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2025 Grammys

There are five categories devoted to R&B nestled in the R&B, rap and spoken poetry field at the 67th annual Grammy Awards. Yesterday, we previewed three of them — best R&B performance, best R&B song and best traditional R&B performance. Today, we preview the other two — best R&B album and best progressive R&B album.
Best R&B Album

The upcoming Grammy cycle marks the 30-year anniversary of the best R&B album category, and this year’s contenders range from seasoned veterans to new-gen stars.

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Two previous winners — Chris Brown (2012) and Lalah Hathaway (2017) — are in contention this year. Brown is seeking his third nomination in this category with 11:11 (Deluxe), which reached No. 9 on the Billboard 200 and spawned hits such as “Residuals,” “Sensational” (with Lojay and Davido) and “Summer Too Hot,” which earned a best R&B performance nod at the 2024 Grammys. Hathaway is also looking for her third nod in this category with Vantablack, her first solo studio album in seven years.

Between the Super Bowl and his blockbuster tour, Usher has had a very successful year, so a nod for Coming Home could be in play. Although he’s never competed in this category, he has won best contemporary R&B album (before it was discontinued in 2012) twice (2005 and 2011). Muni Long, who collaborated with Usher on the remix for her Grammy-winning “Hrs & Hrs,” is also a leading contender with her Revenge LP.

Though he won best progressive R&B album for Table for Two in 2022, Lucky Daye lost his previous bids in this category in 2020 (Painted) and 2023 (Candydrip). With Algorithm, his third studio album, the NOLA crooner could earn his third nod for best R&B album. Andra Day (Cassandra), Eric Benét (Duets), BJ The Chicago Kid (Gravy), Ledisi (Good Life) and Tyrese (Beautiful Pain) are all previous nominees in this category who are in contention this year — and all have yet to win. With four nominations to her name, Ledisi is tied with PJ Morton as the artist with the most nominations in this category without a win.

Eric Bellinger (The Rebirth 3: The Party & The Bedroom) and Kehlani (While We Wait 2) have both been previously nominated for best progressive R&B album. A nod in best R&B album for either star would be their first in this category. Kenyon Dixon earned his first solo Grammy nod at the 2024 ceremony, and he could earn a bid here for The R&B You Love.

Two more entries to keep an eye on: Dopamine, Normani‘s long-awaited debut LP, and The Color Purple (Music From And Inspired By), which features contributions from Grammy winners such as Alicia Keys, Fantasia, Tamela Mann, Usher, H.E.R., Coco Jones, Megan Thee Stallion, Missy Elliott, Mary Mary, Rodney “Darkchild” Jerkins, Mary J. Blige and Black Thought.

Our Fearless Forecast

We’re betting on: Coming Home (Usher), Revenge (Muni Long), 11:11 – Deluxe (Chris Brown), Good Life (Ledisi) and Vantablack (Lalah Hathaway).

Best Progressive R&B Album

Since this category was first established in 2013 (originally as best urban contemporary album), four artists have emerged as its most-nominated acts. Beyoncé, Steve Lacy, Terrace Martin and Miguel have each earned three nods. Queen Bey and The Weeknd are tied as the all-time winners in this category, with two wins each.

If Martin can pull off a nomination for his Alex Isley joint album, I Left My Heart In Ladera, he would become the sole most-nominated artist in the category’s history (four). Given his track record here, Martin is a surefire contender, as is NxWorries, the duo comprised of Anderson .Paak and Knxwledge; .Paak is an eight-time Grammy winner, including a win for best R&B album (2019, Ventura) and a nomination for best progressive R&B album (2017, Malibu). Hiatus Kaiyote (Love Heart Cheat Code), Childish Gambino (Bando Stone and The New World) and Kehlani (Crash) are all previous nominees in this category who could each earn their second bids. Chlöe has been nominated here twice as a part of Chloe x Halle, and though her debut LP, In Pieces, was passed over for a nod, she could earn her first solo nomination here for Trouble In Paradise.

Partynextdoor is one of the few artists to send an R&B album to the Billboard 200’s top 10 this year; a nod for Partynextdoor 4 would be his first Grammy nomination since 2017. Bryson Tiller (Bryson Tiller) and Tinashe (Quantum Baby) both had big hits this year with “Whatever She Wants” and “Nasty,” respectively; both are looking for their first nomination in this category. Also keep an eye on Rae Khalil, a .Paak protégé who’s vying for a nod with her debut LP Crybaby, and Ravyn Lenae, a critical darling who’s in contention with Bird’s Eye. And never count out Black Pumas, a band that has reaped seven Grammy nominations — though none have been in the R&B field.

Other artists to look out for: Durand Bernarr (En Route); Lizzen (On the Bus); Louis York (Songs with Friends) and Sampha (Lahai)

Our Fearless Forecast

We’re going with: Terrace Martin & Alex Isley (I Left My Heart In Ladera), Tinashe (Quantum Baby), NxWorries (Why Lawd?), Hiatus Kaiyote (Love Heart Cheat Code), Childish Gambino (Bando Stone and The New World)

There are five categories devoted to R&B nestled in the R&B, rap and spoken poetry field at the 67th annual Grammy Awards. Here, we preview three of them — best R&B performance, best R&B song and best traditional R&B performance. We’ll preview the other two — best R&B album and best progressive R&B album — later this week.
Best R&B Performance

Though a version of the category has existed since the very first Grammy ceremony in 1959, best R&B performance boasts a particularly tumultuous history. The awarded was given out annually until 1968, when additional categories divided by gender were introduced. Women and men would compete in separate R&B performance categories until a major overhaul ahead of the 2012 ceremony that combined the existing categories of best female R&B vocal performance, best male R&B vocal performance, best R&B performance by a duo or group with vocal and best urban/alternative performance.

