It’s January, and that can only mean one thing: It’s time to make some predictions about the coming year. We at Billboard have already put our heads together to come up with both predictions — around TikTok, catalogs, Live Nation, mergers, ticket prices, “Streaming 2.0” and emerging markets, among other things — as well as the top stories to watch for 2025: the Diddy trial, streaming fraud crackdowns, AI regulation battles, distribution consolidation, the future of biopics and plenty more.
Suffice it to say, there’s a lot going on in the music business right now. And as the industry gears up for the Grammy Awards this coming Sunday (Feb. 2) — refashioned this year by the Recording Academy as a fundraiser to support wildfire relief in the Los Angeles area — Billboard has released its annual Power 100 ranking of the most powerful executives in the music business. And who better to ask for predictions for 2025 than some of the most powerful people in music?
The below responses, from players across the industry, run the gamut: from tongue-in-cheek slam dunks to thoughtful breakdowns of genre trends and advertising shifts; from how technology will continue to shape how the business of music is conducted to the continued strength of the catalog sales market. Some of these predictions are in line with those selected by Billboard staffers, while others are born out of the passions and expertise of some of the business leaders populating this year’s Power 100. But all are worth a look as the business begins to heat up for a new year.
Let the games begin.
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Tyler Arnold, Mercury Records
More artists will break than we have been seeing in recent years. We saw it with Noah Kahan and this year’s best new artist nominees. Artist development is now a longer process, but if you’re patient, persistent and invest in the right talent, you can have these incredible moments 5-10 years into artists’ careers.
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Scooter Braun, HYBE
New frontiers in technology will bring the artist closer than ever to the fan. Last year alone, our superfan platform Weverse held over 70 online concerts, attracted over 700 million views, sold 18 million pieces of merchandise and released 40 Weverse Albums with 9.4 million unit sales. With artists like Kid Laroi, Ariana Grande, Megan The Stallion and Dua Lipa joining this year, it’s only growing and will continue to do so in 2025.
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Mike Caren, APG
The next generation will shake the tree, and much will come loose.
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Sherrese Clarke Soares, Harbourview Equity Partners
Artistically, I hope to see more experimental mashups. I love seeing Shaboozey crushing the country charts; Post Malone going from pop, to rock, to country music; and K-pop collaborations with artists like Usher, Megan Thee Stallion and Selena Gomez. I really encourage more of these types of mashups, because I believe this is the world Gen Z and Gen Alpha love to live in.
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Tina Davis, EMPIRE
Music is cyclical, which leads to a resurgence of past genres as listeners discover them. I believe rock will continue to grow with the fusion of multiple new sounds and create incredible subgenres. For years there’s been a new superstar who is deeply rooted in rock but implements other sounds — like Lenny Kravitz to artists we’re developing named Blk Odyssy or Santino Le Saint. New listeners are in discovery and will crave a more authentic sound and live music experience — this is where rock will thrive and subgenres will emerge. Rap music will transition into a more conscious space and there will be noticeable pushback from listeners who are seeking out music that offers more depth and introspection to mirror the times. There’s been too many negative things happening in the world and recent legislation has been trying to establish criminal intent with certain rap lyrics so it would be hard for mainstream rap to stay on this trajectory. There will certainly be a cultural shift for a more thought-provoking form of expression.
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David Dunn, Shot Tower Capital
We will continue to see a wider range of music companies accessing the ABS [asset-backed securities] markets and securitizing their royalty streams. The high levels of leverage and interest rates relative to bank financing make the current ABS market exceptionally attractive.
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Daniel Glass, Glassnote Records
Taylor Swift will have a No. 1 album.
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Wendy Goldstein, Republic Records
Artist catalogs will continue to soar, fueled by streaming growth, licensing opportunities and the rising demand for legacy music across platforms.
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Sam Hendel, Dundee Partners
Catalogue will endure. The emotional connection we all have to the songs we love will continue to translate to the longterm value of music copyrights. In 2025, I think we’ll see new ways to monetize fandom, continued progress on the artistic-centric model, and more accessible ways for fans to interact with their favorite music.
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David Israelite, NMPA
Interest in buying catalogs will increase.
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Larry Jackson, gamma.
The independent label market share will eclipse the major label market share for the first time ever. It’s not an indictment of the effectiveness of the latter, but rather just what a majority of the new artists understandably believe in and subscribe to.
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Golnar Khosrowshahi, Reservoir
In 2025, I predict the conversation with AI may shift from questions surrounding the legality of using existing IP to train AI to the proliferation of AI-driven B2B solutions. We could see particularly stark efficiencies achieved for data management — a key facet of the music business.
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Vivien Lewit, YouTube
I do expect that we are likely to see continued consolidation in the independent music business sector.
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Elizabeth Matthews, ASCAP
We will see more cooperation in how we manage metadata as an industry.
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Brian Monaco, Sony Music Publishing
Sonic branding will emerge as a popular offering for songwriters and artists, creating new opportunities for brands to express their identity through music. Each year, people’s lives are becoming more screen-dominant, and brands are seeking new ways to stand out. With a memorable sound, brands can generate emotions that deepen connections with audiences. Brands crafting soundscapes that stick in consumers head, just like a hot song, will be better positioned to break through.
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Ole Obermann, TikTok
Metal and electronic music are the two genres that will grow most in 2025.
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Nat Pastor, Virgin Music Group
There will be a huge global hit that comes from an unexpected territory. For instance, we currently have a global hit with Stromae’s track “Ma Meilleure Ennemie” from the Arcane League of Legends 2 soundtrack. It’s not only the quickest growing French language track in France, but it’s also a top five Global Viral Spotify hit.
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Gregg Perloff, Another Planet Entertainment
Live Nation will do very well and continue to grow market share.