How Big a Deal for Sabrina Carpenter Is ‘Manchild’ Debuting at No. 1?

It’s a highly static week in the Billboard Hot 100‘s top 10 — with one very notable exception, courtesy of pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter.

Helped by an excellent start on streaming, an action-packed music video and a good amount of physical sales on vinyl, Carpenter’s new single “Manchild” bows atop the Hot 100 this week, marking Carpenter’s second No. 1 (after 2024’s “Please Please Please”) and first debut atop the chart. Below it, each of last week’s top nine on the Hot 100 dutifully move down one spot to make room for it.

How big a deal is the No. 1 bow for Carpenter? And how long do we anticipate “Manchild” lasting on top? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Manchild” debuts at No. 1, becoming Sabrina Carpenter’s second No. 1 and first to debut atop the chart. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal would you rate this achievement for her?

Christopher Claxton: I’d rate this a 9. Debuting at No. 1 is a major milestone — and has been anything but stupid, slow or useless. Sabrina’s fan engagement has been steadily growing since she dropped Emails I Can’t Send in 2023, and her continued chart success proves her rising mainstream appeal and streaming power. This is a huge step forward, and Carpenter clearly knows it: “I can’t tell you how much this means to me!!!!” she wrote on her Instagram Story, sharing Billboard’s post announcing her No. 1.

The fact that this marks her second No. 1 and her first to debut at the top shows real momentum in her career — and it’s clear Sabrina Carpenter is a star.

Hannah Dailey: I’d say 8. It’s obviously very exciting, but not at all unexpected for her considering how far she’s come over the past year. 

Kyle Denis: Maybe around 7. It’s kind of wild to call a No. 1 Hot 100 debut a footnote, but it does feel as such in a year that found Sabrina wrapping up her Short N’ Sweet victory lap with her first two Grammy wins and an arena tour extension. While I doubt “Manchild” commands the same cultural gravity as the first three SNS singles when it’s all said and done, this No. 1 debut definitely confirms Carpenter is not a one-era wonder. Her commercial pull as a Main Pop Girl™ is solidified; she’s at that post-2018 Ariana Grande phase where all she has to do is blink and a No. 1 hit is practically guaranteed.  

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Regardless of how high this new single had debuted on the Hot 100, Sabrina Carpenter would still be an A-list pop artist with plenty of interest in her upcoming music; as a relatively new superstar, however, Carpenter had only scored top 10 hits from one album, last year’s Short n’ Sweet, and hadn’t proven that her commercial power would transcend that project. Now she has: with “Manchild” debuting atop the Hot 100, Carpenter has maintained her momentum from her breakthrough 2024, kicking off a quick-turn new era in the strongest possible fashion. She didn’t need a No. 1 debut — but a No. 1 debut is really, really good for her.

Andrew Unterberger: An 8.5. If you haven’t noticed, we don’t have a lot of songs debuting at No. 1 these days — “Manchild” is just the third this year, after Travis Scott’s “4×4” and Morgan Wallen’s Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” and the first from an artist who’s never done that before. It’s another big level-up for Sabrina Carpenter, in an 18-month period with more such level-ups than we can still really count.

2. “Manchild” debuts atop of what is otherwise a static top 10 – with every one of last week’s top nine sliding down one spot to make room for it on top. On another scale of 1-10, how much would you say the top 10 could use its infusion of new blood?

Christopher Claxton: I’d give it an 8 out of 10 — the top 10 definitely needed some fresh energy. Stagnation starts to feel predictable, and the charts have been looking the same for far too long. Fresh entries keep things exciting, and artists might need to start rethinking their rollout strategies and how they’re engaging with their fanbases in order to break through.

Sabrina Carpenter’s debut at No. 1 isn’t just a personal win — it’s a win for all of us. We finally get to see some real movement and a shake-up in the Hot 100.

Hannah Dailey: I guess I’ll give it a 10. I think everyone is still waiting for the undisputed song of the summer to present itself, so any new contender entering the chat is exciting.

Kyle Denis: 10. Desperately. Please. I’m begging. Let’s get “Mutt” and “Love Me Not” in there. “Am I Okay?” too. Hell, I’ll even take “Blue Strips.” 

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Sure, “Manchild” and “What I Want,” the Morgan Wallen-Tate McRae team-up that topped the Hot 100 three weeks ago, are both new hits that will likely receive plenty of pop radio play and millions of streams as summertime wears on. Outside of those two singles and Jessie Murph’s “Blue Strips” at No. 18, every other song in this week’s top 20 has been on the chart for double-digit weeks. Just as “Manchild” kicks off a new Carpenter era, the song that started her last one, “Espresso,” is still at No. 17 on the Hot 100! Here’s to hoping that we get some more new tunes to shake up the upper tier of the chart over the next month.

Andrew Unterberger: Gotta be at least a 9. If “Manchild” falls out of the top 10 before “Lose Control,” “Die With a Smile” or “Beautiful Things,” it’ll be a 10.

3. The new song is thought to be the advance single from Sabrina Carpenter’s recently announced summer album Man’s Best Friend. Does the song take her in any particularly exciting or interesting new directions to you, or is it more a consolidation of established strengths?

Christopher Claxton: “Manchild” is clever and catchy, but it feels more like a continuation of Sabrina Carpenter’s current lane than a bold new chapter. She’s leaning into what works with Jack Antonoff, but I’m hoping she pivots more fully into pure pop on Man’s Best Friend, in the vein of tracks like “Nonsense” and “Feather.” There’s still a hint of country in the delivery of “Manchild” that feels like a leftover from her Short n’ Sweet era — and at this point, she’s more than ready to leave that behind.