Since the best R&B performance was streamlined and reintroduced in 2012, just three artists have won twice: Beyoncé (2015 and 2021), Bruno Mars (2018 and 2022) and Anderson .Paak (2020 and 2022). This year six artists have a chance to join that club, including defending champ Coco Jones, Muni Long, Usher, Corinne Bailey Rae, Lalah Hathway and H.E.R.

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Earlier this year, Jones triumphed with her Billboard chart-topping “ICU,” which spent four weeks atop Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay (chart dated May 27, 2023). For the current Grammy cycle, she’s in contention with a pair of tracks: her featured turn on BJ the Chicago Kid‘s “Spend the Night” and her own “Here We Go (Uh Oh).” According to the 2025 Grammys rulebook, an artist can only receive one nomination in best R&B performance, so Jones won’t be able to pull double duty here. Either way, her chances are strong; BJ is a seven-time nominee, while “Here We Go” became her second song to reach the top 10 on Adult R&B Airplay (No. 8).

Usher is another artist who will suffer from the “one nomination per artist” rule. A previous winner for “Climax” back in 2013, he’s back in contention with three songs: his guest appearance on Victoria Monét‘s “SOS (Sex On Sight),” his Color Purple H.E.R. duet “Risk It All,” and his own Pheelz-assisted “Ruin.” Given Monét’s three-Grammy haul at the 2023 ceremony and the chart-topping airplay run of “Risk It All,” either of those two tracks are the A-Town icon’s strongest shots. Similarly, H.E.R. could pull off a nod with either “Risk It All” or Lila Iké’s “He Loves Us Both,” but the former is her best bet.

Corinne Bailey Rae (2012) and Lalah Hathaway (2014) were the first two women to win this category since the 2012 restructuring. Bailey Rae could reap a bid for “Fly Away” (with Eric Benét), while Hathaway could earn a nod for “So in Love.” And then there was Muni Long. The 2023 winner of this category — for her breakout hit “Hrs & Hrs” — is in contention with a live version of one of the year’s biggest R&B crossover hits, “Made for Me,” which reached No. 20 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Several artists could earn their first nods in this category this year, including Tems (“Burning”), Leon Thomas (“Mutt”), Tinashe (“Nasty”), Ravyn Lenae (“One Wish”), Blxst (“Dancing With the Devil”), October London (“She Keeps Calling”), Partynextdoor (“No Chill”) and Normani (“All Yours”).

Some previous Grammy winners and nominees to keep an eye on: SZA (“Saturn”), NxWorries and Thundercat (“Keep Her”), Mary J. Blige and Fabolous (“Breathing”), Childish Gambino (“In the Night”), Chris Brown (“Residuals”), Chlöe and Halle (“Want Me”), Ledisi (“Good Life”), Lucky Daye (“HERicane”), PJ Morton (“Please Be Good”), Terrace Martin, Alex Isley and Robert Glasper (“I Left My Heart In Ladera”), Bryson Tiller (“Persuasion”), Marsha Ambrosius (“One Night Stand”) and Jeymes Samuel, D’Angelo and Jay-Z (“I Want You Forever”).

Our Fearless Forecast

There’s a chance the entire 2024 lineup could repeat, but we’re predicting: “Residuals” (Chris Brown), “SOS (Sex On Sight)” (Victoria Monét & Usher), “Saturn” (SZA), “Made for Me — Live on BET” (Muni Long) and “Keep Her” (NxWorries & Thundercat).

Best R&B Song

For the last five Grammy ceremonies, the nominees for best R&B song and best R&B performance haven’t overlapped much. In fact, the 2022 ceremony is the only instance this decade where three or more songs earned nods in both categories. As a reminder, best R&B song is awarded to the songwriter, while best R&B performance goes to the recording artist.

In addition to the aforementioned tracks, here are a few more songs to look out for. Halle pulled off a surprise nod with “Angel” last year and she could do it again with “Because I Love You,” which was co-written by RAYE. SZA triumphed here with “Snooze” last year, and both she (“Saturn”) and co-writer Leon Thomas (“Mutt”) are in contention this year. Beyoncé is the most-awarded songwriter (five) in this category, and she could earn her 10th nod here with her Dolly Parton-assisted “Tyrant.” Notably, as Parton is not a credited songwriter on “Tyrant,” she would not receive a nomination should the song make the final five. Bruno Mars has won here twice before (2018 and 2022), and he could earn a third nomination in this category thanks to Lucky Daye’s chart-topping “That’s You,” which he co-wrote with Daye and six-time Grammy winner D’Mile.

Since live versions are only eligible in performance categories, Muni Long is contention here with “Ruined Me,” the latest single from her Revenge album. That song has already become her fifth consecutive top 10 hit on Adult R&B Airplay and is gaining traction across social media. Like Long, Tinashe had a crossover R&B hit this year with “Nasty,” which could earn her the first Grammy nod of her career.

Some other names to look out for: Mavis Staples (“Worthy”), Brittany Howard (“I Don’t), Meshell Ndegeocello (“Love”), Sampha (“Only”) and Gary Clark Jr. & Stevie Wonder (“What About The Children”).

