2025 Grammys
It was a historic trip to the Grammy stage for Taylor Swift on Feb. 4, when she accepted her second and final award of the evening: album of the year, for her 2022 blockbuster set, Midnights. The win was her fourth in the category, breaking her out of a four-way tie and leaving her alone in the record books as the performing artist with the most album of the year wins in Grammy history. But by that point in the evening, Swift had already ensured that her fans were thinking more about the future — and perhaps AOTY trophy No. 5.
“I want to say thank you to the fans by telling you a secret that I’ve been keeping from you for the last two years — which is that my brand-new album comes out April 19,” Swift had revealed two hours earlier while accepting her first award of the night (best pop vocal album). “It’s called The Tortured Poets Department.”
A year after that announcement, Swift may indeed end up making more treks to the Crypto.com Arena stage thanks to the record-breaking Poets. While Midnights bowed with a jaw-dropping 1.6 million first-week units upon its October 2022 release (according to Luminate) and topped the Billboard 200 for six weeks — setting off the historic, globe-trotting Year of Taylor that followed in 2023 — it paled in comparison with Poets, which debuted with over 2.6 million units and spent a whopping 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200. Given that Swift has secured AOTY nominations for each of her three brand-new albums released this decade (including two wins, for Midnights and 2020’s folklore, of her four career total), Poets seems a lock for one of the eight AOTY slots at the 2025 ceremony.
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Whether Swift will win, however, is another question entirely — in part because of a remarkably strong and high-profile slate of likely competitors, including one particularly legendary perennial AOTY bridesmaid. But perhaps the most interesting question of all: After four AOTY wins, already unmatched in Grammy history, how much more does Swift really have to gain by adding another such statue to her collection?
While Swift has already triumphed among some strong fields this decade, it’s likely that the category’s 2025 slate of nominees — with its expected mix of huge critical and commercial successes from veteran A-listers and emergent superstars — will be the most formidable she has faced yet. Alex Tear, vp of music programming at SiriusXM and Pandora, mentions Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft), Chappell Roan (The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess) and Sabrina Carpenter (Short n’ Sweet) as strong contenders for the marquee award, calling Carpenter “a force” in particular. “It’s really going to be a highly competitive year,” he says.
Still, the narrative surrounding the AOTY race will likely boil down to two names: Swift and Beyoncé, whose Billboard 200-topping country and Americana pivot, Cowboy Carter, will almost certainly also vie for the prize. Cowboy did only a fraction of Poets’ flabbergasting first-week numbers — though at press time, it still had the year’s second-highest debut total, at 375,000 units — but it received widespread acclaim, as well as immense media attention for its genre explorations and for the music history Beyoncé illuminated on it.
And of course, Carter’s candidacy comes with extra intrigue, given that Beyoncé — one of the most celebrated album artists of her era — has still never won album of the year, despite her four career nods for it (and record 32 total Grammy wins).
One longtime Recording Academy member who considers both Swift’s and Beyoncé’s new albums worthy contenders calls the latter “the prohibitive favorite” due to her careerlong shutout in the category. “I think that there’s a feeling in the industry, which was certainly encouraged via last year’s Grammys” — when her husband, Jay-Z, called attention to her AOTY shutout in a televised speech — “that [Beyoncé] has been overlooked for too long,” the member says.
Swift may well have less at stake in this year’s AOTY race than her storied competitor. In fact, because Swift is at the overall height of her career success and exposure (and therefore at risk of generating a backlash), it’s worth considering whether she stands to lose more than she does to gain by netting a fifth trophy, especially over a competitor with such a strong case — and such a strong sentimental pull for so many.
And public perception about a potential Swift victory could be colored by her own philosophy about the Grammys and awards shows in general. “She looks at record-making as a competitive sport in a way that other artists don’t,” the academy member says. “Other artists are competitive and would like to win Grammys, but she really, like, thinks about that stuff going in [to recording her albums].”
