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Sturgill Simpson is keeping it simple for his Why Not? Tour this fall.

The country artist announced on his website in July that although he and his team were “doing everything in our power to keep tickets in the hands of fans and out of the hands of scalpers,” they were opting out of using dynamic pricing for the 37-date run.

Although dynamic pricing is one of the concert business’ most effective tools for keeping tickets off the secondary market, it’s also a major factor in the sharp rise of ticket prices, and Simpson was taking his fans’ wallets into account.

For years, promoters put tickets on sale at a handful of price points, then watched them sell out and get listed with huge markups on the secondary market — revenue that would not accrue to them.

Since then, scalpers have hacked most efforts to foil them, including one of the strategies Simpson is employing: vetting presale buyers. The only proven deterrent has been dynamic pricing: charging what the market will bear during the initial on-sale in hopes of curbing secondary markups.

In the early days of the music industry’s post-pandemic return to live shows, when pent-up demand led to robust sales, dynamic pricing became the go-to strategy for major acts. The move helped lead to a 30% rise in ticket prices from 2019 to 2024, however, according to Billboard Boxscore, with the average ticket price of a top 40-grossing tour jumping $111 to $144 at midyear 2024 — 6.6% in the past six months.

With the pandemic in the rearview mirror, many in the industry express concern about the sustainability of this upswing. In recent weeks, The Black Keys, Jennifer Lopez and other high-profile artists have canceled tours due to backlash over ticket prices. (The Black Keys fired their management in the aftermath.)

According to Billboard Boxscore, only a handful of acts can charge more than $200 a ticket and sell out, and yet more artists are pushing the boundaries on ticket price and quickly approaching average ticket prices between $150 to $200, getting very close to the ceiling of what fans can or will pay.

“Patronage is up — we are seeing more fans come out to shows, but our costs are eating into the increase in volume,” said Morgan Margolin, CEO of Knitting Factory Entertainment, who says agents and managers are charging 30% to 40% more for acts than they did prior to the pandemic.

“It’s getting more difficult to do business in the major markets, especially with minimum wage increases, insurance, rent, and other costs,” he added. “If artists and managers and agents keep escalating on top of those fees, where is the tipping point?”

The Black Keys successfully played U.S. arenas in the past but only a handful. Most of their dates were either festival slots or amphitheater and theater shows. In 2019, they grossed $28 million on their co-headlining Let’s Rock run with Modest Mouse. Tickets for that tour started at $36.50, with four price points under $100. For the band’s canceled International Players Tour, some tickets were priced at $59.75 and $89.75 but others were listed for $119.75, $159.75 and $199.75. In comparison, the bulk of Simpson’s tickets are selling in the $53 to $72 range.

Pricing tickets based on how much scalpers might profit is difficult and risky. If they are overpriced and the tour flops on the initial on-sale, it’s almost impossible to save. Reducing the price can alienate fans who paid the full cost. Stay the course, and if the tour is deemed a loser, fans will avoid it.

“I think a lot of these artists are getting bad advice and not thinking through the long-term consequences of chasing big bucks,” one arena booking executive says. “And that’s going to hurt them in the long run.”

A version of this story will appear in the Aug. 31, 2024 issue of Billboard.