Our Fearless Forecast

We’re predicting: “Saturn” (SZA), “Because I Love You” (Halle), “That’s You” (Lucky Daye), “Nasty” (Tinashe) and “Tyrant” (Beyoncé & Dolly Parton).

Best Traditional R&B Performance

Since best traditional R&B performance — a category honoring recordings that adhere to classic R&B/soul sonic signifiers as opposed to more contemporary approaches to the genre — was first awarded in 1999, two artists have emerged as the all-time winners.

Beyoncé and Lalah Hathaway each have three wins to their name in this category. While Queen Bey does not have a song contending here this year, Hathaway could snag her fourth win if her Michael McDonald-assisted “No Lie” scores a nod. There are a number of high-profile duets to keep an eye on here, including Eric Benét and Tamar Braxton (“Something We Can Make Love To”), Chlöe and Ty Dolla $ign (“Might As Well”), Clark Jr. & Wonder (“What About the Children”), Keyon Harrold and PJ Morton (“Beautiful Day”), Kamasi Washington and BJ The Chicago Kid (“Together”) and Louis York and Tamia (“Three Little Words”). The Benét-Braxton team-up received a lot of love in R&B circles, and the Chlöe-Ty link-up highlights the perseverance of traditional R&B amongst the newest generation of crooners.

Muni Long’s name is sure to pop up across the R&B field this cycle, and “Make Me Forget,” which became her first Adult R&B Airplay chart-topper in August, is her entry in this category. Last year’s winners — PJ Morton and Susan Carol (“Good Morning”) — could return with solo songs of their own. Morton is contending with “I Found You,” while Carol entered “Karma.”

Some other names to look out for: Brittany Howard (“I Don’t”), Marsha Ambrosius (“Wet”), Jacob Collier, John Legend and Tori Kelly (“Bridge Over Troubled Water”), Kenyon Dixon (“Can I Have This Groove”), Meshell Ndegeocello (“Love”), Lucky Daye (“That’s You”), NxWorries, Snoop Dogg & October London (“FromHere”) and Usher (“Please U”).

Our Fearless Forecast

Here goes nothing: “That’s You” (Lucky Daye), “FromHere” (NxWorries, Snoop Dogg & October London), “Make Me Forget” (Muni Long), “Bridge Over Troubled Water” (Jacob Collier, John Legend & Tori Kelly) and “No Lie” (Lalah Hathaway & Michael McDonald)

Nicki Minaj‘s Pink Friday 2 topped the Billboard 200 and launched the highest-grossing female rap tour of all time — could it land the rap queen her first Grammy too?
Minaj has been nominated for best rap album twice in the past — in 2012 for Pink Friday and in 2016 for The Pinkprint — making her second-most nominated female rapper in this category behind Missy Elliott, who earned four nods between 1998 and 2006. Since the Recording Academy established best rap album in 1996, only two female rappers have won the honor; as a part of the Fugees, Lauryn Hill won in 1997 for The Score, and Cardi B triumphed with Invasion of Privacy in 2018.

A nod for Pink Friday 2 would mark Minaj’s first non-soundtrack nomination in nearly 10 years. Last year, she earned a pair of nods alongside Ice Spice and AQUA for their “Barbie World” collaboration from the Barbie soundtrack, but she hasn’t been recognized for her own work since The Pinkprint and its tracks earned three nominations at the 2016 ceremony. Notably, Minaj has yet to win a Grammy, but if Pink Friday 2 can repeat its victory at last week’s BET Hip-Hop Awards (Oct. 15), she may finally take home her very first gilded gramophone.

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In addition to Minaj, Elliott, Hill and Cardi, just two other female rappers have earned nominations for best rap album: Iggy Azalea (2015, The New Classic) and Rapsody (2018, Laila’s Wisdom).

This year, a number of female rappers could earn a nomination for best rap album. In fact, the 2025 ceremony could be the first time in Grammy history that multiple female rappers are simultaneously nominated for best rap album. Most of this year’s contending projects by female rappers also made inroads on the Billboard 200, including Doechii‘s Alligator Bites Never Heal (No. 117), Doja Cat‘s Scarlet 2 Claude (No. 4), Flo Milli‘s Fine Ho, Stay (No. 54), GloRilla‘s Ehhtang Ehhthang (No. 18), Ice Spice‘s Y2K! (No. 18), JT‘s City Cinderella (No. 27), Latto‘s Sugar Honey Iced Tea (No. 15), Megan Thee Stallion‘s Megan (No. 3) and Sexyy Red‘s In Sexyy We Trust (No. 17).

Out of those projects, Scarlet, Ehhthang Ehhtang, Megan and Sugar Honey Iced Tea have the strongest shot at a nod since Doja, GloRilla, Megan and Latto are all previous Grammy nominees. GloRilla, in particular, could pull off a nomination here thanks to her dominant year and the well-timed release of her debut studio LP, Glorious, which snagged the largest opening week total for a female rap album in 2024 during the last few days of first-round voting. Keep an eye on Doechii, as well; she has one of the most critically acclaimed hip-hop projects of the year and has been running a steady campaign, which included a recent co-sign from Grammy darling Kendrick Lamar. Of course, voters could opt for a project that didn’t hit the Billboard charts, but still stands on its own merit — Rapsody’s Please Don’t Cry. Already a three-time Grammy nominee, the North Carolina MC could pull off her second nod for best rap album, which would tie her with Minaj as the second-most nominated female rapper in the category.