Swift has admitted as much over the years. In 2015, she explained in a Grammy Pro interview that when her Red lost AOTY in 2014 (to Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories), it set in motion her plan to make a more cohesive pop album with 1989, which won the award two years later: “You have a few options when you don’t win an award — you can decide, ‘Oh, they’re wrong…’ [or] you can say, ‘Maybe they’re right,’ ” she said. Similarly, her 2020 documentary, Miss Americana, captured her reaction when her 1989 follow-up, 2017’s Reputation, failed to garner even a nomination in the category: “I just need to make a better record.” (Two albums later, she would win the category again in 2021 for the stylistic left turn folklore.)
Competitiveness, of course, doesn’t equate to outright making Grammy bait, Tear points out — noting that it seems to have inspired Swift to grow artistically, while at the same time, “we’ve grown into her evolving as a person and the choices that she wants to make as an artist… The projects of late are not chasing where the puck is going — it’s already there.”
And though the Recording Academy member gives Beyoncé the edge in this particular race, it simply makes sense to them that the biggest pop star on the planet should be one of the favorites every time she’s in the mix.
“Look, [Swift] is the most popular recording artist on earth, and therefore she’s likely to win more often than not,” the member says, citing the famous Muhammad Ali quote, “It’s not bragging if you can back it up.” And Swift “can do it, God bless her. She should keep doing it. Maybe she’ll win album of the year several more times.”
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
Even with all the pop greats and breakout stars likely to be involved in the Grammys in February 2025, one icon seems certain to garner outsize attention: Beyoncé, who is both the winningest artist in the show’s history and a perennial cause célèbre for having never received the marquee Grammy, album of the year.
Bey’s presence on Music’s Biggest Night will be particularly fascinating, since her acclaimed country-Americana pivot set, Cowboy Carter, is at the center of a number of questions about genre — namely, who gets to decide what does and doesn’t constitute country music. Whether Cowboy Carter, its singles and its collaborators are recognized within the country categories will be a major subplot of the awards — one that got even thicker when Beyoncé was shut out entirely from the recently announced nominations for the Country Music Association (CMA) Awards.
But of course, the biggest Grammys question with Beyoncé remains: Will this finally be the year that she wins album of the year? The Recording Academy is under more pressure than ever over the answer, particularly after Jay-Z took the Grammys to task in a speech at the 2024 awards for having never bestowed its most prestigious honor upon his wife.
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Here, four Billboard staffers discuss the most pressing questions concerning Cowboy Carter and the Grammys it hopes to lasso in February.
Will there be a “Beyoncé effect” at the Grammys — recognition for the Black country artists she spotlights on Cowboy Carter?
Paul Grein (Awards Editor): “Blackbiird,” featuring Brittney Spencer, Reyna Roberts, Tanner Adell and Tiera Kennedy, and/or “Spaghettii,” featuring Linda Martell and Shaboozey, could be nominated for best country duo/group performance. The latter would give a nod to Martell, who in 1969 became the first Black woman to play the Grand Ole Opry. And Shaboozey is very likely to be nominated for best new artist and record of the year; “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has done so phenomenally well, it stands on its own.
Gail Mitchell (Executive Director, R&B/Hip-Hop): With Shaboozey — who guests on two Cowboy Carter tracks — recently notching his 12th week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” we’re already seeing the Beyoncé effect. It’s no surprise that he’s poised to score a nomination or two in the country categories and perhaps a best new artist or song and/or record of the year nod. I’m not sure the effect will extend to Grammy recognition for Cowboy Carter’s other featured Black country artists. However, there’s no discounting the heightened visibility that comes with a Beyoncé co-sign: Featured artists Martell, Spencer, Adell, Roberts, Kennedy and Willie Jones all gained significant catalog boosts after the album’s March release.
Melinda Newman (Executive Editor, West Coast/Nashville): Is this like the butterfly effect, where the ripples caused by Cowboy Carter may reverberate and cause seismic shifts down the line? The only artist likely to see any recognition is Shaboozey — and he probably would have gotten it without his Cowboy Carter appearance, given the massive success of “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” though Beyoncé’s seal of approval certainly doesn’t hurt. Besides Spencer, whose January album didn’t get the attention it deserved, most of the wonderfully talented Black women on “Blackbiird” didn’t release anything that popped during this year’s Grammy eligibility period.
