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There’s little doubt that TikTok drives the discovery of new and unfamiliar music. Exactly how much engagement it creates downstream — at on-demand music streaming platforms — is less clear.  

It’s been roughly two months since Universal Music Group announced its decision to remove its catalog from TikTok after the companies’ licensing agreement ended on Jan. 31. To see if its absence from TikTok has hurt UMG’s streaming numbers, Billboard looked at Luminate’s weekly market shares for UMG, as well as for Sony Music and Warner Music Group, going back to the beginning of 2023.  

The conclusion? Thus far, there’s no clear evidence that UMG’s U.S. market share has been affected by its catalog’s removal from the wildly popular platform. Since the week ended Feb. 8 through the week ended Mar. 28, UMG’s market share has not deviated from what could be considered normal trends. Importantly, the company has not suffered a major blow — either in market share or chart appearances — while absent from TikTok.  

In the eight weeks since TikTok started pulling UMG catalog following the lapse of their licensing agreement, UMG’s overall on-demand audio streaming market share (using a moving four-week average to smooth out fluctuations) dropped 1.8% — not 1.8 percentage points — from 38.72% to 38.02%. Most of that drop came from a 5.8% decline (from 34.42% to 32.43%) in market share of current (less than 18 months old) titles — an entirely normal fluctuation that reflects the ebbs and flows of any music company’s new release schedule. Since early 2023, the eight-week change in UMG’s current market share (again, using a moving four-week average) has dipped more than 5% five times. Sony Music experienced a 5% or greater decline six times. Warner Music Group saw it happen seven times. 

Catalog (music over 18 months old) market share is less driven by music companies’ new release schedules but also tends to see small increases and decreases. In the eight weeks ended March 28, UMG’s catalog market share declined 0.8% (from 40.01% to 39.7%). That wasn’t atypical; WMG dropped 0.9% over the same period. Going back to the beginning of 2023, UMG’s catalog market share gained more than 1% six times and fell by more than 1% four times. UMG’s competitors saw their catalog market shares fluctuate by more than 1% more times than UMG.  

Given the importance of on-demand audio streaming to record labels, a loss in market share would hit UMG in the pocketbook. In 2023, UMG’s record labels received about $6.17 billion in royalties from streaming, according to its 2023 annual report. Just a 5% decline in streaming revenue is worth over $300 million annually. TikTok, on the other hand, is a relatively small part of UMG’s business. The previous licensing deal with TikTok was worth about 1% of UMG’s annual revenue, CFO Boyd Muir stated in the company’s Feb. 28 earnings call — equal to $120 million annually based on 2023’s total revenue. 

TikTok has a well-earned reputation for driving chart success for tracks — from Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” to Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red” — by raising their profiles and creating downstream traffic at on-demand streaming services. A 2023 TikTok study conducted by Luminate found that higher TikTok engagement corresponds with elevated streaming volumes and that U.S. TikTok users are more likely than average consumers to both stream music and subscribe to a music streaming service. TikTok engagement went offline, too: The study found that 38% of TikTok users in the U.S. went to a show in the last 12 months and that 45% bought some merchandise — suggesting higher-than-normal levels of engagement with music.  

But there’s evidence that TikTok is less valuable to music discovery than music streaming services that still offer UMG’s catalog. TikTok users who would potentially discover UMG’s music “still have a lot of ways to find new music and new artists in the absence of TikTok,” MusicWatch managing partner Russ Crupnick tells Billboard via email, “though admittedly it’s an important option.” MusicWatch has found that TikTok users are three times as likely to cite their favorite streaming service as the top source for music discovery as they are TikTok. And two-thirds of TikTok users say music streaming services are a source for hearing new songs and new artists; 49% of TikTok users cite TikTok as a favorite for finding new music.

Still, an absence from TikTok means UMG’s artists aren’t reaching young consumers where they spend much of their time. TikTok is an especially popular option for teens, notes MIDiA Research’s Tatiana Cirisano. A MIDiA survey of U.S. consumers found that 24% of all people surveyed listen to songs they first heard on TikTok on a monthly basis. That number jumps to 52% for 16-to-19-year-olds, and 55% of people in that age group say TikTok is one the top three places where they discover new music — ahead of YouTube (47%) and music streaming services (36%).  

Looking at only streaming market share data does not capture the full picture, though. It’s entirely possible that UMG has been hurt by its absence from TikTok in other ways. If its catalog were available at TikTok, UMG could have had one or more out-of-left-field viral hits thanks to the unsolicited usage of its music by TikTok users. After all, TikTok can surface old music in expected ways.  

What’s more, two months is also too little time to draw any grand conclusions. “The constant fluctuation in release schedules as well as the ever-evolving ways that consumers use social apps mean that it will be necessary to assess over a much longer timescale,” Chaz Jenkins, Chartmetric’s chief commercial officer, tells Billboard in an email. Additionally, Billboard examined market share in the U.S. only. Global market share data would tell a fuller picture.

Besides, some artists have found ways to work around the ban. As Billboard reported in February, artists are doing acoustic versions of songs, speeding up the recordings’ tempos and posting interviews to stay in front of their fans. “Artists impacted by this are just being more creative on TikTok about how they’re getting music out,” said Shopkeeper Management digital marketing manager Laura Spinelli.

For all of TikTok’s promotional value and ability to break hits, the app might be more of a silo than people think: MIDiA also found that 76% of consumers who said TikTok is a main source of music discovery don’t seek information on an artist after finding a song on the app. In other words, what happens on TikTok often stays on TikTok. Let’s see if the impact of UMG’s absence from the app will be just as contained.