Outside of the ladies, it was still a characteristically busy year for rap. With six wins to his name in this category, Eminem is the all-time winner here, and he could very well earn his eighth best rap album bid — and first in 10 years! — for his Billboard 200-topping The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce). Ye (the artist formerly known as Kanye West) could extend his record as the second-most nominated (eight) and second-most awarded (four) artist in this category if Vultures 1, his joint album with Ty Dolla $ign, earns a nod. This would be Ty’s first nod in this category. Both Em and Ye are vets, and it’s possible some of their peers join them as nominees this year. Common & Pete Rock are strong contenders with The Auditorium Vol. 1, and Killer Mike could bookend last year’s victory with a nod (and possible win) for Songs for Sinners and Saints. Also look out for Juicy J‘s Ravenite Social Club and Erick the Architect‘s I’ve Never Been Here Before.

Obviously, this year in rap was defined by Lamar — but he doesn’t have an album in contention this cycle. Nonetheless, We Don’t Trust You, the Billboard 200-topping Future–Metro Boomin joint album that served as Trojan horse for Lamar’s blistering “Like That” verse, is the clear frontrunner for a nomination here. This would mark the second nomination for both Future and Metro. Both artists have yet to win this category.

Both J. Cole, a recurring star in the Lamar-Drake showdown, and ScHoolboy Q, Lamar’s former TDE labelmate, could earn their third bids in this category with Might Delete Later and Blue Lips, respectively. Like Future and Metro, both Cole and Q are looking for their first victory here. Big Sean, another blog era big dog, could also earn his very first nod in the category with Better Me Than You. 21 Savage, who was nominated here last year alongside Drake for their Her Loss joint album, could earn his third nomination in this category with American Dream.

Also in contention: Don Toliver‘s Hardstone Psycho and Danny Brown‘s Quaranta.

Our Fearless Forecast

Which hip-hop albums will make the final five? Our predictions are: We Don’t Trust You (Future & Metro Boomin), Vultures 1 (Ye & Ty Dolla $ign), The Auditorium Vol. 1 (Common & Pete Rock), Blue Lips (ScHoolboy Q) and The Death of Slim Shady (Eminem).

If these predictions prove to be correct, this would be the sixth consecutive year that men have locked up all the nominations in this category.

Since the Recording Academy established the Grammy award for best melodic rap performance — named best rap/sung collaboration until 2017, and best rap/sung performance from 2018 to 2020 — in 2002, Rihanna has emerged as the most-nominated (nine) and most-awarded (five) woman in the category. This year, Beyoncé could earn her ninth nod in the category and match Riri’s record.
Of Rihanna’s nine career Grammy wins, five come from this category. She first won alongside Jay-Z for “Umbrella” back in 2008, and followed that up with four more victories: 2010’s “Run This Town (with Jay-Z & Kanye West), 2012’s “All of the Lights” (with West, Kid Cudi and Fergie), 2015’s “The Monster” (with Emninem) and 2018’s “Loyalty” (with Kendrick Lamar).

Beyoncé won this category in 2004 for “Crazy in Love” (with Jay-Z). Her other nominated songs in this category include 2007’s “Deja Vu” (with Jay-Z), 2010’s “Ego” (with West), 2012’s “Party” (with André 3000), 2014’s “Part II” (with Jay-Z), 2017’s “Freedom” (with Lamar) and 2018’s “Family Feud” (with Jay-Z). In 2006, she also earned a nod as a part of Destiny’s Child with “Soldier,” alongside Lil Wayne and T.I.

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This year, Beyoncé is in contention with “Spaghettii,” a country-rap hybrid that features record-breaking newcomer Shaboozey and oft-overlooked country pioneer Linda Martell. Thanks to the combined star power of the names attached and the cultural pull of Cowboy Carter and “A Bar Song,” “Spaghettii” could be Beyoncé’s first victory in this category in more than 20 years. A nod for “Spaghettii” would enable her to tie Rihanna as the most-nominated woman in this category; Shaboozey and Martell would also both earn their first nods in this category.

But what other songs could give “Spaghetti,” which peaked at No. 31 on the Billboard Hot 100, a run for its money? Let’s break down the contenders.

Future and Metro Boomin‘s names will be all over the Grammy ballot thanks to their myriad submissions from We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You, both of which topped the Billboard 200 this year. In this category, they submitted the Weeknd-assisted title track from the latter album. The Weeknd won here in 2022 (“Hurricane”) and Future reigned victorious in 2023 (“Wait for U”), so two out of the three credited artists on “We Still Don’t Trust You” have a favorable history in this category. A nod for the synthy track would be the third for both Future and The Weeknd, and the first for Metro. Tommy Richman‘s No. 2-peaking “Million Dollar Baby” is probably the frontrunner here from a purely commercial standpoint, a nod here would be the first for the Virginia native.

Drake, who is currently tied with Beyoncé as the fourth-most nominated artist in this category, is in contention as a part of Sexyy Red‘s “U My Everything,” which peaked at No. 44 on the Hot 100. A nod here would be Sexyy’s first in any category; she is also in contention for best new artist this year. Justin Timberlake, a five-time nominee and two-time winner here, could score a nod for “Sanctified” (with Tobe Nwigwe).