Andrew Unterberger (Deputy Editor): I think somewhat unquestionably we will see major recognition for Shaboozey, who was introduced to much of mainstream America through his pair of Cowboy Carter guest appearances — but who also went on to have a bigger solo hit than anything on Cowboy Carter this year with his double-digit-week Hot 100 No. 1, “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” The other guest artists on the album will likely not be major contenders in the same way — best new artist nominations for Spencer and Adell are certainly both possible, but it’s a crowded field there this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both shut out.
At the last Grammys ceremony, Beyoncé’s husband, Jay-Z, accepted the Dr. Dre Global Impact Award with a speech in which he noted that she “has more Grammys than anyone and never won album of the year,” adding that “even by [the Recording Academy’s] own metrics… that doesn’t work.” Is it likely that academy members will remember his words when they vote — and will that help or hurt her chances?
Grein: Jay calling out the Grammys, right there on the Grammy stage, was a moment of high drama. It’ll be remembered — and I believe it will help her cause. Some context that Jay didn’t provide: Several other artists with large numbers of Grammys have never won album of the year, including Jay himself, with 24; Ye, also 24; Vince Gill, 22; and Bruce Springsteen, 20. And four other artists have equaled Bey’s 0-4 record as lead artists in album of the year — Ye; Kendrick Lamar; Lady Gaga, counting her second Tony Bennett collab; and Sting, counting one album with The Police. Also worth noting: The Grammys have gone out of their way to trumpet Bey’s record-setting accomplishments on the Grammy telecast, more than they have for any other artist. Bey is clearly due, even overdue, for an album of the year win. Jay’s comments put considerable pressure on voters to give her the award. Voters should be able to make these never-easy decisions without that kind of outside pressure, but here we are.
Mitchell: It’s been nearly a year since Jay-Z’s impactful comments, so I don’t think it’s likely they’ll be top of mind for most academy voters when they fill out their ballots. Voters are going to choose based on their perceptions of the project overall and its songs. Additionally, Cowboy Carter will be vying against a strong slate of contenders that will likely include Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Taylor Swift.
Newman: While some folks probably didn’t like being chastised that they weren’t voting “correctly,” a lot of voters likely weren’t even aware that Beyoncé had never won album of the year. Country voters are unlikely to nominate her over a core country artist, given how hard it is for country artists to get any recognition in the Big Four categories other than best new artist. If she does get nominated for album of the year, it will be because noncountry voters nominate her.
Unterberger: It did put the squeeze on them a little bit. While pop fans — and the Beyhive in particular — are more than familiar with the narratives around Beyoncé and her history of AOTY snubbery, members of the Recording Academy are more likely to get the message when one of the biggest recording artists in history publicly calls them out over it. But I don’t know if it’ll be enough to get Cowboy Carter over the top.
Beyoncé
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Some of the discourse surrounding Cowboy Carter upon its release had to do with whether this really was Beyoncé’s “country album” in the first place. How is the album likely to be treated categorywise, and should we expect the Nashville/country community to show its support on the ballot?
Grein: When the album was released, Beyoncé said, “This ain’t a Country album. This is a ‘Beyoncé’ album.” There probably will be discussion in the screening committee room about which genre album category it should compete in — best country album or best pop vocal album. There was discussion about whether her last album, Renaissance, should be slotted in best pop vocal album or best dance/electronic album. It was classified as dance/electronic and won. I suspect the academy will again follow Beyoncé’s wishes — whatever they may be — in making that call.
It’s not a good sign that the CMA passed over Cowboy Carter in its recently announced nominations, but it’s not necessarily fatal, either. The Chicks’ Taking the Long Way and its single “Not Ready To Make Nice” were passed over for CMA nods in 2006, but went on to win Grammys for album, record and song of the year, as well as two country-specific awards. And even if the Nashville/country community is mixed on Bey’s album, she can garner enough support from other sectors of the academy to win album of the year.
