Will Morgan Wallen Be a ‘Problem’ in the Race for the Hot 100 No. 1 Next Week? 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 15, we look at the biggest threats to capture the No. 1 spot after Travis Scott’s “4×4” debuted atop the listing this week. 

Morgan Wallen, “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Perhaps the most consistent artist in the upper stretches of the Billboard charts the past two years has been Morgan Wallen, who has racked up three Hot 100 No. 1s since 2023 (with his own “Last Night” and “Love Somebody” and the Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help”) and another five top 10 hits. On Friday (Jan. 31), he returned with the new single “I’m the Problem,” a bitter song about a toxic relationship that will serve as the lead single and title track for his upcoming fourth album, his first since 2023’s behemoth One Thing at a Time (still in the Billboard 200’s top five nearly two years later). 

Unsurprisingly, “Problem” is off to a strong start on streaming, topping both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the real-time Apple Music chart after its Friday release. The song has started to slide on both listings perhaps a little quicker than expected, with it being replaced by SZA’s Kendrick Lamar-featuring “30 for 30” atop the Apple Music chart and falling all the way out of the top 10 already on the Spotify listing. But it remains in the top 10 on iTunes even after getting passed by a number of Grammy-boosted songs, and it’s off to a hot start at country radio, with over eight million airplay impressions in its first four days of tracking (through Feb. 3), according to Luminate.

“Problem” might not quite have the streaming start to be on the inside track for a No. 1 debut, but it should at least be another top 10 hit for the dominant country superstar.  

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite Lady Gaga being present and performing at the two most high-profile multi-artist gigs of 2025 so far – Thursday’s FireAid concert at the Intuit Dome, where she closed out the multi-hour fundraising event, and Sunday’s Grammys, where she actually performed with Bruno Mars – she did not play her and Mars’ four-week No. 1 at either show. (Gaga and Bruno instead covered The Mamas and the Papas’ ‘60s classic “California Dreamin’” at Music’s Biggest Night.) Nevertheless, the song could get a bump from its win for best pop duo/group performance, and for Gaga’s headline-capturing acceptance speech standing up for the trans community.  

In any event, “Die With a Smile” remains a monster on streaming, sticking in the top 10 on Apple Music and climbing back to No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Songs Top USA chart. It also continues to threaten the reign of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” on radio, though that 27-week Radio Songs No. 1 might not give up that spot so easily. Regardless, its continued strong showing across streaming, sales and radio, it should be a pretty strong contender to return to No. 1 for a fifth frame next week. 

The Weeknd, “Cry for Me” & “Timeless” (w/ Playboi Carti) (XO/Republic): The Weeknd had a pretty enormous weekend, appropriately, as he both released his new album Hurry Up Tomorrow on Friday and then made a surprise return to the Grammys stage on Sunday after essentially boycotting the awards for four years after his After Hours blockbuster was shockingly ignored by the Recording Academy in 2021. The two songs he performed at the Grammys are also the two leading early performers from Tomorrow: “Timeless,” the Playboi Carti teamup that has already reached No. 3 on the Hot 100, and “Cry for Me,” a newly released early-album highlight.  

Both songs should be a factor in the top 10 race next week. “Cry for Me” has the edge on Apple Music, while “Timeless” leads on Spotify – and “Timeless” is obviously ahead on radio, having a months-long head start building airplay (though “Cry for Me” should debut on Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay this week). Neither is likely to be No. 1 next week, but The Weeknd always has tricks up his sleeve to give his hits a little extra boot, so they can’t be totally counted out in the weeks to come.  

Travis Scott, “4×4” (Cactus Jack/Epic): The current No. 1 song on the Hot 100 is likely to have a considerable drop in week two, as the gargantuan first-week sales number the song posted (167,000) inevitably recedes, and the streaming numbers continue to slide. (The song is already out of the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music.) Nonetheless, Travis Scott‘s “4×4” won’t disappear completely, and has started to make gains on radio, with the song expected to jump on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay in its second week, and possibly even make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay.  

Doechii, “Denial Is a River” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): It won’t be a top 10 contender just yet, but the breakout hit from Doechii’s now-Grammy-winning mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal (which she performed, along with “Catfish”) should be the biggest beneficiary from her post-Grammy-night bump in streams and sales — and had already started to make pretty big waves on the charts, climbing to No. 55 on the Hot 100 this week. Radio is starting to kick in for the track as well, with “Denial” also a threat to make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay while shooting up Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. 

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