Hannah Dailey: Honestly, I don’t think “Manchild” shows us any side to Sabrina that we haven’t seen before. From its flippant tone to its country influences and tongue-in-cheek lyrical themes, everything about “Manchild” feels like a strong continuation of what she was honing on Short n’ Sweet – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. 

Kyle Denis: “Manchild” definitely feels like a purposeful extension of SNS’s country-lite pop sound, which isn’t particularly exciting or interesting, but probably necessary. Not to bring up Grande again, but “Manchild” feels like a spiritual sibling of “Focus,” the 2015 Hot 100 top 10 that initially served as the lead singles for 2016’s Dangerous Woman LP. While I highly doubt “Manchild” faces the same fate as “Focus,” it certainly feels like Carpenter is consciously retreading tried-and-true ground before offering something more markedly difficult on Man’s Best Friend – much like “Focus” reheated Grande’s “Problem” nachos. 

Jason Lipshutz: Whereas Short n’ Sweet hits like “Espresso” and “Taste” offered up danceable pop, the single that Carpenter released in between them, “Please Please Please,” was defined by a singular amalgamation of country, synth-pop, alternative and even disco. “Manchild” functions similarly as a sonic gumbo — part ‘80s synths, part country-fried guitar, part modern pop hooks, and all imbued with Carpenter’s quick-drip wit. Her ability to synthesize different styles, while still maintaining her sense of self, is part of the reason why Carpenter has broken through as a singer and songwriter. I can’t wait to see how else she pulls that trick off on Man’s Best Friend.

Andrew Unterberger: The evolution to me is less in the song than in the music video, which feels like a continuation of the sort of surreal party videos that Diane Martel did for Miley Cyrus in the mid-’10s. It’s Carpenter’s best yet and feels like a new part of her superstar identity being unlocked.

4. Considering we’re not even a year removed from her Short n’ Sweet LP and that songs from that album era are still populating the Billboard Hot 100, some might have wondered if this was a little soon for Carpenter to launch an entirely new album campaign. Does the initial “Manchild” success refute any such notions, or is it still way too early to make any judgments there?  

Christopher Claxton: It’s a fair question. “Manchild” has seen quick success, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it wasn’t too soon to launch a new album rollout. Sabrina Carpenter is clearly striking while the iron’s hot — and so far, it’s working. She’s everywhere right now, fresh off major collaborations with Dunkin’, Fortnite and more. The momentum she’s built over the past year hasn’t slowed down, and while Short n’ Sweet is still producing Hot 100 hits, it seems like she’s aiming to add even more to that list.

The real question is whether introducing new tracks will push her older songs off the charts — or if she’ll simply claim even more spots. You could view this new rollout in two ways: either it’s premature, or it’s a savvy move that leverages her current visibility and cultural relevance. Right now, I’d say it’s the latter, but ultimately, it’s too early to make a definitive call: Whether “Manchild” is just a flashpoint or the beginning of a sustained new era depends on what follows. But all signs point to Sabrina understanding the moment — and running with it.

Hannah Dailey: I personally would have liked to see her take more time to develop a more solidified next chapter and evolve artistically before launching a new album, but I do agree with her when she says there’s no real reason to slow down if the inspiration is still flowing. My only holdup is that “Manchild” is so Short n’ Sweet-coded – it would truly fit so effortlessly on the tracklist – which could dampen Man’s Best Friend’schances of standing out on its own and cast it more as a Short n’ Sweet Part 2. But is that such a bad fate if the success of “Manchild” is any indication of the numbers MBF will pull regardless? Perhaps not. 

Kyle Denis: I would say it’s not too soon for a new SC album campaign – and the initial “Manchild” success backs me up. While SNS was a massive album era, it feels finished. We got three gargantuan singles, several tracks had quasi-viral moments across socials, and she’s currently on a break before the final leg of her accompanying tour. Between the “Manchild” success and the already mind-numbing discourse inspired by the Man’s Best Friend album artwork, I think people have genuinely – and gladly – bought into a new Sabrina Carpenter album campaign. 

Jason Lipshutz: Carpenter coming back so quickly is a stroke of brilliance for an artist trying to establish herself as one of the defining pop voices of the 2020s. Instead of taking a break in 2025 and resting on her laurels following the Short n’ Sweet success, Carpenter has come roaring back with a new hit for the summer, a new album for the fall and (hopefully) plenty of follow-up singles to take her into 2026. Her ambition and release strategy reminds me a bit of her pal Taylor Swift, who, every time you think she’s going to take a breather, has instead stomped on the gas pedal, and gotten even bigger.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s definitely still a risk — even with the early success of “Manchild,” and the fact that it doesn’t look to be falling apart in its second week. It still comes down to whether she can bring enough new on this album era to not feel like she’s repeating herself or spinning her wheels. But if she can do that, the potential upside is enormous: Becoming one of the biggest pop stars in the world in your breakout year and then matching (or even topping) that in year two is the kind of stuff that legendary careers are built from.

5. Make a prediction: How many total weeks will “Manchild” spend atop the Hot 100?

Christopher Claxton: I give it 3-5 weeks.

Hannah Dailey: It’s splashy, catchy and taking off on TikTok – all good signs that “Manchild” will spend at least two weeks at the top, maybe even more. My official prediction is four. 

Kyle Denis: Less than five total weeks. Or maybe forever since the top 10 is so relentlessly stagnant.  

Jason Lipshutz: Let’s say 4. “Manchild” is competing with songs like “Ordinary,” “Luther” and “Die With a Smile” that have a lot more radio buy-in… but as Carpenter proved last year, she can dominate at radio, too! As “Manchild” grows across platforms, I think it’ll ultimately log a nonconsecutive month at No. 1.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say two. But I think it’ll stay in the top 10 for a very long time.