Mitchell: Can Beyoncé earn her fifth album of the year nomination as well as a ninth record of the year nod — a category she’s also never won — and fifth song of the year nomination? Yes, given that these are among the six general-field categories in which all eligible members can vote. But if that comes to pass, can she finally win the coveted album of the year? The optimist in me hopes so, considering Cowboy Carter’s commercial success — it was Beyoncé’s eighth Billboard 200 No. 1 — and the chart inroads it made — she’s the first Black woman to lead Top Country Albums. But what are supposed to truly count are Beyoncé’s artistic and cultural accomplishments — and that’s when the cynical realist in me says, “Hold on.” The album scored zero nominations for the upcoming CMA Awards. And there’s also past history: The academy’s country committee rejected Bey’s “Daddy Lessons” in 2016. It’s not a slam dunk that she will earn nods in the country categories. Bey’s team might even be considering submissions in the Americana categories. Despite concerted efforts in Nashville to level the country playing field, it remains an uphill push for women artists, especially women of color.
Newman: Beyoncé receiving no CMA Award nominations in some ways gives the country community permission to continue to ignore her work in country categories. Plus, given that voters are only allowed to vote in three fields, most noncountry voters aren’t going to spend a vote for her in the country categories. However, plenty of country voters are upset she was not nominated for any CMAs and very well may put her forward. Beyoncé herself said this was not a country album — but whether it’s nominated for best country album feels like it could go either way. Still, Cowboy Carter tracks like “Texas Hold ’Em” or her remake of Dolly Parton’s “Jolene” have better shots at getting country nominations than the album itself.
Unterberger: If the CMA Awards are any indication, Bey might be in a little bit of trouble there. She didn’t receive a single nomination for this year’s awards, while Post Malone, another pop star interloper doing country this year — but one who promoted the set heavily in Nashville and recorded it with many of its biggest stars — secured four, which sent a pretty loud message about the embrace, or lack thereof, of Cowboy Carter in Music Row. I don’t necessarily see that message as racially motivated, but I think the country community has always been very insular and self-celebratory, and when an outsider comes along insistent on doing country their own way, without specifically enlisting the community’s active participation and support, they are quickly othered and often ultimately ignored. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zach Bryan gets shut out in the country categories this year, despite his consistent genre success, for similar reasons.
Cowboy Carter’s commercial performance and critical reception weren’t entirely parallel. How could both affect its nomination chances?
Grein: It did well enough both critically and commercially to be nominated. The album topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks and spawned three top 10 hits on the Hot 100 — the most from any of her albums since I Am… Sasha Fierce, which spawned four. If Cowboy Carter isn’t nominated, it won’t be because it didn’t do well enough.
Mitchell: Commercial performance isn’t supposed to be the main criteria for the peer-voted Grammys. And neither is critical reception, even though both undoubtedly factor somewhat in voter decisions. Cowboy Carter outpaced Renaissance commercially, 407,000 vs. 332,000 equivalent album units, according to Luminate, during their respective biggest streaming weeks. But those doing the streaming aren’t necessarily doing the voting. While some country die-hards didn’t heartily welcome her stepping across the aisle, Cowboy Carter garnered praise like Renaissance and Lemonade before it. Those albums won Grammys in the dance and R&B fields, but none of their general-field nominations — including album of the year. Perhaps the tides will shift perceptibly this year in the wake of the academy recently inviting more than 3,000 music professionals — many of them young, women and/or people of color — to become voting members.
Newman: In recent years, Grammy voters have leaned into commercial albums more than they used to, even though these are awards for artistic merit, not commercial success. That may hurt Cowboy Carter, which got off to a strong commercial start — topping the Billboard 200, as well as Billboard’s Top Country Albums and Americana/Folk Albums charts — before dropping off quickly. Still, Cowboy Carter is seen as a culturally significant album and one that is an important, yet very palatable, lesson about the essential role of Black artists in country music’s history — which may carry some weight among voters.