At the most recent ceremony, Latto made history when “Big Energy” became the first live rendition to earn a nod in this category. This year she’s in contention with “Big Mama,” which could surprise with a nomination despite its No. 92 Hot 100 peak. Some other notable 2024 Hot 100 hits in contention include: Jordan Adetunji and Kehlani‘s “Kehlani” (No. 24), Flo Milli‘s “Never Lose Me” (No. 15), Offset and Don Toliver‘s “Worth It” (No. 90), Toliver, Charlie Wilson and Cash Cobain‘s “Attitude” (No. 58), Quavo and Lana Del Rey‘s “Tough” (No. 33), 21 Savage and Summer Walker‘s “Prove It” (No. 43) and Travis Scott, James Blake and Savage’s “Til Further Notice” (No. 38). A nod in this category would be the first for all aforementioned artists except for Wilson, Scott and 21 Savage. Scott and 21 Savage are both seeking their fourth nominations and first wins in this category, while Wilson is seeking his third nod here. Notably, if “Attitude” pulls off the win, Charlie Wilson would take home his very first Grammy — more than four decades after his first nomination.

Of course, there are some other songs to keep an eye on; their critical acclaim and name recognition can make up for what they lack in commercial success. Those songs include: Anycia and Latto’s “Back Outside”; Big Sean, Thundercat and Eryn Allen Kane‘s “Black Void”; Childish Gambino, Amaarae and Flo Milli’s “Talk My Shit”; Cordae and Anderson .Paak‘s “Summer Drop”; Doja Cat‘s “Acknowledge Me”; Erick the Architect and Lalah Hathaway‘s “Liberate”; Gunna‘s “Bittersweet”; Rapsody and Erykah Badu‘s “3:AM”; ScHoolboy Q and Jozzy‘s “Lost Times”; SiR & .Paak’s “Poetry In Motion”; Tems and J. Cole‘s “Free Fall” and Bryson Tiller‘s “Ciao!”

Keep an especially close eye on “Free Fall” — Tems (2023, “Wait For U”) and Cole (2024, “All My Life”) are the last two winners in this category — as well as “Black Void,” which features Eryn Allen Kane who won best rap song and performance last year for “Scientists and Engineers” alongside Killer Mike, Future and André 3000.

Our Fearless Forecast

So, which five songs could make up the next crop of best melodic rap performance nominees? Our picks are: “Spaghettii” (Beyoncé, Shaboozey & Linda Martell), “We Still Don’t Trust You” (Future, Metro Boomin & The Weeknd), “Free Fall” (Tems & J. Cole), “Attitude” (Don Toliver, Charlie Wilson & Cash Cobain) and “Million Dollar Baby” (Tommy Richman).

It was a historic trip to the Grammy stage for Taylor Swift on Feb. 4, when she accepted her second and final award of the evening: album of the year, for her 2022 blockbuster set, Midnights. The win was her fourth in the category, breaking her out of a four-way tie and leaving her alone in the record books as the performing artist with the most album of the year wins in Grammy history. But by that point in the evening, Swift had already ensured that her fans were thinking more about the future — and perhaps AOTY trophy No. 5.

“I want to say thank you to the fans by telling you a secret that I’ve been keeping from you for the last two years — which is that my brand-new album comes out April 19,” Swift had revealed two hours earlier while accepting her first award of the night (best pop vocal album). “It’s called The Tortured Poets Department.”

A year after that announcement, Swift may indeed end up making more treks to the Crypto.com Arena stage thanks to the record-breaking Poets. While Midnights bowed with a jaw-dropping 1.6 million first-week units upon its October 2022 release (according to Luminate) and topped the Billboard 200 for six weeks — setting off the historic, globe-trotting Year of Taylor that followed in 2023 — it paled in comparison with Poets, which debuted with over 2.6 million units and spent a whopping 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200. Given that Swift has secured AOTY nominations for each of her three brand-new albums released this decade (including two wins, for Midnights and 2020’s folklore, of her four career total), Poets seems a lock for one of the eight AOTY slots at the 2025 ceremony.

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Whether Swift will win, however, is another question entirely — in part because of a remarkably strong and high-profile slate of likely competitors, including one particularly legendary perennial AOTY bridesmaid. But perhaps the most interesting question of all: After four AOTY wins, already unmatched in Grammy history, how much more does Swift really have to gain by adding another such statue to her collection?

While Swift has already triumphed among some strong fields this decade, it’s likely that the category’s 2025 slate of nominees — with its expected mix of huge critical and commercial successes from veteran A-listers and emergent superstars — will be the most formidable she has faced yet. Alex Tear, vp of music programming at SiriusXM and Pandora, mentions Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft), Chappell Roan (The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess) and Sabrina Carpenter (Short n’ Sweet) as strong contenders for the marquee award, calling Carpenter “a force” in particular. “It’s really going to be a highly competitive year,” he says.

Still, the narrative surrounding the AOTY race will likely boil down to two names: Swift and Beyoncé, whose Billboard 200-topping country and Americana pivot, Cowboy Carter, will almost certainly also vie for the prize. Cowboy did only a fraction of Poets’ flabbergasting first-week numbers — though at press time, it still had the year’s second-highest debut total, at 375,000 units — but it received widespread acclaim, as well as immense media attention for its genre explorations and for the music history Beyoncé illuminated on it.

And of course, Carter’s candidacy comes with extra intrigue, given that Beyoncé — one of the most celebrated album artists of her era — has still never won album of the year, despite her four career nods for it (and record 32 total Grammy wins).

One longtime Recording Academy member who considers both Swift’s and Beyoncé’s new albums worthy contenders calls the latter “the prohibitive favorite” due to her careerlong shutout in the category. “I think that there’s a feeling in the industry, which was certainly encouraged via last year’s Grammys” — when her husband, Jay-Z, called attention to her AOTY shutout in a televised speech — “that [Beyoncé] has been overlooked for too long,” the member says.

