3.8 million to $5 million in fees, if Swift had allowed the company to sell tickets on its own secondary market.
SeatGeek, which has a 12% share of the secondary market according to its April earnings report, agreed to turn off resale for the five shows it ticketed on the tour, but not the 47 shows sold by Ticketmaster. (Ticketmaster blocked secondary sales for the SeatGeek shows.) That means SeatGeek could make about $9 million from the Ticketmaster shows it lists on its secondary market, although it missed out on about $960,000 in revenue for not allowing secondary sales on the five shows for which it initially sold tickets.
Working with Swift has benefits beyond the financial, of course. In addition to the prestige of working with an artist of that stature — and enduring the embarrassment of the flubs around the Nov. 15 presale — Ticketmaster will presumably see an increase in app downloads and usage of its digital ticket platform, which has been a priority for the company.
