djfrosty

For most of the last decade, three labels have dominated the U.S. recorded music business: Universal Music Group’s Republic and Interscope, and Warner Music Group’s Atlantic. So on Aug. 1, when Warner announced that as part of a management shakeup it had appointed Elliot Grainge as CEO of Atlantic Music Group, the move came as a surprise. Co-chairmen Julie Greenwald and Craig Kallman had led Atlantic for two decades, through the hardest years of the music business, to become two of the most respected executives in the industry. Now, after two years of declining market share, leadership will pass to a 30-year-old executive who comes from outside the major label system.

Within a week, Greenwald, who had been elevated to chairman of Atlantic Music Group, announced that she plans to leave at the end of January. (Kallman, one of the all-time A&R greats, will stay on as CEO of Atlantic Records, under Grainge.) And the entire business seems to be wondering, What does this mean? It’s a big gamble for WMG CEO Robert Kyncl. Grainge, the son of UMG chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge, has an impressive track record of success on a smaller scale, but not much on the kind of scale major labels usually operate. What’s going on?

The obvious answer is that this is the acceleration of a youthquake in the music business. Streaming payouts are determined disproportionately by younger listeners who spend more time online. The industry’s top executives aren’t getting any younger, and the music business has never been much for succession planning.

One industry executive I spoke with asked sarcastically if I thought Grainge was familiar with Ruth Brown, the R&B icon who had so many hits in the 1950s that Atlantic was nicknamed “the house that Ruth built,” in a nod to Yankee Stadium. I have no idea, but I also know that most young listeners don’t, so, as much as it pains me to say this, maybe that doesn’t matter so much. Greenwald is now regarded as an industry leader, but she wasn’t so much older than Grainge is now when she became president of Island Records in 2002.

Grainge does seem to have a skill for identifying artists who are building an audience online and putting resources behind them in a smart way. Is his 10K Projects, which became part of WMG last year, a model for the label of the future? He hasn’t built the careers of any household-name superstars, which has been the traditional strength of the majors, though some of the acts he signed, like Ice Spice, are still on the rise.

As recently as two years ago, the trend lines seemed clear: Hip-hop was conquering the world, not only growing but also shaping emergent genres from Latin urbano to Afrobeats. Now it’s a bit harder to make sense of what’s working. Pop is getting bigger, but so is country. Latin is growing faster than ever, but tastes are changing there, too. And fans are more fickle than ever. Katy Perry’s comeback is faltering. The new album from Dua Lipa, which seemed like a sure thing, has had a slow start. Are listeners just hungry for new artists? Maybe. But Sabrina Carpenter released her first album before Dua did. Only Taylor Swift endures. As for everyone else, all we are is dust in the wind.

Amid this uncertainty, it’s tempting to think that someone must have the answers — especially if that person is young. Sure, the feeling goes, I don’t understand what’s happening, but I bet that guy does. And maybe he does! Grainge built a successful company by focusing on finding, developing and marketing talent in the digital world. The major labels have generally made bigger bets that paid off, or didn’t, in a bigger way. That’s harder to do now — there are fewer real superstars partly because there are fewer real paths to superstardom.

It may be more important than ever, though. Hit albums remain popular longer than ever, boosting the success of previous music by the same artist. Of the top 10 albums of the first half of 2024, Morgan Wallen had two of them, one each from 2021 and 2023; Zach Bryan’s 2023 album was the 8th biggest of the first half of 2024, so he could well have two of the biggest releases this year. (That top 10 list for the first half of 2024 has only seven artists.)

That’s the kind of success Grainge needs to bring to Atlantic, whether it comes from new acts or old ones, big bets or small ones the label doubles down on, or some combination of the two. All of the questions this raises about the future of the music business — What does this mean? What’s going on? — will be answered, at least to some extent, by how he does at that.