Swift may well have less at stake in this year’s AOTY race than her storied competitor. In fact, because Swift is at the overall height of her career success and exposure (and therefore at risk of generating a backlash), it’s worth considering whether she stands to lose more than she does to gain by netting a fifth trophy, especially over a competitor with such a strong case — and such a strong sentimental pull for so many.

And public perception about a potential Swift victory could be colored by her own philosophy about the Grammys and awards shows in general. “She looks at record-making as a competitive sport in a way that other artists don’t,” the academy member says. “Other artists are competitive and would like to win Grammys, but she really, like, thinks about that stuff going in [to recording her albums].”

Swift has admitted as much over the years. In 2015, she explained in a Grammy Pro interview that when her Red lost AOTY in 2014 (to Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories), it set in motion her plan to make a more cohesive pop album with 1989, which won the award two years later: “You have a few options when you don’t win an award — you can decide, ‘Oh, they’re wrong…’ [or] you can say, ‘Maybe they’re right,’ ” she said. Similarly, her 2020 documentary, Miss Americana, captured her reaction when her 1989 follow-up, 2017’s Reputation, failed to garner even a nomination in the category: “I just need to make a better record.” (Two albums later, she would win the category again in 2021 for the stylistic left turn folklore.)

Competitiveness, of course, doesn’t equate to outright making Grammy bait, Tear points out — noting that it seems to have inspired Swift to grow artistically, while at the same time, “we’ve grown into her evolving as a person and the choices that she wants to make as an artist… The projects of late are not chasing where the puck is going — it’s already there.”

And though the Recording Academy member gives Beyoncé the edge in this particular race, it simply makes sense to them that the biggest pop star on the planet should be one of the favorites every time she’s in the mix.

“Look, [Swift] is the most popular recording artist on earth, and therefore she’s likely to win more often than not,” the member says, citing the famous Muhammad Ali quote, “It’s not bragging if you can back it up.” And Swift “can do it, God bless her. She should keep doing it. Maybe she’ll win album of the year several more times.”

This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.

Even with all the pop greats and breakout stars likely to be involved in the Grammys in February 2025, one icon seems certain to garner outsize attention: Beyoncé, who is both the winningest artist in the show’s history and a perennial cause célèbre for having never received the marquee Grammy, album of the year.
Bey’s presence on Music’s Biggest Night will be particularly fascinating, since her acclaimed country-Americana pivot set, Cowboy Carter, is at the center of a number of questions about genre — namely, who gets to decide what does and doesn’t constitute country music. Whether Cowboy Carter, its singles and its collaborators are recognized within the country categories will be a major subplot of the awards — one that got even thicker when Beyoncé was shut out entirely from the recently announced nominations for the Country Music Association (CMA) Awards.

But of course, the biggest Grammys question with Beyoncé remains: Will this finally be the year that she wins album of the year? The Recording Academy is under more pressure than ever over the answer, particularly after Jay-Z took the Grammys to task in a speech at the 2024 awards for having never bestowed its most prestigious honor upon his wife.

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Here, four Billboard staffers discuss the most pressing questions concerning Cowboy Carter and the Grammys it hopes to lasso in February.

Will there be a “Beyoncé effect” at the Grammys — recognition for the Black country artists she spotlights on Cowboy Carter?

Paul Grein (Awards Editor): “Blackbiird,” featuring Brittney Spencer, Reyna Roberts, Tanner Adell and Tiera Kennedy, and/or “Spaghettii,” featuring Linda Martell and Shaboozey, could be nominated for best country duo/group performance. The latter would give a nod to Martell, who in 1969 became the first Black woman to play the Grand Ole Opry. And Shaboozey is very likely to be nominated for best new artist and record of the year; “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has done so phenomenally well, it stands on its own.

Gail Mitchell (Executive Director, R&B/Hip-Hop): With Shaboozey — who guests on two Cowboy Carter tracks — recently notching his 12th week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” we’re already seeing the Beyoncé effect. It’s no surprise that he’s poised to score a nomination or two in the country categories and perhaps a best new artist or song and/or record of the year nod. I’m not sure the effect will extend to Grammy recognition for Cowboy Carter’s other featured Black country artists. However, there’s no discounting the heightened visibility that comes with a Beyoncé co-sign: Featured artists Martell, Spencer, Adell, Roberts, Kennedy and Willie Jones all gained significant catalog boosts after the album’s March release.

Melinda Newman (Executive Editor, West Coast/Nashville): Is this like the butterfly effect, where the ripples caused by Cowboy Carter may reverberate and cause seismic shifts down the line? The only artist likely to see any recognition is Shaboozey — and he probably would have gotten it without his Cowboy Carter appearance, given the massive success of “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” though Beyoncé’s seal of approval certainly doesn’t hurt. Besides Spencer, whose January album didn’t get the attention it deserved, most of the wonderfully talented Black women on “Blackbiird” didn’t release anything that popped during this year’s Grammy eligibility period.

Andrew Unterberger (Deputy Editor): I think somewhat unquestionably we will see major recognition for Shaboozey, who was introduced to much of mainstream America through his pair of Cowboy Carter guest appearances — but who also went on to have a bigger solo hit than anything on Cowboy Carter this year with his double-digit-week Hot 100 No. 1, “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” The other guest artists on the album will likely not be major contenders in the same way — best new artist nominations for Spencer and Adell are certainly both possible, but it’s a crowded field there this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both shut out.