Unterberger: They might not have been exactly parallel, but I think they were close enough. Cowboy Carter debuted at No. 1 with the year’s biggest non-Taylor Swift first week, and it generated a legitimate No. 1 hit in the culture-capturing “Texas Hold ’Em.” Neither had quite the commercial longevity her fans and supporters might’ve hoped for — “Texas Hold ’Em” fell off the Hot 100 after 20 weeks, and Cowboy Carter failed to generate a real second hit and is currently ranking in the lower half of the Billboard 200 — but both were successful enough that I don’t think any voter could look at Cowboy Carter and go, “Yeah, sure, it got good reviews, but did anyone actually listen to it?” It’s still one of the year’s major pop releases by any measure.
Cowboy Carter isn’t the only foray into country by an ostensibly “noncountry” artist eligible for big Grammy wins this year — there’s also Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion. Are Post and Bey likely to get the kind of Big Four attention that has eluded core country artists in recent years — and who are the artists who could get the same kind of consideration this year?
Grein: I’d be shocked if Beyoncé wasn’t up for album of the year. Post also has a very good chance at a nod. He’s been nominated three times in the category, and F-1 Trillion was a very successful departure for him. The country community appreciated that he put in the time to get to know them and their ways. The academy has been aggressive in recent years about expanding and diversifying its membership, but it hasn’t put that same energy into expanding its Nashville membership. That reflects in the voting. The last country album to be nominated for album of the year was Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour six years ago, which won. As it happens, Musgraves is vying for an album of the year nod again with this year’s Deeper Well. Chris Stapleton, who was nominated in 2015 for Traveller, could also be nominated this year with Higher. Lainey Wilson — the reigning Grammy winner for best country album, for her Bell Bottom Country — is another possibility, for Whirlwind. But that would make five country albums in the mix. We’ve never had more than one country album nominated in any one year. They’re not all going to make it.
Mitchell: It will be interesting to see how Post — a fellow country outlier who partnered with Beyoncé on Cowboy Carter’s “Levii’s Jeans” — fares in the Grammy derby. Judging by the reception and success he’s lassoed with several F-1 Trillion singles, including “I Had Some Help” with country superstar Morgan Wallen, Post has made a smooth transition into this new genre. So it’s not far-fetched that he’ll be competing against Beyoncé and Swift, with whom he partnered on her hit “Fortnight,” in the album, song and record of the year categories that have eluded core country artists. And Wallen could possibly earn another nod and his first Grammy win with “I Had Some Help.” As the genre continues to enjoy its mainstream renaissance, perhaps Wilson, Stapleton and other country stars will find themselves breaking out of the genre-specific corral and charging into the big show.
Newman: F-1 Trillion is a lock for a best country album contender, as is Stapleton’s Higher, and both could land in the final eight for the all-genre album of the year category, even though mainstream voters tend to ignore country. Cowboy Carter’s fate feels a bit fuzzy only because Bey, who has been nominated in this category four times before, faces such strong competition from the likes of Carpenter, Swift, Eilish, Roan and Grande.
Unterberger: I would expect to see both Beyoncé and Post scattered across the major categories — though Post may be hurt a little by his set’s signature hit, “I Had Some Help,” being a collaboration with Morgan Wallen, whose recent history of being ignored by the Grammys indicates his presence still makes the Recording Academy a little squeamish. Aside from them, Zach Bryan’s new The Great American Bar Scene didn’t quite get the attention last year’s self-titled set did, but its “Pink Skies” single has done very well and could be a fringe song of the year contender. If the academy is still willing to treat Megan Moroney as a new artist, she could certainly be a nominee for best new artist. And while he might be a long shot, I’m holding out hope that Luke Combs can parlay the Grammy attention he got last year for his “Fast Car” performance — alongside original artist Tracy Chapman — into a song of the year nod for the thunderous “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from the highly successful Twisters: The Album.
This story appears in the Oct. 5, 2024, issue of Billboard.
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