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Carpenter signed a deal with Disney Music Group’s Hollywood Records at the age of 14, right before she began co-starring in the Disney Channel series Girl Meets World in 2014; over the next half-decade, she appeared in over 70 episodes of the series, while also releasing four studio albums, embarking on multiple tours and co-starring in a dozen more film and TV projects. Although Carpenter’s current musical stylings are naturally more adult-friendly than her teen output, she spent years cultivating a support base, both as a long-running TV character and as a prolific singer-actor — and as she’s grown up, her fans have as well, and many of them are continuing to root for her.

In early 2021, the lyrics to Olivia Rodrigo’s smash hit “Drivers License” sparked rumors of a real-life love triangle between Rodrigo, her High School Musical: The Musical: The Series co-star Joshua Bassett and Carpenter, with the latter seemingly referenced as “that blonde girl” in the opening verse. Although none of the three artists confirmed the details of the gossip, the success of “Drivers License” trained the spotlight more squarely on Carpenter at a moment in which she was preparing to release new music herself.

Two weeks after the release of “Drivers License,” Carpenter returned with “Skin,” which seemingly responded to Rodrigo’s lyrical barb (“Maybe you didn’t mean it/ Maybe ‘blonde’ was the only rhyme,” she sings) — but, more importantly, set the stage for Carpenter’s next pop era, as a smoldering synth-pop ballad with a strong point of view and a firmly adult tone. The behind-the-scenes intrigue sent “Skin” to No. 48 on the Hot 100, marking Carpenter’s first entry on the chart; anyone paying attention, however, understood that the song’s true value was as a nod toward the evolution of Carpenter’s pop aesthetic.

After releasing four albums as part of Disney Music Group, Carpenter signed a deal with Island Records in 2021, marking a new chapter in her recording career. Although Disney’s Hollywood Records does have adult artists on its roster, Carpenter said at the time that making the leap to a new label provided more creative freedom as she prepared her next project, and that Island “see this record in the same way I see it, and I’m so grateful for that.” Joining a new label home allowed Carpenter to execute her artistic vision more cleanly; now, she has become one of Island’s flagship artists, at a time when the label (also home to Chappell Roan, Remi Wolf and The Last Dinner Party) is reinventing itself as a platform for bold pop voices.

Julia Michaels, the veteran hitmaker and “Issues” singer, contributed heavily to Carpenter’s Island debut, helping to draw out the pop star’s confessional side while understanding how to deploy her more conversational tone. JP Saxe, who scored a smash and song of the year Grammy nom alongside Michaels with “If the World Was Ending,” co-wrote multiple tracks as well, and Carpenter also linked up with Jason Evigan (Demi Lovato’s “Heart Attack,” Dua Lipa’s “Physical”), Amy Allen (Harry Styles’ “Adore You,” Selena Gomez’s “Back to You”) and veteran One Direction studio whizzes Julian Bunetta and John Ryan. It all ensured that when Carpenter did release her first post-Disney music, it was going to have a fantastic pop pedigree.

Released in July 2022, Emails I Can’t Send established Carpenter as a singular voice in contemporary pop, capable of throwing out swiftly catchy hooks on songs like “Nonsense” and “Fast Times” and delivering emotionally resonant lyrics on tracks like “Because I Liked a Boy” and “Skinny Dipping.” Although Emails I Can’t Send didn’t immediately produce a breakout hit, and debuted outside the top 20 on the Billboard 200, the project was one of the better-reviewed pop albums of 2022. It created key critical buy-in following Carpenter’s Disney beginnings, set up long-tail listenership (Emails I Can’t Send has earned 737,000 equivalent album units in the U.S. to date, according to Luminate), and led to some big supporting touring opportunities behind the album. Speaking of which…

Carpenter toured for nearly a year beginning in September 2022, playing a total of 80 headlining shows across four continents and making the connection between her longtime supporters and her new material. She scooped up a lot more listeners thanks to an opening gig that followed: Taylor Swift invited Carpenter on multiple legs of her Eras Tour, where she played to stadium crowds in Mexico, Brazil, Australia and Singapore, among other locations. The larger audiences naturally helped Carpenter’s cause, but so did Swift’s implicit co-sign, as Carpenter got to support the world’s biggest pop superstar on the road — and join her onstage, too.

As Carpenter toured in support of Emails I Can’t Send, “Nonsense,” the cheeky rhythmic-pop showcase on the album, took off on TikTok, with users dancing and lip-synching to the song’s second verse (many of which were re-shared by Carpenter herself). Meanwhile, Carpenter hoisted up the song on the road via its sing-song outro, altering the final lyrics based on the city in which she was performing. Carpenter had been showcasing her tongue-in-cheek side on social media for years, but by leaning into the viral explosion of “Nonsense” and personalizing the song for her live audiences, she helped illustrate that side of her artistic personality more forcefully.

“Nonsense” ended up reaching No. 56 on the Hot 100, and “Feather,” a fluttery dance-pop single included on the deluxe edition of Emails I Can’t Send in 2023, became Carpenter’s first top 40 hit on the chart, climbing to No. 21. Perhaps most important than either of those peaks, however, were the songs’ performance on the Pop Airplay chart — as Carpenter used both to break through at radio and check off an important box for a mainstream artist. While “Nonsense” peaked at No. 10 on Pop Airplay in May 2023, “Feather” reached the top of the chart last month (for the week dated Apr. 6), as Carpenter’s voice became commonplace on some of the biggest FM stations in the country.

While “Espresso,” released last month to coincide with Carpenter’s debut Coachella performance, features the hallmarks of the singer’s past hits, every aspect of her aesthetic has been refined — from the deliriously sunny synth-pop production to the immediately memorable refrains (“That’s that me, espresso” has been rattling around our brains for weeks) to the ultra-confident delivery of Carpenter’s breathy voice. Simply put, “Espresso” hits harder than any previous Carpenter single. Now, it’s an unquestionable smash, accruing 103.2 million streams in a little over a month (according to Luminate), rising all the way to No. 4 on the Hot 100, and positioning itself as a no-brainer song of the summer contender.

“Espresso” will stand as a turning point in her career, but its success didn’t happen overnight — Carpenter has spent years building toward this moment, and now, it’s placed her on the cusp of superstardom.