At the last Grammys ceremony, Beyoncé’s husband, Jay-Z, accepted the Dr. Dre Global Impact Award with a speech in which he noted that she “has more Grammys than anyone and never won album of the year,” adding that “even by [the Recording Academy’s] own metrics… that doesn’t work.” Is it likely that academy members will remember his words when they vote — and will that help or hurt her chances?

Grein: Jay calling out the Grammys, right there on the Grammy stage, was a moment of high drama. It’ll be remembered — and I believe it will help her cause. Some context that Jay didn’t provide: Several other artists with large numbers of Grammys have never won album of the year, including Jay himself, with 24; Ye, also 24; Vince Gill, 22; and Bruce Springsteen, 20. And four other artists have equaled Bey’s 0-4 record as lead artists in album of the year — Ye; Kendrick Lamar; Lady Gaga, counting her second Tony Bennett collab; and Sting, counting one album with The Police. Also worth noting: The Grammys have gone out of their way to trumpet Bey’s record-setting accomplishments on the Grammy telecast, more than they have for any other artist. Bey is clearly due, even overdue, for an album of the year win. Jay’s comments put considerable pressure on voters to give her the award. Voters should be able to make these never-easy decisions without that kind of outside pressure, but here we are.

Mitchell: It’s been nearly a year since Jay-Z’s impactful comments, so I don’t think it’s likely they’ll be top of mind for most academy voters when they fill out their ballots. Voters are going to choose based on their perceptions of the project overall and its songs. Additionally, Cowboy Carter will be vying against a strong slate of contenders that will likely include Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Taylor Swift.

Newman: While some folks probably didn’t like being chastised that they weren’t voting “correctly,” a lot of voters likely weren’t even aware that Beyoncé had never won album of the year. Country voters are unlikely to nominate her over a core country artist, given how hard it is for country artists to get any recognition in the Big Four categories other than best new artist. If she does get nominated for album of the year, it will be because noncountry voters nominate her.

Unterberger: It did put the squeeze on them a little bit. While pop fans — and the Beyhive in particular — are more than familiar with the narratives around Beyoncé and her history of AOTY snubbery, members of the Recording Academy are more likely to get the message when one of the biggest recording artists in history publicly calls them out over it. But I don’t know if it’ll be enough to get Cowboy Carter over the top.

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Some of the discourse surrounding Cowboy Carter upon its release had to do with whether this really was Beyoncé’s “country album” in the first place. How is the album likely to be treated categorywise, and should we expect the Nashville/country community to show its support on the ballot?

Grein: When the album was released, Beyoncé said, “This ain’t a Country album. This is a ‘Beyoncé’ album.” There probably will be discussion in the screening committee room about which genre album category it should compete in — best country album or best pop vocal album. There was discussion about whether her last album, Renaissance, should be slotted in best pop vocal album or best dance/electronic album. It was classified as dance/electronic and won. I suspect the academy will again follow Beyoncé’s wishes — whatever they may be — in making that call.

It’s not a good sign that the CMA passed over Cowboy Carter in its recently announced nominations, but it’s not necessarily fatal, either. The Chicks’ Taking the Long Way and its single “Not Ready To Make Nice” were passed over for CMA nods in 2006, but went on to win Grammys for album, record and song of the year, as well as two country-specific awards. And even if the Nashville/country community is mixed on Bey’s album, she can garner enough support from other sectors of the academy to win album of the year.

Mitchell: Can Beyoncé earn her fifth album of the year nomination as well as a ninth record of the year nod — a category she’s also never won — and fifth song of the year nomination? Yes, given that these are among the six general-field categories in which all eligible members can vote. But if that comes to pass, can she finally win the coveted album of the year? The optimist in me hopes so, considering Cowboy Carter’s commercial success — it was Beyoncé’s eighth Billboard 200 No. 1 — and the chart inroads it made — she’s the first Black woman to lead Top Country Albums. But what are supposed to truly count are Beyoncé’s artistic and cultural accomplishments — and that’s when the cynical realist in me says, “Hold on.” The album scored zero nominations for the upcoming CMA Awards. And there’s also past history: The academy’s country committee rejected Bey’s “Daddy Lessons” in 2016. It’s not a slam dunk that she will earn nods in the country categories. Bey’s team might even be considering submissions in the Americana categories. Despite concerted efforts in Nashville to level the country playing field, it remains an uphill push for women artists, especially women of color.

Newman: Beyoncé receiving no CMA Award nominations in some ways gives the country community permission to continue to ignore her work in country categories. Plus, given that voters are only allowed to vote in three fields, most noncountry voters aren’t going to spend a vote for her in the country categories. However, plenty of country voters are upset she was not nominated for any CMAs and very well may put her forward. Beyoncé herself said this was not a country album — but whether it’s nominated for best country album feels like it could go either way. Still, Cowboy Carter tracks like “Texas Hold ’Em” or her remake of Dolly Parton’s “Jolene” have better shots at getting country nominations than the album itself.

Unterberger: If the CMA Awards are any indication, Bey might be in a little bit of trouble there. She didn’t receive a single nomination for this year’s awards, while Post Malone, another pop star interloper doing country this year — but one who promoted the set heavily in Nashville and recorded it with many of its biggest stars — secured four, which sent a pretty loud message about the embrace, or lack thereof, of Cowboy Carter in Music Row. I don’t necessarily see that message as racially motivated, but I think the country community has always been very insular and self-celebratory, and when an outsider comes along insistent on doing country their own way, without specifically enlisting the community’s active participation and support, they are quickly othered and often ultimately ignored. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zach Bryan gets shut out in the country categories this year, despite his consistent genre success, for similar reasons.

