Author: djfrosty

The music business has earned a reputation for being recession-proof. In bad economic times, people still pay for their music subscription services and want to go to concerts. Some synch opportunities may dry up as advertisers make cutbacks, but overall, the music is a hearty business that doesn’t follow typical economic cycles.
Music business stocks, however, aren’t immune to fluctuations in the market and investors’ worries about the increasingly fragile state of the economy. This week, just three of the 20 companies on the Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) finished with gains, and five stocks had losses in excess of 10%. Despite a host of strong quarterly earnings results in recent weeks, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and Europe have caused markets to panic, taking down music stocks along with the industrial and agricultural companies most likely to be affected.

The S&P 500 entered correction territory on Thursday (March 13) when it closed down 10% from the all-time high. The Russell 2000, an index of small companies, was down 18.4% from its peak. Most stocks improved on Friday (March 14) as markets rallied — despite a decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index — but the first four days of the week were too much to overcome. The S&P 500 finished the week down 2.3% and the Nasdaq composite closed down 2.4%.

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Markets outside of the U.S. fared better than U.S. markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped just 0.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 0.1% and China’s SSE Composite Index improved 1.4%.

Even though 17 of the 20 companies on the BGMI posted losses this week, the index rose 0.5% to 2,460.71 because of Spotify’s 8.1% gain, and the dollar’s nearly 1% increase against the euro offset the weekly declines of 17 other stocks. Spotify is the BGMI’s largest component with a market capitalization of approximately $117 billion — more than twice that of Universal Music Group’s (UMG’s) $50.2 billion. The stock also received rare good news this week as Redburn Atlantic initiated coverage of Spotify with a $545 price target (which implies 5.5% upside from Friday’s closing price) and a neutral rating.

UMG shares fell 8.8% on Friday, a reaction to Pershing Square’s announcement on Thursday that it will sell 50 million shares worth approximately $1.5 billion. Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman called UMG “one of the best businesses we have ever owned.” JP Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven admitted the news was “a near-term negative for confidence” in UMG but saw Pershing Square’s decision to sell shares as a move to take profits and re-weigh its portfolio (UMG was 27% of Pershing Square’s holdings) rather than a commentary about UMG’s long-term potential or recent operating performance. UMG shares ended the week down 8.2% to 25.46 euros ($27.78) but remained up 6.5% year to date. 

Live Nation shares dropped 6.5% to $119.22, marking the stock’s fourth consecutive weekly decline. During the week, Deutsche Bank increased its Live Nation price target to $170 from $150 and maintained its “buy” rating. On Friday, a judge denied Live Nation’s request to dismiss an accusation that the promoter illegally forced artists to use its promotion business if they wanted to perform in its amphitheaters. 

Other U.S.-based live entertainment companies also fell sharply. Sphere Entertainment Co. fell 10.1% to $31.55. MSG Entertainment dropped 1.3% to $31.46 despite Wolfe Research upgrading the stock to “outperform” from “peer perform” with a $46 price target. Vivid Seats, a secondary ticketing platform, fell 28.1% to $2.86 after the company announced fourth-quarter earnings. 

Radio companies, which tend to suffer when economic uncertainty causes advertisers to pull back spending, had yet another down week. iHeartMedia fell 12.0% to $1.61. Cumulus Media dropped 11.5% to $0.46. And SiriusXM, which announced layoffs this week, fell 10.1% to $22.67. Year to date, iHeartMedia is down 24.4% and Cumulus Media is down 40.3%. SiriusXM, on the other hand, has gained 1.4% in 2025. 

K-pop stocks also fell sharply despite South Korea’s market finishing the week with a small gain. HYBE, SM Entertainment, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment had an average decline of 7.4% for the week. Collectively, however, the four South Korean companies have had a strong start to 2025 and, after this week, had an average year-to-date gain of 19.3%.