Will Summer Walker, NF or 5 Seconds of Summer Have Next Week’s Biggest Billboard 200 Debut?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Nov. 29, as Taylor Swift and KPop Demon Hunters continue to reign on the chart, a flurry of new albums looks to get in just behind them. 

Summer Walker, Finally Over It (LVRN/Interscope): It’s been four years since R&B star Summer Walker’s previous album Still Over It – twice the time it took in between that set and predecessor Over It – so her new album certainly rates as one of 2025’s most-anticipated. Finally Over It finally arrived on Friday (Nov. 12), with an 18-track, two-disc streaming edition that includes big-name features from Chris Brown, 21 Savage, Doja Cat, Teddy Swims and many more.  

The set has some big numbers to live up to following Still Over It, which became Walker’s first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 when it debuted atop the chart with a career-best 166,000 first-week units. That set was riding momentum from both the slow-building acclaim for the original Over It and a top 40-charting Hot 100 hit lead single in “Ex for a Reason”; it may be tougher for Finally Over It to match that after four years and without a new single (though “Heart of a Woman” did reach No. 57 on the chart in late 2024). 

Tracks from Finally littered the top of the real-time Apple Music chart upon the album’s release, but its presence on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing was more muted — with no songs remaining in the top 200 on the Nov. 18-dated chart — so the album will have to sell in big numbers to threaten the top of the charts. To that end, Walker has released four vinyl editions of the album (with 14 tracks on all physical releases), as well as four CD boxed set editions, each with a branded piece of clothing and a copy of the CD.  

In addition, on Tuesday night Walker released the set’s Cocktail Hour deluxe edition as an Apple/iTunes exclusive for streaming and download — with five audio bonus tracks. She also dropped a The Afterparty deluxe edition of the album to DSPs and download services, which adds three different new tracks to the 18-track set, including a solo version of the original’s Anderson .Paak collab “1-800 Heartbreak.” It might be enough to make Taylor Swift sweat at the very top of the chart, but it should elbow Finally Over It into the discussion for the week’s top debut.  

NF, Fear (NF/Capitol): Don’t count out NF, who hasn’t had a major crossover hit since 2017’s “Let You Down,” but who maintains a very steady chart presence — with a pair of No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, and a No. 2 bow most recently with 2023’s Hope. His latest release isn’t a full-length, but a six-track EP; still, all six tracks debuted in the top 60 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart (including two in the top 10); all six bowed higher than any track from Still Over It.  

The set should also sell well to the rapper’s highly devoted fanbase, with Hope available for purchase in a pair of vinyl variants, a standard CD, and a deluxe CD boxed set (with a T-shirt and CD) — with signed copies of the set previously available on his webstore already sold out. If the set’s streaming performance can remain strong enough to make up for its relatively short track length, it should have a strong chance of a top five debut, and may also contend for the highest-bowing set of next week.  

5 Seconds of Summer, Everyone’s a Star! (Republic): Now a full decade past its initial breakthrough, Australian pop-rock group 5 Seconds of Summer has maintained a respectable mainstream standing by evolving and maturing as it’s progressed. Consequently, it’s managed to reach the top two on the Billboard 200 with each of its first five studio albums, most recently reaching No. 2 with 2022’s 5SOS. 

The band’s new embrace of self-awareness on Friday’s Everyone’s a Star! can be seen both in advance single “Boyband” and the name of its Cool Dad deluxe edition — a webstore exclusive with five additional tracks (including the title track), to go with a separate Fully Evolved deluxe (four bonus tracks, not with “Cool Dad”) and seven additional variants in both vinyl and CD. The surfeit of deluxe editions should help the album reach the Billboard 200’s top 10, though continuing the group’s streak of top twos might be a bit out of reach.