Cowboy Carter’s commercial performance and critical reception weren’t entirely parallel. How could both affect its nomination chances?

Grein: It did well enough both critically and commercially to be nominated. The album topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks and spawned three top 10 hits on the Hot 100 — the most from any of her albums since I Am… Sasha Fierce, which spawned four. If Cowboy Carter isn’t nominated, it won’t be because it didn’t do well enough.

Mitchell: Commercial performance isn’t supposed to be the main criteria for the peer-voted Grammys. And neither is critical reception, even though both undoubtedly factor somewhat in voter decisions. Cowboy Carter outpaced Renaissance commercially, 407,000 vs. 332,000 equivalent album units, according to Luminate, during their respective biggest streaming weeks. But those doing the streaming aren’t necessarily doing the voting. While some country die-hards didn’t heartily welcome her stepping across the aisle, Cowboy Carter garnered praise like Renaissance and Lemonade before it. Those albums won Grammys in the dance and R&B fields, but none of their general-field nominations — including album of the year. Perhaps the tides will shift perceptibly this year in the wake of the academy recently inviting more than 3,000 music professionals — many of them young, women and/or people of color — to become voting members.

Newman: In recent years, Grammy voters have leaned into commercial albums more than they used to, even though these are awards for artistic merit, not commercial success. That may hurt Cowboy Carter, which got off to a strong commercial start — topping the Billboard 200, as well as Billboard’s Top Country Albums and Americana/Folk Albums charts — before dropping off quickly. Still, Cowboy Carter is seen as a culturally significant album and one that is an important, yet very palatable, lesson about the essential role of Black artists in country music’s history — which may carry some weight among voters.

Unterberger: They might not have been exactly parallel, but I think they were close enough. Cowboy Carter debuted at No. 1 with the year’s biggest non-Taylor Swift first week, and it generated a legitimate No. 1 hit in the culture-capturing “Texas Hold ’Em.” Neither had quite the commercial longevity her fans and supporters might’ve hoped for — “Texas Hold ’Em” fell off the Hot 100 after 20 weeks, and Cowboy Carter failed to generate a real second hit and is currently ranking in the lower half of the Billboard 200 — but both were successful enough that I don’t think any voter could look at Cowboy Carter and go, “Yeah, sure, it got good reviews, but did anyone actually listen to it?” It’s still one of the year’s major pop releases by any measure.

Cowboy Carter isn’t the only foray into country by an ostensibly “noncountry” artist eligible for big Grammy wins this year — there’s also Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion. Are Post and Bey likely to get the kind of Big Four attention that has eluded core country artists in recent years — and who are the artists who could get the same kind of consideration this year?

Grein: I’d be shocked if Beyoncé wasn’t up for album of the year. Post also has a very good chance at a nod. He’s been nominated three times in the category, and F-1 Trillion was a very successful departure for him. The country community appreciated that he put in the time to get to know them and their ways. The academy has been aggressive in recent years about expanding and diversifying its membership, but it hasn’t put that same energy into expanding its Nashville membership. That reflects in the voting. The last country album to be nominated for album of the year was Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour six years ago, which won. As it happens, Musgraves is vying for an album of the year nod again with this year’s Deeper Well. Chris Stapleton, who was nominated in 2015 for Traveller, could also be nominated this year with Higher. Lainey Wilson — the reigning Grammy winner for best country album, for her Bell Bottom Country — is another possibility, for Whirlwind. But that would make five country albums in the mix. We’ve never had more than one country album nominated in any one year. They’re not all going to make it.

Mitchell: It will be interesting to see how Post — a fellow country outlier who partnered with Beyoncé on Cowboy Carter’s “Levii’s Jeans” — fares in the Grammy derby. Judging by the reception and success he’s lassoed with several F-1 Trillion singles, including “I Had Some Help” with country superstar Morgan Wallen, Post has made a smooth transition into this new genre. So it’s not far-fetched that he’ll be competing against Beyoncé and Swift, with whom he partnered on her hit “Fortnight,” in the album, song and record of the year categories that have eluded core country artists. And Wallen could possibly earn another nod and his first Grammy win with “I Had Some Help.” As the genre continues to enjoy its mainstream renaissance, perhaps Wilson, Stapleton and other country stars will find themselves breaking out of the genre-specific corral and charging into the big show.

Newman: F-1 Trillion is a lock for a best country album contender, as is Stapleton’s Higher, and both could land in the final eight for the all-genre album of the year category, even though mainstream voters tend to ignore country. Cowboy Carter’s fate feels a bit fuzzy only because Bey, who has been nominated in this category four times before, faces such strong competition from the likes of Carpenter, Swift, Eilish, Roan and Grande.

Unterberger: I would expect to see both Beyoncé and Post scattered across the major categories — though Post may be hurt a little by his set’s signature hit, “I Had Some Help,” being a collaboration with Morgan Wallen, whose recent history of being ignored by the Grammys indicates his presence still makes the Recording Academy a little squeamish. Aside from them, Zach Bryan’s new The Great American Bar Scene didn’t quite get the attention last year’s self-titled set did, but its “Pink Skies” single has done very well and could be a fringe song of the year contender. If the academy is still willing to treat Megan Moroney as a new artist, she could certainly be a nominee for best new artist. And while he might be a long shot, I’m holding out hope that Luke Combs can parlay the Grammy attention he got last year for his “Fast Car” performance — alongside original artist Tracy Chapman — into a song of the year nod for the thunderous “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from the highly successful Twisters: The Album.

This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.